Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(HPAI)H5N6 in the Philippines(particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija)in August 2017,there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to con...Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(HPAI)H5N6 in the Philippines(particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija)in August 2017,there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection.However,this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry.In addition,the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more strategic control methods for the virus.In this study,we constructed a mathematical model for the bilinear and half-saturated incidence to compare their corresponding effect on transmission dynamics of H5N6.The simulations of half-saturated incidence model were similar to what occurred during the H5N6 outbreak(2017)in the Philippines.Instead of culling the birds,we implemented other control strategies such as non-medicinal(personal protection and poultry isolation)and medicinal(poultry vaccination)ways to prevent,reduce,and control the rate of the H5N6 virus transmission.Among the proposed control strategies,we have shown that the poultry isolation strategy is still the most effective in reducing the infected birds.展开更多
In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussion...In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.展开更多
文摘Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(HPAI)H5N6 in the Philippines(particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija)in August 2017,there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection.However,this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry.In addition,the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more strategic control methods for the virus.In this study,we constructed a mathematical model for the bilinear and half-saturated incidence to compare their corresponding effect on transmission dynamics of H5N6.The simulations of half-saturated incidence model were similar to what occurred during the H5N6 outbreak(2017)in the Philippines.Instead of culling the birds,we implemented other control strategies such as non-medicinal(personal protection and poultry isolation)and medicinal(poultry vaccination)ways to prevent,reduce,and control the rate of the H5N6 virus transmission.Among the proposed control strategies,we have shown that the poultry isolation strategy is still the most effective in reducing the infected birds.
文摘In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.
