This paper celebrates Professor Yongqi GAO's significant achievement in the field of interdisciplinary studies within the context of his final research project Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient Sus...This paper celebrates Professor Yongqi GAO's significant achievement in the field of interdisciplinary studies within the context of his final research project Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient Sustainable Societies-ARCPATH(https://www.svs.is/en/projects/finished-projects/arcpath). The disciplines represented in the project are related to climatology, anthropology, marine biology, economics, and the broad spectrum of social-ecological studies. Team members were drawn from the Nordic countries, Russia, China, the United States, and Canada. The project was transdisciplinary as well as interdisciplinary as it included collaboration with local knowledge holders. ARCPATH made significant contributions to Arctic research through an improved understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate variability in the Arctic. In tandem with this research, a combination of historical investigations and social, economic, and marine biological fieldwork was carried out for the project study areas of Iceland, Greenland, Norway, and the surrounding seas, with a focus on the joint use of ocean and sea-ice data as well as social-ecological drivers. ARCPATH was able to provide an improved framework for predicting the near-term variation of Arctic climate on spatial scales relevant to society, as well as evaluating possible related changes in socioeconomic realms. In summary, through the integration of information from several different disciplines and research approaches, ARCPATH served to create new and valuable knowledge on crucial issues, thus providing new pathways to action for Arctic communities.展开更多
Given the contemporary increase in the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards(droughts,foods,tropical storms,heatwaves),heightened attention of governments,scientists,media,and humanita...Given the contemporary increase in the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards(droughts,foods,tropical storms,heatwaves),heightened attention of governments,scientists,media,and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning systems.The focus of this article is multidisciplinary and multifaceted:it involves connecting an earliest warning indicator associated with the Oceanic Niño Index,one that complements the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicator,with early warning early action and anticipatory action approaches for disaster risk reduction(DRR).This new indicator in theory at least could increase the lead time between the release of an ofcial forecast of an El Niño and the frst appearance of its adverse impacts,thereby serving as the earliest warning of an event.As such,this DRR research links new usable earliest warning information,providing additional time to initiate tactical actions to cope with El Niño-spawned hydromet hazards.Integrating an earliest indicator of the likely onset of an El Niño into early action frameworks would hasten humanitarian assistance by providing at-risk communities and humanitarian organizations with more time to consider a range of options for responding to El Niño’s impacts.展开更多
Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR):...Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.展开更多
NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is...NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.展开更多
The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet refle...The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.展开更多
This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had...This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.展开更多
Natural hazards and their related impacts can have powerful implications for humanity,particularly communities with deep reliance on natural resources.The development of effective early warning systems(EWS)can contrib...Natural hazards and their related impacts can have powerful implications for humanity,particularly communities with deep reliance on natural resources.The development of effective early warning systems(EWS)can contribute to reducing natural hazard impacts on communities by improving risk reduction strategies and activities.However,current shortcomings in the conception and applications of EWS undermine risk reduction at the grassroots level.This article explores various pathways to involve local communities in EWS from top-down to more participatory approaches.Based on a literature review and three case studies that outline various levels of participation in EWS in Kenya,Hawai'i,and Sri Lanka,the article suggests a need to review the way EWS are designed and applied,promoting a shift from the traditional expert-driven approach to one that is embedded at the grassroots level and driven by the vulnerable communities.Such a community-centric approach also raises multiple challenges linked to a necessary shift of conception of EWS and highlights the need for more research on pathways for sustainable community engagement.展开更多
This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of inte...This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.展开更多
This article assesses the current state of disaster risk reduction(DRR) in the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA),and focuses on interventions and policies to mitigate hydrometeorological risks. The research analyzes, as mai...This article assesses the current state of disaster risk reduction(DRR) in the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA),and focuses on interventions and policies to mitigate hydrometeorological risks. The research analyzes, as main case study, the program 'Regional Climate Prediction and Risk Reduction in the Greater Horn of Africa'funded by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance(USAID OFDA) in the early 2000 that targeted risk preparedness.The research method combines a desk review of relevant documents and research papers with surveys and interviews directed to key proponents of DRR across the GHA. Results highlight current strengths and weaknesses in the way DRR is implemented in the GHA. Significant improvements in the climate-forecasting capabilities in the GHA since the 2000 s are acknowledged, but the practice of DRR remains technology driven and impacts on the ground are limited. The key findings highlight the significant communication gaps that exist between the producers of climate information and their end users, the communities at risk. The article urges the establishment of bridges that connect climate experts, policymakers, and representatives of the local communities, and for the implementation of a feedback loop from forecast users to their producers, in order to strengthen risk resilience across the GHA.展开更多
On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older st...On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older structures while comparatively few deaths resulted from the shaking(including from landslides),illustrating how decades of initiatives and efforts in disaster risk reduction can reduce vulnerability,ensuring that a hazard does not展开更多
The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual...The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Kppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Nios in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Nio event,this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Nio-related hydrometeorological threats.Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Nio's impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circumCaribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.展开更多
In the midst of assessing and critiquing the document produced by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR)in Sendai,Japan,I came to realize that we tend to focus on the document itself and less so on the...In the midst of assessing and critiquing the document produced by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR)in Sendai,Japan,I came to realize that we tend to focus on the document itself and less so on the good intentions of many of the delegates and展开更多
Current discussions of the social phenomenon of“vaccine hesitancy”with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hyd...Current discussions of the social phenomenon of“vaccine hesitancy”with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards.Hesitancy,that is,provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed.Without exaggeration,just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual,community,and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable,relatively near-term climate,water,or weather hazards.Reasons for such hesitancy(for vaccine and forecast use alike)include—among others—lack of trust in the science,lack of confidence in government,and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health.As such,a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed.This better understanding will facilitate,where necessary,targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of“forecast hesitancy.”First,this article focuses on incidents of“vaccine hesitancy”that,for various reasons,people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available,and confirmed efficacious,Covid-19 vaccines.Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021,despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus.After,the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.展开更多
Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.Brazil,Peru,and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region.These countries also face synergistic threats ...Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.Brazil,Peru,and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region.These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases(that is,ecosyndemic)and quasi-periodic El Niño-related hazards every few years.For example,Peru,which is highly sensitive to El Niño,already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events.Using an ecosyndemic lens,which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place,this commentary highlights the importance of El Niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate COVID-19 incidence in the future,but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.展开更多
Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of m...Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models,but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study,an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights,and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method,and the major research areas that models impact are identified.展开更多
The Anthropocene as a prospective new,ongoing series/epoch must be defensible against all relevant concerns.We address the seven,still-relevant challenges posed to the Anthropocene Working Group by the Chair,Internati...The Anthropocene as a prospective new,ongoing series/epoch must be defensible against all relevant concerns.We address the seven,still-relevant challenges posed to the Anthropocene Working Group by the Chair,International Commission on Stratigraphy(ICS),in 2014.(1)Concept or reality?The Anthropocene possesses a substantial,sharply distinctive stratigraphic record recognisable through many proxy signals from the mid-20th century onwards;(2)GSSP or GSSA?The Anthropocene can be defined by a GSSP and correlated globally;(3)Past or future?The Anthropocene unquestionably represents geological time,its transformations having already moved the Earth System beyond Holocene norms towards an irreversible future trajectory;(4)Utility?The Anthropocene’s distinctive material content allows useful delineation on geological sections/maps;(5)Indelibility?Many of the Anthropocene’s transformative effects cannot be subsequently effaced or overprinted;(6)Fit within the Geological Time Scale(GTS)?The Anthropocene represents a unique,youngest,interval in Earth history and strata of profound significance;(7)What is its value?The chronostratigraphic Anthropocene has conceptual usefulness even informally,but would then lack the clarity,stability and recognition that formalization provides.Without its formalization,the GTS would no longer accurately reflect Earth history,diminishing the relevance of geological science for analysis of ongoing planetary change.展开更多
基金the Nord Forsk-funded Nordic Centre of Excellence project (Award 766654) Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient,Sustainable Societies (ARCPATH)National Science Foundation Award 212786 Synthesizing Historical Sea-Ice Records to Constrain and Understand Great Sea-Ice Anomalies (ICEHIST) PI Martin MILES,Co-PI Astrid OGILVIE+12 种基金American-Scandinavian Foundation Award Whales and Ice: Marine-mammal subsistence use in times of famine in Iceland ca.A.D.1600–1900 (ICEWHALE),PI Astrid OGILVIESocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Award 435-2018-0194 Northern Knowledge for Resilience,Sustainable Environments and Adaptation in Coastal Communities (NORSEACC),PI Leslie KING,Co-PI,Astrid OGILVIEToward Just,Ethical and Sustainable Arctic Economies,Environments and Societies (JUSTNORTH).EU H2020 (https://www.svs.is/en/ projects/ongoing-projects/justnorth-2020-2023)INTO THE OCEANIC by Elizabeth OGILVIE and Robert PAGE (https://www.intotheo ceanic.org/introduction)Proxy Assimilation for Reconstructing Climate and Improving Model (PARCIM) funded by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,led by Fran?ois COUNILLON,PI Noel KEENLYSIDEAccelerated Arctic and Tibetan Plateau Warming: Processes and Combined Impact on Eurasian Climate (COMBINED),Research Council of Norway (Grant No.328935),Led by Noel KEENLYSIDEArven etter Nansen programme (the Nansen Legacy Project),Research Council of Norway (Grant No.276730),PI Noel KEENLYSIDEBjerknes Climate Prediction Unit,funded by Trond Mohn Foundation (Grant BFS2018TMT01) Centre for Research-based Innovation Climate Futures,Research Council of Norway (Grant No.309562),PIs Noel KEENLYSIDE,Francois COUNILLONDeveloping and Advancing Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice (4ICE),Research Council of Norway (Grant No.254765),PI Francois COUNILLONTropical and South Atlantic Climate-Based Marine Ecosystem Prediction for Sustainable Management (TRIATLAS) European Union Horizon 2020 (Grant No.817578),led by Noel KEENLYSIDE,PI Fran?ois COUNILLONImpetus4Change,European Union Horizon Europe (Grant No.101081555),PIs Noel KEENLYSIDE,Fran?ois COUNILLONLaboratory for Climate Predictability,Russian Megagrant funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement No.075-15-2021-577),led by Noel KEENLYSIDE,PI Segey GULEVRapid Arctic Environmental Changes: Implications for Well-Being,Resilience and Evolution of Arctic Communities (RACE),Belmont Forum (RCN Grant No.312017),PIs Sergey GULEV and Noel KEENLYSIDE。
文摘This paper celebrates Professor Yongqi GAO's significant achievement in the field of interdisciplinary studies within the context of his final research project Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient Sustainable Societies-ARCPATH(https://www.svs.is/en/projects/finished-projects/arcpath). The disciplines represented in the project are related to climatology, anthropology, marine biology, economics, and the broad spectrum of social-ecological studies. Team members were drawn from the Nordic countries, Russia, China, the United States, and Canada. The project was transdisciplinary as well as interdisciplinary as it included collaboration with local knowledge holders. ARCPATH made significant contributions to Arctic research through an improved understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate variability in the Arctic. In tandem with this research, a combination of historical investigations and social, economic, and marine biological fieldwork was carried out for the project study areas of Iceland, Greenland, Norway, and the surrounding seas, with a focus on the joint use of ocean and sea-ice data as well as social-ecological drivers. ARCPATH was able to provide an improved framework for predicting the near-term variation of Arctic climate on spatial scales relevant to society, as well as evaluating possible related changes in socioeconomic realms. In summary, through the integration of information from several different disciplines and research approaches, ARCPATH served to create new and valuable knowledge on crucial issues, thus providing new pathways to action for Arctic communities.
基金support provided by the Office of U.S.Foreign Disaster Assistance,Bureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian Assistancem U.S. Agency for International Development
文摘Given the contemporary increase in the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards(droughts,foods,tropical storms,heatwaves),heightened attention of governments,scientists,media,and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning systems.The focus of this article is multidisciplinary and multifaceted:it involves connecting an earliest warning indicator associated with the Oceanic Niño Index,one that complements the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicator,with early warning early action and anticipatory action approaches for disaster risk reduction(DRR).This new indicator in theory at least could increase the lead time between the release of an ofcial forecast of an El Niño and the frst appearance of its adverse impacts,thereby serving as the earliest warning of an event.As such,this DRR research links new usable earliest warning information,providing additional time to initiate tactical actions to cope with El Niño-spawned hydromet hazards.Integrating an earliest indicator of the likely onset of an El Niño into early action frameworks would hasten humanitarian assistance by providing at-risk communities and humanitarian organizations with more time to consider a range of options for responding to El Niño’s impacts.
文摘Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.
基金made possible through the support provided by the Office of U.S.Foreign Disaster AssistanceBureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian AssistanceU.S.Agency for International Development。
文摘NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.
文摘The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.
文摘This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.
文摘Natural hazards and their related impacts can have powerful implications for humanity,particularly communities with deep reliance on natural resources.The development of effective early warning systems(EWS)can contribute to reducing natural hazard impacts on communities by improving risk reduction strategies and activities.However,current shortcomings in the conception and applications of EWS undermine risk reduction at the grassroots level.This article explores various pathways to involve local communities in EWS from top-down to more participatory approaches.Based on a literature review and three case studies that outline various levels of participation in EWS in Kenya,Hawai'i,and Sri Lanka,the article suggests a need to review the way EWS are designed and applied,promoting a shift from the traditional expert-driven approach to one that is embedded at the grassroots level and driven by the vulnerable communities.Such a community-centric approach also raises multiple challenges linked to a necessary shift of conception of EWS and highlights the need for more research on pathways for sustainable community engagement.
文摘This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.
基金support of the Office of US Foreign Disaster AssistanceBureau for Democracy+7 种基金Conflict and Humanitarian AssistanceUS Agency for International Developmentthe IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC in Nairobi)NOAA’s National Weather Servicethe University of Nairobithe University of Coloradothe Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)One Acre Fund NGO
文摘This article assesses the current state of disaster risk reduction(DRR) in the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA),and focuses on interventions and policies to mitigate hydrometeorological risks. The research analyzes, as main case study, the program 'Regional Climate Prediction and Risk Reduction in the Greater Horn of Africa'funded by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance(USAID OFDA) in the early 2000 that targeted risk preparedness.The research method combines a desk review of relevant documents and research papers with surveys and interviews directed to key proponents of DRR across the GHA. Results highlight current strengths and weaknesses in the way DRR is implemented in the GHA. Significant improvements in the climate-forecasting capabilities in the GHA since the 2000 s are acknowledged, but the practice of DRR remains technology driven and impacts on the ground are limited. The key findings highlight the significant communication gaps that exist between the producers of climate information and their end users, the communities at risk. The article urges the establishment of bridges that connect climate experts, policymakers, and representatives of the local communities, and for the implementation of a feedback loop from forecast users to their producers, in order to strengthen risk resilience across the GHA.
文摘On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older structures while comparatively few deaths resulted from the shaking(including from landslides),illustrating how decades of initiatives and efforts in disaster risk reduction can reduce vulnerability,ensuring that a hazard does not
基金the support provided by the Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance,Bureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance,US Agency for International Development
文摘The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Kppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Nios in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Nio event,this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Nio-related hydrometeorological threats.Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Nio's impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circumCaribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.
文摘In the midst of assessing and critiquing the document produced by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR)in Sendai,Japan,I came to realize that we tend to focus on the document itself and less so on the good intentions of many of the delegates and
基金This report was made possible through support provided by the Office of U.S.Foreign Disaster Assistance,Bureau for Democracy,Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance,U.S.Agency for International Development,under the terms of Award No.Z12-96974.
文摘Current discussions of the social phenomenon of“vaccine hesitancy”with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards.Hesitancy,that is,provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed.Without exaggeration,just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual,community,and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable,relatively near-term climate,water,or weather hazards.Reasons for such hesitancy(for vaccine and forecast use alike)include—among others—lack of trust in the science,lack of confidence in government,and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health.As such,a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed.This better understanding will facilitate,where necessary,targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of“forecast hesitancy.”First,this article focuses on incidents of“vaccine hesitancy”that,for various reasons,people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available,and confirmed efficacious,Covid-19 vaccines.Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021,despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus.After,the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.
文摘Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.Brazil,Peru,and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region.These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases(that is,ecosyndemic)and quasi-periodic El Niño-related hazards every few years.For example,Peru,which is highly sensitive to El Niño,already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events.Using an ecosyndemic lens,which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place,this commentary highlights the importance of El Niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate COVID-19 incidence in the future,but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant number 2022YFF0711604)the General Project of the NSF of China(Grant number 42071363).
文摘Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models,but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study,an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights,and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method,and the major research areas that models impact are identified.
文摘The Anthropocene as a prospective new,ongoing series/epoch must be defensible against all relevant concerns.We address the seven,still-relevant challenges posed to the Anthropocene Working Group by the Chair,International Commission on Stratigraphy(ICS),in 2014.(1)Concept or reality?The Anthropocene possesses a substantial,sharply distinctive stratigraphic record recognisable through many proxy signals from the mid-20th century onwards;(2)GSSP or GSSA?The Anthropocene can be defined by a GSSP and correlated globally;(3)Past or future?The Anthropocene unquestionably represents geological time,its transformations having already moved the Earth System beyond Holocene norms towards an irreversible future trajectory;(4)Utility?The Anthropocene’s distinctive material content allows useful delineation on geological sections/maps;(5)Indelibility?Many of the Anthropocene’s transformative effects cannot be subsequently effaced or overprinted;(6)Fit within the Geological Time Scale(GTS)?The Anthropocene represents a unique,youngest,interval in Earth history and strata of profound significance;(7)What is its value?The chronostratigraphic Anthropocene has conceptual usefulness even informally,but would then lack the clarity,stability and recognition that formalization provides.Without its formalization,the GTS would no longer accurately reflect Earth history,diminishing the relevance of geological science for analysis of ongoing planetary change.
