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基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式的气候系统模式 被引量:66
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作者 周天军 王在志 +8 位作者 宇如聪 俞永强 刘屹岷 刘海龙 包庆 王鹏飞 李薇 吴国雄 吴统文 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第5期702-715,共14页
文章扼要介绍了基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式(SAMIL)的气候系统模式的新版本FGOALS-s的发展和结构。出于发展一个在东亚季风模拟方面有一定优势的气候系统模式之目的,FGOALS-s的大气模式分量SAMIL采用了较高的水平分辨率R42,这相当于2.81... 文章扼要介绍了基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式(SAMIL)的气候系统模式的新版本FGOALS-s的发展和结构。出于发展一个在东亚季风模拟方面有一定优势的气候系统模式之目的,FGOALS-s的大气模式分量SAMIL采用了较高的水平分辨率R42,这相当于2.8125°(经度)×1.66°(纬度),高于三角截断T42的分辨率。对FGOALS-s在模拟大气、陆面、海洋和海冰的气候平均态,以及主要的年际变率信号方面的能力进行了检验。分析表明,FGOALS-s成功地控制了气候漂移趋势,能够较为真实地模拟大气、海洋和陆面的气候平均态,特别是受益于大气模式的较高分辨率,由中国西南向东北延伸的夏季风雨带的分布,在模式中得到较为真实的再现,表明该模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上具有较强能力。耦合模式能够成功再现El Ni^no事件的非规则周期变化,但是其年际变化的振幅较之观测要弱。赤道中西太平洋年际变率的强度较之赤道中东太平洋要强。在中高纬度,模式模拟的北大西洋涛动模态,在空间分布上与观测接近。FGOALS-s模式存在的主要问题,是模拟的热带海温偏冷、而中纬度海温则偏暖,原因是模式模拟的云量分布存在偏差,它直接影响到海表的净热通量收支。模式模拟的北大西洋高纬度地区的海温明显偏冷,令该地区的年平均海冰分布的范围明显偏大;然而受南极周边海温偏高影响,南极洲周围的海冰范围则偏少。FGOALS-s的未来工作重点,宜放在大气模式的云过程、海洋模式的经向能量输送过程、以及海洋与大气的淡水通量耦合方案的改进方面。 展开更多
关键词 气候系统模式 大气环流谱模式 耦合模式 LASG IAP 海陆气相互作用 气候变化
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LASG耦合气候系统模式FGCM-1.0 被引量:12
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作者 俞永强 郑伟鹏 +1 位作者 张学洪 刘海龙 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2007年第6期1677-1687,共11页
本文描述了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)最新发展的一个耦合气候系统模式的基本性能.该模式是在LASG灵活的全球耦合气候系统模式(英文缩写为FGCM)的初始版本FGCM-0的基础上发展而来的,... 本文描述了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)最新发展的一个耦合气候系统模式的基本性能.该模式是在LASG灵活的全球耦合气候系统模式(英文缩写为FGCM)的初始版本FGCM-0的基础上发展而来的,是该系列耦合模式的第二个版本,即FGCM-1.0.FGCM-1.0通过一个通量耦合器将大气、海洋和海冰三个分量模式耦合在一起,其中海洋分量模式是LASG发展的一个涡相容分辨率(eddy-permitting)全球海洋环流模式,大气和海冰分量模式则为美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的大气环流模式CAM2和海冰模式CSIM4.耦合模式完整地考虑了海气界面上的动量、热量和淡水通量交换,尽管在模式中没有使用任何形式的人为的通量调整或者通量距平方案,模式还是比较合理地模拟出基本的气候形态.通过对该耦合模式长期积分结果的进一步分析发现,模式能够比较好地模拟出厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)以及印度洋偶极子事件的基本特征;与FGCM系列耦合模式的最初版本FGCM-0相比,FGCM-1.0模拟的北赤道逆流(NECC)和ENSO循环更加真实. 展开更多
关键词 气候系统模式 海洋模式 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)
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陆面过程对气候影响的数值模拟:SSiB与IAP/LASG L9R15 AGCM耦合及其模式性能 被引量:28
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作者 孙岚 吴国雄 孙菽芬 《气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2000年第2期179-193,共15页
利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好... 利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好地定量描述土壤 -植被 -大气连续体系 ( SPAC)中能量和水分的传输过程。因此 ,将其引入气候模式中能够模拟出比 CTL- AGCM更合理的气候平均状态、水汽分布以及水汽输送的气候特征 ,特别是亚洲夏季风水汽输送独特的地域性 ,再现了大气环流 ,尤其是陆面气候的基本特征。并指出 ,陆面过程参数化的引进及其陆面状况的变化显著地改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。利用改进的再循环降水模式 ,进一步研究了陆面过程参数化明显改进降水模拟的物理机制。指出全球陆地 ,特别是盛夏北半球干旱、半干旱地区的再循环降水率明显减小 ,与陆面上表面潜热通量的显著减小区一致 ,从而克服了许多未耦合陆面过程的 AGCMs因对地表水过程非常简单地参数化导致的普遍存在着整个陆地降水偏高 ,改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。因此 ,在充分耦合的陆气环流模式中模拟的降水分布与实况接近。 展开更多
关键词 陆面过程 气候影响 数值模拟 模式性能
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LASG—REM对1994年中国汛期降水的实时预报试验 被引量:28
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作者 宇如聪 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1994年第S1期801-809,共9页
LASG-REM对1994年我国汛期降水连续实时的预报试验结果再次表明了该模式对24小时短期降水有很强的预报能力。本文给出了该模式从6月上旬到7月下旬连续50天的降水实时数值预报试验的TS(ThreatScore)技... LASG-REM对1994年我国汛期降水连续实时的预报试验结果再次表明了该模式对24小时短期降水有很强的预报能力。本文给出了该模式从6月上旬到7月下旬连续50天的降水实时数值预报试验的TS(ThreatScore)技术评分以及发生在6、7、8月份主要降水过程的预报和根据大部分气象站观测降水量分析的24小时降水量等值线的比较。从6月上旬到7月下旬,LASG-REM连续50天的实时降水数值预报试验的TS技术评分(模式范围)平均为:雨区范围(24小时降水大于1mm)预报的TS值为56%;24小时降水大于10mm、25mm和50mm的TS值分别为36%、23%和15%,较1993年的TS评分有明显的提高。模式对1994年造成华南、华北严重洪涝灾害的暴雨都有很好的预报。由于模式中采用了保形水汽平流方案,在整个试验期间的水汽平流计算都未出现负水汽现象。初步的比较试验结果表明,模式中对地形的有效处理和给出较合适的水汽凝结参数对模式成功预报是重要的。 展开更多
关键词 暴雨数值预报 保形水汽平流方案 Η坐标 水汽凝结参数
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LASG第四届气候系统模式研讨会
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《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第1期48-48,共1页
关键词 气候系统模式 LASG 研讨会
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The Performance of Atmospheric Component Model R42L9 of GOALS/LASG 被引量:31
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作者 吴统文 刘平 +3 位作者 王在志 刘屹岷 宇如聪 吴国雄 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第5期726-742,共17页
This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of ... This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). It is a spectral model truncated at R42(2.8125°long×1.66°lat) resolution and with nine vertical levels, and referred to as R42L9/LASG hereafter. It is also the new version of atmospheric component model R15L9 of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS/LASG). A 40-year simulation in which the model is forced with the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature is compared with the 40-year (1958-97) U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NGEP) global reanalysis and the 22-year (1979-2000) Xie-Arkin monthly precipitation climatology. The mean DJF and JJA geographical distributions of precipitation, sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa and 200-hPa zonal wind, and other fields averaged for the last 30-year integration of the R42L9 model are analyzed. Results show that the model reproduces well the observed basic patterns, particularly precipitation over the East Asian region. Comparing the new model with R15L9/LASG, the old version with coarse resolution (nearly 7.5°long×4.5°lat), shows an obvious improvement in the simulation of regional climate, especially precipitation. The weaknesses in simulation and future improvements of the model are also discussed. 展开更多
关键词 Global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS) model development general atmospheric model (R42L9) model performance
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Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL) 被引量:10
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作者 吴志伟 李建平 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第3期387-394,共8页
Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of ... Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill. 展开更多
关键词 Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variation ENSO atmospheric general circulation model GAMIL
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A Fast Version of LASG/IAP Climate System Model and Its 1000-year Control Integration 被引量:39
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作者 周天军 吴波 +2 位作者 闻新宇 李立娟 王斌 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第4期655-672,共18页
A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) climate system model is briefly documented. Th... A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (GAMIL), with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic component LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model (LICOM), land component Common Land Model (CLM), and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR CCSM2), as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model (FGOALS_g). The parameterizations of physical and dynamical processes of the atmospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for longterm and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and variability are evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a "double ITCZ" (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) associated with a westward extension of the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue. The sea ice extent is acceptable but has a higher concentration. The strength of Atlantic meridional overturning is 27.5 Sv. Evidence from the 600-year simulation suggests a modulation of internal variability on ENSO frequency, since both regular and irregular oscillations of ENSO are found during the different time periods of the long-term simulation. 展开更多
关键词 fast ocean-atmosphere coupled model low resolution model evaluation
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Evaluation of the computational performance of the finite-volume atmospheric model of the IAP/LASG(FAMIL) on a high-performance computer 被引量:9
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作者 LI Jin-Xiao BAO Qing +1 位作者 LIU Yi-Min WU Guo-Xiong 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2017年第4期329-336,共8页
High computational performance is extremely important for climate system models, especially in ultra-high-resolution model development. In this study, the computational performance of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Mod... High computational performance is extremely important for climate system models, especially in ultra-high-resolution model development. In this study, the computational performance of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL) was comprehensively evaluated on Tianhe-2, which was the world's top-ranked supercomputer from June 2013 to May 2016. The standardized Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) type of experiment was carried out that focused on the computational performance of each node as well as the simulation year per day (SYPD), the running cost speedup, and the scalability of the FAMIL. The results indicated that (1) based on five indexes (CPU usage, percentage of CPU kernel mode that occupies CPU time and of message passing waiting time (CPU SW), code vectorization (VEC), average of Gflops (Gflops_ AVE), and peak of Gflops (Gflops_PK)), FAMIL shows excellent computational performance on every Tianhe-2 computing node; (2) considering SYPD and the cost speedup of FAMIL systematically, the optimal Message Passing Interface (MPI) numbers of processors (MNPs) choice appears when FAMIL use 384 and 1536 MNPs for C96 (100 km) and C384 (25 km), respectively; and (3) FAMIL shows positive scalability with increased threads to drive the model. Considering the fast network speed and acceleration card in the MIC architecture on Tianhe-2, there is still significant room to improve the computational performance of FAMIL. 展开更多
关键词 FAMIL scalability computational performance Tianhe-2
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The Extreme Summer Precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 Simulated by the LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model 被引量:6
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作者 LIU Jing-Wei LI Bo +2 位作者 ZHOU Tian-Jun ZENG Xian-Feng FENG Lei 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第1期62-67,共6页
The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM(the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model).The results show that the probabil... The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM(the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model).The results show that the probability density functions(PDFs) of precipitation intensities are reasonably simulated,except that the PDFs of light and moderate rain are underestimated and that the PDFs of heavy rain are overestimated.The extreme precipitation amount(R95p) and the percent contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation(R95pt) are also reasonably reproduced by the CREM.However,the R95p and R95pt over most of East China are generally overestimated,while the R95p along the coastal area of South China(SC) is underestimated.The bias of R95pt is consistent with the bias of precipitation intensity on wet days(SDII).The interannual variation for R95p anomalies(PC1) is well simulated,but that of R95pt anomalies(PC2) is poorly simulated.The skill of the model in simulating PC1(PC2) increases(decreases) from north to south.The bias of water vapor transport associated with the 95th percentile of summer daily precipitation(WVTr95) explains well the bias of the simulated extreme precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate simulation extreme precipi- tation East China CREM
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Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP 被引量:40
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作者 俞永强 张学洪 郭裕福 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第3期444-455,共12页
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelin... Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted. 展开更多
关键词 coupled GCM climate change OGCM
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The Impact of Low-Level Cloud over the Eastern Subtropical Pacific on the "Double ITCZ" in LASG FGCM-0 被引量:1
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作者 戴福山 宇如聪 +2 位作者 张学洪 俞永强 李江龙 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第3期461-474,共14页
Like many other coupled models, the Flexible coupled General Circulation Model (FGCM-0) suffers from the spurious “Double ITCZ”. In order to understand the “Double ITCZ” in FGCM-0, this study first examines the lo... Like many other coupled models, the Flexible coupled General Circulation Model (FGCM-0) suffers from the spurious “Double ITCZ”. In order to understand the “Double ITCZ” in FGCM-0, this study first examines the low-level cloud cover and the bulk stability of the low troposphere over the eastern subtropical Pacific simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3), which is the atmosphere component model of FGCM-0. It is found that the bulk stability of the low troposphere simulated by CCM3 is very consistent with the one derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, but the simulated low-level cloud cover is much less than that derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 data. Based on the regression equations between the low-level cloud cover from the ISCCP data and the bulk stability of the low troposphere derived from the NCEP reanalysis, the parameterization scheme of low-level cloud in CCM3 is modified and used in sensitivity experiments to examine the impact of low-level cloud over the eastern subtropical Pacific on the spurious “Double ITCZ” in FGCM-0. Results show that the modified scheme causes the simulated low-level cloud cover to be improved locally over the cold oceans. Increasing the low-level cloud cover off Peru not only significantly alleviates the SST warm biases in the southeastern tropical Pacific, but also causes the equatorial cold tongue to be strengthened and to extend further west. Increasing the low-level cloud fraction off California effectively reduces the SST warm biases in ITCZ north of the equator. In order to examine the feedback between the SST and low-level cloud cover off Peru, one additional sensitivity experiment is performed in which the SST over the cold ocean off Peru is restored. It shows that decreasing the SST results in similar impacts over the wide regions from the southeastern tropical Pacific northwestwards to the western/central equatorial Pacific as increasing the low-level cloud cover does. 展开更多
关键词 coupled model double ITCZ low-level cloud
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EXPERIMENTS OF A REDUCED GRID IN LASG/IAP WORLD OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (OGCMs) 被引量:1
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作者 刘喜迎 刘海龙 +1 位作者 张学洪 宇如聪 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2006年第1期9-15,共7页
Due to the decrease in grid size associated with the convergence of meridians toward the poles inspherical coordinates, the time steps in many global climate models with finite-difference method are restrictedto be un... Due to the decrease in grid size associated with the convergence of meridians toward the poles inspherical coordinates, the time steps in many global climate models with finite-difference method are restrictedto be unpleasantly small. To overcome the problem, a reduced grid is introduced to LASG/IAP world oceangeneral circulation models. The reduced grid is implemented successfully in the coarser resolutions versionmodel L30T63 at first. Then, it is carried out in the improved version model LICOM with finer resolutions. Inthe experiment with model L30T63, under time step unchanged though, execution time per single model run isshortened significantly owing to the decrease of grid number and filtering execution in high latitudes. Resultsfrom additional experiments with L30T63 show that the time step of integration can be quadrupled at most inreduced grid with refinement ratio 3. In the experiment with model LICOM and with the model’s original timestep unchanged, the model covered area is extended to the whole globe from its original case with the grid pointof North Pole considered as an isolated island and the results of experiment are shown to be acceptable. 展开更多
关键词 spherical coordinates reduced grid ocean general circulation model
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Summer Extreme Temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 Simulated by LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model CREM
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作者 ZENG Xian-Feng LIU Jing-Wei +3 位作者 LI Bo GUO Zhun ZHOU Tian-Jun FENG Lei 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第1期68-73,共6页
The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 19844004 using a regional climate model named CREM (the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model), which was developed by LASG/IAP. The ... The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 19844004 using a regional climate model named CREM (the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model), which was developed by LASG/IAP. The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM, and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum tem- perature, especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHV). The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation, especially for the maximum temperature. The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature. The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south. The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature. The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature. Furthermore, the model underestimates the light and moderate rain, while overestimates heavy rain. It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature. 展开更多
关键词 summer extreme temperatures East China CREM
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基于位涡理论的青藏高原热力强迫数值模拟研究进展
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作者 何编 冯适健 +3 位作者 吴国雄 刘屹岷 生宸 何欣雨 《地球科学进展》 北大核心 2025年第5期441-455,共15页
青藏高原热动力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和变化具有重要影响。然而,由于观测和数值模式本身的局限性,关于青藏高原动力和热力作用影响季风形成的相对重要性仍存在争议。针对相关理论和数值模拟问题,提出了基于位涡理论的青藏高原地... 青藏高原热动力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和变化具有重要影响。然而,由于观测和数值模式本身的局限性,关于青藏高原动力和热力作用影响季风形成的相对重要性仍存在争议。针对相关理论和数值模拟问题,提出了基于位涡理论的青藏高原地表位涡强迫概念,并揭示了其与亚洲夏季风的关系。针对上述研究开展了回顾和总结,发现青藏高原动力、热力强迫影响的相对重要性与试验设计和模式模拟性能本身具有密切联系;青藏高原地表位涡指数可以作为衡量其相对重要性的一个指标;相比于感热通量,表面位涡能够更好地表征夏季高原表面的强迫作用,并可以作为量化指标评估不同数值模拟方案中高原表面强迫的强度和对季风降水的影响;从气候尺度而言,高原表面加热是导致夏季风在陆地上形成的主要因素;而从延伸期预测的角度,高原上空的热力和动力扰动时空尺度如何调控天气尺度波是影响下游降水预测的关键因子。相关理论和数值模拟研究可为进一步深化青藏高原气候动力学的认识提供参考。未来需要加强高原观测,并推动模式物理过程的发展,以进一步提高青藏高原气候数值模拟和预测水平。 展开更多
关键词 青藏高原 亚洲季风 数值模拟 热力强迫 位涡
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中尺度对流系统:从年际年代际变率到气候响应
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作者 聂绩 林中曦 +7 位作者 李普曦 杨邱 丁天 宋丰飞 孟智勇 孙建华 李建 赵传峰 《气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期770-785,共16页
中尺度对流系统(MCS)是由多个对流系统组成的云系,其降水水平空间尺度介于雷暴单体与温带气旋之间,时间尺度通常为数小时或更久,频繁引发高影响、致灾性强的天气事件。受到青藏高原、东亚季风等地理和气候系统影响,中国的MCS展现出独特... 中尺度对流系统(MCS)是由多个对流系统组成的云系,其降水水平空间尺度介于雷暴单体与温带气旋之间,时间尺度通常为数小时或更久,频繁引发高影响、致灾性强的天气事件。受到青藏高原、东亚季风等地理和气候系统影响,中国的MCS展现出独特的时、空分布特征,对中国水资源、暴雨及洪涝灾害产生重大影响。MCS的研究对于提升天气预报精确度等气象防灾、减灾和应对极端天气等适应气候变化具有重要的科学意义和实际价值。系统回顾了中国学者在MCS的变率和气候响应领域的重要成果和进展。自20世纪60年代中国开始对MCS进行观测试验以来,随着观测技术的进步,对MCS的统计分析和发生、发展机制的研究已从单一案例和短期统计分析,发展到对多区域、长时间尺度的精细特征和机理的深入探讨。在此基础上,中国的气象工作者对MCS的时、空变率进行了大量分析,并将MCS的发生、发展与背景条件相结合,取得了一系列关于MCS长期变异性统计分析和机理研究的重要成果。从中国不同区域MCS的年际和年代际时、空分布特征及其对降水变率的贡献,以及气候长期变率对MCS的调控机制两方面回顾了MCS的年际和年代际变率的相关研究。对于全球变暖背景下MCS的响应这一热点和前沿问题,回顾了气候变化对MCS频率和强度的影响的观测和机理研究,并探讨了气溶胶排放和城市化等人类活动对MCS的影响。最后,对MCS未来可能的研究方向进行了探讨和展望。 展开更多
关键词 中尺度对流系统 年际变率 年代际变率 气候响应
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陆面过程的可预报性研究进展与展望
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作者 孙国栋 彭飞 +2 位作者 任秋杰 张琦渝 岳丹丹 《地球科学进展》 北大核心 2025年第7期661-671,共11页
陆面是地球系统的重要组成部分。陆面通过能量、水分和碳氮循环等过程,与大气相互耦合和相互作用,对天气和气候系统产生重要影响。陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究是当前国际学术界的热点之一。然而,目前陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究仍... 陆面是地球系统的重要组成部分。陆面通过能量、水分和碳氮循环等过程,与大气相互耦合和相互作用,对天气和气候系统产生重要影响。陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究是当前国际学术界的热点之一。然而,目前陆面过程的数值模拟和预报研究仍存在较大的不确定性。评估目前陆面过程的数值模拟和预报的不确定性程度,探寻其不确定性来源,并研究减少这种不确定性的方法和途径,均属于陆面过程可预报性的研究范畴。从气候变化和模式物理过程角度,回顾了目前陆面过程可预报性研究的3个问题:一是气候变化和模式物理过程不确定性,对陆面过程数值模拟和预测不确定性的影响程度;二是导致上述不确定性的关键物理过程;三是如何利用目标观测和集合预报提高陆面过程的数值模拟能力和预测技巧。最后,针对如何提高陆面过程的数值模拟能力和预测技巧进行了展望,包括如何对敏感的物理参数进行加强观测,以及集合预报技术的进一步拓展。 展开更多
关键词 可预报性 陆面过程 陆气相互作用 目标观测 集合预报
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CLM4.5模式模拟安徽省淮南山地森林陆气交换过程 被引量:2
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作者 戴秋丹 郭振海 +4 位作者 王龙欢 孙向明 谢正辉 孙菽芬 肖霞 《大气科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期23-37,共15页
基于2010~2019年ERA5单层再分析资料,结合安徽省淮南森林观测站2016年5月1日至2017年4月30日的大气边界层塔(PBL塔)观测资料,驱动陆面模式CLM4.5(Community Land Model Version 4.5),模拟了淮南山地森林下垫面上的陆面过程,并比较分析... 基于2010~2019年ERA5单层再分析资料,结合安徽省淮南森林观测站2016年5月1日至2017年4月30日的大气边界层塔(PBL塔)观测资料,驱动陆面模式CLM4.5(Community Land Model Version 4.5),模拟了淮南山地森林下垫面上的陆面过程,并比较分析了不同驱动场对其影响,同时设计了土壤质地对土壤湿度影响的三个模拟试验。结果表明,CLM4.5对淮南森林陆气交换过程表现了较好的模拟性能,PBL塔观测资料驱动的总体模拟效果优于ERA5再分析资料的。在辐射模拟方面,CLM4.5利用ERA5资料和PBL塔观测资料,都很好地模拟了辐射分量,特别是PBL塔观测资料驱动的全年模拟结果与观测相关系数达0.97以上,均方根误差在25.056 W m^(-2)以下。ERA5再分析资料强迫模拟的相关系数略低,但也达到了0.92,均方根误差在29.939 W m^(-2)以下。在土壤温度模拟方面,相关系数都达到0.98以上;土壤湿度模拟的相关系数都在0.86以上,但系统性偏高;对感热通量的模拟全年平均的相关系数分别为0.72和0.78。实测的三层土壤质地加上深层给定的土壤质地的数据对土壤湿度的模拟结果与观测最为接近,土壤质地的准确描述可以大幅提高土壤湿度的模拟。本研究发现ERA5单层再分析资料在淮南森林站精度较好,可以应用于该山地森林区域陆—气交换过程的模拟研究。 展开更多
关键词 CLM4.5陆面模式 南北气候过渡带 山地森林 土壤质地
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用于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的海气耦合模式:以对我国三个环流型模式(CGCMs)的评估为例 被引量:1
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作者 张荣华 尹露莹 +9 位作者 高川 王宏娜 刘思颖 智海 陈林 康贤彪 俞永强 宋振亚 吴统文 吴方华 《海洋与湖沼》 北大核心 2025年第3期475-501,共27页
基于数理方程的海气耦合模式是研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)的有效工具。由于ENSO模拟性能强烈地依赖于模式的构建及海气过程的表征,目前已发展了各类复杂程度不同的海气耦合模式,包括中间型耦合模式... 基于数理方程的海气耦合模式是研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)的有效工具。由于ENSO模拟性能强烈地依赖于模式的构建及海气过程的表征,目前已发展了各类复杂程度不同的海气耦合模式,包括中间型耦合模式(Intermediate coupled models,ICMs)、混合型耦合模式(Hybrid coupled models,HCMs)和完整的环流型耦合模式等。其中最为复杂的是基于原始方程组的海气耦合环流模式(Coupled general circulation models,CGCMs),它们均由描述大气和海水运动的大气环流模式(Atmospheric general circulation models,AGCMs)和海洋环流模式(Oceanic general circulation models,OGCMs)所组成,包含了广泛而尽可能详尽的物理过程及参数化方案;采用全变量(一个状态变量可分为气候态部分和年际异常部分)和海气间的完全耦合。早期发展的CGCM常常会出现气候漂移现象,对气候平均态和ENSO模拟等会出现较大的模式误差,为此需要采用通量修正(flux corrections)等方法,以减小平均态模拟的系统性误差;这类模式不仅对计算资源有更高的要求,其调试与优化也面临巨大技术挑战。经过几十年的发展和改进,当前使用的CGCMs已经能够真实地再现与ENSO相关的海气变量年际异常的时空结构及演变,这些在耦合模式国际比较计划第6阶段(Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6,CMIP6)模拟中已得到清晰体现上。目前我国不同科研机构和业务单位已发展了CGCMs,其中较为成熟和广泛应用并有大量成果公开发表的CGCMs包括中国科学院大气物理研究所、自然资源部第一海洋研究所和中国气象局等所研发的CGCM系统。经过长期不懈的努力,目前这些CGCMs无须进行偏差或通量校正已能成功地应用于气候模拟、预测和预估等,展现了其对气候平均态和多尺度气候变率等方面数值模拟的良好性能。例如,这些CGCMs对ENSO现象的表征能力已有极大的改进和提高,已广泛应用于ENSO模拟和预测应用之中。然而,目前基于CGCMs对ENSO的数值模拟和预测仍存在着较大的不确定性和模式间差异性。本文将评估这些CGCMs对ENSO模拟的现状和未来发展方向,指出CGCMs所存在的问题和需要改进之处。这些分析和评估为未来ENSO数值模拟和预测的改进和发展提供了有价值的科学指导。 展开更多
关键词 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO) 海气相互作用 耦合环流模式(CGCMs) ENSO模拟性能 模拟偏差和不确定性
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Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric car-bon dioxide in IAP/LASG Climate System Model 被引量:12
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作者 ZHOUTianjun YURucong LIUXiying GUOYufu YUYongqiang ZHANGXuehong 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2005年第6期592-598,共7页
Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circula- tion (THC) to global warming is examined by using the cli- mate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated w... Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circula- tion (THC) to global warming is examined by using the cli- mate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-to- equator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmos- pheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associ- ated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic “conveyor belt” decelerating. 展开更多
关键词 大西洋 热盐 大气 二氧化碳 IAP/LASG 气候
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