A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolutio...A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.展开更多
Based on China's monthly precipitation data of 629 stations during 1950-2000, we calculated Z indices and separated them into seven Dryness and Wetness grades. Further, a drought area index was proposed to study c...Based on China's monthly precipitation data of 629 stations during 1950-2000, we calculated Z indices and separated them into seven Dryness and Wetness grades. Further, a drought area index was proposed to study changes in drought severity in northern China. The results revealed that the different severity of droughts all showed expanding trends in northern China's main agricultural area. Moreover, the area coverage of droughts in different seasons and different regions displayed different trends.展开更多
A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO 2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink i...A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO 2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.展开更多
The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi...The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi-4-year, quasi-2-year and interannual scales, with the quasi-4-year scale having the highest variability. Depending on the scale, the wind field has a varying degree of association with the SST anomalies. Difference is also found in the evolution of phase. In addition, the work discusses the difference in SSTA resulted from wind fields for quasi-4-year and quasi-2-year components.展开更多
A biogeochemical model(DNDC) is combined with a plant ecological model to estimate N_2O emission from rice paddy fields in the Yangtze River Delta region. The model is driven by local meteorological, soil, and physiol...A biogeochemical model(DNDC) is combined with a plant ecological model to estimate N_2O emission from rice paddy fields in the Yangtze River Delta region. The model is driven by local meteorological, soil, and physiological data and is validated for 1999 and 2000 at a site in the region, which showed that the simulated N_2O emissions agree fairly well with the observed data. This adds some confidence in the estimated N_2O emissions during 1950 and 2000 in the Hangzhou Region. A significant correlation between the N_2O emissions and the population for the Hangzhou Region is found, which is due to a combination of increased application of fertilizers and cultivated area. Such a correlation can not be established for the whole Yangtze River Delta region when the data of both urban and rural areas are included. However, when the data from the heavily urbanized areas are excluded, a significant correlation between population and N_2O emissions emerges. The results show clearly that both the temporal and the spatial N_2O emissions have significant positive relationship with population under traditional farming practice. These results have implications for suitable mitigation options towards a sustainable agriculture and environment in this region.展开更多
Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-clim...Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-climate in- teraction located in the transitional zone over northern China and its surrounding areas, where the vegetation cover change has the most significant influence on summer pre- cipitation over China. Comparison of reanalysis data with station data provides a good method to assess the impacts of land use change on surface temperature, and the most obvi- ous contribution of land use change may be to lead to notable warming over northern China in the interdecadal time scale. Based on the new statistical results, a high-resolution re- gional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS) is employed to investigate the effects of land surface degrada- tion over the transitional zone and its surrounding areas (northern China and southern Mongolia) on the regional climate. Land degradation results in the decreases in pre- cipitation over northern and southern China, and the in- crease in between, and increased and decreased temperature over vegetation change areas and the adjacent area to the south, respectively. Not only would it change the surface cli- mate, but also bring the significant influence on the atmos- pheric circulation. Both the surface climate and circulation changes generally agree to the observed interdecadal anoma- lies over the last five decades. These integrated statistical and simulated results imply that land surface degradation over the transitional zone in northern China and its surrounding areas could be one of the main causes responsible for the climate anomalies over China, especially the drought over northern China.展开更多
This paper summarizes atmospheric aerosol concentrations of 5 stratospheric balloon soundings during the period from 1984 to 1994. Aerosol-rich layers in the troposphere were detected and the causes were analyzed. Th...This paper summarizes atmospheric aerosol concentrations of 5 stratospheric balloon soundings during the period from 1984 to 1994. Aerosol-rich layers in the troposphere were detected and the causes were analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) the vertical distribution of the atmospheric aerosol is affected by atmospheric dynamic processes, humidity, etc.; (2) the tropospheric column concentrations of aerosol were 72.2×105, 20.2×105, 20.7×105 and 34.4×105 cm-2 and occupying 81%, 61% and 60% of the 0-to-30 km aerosol column, on Aug. 23, 1984, Aug. 22, 1993, Sept. 12, 1993 and Sept. 15, 1994, respectively; (3) the effect of volcano eruption was still evident in the aerosol profiles, 28 and 27 months after the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruption; (4) the aerosol concentration in the troposphere did not decrease at all heights as atmospheric aerosol model.展开更多
基金supported by grants from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology(2001BA611B-01)the Chinese Academy of Sciences,and SWECLIM which is financed by MISTRA and SMHI.
文摘A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.
基金The Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology,No.2001BA611B-01National Meteorological Center,ZK2002C-04
文摘Based on China's monthly precipitation data of 629 stations during 1950-2000, we calculated Z indices and separated them into seven Dryness and Wetness grades. Further, a drought area index was proposed to study changes in drought severity in northern China. The results revealed that the different severity of droughts all showed expanding trends in northern China's main agricultural area. Moreover, the area coverage of droughts in different seasons and different regions displayed different trends.
文摘A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO 2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.
基金Experimental Study on South China Sea Monsoon Scaling Project A of national ministry of science and technology
文摘The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi-4-year, quasi-2-year and interannual scales, with the quasi-4-year scale having the highest variability. Depending on the scale, the wind field has a varying degree of association with the SST anomalies. Difference is also found in the evolution of phase. In addition, the work discusses the difference in SSTA resulted from wind fields for quasi-4-year and quasi-2-year components.
文摘A biogeochemical model(DNDC) is combined with a plant ecological model to estimate N_2O emission from rice paddy fields in the Yangtze River Delta region. The model is driven by local meteorological, soil, and physiological data and is validated for 1999 and 2000 at a site in the region, which showed that the simulated N_2O emissions agree fairly well with the observed data. This adds some confidence in the estimated N_2O emissions during 1950 and 2000 in the Hangzhou Region. A significant correlation between the N_2O emissions and the population for the Hangzhou Region is found, which is due to a combination of increased application of fertilizers and cultivated area. Such a correlation can not be established for the whole Yangtze River Delta region when the data of both urban and rural areas are included. However, when the data from the heavily urbanized areas are excluded, a significant correlation between population and N_2O emissions emerges. The results show clearly that both the temporal and the spatial N_2O emissions have significant positive relationship with population under traditional farming practice. These results have implications for suitable mitigation options towards a sustainable agriculture and environment in this region.
基金the Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZKCX2-sw-210)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.G199904308) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40231006).
文摘Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-climate in- teraction located in the transitional zone over northern China and its surrounding areas, where the vegetation cover change has the most significant influence on summer pre- cipitation over China. Comparison of reanalysis data with station data provides a good method to assess the impacts of land use change on surface temperature, and the most obvi- ous contribution of land use change may be to lead to notable warming over northern China in the interdecadal time scale. Based on the new statistical results, a high-resolution re- gional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS) is employed to investigate the effects of land surface degrada- tion over the transitional zone and its surrounding areas (northern China and southern Mongolia) on the regional climate. Land degradation results in the decreases in pre- cipitation over northern and southern China, and the in- crease in between, and increased and decreased temperature over vegetation change areas and the adjacent area to the south, respectively. Not only would it change the surface cli- mate, but also bring the significant influence on the atmos- pheric circulation. Both the surface climate and circulation changes generally agree to the observed interdecadal anoma- lies over the last five decades. These integrated statistical and simulated results imply that land surface degradation over the transitional zone in northern China and its surrounding areas could be one of the main causes responsible for the climate anomalies over China, especially the drought over northern China.
文摘This paper summarizes atmospheric aerosol concentrations of 5 stratospheric balloon soundings during the period from 1984 to 1994. Aerosol-rich layers in the troposphere were detected and the causes were analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) the vertical distribution of the atmospheric aerosol is affected by atmospheric dynamic processes, humidity, etc.; (2) the tropospheric column concentrations of aerosol were 72.2×105, 20.2×105, 20.7×105 and 34.4×105 cm-2 and occupying 81%, 61% and 60% of the 0-to-30 km aerosol column, on Aug. 23, 1984, Aug. 22, 1993, Sept. 12, 1993 and Sept. 15, 1994, respectively; (3) the effect of volcano eruption was still evident in the aerosol profiles, 28 and 27 months after the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruption; (4) the aerosol concentration in the troposphere did not decrease at all heights as atmospheric aerosol model.
