This study utilized data from an X-band phased array weather radar and ground-based rain gauge observations to conduct a quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)analysis of a heavy rainfall event in Xiong an New Are...This study utilized data from an X-band phased array weather radar and ground-based rain gauge observations to conduct a quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)analysis of a heavy rainfall event in Xiong an New Area from 20:00 on August 21 to 07:00 on August 22,2022.The analysis applied the Z-R relationship method for radar-based precipitation estimation and evaluated the QPE algorithm s performance using scatter density plots and binary classification scores.The results indicated that the QPE algorithm accurately estimates light to moderate rainfall but significantly underestimates heavy rainfall.The study identified disparities in the predictive accuracy of the QPE algorithm across various precipitation intensity ranges,offering essential insights for the further refinement of QPE techniques.展开更多
This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Da...This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Dataset of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the performance of OF-ConvGRU was evaluated against OF and ConvGRU methods.Threat Score(TS)and Bias Score(BIAS)were employed to assess extrapolation accuracy across various echo intensities(20-50 dBz)and weather phenomena.Results demonstrate that OF-ConvGRU significantly enhances prediction accuracy for moderate-intensity echoes(30-40 dBz),effectively combining OF s precise motion estimation with ConvGRU s nonlinear learning capabilities.However,challenges persist in low-intensity(20 dBz)and high-intensity(50 dBz)echo predictions.The study reveals distinct advantages of each method in specific contexts,highlighting the importance of multi-method approaches in operational nowcasting.OF-ConvGRU shows promise in balancing short-term accuracy with long-term stability,particularly for complex weather systems.展开更多
The process of riming significantly impacts the microphysical characteristics of clouds.This study uses aircraft and radar observation data in stratiform clouds with convection embedded that occurred in the central an...The process of riming significantly impacts the microphysical characteristics of clouds.This study uses aircraft and radar observation data in stratiform clouds with convection embedded that occurred in the central and southern regions of North China on 22 May 2017.The microphysical structural characteristics and processes near the embedded convection core and in the stratiform cloud are analyzed comparatively.Particular attention is given to the effect of riming on the microphysical properties near the upper boundary of the melting layer and to the factors influencing riming efficiency.The collaborative observations reveal that the particle size distributions observed near the convection core and in the stratiform region are close,while the particle properties like habit and riming degree are quite different.Above the melting layer,larger plate-like ice particles and supercooled water droplets(D>50μm)are more abundant near the convective core,leading to higher collision efficiencies between ice particles and supercooled water droplets.Larger fluctuation amplitudes of vertical airflow near the convective core also contribute to the increased riming activity and the formation of more heavily rimed particles,such as graupel.Furthermore,in situ measurements from airborne probes also revealed that above the melting layer,the riming process involves two stages:the mass of snow crystals grows as supercooled droplets merge internally without changing size,followed by external freezing that significantly enlarges the crystals.展开更多
As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and uniqueness.Taking the exam...As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and uniqueness.Taking the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme precipitation.Three physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting accuracy.The results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms appear.Possible reasons for this are as follows.The anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is simple.However,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved significantly.Therefore,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is achieved.Overall,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,and provides a reference for the deep fusion of physics and artificial intelligence methods to improve intense rain forecast.展开更多
文摘This study utilized data from an X-band phased array weather radar and ground-based rain gauge observations to conduct a quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)analysis of a heavy rainfall event in Xiong an New Area from 20:00 on August 21 to 07:00 on August 22,2022.The analysis applied the Z-R relationship method for radar-based precipitation estimation and evaluated the QPE algorithm s performance using scatter density plots and binary classification scores.The results indicated that the QPE algorithm accurately estimates light to moderate rainfall but significantly underestimates heavy rainfall.The study identified disparities in the predictive accuracy of the QPE algorithm across various precipitation intensity ranges,offering essential insights for the further refinement of QPE techniques.
基金Scientific Research and Development Project of Hebei Meteorological Bureau(23ky08).
文摘This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Dataset of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the performance of OF-ConvGRU was evaluated against OF and ConvGRU methods.Threat Score(TS)and Bias Score(BIAS)were employed to assess extrapolation accuracy across various echo intensities(20-50 dBz)and weather phenomena.Results demonstrate that OF-ConvGRU significantly enhances prediction accuracy for moderate-intensity echoes(30-40 dBz),effectively combining OF s precise motion estimation with ConvGRU s nonlinear learning capabilities.However,challenges persist in low-intensity(20 dBz)and high-intensity(50 dBz)echo predictions.The study reveals distinct advantages of each method in specific contexts,highlighting the importance of multi-method approaches in operational nowcasting.OF-ConvGRU shows promise in balancing short-term accuracy with long-term stability,particularly for complex weather systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42025501)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(Grant No.D2024304015)+4 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,including Grant No.020714380217the Cemac“GeoX”Interdisciplinary Program(Grant No.020714380210)the Open Grants of the Key Laboratory of Radar Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.2023LRM-B05)the Hebei Meteorological Service Scientific Research and Development Project(Grant No.23ky08)the Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2023LASW-A01)。
文摘The process of riming significantly impacts the microphysical characteristics of clouds.This study uses aircraft and radar observation data in stratiform clouds with convection embedded that occurred in the central and southern regions of North China on 22 May 2017.The microphysical structural characteristics and processes near the embedded convection core and in the stratiform cloud are analyzed comparatively.Particular attention is given to the effect of riming on the microphysical properties near the upper boundary of the melting layer and to the factors influencing riming efficiency.The collaborative observations reveal that the particle size distributions observed near the convection core and in the stratiform region are close,while the particle properties like habit and riming degree are quite different.Above the melting layer,larger plate-like ice particles and supercooled water droplets(D>50μm)are more abundant near the convective core,leading to higher collision efficiencies between ice particles and supercooled water droplets.Larger fluctuation amplitudes of vertical airflow near the convective core also contribute to the increased riming activity and the formation of more heavily rimed particles,such as graupel.Furthermore,in situ measurements from airborne probes also revealed that above the melting layer,the riming process involves two stages:the mass of snow crystals grows as supercooled droplets merge internally without changing size,followed by external freezing that significantly enlarges the crystals.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Project(Grant No.2021YFC3000903)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275013,42030611,42075002)+2 种基金the CMA Innovation Foundation(Grant No.CXFZ2023J001)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2023LASW-B05)the Key Foundation of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2022C03150)。
文摘As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and uniqueness.Taking the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme precipitation.Three physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting accuracy.The results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms appear.Possible reasons for this are as follows.The anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is simple.However,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved significantly.Therefore,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is achieved.Overall,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,and provides a reference for the deep fusion of physics and artificial intelligence methods to improve intense rain forecast.
