This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses...This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent-based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the influence on future land use patterns of socio-economic attributes such as social relationships and farmer reliance on subsidies and biophysical constraints. The application and development of the ABM are supported empirically using three categories of input data: 1) farmer types based on a cluster analysis of socio-economic attributes;2) agricultural suitability based on regression analysis of historical land use maps and biophysical attributes;and 3) future trends in the economic and climatic environments based on the A1fi scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out prior to the scenario analysis in order to verify the absence of systematic errors in the model structure. The results of the scenario analysis show that the area of Montado declines significantly by 2050, but it remains the dominant land use in the case study area, indicating some resilience to change. An important policy challenge arising from this assessment is how to encourage next generation of innovative farmers to conserve this traditional landscape for social and ecological values.展开更多
Coastal zones are key interconnectors of terrestrial and marine ecosystems.Due to the degradation and fragmentation of coastal wetlands,there is an urgent need to develop assessment methodology to compare the health o...Coastal zones are key interconnectors of terrestrial and marine ecosystems.Due to the degradation and fragmentation of coastal wetlands,there is an urgent need to develop assessment methodology to compare the health of wetland ecosystems at different spatial scales.This will help efficiently develop and implement protections using easy-to-access ecosystem health data.This study aims to understand the spatial distribution of coastal and inland wetland health for China’s coastal regions.A Wetland Health Index(WHI)was developed to provide a basis for policy and decision making.Four utilization models—Long Term Model,Open Model,Nature Reserve Model,and Protected and Economic Model—were defined in the context of China’s coastal regions to specifically examine wetland health.Results show that the average WHI score was 63.6 with the range of 44.8–84.3 for 35 National Nature Reserves(NNRs),and the southern NNRs generally performed better than the northern NNRs.The wetlands in the southern provinces/municipalities are relatively healthier than their northern counterparts.The competent authority has slight influence on WHI scores but duration of conservation establishment does not show a clear correlation.With increasing economic activity,the differences in health conditions(WHI scores)of China’s coastal regions also increase.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)or economic intensification does not relate to WHI scores.Appropriate trade-offs between wetland management and economic development could contribute to improve health conditions,conservation and utilization of coastal and inland wetlands.展开更多
基金funded through the VISTA Project that was carried out by the authors at the Département de Géologie et de Géographie,Universite catholique de Louvain,BelgiumVISTA was funded within the 5th Framework Programme of the European Commission.
文摘This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent-based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the influence on future land use patterns of socio-economic attributes such as social relationships and farmer reliance on subsidies and biophysical constraints. The application and development of the ABM are supported empirically using three categories of input data: 1) farmer types based on a cluster analysis of socio-economic attributes;2) agricultural suitability based on regression analysis of historical land use maps and biophysical attributes;and 3) future trends in the economic and climatic environments based on the A1fi scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out prior to the scenario analysis in order to verify the absence of systematic errors in the model structure. The results of the scenario analysis show that the area of Montado declines significantly by 2050, but it remains the dominant land use in the case study area, indicating some resilience to change. An important policy challenge arising from this assessment is how to encourage next generation of innovative farmers to conserve this traditional landscape for social and ecological values.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41561105)Science and Technology Program of Jiangxi Province,China(No.20151BDH80022)SEE(Society of Entrepreneurs&Ecology)Foundation in the Project of‘Green Book:China’s Coastal Wetlands’。
文摘Coastal zones are key interconnectors of terrestrial and marine ecosystems.Due to the degradation and fragmentation of coastal wetlands,there is an urgent need to develop assessment methodology to compare the health of wetland ecosystems at different spatial scales.This will help efficiently develop and implement protections using easy-to-access ecosystem health data.This study aims to understand the spatial distribution of coastal and inland wetland health for China’s coastal regions.A Wetland Health Index(WHI)was developed to provide a basis for policy and decision making.Four utilization models—Long Term Model,Open Model,Nature Reserve Model,and Protected and Economic Model—were defined in the context of China’s coastal regions to specifically examine wetland health.Results show that the average WHI score was 63.6 with the range of 44.8–84.3 for 35 National Nature Reserves(NNRs),and the southern NNRs generally performed better than the northern NNRs.The wetlands in the southern provinces/municipalities are relatively healthier than their northern counterparts.The competent authority has slight influence on WHI scores but duration of conservation establishment does not show a clear correlation.With increasing economic activity,the differences in health conditions(WHI scores)of China’s coastal regions also increase.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)or economic intensification does not relate to WHI scores.Appropriate trade-offs between wetland management and economic development could contribute to improve health conditions,conservation and utilization of coastal and inland wetlands.
