This paper addresses to the problem of using SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 as a means for building probabilistic models and as optimum method of modeling gross domestic product in terms of the economic crisis and social th...This paper addresses to the problem of using SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 as a means for building probabilistic models and as optimum method of modeling gross domestic product in terms of the economic crisis and social threats is proposed. Today in a complex socio-political and economic situation growing influence of external factors, presence of uncertainties and risks there exists a problem of anticipating potential threats in the humanitarian and social spheres and ways to overcome them aiming to provide food security and controllability of ecological situation. All these problems, as reported in the NATO program ＂Science for Peace and Security＂, are of high priority for the countries that need to take into account threats to security, including Ukraine. That is why in the framework of the project NUKR. SFPP G4877 ＂Modeling and Mitigation of Social Disasters Caused by Catastrophes and Terrorism＂ the problems of scientific prediction of national economy for the period to 2030 as one of the measures preventing growth of social tension in the country are disclosed.展开更多
The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistic...The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistics, and is related to investigating the extreme deviations from the median values in probability distributions. Also, the methods for estimating unknown parameters and algorithm of random-number generation are discussed. The models of treatment the extreme values are constructed which are based on machine generated sample and approach is proposed for their future application for constructing forecasting models.展开更多
In times of active research of the possibilities of colonization of other planets,it is important to acquire the skills of forecasting weather conditions on the planets,which are the prospects for human settlement.In ...In times of active research of the possibilities of colonization of other planets,it is important to acquire the skills of forecasting weather conditions on the planets,which are the prospects for human settlement.In this research,the theoretical model is developed that describes the physical processes that occur in the atmosphere of Mars in order to calculate the surface temperature of the planet for any point of the planet’s area,time of day,and day of the year.The following theoretical model is implemented in computer software realized by Python programming language to calculate the necessary data.展开更多
This study develops a conceptual system optimization model of adoption of a new infrastructure technology with multiple resource sites and multiple demand sites. With the model, this paper analyzes how the distance, s...This study develops a conceptual system optimization model of adoption of a new infrastructure technology with multiple resource sites and multiple demand sites. With the model, this paper analyzes how the distance, spillover effect, demand, initial investment cost, and learning rate influence the adoption of the new infrastructure technology and presents optimization results of the model in different scenarios. The main findings of the study are： from the perspective of system optimization, （1） different distances among different resource-demand pairs will result in different adoption time of a new infrastructure; （2） technological spillover among different resource-demand pairs will accelerate the adoption of a new infrastructuxe; （3） it is hard to say that higher demand will pull faster adoption of a new infrastructure, and the optimal time of adopting of a new infrastructure is very sensitive to its technological learning rate.展开更多
The Agriculture,Forestry,and Other Land Use(AFOLU)sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.However,a knowledge gap remains rega...The Agriculture,Forestry,and Other Land Use(AFOLU)sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.However,a knowledge gap remains regarding whether current ambitions can achieve the temperature targets.This study established a 4-step analytical framework to evaluate the mitigation targets,pledged ambitions,and implementation within the AFOLU sector based on the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies of the typical 80 countries.The results indicated that 58 countries set quantitative mitigation targets,including emission and activity targets.Twenty-six countries established emission targets for 2030,representing a median emission reduction ambition of 25.5%.AFOLU's emissions are expected to be reduced by 1,305.26 Mt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1),approximately 16%of total emissions,if unconditional emission targets are met,and 2,230.20 Mt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1),approximately 27%of total emissions,if conditional emission targets are met.Compared to emission targets,activity targets lead to higher ambitions,with a 2.52 Gt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1)economic potential,approximately 30%of total emissions,and a 4.41 Gt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1)technical potential,approximately 53%of total emissions.The identified finance needs are at least 842.98 billion USD by 2030,far exceeding current investment levels,yet still falls short of achieving the temperature targets.Currently,51 of the 58 countries have proposed policy instruments to help realize their targets,with regulatory and cognitive instruments playing fundamental roles.However,ambiguous,incoherent,and inadequate policy information leads to uncertainties regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of mitigation ambitions and their implementation.展开更多
The response of the agro-ecological system to the environment includes the response of individual crop＇s physiologic process and the adaption of the crop commu- nity to the environment. Observation and simulation at ...The response of the agro-ecological system to the environment includes the response of individual crop＇s physiologic process and the adaption of the crop commu- nity to the environment. Observation and simulation at the single scale level cannot fully explain the above process. It is necessary to develop cross-scale agro-ecological models and study the interaction of agro-ecological processes across different scales. In this research, two typical agro- ecological models, the Decision Support System for Agro- technology Transfer （DSSAT） model and the Agro- ecological Zone （AEZ） model, are employed, and a framework for effective cross-scale data-model fusion is proposed and illustrated. The national observed data from 36 different agricultural observation stations and historical weather stations （1962-1999） are employed to estimate average crop productivity. Comparison of the two models＇ estimations are consistent, which would indicate the possibility ofcross-scale crop model fusion.展开更多
文摘This paper addresses to the problem of using SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 as a means for building probabilistic models and as optimum method of modeling gross domestic product in terms of the economic crisis and social threats is proposed. Today in a complex socio-political and economic situation growing influence of external factors, presence of uncertainties and risks there exists a problem of anticipating potential threats in the humanitarian and social spheres and ways to overcome them aiming to provide food security and controllability of ecological situation. All these problems, as reported in the NATO program ＂Science for Peace and Security＂, are of high priority for the countries that need to take into account threats to security, including Ukraine. That is why in the framework of the project NUKR. SFPP G4877 ＂Modeling and Mitigation of Social Disasters Caused by Catastrophes and Terrorism＂ the problems of scientific prediction of national economy for the period to 2030 as one of the measures preventing growth of social tension in the country are disclosed.
文摘The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistics, and is related to investigating the extreme deviations from the median values in probability distributions. Also, the methods for estimating unknown parameters and algorithm of random-number generation are discussed. The models of treatment the extreme values are constructed which are based on machine generated sample and approach is proposed for their future application for constructing forecasting models.
文摘In times of active research of the possibilities of colonization of other planets,it is important to acquire the skills of forecasting weather conditions on the planets,which are the prospects for human settlement.In this research,the theoretical model is developed that describes the physical processes that occur in the atmosphere of Mars in order to calculate the surface temperature of the planet for any point of the planet’s area,time of day,and day of the year.The following theoretical model is implemented in computer software realized by Python programming language to calculate the necessary data.
文摘This study develops a conceptual system optimization model of adoption of a new infrastructure technology with multiple resource sites and multiple demand sites. With the model, this paper analyzes how the distance, spillover effect, demand, initial investment cost, and learning rate influence the adoption of the new infrastructure technology and presents optimization results of the model in different scenarios. The main findings of the study are： from the perspective of system optimization, （1） different distances among different resource-demand pairs will result in different adoption time of a new infrastructure; （2） technological spillover among different resource-demand pairs will accelerate the adoption of a new infrastructuxe; （3） it is hard to say that higher demand will pull faster adoption of a new infrastructure, and the optimal time of adopting of a new infrastructure is very sensitive to its technological learning rate.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(2023YFE0113000)key projects of the National Social Science Fund of China(22AZD098)
文摘The Agriculture,Forestry,and Other Land Use(AFOLU)sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.However,a knowledge gap remains regarding whether current ambitions can achieve the temperature targets.This study established a 4-step analytical framework to evaluate the mitigation targets,pledged ambitions,and implementation within the AFOLU sector based on the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies of the typical 80 countries.The results indicated that 58 countries set quantitative mitigation targets,including emission and activity targets.Twenty-six countries established emission targets for 2030,representing a median emission reduction ambition of 25.5%.AFOLU's emissions are expected to be reduced by 1,305.26 Mt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1),approximately 16%of total emissions,if unconditional emission targets are met,and 2,230.20 Mt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1),approximately 27%of total emissions,if conditional emission targets are met.Compared to emission targets,activity targets lead to higher ambitions,with a 2.52 Gt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1)economic potential,approximately 30%of total emissions,and a 4.41 Gt CO_(2)-eq year^(-1)technical potential,approximately 53%of total emissions.The identified finance needs are at least 842.98 billion USD by 2030,far exceeding current investment levels,yet still falls short of achieving the temperature targets.Currently,51 of the 58 countries have proposed policy instruments to help realize their targets,with regulatory and cognitive instruments playing fundamental roles.However,ambiguous,incoherent,and inadequate policy information leads to uncertainties regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of mitigation ambitions and their implementation.
文摘The response of the agro-ecological system to the environment includes the response of individual crop＇s physiologic process and the adaption of the crop commu- nity to the environment. Observation and simulation at the single scale level cannot fully explain the above process. It is necessary to develop cross-scale agro-ecological models and study the interaction of agro-ecological processes across different scales. In this research, two typical agro- ecological models, the Decision Support System for Agro- technology Transfer （DSSAT） model and the Agro- ecological Zone （AEZ） model, are employed, and a framework for effective cross-scale data-model fusion is proposed and illustrated. The national observed data from 36 different agricultural observation stations and historical weather stations （1962-1999） are employed to estimate average crop productivity. Comparison of the two models＇ estimations are consistent, which would indicate the possibility ofcross-scale crop model fusion.
