Improving the accuracy of the evaluation of the performance of wind farms in large wind power bases located in complex terrain under the actual atmosphere is crucial to the sustainable development of wind power.To thi...Improving the accuracy of the evaluation of the performance of wind farms in large wind power bases located in complex terrain under the actual atmosphere is crucial to the sustainable development of wind power.To this end,this study combined the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the Wind Farm Parameterization(WFP)method to investigate the wake characteristics and operational performance of large onshore wind farms in the complex terrain of Jiuquan City,Gansu Province,China.The research results showed that after verification,the systematic error of the WRF simulations was less than 3%.The WRF model and the WFP scheme simulated a significant warming phenomenon within the wind power base area,while a cooling effect was observed outside.The analysis of the wake effects indicated that the impact of PhaseⅠconstruction on PhaseⅡconstruction of the wind power base was minimal.During the operation of the entire wind power base,the wind speed within the wind farm decreased by approximately 10%,and the influence range of the predominant wind direction extended over a hundred kilometers downwind.The research conclusions provide a powerful scientific basis for optimizing design and operation,improving efficiency,minimizing the negative impacts on adjacent wind turbines,and ensuring the sustainable development of wind energy through dynamic planning and scientific assessment.展开更多
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(...Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].展开更多
A double-moment cloud microphysics scheme requires an assumption for cloud droplet size distributions(DSDs).However,since observations of cloud DSDs are limited,default values for shape parameters and cloud condensati...A double-moment cloud microphysics scheme requires an assumption for cloud droplet size distributions(DSDs).However,since observations of cloud DSDs are limited,default values for shape parameters and cloud condensation nuclei activation parameters are often used in numerical simulations.In this study,the effects of cloud DSDs on numerical simulations of warm stratiform precipitation around Tokyo are investigated using the Japan Meteorological Agency's non-hydrostatic model,which incorporates a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme.Simulations using the default cloud DSD showed higher cloud droplet number concentrations and lower radar reflectivity than observed data,suggesting that the default cloud DSD is too narrow.Simulations with a cloud DSD based on in situ cloud observations corrected these errors.In addition,observation-based cloud DSDs affected rainfall amounts through the autoconversion rate of cloud water and improved the threat scores.These results suggest that realistic cloud DSDs should be provided for double-moment cloud microphysics schemes in scientific studies.展开更多
The canopy temperature of rice at the flowering stage and the soil water content were investigated under different soil water treatments （the soil water contents were 24%, 55%, 90% and 175% at the flowering stage）. ...The canopy temperature of rice at the flowering stage and the soil water content were investigated under different soil water treatments （the soil water contents were 24%, 55%, 90% and 175% at the flowering stage）. The canopy temperature was lower than air temperature, and the soil water content significantly influenced the canopy temperature. The lower the soil water content, the higher the canopy temperature, the less the accumulative absolute value of canopy-air temperature difference. Moreover, the maximum difference between treatments and CK in the accumulative absolute value of canopy-air temperature difference appeared at 13：00 μm. in a day, thus, it could be considered as a suitable measuring time. Under the lowest water content treatment, the peak flowering occurred in the first three days （about 70% of panicles flowered）, resulting in shortened and lightened panicle of rice. As to the CK and the high water content treatments, the peak flowering appeared in the middle of flowering duration, with longer panicle length and higher panicle weight. Results indicated the lower the soil water content, the less the filled grain number and grain yield.展开更多
The surface and upper-level features associated with a sharp drop ofwintertime daily temperature over South Korea is investigated in this study. This sharp drop indaily temperature is called a cold surge and is one of...The surface and upper-level features associated with a sharp drop ofwintertime daily temperature over South Korea is investigated in this study. This sharp drop indaily temperature is called a cold surge and is one of the most hazardous weather phenomena in EastAsian winters. An upper-level baroclinic wave of 60° wavelength propagating eastward at a phasespeed of 12° longitude per day across the continent of northern China from the west of Lake Baikaltoward the eastern coast of China causes the outbreak of cold air over South Korea. The coolingassociated with the upper-level baroclinic jvave is found at all altitudes under the geopotentialheight-fall center near the tropopause. The development in the ridge seems to derive the earlyevolution of the eastward-propagating sinusoidal wave, whereas the trough is connected directly withthe tropospheric temperature-drop. An enhancement of the wintertime East Asian jet stream after theoutbreak of a cold surge is a response to the steep temperature gradient associated with thedeveloping baroclinic wave.展开更多
This paper examined the decadal mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variations of mean and extreme temperatures using daily temperature and relative humidity data from 589 stations over eastern China and South Korea...This paper examined the decadal mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variations of mean and extreme temperatures using daily temperature and relative humidity data from 589 stations over eastern China and South Korea between 1996-2005. The results show that the decadal mean Tm （mean daily mean temperature） and the TNn （minimum daily minimum temperature） increase from north to south; the opposite spatial gradient is found in the DTR （diurnal temperature range）; the value of the DTR over South Korea is in- between that over North China and the mid-low Yangtze River valley; the TXx （maximum daily maximum temperature） has a unique spatial distribution, with the largest value over eastern China. The highest standard deviation （STD） is located over northern China and the TNn has the largest area coverage of the high STD. The peak of the seasonal cycle for the Tm, TXx and TNn over South Korea （August） occurs one month later than that over eastern China （July）. The seasonal cycle of the DTR has two peaks （April and October）; the value in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley is larger than that in South Korea during July and August owing to the seasonal northward jump of the major monsoon rain band. The interannual variations of summertime temperature indices including the Tin, TXx, and DTR over South Korea are consistent （opposite） to that over northern （southern） China. For the wintertime temperature indices however, the variation over South Korea is consistent with that over eastern China.展开更多
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made ...This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions （＂initials＂, hereafter）, which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.展开更多
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has processed the data from the advanced TOVS (ATOVS) onboard NOAA-16 satellite since May 2001. The operational production utilizes the AAPP (ATOVS and AVHRR Processing Pa...The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has processed the data from the advanced TOVS (ATOVS) onboard NOAA-16 satellite since May 2001. The operational production utilizes the AAPP (ATOVS and AVHRR Processing Package) of EUMETSAT and IAPP (International ATOVS Processing Package) of the University of Wisconsin. For the initial guess profiles, the predicted fields (usually 6 to 12 hour forecasted fields) from the global aviation model of NOAA/NCEP are used. The average number of profiles retrieved from the ATOVS data is about 1,300 for each morning and afternoon orbit at about 18 and 06 UTC, respectively. The retrieved temperature and dew point temperatures are provided to forecasters in real time and used for initialization of prediction models. With the advanced microwave sensor (AMSU; Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), accuracy of the ATOVS products is expected to be better than that of the TOVS products, especially in cloudy conditions. Indeed, the preliminary results from a validation study with the collocated radiosonde data during a 8-month period, from May to December 2001, for the East Asia region show an improved accuracy of the ATOVS products for cloudy skies versus the TOVS, especially for higher altitudes. The RMS (Root Mean Square) difference between the ATOVS products and radiosonde data is about 1.3°C for both clear and cloudy conditions, except for near the ground and at higher altitudes, at around 200 hPa. There is no significant temporal variation of the error statistics at all pressure levels. In case of the water vapor mixing ratio, the largest difference is shown at lower altitudes, while the accuracy is much better for the clear sky cases than the cloudy sky cases. The bias and RMSE at lower altitudes is about 0.557 g kg<SUP>−1</SUP> and 2.5 g kg<SUP>−1</SUP> and decrease significantly with increasing altitude.展开更多
The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows lon...The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows longer. Consequently, the related 4—D variational data assimilation problems could be difficult to solve. A modified tangent linear model is built on the Mellor-Yamada turbulent closure (level 2.5) for 4-D variational data assimilation. For oceanic mixed layer model settings, the modified tangent linear model produces better finite amplitude, nonlinear perturbation than the full and simplified tangent linear models when the integration time is longer than one day. The corresponding variational data assimilation performances based on the adjoint of the modified tangent linear model are also improved compared with those adjoints of the full and simplified tangent linear models.展开更多
Satellite infrared(IR)sounder and imager measurements have become one of the main sources of data used by data assimilation systems to generate initial conditions for numerical weather prediction(NWP)models and atmosp...Satellite infrared(IR)sounder and imager measurements have become one of the main sources of data used by data assimilation systems to generate initial conditions for numerical weather prediction(NWP)models and atmospheric analysis/reanalysis.This paper reviews the development of satellite IR data assimilation in NWP in recent years,especially the assimilation of all-sky satellite IR observations.The major challenges and future directions are outlined and discussed.展开更多
Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correla...Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.展开更多
The modulation of twin tropical cyclogenesis in the Indian-western Pacific Oceans by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the onset period of 1997/98 ENSO is explored for the period of September 1996 to June 199...The modulation of twin tropical cyclogenesis in the Indian-western Pacific Oceans by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the onset period of 1997/98 ENSO is explored for the period of September 1996 to June 1997 based on daily OLR, NCEP/NCAR wind vector, and JTWC best track datasets. The MJO westerly wind burst associated with its eastward propagation can result in a series of tropical cyclogeneses in a multi-day interval. Only in the transition seasons are pairs of tropical cyclones observed in both the tropical sectors of the Indian-western Pacific Oceans. Two remarkable twin tropical cyclogeneses probably modulated by the MJO westerly wind burst are found: one is observed in the Indian Ocean in the middle of October 1996, and the other is observed in the Western Pacific Ocean in late May 1997. The twin tropical cyclogenesis in mid-October 1996 is observed when the super cloud cluster separates into two isolated clusters by the enhanced westerly wind, which is accompanied by two independent vortices in the equatorial tropical sectors. The other one, in late-May 1997, however, is characterized by one cyclonic flow that later results in another cyclonic cell in its opposite equatorial sector. Thus, there are two very important conditions for twin cyclogenesis: one is the MJO westerly wind straddling the equator, and the other is the integral super cloud cluster, which later splits into two cloud convective clusters with independent vortices.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India, by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over ...This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India, by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over Korea is negatively (significant at the 99% level) cor-related with the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India. In addition, coupled spatial modes be-tween the rainfall over Korea and India have been identified by the SVD analysis. The squared covariance fraction explained by the first mode is 70% and the correlation coefficient between the time coefficients of the two fields is significant at the 99% level, indicating that the coupled mode reflects a large part of the interaction between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India. The first mode clearly demon-strates the existence of a significant negative correlation between the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India and the rainfall over Korea.Possible mechanisms of this correlation are investigated by analyzing the variation of upper-level at-mospheric circulation associated with the Tibetan high using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.展开更多
The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to ha...The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to have large probability of heavy precipitation with the decrease of brightness temperature and the gradual increase of rainfall intensity; for areas of low temperature, the brightness temperature is better determined for atmosphere above rain gauge stations with multiple points sampling than with single point one; for the yearly first raining season, the threshold brightness temperature is set at 4.6℃ for indication of heavy precipitation in the Fujian area.展开更多
In this paper,a preliminary study is given on the drag (i.e.bulk transfer for momentum) coefficient,on the basis of data from four sets of AWS in Tibet during the first observational year from July 1993 to July 1994 a...In this paper,a preliminary study is given on the drag (i.e.bulk transfer for momentum) coefficient,on the basis of data from four sets of AWS in Tibet during the first observational year from July 1993 to July 1994 according to China Japan Asian Monsoon Cooperative Research Program.The results show that the drag coefficient over the Tibetan Plateau is 3.3 to 4.4×103.In addition,monthly and diurnal variations of drag coefficient and the relationship among the drag coefficients and the bulk Richardson number,surface roughness length and wind speed at 10 m height are discussed in detail.展开更多
[Objective]The research aimed to study the distribution characteristics of high temperature damage and its influence on the rice yield in the area along Huaihe River.[Method]The meteorological data of 10 stations in t...[Objective]The research aimed to study the distribution characteristics of high temperature damage and its influence on the rice yield in the area along Huaihe River.[Method]The meteorological data of 10 stations in the area along Huaihe River during 1965-2009 and the yield data of Anhui single-season middle rice during 1967-2006 were selected.The occurrence characteristic of summer high temperature weather and the intensity of high temperature damage in the area along Huaihe River were analyzed.Based on the previous high temperature damage index of rice,Changfeng County where was the typical rice planting zone in the area along Huaihe River was as the representation,and the yield damage loss rate risk of high temperature damage in Changfeng was analyzed by combining with the historical yield data.[Result]The high temperature weather in the area along Huaihe River frequently happened.The high temperature damage presented'N'shape trend from west to east.The occurrence frequency of high temperature weather in Huainan and Bengbu where were in the middle area along Huaihe River was more and was less in Huoqiu and Shouxian where were near the south mountain area of Anhui.The occurrence time mainly focused from the middle and last dekads of July to the first dekad of August after the plum rain.At this time,it was the booting,heading and flowering periods of single-season middle rice,and the influence on the rice yield was obvious.The damage loss rate of single-season middle rice yield in Changfeng County along Huaihe River continued to increase as the increasing of high temperature damage duration.But the occurrence probability decreased.The intensity grade of high temperature damage disaster loss rate which happened frequently concentrated mainly in levels I and II.The longer the high temperature damage duration in the reproductive growth stage of rice was,the bigger the damage loss rate was.But the corresponding occurrence probability was small,and vice versa.[Conclusion]The research provided the reference for assessing the high temperature disaster risk.展开更多
Light-absorbing impurities on glaciers are important factors that influence glacial surface albedo and accelerate glacier melt. In this study, the quantity of light-absorbing impurities on Keqikaer Glacier in western ...Light-absorbing impurities on glaciers are important factors that influence glacial surface albedo and accelerate glacier melt. In this study, the quantity of light-absorbing impurities on Keqikaer Glacier in western Tien Shan, Central Asia, was measured. We found that the average concentrations of black carbon was 2,180 ng/g, with a range from 250 ng/g to more than 10,000 ng/g. The average concentrations of organic carbon and mineral dust were 1,738 ng/g and 194 μg/g, respectively. Based on simulations performed with the Snow Ice Aerosol Radiative model simulations, black carbon and dust are responsible for approximately 64% and 9%, respectively, of the albedo reduction, and are associated with instantaneous radiative forcing of 323.18 W/m2(ranging from 142.16 to 619.25 W/m2) and 24.05 W/m2(ranging from 0.15 to69.77 W/m2), respectively. For different scenarios, the albedo and radiative forcing effect of black carbon is considerably greater than that of dust. The estimated radiative forcing at Keqikaer Glacier is higher than most similar values estimated by previous studies on the Tibetan Plateau, perhaps as a result of black carbon enrichment by melt scavenging. Light-absorbing impurities deposited on Keqikaer Glacier appear to mainly originate from central Asia, Siberia, western China(including the Taklimakan Desert) and parts of South Asia in summer, and from the Middle East and Central Asia in winter.A footprint analysis indicates that a large fraction(>60%) of the black carbon contributions on Keqikaer Glacier comes from anthropogenic sources. These results provide a scientific basis for regional mitigation efforts to reduce black carbon.展开更多
By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast canno...By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.展开更多
Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the ext...Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the extratropics reveals remarkably different features as the longitudinal tropical forcing region changes. The Rossby wave source (Positive) shows the largest maximum over East Asia in both years due to the persistent heating from the western Pacific warm pool area. However, the sink term shows contrasting features over the subtropics and extratropics between the two years. In the El Niño year, enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific produces the Rossby wave sink at 10°N and shifted eastward over the North Pacific, while in the La Niña year, the sink area is shifted westward over the North Pacific. The contrasting features between the two events in mean-eddy interaction appears especially over the downstream area of the East Asian Jet. The extension (retraction) of the meanflow eastward (westward) to the east (west) of the dateline is related with the effect of the westward (eastward) E-vector and the strengthening (weakening) of the negative anomalies of the barotropic growth of kinetic energy. Hence, almost opposite characteristics between the two events can explain the close relationship of tropical convection and the extratropical internal variability.展开更多
基金funded by“The Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Wind Resource Assessment and Comprehensive Post-Evaluation Techniques for Operating Wind Power Projects,”grant number YJ24.002“The Research and Application of Future Medium to Long Term Wind Resource Assessment for Wind Farms Based on Artificial Intelligence Project,”grant number 2023021。
文摘Improving the accuracy of the evaluation of the performance of wind farms in large wind power bases located in complex terrain under the actual atmosphere is crucial to the sustainable development of wind power.To this end,this study combined the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the Wind Farm Parameterization(WFP)method to investigate the wake characteristics and operational performance of large onshore wind farms in the complex terrain of Jiuquan City,Gansu Province,China.The research results showed that after verification,the systematic error of the WRF simulations was less than 3%.The WRF model and the WFP scheme simulated a significant warming phenomenon within the wind power base area,while a cooling effect was observed outside.The analysis of the wake effects indicated that the impact of PhaseⅠconstruction on PhaseⅡconstruction of the wind power base was minimal.During the operation of the entire wind power base,the wind speed within the wind farm decreased by approximately 10%,and the influence range of the predominant wind direction extended over a hundred kilometers downwind.The research conclusions provide a powerful scientific basis for optimizing design and operation,improving efficiency,minimizing the negative impacts on adjacent wind turbines,and ensuring the sustainable development of wind energy through dynamic planning and scientific assessment.
文摘Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].
基金supported by Grants in Aid from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS)KAKENHI[grant numbers JP21H01163 and JP23H00149].
文摘A double-moment cloud microphysics scheme requires an assumption for cloud droplet size distributions(DSDs).However,since observations of cloud DSDs are limited,default values for shape parameters and cloud condensation nuclei activation parameters are often used in numerical simulations.In this study,the effects of cloud DSDs on numerical simulations of warm stratiform precipitation around Tokyo are investigated using the Japan Meteorological Agency's non-hydrostatic model,which incorporates a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme.Simulations using the default cloud DSD showed higher cloud droplet number concentrations and lower radar reflectivity than observed data,suggesting that the default cloud DSD is too narrow.Simulations with a cloud DSD based on in situ cloud observations corrected these errors.In addition,observation-based cloud DSDs affected rainfall amounts through the autoconversion rate of cloud water and improved the threat scores.These results suggest that realistic cloud DSDs should be provided for double-moment cloud microphysics schemes in scientific studies.
基金This paper was translated from its Chinese version in Chinese Journal of Rice Science.
文摘The canopy temperature of rice at the flowering stage and the soil water content were investigated under different soil water treatments （the soil water contents were 24%, 55%, 90% and 175% at the flowering stage）. The canopy temperature was lower than air temperature, and the soil water content significantly influenced the canopy temperature. The lower the soil water content, the higher the canopy temperature, the less the accumulative absolute value of canopy-air temperature difference. Moreover, the maximum difference between treatments and CK in the accumulative absolute value of canopy-air temperature difference appeared at 13：00 μm. in a day, thus, it could be considered as a suitable measuring time. Under the lowest water content treatment, the peak flowering occurred in the first three days （about 70% of panicles flowered）, resulting in shortened and lightened panicle of rice. As to the CK and the high water content treatments, the peak flowering appeared in the middle of flowering duration, with longer panicle length and higher panicle weight. Results indicated the lower the soil water content, the less the filled grain number and grain yield.
文摘The surface and upper-level features associated with a sharp drop ofwintertime daily temperature over South Korea is investigated in this study. This sharp drop indaily temperature is called a cold surge and is one of the most hazardous weather phenomena in EastAsian winters. An upper-level baroclinic wave of 60° wavelength propagating eastward at a phasespeed of 12° longitude per day across the continent of northern China from the west of Lake Baikaltoward the eastern coast of China causes the outbreak of cold air over South Korea. The coolingassociated with the upper-level baroclinic jvave is found at all altitudes under the geopotentialheight-fall center near the tropopause. The development in the ridge seems to derive the earlyevolution of the eastward-propagating sinusoidal wave, whereas the trough is connected directly withthe tropospheric temperature-drop. An enhancement of the wintertime East Asian jet stream after theoutbreak of a cold surge is a response to the steep temperature gradient associated with thedeveloping baroclinic wave.
基金supported by the Natural ScienceFoundation of China (NSFC) under Grant Nos. 40523001,40625014, 40221503the National Basic Research Pro-gram of China (2005CB321703).
文摘This paper examined the decadal mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variations of mean and extreme temperatures using daily temperature and relative humidity data from 589 stations over eastern China and South Korea between 1996-2005. The results show that the decadal mean Tm （mean daily mean temperature） and the TNn （minimum daily minimum temperature） increase from north to south; the opposite spatial gradient is found in the DTR （diurnal temperature range）; the value of the DTR over South Korea is in- between that over North China and the mid-low Yangtze River valley; the TXx （maximum daily maximum temperature） has a unique spatial distribution, with the largest value over eastern China. The highest standard deviation （STD） is located over northern China and the TNn has the largest area coverage of the high STD. The peak of the seasonal cycle for the Tm, TXx and TNn over South Korea （August） occurs one month later than that over eastern China （July）. The seasonal cycle of the DTR has two peaks （April and October）; the value in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley is larger than that in South Korea during July and August owing to the seasonal northward jump of the major monsoon rain band. The interannual variations of summertime temperature indices including the Tin, TXx, and DTR over South Korea are consistent （opposite） to that over northern （southern） China. For the wintertime temperature indices however, the variation over South Korea is consistent with that over eastern China.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program(Grant.No.2012BAC22B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41475100)+1 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI(Grant.No.26282111)
文摘This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions （＂initials＂, hereafter）, which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.
基金the project"Development of Monitoring andPrediction Technology for Severe Weather(Heavy Rainfall)over the Korean Peninsula"of the Korea MeteorologicalAdministration.
文摘The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has processed the data from the advanced TOVS (ATOVS) onboard NOAA-16 satellite since May 2001. The operational production utilizes the AAPP (ATOVS and AVHRR Processing Package) of EUMETSAT and IAPP (International ATOVS Processing Package) of the University of Wisconsin. For the initial guess profiles, the predicted fields (usually 6 to 12 hour forecasted fields) from the global aviation model of NOAA/NCEP are used. The average number of profiles retrieved from the ATOVS data is about 1,300 for each morning and afternoon orbit at about 18 and 06 UTC, respectively. The retrieved temperature and dew point temperatures are provided to forecasters in real time and used for initialization of prediction models. With the advanced microwave sensor (AMSU; Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), accuracy of the ATOVS products is expected to be better than that of the TOVS products, especially in cloudy conditions. Indeed, the preliminary results from a validation study with the collocated radiosonde data during a 8-month period, from May to December 2001, for the East Asia region show an improved accuracy of the ATOVS products for cloudy skies versus the TOVS, especially for higher altitudes. The RMS (Root Mean Square) difference between the ATOVS products and radiosonde data is about 1.3°C for both clear and cloudy conditions, except for near the ground and at higher altitudes, at around 200 hPa. There is no significant temporal variation of the error statistics at all pressure levels. In case of the water vapor mixing ratio, the largest difference is shown at lower altitudes, while the accuracy is much better for the clear sky cases than the cloudy sky cases. The bias and RMSE at lower altitudes is about 0.557 g kg<SUP>−1</SUP> and 2.5 g kg<SUP>−1</SUP> and decrease significantly with increasing altitude.
基金Acknowledgments. The authors would like to thank Prof. Z. Yuan for her numerous suggestions in the writing of this paper. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40176009), the National Key Programme for Devel
文摘The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows longer. Consequently, the related 4—D variational data assimilation problems could be difficult to solve. A modified tangent linear model is built on the Mellor-Yamada turbulent closure (level 2.5) for 4-D variational data assimilation. For oceanic mixed layer model settings, the modified tangent linear model produces better finite amplitude, nonlinear perturbation than the full and simplified tangent linear models when the integration time is longer than one day. The corresponding variational data assimilation performances based on the adjoint of the modified tangent linear model are also improved compared with those adjoints of the full and simplified tangent linear models.
基金partially supported by the JPSS PGRR science program(NA15NES4320001)the NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative(NA19OAR4590240)at CIMSS/University of Wisconsin-Madison。
文摘Satellite infrared(IR)sounder and imager measurements have become one of the main sources of data used by data assimilation systems to generate initial conditions for numerical weather prediction(NWP)models and atmospheric analysis/reanalysis.This paper reviews the development of satellite IR data assimilation in NWP in recent years,especially the assimilation of all-sky satellite IR observations.The major challenges and future directions are outlined and discussed.
文摘Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.
基金supported by the CATT,Japanthe Scientific Research Foundation for the R.eturned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Ed-ucation MinistryLASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘The modulation of twin tropical cyclogenesis in the Indian-western Pacific Oceans by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the onset period of 1997/98 ENSO is explored for the period of September 1996 to June 1997 based on daily OLR, NCEP/NCAR wind vector, and JTWC best track datasets. The MJO westerly wind burst associated with its eastward propagation can result in a series of tropical cyclogeneses in a multi-day interval. Only in the transition seasons are pairs of tropical cyclones observed in both the tropical sectors of the Indian-western Pacific Oceans. Two remarkable twin tropical cyclogeneses probably modulated by the MJO westerly wind burst are found: one is observed in the Indian Ocean in the middle of October 1996, and the other is observed in the Western Pacific Ocean in late May 1997. The twin tropical cyclogenesis in mid-October 1996 is observed when the super cloud cluster separates into two isolated clusters by the enhanced westerly wind, which is accompanied by two independent vortices in the equatorial tropical sectors. The other one, in late-May 1997, however, is characterized by one cyclonic flow that later results in another cyclonic cell in its opposite equatorial sector. Thus, there are two very important conditions for twin cyclogenesis: one is the MJO westerly wind straddling the equator, and the other is the integral super cloud cluster, which later splits into two cloud convective clusters with independent vortices.
基金Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Korea Enhanced Observing Period (KEOP), a Principal Project of the Meteorological Research Institute/ KMA, and by the " National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences" G1998040900 Part 1 in China. The
文摘This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India, by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over Korea is negatively (significant at the 99% level) cor-related with the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India. In addition, coupled spatial modes be-tween the rainfall over Korea and India have been identified by the SVD analysis. The squared covariance fraction explained by the first mode is 70% and the correlation coefficient between the time coefficients of the two fields is significant at the 99% level, indicating that the coupled mode reflects a large part of the interaction between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India. The first mode clearly demon-strates the existence of a significant negative correlation between the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India and the rainfall over Korea.Possible mechanisms of this correlation are investigated by analyzing the variation of upper-level at-mospheric circulation associated with the Tibetan high using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.
基金Scientific Research project of Fujian Meteorological Bureau for 1998
文摘The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to have large probability of heavy precipitation with the decrease of brightness temperature and the gradual increase of rainfall intensity; for areas of low temperature, the brightness temperature is better determined for atmosphere above rain gauge stations with multiple points sampling than with single point one; for the yearly first raining season, the threshold brightness temperature is set at 4.6℃ for indication of heavy precipitation in the Fujian area.
文摘In this paper,a preliminary study is given on the drag (i.e.bulk transfer for momentum) coefficient,on the basis of data from four sets of AWS in Tibet during the first observational year from July 1993 to July 1994 according to China Japan Asian Monsoon Cooperative Research Program.The results show that the drag coefficient over the Tibetan Plateau is 3.3 to 4.4×103.In addition,monthly and diurnal variations of drag coefficient and the relationship among the drag coefficients and the bulk Richardson number,surface roughness length and wind speed at 10 m height are discussed in detail.
基金Supported by Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)Science Research Special Item(GYHY201106027)National Science and Technology Support Plan(2011BAD16B06).
文摘[Objective]The research aimed to study the distribution characteristics of high temperature damage and its influence on the rice yield in the area along Huaihe River.[Method]The meteorological data of 10 stations in the area along Huaihe River during 1965-2009 and the yield data of Anhui single-season middle rice during 1967-2006 were selected.The occurrence characteristic of summer high temperature weather and the intensity of high temperature damage in the area along Huaihe River were analyzed.Based on the previous high temperature damage index of rice,Changfeng County where was the typical rice planting zone in the area along Huaihe River was as the representation,and the yield damage loss rate risk of high temperature damage in Changfeng was analyzed by combining with the historical yield data.[Result]The high temperature weather in the area along Huaihe River frequently happened.The high temperature damage presented'N'shape trend from west to east.The occurrence frequency of high temperature weather in Huainan and Bengbu where were in the middle area along Huaihe River was more and was less in Huoqiu and Shouxian where were near the south mountain area of Anhui.The occurrence time mainly focused from the middle and last dekads of July to the first dekad of August after the plum rain.At this time,it was the booting,heading and flowering periods of single-season middle rice,and the influence on the rice yield was obvious.The damage loss rate of single-season middle rice yield in Changfeng County along Huaihe River continued to increase as the increasing of high temperature damage duration.But the occurrence probability decreased.The intensity grade of high temperature damage disaster loss rate which happened frequently concentrated mainly in levels I and II.The longer the high temperature damage duration in the reproductive growth stage of rice was,the bigger the damage loss rate was.But the corresponding occurrence probability was small,and vice versa.[Conclusion]The research provided the reference for assessing the high temperature disaster risk.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630754, 41671067, and 41501063)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KJZD-EW-G03-04), the State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2015)the Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS
文摘Light-absorbing impurities on glaciers are important factors that influence glacial surface albedo and accelerate glacier melt. In this study, the quantity of light-absorbing impurities on Keqikaer Glacier in western Tien Shan, Central Asia, was measured. We found that the average concentrations of black carbon was 2,180 ng/g, with a range from 250 ng/g to more than 10,000 ng/g. The average concentrations of organic carbon and mineral dust were 1,738 ng/g and 194 μg/g, respectively. Based on simulations performed with the Snow Ice Aerosol Radiative model simulations, black carbon and dust are responsible for approximately 64% and 9%, respectively, of the albedo reduction, and are associated with instantaneous radiative forcing of 323.18 W/m2(ranging from 142.16 to 619.25 W/m2) and 24.05 W/m2(ranging from 0.15 to69.77 W/m2), respectively. For different scenarios, the albedo and radiative forcing effect of black carbon is considerably greater than that of dust. The estimated radiative forcing at Keqikaer Glacier is higher than most similar values estimated by previous studies on the Tibetan Plateau, perhaps as a result of black carbon enrichment by melt scavenging. Light-absorbing impurities deposited on Keqikaer Glacier appear to mainly originate from central Asia, Siberia, western China(including the Taklimakan Desert) and parts of South Asia in summer, and from the Middle East and Central Asia in winter.A footprint analysis indicates that a large fraction(>60%) of the black carbon contributions on Keqikaer Glacier comes from anthropogenic sources. These results provide a scientific basis for regional mitigation efforts to reduce black carbon.
文摘By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.
文摘Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the extratropics reveals remarkably different features as the longitudinal tropical forcing region changes. The Rossby wave source (Positive) shows the largest maximum over East Asia in both years due to the persistent heating from the western Pacific warm pool area. However, the sink term shows contrasting features over the subtropics and extratropics between the two years. In the El Niño year, enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific produces the Rossby wave sink at 10°N and shifted eastward over the North Pacific, while in the La Niña year, the sink area is shifted westward over the North Pacific. The contrasting features between the two events in mean-eddy interaction appears especially over the downstream area of the East Asian Jet. The extension (retraction) of the meanflow eastward (westward) to the east (west) of the dateline is related with the effect of the westward (eastward) E-vector and the strengthening (weakening) of the negative anomalies of the barotropic growth of kinetic energy. Hence, almost opposite characteristics between the two events can explain the close relationship of tropical convection and the extratropical internal variability.
