There is a widespread policy assumption that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the main driver of the observed 1°C rise in global surface air temperatures since‘pre-industrial’times.This paper demonstrates tha...There is a widespread policy assumption that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the main driver of the observed 1°C rise in global surface air temperatures since‘pre-industrial’times.This paper demonstrates that the onset of the current warming trend began in the mid-19th century and is consistent with the rising phase of variable global warming and cooling cycles in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.Hemispheres.The last trough of the millennial cycle,the Little Ice Age,coincides approximately with the baseline of pre-industrial times used to calculate the impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming.Yet,half of the observed 20th century temperature rise occurred before 1950 when carbon dioxide levels remained low,with the remaining half happening at a similar rate of warming despite the much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.This study shows that when the amplitudes and rates of change of the long-term global cycles are considered,the anthropogenic component of warming can be reduced to 38%(using factors derived from the latest IPCC Working Group reports)to as little as 25%(using observational flux data of dominant Short Wave Absorbed Surface Radiation).These global climate cycles can be extrapolated into the future and the implications for policy of a large natural component to climate change are explored—in particular,the potential for mitigation strategies to have minimal impact and for the climate to cool consequent upon a cyclic down-phase.展开更多
文摘There is a widespread policy assumption that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the main driver of the observed 1°C rise in global surface air temperatures since‘pre-industrial’times.This paper demonstrates that the onset of the current warming trend began in the mid-19th century and is consistent with the rising phase of variable global warming and cooling cycles in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.Hemispheres.The last trough of the millennial cycle,the Little Ice Age,coincides approximately with the baseline of pre-industrial times used to calculate the impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming.Yet,half of the observed 20th century temperature rise occurred before 1950 when carbon dioxide levels remained low,with the remaining half happening at a similar rate of warming despite the much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.This study shows that when the amplitudes and rates of change of the long-term global cycles are considered,the anthropogenic component of warming can be reduced to 38%(using factors derived from the latest IPCC Working Group reports)to as little as 25%(using observational flux data of dominant Short Wave Absorbed Surface Radiation).These global climate cycles can be extrapolated into the future and the implications for policy of a large natural component to climate change are explored—in particular,the potential for mitigation strategies to have minimal impact and for the climate to cool consequent upon a cyclic down-phase.
