The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
民机飞行试验(试飞)过程复杂、涉及专业广、管理难度大,也是整个研制过程中安全性风险最大的环节之一,因此需要开展严格有效的试飞科目风险管控。失效模式及影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis,简称FMEA)是一种事前预防失效风...民机飞行试验(试飞)过程复杂、涉及专业广、管理难度大,也是整个研制过程中安全性风险最大的环节之一,因此需要开展严格有效的试飞科目风险管控。失效模式及影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis,简称FMEA)是一种事前预防失效风险的可靠性管理技术,通常应用在飞机、汽车等工业产品及其零部件的设计和生产过程。结合民机试飞的特点,对FMEA运用的方法及相关标准进行扩展和调整,提出了基于FMEA的民机试飞科目风险分析方法和管理要求,对试飞科目准备及实施的管理过程进行结构分解、分析,重点提出了10个过程项的结构树及风险评价标准、方法和示例,从流程方法、实施标准等理论基础方面初步验证了方法应用的可行性。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
文摘民机飞行试验(试飞)过程复杂、涉及专业广、管理难度大,也是整个研制过程中安全性风险最大的环节之一,因此需要开展严格有效的试飞科目风险管控。失效模式及影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis,简称FMEA)是一种事前预防失效风险的可靠性管理技术,通常应用在飞机、汽车等工业产品及其零部件的设计和生产过程。结合民机试飞的特点,对FMEA运用的方法及相关标准进行扩展和调整,提出了基于FMEA的民机试飞科目风险分析方法和管理要求,对试飞科目准备及实施的管理过程进行结构分解、分析,重点提出了10个过程项的结构树及风险评价标准、方法和示例,从流程方法、实施标准等理论基础方面初步验证了方法应用的可行性。
