Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak has spread as a pandemic since the end of year 2019.This situation has been causing a lot of problems of human beings such as economic problems,health problems.The forecasting of the ...Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak has spread as a pandemic since the end of year 2019.This situation has been causing a lot of problems of human beings such as economic problems,health problems.The forecasting of the number of infectious people is required by the authorities of all countries including Southeast Asian countries to make a decision and control the outbreak.This research is to investigate the suitable forecasting model for the number of infectious people in Southeast Asian countries.A comparison of forecasting models between logistic growth curve which is symmetric and Gompertz growth curve which is asymmetric based on the maximumof Coefficient of Determination and theminimumof RootMean Squared Percentage Error is also proposed.The estimation of parameters of the forecasting models is evaluated by the least square method.In addition,spreading of the outbreak is estimated by the derivative of the number of cumulative cases.The findings show that Gompertz growth curve is a suitable forecasting model for Indonesia,Philippines,andMalaysia and logistic growth curve suits the other countries in South Asia.展开更多
Objective:To define the alert levels for the total number of COVID-19 cases derived by using quantile functions to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks via an exponentially weighted moving-average(EWMA)control chart based on th...Objective:To define the alert levels for the total number of COVID-19 cases derived by using quantile functions to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks via an exponentially weighted moving-average(EWMA)control chart based on the first hitting time of the total number of COVID-19 cases following a symmetric logistic growth curve.Methods:The cumulative distribution function of the time for the total number of COVID-19 cases was used to construct a quantile function for classifying COVID-19 alert levels.The EWMA control chart control limits for monitoring a COVID-19 outbreak were formulated by applying the delta method and the sample mean and variance method.Samples were selected from countries and region including Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong to generate the total number of COVID-19 cases from February 15,2020 to December 16,2020,all of which followed symmetric patterns.A comparison of the two methods was made by applying them to a EWMA control chart based on the first hitting time for monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak in the sampled countries and region.Results:The optimal first hitting times for the EWMA control chart for monitoring COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong were approximately 280,208,286,and 298 days,respectively.Conclusions:The findings show that the sample mean and variance method can detect the first hitting time better than the delta method.Moreover,the COVID-19 alert levels can be defined into four stages for monitoring COVID-19 situation,which help the authorities to enact policies that monitor,control,and protect the population from a COVID-19 outbreak.展开更多
基金The research was funding by King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok Contract No.KMUTNB-61-GOV-03-23.
文摘Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak has spread as a pandemic since the end of year 2019.This situation has been causing a lot of problems of human beings such as economic problems,health problems.The forecasting of the number of infectious people is required by the authorities of all countries including Southeast Asian countries to make a decision and control the outbreak.This research is to investigate the suitable forecasting model for the number of infectious people in Southeast Asian countries.A comparison of forecasting models between logistic growth curve which is symmetric and Gompertz growth curve which is asymmetric based on the maximumof Coefficient of Determination and theminimumof RootMean Squared Percentage Error is also proposed.The estimation of parameters of the forecasting models is evaluated by the least square method.In addition,spreading of the outbreak is estimated by the derivative of the number of cumulative cases.The findings show that Gompertz growth curve is a suitable forecasting model for Indonesia,Philippines,andMalaysia and logistic growth curve suits the other countries in South Asia.
基金funding by King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok Contract no.KMUTNB-61-KNOW-014
文摘Objective:To define the alert levels for the total number of COVID-19 cases derived by using quantile functions to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks via an exponentially weighted moving-average(EWMA)control chart based on the first hitting time of the total number of COVID-19 cases following a symmetric logistic growth curve.Methods:The cumulative distribution function of the time for the total number of COVID-19 cases was used to construct a quantile function for classifying COVID-19 alert levels.The EWMA control chart control limits for monitoring a COVID-19 outbreak were formulated by applying the delta method and the sample mean and variance method.Samples were selected from countries and region including Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong to generate the total number of COVID-19 cases from February 15,2020 to December 16,2020,all of which followed symmetric patterns.A comparison of the two methods was made by applying them to a EWMA control chart based on the first hitting time for monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak in the sampled countries and region.Results:The optimal first hitting times for the EWMA control chart for monitoring COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong were approximately 280,208,286,and 298 days,respectively.Conclusions:The findings show that the sample mean and variance method can detect the first hitting time better than the delta method.Moreover,the COVID-19 alert levels can be defined into four stages for monitoring COVID-19 situation,which help the authorities to enact policies that monitor,control,and protect the population from a COVID-19 outbreak.
