Socialization of meteorological services is important guarantee of servicing national major development strategy,strategic selection of adapting to national reform,urgent need of meeting the development of related ind...Socialization of meteorological services is important guarantee of servicing national major development strategy,strategic selection of adapting to national reform,urgent need of meeting the development of related industries,and necessary way of solving public demand on meticulous,targeted and personalized meteorological services. At present,socialization construction of meteorological services in China still has many problems,such as weak service capability of intelligent weather,inadequate and imbalanced urban-rural and regional development,insufficient sharing and opening of meteorological data,and deficient role of social organization. It should vigorously impel socialization of meteorological services by exploring sharing and opening mechanism of basic meteorological data,establishing policy,regulation and standard system adapting to socialization of meteorological services,establishing operation mechanism for socialization of meteorological services of government dominance combining market,enriching content and means of meteorological socialization service.展开更多
With complex terrain and developed economy, Zhejiang Province has suffered a lot from the frequent geological disasters, which have done great damages to the construction and development of the whole province. Therefo...With complex terrain and developed economy, Zhejiang Province has suffered a lot from the frequent geological disasters, which have done great damages to the construction and development of the whole province. Therefore, it is particularly important to improve the geological disasters meteorological service. Electronic sand table system, a high-tech product of three-dimensional visualization, can provide the geological disaster meteorological service with the intuitive and visual application environment. In this study, we developed electronic sand table system based on GIS and established the geological disasters meteorological service database. In addition, we also analyzed and discussed the applications of meteorological service in online weather forecast, meteorological warning message, and multimedia meteorological electronic display. The application of electronic sand table system in geological disaster meteorological services for disaster prevention and mitigation is of great importance that it provides intuitive terrain analysis data for the forecast of geological disasters warning, which greatly enhances the ability of geological disasters meteorological service.展开更多
The continuous rainy precipitation process from February to March in 2019 was selected to analyze the effect of meteorological service in Tangpu Reservoir basin,so as to sum up service experience and then lay a better...The continuous rainy precipitation process from February to March in 2019 was selected to analyze the effect of meteorological service in Tangpu Reservoir basin,so as to sum up service experience and then lay a better foundation for subsequent services.In response to the rainy weather from December 2018 to early 2019,three rounds of flood discharge were carried out in Tangpu Reservoir.During February-March in 2019,the hit rate of short-term area rainfall forecast for Tangpu Reservoir was 80.0%.Compared with the median of forecast interval,the average absolute error was 7.6 mm,and the relative error was 32.7%.The large deviation in the forecast from March 27 to 28 was deeply analyzed,and it is found that the main reasons were excessive reliance on and trust in a single model,insufficient correction of the actual situation,and insufficient judgment of the nature of precipitation.For the future reservoir meteorological service,three aspects of thinking were put forward,such as further strengthening the sharing of hydrological and meteorological information,improving the forecasting ability,and deepening the research of runoff forecast models.展开更多
To study the temporal and spatial changes of heat resources to serve agricultural production and economic development. The climate data from 1958 to 2017 were selected, and the temporal and spatial changes of heat res...To study the temporal and spatial changes of heat resources to serve agricultural production and economic development. The climate data from 1958 to 2017 were selected, and the temporal and spatial changes of heat resources in Liaoning, China were analyzed by using the method of climate diagnosis and analysis. The results show that: the southern coastal area of Liaoning has the most heat resources, the northwestern hilly area and the eastern mountainous area the least, and the central plain area in the middle distribution pattern;compared with 1958-1980, 1981-2017 ≥0°C, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, etc. The value line is advanced 100-160km northward. The accumulated temperature of ≥0°C and ≥10°C in Liaoning experienced abrupt changes in climate in 1993 and 1994, and the climate abrupt change in the southern coastal area was earlier than that in the inland. , the increase in the northwestern hilly area and the eastern mountainous area is less than that in the central plain area and the southern coastal area. The study on the impact on meteorological services found that the increase or decrease of heat resources has a significant impact on agro-meteorological services, which can prolong the growing season of crops, relatively reduce the damage of frost, improve comprehensive utilization of land, and increase crop yields;at the same time, with the increase of heat resources and the northward expansion of the isoline of accumulated temperature, the area affected by pests and diseases has expanded, which has aggravated the harm to agriculture economic burden.展开更多
An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public ...An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index.Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators merged.For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one another.Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.展开更多
The present situation of meteorological services for ecological tourism in Shaanxi Province was analyzed firstly,and then the problems existing in the meteorological services were analyzed.Finally,corresponding measur...The present situation of meteorological services for ecological tourism in Shaanxi Province was analyzed firstly,and then the problems existing in the meteorological services were analyzed.Finally,corresponding measures were put forward.展开更多
Based on the survey data of public meteorological services,differences between users' needs for public meteorological services were analyzed by using Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the principle of informatio...Based on the survey data of public meteorological services,differences between users' needs for public meteorological services were analyzed by using Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the principle of information availability in behavioral economics. The results show that users' needs for meteorological services follow certain laws,and the public's needs for meteorological information are driven by physiological needs firstly and then by safety needs,while they are driven by upper needs finally. Meanwhile,users' needs for meteorological services have particularity.Under special backgrounds,there are certain differences between users' needs and laws of basic needs,and users' needs are inconsistent with the " ideal needs" of meteorological departments. Studying the laws and particularity of differences between users' needs for meteorological services in detail is conducive to a survey of the public's needs for meteorological services and improvement of meteorological service quality.展开更多
The rapid development of the social economy and the urgent needs of building a low-carbon, ecologic and livable city ask for a higher requirement for urban meteorological service, which requires higher, better and mor...The rapid development of the social economy and the urgent needs of building a low-carbon, ecologic and livable city ask for a higher requirement for urban meteorological service, which requires higher, better and more specialized service. To Shenzhen, the year of2011 is featured by ＂Universiade＂ and ＂Quality＂. In this year, the first national meteorological service standardization pilot and demonstration unit is stationed in Shenzhen, which has more far-reaching significance, richer connotation and heavier responsibility.展开更多
Based on conventional meteorological observation data,radar data and numerical forecast product data,the causes of the first large-scale,high-intensity and long-duration rainstorm in Dehong Prefecture during May 11-16...Based on conventional meteorological observation data,radar data and numerical forecast product data,the causes of the first large-scale,high-intensity and long-duration rainstorm in Dehong Prefecture during May 11-16,2022 were analyzed by using the weather dynamic diagnosis and analysis method.The results show that the rainstorm process was caused by strong uplift and condensation in the west and north of Yingjiang under the background of dry and cold northwest air circulation at 500 hPa,the absence of obvious influence of the south branch trough at 700 hPa,and strong southwest jet at 850 hPa.The southwest jet in the boundary layer provided sufficient warm water vapor,unstable energy and uplifting conditions for the rainstorm.Low-level convergence,high-level divergence and strong upward movement in the whole layer were conducive to the uplift and condensation of a large number of warm and humid air in the northwest of Yingjiang in Dehong Prefecture,which enhanced the development of mesoscale convective system(MCS)and prolonged the life history ofβmesoscale convective system.The application of satellite,radar and other mesoscale data has an important reference value for the tracking,correction,forecast and early warning of the rainstorm process.展开更多
In this paper,the design idea,working process and functional characteristics of Nanjing Urban Specialized Meteorological Service System are systematically described.Some advanced techniques,such as Internet/Intranet(W...In this paper,the design idea,working process and functional characteristics of Nanjing Urban Specialized Meteorological Service System are systematically described.Some advanced techniques,such as Internet/Intranet(WWW)technique,Active Server Pages(ASP)design and Automatic Voice Composition etc.,are adopted here.By using Opening TCP/IP Agreement.the system realizes connecting the three networks of Novell,Windows NT and 9210 project (Meteorological Satellite Integrated Application Professional System)with ground meteorological special telephone line,thus the new process for collecting and processing data,making and disseminating specialized meteorological information,serving and managing users is established.展开更多
In order to strengthen the construction of forestry meteorological service capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological services,the national forestry meteorological disaster risk survey and service ben...In order to strengthen the construction of forestry meteorological service capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological services,the national forestry meteorological disaster risk survey and service benefit assessment were carried out from November 2016 to May2017. A total of 196 risk sites in Guangxi were collected by means of questionnaire survey,expert evaluation and field survey. The results showed that fire,pest and wind hazards are the main types of risk points in Guangxi. The survey showed that there were 77 monitoring stations around the disaster risk sites belonging to the Forestry Sector,which mainly monitor fire hazards,while other disasters had no monitoring point yet. Early warning facilities were still constantly improving. The meteorological disasters that affecting forestry production were drought,gale,and heavy rainfall,and the main meteorological hazard factors were temperature,wind speed,and precipitation. Forest fire prevention,forestry resources development and utilization,forestation and tending demand for meteorological services were relatively large. It was hoped that forestry meteorological service products would be obtained through telephone,SMS and early warning systems. In addition,experts objectivly evaluated the contribution rate of meteorological services in Guangxi. The contribution rate of forest meteorological services in the whole region was8. 41%. The scale of Guangxi's total forestry output value was 31. 478 billion yuan in 2016. According to the calculation of this value,the service benefit value had reached 2. 647 billion yuan. In conclusion,strengthening the cooperation in forestry meteorological monitoring,technology development,and emergency response,and further improving forestry meteorological services and effective reducing forestry disaster losses are the top priorities of the meteorological department.展开更多
Satellite remote sensing is essential for solar energy meteorology.The 14-channel Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager of the Fengyun-4 series of satellites performs a full-disc scan over greater China every 15 min...Satellite remote sensing is essential for solar energy meteorology.The 14-channel Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager of the Fengyun-4 series of satellites performs a full-disc scan over greater China every 15 min,providing highgranularity information that allows the retrieval of cloud properties,aerosol optical depth,and precipitable water vapor content,which can facilitate the acquisition of surface solar irradiance components through physical methods.Machinelearning methods have also shown potential in providing accurate end-to-end surface solar radiation retrievals.Albeit the physical principles of irradiance retrieval and machine-learning algorithms are fairly well known,the public service concerning disseminating the irradiance product to the energy and power industry still lacks robustness and consistency.In this perspective article,the status quo of Fengyun-4 irradiance products is first reviewed.Then,from the perspective of solar resource assessment and forecasting,three fundamental characteristics of the kind of irradiance products that are most serviceable to the solar energy sector are identified,namely,coverage,timeliness,and accessibility.Finally,an outlook on the new-generation Fengyun radiation service is put forward,and the prospective scientific and practical challenges are elaborated.展开更多
Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from ...Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from 2020 to 2022,the meteorological and environmental conditions of a thunderstorm asthma event in Yulin City in northern Shaanxi on September 9,2022 were analyzed.The results show that the strong convective weather was accompanied by a strong thunderstorm,lightning,gusts,short-time heavy precipitation and small hail,and the convective activity lasted for nearly 7 h.The short-term abrupt change of allergenic substances such as artemisia pollen caused by lightning,gusts and precipitation,the sudden drop in temperature,the inversion near the surface and the stimulation of cold air were the key meteorological conditions for the subsequent outbreak of asthma.In early September in 2022,the daily average pollen concentration in Yulin City was up to 1067.9 particles/1000 mm^(2),which was 113.3%and 41.2%higher than that of the same period in 2021 and 2020,respectively.The day before the thunderstorm,the pollen concentration soared to 2680 particles/1000 mm^(2),reaching the maximum of the year.The synergistic effect of the thunderstorm event and the sharp increase in pollen concentration on the previous day provided the background of heavy pollen pollution for this outbreak of thunderstorm asthma.O_(3)concentration was consistently high on the day of thunderstorm and the day before,and the peaks of O_(3)and PM 10 concentration appeared subsequently in the afternoon of the day,which became the background of air pollution for the asthma outbreak.展开更多
Video imagery enables both qualitative characterization and quantitative retrieval of low-visibility conditions.These phenomena exhibit complex nonlinear dependencies on atmospheric processes,particularly during moist...Video imagery enables both qualitative characterization and quantitative retrieval of low-visibility conditions.These phenomena exhibit complex nonlinear dependencies on atmospheric processes,particularly during moisture-driven weather events such as fog,rain,and snow.To address this challenge,we propose a dual-branch neural architecture that synergistically processes optical imagery and multi-source meteorological data(temperature,humidity,and wind speed).The framework employs a convolutional neural network(CNN)branch to extract visibility-related visual features from video imagery sequences,while a parallel artificial neural network(ANN)branch decodes nonlinear relationships among the meteorological factors.Cross-modal feature fusion is achieved through an adaptive weighting layer.To validate the framework,multimodal Backpropagation-VGG(BP-VGG)and Backpropagation-ResNet(BP-ResNet)models are developed and trained/tested using historical imagery and meteorological observations from Nanjing Lukou International Airport.The results demonstrate that the multimodal networks reduce retrieval errors by approximately 8%–10%compared to unimodal networks relying solely on imagery.Among the multimodal models,BP-ResNet exhibits the best performance with a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 8.5%.Analysis of typical case studies reveals that visibility fluctuates rapidly while meteorological factors change gradually,highlighting the crucial role of high-frequency imaging data in intelligent visibility retrieval models.The superior performance of BP-ResNet over BP-VGG is attributed to its use of residual blocks,which enables BP-ResNet to excel in multimodal processing by effectively leveraging data complementarity for synergistic improvements.This study presents an end-to-end intelligent visibility inversion framework that directly retrieves visibility values,enhancing its applicability across industries.However,while this approach boosts accuracy and applicability,its performance in critical low-visibility scenarios remains suboptimal,necessitating further research into more advanced retrieval techniques—particularly under extreme visibility conditions.展开更多
During the winter of 2023/24,three distinct snowfall events occurred in eastern China,significantly impacting agriculture and transportation.The ability to provide subseasonal predictions with lead times beyond the we...During the winter of 2023/24,three distinct snowfall events occurred in eastern China,significantly impacting agriculture and transportation.The ability to provide subseasonal predictions with lead times beyond the weather timescale(longer than one week)is essential for effective disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we assess the prediction skills of three subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)models from the S2S Prediction project regarding the three snowfall processes during the 2023/24 winter season,and identify the key sources of predictability for such events occurring over eastern China.The surface air temperature(SAT)and precipitation distribution for the three snowfall processes were successfully reproduced up to a lead time of 10–15 and 10 days,respectively.Since the skill in predicting snowfall is reliant on both SAT and precipitation predictions,all three S2S models therefore failed to predict the three snowfall processes beyond the weather timescale.The capacity in capturing Eurasian midlatitude transient Rossby waves and tropical convection anomalies determines the ability of the models to predict snowfall;inaccuracies in modeling these circulation systems result in an underestimation of SAT and precipitation anomalies beyond 15 and 10 days,respectively.Singular value decomposition analysis based on winter seasons from 1991/92 to 2023/24 further identified the coupling modes that exist between Eurasian midlatitude Rossby waves and SAT over eastern China,as well as between tropical convection and precipitation over the same region.These findings suggest that the configurations of tropical and extratropical signals provide universal subseasonal predictability sources for winter snowfall over eastern China.展开更多
On August 1,2022,a rainstorm process occurred in Bayannur City,Inner Mongolia.An extreme precipitation event occurred in Wuyuan County,Urat Middle Banner and Urat Front Banner,causing rainstorm,flood,strong convective...On August 1,2022,a rainstorm process occurred in Bayannur City,Inner Mongolia.An extreme precipitation event occurred in Wuyuan County,Urat Middle Banner and Urat Front Banner,causing rainstorm,flood,strong convective wind and other disasters,thereby resulting in crop damage,livestock death and other losses.Meteorological departments made a series of forecast and early warning,meteorological service and basin joint prevention for the rainstorm process,set an example for dealing with the rainstorm disaster,and accumulated experience for the forecast service of rainstorm in future.展开更多
The Microwave Land Surface Emissivity(MLSE)atlas and instantaneous simulation of all-sky/all-surface MLSE are important prerequisites for satellite data assimilation.A ten-day/month synthesized FengYun-3D MLSE atlas(N...The Microwave Land Surface Emissivity(MLSE)atlas and instantaneous simulation of all-sky/all-surface MLSE are important prerequisites for satellite data assimilation.A ten-day/month synthesized FengYun-3D MLSE atlas(New_FY3D)was constructed by the two global MLSE daily product datasets,clear-sky(FY-3D1)and clear/cloudy(FY-3D2),which were retrieved from the same FY-3D MicroWave Radiation Imager(MWRI)Level-1 brightness temperature(BT)data from 2021 to 2022,respectively.Then,a set of global MLSE label samples based on the New_FY3D,including 14 surface geophysical parameters,was obtained for an instantaneous global MLSE simulation at a 0.10°spatial resolution by adopting the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)machine learning method.Finally,the FengYun-3F(FY-3F)MWRI-II BT simulations using the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)based on the above different MLSE products were evaluated.The results show that the New_FY3D atlas performs well,and the BT simulation at the top of atmosphere is better than that of FY-3D1,FY-3D2,and the international mainstream TELSEM2(Version 2.0 for a Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivities in the Microwaves)atlas.Surface roughness,vegetation coverage,land cover type,and snow cover are vital parameters for MLSE simulation.The XGBoost model can accurately simulate all-sky/all-surface MLSE instantaneously over the frequency range 10.65–89.0 GHz.The average simulation determination coefficients(R^(2))under clear-sky and cloud-sky conditions are 0.925 and 0.901,respectively,and the average root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)are 0.018 and 0.021,respectively.Large simulation errors occur in permanent wetland,ice and snow,and urban and built-up areas.With a standard deviation of 6.6 K,the BT simulation based on an XGBoost simulated MLSE is better than those based on New_FY3D and TELSEM2.展开更多
AdshtT Marine stratocumulus clouds profoundly affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation over extensive oceanic areas.Yet,after using a large-eddy simulation(LES)and a Lagrangian microphysics schem...AdshtT Marine stratocumulus clouds profoundly affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation over extensive oceanic areas.Yet,after using a large-eddy simulation(LES)and a Lagrangian microphysics scheme(Super-Droplet Method,SDM)for entrainment-mixing studies,uncertainty remains in the grid resolution and super-droplet number concentration(SDNC)required for accurate homogeneity capture.This study analyzes the homogeneous mixing degree(HMD)and the Damkohler numbe(Da)in stratocumulus using an LES with SDM,from microphysical and dynamical perspectives,respectively.Results show that HMD and Da both display a top-to-base gradient,with more intense inhomogeneity near the cloud top and relatively homogeneous conditions toward the base,although the upper region i more complex.Even at a fine horizontal resolution of 12.5 m and vertical resolution of 2.5 m,HMD remains sensitive and does not converge,whereas Da converges at coarser grid spacings(up to horizontal and vertical spacings of 25 m anc 10 m,respectively)in the mid-cloud region.Similarly,HMD requires an SDNC well above 128 per cell for near-complete convergence,while Da converges once SDNC exceeds about I6 per cell.This difference arises because HMD depends on microphysical details,thereby demanding a high SDNC to capture local droplet inhomogeneities,whereas Da reflects turbulence-evaporation timescales that converge more readily once extreme droplet gradients are resolved.We further find that HMD and Da exhibit a significant negative correlation,with stronger anti-correlations emerging under finer spatial resolutions,reinforcing their complementary roles in diagnosing mixing regimes.Overall,these findings provide guidelines for selecting numerical configurations in entrainment-mixing simulations,ensuring that both turbulence-driven and microphysical processes are adequately resolved,.展开更多
Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation, NCEP reanalysis data and atmospheric composition observation, a comprehensive analysis of the three kinds of persistent fog and haze in eastern China in Ja...Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation, NCEP reanalysis data and atmospheric composition observation, a comprehensive analysis of the three kinds of persistent fog and haze in eastern China in January 2013 was carried out. The results show that the process of persistent fog and haze is in the background of static weather, and the zonal circulation in the middle and high latitudes is not conducive to the south of the cold air. In the eastern part of China, near-surface wind speed is low under the controlled of pressure field, which is conducive to the formation and maintenance of haze. The formation of inversion layer, the height of the mixed layer, the stratified structure of the upper dry layer, the ground wind speed and so on can represent the static stability of the atmosphere. In the actual forecast, fog and haze can be distinguished from the angle of relative humidity, PM2.5 concentration, diurnal variation characteristics, mixed layer height and energy structure, industrial structure and local and surrounding economic development level.展开更多
Based on data of meteorological elements in the meteorological station in North Yandang Mountains during 1960- 2013,temporal variations in days of sea of clouds over Yandang Mountains in nearly 50 years and their rela...Based on data of meteorological elements in the meteorological station in North Yandang Mountains during 1960- 2013,temporal variations in days of sea of clouds over Yandang Mountains in nearly 50 years and their relation with air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and wind speed were analyzed. The results showed that annual average days of sea of clouds over Yandang Mountains were 164. 92 d,and the maximum and minimum were 215 and 58 d,so there was a big difference between various years. The days of sea of clouds were the most in spring,and average days of sea of clouds（ average days of sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80%） were 50. 89 d（ 32. 77 d）,while they were the least in autumn. There was an obvious positive correlation between the days of sea of clouds and relative humidity. Precipitation occurred the day before or on the day when sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80% formed. On the day when sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80% appeared,average relative humidity was ≥80%,and average wind speed was ≤4. 5 m/s.展开更多
基金Supported by Soft Science Research Project of Hubei Meteorological Bureau in 2018(02)
文摘Socialization of meteorological services is important guarantee of servicing national major development strategy,strategic selection of adapting to national reform,urgent need of meeting the development of related industries,and necessary way of solving public demand on meticulous,targeted and personalized meteorological services. At present,socialization construction of meteorological services in China still has many problems,such as weak service capability of intelligent weather,inadequate and imbalanced urban-rural and regional development,insufficient sharing and opening of meteorological data,and deficient role of social organization. It should vigorously impel socialization of meteorological services by exploring sharing and opening mechanism of basic meteorological data,establishing policy,regulation and standard system adapting to socialization of meteorological services,establishing operation mechanism for socialization of meteorological services of government dominance combining market,enriching content and means of meteorological socialization service.
基金Supported by the Program of the Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province(2011C23052)
文摘With complex terrain and developed economy, Zhejiang Province has suffered a lot from the frequent geological disasters, which have done great damages to the construction and development of the whole province. Therefore, it is particularly important to improve the geological disasters meteorological service. Electronic sand table system, a high-tech product of three-dimensional visualization, can provide the geological disaster meteorological service with the intuitive and visual application environment. In this study, we developed electronic sand table system based on GIS and established the geological disasters meteorological service database. In addition, we also analyzed and discussed the applications of meteorological service in online weather forecast, meteorological warning message, and multimedia meteorological electronic display. The application of electronic sand table system in geological disaster meteorological services for disaster prevention and mitigation is of great importance that it provides intuitive terrain analysis data for the forecast of geological disasters warning, which greatly enhances the ability of geological disasters meteorological service.
文摘The continuous rainy precipitation process from February to March in 2019 was selected to analyze the effect of meteorological service in Tangpu Reservoir basin,so as to sum up service experience and then lay a better foundation for subsequent services.In response to the rainy weather from December 2018 to early 2019,three rounds of flood discharge were carried out in Tangpu Reservoir.During February-March in 2019,the hit rate of short-term area rainfall forecast for Tangpu Reservoir was 80.0%.Compared with the median of forecast interval,the average absolute error was 7.6 mm,and the relative error was 32.7%.The large deviation in the forecast from March 27 to 28 was deeply analyzed,and it is found that the main reasons were excessive reliance on and trust in a single model,insufficient correction of the actual situation,and insufficient judgment of the nature of precipitation.For the future reservoir meteorological service,three aspects of thinking were put forward,such as further strengthening the sharing of hydrological and meteorological information,improving the forecasting ability,and deepening the research of runoff forecast models.
文摘To study the temporal and spatial changes of heat resources to serve agricultural production and economic development. The climate data from 1958 to 2017 were selected, and the temporal and spatial changes of heat resources in Liaoning, China were analyzed by using the method of climate diagnosis and analysis. The results show that: the southern coastal area of Liaoning has the most heat resources, the northwestern hilly area and the eastern mountainous area the least, and the central plain area in the middle distribution pattern;compared with 1958-1980, 1981-2017 ≥0°C, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, etc. The value line is advanced 100-160km northward. The accumulated temperature of ≥0°C and ≥10°C in Liaoning experienced abrupt changes in climate in 1993 and 1994, and the climate abrupt change in the southern coastal area was earlier than that in the inland. , the increase in the northwestern hilly area and the eastern mountainous area is less than that in the central plain area and the southern coastal area. The study on the impact on meteorological services found that the increase or decrease of heat resources has a significant impact on agro-meteorological services, which can prolong the growing season of crops, relatively reduce the damage of frost, improve comprehensive utilization of land, and increase crop yields;at the same time, with the increase of heat resources and the northward expansion of the isoline of accumulated temperature, the area affected by pests and diseases has expanded, which has aggravated the harm to agriculture economic burden.
基金National Science Foundation of China(91637105,41775048 and 41475041)National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507800)Research on Tourism Traffic Meteorological Service Products in Heilongjiang Province(HQZD2017004)
文摘An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index.Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators merged.For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one another.Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.
文摘The present situation of meteorological services for ecological tourism in Shaanxi Province was analyzed firstly,and then the problems existing in the meteorological services were analyzed.Finally,corresponding measures were put forward.
基金Supported by the Meteorological Science and Technology Program of Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau(2015YB04)
文摘Based on the survey data of public meteorological services,differences between users' needs for public meteorological services were analyzed by using Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the principle of information availability in behavioral economics. The results show that users' needs for meteorological services follow certain laws,and the public's needs for meteorological information are driven by physiological needs firstly and then by safety needs,while they are driven by upper needs finally. Meanwhile,users' needs for meteorological services have particularity.Under special backgrounds,there are certain differences between users' needs and laws of basic needs,and users' needs are inconsistent with the " ideal needs" of meteorological departments. Studying the laws and particularity of differences between users' needs for meteorological services in detail is conducive to a survey of the public's needs for meteorological services and improvement of meteorological service quality.
文摘The rapid development of the social economy and the urgent needs of building a low-carbon, ecologic and livable city ask for a higher requirement for urban meteorological service, which requires higher, better and more specialized service. To Shenzhen, the year of2011 is featured by ＂Universiade＂ and ＂Quality＂. In this year, the first national meteorological service standardization pilot and demonstration unit is stationed in Shenzhen, which has more far-reaching significance, richer connotation and heavier responsibility.
基金Supported by the Self-funded Research Project of Yunnan Meteorological Bureau in 2025(YZ202554)Key Open Laboratory of Heavy Precipitation in River Basins of the China Meteorological Administration(2023BHR-Y09).
文摘Based on conventional meteorological observation data,radar data and numerical forecast product data,the causes of the first large-scale,high-intensity and long-duration rainstorm in Dehong Prefecture during May 11-16,2022 were analyzed by using the weather dynamic diagnosis and analysis method.The results show that the rainstorm process was caused by strong uplift and condensation in the west and north of Yingjiang under the background of dry and cold northwest air circulation at 500 hPa,the absence of obvious influence of the south branch trough at 700 hPa,and strong southwest jet at 850 hPa.The southwest jet in the boundary layer provided sufficient warm water vapor,unstable energy and uplifting conditions for the rainstorm.Low-level convergence,high-level divergence and strong upward movement in the whole layer were conducive to the uplift and condensation of a large number of warm and humid air in the northwest of Yingjiang in Dehong Prefecture,which enhanced the development of mesoscale convective system(MCS)and prolonged the life history ofβmesoscale convective system.The application of satellite,radar and other mesoscale data has an important reference value for the tracking,correction,forecast and early warning of the rainstorm process.
文摘In this paper,the design idea,working process and functional characteristics of Nanjing Urban Specialized Meteorological Service System are systematically described.Some advanced techniques,such as Internet/Intranet(WWW)technique,Active Server Pages(ASP)design and Automatic Voice Composition etc.,are adopted here.By using Opening TCP/IP Agreement.the system realizes connecting the three networks of Novell,Windows NT and 9210 project (Meteorological Satellite Integrated Application Professional System)with ground meteorological special telephone line,thus the new process for collecting and processing data,making and disseminating specialized meteorological information,serving and managing users is established.
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation(41575051)
文摘In order to strengthen the construction of forestry meteorological service capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological services,the national forestry meteorological disaster risk survey and service benefit assessment were carried out from November 2016 to May2017. A total of 196 risk sites in Guangxi were collected by means of questionnaire survey,expert evaluation and field survey. The results showed that fire,pest and wind hazards are the main types of risk points in Guangxi. The survey showed that there were 77 monitoring stations around the disaster risk sites belonging to the Forestry Sector,which mainly monitor fire hazards,while other disasters had no monitoring point yet. Early warning facilities were still constantly improving. The meteorological disasters that affecting forestry production were drought,gale,and heavy rainfall,and the main meteorological hazard factors were temperature,wind speed,and precipitation. Forest fire prevention,forestry resources development and utilization,forestation and tending demand for meteorological services were relatively large. It was hoped that forestry meteorological service products would be obtained through telephone,SMS and early warning systems. In addition,experts objectivly evaluated the contribution rate of meteorological services in Guangxi. The contribution rate of forest meteorological services in the whole region was8. 41%. The scale of Guangxi's total forestry output value was 31. 478 billion yuan in 2016. According to the calculation of this value,the service benefit value had reached 2. 647 billion yuan. In conclusion,strengthening the cooperation in forestry meteorological monitoring,technology development,and emergency response,and further improving forestry meteorological services and effective reducing forestry disaster losses are the top priorities of the meteorological department.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(project no.42375192)。
文摘Satellite remote sensing is essential for solar energy meteorology.The 14-channel Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager of the Fengyun-4 series of satellites performs a full-disc scan over greater China every 15 min,providing highgranularity information that allows the retrieval of cloud properties,aerosol optical depth,and precipitable water vapor content,which can facilitate the acquisition of surface solar irradiance components through physical methods.Machinelearning methods have also shown potential in providing accurate end-to-end surface solar radiation retrievals.Albeit the physical principles of irradiance retrieval and machine-learning algorithms are fairly well known,the public service concerning disseminating the irradiance product to the energy and power industry still lacks robustness and consistency.In this perspective article,the status quo of Fengyun-4 irradiance products is first reviewed.Then,from the perspective of solar resource assessment and forecasting,three fundamental characteristics of the kind of irradiance products that are most serviceable to the solar energy sector are identified,namely,coverage,timeliness,and accessibility.Finally,an outlook on the new-generation Fengyun radiation service is put forward,and the prospective scientific and practical challenges are elaborated.
基金Supported by the People's Government of Yulin City(2023-SF-09)Yulin Meteorological Bureau(2024Y-02)Open Research Fund Project of Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment and Meteorology in the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau(2022Y-21).
文摘Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from 2020 to 2022,the meteorological and environmental conditions of a thunderstorm asthma event in Yulin City in northern Shaanxi on September 9,2022 were analyzed.The results show that the strong convective weather was accompanied by a strong thunderstorm,lightning,gusts,short-time heavy precipitation and small hail,and the convective activity lasted for nearly 7 h.The short-term abrupt change of allergenic substances such as artemisia pollen caused by lightning,gusts and precipitation,the sudden drop in temperature,the inversion near the surface and the stimulation of cold air were the key meteorological conditions for the subsequent outbreak of asthma.In early September in 2022,the daily average pollen concentration in Yulin City was up to 1067.9 particles/1000 mm^(2),which was 113.3%and 41.2%higher than that of the same period in 2021 and 2020,respectively.The day before the thunderstorm,the pollen concentration soared to 2680 particles/1000 mm^(2),reaching the maximum of the year.The synergistic effect of the thunderstorm event and the sharp increase in pollen concentration on the previous day provided the background of heavy pollen pollution for this outbreak of thunderstorm asthma.O_(3)concentration was consistently high on the day of thunderstorm and the day before,and the peaks of O_(3)and PM 10 concentration appeared subsequently in the afternoon of the day,which became the background of air pollution for the asthma outbreak.
基金Foundation of Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(KF2023ZD03-02)China Meteorological Administration Innovation development project(CXFZ2025J116)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205197)Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2022Y023,2022Y025)。
文摘Video imagery enables both qualitative characterization and quantitative retrieval of low-visibility conditions.These phenomena exhibit complex nonlinear dependencies on atmospheric processes,particularly during moisture-driven weather events such as fog,rain,and snow.To address this challenge,we propose a dual-branch neural architecture that synergistically processes optical imagery and multi-source meteorological data(temperature,humidity,and wind speed).The framework employs a convolutional neural network(CNN)branch to extract visibility-related visual features from video imagery sequences,while a parallel artificial neural network(ANN)branch decodes nonlinear relationships among the meteorological factors.Cross-modal feature fusion is achieved through an adaptive weighting layer.To validate the framework,multimodal Backpropagation-VGG(BP-VGG)and Backpropagation-ResNet(BP-ResNet)models are developed and trained/tested using historical imagery and meteorological observations from Nanjing Lukou International Airport.The results demonstrate that the multimodal networks reduce retrieval errors by approximately 8%–10%compared to unimodal networks relying solely on imagery.Among the multimodal models,BP-ResNet exhibits the best performance with a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 8.5%.Analysis of typical case studies reveals that visibility fluctuates rapidly while meteorological factors change gradually,highlighting the crucial role of high-frequency imaging data in intelligent visibility retrieval models.The superior performance of BP-ResNet over BP-VGG is attributed to its use of residual blocks,which enables BP-ResNet to excel in multimodal processing by effectively leveraging data complementarity for synergistic improvements.This study presents an end-to-end intelligent visibility inversion framework that directly retrieves visibility values,enhancing its applicability across industries.However,while this approach boosts accuracy and applicability,its performance in critical low-visibility scenarios remains suboptimal,necessitating further research into more advanced retrieval techniques—particularly under extreme visibility conditions.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801702)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20250045&BK20231110)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(Grant No.CXFZ2025Q007).
文摘During the winter of 2023/24,three distinct snowfall events occurred in eastern China,significantly impacting agriculture and transportation.The ability to provide subseasonal predictions with lead times beyond the weather timescale(longer than one week)is essential for effective disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we assess the prediction skills of three subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)models from the S2S Prediction project regarding the three snowfall processes during the 2023/24 winter season,and identify the key sources of predictability for such events occurring over eastern China.The surface air temperature(SAT)and precipitation distribution for the three snowfall processes were successfully reproduced up to a lead time of 10–15 and 10 days,respectively.Since the skill in predicting snowfall is reliant on both SAT and precipitation predictions,all three S2S models therefore failed to predict the three snowfall processes beyond the weather timescale.The capacity in capturing Eurasian midlatitude transient Rossby waves and tropical convection anomalies determines the ability of the models to predict snowfall;inaccuracies in modeling these circulation systems result in an underestimation of SAT and precipitation anomalies beyond 15 and 10 days,respectively.Singular value decomposition analysis based on winter seasons from 1991/92 to 2023/24 further identified the coupling modes that exist between Eurasian midlatitude Rossby waves and SAT over eastern China,as well as between tropical convection and precipitation over the same region.These findings suggest that the configurations of tropical and extratropical signals provide universal subseasonal predictability sources for winter snowfall over eastern China.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China(2019BS04001,2021MS04019)。
文摘On August 1,2022,a rainstorm process occurred in Bayannur City,Inner Mongolia.An extreme precipitation event occurred in Wuyuan County,Urat Middle Banner and Urat Front Banner,causing rainstorm,flood,strong convective wind and other disasters,thereby resulting in crop damage,livestock death and other losses.Meteorological departments made a series of forecast and early warning,meteorological service and basin joint prevention for the rainstorm process,set an example for dealing with the rainstorm disaster,and accumulated experience for the forecast service of rainstorm in future.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2242211)the Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation Major Project(Grant No.2021JC0009).
文摘The Microwave Land Surface Emissivity(MLSE)atlas and instantaneous simulation of all-sky/all-surface MLSE are important prerequisites for satellite data assimilation.A ten-day/month synthesized FengYun-3D MLSE atlas(New_FY3D)was constructed by the two global MLSE daily product datasets,clear-sky(FY-3D1)and clear/cloudy(FY-3D2),which were retrieved from the same FY-3D MicroWave Radiation Imager(MWRI)Level-1 brightness temperature(BT)data from 2021 to 2022,respectively.Then,a set of global MLSE label samples based on the New_FY3D,including 14 surface geophysical parameters,was obtained for an instantaneous global MLSE simulation at a 0.10°spatial resolution by adopting the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)machine learning method.Finally,the FengYun-3F(FY-3F)MWRI-II BT simulations using the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)based on the above different MLSE products were evaluated.The results show that the New_FY3D atlas performs well,and the BT simulation at the top of atmosphere is better than that of FY-3D1,FY-3D2,and the international mainstream TELSEM2(Version 2.0 for a Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivities in the Microwaves)atlas.Surface roughness,vegetation coverage,land cover type,and snow cover are vital parameters for MLSE simulation.The XGBoost model can accurately simulate all-sky/all-surface MLSE instantaneously over the frequency range 10.65–89.0 GHz.The average simulation determination coefficients(R^(2))under clear-sky and cloud-sky conditions are 0.925 and 0.901,respectively,and the average root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)are 0.018 and 0.021,respectively.Large simulation errors occur in permanent wetland,ice and snow,and urban and built-up areas.With a standard deviation of 6.6 K,the BT simulation based on an XGBoost simulated MLSE is better than those based on New_FY3D and TELSEM2.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42325503 and 42230604)The appointment of Chunsong Lu at Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology is partially supported by the Jiangsu Specially-Appointed Professor(Grant No.R2024T01).This research partly used the computational resources of Hokkaido University through the HPCI System Research Project(project IDs:hp200078,hp210059,hp220062,hp230166,and hp240151)and the computer facilities of the Center for Cooperative Work on Data Science and Computational Science,University of Hyogo.Shin-ichiro SHIMA was supported by JSPS KAKENHI,Grant 20H00225 and 23H00149and JST(Moonshot R and D)(Grant JPMJMS2286).We acknowledge the High-Performance Computing Center of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology for their support of this work.This study was also supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab,2024-EL-PT-000615).Chongzhi YIN would like to thank Lei Zhu for his generous support and informative discussions.
文摘AdshtT Marine stratocumulus clouds profoundly affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation over extensive oceanic areas.Yet,after using a large-eddy simulation(LES)and a Lagrangian microphysics scheme(Super-Droplet Method,SDM)for entrainment-mixing studies,uncertainty remains in the grid resolution and super-droplet number concentration(SDNC)required for accurate homogeneity capture.This study analyzes the homogeneous mixing degree(HMD)and the Damkohler numbe(Da)in stratocumulus using an LES with SDM,from microphysical and dynamical perspectives,respectively.Results show that HMD and Da both display a top-to-base gradient,with more intense inhomogeneity near the cloud top and relatively homogeneous conditions toward the base,although the upper region i more complex.Even at a fine horizontal resolution of 12.5 m and vertical resolution of 2.5 m,HMD remains sensitive and does not converge,whereas Da converges at coarser grid spacings(up to horizontal and vertical spacings of 25 m anc 10 m,respectively)in the mid-cloud region.Similarly,HMD requires an SDNC well above 128 per cell for near-complete convergence,while Da converges once SDNC exceeds about I6 per cell.This difference arises because HMD depends on microphysical details,thereby demanding a high SDNC to capture local droplet inhomogeneities,whereas Da reflects turbulence-evaporation timescales that converge more readily once extreme droplet gradients are resolved.We further find that HMD and Da exhibit a significant negative correlation,with stronger anti-correlations emerging under finer spatial resolutions,reinforcing their complementary roles in diagnosing mixing regimes.Overall,these findings provide guidelines for selecting numerical configurations in entrainment-mixing simulations,ensuring that both turbulence-driven and microphysical processes are adequately resolved,.
文摘Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation, NCEP reanalysis data and atmospheric composition observation, a comprehensive analysis of the three kinds of persistent fog and haze in eastern China in January 2013 was carried out. The results show that the process of persistent fog and haze is in the background of static weather, and the zonal circulation in the middle and high latitudes is not conducive to the south of the cold air. In the eastern part of China, near-surface wind speed is low under the controlled of pressure field, which is conducive to the formation and maintenance of haze. The formation of inversion layer, the height of the mixed layer, the stratified structure of the upper dry layer, the ground wind speed and so on can represent the static stability of the atmosphere. In the actual forecast, fog and haze can be distinguished from the angle of relative humidity, PM2.5 concentration, diurnal variation characteristics, mixed layer height and energy structure, industrial structure and local and surrounding economic development level.
基金Supported by the Key Project of Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau(2013ZD08)
文摘Based on data of meteorological elements in the meteorological station in North Yandang Mountains during 1960- 2013,temporal variations in days of sea of clouds over Yandang Mountains in nearly 50 years and their relation with air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and wind speed were analyzed. The results showed that annual average days of sea of clouds over Yandang Mountains were 164. 92 d,and the maximum and minimum were 215 and 58 d,so there was a big difference between various years. The days of sea of clouds were the most in spring,and average days of sea of clouds（ average days of sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80%） were 50. 89 d（ 32. 77 d）,while they were the least in autumn. There was an obvious positive correlation between the days of sea of clouds and relative humidity. Precipitation occurred the day before or on the day when sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80% formed. On the day when sea of clouds with low cloud cover ≥80% appeared,average relative humidity was ≥80%,and average wind speed was ≤4. 5 m/s.
