Capabilities to assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series ”(GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM) flash extent density(FED) data within the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interp...Capabilities to assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series ”(GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM) flash extent density(FED) data within the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation ensemble Kalman filter(GSI-EnKF) framework were previously developed and tested with a mesoscale convective system(MCS) case. In this study, such capabilities are further developed to assimilate GOES GLM FED data within the GSI ensemble-variational(EnVar) hybrid data assimilation(DA) framework. The results of assimilating the GLM FED data using 3DVar, and pure En3DVar(PEn3DVar, using 100% ensemble covariance and no static covariance) are compared with those of EnKF/DfEnKF for a supercell storm case. The focus of this study is to validate the correctness and evaluate the performance of the new implementation rather than comparing the performance of FED DA among different DA schemes. Only the results of 3DVar and pEn3DVar are examined and compared with EnKF/DfEnKF. Assimilation of a single FED observation shows that the magnitude and horizontal extent of the analysis increments from PEn3DVar are generally larger than from EnKF, which is mainly caused by using different localization strategies in EnFK/DfEnKF and PEn3DVar as well as the integration limits of the graupel mass in the observation operator. Overall, the forecast performance of PEn3DVar is comparable to EnKF/DfEnKF, suggesting correct implementation.展开更多
After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve we...After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.展开更多
The non-uniqueness of solution and compatibility between the coupled boundary conditions in computing velocity potential and streamfunction from horizontal velocity in a limited domain of arbitrary shape are revisited...The non-uniqueness of solution and compatibility between the coupled boundary conditions in computing velocity potential and streamfunction from horizontal velocity in a limited domain of arbitrary shape are revisited theoretically with rigorous mathematic treatments.Classic integral formulas and their variants are used to formulate solutions for the coupled problems.In the absence of data holes,the total solution is the sum of two integral solutions.One is the internally induced solution produced purely and uniquely by the domain internal divergence and vorticity,and its two components（velocity potential and streamfunction） can be constructed by applying Green＇s function for Poisson equation in unbounded domain to the divergence and vorticity inside the domain.The other is the externally induced solution produced purely but non-uniquely by the domain external divergence and vorticity,and the non-uniqueness is caused by the harmonic nature of the solution and the unknown divergence and vorticity distributions outside the domain.By setting either the velocity potential（or streamfunction） component to zero,the other component of the externally induced solution can be expressed by the imaginary（or real） part of the Cauchy integral constructed using the coupled boundary conditions and solvability conditions that exclude the internally induced solution.The streamfunction（or velocity potential） for the externally induced solution can also be expressed by the boundary integral of a double-layer（or singlelayer） density function.In the presence of data holes,the total solution includes a data-hole-induced solution in addition to the above internally and externally induced solutions.展开更多
Two types of existing iterative methods for solving the nonlinear balance equation(NBE)are revisited.In the first type,the NBE is rearranged into a linearized equation for a presumably small correction to the initial ...Two types of existing iterative methods for solving the nonlinear balance equation(NBE)are revisited.In the first type,the NBE is rearranged into a linearized equation for a presumably small correction to the initial guess or the subsequent updated solution.In the second type,the NBE is rearranged into a quadratic form of the absolute vorticity with the positive root of this quadratic form used in the form of a Poisson equation to solve NBE iteratively.The two methods are rederived by expanding the solution asymptotically upon a small Rossby number,and a criterion for optimally truncating the asymptotic expansion is proposed to obtain the super-asymptotic approximation of the solution.For each rederived method,two iterative procedures are designed using the integral-form Poisson solver versus the over-relaxation scheme to solve the boundary value problem in each iteration.Upon testing with analytically formulated wavering jet flows on the synoptic,sub-synoptic and meso-αscales,the iterative procedure designed for the first method with the Poisson solver,named M1a,is found to be the most accurate and efficient.For the synoptic wavering jet flow in which the NBE is entirely elliptic,M1a is extremely accurate.For the sub-synoptic wavering jet flow in which the NBE is mostly elliptic,M1a is sufficiently accurate.For the meso-αwavering jet flow in which the NBE is partially hyperbolic so its boundary value problem becomes seriously ill-posed,M1a can effectively reduce the solution error for the cyclonically curved part of the wavering jet flow,but not for the anti-cyclonically curved part.展开更多
By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemb...By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemble- based filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter （EnSRF） was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.展开更多
As part of NOAA＇s ＂Warn-On-Forecast＂ initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then eval...As part of NOAA＇s ＂Warn-On-Forecast＂ initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then evaluated using retrospective short-range ensemble analyses and probabilistic forecasts of the tornadic supercell outbreak event that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma, USA. A 36-member multi-physics ensemble system provided the initial and boundary conditions for a 3-km convective-scale ensemble system. Radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four WSR-88 Ds were assimilated into the ensemble using the ARPS 3DVAR technique. Five data assimilation and forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the system to data assimilation frequencies, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and fixed- and mixed-microphysics ensembles. The results indicated that the experiment with 5-min assimilation frequency quickly built up the storm and produced a more accurate analysis compared with the 10-min assimilation frequency experiment. The predicted vertical vorticity from the moist-adiabatic in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme was larger in magnitude than that from the latent heat scheme. Cycled data assimilation yielded good forecasts, where the ensemble probability of high vertical vorticity matched reasonably well with the observed tornado damage path. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the 3DVAR analysis and forecast system can provide reasonable forecasts of tornadic supercell storms.展开更多
基金supported by NOAA JTTI award via Grant #NA21OAR4590165, NOAA GOESR Program funding via Grant #NA16OAR4320115provided by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement #NA11OAR4320072, U.S. Department of Commercesupported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce via Grant #NA18NWS4680063。
文摘Capabilities to assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series ”(GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM) flash extent density(FED) data within the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation ensemble Kalman filter(GSI-EnKF) framework were previously developed and tested with a mesoscale convective system(MCS) case. In this study, such capabilities are further developed to assimilate GOES GLM FED data within the GSI ensemble-variational(EnVar) hybrid data assimilation(DA) framework. The results of assimilating the GLM FED data using 3DVar, and pure En3DVar(PEn3DVar, using 100% ensemble covariance and no static covariance) are compared with those of EnKF/DfEnKF for a supercell storm case. The focus of this study is to validate the correctness and evaluate the performance of the new implementation rather than comparing the performance of FED DA among different DA schemes. Only the results of 3DVar and pEn3DVar are examined and compared with EnKF/DfEnKF. Assimilation of a single FED observation shows that the magnitude and horizontal extent of the analysis increments from PEn3DVar are generally larger than from EnKF, which is mainly caused by using different localization strategies in EnFK/DfEnKF and PEn3DVar as well as the integration limits of the graupel mass in the observation operator. Overall, the forecast performance of PEn3DVar is comparable to EnKF/DfEnKF, suggesting correct implementation.
基金supported by the NOAA (Grant Nos. NA16AOR4320115 and NA11OAR4320072)NSF (Grant No. AGS-1341878)
文摘After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.
基金supported by the Office of Naval Research (Grant No. N000141010778) to the University of Oklahomathe National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930950,41075043,and 4092116037) to the Institute of Atmospheric Physicsprovided by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement (No. NA17RJ1227),U.S. Department of Commerce
文摘The non-uniqueness of solution and compatibility between the coupled boundary conditions in computing velocity potential and streamfunction from horizontal velocity in a limited domain of arbitrary shape are revisited theoretically with rigorous mathematic treatments.Classic integral formulas and their variants are used to formulate solutions for the coupled problems.In the absence of data holes,the total solution is the sum of two integral solutions.One is the internally induced solution produced purely and uniquely by the domain internal divergence and vorticity,and its two components（velocity potential and streamfunction） can be constructed by applying Green＇s function for Poisson equation in unbounded domain to the divergence and vorticity inside the domain.The other is the externally induced solution produced purely but non-uniquely by the domain external divergence and vorticity,and the non-uniqueness is caused by the harmonic nature of the solution and the unknown divergence and vorticity distributions outside the domain.By setting either the velocity potential（or streamfunction） component to zero,the other component of the externally induced solution can be expressed by the imaginary（or real） part of the Cauchy integral constructed using the coupled boundary conditions and solvability conditions that exclude the internally induced solution.The streamfunction（or velocity potential） for the externally induced solution can also be expressed by the boundary integral of a double-layer（or singlelayer） density function.In the presence of data holes,the total solution includes a data-hole-induced solution in addition to the above internally and externally induced solutions.
基金the NSF of China Grants 91937301 and 41675060,the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project"EarthLab",and the ONR Grants N000141712375 and N000142012449 to the University of Oklahoma(OU)The numerical experiments were performed at the OU supercomputer SchoonerCIMMS by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-OU Cooperative Agreement#NA110AR4320072,U.S.Department of Commerce.
文摘Two types of existing iterative methods for solving the nonlinear balance equation(NBE)are revisited.In the first type,the NBE is rearranged into a linearized equation for a presumably small correction to the initial guess or the subsequent updated solution.In the second type,the NBE is rearranged into a quadratic form of the absolute vorticity with the positive root of this quadratic form used in the form of a Poisson equation to solve NBE iteratively.The two methods are rederived by expanding the solution asymptotically upon a small Rossby number,and a criterion for optimally truncating the asymptotic expansion is proposed to obtain the super-asymptotic approximation of the solution.For each rederived method,two iterative procedures are designed using the integral-form Poisson solver versus the over-relaxation scheme to solve the boundary value problem in each iteration.Upon testing with analytically formulated wavering jet flows on the synoptic,sub-synoptic and meso-αscales,the iterative procedure designed for the first method with the Poisson solver,named M1a,is found to be the most accurate and efficient.For the synoptic wavering jet flow in which the NBE is entirely elliptic,M1a is extremely accurate.For the sub-synoptic wavering jet flow in which the NBE is mostly elliptic,M1a is sufficiently accurate.For the meso-αwavering jet flow in which the NBE is partially hyperbolic so its boundary value problem becomes seriously ill-posed,M1a can effectively reduce the solution error for the cyclonically curved part of the wavering jet flow,but not for the anti-cyclonically curved part.
基金supported by ONR Grants N000140410312 and N000141010778 to CIMMS,the University of Oklahomaby the radar data assimilation projects No. 2008LASW-A01 and No.GYHY200806003 at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of SciencesProvided to CIMMS by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Coopera-tive Agreement #NA17RJ1227,U.S. Department of Commerce
文摘By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemble- based filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter （EnSRF） was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.
基金provided by the NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under the NOAA–University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement#NA17RJ1227the U.S.Department of Commerce+2 种基金NSF AGS-1341878the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project No.41305092)the International S&T Cooperation Program of China(ISTCP)(Grant No.2011DFG23210)
文摘As part of NOAA＇s ＂Warn-On-Forecast＂ initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then evaluated using retrospective short-range ensemble analyses and probabilistic forecasts of the tornadic supercell outbreak event that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma, USA. A 36-member multi-physics ensemble system provided the initial and boundary conditions for a 3-km convective-scale ensemble system. Radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four WSR-88 Ds were assimilated into the ensemble using the ARPS 3DVAR technique. Five data assimilation and forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the system to data assimilation frequencies, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and fixed- and mixed-microphysics ensembles. The results indicated that the experiment with 5-min assimilation frequency quickly built up the storm and produced a more accurate analysis compared with the 10-min assimilation frequency experiment. The predicted vertical vorticity from the moist-adiabatic in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme was larger in magnitude than that from the latent heat scheme. Cycled data assimilation yielded good forecasts, where the ensemble probability of high vertical vorticity matched reasonably well with the observed tornado damage path. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the 3DVAR analysis and forecast system can provide reasonable forecasts of tornadic supercell storms.
