Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the...Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the TP to the east. TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP （e.g., in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley）. Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent （400-800 kin） and the limited availability of soundings over the TP, which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs. In this study, （i） manual tracking （MT） results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with （ii） results obtained by an automated tracking （AT） algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data. Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method （i） and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method （ii）. Conversely, ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs. In general, the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement, but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods, data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data. Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking, including in an operational weather forecasting context.展开更多
Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill i...Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.展开更多
基金supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund grant agreement P100195 between the Met Office and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading for the MESETA(Modelling Physical and Dynamical Processes over the Tibetan Plateau and their Regional Effects over East Asia) project
文摘Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the TP to the east. TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP （e.g., in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley）. Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent （400-800 kin） and the limited availability of soundings over the TP, which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs. In this study, （i） manual tracking （MT） results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with （ii） results obtained by an automated tracking （AT） algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data. Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method （i） and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method （ii）. Conversely, ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs. In general, the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement, but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods, data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data. Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking, including in an operational weather forecasting context.
基金supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fundsupported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078)
文摘Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.
