总结了目前最具代表性的3个全球集合预报系统(global ensemble forecast system,GEFS)——美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weathe...总结了目前最具代表性的3个全球集合预报系统(global ensemble forecast system,GEFS)——美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)和加拿大气象中心(Canadian Meteoro-logical Centre,CMC)建成至今的发展概况。由于计算资源的不断扩展,各中心集合预报系统的模式分辨率、集合成员数也随之增加。同时各中心都在不断地致力于发展和完善初始和模式扰动方法,来更好地估计与初值和模式有关的不确定性,促进预报技巧的提高。其中初始扰动方法从最初的奇异向量法(ECMWF)、增殖向量法(NCEP)和观测扰动法(CMC)更新为现在的集合资料同化—奇异向量法(ECMWF)、重新尺度化集合转换法(NCEP)和集合卡尔曼滤波(CMC)。在估计模式不确定性方面,ECMWF和CMC都修订了各自的随机参数化方案和多参数化方案,NCEP最近也在模式中加入了随机全倾向扰动。为提高全球高影响天气预报的准确率,TIGGE计划(the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)的提出增进了国际间对多模式、多中心集合预报的合作研究,北美集合预报系统(North American ensemble forecast system,NAEFS)为建立全球多模式集合预报系统提供了业务框架,这都将有助于未来全球交互式业务预报系统的构建。展开更多
Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ...Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty （initial error） and the forecast uncertainty （forecast error） by applying either the initial perturbation method or the multi-model/multiphysics method. In fact, the mean of an ensemble forecast offers a better forecast than a deterministic （or control） forecast after a short lead time （3-5 days） for global modelling applications. There is about a 1-2-day improvement in the forecast skill when using an ensemble mean instead of a single forecast for longer lead-time. The skillful forecast （65% and above of an anomaly correlation） could be extended to 8 days （or longer） by present-day ensemble forecast systems. Furthermore, ensemble forecasts can deliver a probabilistic forecast to the users, which is based on the probability density function （PDF） instead of a single-value forecast from a traditional deterministic system. It has long been recognized that the ensemble forecast not only improves our weather forecast predictability but also offers a remarkable forecast for the future uncertainty, such as the relative measure of predictability （RMOP） and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast （PQPF）. Not surprisingly, the success of the ensemble forecast and its wide application greatly increase the confidence of model developers and research communities.展开更多
Two important questions are addressed in this paper using the Global Ensemble Forecast System （GEFS） from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）： （1） How many ensemble members are needed to be...Two important questions are addressed in this paper using the Global Ensemble Forecast System （GEFS） from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）： （1） How many ensemble members are needed to better represent forecast uncertainties with limited computational resources？ （2） What is tile relative impact on forecast skill of increasing model resolution and ensemble size？ Two-month experiments at T126L28 resolution were used to test the impact of varying the ensemble size from 5 to 80 members at the 500- hPa geopotential height. Results indicate that increasing the ensemble size leads to significant improvements in the performance for all forecast ranges when measured by probabilistic metrics, but these improvements are not significant beyond 20 members for long forecast ranges when measured by deterministic metrics. An ensemble of 20 to 30 members is the most effective configuration of ensemble sizes by quantifying the tradeoff between ensemble performance and the cost of computational resources. Two representative configurations of the GEFS the T126L28 model with 70 members and the T190L28 model with 20 members, which have equivalent computing costs--were compared. Results confirm that, for the NCEP GEFS, increasing the model resolution is more （less） beneficial than increasing the ensemble size for a short （long） forecast range.展开更多
The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal a...The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal analysis solutions. This approach may sometimes create discontinuities in analysis fields and produce undesirable spin ups and spin downs. This study explores using incremental analysis updates （IAU） in 4D-Var to reduce the analysis discontinuities. IAU-based 4D-Var has almost the same mathematical formula as conventional 4D-Var if the initial condition increments are replaced with time-integrated increments as control variables. The IAU technique was implemented in the NASA/GSFC 4D-Var prototype and compared against a control run without IAU. The results showed that the initial precipitation spikes were removed and that other discontinuities were also reduced, especially for the analysis of surface temperature.展开更多
Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State Univers...Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State University （OSU） land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory （Noah） land model, were used to get parallel experiments NCEP/Department of Energy （DOE） Global Reanalysis 2 System （GLDAS）. The experiments also used land ICs from the （GR2） and the Global Land Data Assimilation Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model＇s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in E1 Nifio years, compared to La Nifia years model in monsoon predictions for individual years. and the Noah model performed better than the OSU These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.展开更多
Understanding ozone(O_(3))formation regime is a prerequisite in formulating an effective O_(3)pollution control strategy.Photochemical indicator is a simple and direct method in identifying O_(3)formation regimes.Most...Understanding ozone(O_(3))formation regime is a prerequisite in formulating an effective O_(3)pollution control strategy.Photochemical indicator is a simple and direct method in identifying O_(3)formation regimes.Most used indicators are derived from observations,whereas the role of atmospheric oxidation is not in consideration,which is the core driver of O_(3)formation.Thus,it may impact accuracy in signaling O_(3)formation regimes.In this study,an advanced three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and O_(3)formation regimes during a long-lasting O_(3)exceedance event in September 2017 over the Pearl River Delta(PRD)of China.We discovered a clear relationship between atmospheric oxidative capacity and O_(3)formation regime.Over eastern PRD,O_(3)formation was mainly in a NO x-limited regime when HO_(2)/OH ratio was higher than 11,while in a VOC-limited regime when the ratio was lower than 9.5.Over central and western PRD,an HO_(2)/OH ratio higher than 5 and lower than 2 was indicative of NO x-limited and VOC-limited regime,respectively.Physical contribution,including horizontal transport and vertical transport,may pose uncertainties on the indication of O_(3)formation regime by HO_(2)/OH ratio.In comparison with other commonly used photochemical indicators,HO_(2)/OH ratio had the best performance in differentiating O_(3)formation regimes.This study highlighted the necessities in using an atmospheric oxidative capacity-based indicator to infer O_(3)formation regime,and underscored the importance of characterizing behaviors of radicals to gain insight in atmospheric processes leading to O_(3)pollution over a photochemically active region.展开更多
Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary...Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.展开更多
Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land su...Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land surface processes on numerical weather prediction, we added modules to perturb soil moisture and soil temperature into NCEP＇s Global Ensemble Forecast System （GEFS）, and compared the results of a set of experiments involving different configurations of land surface and atmospheric perturbation. It was found that uncertainties in different soil layers varied due to the multiple timescales of interactions between land surface and atmospheric processes. Perturbations of the soil moisture and soil temperature at the land surface changed sensible and latent heat flux obviously, as compared to the less or indirect land surface perturbation experiment from the day-to-day forecasts. Soil state perturbations led to greater variation in surface heat fluxes that transferred to the upper troposphere, thus reflecting interactions and the response to atmospheric external forcing. Various verification scores were calculated in this study. The results indicated that taking the uncertainties of land surface processes into account in GEFS could contribute a slight improvement in forecast skill in terms of resolution and reliability, a noticeable reduction in forecast error, as well as an increase in ensemble spread in an under-dispersive system. This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the effects of land surface processes on predictability. Further research using more complex and suitable methods is needed to fully explore our understanding in this area.展开更多
Subseasonal Arctic sea ice prediction is highly needed for practical services including icebreakers and commercial ships,while limited by the capability of climate models.A bias correction methodology in this study wa...Subseasonal Arctic sea ice prediction is highly needed for practical services including icebreakers and commercial ships,while limited by the capability of climate models.A bias correction methodology in this study was proposed and performed on raw products from two climate models,the First Institute Oceanography Earth System Model(FIOESM)and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System(CFS),to improve 60 days predictions for Arctic sea ice.Both models were initialized on July 1,August 1,and September 1 in 2018.A 60-day forecast was conducted as a part of the official sea ice service,especially for the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)and the China Ocean Shipping(Group)Company(COSCO)Northeast Passage voyages during the summer of 2018.The results indicated that raw products from FIOESM underestimated sea ice concentration(SIC)overall,with a mean bias of SIC up to 30%.Bias correction resulted in a 27%improvement in the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of SIC and a 10%improvement in the Integrated Ice Edge Error(IIEE)of sea ice edge(SIE).For the CFS,the SIE overestimation in the marginal ice zone was the dominant features of raw products.Bias correction provided a 7%reduction in the RMSE of SIC and a 17%reduction in the IIEE of SIE.In terms of sea ice extent,FIOESM projected a reasonable minimum time and amount in mid-September;however,CFS failed to project both.Additional comparison with subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)models suggested that the bias correction methodology used in this study was more effective when predictions had larger biases.展开更多
This study presents a simplified multivariate bias correction scheme that is sequentially implemented in the GEOS5 data assimilation system and compared against a control experiment without model bias correction. The ...This study presents a simplified multivariate bias correction scheme that is sequentially implemented in the GEOS5 data assimilation system and compared against a control experiment without model bias correction. The results show considerable improvement in terms of the mean biases of rawinsonde observation-minus-background （OmB） residuals for observed water vapor, wind and temperature variables. The time series spectral analysis shows whitening of bias-corrected OmB residuals, and mean biases for rawinsonde observation-minus-analysis （OmA） are also improved. Some wind and temperature biases in the control experiment near the equatorial tropopause nearly vanish from the bias-corrected experiment. Despite the analysis improvement, the bias correction scheme has only a moderate impact on forecast skill. Significant interaction is also found among quality-control, satellite observation bias correction, and background bias correction, and the latter positively impacts satellite bias correction.展开更多
The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak bar...The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak baroclinic,and （iii） strong baroclinic.The linear and nonlinear evolution of wavenumber-2 baroclinic disturbances are examined in each of the three basic state vortices.The results show that the radial propagating speed of the vortex Rossby wave at the lower level is larger with the stronger baroclinicity,resulting in a faster linear axisymmetrization process in the stronger baroclinic vortex.It is found that the nonlinear axisymmetrization process takes the longest time in the strongest baroclinic vortex among the three different basic vortices due to the weaker kinetic energy transfer from asymmetric to symmetric circulations at the lower level.A major finding in this study is that the same initial asymmetric perturbation can have different effects on symmetric vortices depending on the initial vortex baroclinicity.In numerical weather prediction models,this implies that there exists a sensitivity of the subsequent structural and intensity change solely due to the specification of the initial vertical shear of the tropical cyclone vortex.展开更多
The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial p...The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance,resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances.The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances,resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.展开更多
A series of climate ensemble experiments using the climate model from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were performed to exam impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on dynamics of El-Nino/South-cr...A series of climate ensemble experiments using the climate model from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were performed to exam impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on dynamics of El-Nino/South-crn Oscillation (ENSO).A specific question addressed in this paper is how important the mean stationary wave influences anomalous Rossby wave trains or teleconnection patterns as often observed during ENSO events.Evidences from those ensemble simulations argue that ENSO anomalies,especially over Pacific-North America (PNA) region,appear to be a result of modification for climatological mean stationary wave forced by persistent tropical SST anomalies Therefore,the role of SST forcing in maintaining climate basic state is emphasized.In this argument,the interaction between atmospheric internal dynamics and external forcing,such as SST is a key element to understand and ultimately predict ENSO.展开更多
Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational...Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.展开更多
The interaction between tropical cyclone(TC)and the large-scale mean flows such as the inter-tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)is investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation model.Once a TC develops in the ...The interaction between tropical cyclone(TC)and the large-scale mean flows such as the inter-tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)is investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation model.Once a TC develops in the vicinity of the ITCZ region where satisfies both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities,the southeastward energy dispersion from the TC may disturb the ITCZ and thus help its breakdown.Cumulus convection can be organized in the region of cyclonic circulation,and the interaction between convective heating and the perturbation circulation may enhance the development of the waves,leading to the generation of a new tropical cyclone to the east.While the TC moves to the high latitude,the ITCZ will reform.Though repeating of this process,a synoptic-scale wave train oriented in the northwest-southeast direction can be generated and self-maintained.The results suggest that the mutual interaction among the low-frequency background flow,wave train pattern and TCs provides a possible mechanism for the origin of the summer synoptic scale wave train pattern over the western North Pacific.展开更多
Through the analysis of ensembles of coupled model simulations and projections collected from CMIP3 and CMIP5, we demonstrate that a fundamental spatial scale limit might exist below which useful additional refinement...Through the analysis of ensembles of coupled model simulations and projections collected from CMIP3 and CMIP5, we demonstrate that a fundamental spatial scale limit might exist below which useful additional refinement of climate model predictions and projections may not be possible. That limit varies among climate variables and from region to region. We show that the uncertainty（noise） in surface temperature predictions（represented by the spread among an ensemble of global climate model simulations） generally exceeds the ensemble mean（signal） at horizontal scales below 1000 km throughout North America, implying poor predictability at those scales. More limited skill is shown for the predictability of regional precipitation. The ensemble spread in this case tends to exceed or equal the ensemble mean for scales below 2000 km. These findings highlight the challenges in predicting regionally specific future climate anomalies, especially for hydroclimatic impacts such as drought and wetness.展开更多
By using a dynamical approach of core-magma angular momentum exchange, this study theoretically explains the continental formation and plate drift as well as main mountain uplifts in the early Earth period. The presen...By using a dynamical approach of core-magma angular momentum exchange, this study theoretically explains the continental formation and plate drift as well as main mountain uplifts in the early Earth period. The present mantle and lithosphere were the partial part of magma fluid layer (mantle currents) before and after the Earth’s crust formation. Thus, a theory is presented regarding the driving forces of plate drift, in the form of planetary scale mantle currents. The origin of mantle currents is traced back to the formation of the solar system. It is assumed that small particles (nebula matter) orbiting the Sun assembled, and a molten sphere of primordial Earth with different minerals evenly distributed throughout the total mass came into existence. Subsequently, a process called planetary differentiation took place, as the core and mantle currents (magma layer) started separating. This will inevitably cause the Earth to spin faster, and it is presumed that the inner core first gained angular velocity, thereby spinning faster than the material found at a shallower depth. The time interval of the angular momentum exchange between the core and the magma should have lasted for at least 0.1 - 0.2 billion years. Planetary scale vertical and horizontal circulations of mantle currents took place, and angular momentum exchange was realized through the vertical component. The horizontal part of the mantle currents, near the bottom of the lithosphere, became a real force to drive continental split and plate drift. The acceleration and deceleration of the core compared with the mantle currents then caused different flow directions in the two hemispheres. When the inner core rotates faster from west to east, upper mantle currents will tend to flow westwards and towards the two poles. Surface lighter materials converged towards the two poles so that two continental polar crust caps appeared when the magma surface was cooling. This caused two original supercontinents to form about 4.54 billion years ago, while an original oceanic zone formed in the tropics. The uneven latitudinal variation of crustal thickness did lead to thermal differences within the mantle currents. This caused the core-magma angular momentum exchange. Deceleration of the core will cause two flow vectors, northwesterly in the Northern Hemisphere and southwesterly in the Southern Hemisphere. The history of plate drift is then driven by the motion of upper mantle currents. A distinct Equatorial Convergence Zone of magma flow which developed early in Earth’s history, gave way to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, serving as a border for the magma fluids and continents from the two hemispheres. A possible mechanism for the formation of the Himalayans is the maximum shear stress created by an orthogonal convergence or collision between two continental plates driven by the upper mantle currents.展开更多
文摘总结了目前最具代表性的3个全球集合预报系统(global ensemble forecast system,GEFS)——美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)和加拿大气象中心(Canadian Meteoro-logical Centre,CMC)建成至今的发展概况。由于计算资源的不断扩展,各中心集合预报系统的模式分辨率、集合成员数也随之增加。同时各中心都在不断地致力于发展和完善初始和模式扰动方法,来更好地估计与初值和模式有关的不确定性,促进预报技巧的提高。其中初始扰动方法从最初的奇异向量法(ECMWF)、增殖向量法(NCEP)和观测扰动法(CMC)更新为现在的集合资料同化—奇异向量法(ECMWF)、重新尺度化集合转换法(NCEP)和集合卡尔曼滤波(CMC)。在估计模式不确定性方面,ECMWF和CMC都修订了各自的随机参数化方案和多参数化方案,NCEP最近也在模式中加入了随机全倾向扰动。为提高全球高影响天气预报的准确率,TIGGE计划(the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)的提出增进了国际间对多模式、多中心集合预报的合作研究,北美集合预报系统(North American ensemble forecast system,NAEFS)为建立全球多模式集合预报系统提供了业务框架,这都将有助于未来全球交互式业务预报系统的构建。
文摘Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty （initial error） and the forecast uncertainty （forecast error） by applying either the initial perturbation method or the multi-model/multiphysics method. In fact, the mean of an ensemble forecast offers a better forecast than a deterministic （or control） forecast after a short lead time （3-5 days） for global modelling applications. There is about a 1-2-day improvement in the forecast skill when using an ensemble mean instead of a single forecast for longer lead-time. The skillful forecast （65% and above of an anomaly correlation） could be extended to 8 days （or longer） by present-day ensemble forecast systems. Furthermore, ensemble forecasts can deliver a probabilistic forecast to the users, which is based on the probability density function （PDF） instead of a single-value forecast from a traditional deterministic system. It has long been recognized that the ensemble forecast not only improves our weather forecast predictability but also offers a remarkable forecast for the future uncertainty, such as the relative measure of predictability （RMOP） and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast （PQPF）. Not surprisingly, the success of the ensemble forecast and its wide application greatly increase the confidence of model developers and research communities.
文摘Two important questions are addressed in this paper using the Global Ensemble Forecast System （GEFS） from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）： （1） How many ensemble members are needed to better represent forecast uncertainties with limited computational resources？ （2） What is tile relative impact on forecast skill of increasing model resolution and ensemble size？ Two-month experiments at T126L28 resolution were used to test the impact of varying the ensemble size from 5 to 80 members at the 500- hPa geopotential height. Results indicate that increasing the ensemble size leads to significant improvements in the performance for all forecast ranges when measured by probabilistic metrics, but these improvements are not significant beyond 20 members for long forecast ranges when measured by deterministic metrics. An ensemble of 20 to 30 members is the most effective configuration of ensemble sizes by quantifying the tradeoff between ensemble performance and the cost of computational resources. Two representative configurations of the GEFS the T126L28 model with 70 members and the T190L28 model with 20 members, which have equivalent computing costs--were compared. Results confirm that, for the NCEP GEFS, increasing the model resolution is more （less） beneficial than increasing the ensemble size for a short （long） forecast range.
基金supported by NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
文摘The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal analysis solutions. This approach may sometimes create discontinuities in analysis fields and produce undesirable spin ups and spin downs. This study explores using incremental analysis updates （IAU） in 4D-Var to reduce the analysis discontinuities. IAU-based 4D-Var has almost the same mathematical formula as conventional 4D-Var if the initial condition increments are replaced with time-integrated increments as control variables. The IAU technique was implemented in the NASA/GSFC 4D-Var prototype and compared against a control run without IAU. The results showed that the initial precipitation spikes were removed and that other discontinuities were also reduced, especially for the analysis of surface temperature.
基金partially supported by the International S & T Cooperation Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2009DFA21430)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40921003)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the CAMS (Grant No. 2010Z003)
文摘Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State University （OSU） land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory （Noah） land model, were used to get parallel experiments NCEP/Department of Energy （DOE） Global Reanalysis 2 System （GLDAS）. The experiments also used land ICs from the （GR2） and the Global Land Data Assimilation Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model＇s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in E1 Nifio years, compared to La Nifia years model in monsoon predictions for individual years. and the Noah model performed better than the OSU These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.91644221,41575009)。
文摘Understanding ozone(O_(3))formation regime is a prerequisite in formulating an effective O_(3)pollution control strategy.Photochemical indicator is a simple and direct method in identifying O_(3)formation regimes.Most used indicators are derived from observations,whereas the role of atmospheric oxidation is not in consideration,which is the core driver of O_(3)formation.Thus,it may impact accuracy in signaling O_(3)formation regimes.In this study,an advanced three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between atmospheric oxidation and O_(3)formation regimes during a long-lasting O_(3)exceedance event in September 2017 over the Pearl River Delta(PRD)of China.We discovered a clear relationship between atmospheric oxidative capacity and O_(3)formation regime.Over eastern PRD,O_(3)formation was mainly in a NO x-limited regime when HO_(2)/OH ratio was higher than 11,while in a VOC-limited regime when the ratio was lower than 9.5.Over central and western PRD,an HO_(2)/OH ratio higher than 5 and lower than 2 was indicative of NO x-limited and VOC-limited regime,respectively.Physical contribution,including horizontal transport and vertical transport,may pose uncertainties on the indication of O_(3)formation regime by HO_(2)/OH ratio.In comparison with other commonly used photochemical indicators,HO_(2)/OH ratio had the best performance in differentiating O_(3)formation regimes.This study highlighted the necessities in using an atmospheric oxidative capacity-based indicator to infer O_(3)formation regime,and underscored the importance of characterizing behaviors of radicals to gain insight in atmospheric processes leading to O_(3)pollution over a photochemically active region.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41905096)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030604, 41875051, and 41425018)。
文摘Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.
基金supported by the National Fundamental(973) Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430100)the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201506005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41475097,41075079,41275065 and 41475054)
文摘Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land surface processes on numerical weather prediction, we added modules to perturb soil moisture and soil temperature into NCEP＇s Global Ensemble Forecast System （GEFS）, and compared the results of a set of experiments involving different configurations of land surface and atmospheric perturbation. It was found that uncertainties in different soil layers varied due to the multiple timescales of interactions between land surface and atmospheric processes. Perturbations of the soil moisture and soil temperature at the land surface changed sensible and latent heat flux obviously, as compared to the less or indirect land surface perturbation experiment from the day-to-day forecasts. Soil state perturbations led to greater variation in surface heat fluxes that transferred to the upper troposphere, thus reflecting interactions and the response to atmospheric external forcing. Various verification scores were calculated in this study. The results indicated that taking the uncertainties of land surface processes into account in GEFS could contribute a slight improvement in forecast skill in terms of resolution and reliability, a noticeable reduction in forecast error, as well as an increase in ensemble spread in an under-dispersive system. This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the effects of land surface processes on predictability. Further research using more complex and suitable methods is needed to fully explore our understanding in this area.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2018YFC1407206the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41821004 and U1606405the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institute of China(Shu Xingbei Young Talent Program)under contract No.2019S06.
文摘Subseasonal Arctic sea ice prediction is highly needed for practical services including icebreakers and commercial ships,while limited by the capability of climate models.A bias correction methodology in this study was proposed and performed on raw products from two climate models,the First Institute Oceanography Earth System Model(FIOESM)and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System(CFS),to improve 60 days predictions for Arctic sea ice.Both models were initialized on July 1,August 1,and September 1 in 2018.A 60-day forecast was conducted as a part of the official sea ice service,especially for the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)and the China Ocean Shipping(Group)Company(COSCO)Northeast Passage voyages during the summer of 2018.The results indicated that raw products from FIOESM underestimated sea ice concentration(SIC)overall,with a mean bias of SIC up to 30%.Bias correction resulted in a 27%improvement in the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of SIC and a 10%improvement in the Integrated Ice Edge Error(IIEE)of sea ice edge(SIE).For the CFS,the SIE overestimation in the marginal ice zone was the dominant features of raw products.Bias correction provided a 7%reduction in the RMSE of SIC and a 17%reduction in the IIEE of SIE.In terms of sea ice extent,FIOESM projected a reasonable minimum time and amount in mid-September;however,CFS failed to project both.Additional comparison with subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)models suggested that the bias correction methodology used in this study was more effective when predictions had larger biases.
文摘This study presents a simplified multivariate bias correction scheme that is sequentially implemented in the GEOS5 data assimilation system and compared against a control experiment without model bias correction. The results show considerable improvement in terms of the mean biases of rawinsonde observation-minus-background （OmB） residuals for observed water vapor, wind and temperature variables. The time series spectral analysis shows whitening of bias-corrected OmB residuals, and mean biases for rawinsonde observation-minus-analysis （OmA） are also improved. Some wind and temperature biases in the control experiment near the equatorial tropopause nearly vanish from the bias-corrected experiment. Despite the analysis improvement, the bias correction scheme has only a moderate impact on forecast skill. Significant interaction is also found among quality-control, satellite observation bias correction, and background bias correction, and the latter positively impacts satellite bias correction.
基金supported by ONR Grants N000140310739 and PE 0602435Npartially sponsored by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
文摘The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak baroclinic,and （iii） strong baroclinic.The linear and nonlinear evolution of wavenumber-2 baroclinic disturbances are examined in each of the three basic state vortices.The results show that the radial propagating speed of the vortex Rossby wave at the lower level is larger with the stronger baroclinicity,resulting in a faster linear axisymmetrization process in the stronger baroclinic vortex.It is found that the nonlinear axisymmetrization process takes the longest time in the strongest baroclinic vortex among the three different basic vortices due to the weaker kinetic energy transfer from asymmetric to symmetric circulations at the lower level.A major finding in this study is that the same initial asymmetric perturbation can have different effects on symmetric vortices depending on the initial vortex baroclinicity.In numerical weather prediction models,this implies that there exists a sensitivity of the subsequent structural and intensity change solely due to the specification of the initial vertical shear of the tropical cyclone vortex.
基金sponsored by ONR Grants PE 0602435N and N000140310739partially supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
文摘The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance,resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances.The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances,resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.
文摘A series of climate ensemble experiments using the climate model from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were performed to exam impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on dynamics of El-Nino/South-crn Oscillation (ENSO).A specific question addressed in this paper is how important the mean stationary wave influences anomalous Rossby wave trains or teleconnection patterns as often observed during ENSO events.Evidences from those ensemble simulations argue that ENSO anomalies,especially over Pacific-North America (PNA) region,appear to be a result of modification for climatological mean stationary wave forced by persistent tropical SST anomalies Therefore,the role of SST forcing in maintaining climate basic state is emphasized.In this argument,the interaction between atmospheric internal dynamics and external forcing,such as SST is a key element to understand and ultimately predict ENSO.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975137,42175012,and 41475097)the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2018YFF0300103).
文摘Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.
基金the National Key Basic Research Program of China(2015CB452803)the Key University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province(14KJA170005)
文摘The interaction between tropical cyclone(TC)and the large-scale mean flows such as the inter-tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)is investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation model.Once a TC develops in the vicinity of the ITCZ region where satisfies both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities,the southeastward energy dispersion from the TC may disturb the ITCZ and thus help its breakdown.Cumulus convection can be organized in the region of cyclonic circulation,and the interaction between convective heating and the perturbation circulation may enhance the development of the waves,leading to the generation of a new tropical cyclone to the east.While the TC moves to the high latitude,the ITCZ will reform.Though repeating of this process,a synoptic-scale wave train oriented in the northwest-southeast direction can be generated and self-maintained.The results suggest that the mutual interaction among the low-frequency background flow,wave train pattern and TCs provides a possible mechanism for the origin of the summer synoptic scale wave train pattern over the western North Pacific.
基金partially supported by the NSF(Grant No.AGS-1305798)the ONR(Grant No.N000140910526)
文摘Through the analysis of ensembles of coupled model simulations and projections collected from CMIP3 and CMIP5, we demonstrate that a fundamental spatial scale limit might exist below which useful additional refinement of climate model predictions and projections may not be possible. That limit varies among climate variables and from region to region. We show that the uncertainty（noise） in surface temperature predictions（represented by the spread among an ensemble of global climate model simulations） generally exceeds the ensemble mean（signal） at horizontal scales below 1000 km throughout North America, implying poor predictability at those scales. More limited skill is shown for the predictability of regional precipitation. The ensemble spread in this case tends to exceed or equal the ensemble mean for scales below 2000 km. These findings highlight the challenges in predicting regionally specific future climate anomalies, especially for hydroclimatic impacts such as drought and wetness.
文摘By using a dynamical approach of core-magma angular momentum exchange, this study theoretically explains the continental formation and plate drift as well as main mountain uplifts in the early Earth period. The present mantle and lithosphere were the partial part of magma fluid layer (mantle currents) before and after the Earth’s crust formation. Thus, a theory is presented regarding the driving forces of plate drift, in the form of planetary scale mantle currents. The origin of mantle currents is traced back to the formation of the solar system. It is assumed that small particles (nebula matter) orbiting the Sun assembled, and a molten sphere of primordial Earth with different minerals evenly distributed throughout the total mass came into existence. Subsequently, a process called planetary differentiation took place, as the core and mantle currents (magma layer) started separating. This will inevitably cause the Earth to spin faster, and it is presumed that the inner core first gained angular velocity, thereby spinning faster than the material found at a shallower depth. The time interval of the angular momentum exchange between the core and the magma should have lasted for at least 0.1 - 0.2 billion years. Planetary scale vertical and horizontal circulations of mantle currents took place, and angular momentum exchange was realized through the vertical component. The horizontal part of the mantle currents, near the bottom of the lithosphere, became a real force to drive continental split and plate drift. The acceleration and deceleration of the core compared with the mantle currents then caused different flow directions in the two hemispheres. When the inner core rotates faster from west to east, upper mantle currents will tend to flow westwards and towards the two poles. Surface lighter materials converged towards the two poles so that two continental polar crust caps appeared when the magma surface was cooling. This caused two original supercontinents to form about 4.54 billion years ago, while an original oceanic zone formed in the tropics. The uneven latitudinal variation of crustal thickness did lead to thermal differences within the mantle currents. This caused the core-magma angular momentum exchange. Deceleration of the core will cause two flow vectors, northwesterly in the Northern Hemisphere and southwesterly in the Southern Hemisphere. The history of plate drift is then driven by the motion of upper mantle currents. A distinct Equatorial Convergence Zone of magma flow which developed early in Earth’s history, gave way to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, serving as a border for the magma fluids and continents from the two hemispheres. A possible mechanism for the formation of the Himalayans is the maximum shear stress created by an orthogonal convergence or collision between two continental plates driven by the upper mantle currents.
