This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization&#...This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization's 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.A more complete understanding of tropical cyclone outer wind and precipitation is key to anticipating storm intensification and the scale and magnitude of landfalling hazards.We first discuss the relevance of tropical cyclone outer size and structure,improvements in our understanding of its life cycle and inter-basin variability,and the processes that impact outer size changes.We next focus on current forecasting practices and differences among warning centers,recent advances in operational forecasting,and new observations of the storm outer wind field.We also summarize recent research on projected tropical cyclone outer size and structure changes by the late 21st century.Finally,we discuss recommendations for the future of tropical cyclone outer size forecasting and research.展开更多
Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction systems.Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast conf...Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction systems.Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios,it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings.RSMCs,TCWCs,and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs,but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)found that the“pull-through”of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow.IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products(TC-PFP)project,which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project.The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts.TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases:Phase 1(TC formation and position);Phase 2(TC intensity and structure);and Phase 3(TC related rainfall and storm surge).This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position.There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information,making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers.Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices.Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts.Finally,forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent,user-friendly ensemble information.Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility,probabilistic forecast products,and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes.展开更多
基金supported by funding from NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAAUniversity of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement#NA21OAR4320204U.S.Department of Commerce,and NSF AGS#2028151+5 种基金Daniel Chavas is supported by NSF AGS#1945113.Kelvin T.F.Chan was jointly supported by the National Science Foundation,United States,National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFC1510400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975052)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010741)the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai311021001)the Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025).
文摘This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization's 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.A more complete understanding of tropical cyclone outer wind and precipitation is key to anticipating storm intensification and the scale and magnitude of landfalling hazards.We first discuss the relevance of tropical cyclone outer size and structure,improvements in our understanding of its life cycle and inter-basin variability,and the processes that impact outer size changes.We next focus on current forecasting practices and differences among warning centers,recent advances in operational forecasting,and new observations of the storm outer wind field.We also summarize recent research on projected tropical cyclone outer size and structure changes by the late 21st century.Finally,we discuss recommendations for the future of tropical cyclone outer size forecasting and research.
文摘Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction systems.Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios,it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings.RSMCs,TCWCs,and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs,but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)found that the“pull-through”of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow.IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products(TC-PFP)project,which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project.The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts.TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases:Phase 1(TC formation and position);Phase 2(TC intensity and structure);and Phase 3(TC related rainfall and storm surge).This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position.There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information,making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers.Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices.Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts.Finally,forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent,user-friendly ensemble information.Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility,probabilistic forecast products,and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes.
