Forest ecosystems can be characterized by a set of catenas arranged along the slope in mountainous areas as these affect microhabitat features,which in turn influence soil properties.Heretofore,few studies have examin...Forest ecosystems can be characterized by a set of catenas arranged along the slope in mountainous areas as these affect microhabitat features,which in turn influence soil properties.Heretofore,few studies have examined how topographic variables affect soil properties and quality in semiarid regions.This study aimed to provide important insights into how catena position and shape influence soil properties,soil quality,and their interrelationships in a semiarid protected oak forest in western Iran.Basic soil properties were measured in the laboratory.In addition,the soil quality index(SQI)was calculated at different topographic positions along both convex(Λ-shaped)and concave(V-shaped)catenas at two soil depths(0-15 and 15-30 cm).The findings indicated that soil organic carbon and total nitrogen declined in the lower depth in both V-andΛ-shaped catenas and at all catena positions.The lowest porosity was observed in the lower depth at toeslope positions(TS)of both catenas.Substrate-induced respiration(SIR),microbial biomass carbon(MBC),and basal respiration(BR)were higher in the upper depths at TS positions on V-shaped catenas than onΛ-shaped catenas.These biological indices were consistently higher in the upper depths than in the lower depths across all positions of both catenas.SQI had the highest values at TS positions on both catenas and in the upper depths across all positions.Pearson correlations between soil properties indicated that SQI was most strongly and positively correlated with biological properties in both catenas.The nutrient levels,microbial activity,and soil porosity in both catena shapes and at both soil depths displayed a relatively downward trend with increasing elevation from toeslope to summit positions.The results showed that catena topographic sequence shape and position affected most of the soil properties,providing evidence of the important role of topography in creating pedodiversity in oak forest ecosystems.展开更多
Fire disturbances are increasing under global climate change and ecological transformations of forests are occurring.Specifically,shifts from productive closed-canopy feather moss forests to low-productivity open-cano...Fire disturbances are increasing under global climate change and ecological transformations of forests are occurring.Specifically,shifts from productive closed-canopy feather moss forests to low-productivity open-canopy lichen(Cladonia spp.)woodlands have been observed in boreal forests of eastern Canada.It has been hypothesized that high severity of fires would be the cause of this change,but this is difficult to validate a posteriori on mature forest stands.Because charcoal properties are affected by fire severity,we have put forward the hypothesis that the amount and physicochemical properties of charcoal(C,N,H,O,ash,surface area)would be different and indicative of a greater fire severity for open-canopy forests compared to closed canopy ones.Our hypothesis was partly validated in that the amount of charcoal found on the ground of closed-canopy forests was greater than that of open-canopy forests.However,the physicochemical properties were not different,albeit a greater variability of charcoal properties for open canopy stands.These results do not allow us to fully validate or reject our hypothesis on the role of fire severity in the shift between open and closed canopy stands.However,they suggest that the variability in fire conditions as well as the amounts of charcoal produced are different between the two ecosystem types.Furthermore,considering the role that biochar may play in improving soil conditions and promoting vegetation restoration,our results suggest that charcoal may play a role in maintaining these two stable alternative ecosystem states.展开更多
Foliar resorption is a principal nutrient conservation mechanism in terrestrial vegetation that could be sensitive to ongoing changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen(N)deposition.We quantified N resorption in nort...Foliar resorption is a principal nutrient conservation mechanism in terrestrial vegetation that could be sensitive to ongoing changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen(N)deposition.We quantified N resorption in northern hardwood forests along an elevation gradient of decreasing temperature and increasing soil N availability to evaluate how this critical nutrient cycling process can be expected to respond to global and regional environmental changes.Foliar N resorption proficiency(NRP)increased significantly at lower elevations for both sugar maple and American beech,the dominant species in these forests.Foliar N resorption efficiency(NRE)also decreased with increasing elevation,but only in one year.Both species exhibited strong negative relationships between NRP and soil N availability.Thus,we anticipate that with climate warming and decreasing N inputs,northern hardwood forests can be expected to exhibit stronger N conservation via foliar resorption.Both species also exhibited strong correlations between resorption efficiency of N and C,but resorption of both elements was much greater for beech than sugar maple,suggesting contrasting mechanisms of nutrient conservation between these two widespread species.展开更多
Management of forest lands considering multi-functional approaches is the basis to sustain or enhance the provi-sion of specific benefits,while minimizing negative impacts to the environment.Defining a desired managem...Management of forest lands considering multi-functional approaches is the basis to sustain or enhance the provi-sion of specific benefits,while minimizing negative impacts to the environment.Defining a desired management itinerary to a forest depends on a variety of factors,including the forest type,its ecological characteristics,and the social and economic needs of local communities.A strategic assessment of the forest use suitability(FUS)(namely productive,protective,conservation-oriented,social and multi-functional)at regional level,based on the provision of forest ecosystem services and trade-offs between FUS alternatives,can be used to develop management strategies that are tailored to the specific needs and conditions of the forest.The present study assesses the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and employs a decision model to identify the FUS that sup-ports the most present and productive ecosystem services in each stand in Catalonia.For this purpose,we apply the latest version of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support(EMDS)system,a spatially oriented decision support system that provides accurate results for multi-criteria management.We evaluate 32 metrics and 12 as-sociated ecosystem services indicators to represent the spatial reality of the region.According to the results,the dominant primary use suitability is social,followed by protective and productive.Nevertheless,final assignment of uses is not straightforward and requires an exhaustive analysis of trade-offs between all alternative options,in many cases identifying flexible outcomes,and increasing the representativeness of multi-functional use.The assignment of forest use suitability aims to significantly improve the definition of the most adequate management strategy to be applied.展开更多
The paper discusses methods to compensate for the costs incurred in the supply of forest ecological services （FES）, i.e. government dominated and market-based instruments as well as progress made so far in China. Fa...The paper discusses methods to compensate for the costs incurred in the supply of forest ecological services （FES）, i.e. government dominated and market-based instruments as well as progress made so far in China. Factors which constrain the supply of these services and potential policy improvements are presented.展开更多
Forests worldwide are experiencing increasingly intense biotic disturbances;however,assessing impacts of these disturbances is challenging due to the diverse range of organisms involved and the complex interactions am...Forests worldwide are experiencing increasingly intense biotic disturbances;however,assessing impacts of these disturbances is challenging due to the diverse range of organisms involved and the complex interactions among them.This particularly applies to invasive species,which can greatly alter ecological processes in their invaded territories.Here we focus on the pine wood nematode(PWN,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus),an invasive pathogen that has caused extensive mortality of pines in East Asia and more recently has invaded southern Europe.It is expected to expand its range into continental Europe with heavy impacts possible.Given the unknown dynamics of PWN in continental Europe,we reviewed laboratory and field experiments conducted in Asia and southern Europe to parameterize the main components of PWN biology and host-pathogen interactions in the Biotic Disturbance Engine(BITE),a model designed to implement a variety of forest biotic agents,from fungi to large herbivores.To simulate dynamically changing host availability and conditions,BITE was coupled with the forest landscape model iLand.The potential impacts of introducing PWN were assessed in a Central European forest landscape(40,928ha),likely within PWN’s reach in future decades.A parameter sensitivity analysis indicated a substantial influence of factors related to dispersal,colonization,and vegetation impact,whereas parameters related to population growth manifested a minor effect.Selection of different assumptions about biological processes resulted in differential timing and size of the main mortality wave,eliminating 40%–95%of pine trees within 100 years post-introduction,with a maximum annual carbon loss between 1.3%and 4.2%.PWN-induced tree mortality reduced the Gross Primary Productivity,increased heterotrophic respiration,and generated a distinct legacy sink effect in the recovery period.This assessment has corroborated the ecological plausibility of the simulated dynamics and highlighted the need for new strategies to navigate the substantial uncertainty in the agent’s biology and population dynamics.展开更多
Understanding and quantifying the resilience of forests to disturbances are increasingly important for forest management.Historical fire suppression,logging,and other land uses have increased densities of shade tolera...Understanding and quantifying the resilience of forests to disturbances are increasingly important for forest management.Historical fire suppression,logging,and other land uses have increased densities of shade tolerant trees and fuel buildup in the western United States,which has reduced the resilience of these forests to natural disturbances.One way to mitigate this problem is to use fuel treatments such as stand thinning and prescribed burning.In this study,we investigated changes in forest structure in the Lassen and Plumas National Forests of northern California following a large wildfire.We used longterm field data and aerial photos to examine what management techniques can be effectively used to restore a healthy forest structure and increase the resilience of forests to drought and wildfires.Forest resilience was quantitatively modeled using the forest vegetation simulator and analyzed under varied thinning practices and fuel management scenarios.Results showed that trees below 1,219 m in elevation had the least mortality and gained the most biomass.Trees taller than 45.7 m lost the most biomass.We found that thinning basal area to 16.1 m^(2)·hm^(-2)resulted in the highest resilience score for California mixed conifer forest stands and thinning to 9.2 m^(2)·hm^(-2)resulted in the highest resilience score for Jeffrey pine stands.Structural diversity had a negative relationship with resilience score.Understanding forest structure,forest resilience,and the factors that make trees vulnerable to mortality will allow managers to better plan fuel treatments for these forests.展开更多
Survival analysis is composed of a group of analytical approaches that can be used to predict the occurrence of harvest activities,which provides insightful information about the dynamics of natural resources utilizat...Survival analysis is composed of a group of analytical approaches that can be used to predict the occurrence of harvest activities,which provides insightful information about the dynamics of natural resources utilization in a region.Recently,random survival forest(RSF)has been proposed in survival analysis to capture the complex relationships among variables.The main objective of this study was to employ the RSF algorithm to examine the temporal evolution of tree harvest,accounting for stand and environmental variables.Specifically,the predictability of the RSF model was compared with the Cox proportional hazard(Cox)model,a popular model in survival analysis.Important variables in explaining the variation of harvest time were identified.Data collected by the USDA Forest Service,Forest Inventory and Analysis(FIA)program from permanent plots in the southern Appalachian region were utilized in the analysis.Results showed that the RSF model consistently outperformed the Cox model based on prediction accuracy.Among 14 variables examined,ownership,forest type,elevation,state,and slope emerged as most important.Utilizing only these five variables in a reduced model produced satisfactory prediction accuracy compared to the full model(i.e.,the models with all variables included).The findings of this work provide insights for forest managers and policy makers to utilize survival analysis methods in understanding harvest activities at the regional scale.展开更多
Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmen...Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmental gradients.Particularly,the relative importance(RIV)of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear.To fill these gaps,we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants,annual herbs,perennial herbs,and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China.The SR patterns of herbaceous plants,especially perennial herbs,and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content;however,the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients.The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality.The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments.An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition,SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation(MAP).In mesic regions(>238.5 mm),herbs were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients.In arid regions(<238.5 mm),woody plants were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by climate variables,especially precipitation.Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity,as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.展开更多
Intraspecific genetic variance and gene flow can support the adaptive evolution of species challenged by climate shifts or novel environmental conditions.Less well understood is how genome organization and gene flow i...Intraspecific genetic variance and gene flow can support the adaptive evolution of species challenged by climate shifts or novel environmental conditions.Less well understood is how genome organization and gene flow interact in closely related species during evolutionary divergence and differentiation.Here we conducted genomic footprint analyses to determine how three species of Pterocarya(P.stenoptera,P.hupehensis,and P.macroptera),which are sympatric but occupy different elevational niches,adapted to the heterogeneous environment of the Qinling-Daba Mountains,China.We identified candidate genes for environmental adaptation(i.e.,PIEZO1,WRKY39,VDAC3,CBL1,and RAF),and also identified regions of gene introgression between P.hupehensis and P.macroptera that show lower genetic load and higher genetic diversity than the rest of their genomes.The same introgressed regions are notably situated in areas of minimal genetic divergence yet they are characterized by elevated recombination rates.We also identified candidate genes within these introgressed regions related to environmental adaptation(TPLC2,CYCH;1,LUH,bHLH112,GLX1,TLP-3,and ABC1).Our findings have thus clarified the important role of gene flow in ecological adaptation and revealed genomic signatures of past introgression.Together,these findings provide a stronger theoretical basis for understanding the ecological adaptation and conservation of Quaternary relict woody plants in East Asia.展开更多
Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change.We investigated leaf budbreak timing,susceptibility to cold damage,le...Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change.We investigated leaf budbreak timing,susceptibility to cold damage,leaf dynamics,and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States.Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years,with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’local climates.Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak,while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod.Notably,budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days(ADDs).Short-rotation-coppice(SRC)management delayed budbreak by five to ten days.Cold damage was significant in 2023,particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P.maximowiczii parentage.Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood(Populus deltoides×Populus deltoides(D×D))genotypes,despite most having southeastern US parentages.Leaf dynamics,including leaf duration and leaf area index(LAI),varied across taxa and sites,with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI.Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events,with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage.Our findings highlight the importance of genetics,environment,and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production.These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding,conservation,and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.展开更多
Hydraulic vulnerability,the sensitivity of xylem embolism to water stress,is a major determinant trait associated with conifer mortality.This study investigated branch P50(50%hydraulic conductivity loss)of adult and j...Hydraulic vulnerability,the sensitivity of xylem embolism to water stress,is a major determinant trait associated with conifer mortality.This study investigated branch P50(50%hydraulic conductivity loss)of adult and juvenile ponderosa pines across multiple locations in the southwestern United States(SWUS),and examined relationships between P50 and climatic conditions,soil properties and forest management.Juvenile ponderosa pines had significantly more negative P50 values than adults on average.Both age groups exhibited a latitudinal pattern in P50 associated with regional climate conditions.Across the SWUS,juvenile P50 was positively correlated with growing season precipitation and temperature,and negatively correlated with soil pH and clay content.In some cases,significant differences in juvenile P50 between SWUS locations were associated with growing season moisture deficit,whereas other significant differences were less attributable to climate and may attest to potential genetic variation between populations.Climate variation,soil properties and population-level acclimation and/or adaptation may all influence the hydraulic vulnerability of juvenile ponderosa pines in the SWUS,promoting differences in stress tolerance of ponderosa pine forests across the region.展开更多
A growing recognition that uneven-aged silviculture can offer multiple benefits to forested ecosystems has encouraged some landowners in the southern region of the United States to convert even-aged pine stands into m...A growing recognition that uneven-aged silviculture can offer multiple benefits to forested ecosystems has encouraged some landowners in the southern region of the United States to convert even-aged pine stands into multi-aged stands.For shade-intolerant pines of the southern United States,however,few studies have examined residual tree growth following silvicultural treatments that convert even-aged stands to multi-aged stands.Understanding the growth response of residual trees to different kinds of stand conversion treatments is critical to stand development and sustainability,as trees must be recruited into larger size classes during the conversion process to develop the desired stand structure and maintain productivity.In this study,we utilized a replicated,long-term silvicultural experimental trial in the southeastern United States to assess the effects of two cutting treatments(dispersed"single tree cutting"that created small canopy gaps and the"patch cutting"that created 0.1-0.8ha patch openings)and an uncut control on the 14-year growth(~cutting cycle length)of residual longleaf pine(Pinus palustris Mill.)trees.We found that tree growth,measured as mean basal area increment(BAI),was significantly higher following patch cutting(mean BAI of 16.97cm^(2))compared to both the single tree cutting(13.33cm^(2))and the uncut control(12.68cm^(2))(p<0.001).In patch cutting,the size of the patch opening,the location of trees surrounding the patch opening,and the position of the tree canopy all had a significant effect on BAI.Trees surrounding patch openings of 0.4ha exhibited greater growth,with a mean BAI of 19.24cm^(2),compared to those surrounding 0.1 and 0.8ha patch openings,which had mean BAI values of 15.89 and 15.71cm^(2),respectively(p<0.001).The position of a tree around the patch opening also influenced tree growth,as residual trees more to the North,South,and East sides exhibited significantly higher mean BAI than trees on the West side of the patch openings(p<0.001).However,distance from the patch opening border did not significantly affect the mean BAI(p=0.522).In all treatments,dominant and co-dominant trees exhibited higher BAI than intermediate and overtopped trees,indicating that tree canopy position significantly influenced tree growth(p<0.001).Understanding how residual trees grow after these silvicultural treatments is crucial for thoroughly assessing their efficacy with longleaf pine.This study's findings will enhance our understanding of stand dynamics during stand conversion and help land managers anticipate the growth of longleaf pine into larger size categories after single tree and patch cuttings.展开更多
The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There i...The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.展开更多
Background: Soil organic carbon(SOC) is a large reservoir of terrestrial carbon(C); it consists of different fractions of varying complexity and stability. Partitioning SOC into different pools of decomposability help...Background: Soil organic carbon(SOC) is a large reservoir of terrestrial carbon(C); it consists of different fractions of varying complexity and stability. Partitioning SOC into different pools of decomposability help better predict the trend of changes in SOC dynamics under climate change. Information on how physical fractions and chemical structures of SOC are related to climate and vegetation types is essential for spatial model ing of SOC processes and responses to global change factors.Method: Soil samples were col ected from multiple representative forest sites of three contrasting climatic zones(i.e. cool temperate, warm temperate, and subtropical) in eastern China. Measurements were made on SOC contents and physical fractions of the 0–20 cm soil layer, and the chemical composition of SOC of the 0–5 cm soil layer, along with measurements and compilation of the basic site and forest stand variables. The long-term effects of temperature, litter inputs, soil characteristics and vegetation type on the SOC contents and factions were examined by means of "space for time substitution" approach and statistical analysis.Result: Mean annual temperature(MAT) varied from 2.1 °C at the cool temperate sites to 20.8 °C at the subtropical sites. Total SOC of the 0–20 cm soil layer decreased with increasing MAT, ranging from 89.2 g·kg^(-1) in cool temperate forests to 57.7 g·kg^(-1) in subtropical forests, at an average rate of 1.87% reduction in SOC with a 1 °C increase in MAT.With increasing MAT, the proportions of aromatic C and phenolic C displayed a tendency of decreases, whereas the proportion of alkyl C and A/O-A value(the ratio of alkyl C to the sum of O-alkyl C and acetal C) displayed a tendency of increases. Overall, there were no significant changes with MAT and forest type in either the physical fractions or the chemical composition. Based on the relationship between the SOC content and MAT, we estimate that SOC in the top 20 soil layer of forests potentially contribute 6.58–26.3 Pg C globally to the atmosphere if global MAT increases by 1 °C–4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, with nearly half of which(cf. 2.87–11.5 Pg C) occurring in the 0–5 cm mineral soils.Conclusion: Forest topsoil SOC content decreased and became chemical y more recalcitrant with increasing MAT,without apparent changes in the physical fractions of SOC.展开更多
Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the developmen...This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where models play a core role： model-assisted, model-based, and hybrid estimation. The first two are well known, whereas the third has only recently been introduced in forest surveys. Hybrid inference mixes design- based and model-based inference, since it relies on a probability sample of auxiliary data and a model predicting the target variable from the auxiliary data.We review studies on large-area forest surveys based on model-assisted, model- based, and hybrid estimation, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. We conclude that no general recommendations can be made about whether model-assisted, model-based, or hybrid estimation should be preferred. The choice depends on the objective of the survey and the possibilities to acquire appropriate field and remotely sensed data. We also conclude that modelling approaches can only be successfully applied for estimating target variables such as growing stock volume or biomass, which are adequately related to commonly available remotely sensed data, and thus purely field based surveys remain important for several important forest parameters.展开更多
Forest fuel investigations in central and southern Siberian taiga of Scots pine forest stands dominated by lichen and feather moss ground vegetation cover revealed that total aboveground biomass varied from 13.1 to 21...Forest fuel investigations in central and southern Siberian taiga of Scots pine forest stands dominated by lichen and feather moss ground vegetation cover revealed that total aboveground biomass varied from 13.1 to 21.0 kg/m 2.Stand biomass was higher in plots in the southern taiga,while ground fuel loads were higher in the central taiga.We developed equations for fuel biomass(both aerial and ground)that could be applicable to similar pine forest sites of Central Siberia.Fuel loading variability found among plots is related to the impact and recovery time since the last wildfi re and the mosaic distribution of living vegetation.Fuel consumption due to surface fi res of low to high-intensities ranged from 0.95 to 3.08 kg/m 2,that is,18–74%from prefi re values.The total amount of fuels available to burn in case of fi re was up to 4.5–6.5 kg/m 2.Moisture content of fuels(litter,lichen,feather moss)was related to weather conditions characterized by the Russian Fire Danger Index(PV-1)and FWI code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.The data obtained provide a strong foundation for understanding and modeling fi re behavior,emissions,and fi re eff ects on ecosystem processes and carbon stocks and could be used to improve existing global and regional models that incorporate biomass and fuel characteristics.展开更多
文摘Forest ecosystems can be characterized by a set of catenas arranged along the slope in mountainous areas as these affect microhabitat features,which in turn influence soil properties.Heretofore,few studies have examined how topographic variables affect soil properties and quality in semiarid regions.This study aimed to provide important insights into how catena position and shape influence soil properties,soil quality,and their interrelationships in a semiarid protected oak forest in western Iran.Basic soil properties were measured in the laboratory.In addition,the soil quality index(SQI)was calculated at different topographic positions along both convex(Λ-shaped)and concave(V-shaped)catenas at two soil depths(0-15 and 15-30 cm).The findings indicated that soil organic carbon and total nitrogen declined in the lower depth in both V-andΛ-shaped catenas and at all catena positions.The lowest porosity was observed in the lower depth at toeslope positions(TS)of both catenas.Substrate-induced respiration(SIR),microbial biomass carbon(MBC),and basal respiration(BR)were higher in the upper depths at TS positions on V-shaped catenas than onΛ-shaped catenas.These biological indices were consistently higher in the upper depths than in the lower depths across all positions of both catenas.SQI had the highest values at TS positions on both catenas and in the upper depths across all positions.Pearson correlations between soil properties indicated that SQI was most strongly and positively correlated with biological properties in both catenas.The nutrient levels,microbial activity,and soil porosity in both catena shapes and at both soil depths displayed a relatively downward trend with increasing elevation from toeslope to summit positions.The results showed that catena topographic sequence shape and position affected most of the soil properties,providing evidence of the important role of topography in creating pedodiversity in oak forest ecosystems.
基金supported by the MITACS Accelerate grant with Greenfirst,industry partner in La Sarre,QC,Canada.
文摘Fire disturbances are increasing under global climate change and ecological transformations of forests are occurring.Specifically,shifts from productive closed-canopy feather moss forests to low-productivity open-canopy lichen(Cladonia spp.)woodlands have been observed in boreal forests of eastern Canada.It has been hypothesized that high severity of fires would be the cause of this change,but this is difficult to validate a posteriori on mature forest stands.Because charcoal properties are affected by fire severity,we have put forward the hypothesis that the amount and physicochemical properties of charcoal(C,N,H,O,ash,surface area)would be different and indicative of a greater fire severity for open-canopy forests compared to closed canopy ones.Our hypothesis was partly validated in that the amount of charcoal found on the ground of closed-canopy forests was greater than that of open-canopy forests.However,the physicochemical properties were not different,albeit a greater variability of charcoal properties for open canopy stands.These results do not allow us to fully validate or reject our hypothesis on the role of fire severity in the shift between open and closed canopy stands.However,they suggest that the variability in fire conditions as well as the amounts of charcoal produced are different between the two ecosystem types.Furthermore,considering the role that biochar may play in improving soil conditions and promoting vegetation restoration,our results suggest that charcoal may play a role in maintaining these two stable alternative ecosystem states.
基金National Science Foundation supported this research through the Long Term Ecological Research(LTER)Grant to Hubbard Brook(NSF DEB1114804,1637685,and 2224545)by the project grant(NSF DEB,2020397).
文摘Foliar resorption is a principal nutrient conservation mechanism in terrestrial vegetation that could be sensitive to ongoing changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen(N)deposition.We quantified N resorption in northern hardwood forests along an elevation gradient of decreasing temperature and increasing soil N availability to evaluate how this critical nutrient cycling process can be expected to respond to global and regional environmental changes.Foliar N resorption proficiency(NRP)increased significantly at lower elevations for both sugar maple and American beech,the dominant species in these forests.Foliar N resorption efficiency(NRE)also decreased with increasing elevation,but only in one year.Both species exhibited strong negative relationships between NRP and soil N availability.Thus,we anticipate that with climate warming and decreasing N inputs,northern hardwood forests can be expected to exhibit stronger N conservation via foliar resorption.Both species also exhibited strong correlations between resorption efficiency of N and C,but resorption of both elements was much greater for beech than sugar maple,suggesting contrasting mechanisms of nutrient conservation between these two widespread species.
基金the Catalan Government Predoctoral Schol-arship(AGAUR-FSE 2020 FI_B200147)SuFoRun Marie Sklodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange(RISE)Program(Grant No.691149)the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation(PID2020-120355RB-IOO).
文摘Management of forest lands considering multi-functional approaches is the basis to sustain or enhance the provi-sion of specific benefits,while minimizing negative impacts to the environment.Defining a desired management itinerary to a forest depends on a variety of factors,including the forest type,its ecological characteristics,and the social and economic needs of local communities.A strategic assessment of the forest use suitability(FUS)(namely productive,protective,conservation-oriented,social and multi-functional)at regional level,based on the provision of forest ecosystem services and trade-offs between FUS alternatives,can be used to develop management strategies that are tailored to the specific needs and conditions of the forest.The present study assesses the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and employs a decision model to identify the FUS that sup-ports the most present and productive ecosystem services in each stand in Catalonia.For this purpose,we apply the latest version of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support(EMDS)system,a spatially oriented decision support system that provides accurate results for multi-criteria management.We evaluate 32 metrics and 12 as-sociated ecosystem services indicators to represent the spatial reality of the region.According to the results,the dominant primary use suitability is social,followed by protective and productive.Nevertheless,final assignment of uses is not straightforward and requires an exhaustive analysis of trade-offs between all alternative options,in many cases identifying flexible outcomes,and increasing the representativeness of multi-functional use.The assignment of forest use suitability aims to significantly improve the definition of the most adequate management strategy to be applied.
文摘The paper discusses methods to compensate for the costs incurred in the supply of forest ecological services （FES）, i.e. government dominated and market-based instruments as well as progress made so far in China. Factors which constrain the supply of these services and potential policy improvements are presented.
基金supported by the project“EVA4.0”,No.CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE of the Czech Republicthe H2020 project RESONATE under grant agreement No.101000574.
文摘Forests worldwide are experiencing increasingly intense biotic disturbances;however,assessing impacts of these disturbances is challenging due to the diverse range of organisms involved and the complex interactions among them.This particularly applies to invasive species,which can greatly alter ecological processes in their invaded territories.Here we focus on the pine wood nematode(PWN,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus),an invasive pathogen that has caused extensive mortality of pines in East Asia and more recently has invaded southern Europe.It is expected to expand its range into continental Europe with heavy impacts possible.Given the unknown dynamics of PWN in continental Europe,we reviewed laboratory and field experiments conducted in Asia and southern Europe to parameterize the main components of PWN biology and host-pathogen interactions in the Biotic Disturbance Engine(BITE),a model designed to implement a variety of forest biotic agents,from fungi to large herbivores.To simulate dynamically changing host availability and conditions,BITE was coupled with the forest landscape model iLand.The potential impacts of introducing PWN were assessed in a Central European forest landscape(40,928ha),likely within PWN’s reach in future decades.A parameter sensitivity analysis indicated a substantial influence of factors related to dispersal,colonization,and vegetation impact,whereas parameters related to population growth manifested a minor effect.Selection of different assumptions about biological processes resulted in differential timing and size of the main mortality wave,eliminating 40%–95%of pine trees within 100 years post-introduction,with a maximum annual carbon loss between 1.3%and 4.2%.PWN-induced tree mortality reduced the Gross Primary Productivity,increased heterotrophic respiration,and generated a distinct legacy sink effect in the recovery period.This assessment has corroborated the ecological plausibility of the simulated dynamics and highlighted the need for new strategies to navigate the substantial uncertainty in the agent’s biology and population dynamics.
基金supported by joint agreement 19-JV-11272139-025 between Pacific Southwest Research StationUSDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station and Texas A&M University-Kingsville
文摘Understanding and quantifying the resilience of forests to disturbances are increasingly important for forest management.Historical fire suppression,logging,and other land uses have increased densities of shade tolerant trees and fuel buildup in the western United States,which has reduced the resilience of these forests to natural disturbances.One way to mitigate this problem is to use fuel treatments such as stand thinning and prescribed burning.In this study,we investigated changes in forest structure in the Lassen and Plumas National Forests of northern California following a large wildfire.We used longterm field data and aerial photos to examine what management techniques can be effectively used to restore a healthy forest structure and increase the resilience of forests to drought and wildfires.Forest resilience was quantitatively modeled using the forest vegetation simulator and analyzed under varied thinning practices and fuel management scenarios.Results showed that trees below 1,219 m in elevation had the least mortality and gained the most biomass.Trees taller than 45.7 m lost the most biomass.We found that thinning basal area to 16.1 m^(2)·hm^(-2)resulted in the highest resilience score for California mixed conifer forest stands and thinning to 9.2 m^(2)·hm^(-2)resulted in the highest resilience score for Jeffrey pine stands.Structural diversity had a negative relationship with resilience score.Understanding forest structure,forest resilience,and the factors that make trees vulnerable to mortality will allow managers to better plan fuel treatments for these forests.
基金Support from the USDA Forest Service(projects#21CR11330145063 and 21CR11330145069)The Nature Conservancy(project#030122-1)is greatly appreciated.
文摘Survival analysis is composed of a group of analytical approaches that can be used to predict the occurrence of harvest activities,which provides insightful information about the dynamics of natural resources utilization in a region.Recently,random survival forest(RSF)has been proposed in survival analysis to capture the complex relationships among variables.The main objective of this study was to employ the RSF algorithm to examine the temporal evolution of tree harvest,accounting for stand and environmental variables.Specifically,the predictability of the RSF model was compared with the Cox proportional hazard(Cox)model,a popular model in survival analysis.Important variables in explaining the variation of harvest time were identified.Data collected by the USDA Forest Service,Forest Inventory and Analysis(FIA)program from permanent plots in the southern Appalachian region were utilized in the analysis.Results showed that the RSF model consistently outperformed the Cox model based on prediction accuracy.Among 14 variables examined,ownership,forest type,elevation,state,and slope emerged as most important.Utilizing only these five variables in a reduced model produced satisfactory prediction accuracy compared to the full model(i.e.,the models with all variables included).The findings of this work provide insights for forest managers and policy makers to utilize survival analysis methods in understanding harvest activities at the regional scale.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(32225032,32001192,32271597)+1 种基金the Innovation Base Project of Gansu Province(2021YFF0703904)the Science and Technology Program of Gansu Province(24JRRA515,22JR5RA525,23JRRA1157).
文摘Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community.However,few studies have examined species richness(SR)of different plant life forms in a community along largescale environmental gradients.Particularly,the relative importance(RIV)of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear.To fill these gaps,we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants,annual herbs,perennial herbs,and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China.The SR patterns of herbaceous plants,especially perennial herbs,and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content;however,the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients.The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality.The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments.An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition,SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation(MAP).In mesic regions(>238.5 mm),herbs were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients.In arid regions(<238.5 mm),woody plants were the dominant species,and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity,which was mediated mainly by climate variables,especially precipitation.Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity,as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32370386,32070372,and 32200295)Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Shaanxi Province(2023-JC-JQ-22)+4 种基金Basic Research Project of Shaanxi Academy of Fundamental Science(22JHZ005)Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program(2024NC-YBXM-064)Science and Technology Program of Shaanxi Academy of Science(2023K-49,2023K-26,and 2019K-06)Shaanxi Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Key Project(SXLK2023-02-20)Qinling Hundred Talents Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science(Y23Z619F17).
文摘Intraspecific genetic variance and gene flow can support the adaptive evolution of species challenged by climate shifts or novel environmental conditions.Less well understood is how genome organization and gene flow interact in closely related species during evolutionary divergence and differentiation.Here we conducted genomic footprint analyses to determine how three species of Pterocarya(P.stenoptera,P.hupehensis,and P.macroptera),which are sympatric but occupy different elevational niches,adapted to the heterogeneous environment of the Qinling-Daba Mountains,China.We identified candidate genes for environmental adaptation(i.e.,PIEZO1,WRKY39,VDAC3,CBL1,and RAF),and also identified regions of gene introgression between P.hupehensis and P.macroptera that show lower genetic load and higher genetic diversity than the rest of their genomes.The same introgressed regions are notably situated in areas of minimal genetic divergence yet they are characterized by elevated recombination rates.We also identified candidate genes within these introgressed regions related to environmental adaptation(TPLC2,CYCH;1,LUH,bHLH112,GLX1,TLP-3,and ABC1).Our findings have thus clarified the important role of gene flow in ecological adaptation and revealed genomic signatures of past introgression.Together,these findings provide a stronger theoretical basis for understanding the ecological adaptation and conservation of Quaternary relict woody plants in East Asia.
基金funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture(USDA-NIFA)through the APPS grant(Advancing Populus Pathways in the Southeast,2018-68005-27636)United States Department of Energy(DOE)through the PoSIES(Populus in the Southeast for Integrated Ecosystem Services,DE-EE0009280)USDA-NIFA McIntire Stennis grant(MISZ-067050).
文摘Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change.We investigated leaf budbreak timing,susceptibility to cold damage,leaf dynamics,and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States.Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years,with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’local climates.Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak,while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod.Notably,budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days(ADDs).Short-rotation-coppice(SRC)management delayed budbreak by five to ten days.Cold damage was significant in 2023,particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P.maximowiczii parentage.Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood(Populus deltoides×Populus deltoides(D×D))genotypes,despite most having southeastern US parentages.Leaf dynamics,including leaf duration and leaf area index(LAI),varied across taxa and sites,with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI.Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events,with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage.Our findings highlight the importance of genetics,environment,and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production.These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding,conservation,and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.
基金supported by grants from the USDA Forest Service,Western Wildlands Environmental Threat Assessment Center(20-JV-11221634-190)the US Geological Survey Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center(G20AC00440-01)the U.S.National Science Foundation(NSF 2020185).
文摘Hydraulic vulnerability,the sensitivity of xylem embolism to water stress,is a major determinant trait associated with conifer mortality.This study investigated branch P50(50%hydraulic conductivity loss)of adult and juvenile ponderosa pines across multiple locations in the southwestern United States(SWUS),and examined relationships between P50 and climatic conditions,soil properties and forest management.Juvenile ponderosa pines had significantly more negative P50 values than adults on average.Both age groups exhibited a latitudinal pattern in P50 associated with regional climate conditions.Across the SWUS,juvenile P50 was positively correlated with growing season precipitation and temperature,and negatively correlated with soil pH and clay content.In some cases,significant differences in juvenile P50 between SWUS locations were associated with growing season moisture deficit,whereas other significant differences were less attributable to climate and may attest to potential genetic variation between populations.Climate variation,soil properties and population-level acclimation and/or adaptation may all influence the hydraulic vulnerability of juvenile ponderosa pines in the SWUS,promoting differences in stress tolerance of ponderosa pine forests across the region.
基金The USDA NIFA McIntire Stennis project#1014653 and the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences funded the research presented in this publication.
文摘A growing recognition that uneven-aged silviculture can offer multiple benefits to forested ecosystems has encouraged some landowners in the southern region of the United States to convert even-aged pine stands into multi-aged stands.For shade-intolerant pines of the southern United States,however,few studies have examined residual tree growth following silvicultural treatments that convert even-aged stands to multi-aged stands.Understanding the growth response of residual trees to different kinds of stand conversion treatments is critical to stand development and sustainability,as trees must be recruited into larger size classes during the conversion process to develop the desired stand structure and maintain productivity.In this study,we utilized a replicated,long-term silvicultural experimental trial in the southeastern United States to assess the effects of two cutting treatments(dispersed"single tree cutting"that created small canopy gaps and the"patch cutting"that created 0.1-0.8ha patch openings)and an uncut control on the 14-year growth(~cutting cycle length)of residual longleaf pine(Pinus palustris Mill.)trees.We found that tree growth,measured as mean basal area increment(BAI),was significantly higher following patch cutting(mean BAI of 16.97cm^(2))compared to both the single tree cutting(13.33cm^(2))and the uncut control(12.68cm^(2))(p<0.001).In patch cutting,the size of the patch opening,the location of trees surrounding the patch opening,and the position of the tree canopy all had a significant effect on BAI.Trees surrounding patch openings of 0.4ha exhibited greater growth,with a mean BAI of 19.24cm^(2),compared to those surrounding 0.1 and 0.8ha patch openings,which had mean BAI values of 15.89 and 15.71cm^(2),respectively(p<0.001).The position of a tree around the patch opening also influenced tree growth,as residual trees more to the North,South,and East sides exhibited significantly higher mean BAI than trees on the West side of the patch openings(p<0.001).However,distance from the patch opening border did not significantly affect the mean BAI(p=0.522).In all treatments,dominant and co-dominant trees exhibited higher BAI than intermediate and overtopped trees,indicating that tree canopy position significantly influenced tree growth(p<0.001).Understanding how residual trees grow after these silvicultural treatments is crucial for thoroughly assessing their efficacy with longleaf pine.This study's findings will enhance our understanding of stand dynamics during stand conversion and help land managers anticipate the growth of longleaf pine into larger size categories after single tree and patch cuttings.
基金funding enabled and organized by CAUL and its Member Institutions.
文摘The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31470623)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2011CB403205)
文摘Background: Soil organic carbon(SOC) is a large reservoir of terrestrial carbon(C); it consists of different fractions of varying complexity and stability. Partitioning SOC into different pools of decomposability help better predict the trend of changes in SOC dynamics under climate change. Information on how physical fractions and chemical structures of SOC are related to climate and vegetation types is essential for spatial model ing of SOC processes and responses to global change factors.Method: Soil samples were col ected from multiple representative forest sites of three contrasting climatic zones(i.e. cool temperate, warm temperate, and subtropical) in eastern China. Measurements were made on SOC contents and physical fractions of the 0–20 cm soil layer, and the chemical composition of SOC of the 0–5 cm soil layer, along with measurements and compilation of the basic site and forest stand variables. The long-term effects of temperature, litter inputs, soil characteristics and vegetation type on the SOC contents and factions were examined by means of "space for time substitution" approach and statistical analysis.Result: Mean annual temperature(MAT) varied from 2.1 °C at the cool temperate sites to 20.8 °C at the subtropical sites. Total SOC of the 0–20 cm soil layer decreased with increasing MAT, ranging from 89.2 g·kg^(-1) in cool temperate forests to 57.7 g·kg^(-1) in subtropical forests, at an average rate of 1.87% reduction in SOC with a 1 °C increase in MAT.With increasing MAT, the proportions of aromatic C and phenolic C displayed a tendency of decreases, whereas the proportion of alkyl C and A/O-A value(the ratio of alkyl C to the sum of O-alkyl C and acetal C) displayed a tendency of increases. Overall, there were no significant changes with MAT and forest type in either the physical fractions or the chemical composition. Based on the relationship between the SOC content and MAT, we estimate that SOC in the top 20 soil layer of forests potentially contribute 6.58–26.3 Pg C globally to the atmosphere if global MAT increases by 1 °C–4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, with nearly half of which(cf. 2.87–11.5 Pg C) occurring in the 0–5 cm mineral soils.Conclusion: Forest topsoil SOC content decreased and became chemical y more recalcitrant with increasing MAT,without apparent changes in the physical fractions of SOC.
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
文摘This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where models play a core role： model-assisted, model-based, and hybrid estimation. The first two are well known, whereas the third has only recently been introduced in forest surveys. Hybrid inference mixes design- based and model-based inference, since it relies on a probability sample of auxiliary data and a model predicting the target variable from the auxiliary data.We review studies on large-area forest surveys based on model-assisted, model- based, and hybrid estimation, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. We conclude that no general recommendations can be made about whether model-assisted, model-based, or hybrid estimation should be preferred. The choice depends on the objective of the survey and the possibilities to acquire appropriate field and remotely sensed data. We also conclude that modelling approaches can only be successfully applied for estimating target variables such as growing stock volume or biomass, which are adequately related to commonly available remotely sensed data, and thus purely field based surveys remain important for several important forest parameters.
基金Cooperation and logistical support of the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service(Avialesookhrana)and Russian Forest Service(Regional and Local Forestry Committees)is greatly appreciated.A special thanks to L.Bobkova,N.Koshurnikova,and E.Krasnoshchekova for their assistance in fuel sampling and to D.Randall for statistical analysis of tree data.
文摘Forest fuel investigations in central and southern Siberian taiga of Scots pine forest stands dominated by lichen and feather moss ground vegetation cover revealed that total aboveground biomass varied from 13.1 to 21.0 kg/m 2.Stand biomass was higher in plots in the southern taiga,while ground fuel loads were higher in the central taiga.We developed equations for fuel biomass(both aerial and ground)that could be applicable to similar pine forest sites of Central Siberia.Fuel loading variability found among plots is related to the impact and recovery time since the last wildfi re and the mosaic distribution of living vegetation.Fuel consumption due to surface fi res of low to high-intensities ranged from 0.95 to 3.08 kg/m 2,that is,18–74%from prefi re values.The total amount of fuels available to burn in case of fi re was up to 4.5–6.5 kg/m 2.Moisture content of fuels(litter,lichen,feather moss)was related to weather conditions characterized by the Russian Fire Danger Index(PV-1)and FWI code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.The data obtained provide a strong foundation for understanding and modeling fi re behavior,emissions,and fi re eff ects on ecosystem processes and carbon stocks and could be used to improve existing global and regional models that incorporate biomass and fuel characteristics.
