This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the So...This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.展开更多
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field i...Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.展开更多
Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that...Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.展开更多
The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） can be divided into an ENSO-related part （EAWMEN） and an ENSO-unrelated part （EAWMres）.The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon （EAS...The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） can be divided into an ENSO-related part （EAWMEN） and an ENSO-unrelated part （EAWMres）.The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） relationship in the decaying stages of ENSO is investigated in the present study.To achieve this,ENSO is divided into four groups based on the EAWMres：（1） weak EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （WEAWMres-EN）; （2） strong EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （SEAWMresEN）; （3） weak EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （WEAWMres-LN）; （4） strong EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （SEAWMres-LN）.Composite results demonstrate that the EAWMres may enhance the atmospheric responses over East Asia to ENSO for WEAWMres-EN and SEAWMres-LN.The corresponding low-level anticyclonic （cyclonic） anomalies over the western North Pacific （WNP） associated with El Ni（n）o （La Ni（n）a） tend to be strong.Importantly,this feature may persist into the following summer,causing abundant rainfall in northern China for WEAWMres-EN cases and in southwestern China for SEAWMres-LN cases.In contrast,for the SEAWMres-EN and WEAWMres-LN groups,the EAWMres tends to weaken the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with E1 Ni（n）o or La Ni（n）a.In these cases,the anomalous WNP anticyclone or cyclone tend to be reduced and confined to lower latitudes,which results in deficient summer rainfall in northern China for SEAWMres-EN and in southwestern China for WEAWMres-LN.Further study suggests that anomalous EAWMres may have an effect on the extra-tropical sea surface temperature anomaly,which persists into the ensuing summer and may interfere with the influences of ENSO.展开更多
The Tibetan Plateau(TP),often referred to as the“Asian Water Tower”,holds vast reserves of glaciers,snow,and permafrost,serving as the crucial source for major rivers that support billions of people across Asia.The...The Tibetan Plateau(TP),often referred to as the“Asian Water Tower”,holds vast reserves of glaciers,snow,and permafrost,serving as the crucial source for major rivers that support billions of people across Asia.The TP’s unique geographical positioning fosters significant interplay between the westerly and monsoon systems,the hydroclimate changes on the TP and its interactions with these two major atmospheric circulation systems through both the thermodynamic and dynamic processes,as well as the atmospheric water cycle of the TP.These interactions have far-reaching impacts on the weather and climate of China,Asia,and even the global atmospheric circulation.展开更多
This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 （CMIP3） coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index （DMI） was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation （SD） was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble （MME） results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI： 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ＂the strong get stronger＂. Another finding was that ENSO–monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO–summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.展开更多
Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Pr...Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.展开更多
Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has ...Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects： the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） system and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the ＂Silk Road＂ teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.展开更多
The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show...The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.展开更多
The present paper gives an overview of the key project ' South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)' operated by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the period of 1996-2001. The SCSMEX is a...The present paper gives an overview of the key project ' South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)' operated by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the period of 1996-2001. The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic field experiment which aims to better understand the onset, maintenance, and variability of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS). It is a large-scale international effort with many participating countries and regions cooperatively involved in this experiment. With the field observation in May-August 1998, a large amount of meteorological and oceanic data was acquired, which provides excellent datasets for the study of the SCS monsoon and the East Asian monsoon and their interaction with the ocean. The preliminary research achievements are as follows. (1) The earliest onset of the Asian monsoon over the SCS and Indo-China Peninsula has been well documented. Prom the viewpoint of the synoptic process, its onset is closely related to the early rapid development of a twin cyclone to the east of Sri Lanka. The conceptual modei of the SCS monsoon onset in 1998 was put forward. The 50-year time series of the SCS monsoon onset date was also made. (2) Two major modes, namely the 30-60-day and 10-20-day oscillations were ascertained. The influences of the abnormal SCS monsoon on the precipitation over eastern China and its modes were identifled. A strong (weak) monsoon over the SCS usually leads to less (more) precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and more (less) precipitation in North China. (3) During the monsoon onset over the SCS, a wide variety of organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were observed by a Doppler radar array deployed over the northern SCS. The relationship between large-scale circulations and MCSs during the monsoon onset process in 1998 was clearly revealed. It was suggested that there is a kind of positive feedback mechanism between large-scale circulations and MCSs. (4) The SST over the SCS during the early period influences the timing of the monsoon onset date and the monsoon's intensity. During the monsoon onset, the ocean undergoes a process of energy release through air-sea interaction. During the break phase of the SCS monsoon, the ocean demonstrates the process of energy re-accumulation. Obvious differences in the air-sea turbulent flux exchange between the southern and northern parts of the SCS due to different characteristic features of the atmosphere and sea structure were observed in those regions. (5) The verification of impact of intensive observations on the predictive performance is made by the use of regional models. The air-sea coupled regional climate modei (CRCM) was also developed under the SCSMEX Project . The simulation of the oceanic circulation in 1998 produced with the modei was well compared with the observations.展开更多
Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four ...Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories： low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.展开更多
Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection i...Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection intensities are widely used to determine the SCSSM onset.The methods can be used successfully in most of the years but not in 2006.Due to the intrusion of Typhoon Chanchu(0601)that year,the usual method of determining SCSSM onset date by utilizing the SCS regional indices is less capable of pinpointing the real onset date.In order to solve the problem,larger-scale situations have to be taken into account.Zonal and meridional circulations would be better to determine the break-out date of SCSSM in 2006.The result indicates that its onset date is May 16.Moreover,similar onset dates for other years can be obtained using various methods,implying that large-scale zonal and meridional circulations can be used as an alternative method for determining the SCSSM onset date.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations ...Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development （SVD） theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.展开更多
An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The...An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The mean onset date was brought forward by two pentads during 1999–2013 compared to that during 1979–1998. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic change associated with this shift exhibits a significant interdecadal variation signal around 1998/1999, indicating that the shift during the late 1990 s is robust. Different from the well-known mid-1990 s shift, this shift carried more important systematical significance. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the earlier outbreak of the SCSSM was due to the interdecadal warming of the warm pool, which brought stronger convection anomalies and led to a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during boreal spring(March–May). The earlier retreat of the WPSH was a direct cause of this shift.展开更多
Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East A...Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.展开更多
The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in S...The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.展开更多
Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected chang...Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100） and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100）. The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability （described by the standard deviation of temperature） increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.展开更多
Using Reynolds and Smith 1950 - 1998 re-constructed monthly-mean SST to discuss the relationship between the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） and their possible connection with the onset of South China Sea summer ...Using Reynolds and Smith 1950 - 1998 re-constructed monthly-mean SST to discuss the relationship between the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） and their possible connection with the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon（ SCSSM）, the results are obtained as follows ： Most of IOD events have a closely positive relation to simultaneous ENSO events in summer and autumn. IOD events in autumn （ mature phase） are also closely related to ENSO events in winter （ mature phase）. When these two kinds of events happen in phase, i.e. , positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with E1 Nifío （La Nifía） events, they are always followed by late （ or early） onsets of SCSSM. On the contrary, when these two kinds of events happen out of phase, i.e. positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with La Nifia （ E1 Nifío） events, they are followed by normal onsets of SCSSM. In addition, single IOD events or single ENSO events cannot correspond well to the abnormal onset of SCSSM.展开更多
Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation （TBO）, as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce ...Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation （TBO）, as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon （SCS/WNPSM）, a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.展开更多
The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is traditionally regarded as the most important factor modulating the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) onset. A preceding El Ni?o(La Ni?a) usual...The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is traditionally regarded as the most important factor modulating the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) onset. A preceding El Ni?o(La Ni?a) usually tends to be followed by a delayed(an advanced) monsoon onset. However, the close relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset breaks down after the early-2000 s, making seasonal prediction very difficult in recent years. Three possible perspectives have been proposed to explain the weakening linkage between ENSO and SCSSM onset, including interdecadal change of the ENSO teleconnection(i.e., the Walker circulation), interferences of other interannual variability(i.e., the Victoria mode), and disturbances on intraseasonal time scales(i.e., the quasi-biweekly oscillation). By comparing the epochs of 1979–2001 and 2002–19, it is found that the anomalous tropical Walker circulation generated by ENSO is much weaker in the latter epoch and thus cannot deliver the ENSO signal to the SCSSM onset. Besides, in recent years, the SCSSM onset is more closely linked to extratropical factors like the Victoria mode, and thus its linkage with ENSO becomes weaker. In addition to these interannual variabilities, the intraseasonal oscillations like the quasi-biweekly oscillation can disrupt the slow-varying seasonal march modulated by ENSO. Thus, the amplified quasi-biweekly oscillation may also contribute to the weakening relationship after the early-2000 s. Given the broken relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset, the extratropical factors should be considered in order to make skillful seasonal predictions of SCSSM onset, and more attention should be paid to the extended-range forecast based on intraseasonal oscillations.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175018, 42175020)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2023B1212060019)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(311024001)Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.
基金study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230605 and 41721004).
文摘Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos40890053,90502001,and 90711003)
文摘Climate in China's Mainland can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4-5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41025017, 41230527 and 41205047)
文摘The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） can be divided into an ENSO-related part （EAWMEN） and an ENSO-unrelated part （EAWMres）.The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） relationship in the decaying stages of ENSO is investigated in the present study.To achieve this,ENSO is divided into four groups based on the EAWMres：（1） weak EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （WEAWMres-EN）; （2） strong EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （SEAWMresEN）; （3） weak EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （WEAWMres-LN）; （4） strong EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （SEAWMres-LN）.Composite results demonstrate that the EAWMres may enhance the atmospheric responses over East Asia to ENSO for WEAWMres-EN and SEAWMres-LN.The corresponding low-level anticyclonic （cyclonic） anomalies over the western North Pacific （WNP） associated with El Ni（n）o （La Ni（n）a） tend to be strong.Importantly,this feature may persist into the following summer,causing abundant rainfall in northern China for WEAWMres-EN cases and in southwestern China for SEAWMres-LN cases.In contrast,for the SEAWMres-EN and WEAWMres-LN groups,the EAWMres tends to weaken the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with E1 Ni（n）o or La Ni（n）a.In these cases,the anomalous WNP anticyclone or cyclone tend to be reduced and confined to lower latitudes,which results in deficient summer rainfall in northern China for SEAWMres-EN and in southwestern China for WEAWMres-LN.Further study suggests that anomalous EAWMres may have an effect on the extra-tropical sea surface temperature anomaly,which persists into the ensuing summer and may interfere with the influences of ENSO.
文摘The Tibetan Plateau(TP),often referred to as the“Asian Water Tower”,holds vast reserves of glaciers,snow,and permafrost,serving as the crucial source for major rivers that support billions of people across Asia.The TP’s unique geographical positioning fosters significant interplay between the westerly and monsoon systems,the hydroclimate changes on the TP and its interactions with these two major atmospheric circulation systems through both the thermodynamic and dynamic processes,as well as the atmospheric water cycle of the TP.These interactions have far-reaching impacts on the weather and climate of China,Asia,and even the global atmospheric circulation.
基金supported bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40725016) the National Basic Research Pro-gram of China (Grant No. 2009CB421405)
文摘This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 （CMIP3） coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index （DMI） was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation （SD） was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble （MME） results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI： 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ＂the strong get stronger＂. Another finding was that ENSO–monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO–summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.
基金This paper was supported by the ＂National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences＂ under Grant No. G2006CB403600Knowledge Innovation for the 3rd Period,Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. KZCX2-YW-220the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40730952, 40575026, 40775051 respectively.
文摘Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China 973 Projects (Grant No. 2010CB950403)the National Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201006021)+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No. KZCX2-EW-QN204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975046)
文摘Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects： the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） system and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the ＂Silk Road＂ teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.
基金This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40730952） Project KZCX2-YW-220, Program of Knowledge Innovation for the 3rd Period, Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Project G2006CB403600, the ＂National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences＂, respectively.
文摘The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.
文摘The present paper gives an overview of the key project ' South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)' operated by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the period of 1996-2001. The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic field experiment which aims to better understand the onset, maintenance, and variability of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS). It is a large-scale international effort with many participating countries and regions cooperatively involved in this experiment. With the field observation in May-August 1998, a large amount of meteorological and oceanic data was acquired, which provides excellent datasets for the study of the SCS monsoon and the East Asian monsoon and their interaction with the ocean. The preliminary research achievements are as follows. (1) The earliest onset of the Asian monsoon over the SCS and Indo-China Peninsula has been well documented. Prom the viewpoint of the synoptic process, its onset is closely related to the early rapid development of a twin cyclone to the east of Sri Lanka. The conceptual modei of the SCS monsoon onset in 1998 was put forward. The 50-year time series of the SCS monsoon onset date was also made. (2) Two major modes, namely the 30-60-day and 10-20-day oscillations were ascertained. The influences of the abnormal SCS monsoon on the precipitation over eastern China and its modes were identifled. A strong (weak) monsoon over the SCS usually leads to less (more) precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and more (less) precipitation in North China. (3) During the monsoon onset over the SCS, a wide variety of organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were observed by a Doppler radar array deployed over the northern SCS. The relationship between large-scale circulations and MCSs during the monsoon onset process in 1998 was clearly revealed. It was suggested that there is a kind of positive feedback mechanism between large-scale circulations and MCSs. (4) The SST over the SCS during the early period influences the timing of the monsoon onset date and the monsoon's intensity. During the monsoon onset, the ocean undergoes a process of energy release through air-sea interaction. During the break phase of the SCS monsoon, the ocean demonstrates the process of energy re-accumulation. Obvious differences in the air-sea turbulent flux exchange between the southern and northern parts of the SCS due to different characteristic features of the atmosphere and sea structure were observed in those regions. (5) The verification of impact of intensive observations on the predictive performance is made by the use of regional models. The air-sea coupled regional climate modei (CRCM) was also developed under the SCSMEX Project . The simulation of the oceanic circulation in 1998 produced with the modei was well compared with the observations.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421405)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (2008BAK50B02)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905026 and 40775035)Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC0901)
文摘Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories： low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.
基金Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)(2010CB950304)
文摘Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection intensities are widely used to determine the SCSSM onset.The methods can be used successfully in most of the years but not in 2006.Due to the intrusion of Typhoon Chanchu(0601)that year,the usual method of determining SCSSM onset date by utilizing the SCS regional indices is less capable of pinpointing the real onset date.In order to solve the problem,larger-scale situations have to be taken into account.Zonal and meridional circulations would be better to determine the break-out date of SCSSM in 2006.The result indicates that its onset date is May 16.Moreover,similar onset dates for other years can be obtained using various methods,implying that large-scale zonal and meridional circulations can be used as an alternative method for determining the SCSSM onset date.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40730951the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2009CB421404
文摘Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development （SVD） theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41461164005,41375065,and 41230527)
文摘An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The mean onset date was brought forward by two pentads during 1999–2013 compared to that during 1979–1998. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic change associated with this shift exhibits a significant interdecadal variation signal around 1998/1999, indicating that the shift during the late 1990 s is robust. Different from the well-known mid-1990 s shift, this shift carried more important systematical significance. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the earlier outbreak of the SCSSM was due to the interdecadal warming of the warm pool, which brought stronger convection anomalies and led to a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during boreal spring(March–May). The earlier retreat of the WPSH was a direct cause of this shift.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40231005)the Progran for Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KZCX3-SW-218,KZCX2-SW-210).
文摘Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2008BAK50B02)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40730952)
文摘The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant Nos.2010CB428603 and 2012CB417203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41175041)
文摘Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100） and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection （an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100）. The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability （described by the standard deviation of temperature） increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.40275026the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science of China under contract No.G1998040900 Part I.
文摘Using Reynolds and Smith 1950 - 1998 re-constructed monthly-mean SST to discuss the relationship between the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） and their possible connection with the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon（ SCSSM）, the results are obtained as follows ： Most of IOD events have a closely positive relation to simultaneous ENSO events in summer and autumn. IOD events in autumn （ mature phase） are also closely related to ENSO events in winter （ mature phase）. When these two kinds of events happen in phase, i.e. , positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with E1 Nifío （La Nifía） events, they are always followed by late （ or early） onsets of SCSSM. On the contrary, when these two kinds of events happen out of phase, i.e. positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with La Nifia （ E1 Nifío） events, they are followed by normal onsets of SCSSM. In addition, single IOD events or single ENSO events cannot correspond well to the abnormal onset of SCSSM.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No 40505019） and the 0pen Research Fund of Laboratory of China Meteorological Administration （Grant No CMATG2006L03）.
文摘Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation （TBO）, as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon （SCS/WNPSM）, a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41961144016 and 42175039)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M693134)the Special Research Assistant Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences。
文摘The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is traditionally regarded as the most important factor modulating the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) onset. A preceding El Ni?o(La Ni?a) usually tends to be followed by a delayed(an advanced) monsoon onset. However, the close relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset breaks down after the early-2000 s, making seasonal prediction very difficult in recent years. Three possible perspectives have been proposed to explain the weakening linkage between ENSO and SCSSM onset, including interdecadal change of the ENSO teleconnection(i.e., the Walker circulation), interferences of other interannual variability(i.e., the Victoria mode), and disturbances on intraseasonal time scales(i.e., the quasi-biweekly oscillation). By comparing the epochs of 1979–2001 and 2002–19, it is found that the anomalous tropical Walker circulation generated by ENSO is much weaker in the latter epoch and thus cannot deliver the ENSO signal to the SCSSM onset. Besides, in recent years, the SCSSM onset is more closely linked to extratropical factors like the Victoria mode, and thus its linkage with ENSO becomes weaker. In addition to these interannual variabilities, the intraseasonal oscillations like the quasi-biweekly oscillation can disrupt the slow-varying seasonal march modulated by ENSO. Thus, the amplified quasi-biweekly oscillation may also contribute to the weakening relationship after the early-2000 s. Given the broken relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset, the extratropical factors should be considered in order to make skillful seasonal predictions of SCSSM onset, and more attention should be paid to the extended-range forecast based on intraseasonal oscillations.
