The stratospheric Arctic vortex(SAV)plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in the northern midlatitudes.In this study,we systematically examined the responses of SAV intensity to regional sea surface temper...The stratospheric Arctic vortex(SAV)plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in the northern midlatitudes.In this study,we systematically examined the responses of SAV intensity to regional sea surface temperature(SST)changes using idealized SST patch experiments with a climate model.Our findings reveal that the SAV intensity is most sensitive to SST variations in the tropics and northern midlatitudes during boreal winter(December-January-February).Specifically,warming in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic leads to a weakening of the SAV,while warming in the tropical Indian Ocean,northern midlatitude Atlantic,and northwestern Pacific strengthens the SAV.Notably,the most substantial SAV weakening(strengthening)is triggered by warming in the tropical western Pacific(tropical central Indian Ocean),with a maximum magnitude of approximately 2.23 K K^(-1)(-1.77 K K^(-1)).The SST warming in the tropics influences the tropical convections,which excite Rossby wave trains.These wave trains can interfere with the climatological waves in the mid-high latitudes,while the SST warming in the northern midlatitudes can influence tropospheric planetary wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 directly.The changes in tropospheric planetary waves modulate the upward propagation of wave activities and impact the SAV intensity.Additionally,the response of the SAV to tropical SST changes,especially over the Indian Ocean and subtropics,exhibits significant nonlinearity.展开更多
Due to the control of ozone(O_(3))-depleting substances(ODSs),it is believed that stratospheric O_(3)will recover in the future.However,in the context of global change,the contributions of other factors to O_(3)recove...Due to the control of ozone(O_(3))-depleting substances(ODSs),it is believed that stratospheric O_(3)will recover in the future.However,in the context of global change,the contributions of other factors to O_(3)recovery are also worth discussing.This paper investigates the independent and joint influences of changes in global methane(CH_(4)),carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and sea surface temperature(SST)on stratospheric O_(3)under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)8.5 scenario in 2050 using sensitivity experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,version4.Results show that,in the polar lower stratosphere,CH_(4)can reduce ODSs via chemical processes and further increase stratospheric O_(3)and temperature,which tends to reduce polar stratospheric clouds.This acts as positive feedback to O_(3)recovery.The increase of CH_(4)in the sensitivity experiments(CH_(4)is adjusted to match the 2050 levels under the RCP8.5scenario)could lead to a polar O_(3)recovery of about 27.9 DU in the Arctic.Increased CO_(2)(CO_(2) is adjusted to match the 2050 levels under the RCP8.5 scenario)can indirectly lead to a 6.5 DU increase in global total column O_(3)(TCO)through radiative effects,while the influence of SST on TCO in tropical regions can reach-3.3%.For the joint impact of CH_(4),CO_(2)and SST changes,CH_(4)can account for up to 69.0%of the TCO variations in the Antarctic region.Finally,we compare the effects of CH_(4)and ODSs on O_(3)in the polar regions in future experiments based on the RCP8.5 scenario.We find that ODSs are a dominant factor in O_(3)depletion in both poles;however,after 2040,the influence of increased CH_(4)on O_(3)recovery in the Arctic will surpass the effect of decreased ODSs.It implies that the future increase in CH_(4)may have an important impact on O_(3).展开更多
基金the financial support of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFF0801701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants 42375070)。
文摘The stratospheric Arctic vortex(SAV)plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in the northern midlatitudes.In this study,we systematically examined the responses of SAV intensity to regional sea surface temperature(SST)changes using idealized SST patch experiments with a climate model.Our findings reveal that the SAV intensity is most sensitive to SST variations in the tropics and northern midlatitudes during boreal winter(December-January-February).Specifically,warming in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic leads to a weakening of the SAV,while warming in the tropical Indian Ocean,northern midlatitude Atlantic,and northwestern Pacific strengthens the SAV.Notably,the most substantial SAV weakening(strengthening)is triggered by warming in the tropical western Pacific(tropical central Indian Ocean),with a maximum magnitude of approximately 2.23 K K^(-1)(-1.77 K K^(-1)).The SST warming in the tropics influences the tropical convections,which excite Rossby wave trains.These wave trains can interfere with the climatological waves in the mid-high latitudes,while the SST warming in the northern midlatitudes can influence tropospheric planetary wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 directly.The changes in tropospheric planetary waves modulate the upward propagation of wave activities and impact the SAV intensity.Additionally,the response of the SAV to tropical SST changes,especially over the Indian Ocean and subtropics,exhibits significant nonlinearity.
基金financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42122037,42375070 and 42275084)。
文摘Due to the control of ozone(O_(3))-depleting substances(ODSs),it is believed that stratospheric O_(3)will recover in the future.However,in the context of global change,the contributions of other factors to O_(3)recovery are also worth discussing.This paper investigates the independent and joint influences of changes in global methane(CH_(4)),carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and sea surface temperature(SST)on stratospheric O_(3)under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)8.5 scenario in 2050 using sensitivity experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,version4.Results show that,in the polar lower stratosphere,CH_(4)can reduce ODSs via chemical processes and further increase stratospheric O_(3)and temperature,which tends to reduce polar stratospheric clouds.This acts as positive feedback to O_(3)recovery.The increase of CH_(4)in the sensitivity experiments(CH_(4)is adjusted to match the 2050 levels under the RCP8.5scenario)could lead to a polar O_(3)recovery of about 27.9 DU in the Arctic.Increased CO_(2)(CO_(2) is adjusted to match the 2050 levels under the RCP8.5 scenario)can indirectly lead to a 6.5 DU increase in global total column O_(3)(TCO)through radiative effects,while the influence of SST on TCO in tropical regions can reach-3.3%.For the joint impact of CH_(4),CO_(2)and SST changes,CH_(4)can account for up to 69.0%of the TCO variations in the Antarctic region.Finally,we compare the effects of CH_(4)and ODSs on O_(3)in the polar regions in future experiments based on the RCP8.5 scenario.We find that ODSs are a dominant factor in O_(3)depletion in both poles;however,after 2040,the influence of increased CH_(4)on O_(3)recovery in the Arctic will surpass the effect of decreased ODSs.It implies that the future increase in CH_(4)may have an important impact on O_(3).
