China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has a long history of using High Performance Computing System (HPCS) for over three decades. CMA HPCS investment provides reliable HPC capabilities essential to run Numerical ...China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has a long history of using High Performance Computing System (HPCS) for over three decades. CMA HPCS investment provides reliable HPC capabilities essential to run Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and climate models, generating millions of weather guidance products daily and providing support for Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Monitoring the HPCS and analyzing the resource usage can improve the performance and reliability for our users, which require a good understanding of failure characteristics. Large-scale studies of failures in real production systems are scarce. This paper collects, analyzes and studies all the failures occurring during the HPC operation period, especially focusing on studying the relationship between HPCS and NWP applications. Also, we present the challenges for a more effective monitoring system development and summarize the useful maintenance strategies. This step may have considerable effects on the performance of online failure prediction of HPC and better performance in future.展开更多
In this paper, we present a set of best practices for workflow design and implementation for numerical weather prediction models and meteorological data service, which have been in operation in China Meteorological Ad...In this paper, we present a set of best practices for workflow design and implementation for numerical weather prediction models and meteorological data service, which have been in operation in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for years and have been proven effective in reliably managing the complexities of large-scale meteorological related workflows. Based on the previous work on the platforms, we argue that a minimum set of guidelines including workflow scheme, module design, implementation standards and maintenance consideration during the whole establishment of the platform are highly recommended, serving to reduce the need for future maintenance and adjustment. A significant gain in performance can be achieved through the workflow-based projects. We believe that a good workflow system plays an important role in the weather forecast service, providing a useful tool for monitoring the whole process, fixing the errors, repairing a workflow, or redesigning an equivalent workflow pattern with new components.展开更多
As an important branch of information technology, high-performance computing has expanded its application field and its influence has been expanding. High-performance computing is always a key area of application in m...As an important branch of information technology, high-performance computing has expanded its application field and its influence has been expanding. High-performance computing is always a key area of application in meteorology. We used field research and literature review methods to study the application of high performance computing in China’s meteorological department, and obtained the following results: 1) China Meteorological Department gradually established the first high-performance computer system since 1978. High-performance computing services can support operational numerical weather prediction models. 2) The Chinese meteorological department has always used the relatively advanced high-performance computing technology, and the business system capability has been continuously improved. The computing power has become an important symbol of the level of meteorological modernization. 3) High-performance computing technology and meteorological numerical forecasting applications are increasingly integrated, and continue to innovate and develop. 4) In the future, high-performance computing resource management will gradually transit from the current local pre-allocation mode to the local remote unified scheduling and shared use. In summary, we have come to the conclusion that the performance calculation business of the meteorological department will usher in a better tomorrow.展开更多
This paper describes the construction of a 0.5°× 0.5° daily temperature dataset for the period of 1961- 2005 over China's Mainland for the purpose of climate model validation. The dataset is based o...This paper describes the construction of a 0.5°× 0.5° daily temperature dataset for the period of 1961- 2005 over China's Mainland for the purpose of climate model validation. The dataset is based on the interpolation from 751 observing stations in China and comprises 3 variables： daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. The ＂anomaly approach＂ is applied in the interpolation. The gridded climatology of 1971-2000 is first calculated and then a gridded daily anomaly for 1961-2005 is added to the climatology to obtain the final dataset. Comparison of the dataset with CRU （Climatic Research Unit） observations at the monthly scale shows general agreement between the two datasets. The differences found can be largely attributed to the introduction of observations at new stations. The dataset shows similar interannual variability as does CRU data over North China and eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, but with a slightly larger linear trend. The dataset is employed to validate the simulation of three extreme indices based on daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature by a high-resolution regional climate model. Results show that the model reproduces these indices well. The data are available at the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration, and a coarser resolution （1°× 1°） version can be accessed via the World Wide Web.展开更多
In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are refer...In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.展开更多
Surface relative humidity(RH)is a key element for weather and climate monitoring and research.However,RH is not as commonly applied in studying climate change,partly because the observation series of RH are prone to i...Surface relative humidity(RH)is a key element for weather and climate monitoring and research.However,RH is not as commonly applied in studying climate change,partly because the observation series of RH are prone to inhomogeneous biases due to non-climate changes in the observation system.A homogenized dataset of daily RH series from 746 stations in Chinese mainland for the period 1960–2017,ChinaRHv1.0,has been developed.Most(685 or 91.82%of the total)station time series were inhomogeneous with one or more break points.The major breakpoints occurred in the early 2000s for many stations,especially in the humid and semi-humid zones,due to the implementation of automated observation across the country.The inhomogeneous biases in the early manual records before this change are positive relative to the recent automatic records,for most of the biased station series.There are more break points detected by using the MASH(Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization)method,with biases mainly around?0.5%and 0.5%.These inhomogeneous biases are adjusted with reference to the most recent observations for each station.Based on the adjusted observations,the regional mean RH series of China shows little long-term trend during 1960–2017[0.006%(10 yr)^?1],contrasting with a false decreasing trend[?0.414%(10 yr)?1]in the raw data.It is notable that ERA5 reanalysis data match closely with the interannual variations of the raw RH series in China,including the jump in the early 2000s,raising a caveat for its application in studying climate change in the region.展开更多
The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data. Results show that they correlate very well, ...The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data. Results show that they correlate very well, with the positive （negative） phase of APO tending to increase （decrease） the precipitation over central eastern China. Such a relationship can be explained by the atmospheric circulation changes over Asia and the North Pacific in association with the anomalous APO. A positive phase of APO, characterized by a positive anomaly over Asia and a negative anomaly over the North Pacific in the upper-tropospheric temperature, corresponds to decreased low-level geopotential height （H） and increased high-level H over Asia, and these effects are concurrent with increased low-level H and decreased high-level H over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere are introduced in East Asia, and the low-level southerly wind is strengthened over central eastern China. These changes provide advantageous conditions for enhanced precipitation over central eastern China. The situation is reversed in the negative phase of APO, leading to reduced precipitation in this region.展开更多
In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （...In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.展开更多
Clouds are critical to the global radiation budget and hydrological cycle, but knowledge is still poor concerning the observed climatology of cloud-base height （CBH） in China. Based on fine-resolution sounding obser...Clouds are critical to the global radiation budget and hydrological cycle, but knowledge is still poor concerning the observed climatology of cloud-base height （CBH） in China. Based on fine-resolution sounding observations from the China Radiosonde Network （CRN）, the method used to estimate CBH was modified, and uncertainty analyses indicated that the CBH is good enough. The accuracy of CBH estimation is verified by the comparison between the sounding-derived CBHs and those estimated from the micro-pulse lidar and millimeter-wave cloud radar. As such, the CBH climatology was compiled for the period 2006-16. Overall, the CBH exhibits large geographic variability across China, at both 0800 Local Standard Time （LST） and 2000 LST, irrespective of season. In addition, the summertime cloud base tends to be elevated to higher altitudes in dry regions [i.e., Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain （NCP）]. By comparison, the Tibetan Plateau （TP）, Pearl River Delta （PRD） and Sichuan Basin （SCB） have relatively low CBHs （〈 2.4 km above ground level）. In terms of seasonality, the CBH reaches its maximum in summer and minimum in winter. A low cloud base tends to occur frequently （〉 70%） over the TP, PRD and SCB. In contrast, at most sites over the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） and the NCP, about half the cloud belongs to the high-cloud category. The CBH does not exhibit marked diurnal variation in summer, throughout all CRN sites, probably due to the persistent cloud coverage caused by the East Asia Summer Monsson. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CBH climatology produced from sounding measurements in China, and provides a useful reference for obtaining observational cloud base information.展开更多
Many Chinese people leave big cities for family reunions during the Chinese New Year （CNY）, which is the most important public holiday in China. However, how modem mass human migration during the CNY holiday affects...Many Chinese people leave big cities for family reunions during the Chinese New Year （CNY）, which is the most important public holiday in China. However, how modem mass human migration during the CNY holiday affects the urban heat island （UHI） is still un- known. Here, the authors investigate the role of modem human migration for the UHI effects during the CNY holiday for the period of 1992-2006 in Harbin City, Northeast China. The results show that during the CNY week, the UHI effects expressed as daily mean, maxi- mum, and minimum temperature differences between urban and rural stations averaged over the period of 1992-2006 are 0.65℃ （43%）, 0.31℃ （48%）, and 1.14℃ （71%） lower than during the background period （four weeks before and four weeks after the CNY week）, re- spectively. Our findings identify previously unknown impacts of modem mass human migration on the UHI effects based on a case study in Harbin City.展开更多
Recently,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis(CRA-40)dataset for the period 1979−2018.In this study,surface relative humidity(RH)from CRA-40 and other current reanal...Recently,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis(CRA-40)dataset for the period 1979−2018.In this study,surface relative humidity(RH)from CRA-40 and other current reanalyses(e.g.,CFSR,ERA5,ERA-Interim,JRA-55,and MERRA-2)is comprehensively evaluated against homogenized observations over China.The results suggest that most reanalyses overestimate the observations by 15%−30%(absolute difference)over the Tibetan Plateau but underestimate the observations by 5%−10%over most of northern China.The CRA-40 performs relatively well in describing the long-term change and variance seen in the observed surface RH over China.Most of the reanalyses reproduce the observed surface RH climatology and interannual variations well,while few reanalyses can capture the observed long-term RH trends over China.Among these reanalyses,the CFSR does poorly in describing the interannual changes in the observed RH,especially in Southwest China.An empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis also suggests that the CRA-40 performs better than other reanalyses to capture the first two leading EOF modes revealed by the observations.The results of this study are expected to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current reanalysis products and thus facilitate their application.展开更多
A set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） series at 32 stations in China back to the 19th century had previously been developed based on the RHtest method by Cao et al., but some inhomogeneitie...A set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） series at 32 stations in China back to the 19th century had previously been developed based on the RHtest method by Cao et al., but some inhomogeneities remained in the dataset. The present study produces a further-adjusted and updated dataset based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method. The MASH procedure detects 33 monthly temperature records as erroneous outliers and 152 meaningful break points in the monthly SAT series since 1924 at 28 stations. The inhomogeneous parts are then adjusted relative to the latest homogeneous part of the series. The new data show significant warming trends during 1924-2016 at all the stations, ranging from 0.48 to 3.57℃ （100 yr）^-1, with a regional mean trend of 1.65℃ （100 yr）^-1 ; whereas, the previous results ranged from a slight cooling at two stations to considerable warming, up to 4.5℃ （100 yr）^-1. It is suggested that the further-adjusted data are a better representation of the large-scale pattern of climate change in the region for the past century. The new data axe available online at http：//www.dx.doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.516.展开更多
As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for China's Mainland with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative ...As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for China's Mainland with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km. The approach comprises two steps： （1） fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; （2） apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over China's Mainland. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion （NCEP） Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to analyze the climatic characteristics and long-term spatial and temporal variations of haze occurrence in China. The impact factors of haze trends are also discussed. Meteorological data...The purpose of this study is to analyze the climatic characteristics and long-term spatial and temporal variations of haze occurrence in China. The impact factors of haze trends are also discussed. Meteorological data from 1961 to 2012 and daily PM10 concentrations from2003 to 2012 were employed in this study. The results indicate that the annual-average hazy days at all stations have been increasing rapidly from 4 days in 1961 to 18 days in 2012. The maximum number of haze days occur in winter（41.1%） while the minimum occur in summer（10.4%）. During 1961-2012, the high occurrence areas of haze shifted from central to south and east regions of China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei（Jing-Jin-Ji） region, Shanxi,Shaanxi, and Henan Province are the high occurrence areas for haze, while the Yangtze River Delta（YRD） and the Pearl River Delta（PRD） have become regions with high haze occurrences in the last 25 years. Temperature and pressure are positively correlated with the number of haze days. However, wind, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration are negatively correlated with the number of haze days. The key meteorological factors affecting the formation and dissipation of haze vary for high and low altitudes, and are closely related to anthropogenic activities. In recent years, anthropogenic activities have played a more important role in haze occurrences compared with meteorological factors.展开更多
On 1 April 2017 China established Xiongan New Area in Hebei Province, which was described as ‘a strategy crucial for a millennium to come＇. A point of interest for the public is to be aware of the historical climate...On 1 April 2017 China established Xiongan New Area in Hebei Province, which was described as ‘a strategy crucial for a millennium to come＇. A point of interest for the public is to be aware of the historical climate change in this new area; however, results from previous global-scale or largerregional-scale averages provide relatively limited information because of the distinct regional differences in climate change. This study analyzes the changes in mean and extreme temperature in this area, based on homogenized daily temperature data for the period 1960–2016. The results show a significant warming in the indices of annual, summer, and winter mean temperature（Tmean）, maximum temperature（Tmax）, and minimum temperature（Tmin）. The linear rate of annual Tmean is 0.34 °C/decade. Temperatures on the hottest day, the warmest night, the coldest day, and the coldest night, every year, all show increasing trends, with the trends in the two nighttime-related indices being significant. An increasing occurrence of warm days, warm nights, hot days, and tropical nights, but a decreasing occurrence of cold days, cold nights, icing days, and frost days, are found, all of which are significant, except for the occurrences of hot days and icing days. A significant extension of the length of the thermal growing season is also found. The magnitudes of change in most of the temperature indices in Xiongan New Area are larger than those of the adjacent Jing-Jin-Ji and North China regional mean. These results could provide valuable information for policymakers, city planners, engineers, and migrants to this new area.展开更多
In order to compare the impacts of the choice of land surface model(LSM)parameterization schemes,meteorological forcing,and land surface parameters on land surface hydrological simulations,and explore to what extent t...In order to compare the impacts of the choice of land surface model(LSM)parameterization schemes,meteorological forcing,and land surface parameters on land surface hydrological simulations,and explore to what extent the quality can be improved,a series of experiments with different LSMs,forcing datasets,and parameter datasets concerning soil texture and land cover were conducted.Six simulations are run for the Chinese mainland on 0.1°×0.1°grids from 1979 to 2008,and the simulated monthly soil moisture(SM),evapotranspiration(ET),and snow depth(SD)are then compared and assessed against observations.The results show that the meteorological forcing is the most important factor governing output.Beyond that,SM seems to be also very sensitive to soil texture information;SD is also very sensitive to snow parameterization scheme in the LSM.The Community Land Model version 4.5(CLM4.5),driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters(referred to as CMFD_CLM4.5_NEW),significantly improved the simulations in most cases over the Chinese mainland and its eight basins.It increased the correlation coefficient values from 0.46 to 0.54 for the SM modeling and from 0.54 to 0.67 for the SD simulations,and it decreased the root-mean-square error(RMSE)from 0.093 to 0.085 for the SM simulation and reduced the normalized RMSE from 1.277 to 0.201 for the SD simulations.This study indicates that the offline LSM simulation using a refined LSM driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters can better model reginal land surface hydrological processes.展开更多
The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model ph...The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.展开更多
High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for ...High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for calculating highvertical-resolution wind vectors excessively smooths the data, resulting in significant underestimation of the calculated kinetic energy of gravity waves compared to similar products from other countries, which greatly limits the effective utilization of the data. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to calculate high-vertical-resolution wind vectors that utilizes the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and slant range from L-band radar. In order to obtain wind data with a stable quality, a two-step automatic quality control procedure, including the RMSE-F(root-mean-square error F) test and elemental consistency test are first applied to the slant range data, to eliminate continuous erroneous data caused by unstable signals or radar malfunctions. Then, a wind calculation scheme based on a sliding second-order polynomial fitting is utilized to derive the high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors. The evaluation results demonstrate that the wind data obtained through the proposed method show a high level of consistency with the high-resolution wind data observed using the Vaisala Global Positioning System and the data observed by the new Beidou Navigation Sounding System. The calculation of the kinetic energy of gravity waves in the recalculated wind data also reaches a level comparable to the Vaisala observations.展开更多
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height field are obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. On a seasonal-to-interan...Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height field are obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. On a seasonal-to-interannual time scale, the predictability is low in the lower troposphere and high in the mid-upper troposphere. However, within mid-upper troposphere over the subtropics ocean area, there is a relatively poor predictability. These conclusions also fit the seasonal time scale. Moving to the interannual time scale, the predictability becomes high in the lower troposphere and low in the mid-upper troposphere, contrary to the former case. On the whole the interannual trend is more predictable than the seasonal trend. The average information loss rate is low over the mid-east Pacific, west of North America, Atlantic and Eurasia, and the atmosphere over other places has a relatively high information loss rate on all-time scales. Two channels are found steadily over the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean in subtropics. There are also unstable channels. The four- season influence on predictability and information communication are studied. The predictability is low, no matter which season data are removed and each season plays an important role in the existence of the channels, except for the winter. The predictability and teleconnections are paramount issues in atmospheric science, and the teleconnections may be established by communication channels. So, this work is interesting since it reveals the vertical structure of predictability distribution, channel locations, and the contributions of different time scales to them and their variations under different seasons.展开更多
Abrupt temperature volatility has detrimental effects on daily activities,macroeconomic growth,and human health.Predicting abrupt temperature volatility and thus diminishing its negative impacts can be achieved by exp...Abrupt temperature volatility has detrimental effects on daily activities,macroeconomic growth,and human health.Predicting abrupt temperature volatility and thus diminishing its negative impacts can be achieved by exploring homogeneous regions of temperature volatility and analyzing the driving factors.To investigate the regionalization of temperature volatility in China's mainland,a network constructed by the cosine similarity of temperature volatility series from China's mainland was embedded in hyperbolic space.Subsequently,we partitioned the network on the hyperbolic map using the critical gap method and then found eight regions in all.Ultimately,a network of communities was constructed while the interaction among communities was quantified.This yields a perspective of temperature volatility regionalization that can accurately reflect factors including altitude,climate type,and the geographic location of mountains.Further analysis demonstrates that the regionalization in the hyperbolic map is distinct from provinces and has a realistic basis:communities in southwest China show strong correlations due to the temperature sensitivity to altitude,and communities in northern China show a convergence in the area of Dingxi,Gansu,mainly owing to the strong temperature sensitivity to climate types.As a consequence,node distributions and community divisions in the hyperbolic map can offer new insights into the regionalization of temperature volatility in China's mainland.The results demonstrate the potential of hyperbolic embedding of complex networks in forecasting future node associations in real-world data.展开更多
文摘China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has a long history of using High Performance Computing System (HPCS) for over three decades. CMA HPCS investment provides reliable HPC capabilities essential to run Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and climate models, generating millions of weather guidance products daily and providing support for Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Monitoring the HPCS and analyzing the resource usage can improve the performance and reliability for our users, which require a good understanding of failure characteristics. Large-scale studies of failures in real production systems are scarce. This paper collects, analyzes and studies all the failures occurring during the HPC operation period, especially focusing on studying the relationship between HPCS and NWP applications. Also, we present the challenges for a more effective monitoring system development and summarize the useful maintenance strategies. This step may have considerable effects on the performance of online failure prediction of HPC and better performance in future.
文摘In this paper, we present a set of best practices for workflow design and implementation for numerical weather prediction models and meteorological data service, which have been in operation in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for years and have been proven effective in reliably managing the complexities of large-scale meteorological related workflows. Based on the previous work on the platforms, we argue that a minimum set of guidelines including workflow scheme, module design, implementation standards and maintenance consideration during the whole establishment of the platform are highly recommended, serving to reduce the need for future maintenance and adjustment. A significant gain in performance can be achieved through the workflow-based projects. We believe that a good workflow system plays an important role in the weather forecast service, providing a useful tool for monitoring the whole process, fixing the errors, repairing a workflow, or redesigning an equivalent workflow pattern with new components.
文摘As an important branch of information technology, high-performance computing has expanded its application field and its influence has been expanding. High-performance computing is always a key area of application in meteorology. We used field research and literature review methods to study the application of high performance computing in China’s meteorological department, and obtained the following results: 1) China Meteorological Department gradually established the first high-performance computer system since 1978. High-performance computing services can support operational numerical weather prediction models. 2) The Chinese meteorological department has always used the relatively advanced high-performance computing technology, and the business system capability has been continuously improved. The computing power has become an important symbol of the level of meteorological modernization. 3) High-performance computing technology and meteorological numerical forecasting applications are increasingly integrated, and continue to innovate and develop. 4) In the future, high-performance computing resource management will gradually transit from the current local pre-allocation mode to the local remote unified scheduling and shared use. In summary, we have come to the conclusion that the performance calculation business of the meteorological department will usher in a better tomorrow.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421407,2006CB403707,and2007BAC03A01)the R & D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorol-ogy)(GYHY200806010)Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant NOKZCX2-YW-Q1-02)
文摘This paper describes the construction of a 0.5°× 0.5° daily temperature dataset for the period of 1961- 2005 over China's Mainland for the purpose of climate model validation. The dataset is based on the interpolation from 751 observing stations in China and comprises 3 variables： daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. The ＂anomaly approach＂ is applied in the interpolation. The gridded climatology of 1971-2000 is first calculated and then a gridded daily anomaly for 1961-2005 is added to the climatology to obtain the final dataset. Comparison of the dataset with CRU （Climatic Research Unit） observations at the monthly scale shows general agreement between the two datasets. The differences found can be largely attributed to the introduction of observations at new stations. The dataset shows similar interannual variability as does CRU data over North China and eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, but with a slightly larger linear trend. The dataset is employed to validate the simulation of three extreme indices based on daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature by a high-resolution regional climate model. Results show that the model reproduces these indices well. The data are available at the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration, and a coarser resolution （1°× 1°） version can be accessed via the World Wide Web.
文摘In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Project Nos.XDA19030402 and XDA20020201)the UK–China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund(SFBT&NF).
文摘Surface relative humidity(RH)is a key element for weather and climate monitoring and research.However,RH is not as commonly applied in studying climate change,partly because the observation series of RH are prone to inhomogeneous biases due to non-climate changes in the observation system.A homogenized dataset of daily RH series from 746 stations in Chinese mainland for the period 1960–2017,ChinaRHv1.0,has been developed.Most(685 or 91.82%of the total)station time series were inhomogeneous with one or more break points.The major breakpoints occurred in the early 2000s for many stations,especially in the humid and semi-humid zones,due to the implementation of automated observation across the country.The inhomogeneous biases in the early manual records before this change are positive relative to the recent automatic records,for most of the biased station series.There are more break points detected by using the MASH(Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization)method,with biases mainly around?0.5%and 0.5%.These inhomogeneous biases are adjusted with reference to the most recent observations for each station.Based on the adjusted observations,the regional mean RH series of China shows little long-term trend during 1960–2017[0.006%(10 yr)^?1],contrasting with a false decreasing trend[?0.414%(10 yr)?1]in the raw data.It is notable that ERA5 reanalysis data match closely with the interannual variations of the raw RH series in China,including the jump in the early 2000s,raising a caveat for its application in studying climate change in the region.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421407)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorology)(GYHY200906018)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(90711004 and 40921003)
文摘The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data. Results show that they correlate very well, with the positive （negative） phase of APO tending to increase （decrease） the precipitation over central eastern China. Such a relationship can be explained by the atmospheric circulation changes over Asia and the North Pacific in association with the anomalous APO. A positive phase of APO, characterized by a positive anomaly over Asia and a negative anomaly over the North Pacific in the upper-tropospheric temperature, corresponds to decreased low-level geopotential height （H） and increased high-level H over Asia, and these effects are concurrent with increased low-level H and decreased high-level H over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere are introduced in East Asia, and the low-level southerly wind is strengthened over central eastern China. These changes provide advantageous conditions for enhanced precipitation over central eastern China. The situation is reversed in the negative phase of APO, leading to reduced precipitation in this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.4140508391437220 and 41305066)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2015JJ3098)the Fund Project for The Education Department of Hunan Province(Grant No.14C0897)
文摘In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.
基金the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant Nos. 2017YFC1501701, 2017YFC1501401, 2017YFA0603501 and 2016YFA0600403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91544217, 41771399 and 41471301)+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant Nos. 2017Z005 and 2017R001)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2017STUD17)
文摘Clouds are critical to the global radiation budget and hydrological cycle, but knowledge is still poor concerning the observed climatology of cloud-base height （CBH） in China. Based on fine-resolution sounding observations from the China Radiosonde Network （CRN）, the method used to estimate CBH was modified, and uncertainty analyses indicated that the CBH is good enough. The accuracy of CBH estimation is verified by the comparison between the sounding-derived CBHs and those estimated from the micro-pulse lidar and millimeter-wave cloud radar. As such, the CBH climatology was compiled for the period 2006-16. Overall, the CBH exhibits large geographic variability across China, at both 0800 Local Standard Time （LST） and 2000 LST, irrespective of season. In addition, the summertime cloud base tends to be elevated to higher altitudes in dry regions [i.e., Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain （NCP）]. By comparison, the Tibetan Plateau （TP）, Pearl River Delta （PRD） and Sichuan Basin （SCB） have relatively low CBHs （〈 2.4 km above ground level）. In terms of seasonality, the CBH reaches its maximum in summer and minimum in winter. A low cloud base tends to occur frequently （〉 70%） over the TP, PRD and SCB. In contrast, at most sites over the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） and the NCP, about half the cloud belongs to the high-cloud category. The CBH does not exhibit marked diurnal variation in summer, throughout all CRN sites, probably due to the persistent cloud coverage caused by the East Asia Summer Monsson. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CBH climatology produced from sounding measurements in China, and provides a useful reference for obtaining observational cloud base information.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41275089 and 41305071)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955604)Jingyong ZHANG was supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘Many Chinese people leave big cities for family reunions during the Chinese New Year （CNY）, which is the most important public holiday in China. However, how modem mass human migration during the CNY holiday affects the urban heat island （UHI） is still un- known. Here, the authors investigate the role of modem human migration for the UHI effects during the CNY holiday for the period of 1992-2006 in Harbin City, Northeast China. The results show that during the CNY week, the UHI effects expressed as daily mean, maxi- mum, and minimum temperature differences between urban and rural stations averaged over the period of 1992-2006 are 0.65℃ （43%）, 0.31℃ （48%）, and 1.14℃ （71%） lower than during the background period （four weeks before and four weeks after the CNY week）, re- spectively. Our findings identify previously unknown impacts of modem mass human migration on the UHI effects based on a case study in Harbin City.
基金supported by grants from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA19030402 and XDA19030401)the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(Grant No.GYHY201506002),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41675094,41975115)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2021JQ-166),Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(Grant No.2452019224)Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of the Loess Plateau Soil Erosion and Water Process and Control,Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.HTGY202002).
文摘Recently,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis(CRA-40)dataset for the period 1979−2018.In this study,surface relative humidity(RH)from CRA-40 and other current reanalyses(e.g.,CFSR,ERA5,ERA-Interim,JRA-55,and MERRA-2)is comprehensively evaluated against homogenized observations over China.The results suggest that most reanalyses overestimate the observations by 15%−30%(absolute difference)over the Tibetan Plateau but underestimate the observations by 5%−10%over most of northern China.The CRA-40 performs relatively well in describing the long-term change and variance seen in the observed surface RH over China.Most of the reanalyses reproduce the observed surface RH climatology and interannual variations well,while few reanalyses can capture the observed long-term RH trends over China.Among these reanalyses,the CFSR does poorly in describing the interannual changes in the observed RH,especially in Southwest China.An empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis also suggests that the CRA-40 performs better than other reanalyses to capture the first two leading EOF modes revealed by the observations.The results of this study are expected to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current reanalysis products and thus facilitate their application.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences International Collaboration Program(Grant No.134111KYSB20160010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41505071 and 41475078)the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘A set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） series at 32 stations in China back to the 19th century had previously been developed based on the RHtest method by Cao et al., but some inhomogeneities remained in the dataset. The present study produces a further-adjusted and updated dataset based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method. The MASH procedure detects 33 monthly temperature records as erroneous outliers and 152 meaningful break points in the monthly SAT series since 1924 at 28 stations. The inhomogeneous parts are then adjusted relative to the latest homogeneous part of the series. The new data show significant warming trends during 1924-2016 at all the stations, ranging from 0.48 to 3.57℃ （100 yr）^-1, with a regional mean trend of 1.65℃ （100 yr）^-1 ; whereas, the previous results ranged from a slight cooling at two stations to considerable warming, up to 4.5℃ （100 yr）^-1. It is suggested that the further-adjusted data are a better representation of the large-scale pattern of climate change in the region for the past century. The new data axe available online at http：//www.dx.doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.516.
基金supported by the National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (Grant Nos.2010CB951604 and 2010CB950703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China General Program (Grant Nos.40975062 and 40875062)+2 种基金R&D Special Fund for Nonprofit Industry (Grant No.Meteorology GYHY201206008)the Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2013BAC05B04)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.2012LYB42)
文摘As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for China's Mainland with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km. The approach comprises two steps： （1） fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; （2） apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over China's Mainland. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion （NCEP） Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.
基金supported by the CMA’s special Funds for climate change(No.CCSF201439)the CMA’s special Funds for key technology(No.CMAGJ2015M79)the MEP’s Special Funds for Research on Public Welfares(No.201409002)
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze the climatic characteristics and long-term spatial and temporal variations of haze occurrence in China. The impact factors of haze trends are also discussed. Meteorological data from 1961 to 2012 and daily PM10 concentrations from2003 to 2012 were employed in this study. The results indicate that the annual-average hazy days at all stations have been increasing rapidly from 4 days in 1961 to 18 days in 2012. The maximum number of haze days occur in winter（41.1%） while the minimum occur in summer（10.4%）. During 1961-2012, the high occurrence areas of haze shifted from central to south and east regions of China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei（Jing-Jin-Ji） region, Shanxi,Shaanxi, and Henan Province are the high occurrence areas for haze, while the Yangtze River Delta（YRD） and the Pearl River Delta（PRD） have become regions with high haze occurrences in the last 25 years. Temperature and pressure are positively correlated with the number of haze days. However, wind, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration are negatively correlated with the number of haze days. The key meteorological factors affecting the formation and dissipation of haze vary for high and low altitudes, and are closely related to anthropogenic activities. In recent years, anthropogenic activities have played a more important role in haze occurrences compared with meteorological factors.
基金sponsored by the National Key R&D Programof China(grant number 2016YFA0600404)Key Technology of Integration of Meteorological and Application Projects(grant number CMAGJ2015Z16)+1 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS(grant number 2016075)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘On 1 April 2017 China established Xiongan New Area in Hebei Province, which was described as ‘a strategy crucial for a millennium to come＇. A point of interest for the public is to be aware of the historical climate change in this new area; however, results from previous global-scale or largerregional-scale averages provide relatively limited information because of the distinct regional differences in climate change. This study analyzes the changes in mean and extreme temperature in this area, based on homogenized daily temperature data for the period 1960–2016. The results show a significant warming in the indices of annual, summer, and winter mean temperature（Tmean）, maximum temperature（Tmax）, and minimum temperature（Tmin）. The linear rate of annual Tmean is 0.34 °C/decade. Temperatures on the hottest day, the warmest night, the coldest day, and the coldest night, every year, all show increasing trends, with the trends in the two nighttime-related indices being significant. An increasing occurrence of warm days, warm nights, hot days, and tropical nights, but a decreasing occurrence of cold days, cold nights, icing days, and frost days, are found, all of which are significant, except for the occurrences of hot days and icing days. A significant extension of the length of the thermal growing season is also found. The magnitudes of change in most of the temperature indices in Xiongan New Area are larger than those of the adjacent Jing-Jin-Ji and North China regional mean. These results could provide valuable information for policymakers, city planners, engineers, and migrants to this new area.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant No. 2020JJ4074)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No. 2019QZKK0206)+2 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2021073)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab)the Huaihua University Double First-Class Initiative Applied Characteristic Discipline of Control Science and Engineering
文摘In order to compare the impacts of the choice of land surface model(LSM)parameterization schemes,meteorological forcing,and land surface parameters on land surface hydrological simulations,and explore to what extent the quality can be improved,a series of experiments with different LSMs,forcing datasets,and parameter datasets concerning soil texture and land cover were conducted.Six simulations are run for the Chinese mainland on 0.1°×0.1°grids from 1979 to 2008,and the simulated monthly soil moisture(SM),evapotranspiration(ET),and snow depth(SD)are then compared and assessed against observations.The results show that the meteorological forcing is the most important factor governing output.Beyond that,SM seems to be also very sensitive to soil texture information;SD is also very sensitive to snow parameterization scheme in the LSM.The Community Land Model version 4.5(CLM4.5),driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters(referred to as CMFD_CLM4.5_NEW),significantly improved the simulations in most cases over the Chinese mainland and its eight basins.It increased the correlation coefficient values from 0.46 to 0.54 for the SM modeling and from 0.54 to 0.67 for the SD simulations,and it decreased the root-mean-square error(RMSE)from 0.093 to 0.085 for the SM simulation and reduced the normalized RMSE from 1.277 to 0.201 for the SD simulations.This study indicates that the offline LSM simulation using a refined LSM driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters can better model reginal land surface hydrological processes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41405083 and 91437220)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.2015JJ3098)+1 种基金the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS(QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)the Fund Project for The Education Department of Hunan Province(Grant No.16A234)
文摘The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.
基金funded by an NSFC Major Project (Grant No. 42090033)the China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team “High-Value Climate Change Data Product Development and Application Services”(Grant No. CMA2023QN08)the National Meteorological Information Centre Surplus Funds Program (Grant NMICJY202310)。
文摘High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for calculating highvertical-resolution wind vectors excessively smooths the data, resulting in significant underestimation of the calculated kinetic energy of gravity waves compared to similar products from other countries, which greatly limits the effective utilization of the data. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to calculate high-vertical-resolution wind vectors that utilizes the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and slant range from L-band radar. In order to obtain wind data with a stable quality, a two-step automatic quality control procedure, including the RMSE-F(root-mean-square error F) test and elemental consistency test are first applied to the slant range data, to eliminate continuous erroneous data caused by unstable signals or radar malfunctions. Then, a wind calculation scheme based on a sliding second-order polynomial fitting is utilized to derive the high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors. The evaluation results demonstrate that the wind data obtained through the proposed method show a high level of consistency with the high-resolution wind data observed using the Vaisala Global Positioning System and the data observed by the new Beidou Navigation Sounding System. The calculation of the kinetic energy of gravity waves in the recalculated wind data also reaches a level comparable to the Vaisala observations.
基金Project supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program,China (Grant Nos.2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41305059,41305100,41275096 and 41105070)
文摘Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height field are obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. On a seasonal-to-interannual time scale, the predictability is low in the lower troposphere and high in the mid-upper troposphere. However, within mid-upper troposphere over the subtropics ocean area, there is a relatively poor predictability. These conclusions also fit the seasonal time scale. Moving to the interannual time scale, the predictability becomes high in the lower troposphere and low in the mid-upper troposphere, contrary to the former case. On the whole the interannual trend is more predictable than the seasonal trend. The average information loss rate is low over the mid-east Pacific, west of North America, Atlantic and Eurasia, and the atmosphere over other places has a relatively high information loss rate on all-time scales. Two channels are found steadily over the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean in subtropics. There are also unstable channels. The four- season influence on predictability and information communication are studied. The predictability is low, no matter which season data are removed and each season plays an important role in the existence of the channels, except for the winter. The predictability and teleconnections are paramount issues in atmospheric science, and the teleconnections may be established by communication channels. So, this work is interesting since it reveals the vertical structure of predictability distribution, channel locations, and the contributions of different time scales to them and their variations under different seasons.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12275179,12005079,and 41975100),the Shanghai Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.21ZR1443900),Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20220511),the funding for Scientific Research Startup of Jiangsu University(Grant No.4111710001),and the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(Grant No.22NLTSZ004).
文摘Abrupt temperature volatility has detrimental effects on daily activities,macroeconomic growth,and human health.Predicting abrupt temperature volatility and thus diminishing its negative impacts can be achieved by exploring homogeneous regions of temperature volatility and analyzing the driving factors.To investigate the regionalization of temperature volatility in China's mainland,a network constructed by the cosine similarity of temperature volatility series from China's mainland was embedded in hyperbolic space.Subsequently,we partitioned the network on the hyperbolic map using the critical gap method and then found eight regions in all.Ultimately,a network of communities was constructed while the interaction among communities was quantified.This yields a perspective of temperature volatility regionalization that can accurately reflect factors including altitude,climate type,and the geographic location of mountains.Further analysis demonstrates that the regionalization in the hyperbolic map is distinct from provinces and has a realistic basis:communities in southwest China show strong correlations due to the temperature sensitivity to altitude,and communities in northern China show a convergence in the area of Dingxi,Gansu,mainly owing to the strong temperature sensitivity to climate types.As a consequence,node distributions and community divisions in the hyperbolic map can offer new insights into the regionalization of temperature volatility in China's mainland.The results demonstrate the potential of hyperbolic embedding of complex networks in forecasting future node associations in real-world data.
