In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the pos...In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.展开更多
Glacier response patterns at the catchment scale are highly heterogeneous and defined by a complex interplay of various dynamics and surface factors.Previous studies have explained heterogeneous responses in qualitati...Glacier response patterns at the catchment scale are highly heterogeneous and defined by a complex interplay of various dynamics and surface factors.Previous studies have explained heterogeneous responses in qualitative ways but quantitative assessment is lacking yet where an intrazone homogeneous climate assumption can be valid.Hence,in the current study,the reason for heterogeneous mass balance has been explained in quantitative methods using a multiple linear regression model in the Sikkim Himalayan region.At first,the topographical parameters are selected from previously published studies,then the most significant topographical and geomorphological parameters are selected with backward stepwise subset selection methods.Finally,the contributions of selected parameters are calculated by least square methods.The results show that,the magnitude of mass balance lies between-0.003±0.24 to-1.029±0.24 m.w.e.a^(-1) between 2000 and 2020 in the Sikkim Himalaya region.Also,the study shows that,out of the terminus type of the glacier,glacier area,debris cover,ice-mixed debris,slope,aspect,mean elevation,and snout elevation of the glaciers,only the terminus type and mean elevation of the glacier are significantly altering the glacier mass balance in the Sikkim Himalayan region.Mathematically,the mass loss is approximately 0.40 m.w.e.a^(-1) higher in the lake-terminating glaciers compared to the land-terminating glaciers in the same elevation zone.On the other hand,a thousand meters mean elevation drop is associated with 0.179 m.w.e.a-1of mass loss despite the terminus type of the glaciers.In the current study,the model using the terminus type of the glaciers and the mean elevation of the glaciers explains 76% of fluctuation of mass balance in the Sikkim Himalayan region.展开更多
The moment magnitude(MW)7.8 earthquake occurred along the Mentawai seismic region of Sunda Trench on 25 October 2010,which is classified as the tsunami earthquake.The GPS inversion results under the assumption of simp...The moment magnitude(MW)7.8 earthquake occurred along the Mentawai seismic region of Sunda Trench on 25 October 2010,which is classified as the tsunami earthquake.The GPS inversion results under the assumption of simple horizontal layered medium show that the slip near the trench is not apparent,which is inconsistent with our understanding of tsunami earthquake.Here,we construct a spherical-earth finite element model(FEM)to investigate the coseismic slip distribution of the 2010 Mentawai earthquake by geometrically combining the subducting plate with a precise subduction interface.The FEM-based coseismic slip distribution shows that there are three major slip patches on the fault interface,one is located on the shallow region and the other two are located on the deeper part of the fault plane.The largest slip patch is located near the trench with the depth less than 10 km,and the maximum amplitude is about 12 m.This significant near-trench slip is consistent with the tsunami earthquake studies.A more realistic domain of FEM is used to change the coseismic slip distribution,thus significantly improving the fitting degree of the data model.These findings suggest that the FEM-derived Green's function is essential to image a more robust and realistic coseismic slip distribution of the large earthquake in the subduction zone.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Public Welfare Scientific Research Project of Chinese Ministry of Land and Resource (No. 200911015-2)
文摘In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.
文摘Glacier response patterns at the catchment scale are highly heterogeneous and defined by a complex interplay of various dynamics and surface factors.Previous studies have explained heterogeneous responses in qualitative ways but quantitative assessment is lacking yet where an intrazone homogeneous climate assumption can be valid.Hence,in the current study,the reason for heterogeneous mass balance has been explained in quantitative methods using a multiple linear regression model in the Sikkim Himalayan region.At first,the topographical parameters are selected from previously published studies,then the most significant topographical and geomorphological parameters are selected with backward stepwise subset selection methods.Finally,the contributions of selected parameters are calculated by least square methods.The results show that,the magnitude of mass balance lies between-0.003±0.24 to-1.029±0.24 m.w.e.a^(-1) between 2000 and 2020 in the Sikkim Himalaya region.Also,the study shows that,out of the terminus type of the glacier,glacier area,debris cover,ice-mixed debris,slope,aspect,mean elevation,and snout elevation of the glaciers,only the terminus type and mean elevation of the glacier are significantly altering the glacier mass balance in the Sikkim Himalayan region.Mathematically,the mass loss is approximately 0.40 m.w.e.a^(-1) higher in the lake-terminating glaciers compared to the land-terminating glaciers in the same elevation zone.On the other hand,a thousand meters mean elevation drop is associated with 0.179 m.w.e.a-1of mass loss despite the terminus type of the glaciers.In the current study,the model using the terminus type of the glaciers and the mean elevation of the glaciers explains 76% of fluctuation of mass balance in the Sikkim Himalayan region.
文摘The moment magnitude(MW)7.8 earthquake occurred along the Mentawai seismic region of Sunda Trench on 25 October 2010,which is classified as the tsunami earthquake.The GPS inversion results under the assumption of simple horizontal layered medium show that the slip near the trench is not apparent,which is inconsistent with our understanding of tsunami earthquake.Here,we construct a spherical-earth finite element model(FEM)to investigate the coseismic slip distribution of the 2010 Mentawai earthquake by geometrically combining the subducting plate with a precise subduction interface.The FEM-based coseismic slip distribution shows that there are three major slip patches on the fault interface,one is located on the shallow region and the other two are located on the deeper part of the fault plane.The largest slip patch is located near the trench with the depth less than 10 km,and the maximum amplitude is about 12 m.This significant near-trench slip is consistent with the tsunami earthquake studies.A more realistic domain of FEM is used to change the coseismic slip distribution,thus significantly improving the fitting degree of the data model.These findings suggest that the FEM-derived Green's function is essential to image a more robust and realistic coseismic slip distribution of the large earthquake in the subduction zone.
