The optimal allocation model of regional water resources is built with the purpose of maximizing the comprehensive economic,social and environmental benefits of regional water consumption.In order to solve the problem...The optimal allocation model of regional water resources is built with the purpose of maximizing the comprehensive economic,social and environmental benefits of regional water consumption.In order to solve the problems that easily appear during the model solution of regional water resource optimal allocation with multiple water sources,multiple users and multiple objectives like"curse of dimensionality"or sinking into local optimum,this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm based on immune evolutionary algorithm(IEA).This algorithm introduces immunology principle into particle swarm algorithm.Its immune memorizing and self-adjusting mechanism is utilized to keep the particles in the fitness level at a certain concentration and guarantee the diversity of population.Also,the global search characteristics of IEA and the local search capacity of particle swarm algorithm have been fully utilized to overcome the dependence of PSO on initial swarm and the deficiency of vulnerability to local optimum.After applying this model to the allocation of water resources in Zhoukou,we obtain the scheme for optimization allocation of water resources in the planning level years,i.e.2015and 2025 under the guarantee rate of 50%.The calculation results indicate that the application of this algorithm to solve the issue of optimal allocation of regional water resources is reliable and reasonable.Thus it ofers a new idea for solving the issue of optimal allocation of water resources.展开更多
Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') pr...Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.展开更多
Potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) is vital for hydrologic cycle and water resource assessments as well as crop water requirement and irrigation demand assessments. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(Jing-Jin-Ji)–an im...Potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) is vital for hydrologic cycle and water resource assessments as well as crop water requirement and irrigation demand assessments. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(Jing-Jin-Ji)–an important, large, regional, economic community in China has experienced tremendous land use and land cover changes because of urbanisation and ecological restoration, affecting the hydrologic cycle and water resources of this region. Therefore, we analysed ET_0 in this region using climate data from 22 meteorological stations for the period 1991–2015 to understand this effect. Our findings show that ET_0 increased significantly at a rate of 7.40 mm per decade for the region. Based on the major land use type surrounding them, the meteorological stations were classified as urban, farmland, and natural stations using the 2015 land use dataset. The natural stations in the northern mountainous area showed a significant increase in ET_0, whereas most urban and farmland stations in the plain area showed a decrease in ET_0, with only a few of the stations showing an increase. Based on the different ET_0 trends for different land use types, these stations can be ranked as follows: urban stations(trend value:-4.663 to-1.439) > natural stations(trend value: 2.58 to 3.373) > farmland stations(trend value:-2.927 to-0.248). Our results indicate that land use changes affect meteorological parameters, such as wind speed and sunshine duration, which then lead to changes in ET_0. We noted that wind speed was the dominant parameter affecting ET_0 at all the natural stations, and wind speed and sunshine duration were the dominant parameters affecting ET_0 at most of the urban stations. However, the main controlling parameters affecting ET_0 at the farmland stations varied. These results present a scope for understanding land use impact on ET_0, which can then be applied to studies on sustainable land use planning and water resource management.展开更多
The impacts of rainfall direction on the degree of hydrological response to rainfall properties were investigated using comparative rainfall-runoff experiments on a small-scale slope(4 m×1 m),as well as canonical...The impacts of rainfall direction on the degree of hydrological response to rainfall properties were investigated using comparative rainfall-runoff experiments on a small-scale slope(4 m×1 m),as well as canonical correlation analysis(CCA).The results of the CCA,based on the observed data showed that,under conditions of both upstream and downstream rainfall movements,the hydrological process can be divided into instantaneous and cumulative responses,for which the driving forces are rainfall intensity and total rainfall,and coupling with splash erosion and wash erosion,respectively.The response of peak runoff(Pr)to intensity-dominated rainfall action appeared to be the most significant,and also runoff(R)to rainfall-dominated action,both for upstream-and downstream-moving conditions.Furthermore,the responses of sediment erosion in downstream-moving condition were more significant than those in upstream-moving condition.This study indicated that a CCA between rainfall and hydrological characteristics is effective for further exploring the rainfall-runoff-erosion mechanism under conditions of moving rainfall,especially for the downstream movement condition.展开更多
The Tahe Oilfield is a complex petroleum reservoir of Ordovician carbonate formation and made up of spatially overlapping fracture-cavity units. The oilfield is controlled by a cave system resulting from structure-kar...The Tahe Oilfield is a complex petroleum reservoir of Ordovician carbonate formation and made up of spatially overlapping fracture-cavity units. The oilfield is controlled by a cave system resulting from structure-karst cyclic sedimentation. Due to significant heterogeneity of the reservoir, the distribution of oil and water is complicated. Horizontally, a fresh water zone due to meteoric water can be found in the north part of the Akekule uplift. A marginal freshening zone caused by water released from mudstone compaction is found at the bottom of the southern slope. Located in a crossformational flow discharge zone caused by centripetal and the centrifugal flows, the main part of the Tahe Oilfield, featuring high salinity and concentrations of CI^- and K^＋＋Na^＋, is favorable for accumulation of hydrocarbon. Three types of formation water in the Tahe Ordovician reservoir are identified： （1） residual water at the bottom of the cave after oil and gas displacement, （2） residual water in fractures/pores around the cave after oil and gas displacement, and （3） interlayer water below reservoirs. The cave system is the main reservoir space, which consists of the main cave, branch caves and depressions between caves. Taking Cave System S48 in the Ordovician reservoir as an example, the paper analyzes the fluid distribution and exploitation performance in the cave system. Owing to evaporation of groundwater during cross-formational flow, the central part of the main cave, where oil layers are thick and there is a high degree of displacement, is characterized by high salinity and Br^- concentration. With high potential and a long stable production period, most wells in the central part of the main cave have a long water-free oil production period. Even after water breakthrough, the water content has a slow or stepwise increase and the hydrochemistral characteristics of the produced water in the central part of the main cave are uniform. From the center to the edge of the main cave, displacement and enrichment of oil/gas become weaker, residual water increases, and the salinity and concentration of Br^- decrease. At the edge of the main cave, although the wells have a high deliverability at the beginning with a short stable production period and water-free production period. After water breakthrough, the pressure and deliverability drop quickly, and the water content rises quickly. The hydrochemistral characteristics of the produced water are relatively uniform. Wells in the branch caves have a relatively low deliverability at the beginning, with a short stable production period. Water breakthrough appears quickly and then the pressure and deliverability drop quickly. The salinity and concentrations of CI^-and K^＋＋Na^＋ are usually fluctuant or descend slowly in the produced water. Wells in low areas of ancient karst have a low deliverability and a short stable production period. The yield drops quickly and the water content is high, while the characteristics of the produced water may vary significantly well to well. The salinity and concentrations of CI^-and K^＋＋Na^＋ in the produced water are usually fluctuant with a precipitous decline.展开更多
The low degree of development and utilization as well as the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Huangshui River basin are the main restricting factors of the local agricultural development. ...The low degree of development and utilization as well as the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Huangshui River basin are the main restricting factors of the local agricultural development. The study on the simulation of irrigation water loss based on the VSMB model has very important significance to strengthening regional water management and improving water resource utilization efficiency. Five groundwater wells were set up to carry out the farmland irrigation water infiltration and the experimental study on groundwater dynamic effect. Two soil moisture monitoring sites were set up in two typical plots of Daxia and Guanting irrigation area at the same time and TDR300 was used to monitor four kinds of deep soil moisture( 10 cm,30 cm,50 cm and 70 cm). On this basis,the VSMB model was used to study the irrigation water loss in the irrigation area of Yellow River valley of Qinghai Province,including soil moisture content,the actual evapotranspiration,infiltration,runoff,groundwater buried depth and so on. The results showed that the water consumption caused by soil evaporation and crop transpiration accounted for 46. 4% and 24. 1% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 30. 3% and 60. 6% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,from March 1,2013 to April 30,and from August 1 to September 30. The actual evaporation of the GT- TR1 and GT- TR2 sites in the whole year of 2013 was 632. 6 mm and 646. 9 mm,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 2. 6% and 1. 2% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively. RMSE of the simulation results of the groundwater depth in Daxia irrigation area during the two periods was 92. 3 mm and 27. 7 mm,respectively. And RMSE of the simulation results of the water content of soil profile in the two monitoring sites of Guanting irrigation area was 2. 04% and 5. 81%,respectively,indicating that the simulation results were reliable.展开更多
The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calcu...The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calculated by water diversion-recession method and water balance method. The average value of water diversion-recession method is 3.264 billion m3 and annual varia-tion is relatively steady. The result of water balance method is 3.937 billion m3 and annual variation is obvious. It is suggested that strengthen verification of entrances and monitoring of water diversion and recession.展开更多
Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abru...Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.展开更多
A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal ...A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.展开更多
Regional drought analysis provides useful information for sustainable water resources management.In this paper,a standardized precipitation index(SPI) at multiple time scales was used to investigate the spatial patter...Regional drought analysis provides useful information for sustainable water resources management.In this paper,a standardized precipitation index(SPI) at multiple time scales was used to investigate the spatial patterns and trends of drought in the Han River Basin,one of the largest tributaries of Yangtze River,China.It was found that,in terms of drought severity,the upper basin of the Han River is the least,while the growing trend is the most conspicuous;a less conspicuous growing trend can be observed in the middle basin;and there is an insignificant decreasing trend in the lower basin.Meanwhile,the impact of drought on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project was investigated,and it is suggested that water intake must be reduced in times of drought,particularly when successive or simultaneous droughts in the upper and middle basins of the Han River Basin occur.The results can provide substantial information for future water allocation schemes of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.展开更多
An analytical approach was presented for estimating the factor of safety(FS) for slope failure, with consideration of the impact of a confined aquifer. An upward-moving wetting front from the confined water was assume...An analytical approach was presented for estimating the factor of safety(FS) for slope failure, with consideration of the impact of a confined aquifer. An upward-moving wetting front from the confined water was assumed and the pore water pressure distribution was then estimated and used to obtain the analytical expression of FS. Then, the validation of the theoretical analysis was applied based on an actual case in Hong Kong. It is shown that the presence of a confined aquifer leads to a lower FS value, and the impact rate of hydrostatic pressure on FS increases as the confined water pressure increases, approaching to a maximum value determined by the ratio of water density to saturated soil density. It is also presented that the contribution of hydrostatic pressure and hydrodynamic pressure to the slope stability vary with the confined aquifer pressure.展开更多
Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very im- portant for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency ...Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very im- portant for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis are identified for the first time. The numeral unite spread assessment pedigree （NUSAP） method is introduced and is first employed to quantify qual- itative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. A pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional rainfall frequency analysis, by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified. Finally, the qualitative and quantitative uncertainties are com- bined in an uncertainty diagnostic diagram, which makes the uncertainty evaluation results more intuitive. From the integrated diagnostic diagram, it can be determined that the uncertainty caused by the precipitation data is the smallest, and the uncertainty from different grouping methods is the largest. For the downstream sub-region, a generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution is better than a generalized logistic （GLO） distribution; for the south sub-region, a Pearson type III （PE3） distribution is the better choice; and for the north sub-region, GEV is more appropriate.展开更多
Recent years have seen a surge in assessment of potential impacts of climate change. As one of the most important tools for generating synthetic hydrological model inputs, weather generators have played an important r...Recent years have seen a surge in assessment of potential impacts of climate change. As one of the most important tools for generating synthetic hydrological model inputs, weather generators have played an important role in climate change impact analysis of water management. However, most weather generators like statistical downscaling model （SDSM） and long Ashton research station weather generator （LARS-WG） are designed for single site data generation. Considering the significance of spatial correlations of hydro-meteorological data, multi-site weather data generation becomes a necessity. In this study we aim to evaluate the performance of a new multi-site stochastic model, geo-spatial temporal weather generator （GIST）, in simulating precipitation in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The correlation matrix, precipitation amount and occurrence of observed and GiST-generated data are first compared for the evaluation process. Then we use the GiST model combined with the change factor method （CFM） to investigate future changes of precipitation （2071 2100） in the study area using one global climate model, Hadgem2 ES, and an extreme emission scenario RCP 8.5, The final results show that the simulated precipitation amount and occurrence by GiST matched their historical counterparts reasonably. The correlation coefficients between simulated and his- torical precipitations show good consistence as well. Compared with the baseline period （1961 1990）, precipitation in the future time period （2071-2100） at high elevation stations will probably increase while at other stations decreases will occur. This study implies potential application of the GiST stochastic model in investigating the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources.展开更多
For river basin management, the reliability of the rating curves mainly depends on the accuracy and time period of the observed discharge and water level data. In the Elbe decision support system (DSS), the rating cur...For river basin management, the reliability of the rating curves mainly depends on the accuracy and time period of the observed discharge and water level data. In the Elbe decision support system (DSS), the rating curves are combined with the HEC-6 model to investigate the effects of river engineering measures on the Elbe River system. In such situations, the uncertainty originating from the HEC-6 model is of significant importance for the reliability of the rating curves and the corresponding DSS results. This paper proposes a two-step approach to analyze the uncertainty in the rating curves and propagate it into the Elbe DSS: analytic method and Latin Hypercube simulation. Via this approach the uncertainty and sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters are successfully investigated. The results show that the proposed approach is very efficient in investigating the effect of uncertainty and can play an important role in improving decision-making under uncertainty.展开更多
Based on the suspended sediment transport equation and transport capacity formula under the action of tidal currents and wind waves, a horizontal 2-D mathematical model of suspended sediment transport for estuaries an...Based on the suspended sediment transport equation and transport capacity formula under the action of tidal currents and wind waves, a horizontal 2-D mathematical model of suspended sediment transport for estuaries and coastal regions is established. The verification of calculations shows that the sediment concentration distribution and sea bed deformation in the estuaries and coastal regions can be successfully simulated. Therefore, a new method for studying and solving the sediment problems in the estuarine and coastal engineering is presented.展开更多
The impact of vegetation coverage on erosion and sediment yield in the Loess Plateau has been extensively studied,but the research has been primarily based on observations from slope runoff plots or secondary forest r...The impact of vegetation coverage on erosion and sediment yield in the Loess Plateau has been extensively studied,but the research has been primarily based on observations from slope runoff plots or secondary forest regions;the scaling method remains unresolved when it is applied at a large spatial scale,and it is difficult to apply to regions with severe soil and water loss given the predominance of herbs and shrubs.To date,there is little data on the quantitative impact of changes to vegetation on sediment concentration at a large spatial scale.This paper is based on vegetation information from remote sensing images,measured rainfall and sediment data over nearly 60 years,and results from previous runoff and sediment variation research on the Yellow River.We introduce the concepts of a sediment yield coefficient and the percentage of effective vegetation and erodible area,analyze the impact of different vegetation conditions on the flood sediment concentration and sediment yield,and evaluate the effect of rainfall intensity on sediment yield under different vegetation conditions at the watershed scale.We propose models to evaluate the impact of vegetation on sediment yield in the loess gully hilly region,which are based on remote sensing data and support an application at a large spatial scale.The models can be used to assess sediment reduction that results from the current significant improvement of vegetation in the Loess Plateau.展开更多
An one-dimensional model for contaminant advection and dispersion through a GCL/AL liner system was developed to analyze the equivalence between a GCL(geosynthetic clay liner) and a CCL(compacted clay liner).The conti...An one-dimensional model for contaminant advection and dispersion through a GCL/AL liner system was developed to analyze the equivalence between a GCL(geosynthetic clay liner) and a CCL(compacted clay liner).The continuity of contaminant concentration and flux at the interface between the GCL and the underlying attenuation liner(AL) are obeyed in the model,and background concentrations in the soil liner are also considered.Based on the assumption that contaminant transport through a GCL was a steady state process,an analytical solution was obtained.Increasing the leachate head from 0.3 m to 10 m results in a reduction of the breakthrough time of benzene by a factor of 2.7.The breakthrough time of benzene increases by a factor of 7.0 when the hydraulic conductivity of GCL decreases by one order of magnitude.The breakthrough curves are more sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of the GCL and AL(attenuation layer) than to the thickness of the AL.The standard 75 cm CCL can be replaced by a combination of a GCL and a 1.0-4.0 m thickness of AL.The proposed method can be used for preliminary design of GCL composite liners,assessing the equivalence between GCL and CCL,preliminary design of a remediation method for contaminated soils,and evaluating experimental results.展开更多
Quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs)provided by three operational global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)from the THORPEX(The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)Interactive Grand Global Ens...Quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs)provided by three operational global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)from the THORPEX(The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE)archive were evaluated over the Qu River basin,China during the plum rain and typhoon seasons of 2009–13.Two post-processing methods,the ensemble model output statistics based on censored shifted gamma distribution(CSGD-EMOS)and quantile mapping(QM),were used to reduce bias and to improve the QPFs.The results were evaluated by using three incremental precipitation thresholds and multiple verification metrics.It is demonstrated that QPFs from NCEP and ECMWF presented similarly skillful forecasts,although the ECMWF QPFs performed more satisfactorily in the typhoon season and the NCEP QPFs were better in the plum rain season.Most of the verification metrics showed evident seasonal discriminations,with more satisfactory behavior in the plum rain season.Lighter precipitation tended to be overestimated,but heavier precipitation was always underestimated.The post-processed QPFs showed a significant improvement from the raw forecasts and the effects of post-processing varied with the lead time,precipitation threshold,and EPS.Precipitation was better corrected at longer lead times and higher thresholds.CSGD-EMOS was more effective for probabilistic metrics and the root-mean-square error.QM had a greater effect on removing bias according to bias and categorical metrics,but was unable to warrant reliabilities.In general,raw forecasts can provide acceptable QPFs eight days in advance.After post-processing,the useful forecasts can be significantly extended beyond 10 days,showing promising prospects for flood forecasting.展开更多
Remote sensing technology is the important tool of digital earth,it can facilitate nutrient management in sustainable cropping systems.In the study,two types of radial basis function(RBF)neural network approaches,the ...Remote sensing technology is the important tool of digital earth,it can facilitate nutrient management in sustainable cropping systems.In the study,two types of radial basis function(RBF)neural network approaches,the standard radial basis function(SRBF)neural networks and the modified type of RBF,generalized regression neural networks(GRNN),were investigated in estimating the nitrogen concentrations of oilseed rape canopy using vegetation indices(VIs)and hyperspectral reflectance.Comparison analyses were performed to the spectral variables and the approaches.The Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and determination coefficients(R2)were used to assess their predictability of nitrogen concentrations.For all spectral variables(VIs and hyperspectral reflectance),the GRNN method produced more accurate estimates of nitrogen concentrations than did the SRBF method at all ranges of nitrogen concentrations,and the better agreements between the measured and the predicted nitrogen concentration were obtained with the GRNN method.This indicated that the GRNN method is prior to the SRBF method in estimation of nitrogen concentrations.Among the VIs,the Modified Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index(MCARI),MCARI1510,and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index are better than the others in estimating oilseed rape canopy nitrogen concentrations.Compared to the results from VIs,the hyperspectral reflectance data also gave an acceptable estimation.The study showed that nitrogen concentrations of oilseed rape canopy could be monitored using remotely sensed data and the RBF method,especially the GRNN method,is a useful explorative tool for oilseed rape nitrogen concentration monitoring when applied on hyperspectral data.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40839902)
文摘The optimal allocation model of regional water resources is built with the purpose of maximizing the comprehensive economic,social and environmental benefits of regional water consumption.In order to solve the problems that easily appear during the model solution of regional water resource optimal allocation with multiple water sources,multiple users and multiple objectives like"curse of dimensionality"or sinking into local optimum,this paper proposes a particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm based on immune evolutionary algorithm(IEA).This algorithm introduces immunology principle into particle swarm algorithm.Its immune memorizing and self-adjusting mechanism is utilized to keep the particles in the fitness level at a certain concentration and guarantee the diversity of population.Also,the global search characteristics of IEA and the local search capacity of particle swarm algorithm have been fully utilized to overcome the dependence of PSO on initial swarm and the deficiency of vulnerability to local optimum.After applying this model to the allocation of water resources in Zhoukou,we obtain the scheme for optimization allocation of water resources in the planning level years,i.e.2015and 2025 under the guarantee rate of 50%.The calculation results indicate that the application of this algorithm to solve the issue of optimal allocation of regional water resources is reliable and reasonable.Thus it ofers a new idea for solving the issue of optimal allocation of water resources.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41330854 and 41371063)the National Key Research and Development Programs of China(Grants No.2016YFA0601601 and2016YFA0601501)
文摘Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2016YFC0401407National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.51379216+1 种基金National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars,No.51625904International Science&Technology Cooperation Program of China,No.2016YFE0102400
文摘Potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) is vital for hydrologic cycle and water resource assessments as well as crop water requirement and irrigation demand assessments. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(Jing-Jin-Ji)–an important, large, regional, economic community in China has experienced tremendous land use and land cover changes because of urbanisation and ecological restoration, affecting the hydrologic cycle and water resources of this region. Therefore, we analysed ET_0 in this region using climate data from 22 meteorological stations for the period 1991–2015 to understand this effect. Our findings show that ET_0 increased significantly at a rate of 7.40 mm per decade for the region. Based on the major land use type surrounding them, the meteorological stations were classified as urban, farmland, and natural stations using the 2015 land use dataset. The natural stations in the northern mountainous area showed a significant increase in ET_0, whereas most urban and farmland stations in the plain area showed a decrease in ET_0, with only a few of the stations showing an increase. Based on the different ET_0 trends for different land use types, these stations can be ranked as follows: urban stations(trend value:-4.663 to-1.439) > natural stations(trend value: 2.58 to 3.373) > farmland stations(trend value:-2.927 to-0.248). Our results indicate that land use changes affect meteorological parameters, such as wind speed and sunshine duration, which then lead to changes in ET_0. We noted that wind speed was the dominant parameter affecting ET_0 at all the natural stations, and wind speed and sunshine duration were the dominant parameters affecting ET_0 at most of the urban stations. However, the main controlling parameters affecting ET_0 at the farmland stations varied. These results present a scope for understanding land use impact on ET_0, which can then be applied to studies on sustainable land use planning and water resource management.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program (973) of China (No. 2011CB409901-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 4081011)
文摘The impacts of rainfall direction on the degree of hydrological response to rainfall properties were investigated using comparative rainfall-runoff experiments on a small-scale slope(4 m×1 m),as well as canonical correlation analysis(CCA).The results of the CCA,based on the observed data showed that,under conditions of both upstream and downstream rainfall movements,the hydrological process can be divided into instantaneous and cumulative responses,for which the driving forces are rainfall intensity and total rainfall,and coupling with splash erosion and wash erosion,respectively.The response of peak runoff(Pr)to intensity-dominated rainfall action appeared to be the most significant,and also runoff(R)to rainfall-dominated action,both for upstream-and downstream-moving conditions.Furthermore,the responses of sediment erosion in downstream-moving condition were more significant than those in upstream-moving condition.This study indicated that a CCA between rainfall and hydrological characteristics is effective for further exploring the rainfall-runoff-erosion mechanism under conditions of moving rainfall,especially for the downstream movement condition.
文摘The Tahe Oilfield is a complex petroleum reservoir of Ordovician carbonate formation and made up of spatially overlapping fracture-cavity units. The oilfield is controlled by a cave system resulting from structure-karst cyclic sedimentation. Due to significant heterogeneity of the reservoir, the distribution of oil and water is complicated. Horizontally, a fresh water zone due to meteoric water can be found in the north part of the Akekule uplift. A marginal freshening zone caused by water released from mudstone compaction is found at the bottom of the southern slope. Located in a crossformational flow discharge zone caused by centripetal and the centrifugal flows, the main part of the Tahe Oilfield, featuring high salinity and concentrations of CI^- and K^＋＋Na^＋, is favorable for accumulation of hydrocarbon. Three types of formation water in the Tahe Ordovician reservoir are identified： （1） residual water at the bottom of the cave after oil and gas displacement, （2） residual water in fractures/pores around the cave after oil and gas displacement, and （3） interlayer water below reservoirs. The cave system is the main reservoir space, which consists of the main cave, branch caves and depressions between caves. Taking Cave System S48 in the Ordovician reservoir as an example, the paper analyzes the fluid distribution and exploitation performance in the cave system. Owing to evaporation of groundwater during cross-formational flow, the central part of the main cave, where oil layers are thick and there is a high degree of displacement, is characterized by high salinity and Br^- concentration. With high potential and a long stable production period, most wells in the central part of the main cave have a long water-free oil production period. Even after water breakthrough, the water content has a slow or stepwise increase and the hydrochemistral characteristics of the produced water in the central part of the main cave are uniform. From the center to the edge of the main cave, displacement and enrichment of oil/gas become weaker, residual water increases, and the salinity and concentration of Br^- decrease. At the edge of the main cave, although the wells have a high deliverability at the beginning with a short stable production period and water-free production period. After water breakthrough, the pressure and deliverability drop quickly, and the water content rises quickly. The hydrochemistral characteristics of the produced water are relatively uniform. Wells in the branch caves have a relatively low deliverability at the beginning, with a short stable production period. Water breakthrough appears quickly and then the pressure and deliverability drop quickly. The salinity and concentrations of CI^-and K^＋＋Na^＋ are usually fluctuant or descend slowly in the produced water. Wells in low areas of ancient karst have a low deliverability and a short stable production period. The yield drops quickly and the water content is high, while the characteristics of the produced water may vary significantly well to well. The salinity and concentrations of CI^-and K^＋＋Na^＋ in the produced water are usually fluctuant with a precipitous decline.
基金Supported by Study of Water Consumption Coefficient in the Irrigation Area of the Yellow River Basin in Qinghai Province(QX2012-019)
文摘The low degree of development and utilization as well as the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Huangshui River basin are the main restricting factors of the local agricultural development. The study on the simulation of irrigation water loss based on the VSMB model has very important significance to strengthening regional water management and improving water resource utilization efficiency. Five groundwater wells were set up to carry out the farmland irrigation water infiltration and the experimental study on groundwater dynamic effect. Two soil moisture monitoring sites were set up in two typical plots of Daxia and Guanting irrigation area at the same time and TDR300 was used to monitor four kinds of deep soil moisture( 10 cm,30 cm,50 cm and 70 cm). On this basis,the VSMB model was used to study the irrigation water loss in the irrigation area of Yellow River valley of Qinghai Province,including soil moisture content,the actual evapotranspiration,infiltration,runoff,groundwater buried depth and so on. The results showed that the water consumption caused by soil evaporation and crop transpiration accounted for 46. 4% and 24. 1% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 30. 3% and 60. 6% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,from March 1,2013 to April 30,and from August 1 to September 30. The actual evaporation of the GT- TR1 and GT- TR2 sites in the whole year of 2013 was 632. 6 mm and 646. 9 mm,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 2. 6% and 1. 2% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively. RMSE of the simulation results of the groundwater depth in Daxia irrigation area during the two periods was 92. 3 mm and 27. 7 mm,respectively. And RMSE of the simulation results of the water content of soil profile in the two monitoring sites of Guanting irrigation area was 2. 04% and 5. 81%,respectively,indicating that the simulation results were reliable.
文摘The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calculated by water diversion-recession method and water balance method. The average value of water diversion-recession method is 3.264 billion m3 and annual varia-tion is relatively steady. The result of water balance method is 3.937 billion m3 and annual variation is obvious. It is suggested that strengthen verification of entrances and monitoring of water diversion and recession.
基金the National Key Research and Development Programs of China(2016YFA0601501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41830863,51879162,41601025)the Belt and Road Fund on Water and Sustainability of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering(2019).
文摘Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.
基金Project(50809058)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50809058)the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (No.2010DFA24320)
文摘Regional drought analysis provides useful information for sustainable water resources management.In this paper,a standardized precipitation index(SPI) at multiple time scales was used to investigate the spatial patterns and trends of drought in the Han River Basin,one of the largest tributaries of Yangtze River,China.It was found that,in terms of drought severity,the upper basin of the Han River is the least,while the growing trend is the most conspicuous;a less conspicuous growing trend can be observed in the middle basin;and there is an insignificant decreasing trend in the lower basin.Meanwhile,the impact of drought on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project was investigated,and it is suggested that water intake must be reduced in times of drought,particularly when successive or simultaneous droughts in the upper and middle basins of the Han River Basin occur.The results can provide substantial information for future water allocation schemes of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.
基金Project(R5110012)supported by Special Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Zhejiang Province,ChinaProject(2009C33117)supported by The General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China
文摘An analytical approach was presented for estimating the factor of safety(FS) for slope failure, with consideration of the impact of a confined aquifer. An upward-moving wetting front from the confined water was assumed and the pore water pressure distribution was then estimated and used to obtain the analytical expression of FS. Then, the validation of the theoretical analysis was applied based on an actual case in Hong Kong. It is shown that the presence of a confined aquifer leads to a lower FS value, and the impact rate of hydrostatic pressure on FS increases as the confined water pressure increases, approaching to a maximum value determined by the ratio of water density to saturated soil density. It is also presented that the contribution of hydrostatic pressure and hydrodynamic pressure to the slope stability vary with the confined aquifer pressure.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China，the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very im- portant for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis are identified for the first time. The numeral unite spread assessment pedigree （NUSAP） method is introduced and is first employed to quantify qual- itative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. A pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional rainfall frequency analysis, by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified. Finally, the qualitative and quantitative uncertainties are com- bined in an uncertainty diagnostic diagram, which makes the uncertainty evaluation results more intuitive. From the integrated diagnostic diagram, it can be determined that the uncertainty caused by the precipitation data is the smallest, and the uncertainty from different grouping methods is the largest. For the downstream sub-region, a generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution is better than a generalized logistic （GLO） distribution; for the south sub-region, a Pearson type III （PE3） distribution is the better choice; and for the north sub-region, GEV is more appropriate.
基金Projcct supportcd by the International Scicncc ＆ Technology Co- operation Program of China （No. 2010DFA24320）, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Nos. 51379183 and 50809058） ~ Zhcjiang Univcrsity and Springcr-Vcrlag Bcrlin Hcidclberg 2014
文摘Recent years have seen a surge in assessment of potential impacts of climate change. As one of the most important tools for generating synthetic hydrological model inputs, weather generators have played an important role in climate change impact analysis of water management. However, most weather generators like statistical downscaling model （SDSM） and long Ashton research station weather generator （LARS-WG） are designed for single site data generation. Considering the significance of spatial correlations of hydro-meteorological data, multi-site weather data generation becomes a necessity. In this study we aim to evaluate the performance of a new multi-site stochastic model, geo-spatial temporal weather generator （GIST）, in simulating precipitation in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The correlation matrix, precipitation amount and occurrence of observed and GiST-generated data are first compared for the evaluation process. Then we use the GiST model combined with the change factor method （CFM） to investigate future changes of precipitation （2071 2100） in the study area using one global climate model, Hadgem2 ES, and an extreme emission scenario RCP 8.5, The final results show that the simulated precipitation amount and occurrence by GiST matched their historical counterparts reasonably. The correlation coefficients between simulated and his- torical precipitations show good consistence as well. Compared with the baseline period （1961 1990）, precipitation in the future time period （2071-2100） at high elevation stations will probably increase while at other stations decreases will occur. This study implies potential application of the GiST stochastic model in investigating the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources.
基金Project (No. 02CDP036) supported by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), the Netherlands
文摘For river basin management, the reliability of the rating curves mainly depends on the accuracy and time period of the observed discharge and water level data. In the Elbe decision support system (DSS), the rating curves are combined with the HEC-6 model to investigate the effects of river engineering measures on the Elbe River system. In such situations, the uncertainty originating from the HEC-6 model is of significant importance for the reliability of the rating curves and the corresponding DSS results. This paper proposes a two-step approach to analyze the uncertainty in the rating curves and propagate it into the Elbe DSS: analytic method and Latin Hypercube simulation. Via this approach the uncertainty and sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters are successfully investigated. The results show that the proposed approach is very efficient in investigating the effect of uncertainty and can play an important role in improving decision-making under uncertainty.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China(No.2011CB409901-01)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.R5110012)
文摘Based on the suspended sediment transport equation and transport capacity formula under the action of tidal currents and wind waves, a horizontal 2-D mathematical model of suspended sediment transport for estuaries and coastal regions is established. The verification of calculations shows that the sediment concentration distribution and sea bed deformation in the estuaries and coastal regions can be successfully simulated. Therefore, a new method for studying and solving the sediment problems in the estuarine and coastal engineering is presented.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program in the 12th Five-year Plan of China(Grant No.2012BAB02B05)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41301030)
文摘The impact of vegetation coverage on erosion and sediment yield in the Loess Plateau has been extensively studied,but the research has been primarily based on observations from slope runoff plots or secondary forest regions;the scaling method remains unresolved when it is applied at a large spatial scale,and it is difficult to apply to regions with severe soil and water loss given the predominance of herbs and shrubs.To date,there is little data on the quantitative impact of changes to vegetation on sediment concentration at a large spatial scale.This paper is based on vegetation information from remote sensing images,measured rainfall and sediment data over nearly 60 years,and results from previous runoff and sediment variation research on the Yellow River.We introduce the concepts of a sediment yield coefficient and the percentage of effective vegetation and erodible area,analyze the impact of different vegetation conditions on the flood sediment concentration and sediment yield,and evaluate the effect of rainfall intensity on sediment yield under different vegetation conditions at the watershed scale.We propose models to evaluate the impact of vegetation on sediment yield in the loess gully hilly region,which are based on remote sensing data and support an application at a large spatial scale.The models can be used to assess sediment reduction that results from the current significant improvement of vegetation in the Loess Plateau.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50538080 and 40839902)Projects of International Cooperation and Exchanges of National Natural Science Foundation of China (5101008)+2 种基金China National Funds for Distinguished Young Scientists (50425825)the National Science Foundation for Post-Doctoral Scientists of China (20090451472)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51008274)
文摘An one-dimensional model for contaminant advection and dispersion through a GCL/AL liner system was developed to analyze the equivalence between a GCL(geosynthetic clay liner) and a CCL(compacted clay liner).The continuity of contaminant concentration and flux at the interface between the GCL and the underlying attenuation liner(AL) are obeyed in the model,and background concentrations in the soil liner are also considered.Based on the assumption that contaminant transport through a GCL was a steady state process,an analytical solution was obtained.Increasing the leachate head from 0.3 m to 10 m results in a reduction of the breakthrough time of benzene by a factor of 2.7.The breakthrough time of benzene increases by a factor of 7.0 when the hydraulic conductivity of GCL decreases by one order of magnitude.The breakthrough curves are more sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of the GCL and AL(attenuation layer) than to the thickness of the AL.The standard 75 cm CCL can be replaced by a combination of a GCL and a 1.0-4.0 m thickness of AL.The proposed method can be used for preliminary design of GCL composite liners,assessing the equivalence between GCL and CCL,preliminary design of a remediation method for contaminated soils,and evaluating experimental results.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFE0122100)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91547106)
文摘Quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs)provided by three operational global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)from the THORPEX(The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE)archive were evaluated over the Qu River basin,China during the plum rain and typhoon seasons of 2009–13.Two post-processing methods,the ensemble model output statistics based on censored shifted gamma distribution(CSGD-EMOS)and quantile mapping(QM),were used to reduce bias and to improve the QPFs.The results were evaluated by using three incremental precipitation thresholds and multiple verification metrics.It is demonstrated that QPFs from NCEP and ECMWF presented similarly skillful forecasts,although the ECMWF QPFs performed more satisfactorily in the typhoon season and the NCEP QPFs were better in the plum rain season.Most of the verification metrics showed evident seasonal discriminations,with more satisfactory behavior in the plum rain season.Lighter precipitation tended to be overestimated,but heavier precipitation was always underestimated.The post-processed QPFs showed a significant improvement from the raw forecasts and the effects of post-processing varied with the lead time,precipitation threshold,and EPS.Precipitation was better corrected at longer lead times and higher thresholds.CSGD-EMOS was more effective for probabilistic metrics and the root-mean-square error.QM had a greater effect on removing bias according to bias and categorical metrics,but was unable to warrant reliabilities.In general,raw forecasts can provide acceptable QPFs eight days in advance.After post-processing,the useful forecasts can be significantly extended beyond 10 days,showing promising prospects for flood forecasting.
基金This work was supported by Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Y5100021)the Natural Science Foundation of China(41171276,51109183).
文摘Remote sensing technology is the important tool of digital earth,it can facilitate nutrient management in sustainable cropping systems.In the study,two types of radial basis function(RBF)neural network approaches,the standard radial basis function(SRBF)neural networks and the modified type of RBF,generalized regression neural networks(GRNN),were investigated in estimating the nitrogen concentrations of oilseed rape canopy using vegetation indices(VIs)and hyperspectral reflectance.Comparison analyses were performed to the spectral variables and the approaches.The Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and determination coefficients(R2)were used to assess their predictability of nitrogen concentrations.For all spectral variables(VIs and hyperspectral reflectance),the GRNN method produced more accurate estimates of nitrogen concentrations than did the SRBF method at all ranges of nitrogen concentrations,and the better agreements between the measured and the predicted nitrogen concentration were obtained with the GRNN method.This indicated that the GRNN method is prior to the SRBF method in estimation of nitrogen concentrations.Among the VIs,the Modified Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index(MCARI),MCARI1510,and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index are better than the others in estimating oilseed rape canopy nitrogen concentrations.Compared to the results from VIs,the hyperspectral reflectance data also gave an acceptable estimation.The study showed that nitrogen concentrations of oilseed rape canopy could be monitored using remotely sensed data and the RBF method,especially the GRNN method,is a useful explorative tool for oilseed rape nitrogen concentration monitoring when applied on hyperspectral data.
