Using Global Positioning System(GPS) data to analyze the earthquake preparation characteristics of the Kunlun Ms8.1 and the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes, we review the main research developments of earthquake forecastin...Using Global Positioning System(GPS) data to analyze the earthquake preparation characteristics of the Kunlun Ms8.1 and the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes, we review the main research developments of earthquake forecasting and the mechanisms of earthquake preparation using crustal deformation data from recent periods, and discuss the similarities and differences in the scientific approaches adopted by the Chinese and foreign scholars. We then analyze the deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation, with respect to slip and dip-slip faults. Our results show that, in order to understand the relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake preparation, research focus should be expanded from fault-scale to larger scale regions. Furthermore, the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation must be considered as a multiscale, spatial-temporal process, in order to obtain the necessary criteria for strong earthquake forecasts.展开更多
In order to obtain deformation parameters in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,Euler datum transformation and the least square collocation for data interpolation and smoothing are used to process GPS displac...In order to obtain deformation parameters in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,Euler datum transformation and the least square collocation for data interpolation and smoothing are used to process GPS displacement time series data in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,and the rigid and elastic-plastic block motion model is used to calculate the strain parameters in each subarea. Conjoint analysis of displacement,velocity of each station and strain parameters of each subarea reveals that the influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone increases from southeast to northwest,causing a highest deformation rate 6 times the background value and heightening the influence of the hidden faults on the difference of the earth surface along its two sides,which leads to the seismic risk of the southern segment increasing from north to south. The comparison of seismic risk among subareas based on the tectonic and seismicity background indicates that the most dangerous area is on the southeast of Longmenshan faults,and the background strain accumulation and the promoting effect of the Wenchuan earthquake advanced the occurrence of Lushan earthquake and the sinistral strike-slip on the rupture plane. The Wenchuan earthquake also caused a slight two-year long continuous strain release in the south segment of Xianshuihe fault,but the influence is far less than the effect of the compressive strain caused by the Sichuan-Yunnan block.展开更多
基金sponsored by the National Science and Technology Support Program (2012BAK19B01)the National Natural Science Fund (41274008)
文摘Using Global Positioning System(GPS) data to analyze the earthquake preparation characteristics of the Kunlun Ms8.1 and the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes, we review the main research developments of earthquake forecasting and the mechanisms of earthquake preparation using crustal deformation data from recent periods, and discuss the similarities and differences in the scientific approaches adopted by the Chinese and foreign scholars. We then analyze the deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation, with respect to slip and dip-slip faults. Our results show that, in order to understand the relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake preparation, research focus should be expanded from fault-scale to larger scale regions. Furthermore, the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation must be considered as a multiscale, spatial-temporal process, in order to obtain the necessary criteria for strong earthquake forecasts.
基金sponsored by the Director Fund of Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration(IS201526240)Data Sharing Special Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology,the People's Republic of China(IS20135065)
文摘In order to obtain deformation parameters in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,Euler datum transformation and the least square collocation for data interpolation and smoothing are used to process GPS displacement time series data in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,and the rigid and elastic-plastic block motion model is used to calculate the strain parameters in each subarea. Conjoint analysis of displacement,velocity of each station and strain parameters of each subarea reveals that the influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone increases from southeast to northwest,causing a highest deformation rate 6 times the background value and heightening the influence of the hidden faults on the difference of the earth surface along its two sides,which leads to the seismic risk of the southern segment increasing from north to south. The comparison of seismic risk among subareas based on the tectonic and seismicity background indicates that the most dangerous area is on the southeast of Longmenshan faults,and the background strain accumulation and the promoting effect of the Wenchuan earthquake advanced the occurrence of Lushan earthquake and the sinistral strike-slip on the rupture plane. The Wenchuan earthquake also caused a slight two-year long continuous strain release in the south segment of Xianshuihe fault,but the influence is far less than the effect of the compressive strain caused by the Sichuan-Yunnan block.
