Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily ...Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.展开更多
In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided ...In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.展开更多
Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climat...Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security.In this study,based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways(RCPs) in 2011–2040(2020 s),2041–2070(2050 s) and 2071–2100(2080 s),we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020 s,2050 s,and 2080 s,respectively.The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin.Our simulations revealed that:(1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time;(2) in the middle of this century(2050 s),total rapeseed production would increase significantly;(3) the average production potential increase in the 2050 s for the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939,1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively;(4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi,central and eastern Hubei,northern Hunan,central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.展开更多
Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly...Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.展开更多
Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely imp...Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism framework.Based on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)scenario.The results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.The direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.展开更多
Petroleum and Natural Gas still represent a considerable share in terms of energy consumption in the current global matrix, so that its exploration/exploitation is present in the market and driving activities in locat...Petroleum and Natural Gas still represent a considerable share in terms of energy consumption in the current global matrix, so that its exploration/exploitation is present in the market and driving activities in locations of specific complexities, as the ones along unconventional hydrocarbon resources from the Brazilian pre-salt. The daily cost of well drilling under harsh conditions can exceed US $1 million a day, turning any type of downtime or necessary maintenance during the activities to be very costly, moment in which processes optimization starts to be a key factor in costs reduction. Thus, new technologies and methods in terms of automating and optimizing the processes may be of great advantages, having its impact in total related project costs. In this context, the goal of this research is to allow a computation tool supporting achieving a more efficient drilling process, by means of drilling mechanics parameters choosiness aiming rate of penetration (ROP) maximization and mechanic specific energy (MSE) minimization. Conceptually, driven by the pre-operational drilling test curve trends, the proposed system allows it to be performed with less human influences and being updateable automatically, allowing more precision and time reduction by selecting optimum parameters. A Web Operating System (Web OS) was designed and implemented, running in online servers, granting accessibility to it with any device that has a browser and internet connection. It allows processing the drilling parameters supplied and feed into it, issuing outcomes with optimum values in a faster and precise way, allowing reducing operating time.展开更多
The global landscape of the twenty-first century is increasingly shaped by an intricate web of interconnected crises.Such a system of crises—the polycrisis—is characterized by mutual amplification of nested and inte...The global landscape of the twenty-first century is increasingly shaped by an intricate web of interconnected crises.Such a system of crises—the polycrisis—is characterized by mutual amplification of nested and intertwined risks and requires novel approaches to analysis,assessment,and governance.展开更多
With multiple risks interacting and shocks proliferating across geographies and sectors,the concept of polycrisis has come to the fore.Polycrisis describes interwoven and overlapping crises that cannot be understood o...With multiple risks interacting and shocks proliferating across geographies and sectors,the concept of polycrisis has come to the fore.Polycrisis describes interwoven and overlapping crises that cannot be understood or resolved in isolation.Analysts have suggested that many of the Polycrisis symptoms have been at least partially triggered by negative externalities,that is,costs arising from economic activity that are not covered by market prices and thus not internalized in national and international decision making,leading to suboptimal decisions on climate action,energy and food security,global financial stability,among others.Externalities have generally been framed as negative.Positive externalities,that is,societal benefits that indirectly arise from activities and transactions have less often been considered.International policy debate on disaster risk reduction(DRR)and climate change adaptation(CCA)over the last years,as stipulated by international compacts in 2015(the Sendai Framework,the SDGs,and the Paris Agreement),has built on positive externality discussion,albeit not explicitly so.Disaster risk reduction and CCA analysts have emphasized the need for orienting risk management investments towards interventions that generate so-called multiple or triple resilience dividends.This means extending the focus in decision making from avoiding and reducing impacts and risks to also considering development(co-)benefits arising irrespective of disaster event occurrence.In this context,the“Triple Dividend of Resilience”(TDR)concept and framework has suggested that in addition to risk reduction benefits(dividend 1),dividends would also arise from benefits associated with unlocked development(dividend 2)as well as from co-benefits(dividend 3),for example,from investments into disaster-safe and energy efficient housing.Yet,despite the increasing burdens imposed by systemic disaster and climate risks and wide-spread recognition of this concept over a decade as well as solid evidence regarding the benefits of reducing risk,it has remained difficult to motivate sustained investment across scales into disaster and climate risk reduction.We argue that this systemic underinvestment is,at least partially,due to a lack of conceptual clarity of the TDR with regard to the framing around the dividend 2,a lack of awareness and solid evidence on the positive externalities,as well as interrelationships between resilience dividends in space and time.Based on a snowballing review of the limited literature on the TDR as well as an examination of empirical and model-based evidence,we present the state of the art on the TDR framework.We examine the various dividends in terms of epistemological and methodological contributions building on empirical and modeling methods for supporting decision making as well as evidence for decision making across scales from local to global.Overall,we suggest that there indeed can be positive externalities and solid co-benefits from disaster and climate risk reduction.Systemic risk research and practice coupled with resilience dividend reasoning may thus help to better identify those dividends for improved decision making on disaster and climate risk(reduction).We further show how analysts and decision makers may better consider those various resilience dividends beyond the reduction of losses as well as assess dependencies in risk and benefits’creation across micro and macro scales.As we suggest,enhanced methods and better awareness for potential externalities may enable more comprehensive consideration of DRR and CCA interventions with benefits arising at various scales.This may eventually also lead to enhanced disaster risk and climate risk governance,which is key for tackling relevant risk challenges in a polycrisis context.展开更多
The concept of systemic resilience,as it is understood in the context of climate change adaptation addressing systemic risks and polycrisis,is an inherently normative notion that carries ethical weight.To account for ...The concept of systemic resilience,as it is understood in the context of climate change adaptation addressing systemic risks and polycrisis,is an inherently normative notion that carries ethical weight.To account for these implications,systemic resilience needs to be supplemented with ethical reflections on a system’s function,why it should be made resilient,and who the resilience serves.Crucially,considerations surrounding various forms of justice,such as participatory,procedural,distributive,and historical,need to be accounted for when making decisions about a community’s resilience in the face of increasing climate hazards.Resilience in the context of systemic risks and climate adaptation currently does not account for its ethical implications.This investigation builds on complexity science research and specifically the expanded concept of systemic resilience.In this article,the concept of systemic resilience is applied to the local level,highlighting its ethical underpinnings in the process.Specifically,a case-study explores the application of the ethically informed version of systemic climate resilience,exploring how the Rhine-Erft catchment in Germany could be assessed on this basis.展开更多
The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritiz...The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritize the water cycle alongside reducing carbon emissions.The authors highlight how human activities-agriculture,urbanization,and industrialization-have degraded 75%of the earth’s land,severely disrupting natural water systems.This degradation diminishes the planet’s capacity to regulate temperature through water vapor,cloud formation,and the hydrological cycle,further accelerating climate instability.展开更多
Understanding and strengthening community-level resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters is critical for the management of adverse impacts of such events and the growth of community well-being.A key gap in achie...Understanding and strengthening community-level resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters is critical for the management of adverse impacts of such events and the growth of community well-being.A key gap in achieving this is limited standardized and validated disaster resilience measurement frameworks that operate at local levels and are universally applicable.The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities(FRMC)is a foremost tool for community flood resilience assessment.It follows a structured approach to comprehensively assess community flood resilience across five classes of capacities(capitals)to support strategic investment in resilience strengthening initiatives.The FRMC is a further development of an earlier version(the FRMT,the Flood Resilience Measurement Tool).The FRMT has been developed and applied between 2015 and 2017 in 118 flood prone communities across nine countries.It has been validated in terms of content and face validity as well as in terms of reliability.To reduce redundancy and survey eff ort,the FRMC holds a lesser number of indicators(44 versus 88)and has now been applied in over 320 communities across 20 countries.We examine the validation for the revised resilience construct and the new community applications and present a comprehensive overview of the statistical and user validation process and outcomes in both practical and scientific terms.The results confirm the validity,reliability as well as usefulness of the FRMC framework and tool.Furthermore,our approach and results provide insights for other resilience measurement approaches and their validation eff orts.We also present a comprehensive discussion about the dynamic aspects of flood resilience at community level,and the many validation aspects that need to be incorporated both in terms of quantification eff orts as well as usability on the ground.展开更多
The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main fo...The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main focus area is the Arctic-boreal regions and China.The models used in PEEX-MP cover several main components of the Earth’s system,such as the atmosphere,hydrosphere,pedosphere and biosphere,and resolve the physicalchemicalbiological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and resolutions.This paper introduces and discusses PEEX MP multi-scale modelling concept for the Earth system,online integrated,forward/inverse,and socioeconomical modelling,and other approaches with a particular focus on applications in the PEEX geographical domain.The employed high-performance com-puting facilities,capabilities,and PEEX dataflow for modelling results are described.Several virtual research platforms(PEEXView,Virtual Research Environment,Web-based Atlas)for handling PEEX modelling and observational results are introduced.The over-all approach allows us to understand better physical-chemicalbiological processes,Earth’s system interactions and feedbacks and to provide valuable information for assessment studies on evaluating risks,impact,consequences,etc.for population,envir-onment and climate in the PEEX domain.This work was also one of the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich,who passed away on 15 February 2021.Since the finalization took time,the paper was actually submitted in 2023 and we could not argue that the final paper text was agreed with him.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951504,2012CB95590004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41171093)the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAC19B01)
文摘Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
基金This work was supported by the Science and Technology Foundation of GEIGC(101662227)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018 YFB0905000).
文摘In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41671113,No.51761135024,No.41601049,No.41475040China’s National Science&Technology Pillar Program,No.2016YFC0502702
文摘Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security.In this study,based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways(RCPs) in 2011–2040(2020 s),2041–2070(2050 s) and 2071–2100(2080 s),we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020 s,2050 s,and 2080 s,respectively.The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin.Our simulations revealed that:(1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time;(2) in the middle of this century(2050 s),total rapeseed production would increase significantly;(3) the average production potential increase in the 2050 s for the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939,1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively;(4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi,central and eastern Hubei,northern Hunan,central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.
基金funded by the undergraduate student research training program of the Ministry of Education, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos. 41771495, 41830641, and 41988101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program Grant 2019QZKK0208+1 种基金funded by the European Research Council Synergy project “Imbalance-P ” (Grant No. ERC-2013-Sy G-610028)the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation project “CONSTRAIN” (Grant No. 820829)
文摘Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.
基金supported by the GEIGC Science and Technology Project in the framework of“Research on Comprehensive Path Evaluation Methods and Practical Models for the Synergetic Development of Global Energy,Atmospheric Environment and Human Health”(grant No.20210302007).
文摘Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism framework.Based on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)scenario.The results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.The direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.
文摘Petroleum and Natural Gas still represent a considerable share in terms of energy consumption in the current global matrix, so that its exploration/exploitation is present in the market and driving activities in locations of specific complexities, as the ones along unconventional hydrocarbon resources from the Brazilian pre-salt. The daily cost of well drilling under harsh conditions can exceed US $1 million a day, turning any type of downtime or necessary maintenance during the activities to be very costly, moment in which processes optimization starts to be a key factor in costs reduction. Thus, new technologies and methods in terms of automating and optimizing the processes may be of great advantages, having its impact in total related project costs. In this context, the goal of this research is to allow a computation tool supporting achieving a more efficient drilling process, by means of drilling mechanics parameters choosiness aiming rate of penetration (ROP) maximization and mechanic specific energy (MSE) minimization. Conceptually, driven by the pre-operational drilling test curve trends, the proposed system allows it to be performed with less human influences and being updateable automatically, allowing more precision and time reduction by selecting optimum parameters. A Web Operating System (Web OS) was designed and implemented, running in online servers, granting accessibility to it with any device that has a browser and internet connection. It allows processing the drilling parameters supplied and feed into it, issuing outcomes with optimum values in a faster and precise way, allowing reducing operating time.
文摘The global landscape of the twenty-first century is increasingly shaped by an intricate web of interconnected crises.Such a system of crises—the polycrisis—is characterized by mutual amplification of nested and intertwined risks and requires novel approaches to analysis,assessment,and governance.
基金funding received from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement No.101056898(DECIPHER)the Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance。
文摘With multiple risks interacting and shocks proliferating across geographies and sectors,the concept of polycrisis has come to the fore.Polycrisis describes interwoven and overlapping crises that cannot be understood or resolved in isolation.Analysts have suggested that many of the Polycrisis symptoms have been at least partially triggered by negative externalities,that is,costs arising from economic activity that are not covered by market prices and thus not internalized in national and international decision making,leading to suboptimal decisions on climate action,energy and food security,global financial stability,among others.Externalities have generally been framed as negative.Positive externalities,that is,societal benefits that indirectly arise from activities and transactions have less often been considered.International policy debate on disaster risk reduction(DRR)and climate change adaptation(CCA)over the last years,as stipulated by international compacts in 2015(the Sendai Framework,the SDGs,and the Paris Agreement),has built on positive externality discussion,albeit not explicitly so.Disaster risk reduction and CCA analysts have emphasized the need for orienting risk management investments towards interventions that generate so-called multiple or triple resilience dividends.This means extending the focus in decision making from avoiding and reducing impacts and risks to also considering development(co-)benefits arising irrespective of disaster event occurrence.In this context,the“Triple Dividend of Resilience”(TDR)concept and framework has suggested that in addition to risk reduction benefits(dividend 1),dividends would also arise from benefits associated with unlocked development(dividend 2)as well as from co-benefits(dividend 3),for example,from investments into disaster-safe and energy efficient housing.Yet,despite the increasing burdens imposed by systemic disaster and climate risks and wide-spread recognition of this concept over a decade as well as solid evidence regarding the benefits of reducing risk,it has remained difficult to motivate sustained investment across scales into disaster and climate risk reduction.We argue that this systemic underinvestment is,at least partially,due to a lack of conceptual clarity of the TDR with regard to the framing around the dividend 2,a lack of awareness and solid evidence on the positive externalities,as well as interrelationships between resilience dividends in space and time.Based on a snowballing review of the limited literature on the TDR as well as an examination of empirical and model-based evidence,we present the state of the art on the TDR framework.We examine the various dividends in terms of epistemological and methodological contributions building on empirical and modeling methods for supporting decision making as well as evidence for decision making across scales from local to global.Overall,we suggest that there indeed can be positive externalities and solid co-benefits from disaster and climate risk reduction.Systemic risk research and practice coupled with resilience dividend reasoning may thus help to better identify those dividends for improved decision making on disaster and climate risk(reduction).We further show how analysts and decision makers may better consider those various resilience dividends beyond the reduction of losses as well as assess dependencies in risk and benefits’creation across micro and macro scales.As we suggest,enhanced methods and better awareness for potential externalities may enable more comprehensive consideration of DRR and CCA interventions with benefits arising at various scales.This may eventually also lead to enhanced disaster risk and climate risk governance,which is key for tackling relevant risk challenges in a polycrisis context.
基金funded by the European Union(Grant No.101073978).
文摘The concept of systemic resilience,as it is understood in the context of climate change adaptation addressing systemic risks and polycrisis,is an inherently normative notion that carries ethical weight.To account for these implications,systemic resilience needs to be supplemented with ethical reflections on a system’s function,why it should be made resilient,and who the resilience serves.Crucially,considerations surrounding various forms of justice,such as participatory,procedural,distributive,and historical,need to be accounted for when making decisions about a community’s resilience in the face of increasing climate hazards.Resilience in the context of systemic risks and climate adaptation currently does not account for its ethical implications.This investigation builds on complexity science research and specifically the expanded concept of systemic resilience.In this article,the concept of systemic resilience is applied to the local level,highlighting its ethical underpinnings in the process.Specifically,a case-study explores the application of the ethically informed version of systemic climate resilience,exploring how the Rhine-Erft catchment in Germany could be assessed on this basis.
文摘The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritize the water cycle alongside reducing carbon emissions.The authors highlight how human activities-agriculture,urbanization,and industrialization-have degraded 75%of the earth’s land,severely disrupting natural water systems.This degradation diminishes the planet’s capacity to regulate temperature through water vapor,cloud formation,and the hydrological cycle,further accelerating climate instability.
基金funded by the Z Zurich Foundation,Zurich,Switzerland as a contribution to the Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance。
文摘Understanding and strengthening community-level resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters is critical for the management of adverse impacts of such events and the growth of community well-being.A key gap in achieving this is limited standardized and validated disaster resilience measurement frameworks that operate at local levels and are universally applicable.The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities(FRMC)is a foremost tool for community flood resilience assessment.It follows a structured approach to comprehensively assess community flood resilience across five classes of capacities(capitals)to support strategic investment in resilience strengthening initiatives.The FRMC is a further development of an earlier version(the FRMT,the Flood Resilience Measurement Tool).The FRMT has been developed and applied between 2015 and 2017 in 118 flood prone communities across nine countries.It has been validated in terms of content and face validity as well as in terms of reliability.To reduce redundancy and survey eff ort,the FRMC holds a lesser number of indicators(44 versus 88)and has now been applied in over 320 communities across 20 countries.We examine the validation for the revised resilience construct and the new community applications and present a comprehensive overview of the statistical and user validation process and outcomes in both practical and scientific terms.The results confirm the validity,reliability as well as usefulness of the FRMC framework and tool.Furthermore,our approach and results provide insights for other resilience measurement approaches and their validation eff orts.We also present a comprehensive discussion about the dynamic aspects of flood resilience at community level,and the many validation aspects that need to be incorporated both in terms of quantification eff orts as well as usability on the ground.
基金the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich(1936-2021)The financial support was/is provided through multiple projects related to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment(PEEX)programme including Academy of Finland projects-ClimEco(grant#314798/799)+6 种基金ACCC(grant#337549)HEATCOST(grant#334798)European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme projects-iCUPE under ERA-PLANET(grant#689443),INTAROS(grant#727890),EXHAUSTION(grant#820655),CRiceS(grant#101003826),RI-URBANS(grant#101036245)Horizon Europe project FOCI(grant#101056783)Erasmus+Programme projects-ECOIMPACT(grant#561975-EPP-1-2015-1-FI-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP),ClimEd(grant#619285-EPP-1-2020-1-FIEPPKA2-CBHE-JP)The Norwegian Research Council INTPART educational and networking project(322317/H30):URban Sustainability in Action:Multi-disciplinary Approach through Jointly Organized Research schoolsand the EEA project(Contract No.2020TO01000219):Turbulent-resolving urban modelling of air quality and thermal comfort(TURBAN).
文摘The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main focus area is the Arctic-boreal regions and China.The models used in PEEX-MP cover several main components of the Earth’s system,such as the atmosphere,hydrosphere,pedosphere and biosphere,and resolve the physicalchemicalbiological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and resolutions.This paper introduces and discusses PEEX MP multi-scale modelling concept for the Earth system,online integrated,forward/inverse,and socioeconomical modelling,and other approaches with a particular focus on applications in the PEEX geographical domain.The employed high-performance com-puting facilities,capabilities,and PEEX dataflow for modelling results are described.Several virtual research platforms(PEEXView,Virtual Research Environment,Web-based Atlas)for handling PEEX modelling and observational results are introduced.The over-all approach allows us to understand better physical-chemicalbiological processes,Earth’s system interactions and feedbacks and to provide valuable information for assessment studies on evaluating risks,impact,consequences,etc.for population,envir-onment and climate in the PEEX domain.This work was also one of the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich,who passed away on 15 February 2021.Since the finalization took time,the paper was actually submitted in 2023 and we could not argue that the final paper text was agreed with him.
