In view of the problem that a single modeling method cannot predict the distribution of microfacies, a new idea of coupling modeling method to comprehensively predict the distribution of sedimentary microfacies was pr...In view of the problem that a single modeling method cannot predict the distribution of microfacies, a new idea of coupling modeling method to comprehensively predict the distribution of sedimentary microfacies was proposed, breaking the tradition that different sedimentary microfacies used the same modeling method in the past. Because different sedimentary microfacies have different distribution characteristics and geometric shapes, it is more accurate to select different simulation methods for prediction. In this paper, the coupling modeling method was to establish the distribution of sedimentary microfacies with simple geometry through the point indicating process simulation, and then predict the microfacies with complex spatial distribution through the sequential indicator simulation method. Taking the DC block of Bohai basin as an example, a high-precision reservoir sedimentary microfacies model was established by the above coupling modeling method, and the model verification results showed that the sedimentary microfacies model had a high consistency with the underground. The coupling microfacies modeling method had higher accuracy and reliability than the traditional modeling method, which provided a new idea for the prediction of sedimentary microfacies.展开更多
The water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has attracted considerable attention from the Chinese public and government since the announcement of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project （SN...The water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has attracted considerable attention from the Chinese public and government since the announcement of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, which commenced transferring water in 2014. Integrated research on the evaluation, prediction, and protection of water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was carried out in this study in order to improve environmental management. Based on 120 water samples, wherein 17 water quality indices were measured at 20 monitoring sites, a single factor evaluation method was used to evaluate the current status of water quality. The results show that the main indices influencing the water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir are total phosphorus （TP）, permanganate index （CODM,）, dissolved oxygen （DO）, and five-day biochemical oxygen demand （BODs）, and the concentrations of TP, BODs, ammonia nitrogen （NH3--N）, CODM,, DO, and anionic surfactant （Surfa） do not reach the specified standard levels in the tributaries. Seasonal Mann--Kendall tests indicated that the CODMn concentration shows a highly significant increasing trend, and the TP concentration shows a significant increasing trend in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The distribution of the main water quality indices in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was predicted using a two-dimensional water quality numerical model, and showed that the sphere of influence from the tributaries can spread across half of the Han Reservoir if the pollutants are not controlled. Cluster analysis （CA） results suggest that the Shending River is heavily polluted, that the Jianghe, Sihe, and Jianhe rivers are moderately polluted, and that they should be the focus of environmental remediation.展开更多
Elder abuse is an emerging issue of serious concern with life-threatening consequences. This study aimed to develop and assess the validity and reliability of a new scale to assess elder abuse. A cross-sectional multi...Elder abuse is an emerging issue of serious concern with life-threatening consequences. This study aimed to develop and assess the validity and reliability of a new scale to assess elder abuse. A cross-sectional multistage sampling technique was used to obtain a nationally representative sample of older Malaysians. The iterative development process resulted in a 16-item, four-dimension scale. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a 10-item scale with three factors. The value of Cronbach’s alpha for total scale and its subscales indicated sufficient internal consistency. Multitrait scaling analysis also showed good convergent and discriminant validity. Furthermore, predictive validity of the proposed scale was established by demonstrating a statistically significant association between elder abuse and depression through multiple logistic regression analysis. The findings from this study demonstrate an acceptable level of validity and reliability for new scale. This scale can be used by health and social care workers to identify elder abuse cases.展开更多
In response to the main problems in commonly used model selection methods,a method was proposed to apply the concept of experimental design to the optimization of uncertain reservoir models.Firstly,based on the actual...In response to the main problems in commonly used model selection methods,a method was proposed to apply the concept of experimental design to the optimization of uncertain reservoir models.Firstly,based on the actual situation of the oil field,the uncertain variables were determined that affect the geological reserves of the model and their possible range of variation,and experimental design was used to determine the modeling plan.Then,multiple geological models were established and reserves were calculated,and multiple regression was performed between uncertain variables and the corresponding geological reserves of the model.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation technology was applied to determine the parameters of the P10,P50,and P90 models for probabilistic reserves,and P10,P50,and P90 models were established.This method is not only more objective and time-saving in the application process,but also can determine the main geological variables that affect geological reserves,providing a new idea for evaluating the uncertainty of geological reserves.展开更多
The wetlands in Australia are of great physical,chemical and biological variety due to the continent's age,geological history and climate.The traditional physical and biological threats remain as the main challeng...The wetlands in Australia are of great physical,chemical and biological variety due to the continent's age,geological history and climate.The traditional physical and biological threats remain as the main challenges for wetland preservation in Australia.However,it has been increasingly recognized that the immediate survival of wetlands are being affected by more subtle threats,such as administrative and political threats.This paper identifies these non-physical threats and discusses how and why they have become the major barriers for sustainable wetland preservation in Australia.Finally,this paper calls for more practical policies and solutions to be implemented for sustainable wetland preservation in Australia.展开更多
Emergy theory and method are used to evaluate the contribution of irrigation water, and the process of its utilization, in three agricultural systems. The agricultural systems evaluated in this study were rice, wheat,...Emergy theory and method are used to evaluate the contribution of irrigation water, and the process of its utilization, in three agricultural systems. The agricultural systems evaluated in this study were rice, wheat, and oilseed rape productions in an irrigation pumping district of China. A corresponding framework for emergy evaluation and sensitivity analysis methods was proposed. Two new indices, the fraction of irrigation water （FIW）, and the irrigation intensity of agriculture （IIA）, were developed to depict the contribution of irrigation water. The calculated FIW indicated that irrigation water used for the rice production system （34.7%） contributed more than irrigation water used for wheat （5.3%） and oilseed rape （11.2%） production systems in a typical dry year. The wheat production with an IIA of 19.0 had the highest net benefit from irrigation compared to the rice （2.9） and oilseed rape （8.9） productions. The transformities of the systems＇ products represented different energy efficiencies for rice （2.50E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1）, wheat （1.66E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1） and oilseed rape （2.14E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1） production systems. According to several emergy indices, of the three systems evaluated, the rice system had the greatest level of sustainability. However, all of them were less sustainable than the ecological agricultural systems. A sensitivity analysis showed that the emergy inputs of irrigation water and nitrogenous fertilizer were the highest sensitivity factors influencing the emergy ratios. Best Management Practices, and other agroecological strategies, could be implemented to make further improvements in the sustainability of the three systems.展开更多
The emergy concept was used to evaluate a pumping irrigation water production system in China. A framework for emergy evaluation of the significance of irrigation water and its production process was developed. The re...The emergy concept was used to evaluate a pumping irrigation water production system in China. A framework for emergy evaluation of the significance of irrigation water and its production process was developed. The results show that the irrigation water saved has the highest emergy value （8.73E ＋ 05 sej. J-1）, followed by the irrigation water supplied to farmlands （1.72E ＋ 05 sej.J-1）, the pumped water （4.81E＋04sej.-1）, with the lowest value shown from water taken from the local river （3.72E ＋04sej.j1）. The major contributions to the emergy needed for production are the inputs of soil and water. This production system could contribute to the irrigated agriculture and economy, according to several calculated emergy indices： emergy yield ratio （EYR）, emergy investment ratio （EIR）, environmental load ratio （ELR）, and environmental sustainability index （ESI）. The com- parative analysis shows that the emergy theory and method, different from the conventional monetary-based analysis, could be used to evaluate irrigation water and its production process in terms of the biophysical account. Additional emergy evaluations should be completed on different types of water production and irrigated agricul- tural systems to provide adequate guidelines for the sustainability of irrigation development.展开更多
Lake-effect snowfall(LES)occurs when cold air moves across open lakes.LES is expected to occur more frequently over the TP,due to the intensified lake expansion caused by intensified global warming.Thus,there is an ur...Lake-effect snowfall(LES)occurs when cold air moves across open lakes.LES is expected to occur more frequently over the TP,due to the intensified lake expansion caused by intensified global warming.Thus,there is an urgent need to comprehensively assess the LES over the TP.Here,we revealed that the LES is triggered by westerly southward shift leading to the drop in air temperature and is positively correlated with lake area,wind speed and longitude across 12 large lakes(>300 km^(2))based on satellite observations and reanalysis data.Using a sensitivity model simulation,we determined that large lakes in the southern TP contributed to more than 50%of the snowfall in the downwind area in 2013.Projections indicate that the westerly-triggered LES will increase under the future RCP4.5 climate warming scenario,highlighting the importance of developing adaptive policies to address the growing risks associated with future LES.展开更多
文摘In view of the problem that a single modeling method cannot predict the distribution of microfacies, a new idea of coupling modeling method to comprehensively predict the distribution of sedimentary microfacies was proposed, breaking the tradition that different sedimentary microfacies used the same modeling method in the past. Because different sedimentary microfacies have different distribution characteristics and geometric shapes, it is more accurate to select different simulation methods for prediction. In this paper, the coupling modeling method was to establish the distribution of sedimentary microfacies with simple geometry through the point indicating process simulation, and then predict the microfacies with complex spatial distribution through the sequential indicator simulation method. Taking the DC block of Bohai basin as an example, a high-precision reservoir sedimentary microfacies model was established by the above coupling modeling method, and the model verification results showed that the sedimentary microfacies model had a high consistency with the underground. The coupling microfacies modeling method had higher accuracy and reliability than the traditional modeling method, which provided a new idea for the prediction of sedimentary microfacies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41101250 and 51309031)the Chinese 12th Five-Year Science and Technology Support Program(Grant No.2012BAC06B00)
文摘The water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has attracted considerable attention from the Chinese public and government since the announcement of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, which commenced transferring water in 2014. Integrated research on the evaluation, prediction, and protection of water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was carried out in this study in order to improve environmental management. Based on 120 water samples, wherein 17 water quality indices were measured at 20 monitoring sites, a single factor evaluation method was used to evaluate the current status of water quality. The results show that the main indices influencing the water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir are total phosphorus （TP）, permanganate index （CODM,）, dissolved oxygen （DO）, and five-day biochemical oxygen demand （BODs）, and the concentrations of TP, BODs, ammonia nitrogen （NH3--N）, CODM,, DO, and anionic surfactant （Surfa） do not reach the specified standard levels in the tributaries. Seasonal Mann--Kendall tests indicated that the CODMn concentration shows a highly significant increasing trend, and the TP concentration shows a significant increasing trend in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The distribution of the main water quality indices in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was predicted using a two-dimensional water quality numerical model, and showed that the sphere of influence from the tributaries can spread across half of the Han Reservoir if the pollutants are not controlled. Cluster analysis （CA） results suggest that the Shending River is heavily polluted, that the Jianghe, Sihe, and Jianhe rivers are moderately polluted, and that they should be the focus of environmental remediation.
文摘Elder abuse is an emerging issue of serious concern with life-threatening consequences. This study aimed to develop and assess the validity and reliability of a new scale to assess elder abuse. A cross-sectional multistage sampling technique was used to obtain a nationally representative sample of older Malaysians. The iterative development process resulted in a 16-item, four-dimension scale. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a 10-item scale with three factors. The value of Cronbach’s alpha for total scale and its subscales indicated sufficient internal consistency. Multitrait scaling analysis also showed good convergent and discriminant validity. Furthermore, predictive validity of the proposed scale was established by demonstrating a statistically significant association between elder abuse and depression through multiple logistic regression analysis. The findings from this study demonstrate an acceptable level of validity and reliability for new scale. This scale can be used by health and social care workers to identify elder abuse cases.
基金supported by Tangshan Normal University Scientific Research Fund Project (2019A08)Hebei Provincial Natural Science Youth Fund Project (D2022105002).
文摘In response to the main problems in commonly used model selection methods,a method was proposed to apply the concept of experimental design to the optimization of uncertain reservoir models.Firstly,based on the actual situation of the oil field,the uncertain variables were determined that affect the geological reserves of the model and their possible range of variation,and experimental design was used to determine the modeling plan.Then,multiple geological models were established and reserves were calculated,and multiple regression was performed between uncertain variables and the corresponding geological reserves of the model.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation technology was applied to determine the parameters of the P10,P50,and P90 models for probabilistic reserves,and P10,P50,and P90 models were established.This method is not only more objective and time-saving in the application process,but also can determine the main geological variables that affect geological reserves,providing a new idea for evaluating the uncertainty of geological reserves.
文摘The wetlands in Australia are of great physical,chemical and biological variety due to the continent's age,geological history and climate.The traditional physical and biological threats remain as the main challenges for wetland preservation in Australia.However,it has been increasingly recognized that the immediate survival of wetlands are being affected by more subtle threats,such as administrative and political threats.This paper identifies these non-physical threats and discusses how and why they have become the major barriers for sustainable wetland preservation in Australia.Finally,this paper calls for more practical policies and solutions to be implemented for sustainable wetland preservation in Australia.
文摘Emergy theory and method are used to evaluate the contribution of irrigation water, and the process of its utilization, in three agricultural systems. The agricultural systems evaluated in this study were rice, wheat, and oilseed rape productions in an irrigation pumping district of China. A corresponding framework for emergy evaluation and sensitivity analysis methods was proposed. Two new indices, the fraction of irrigation water （FIW）, and the irrigation intensity of agriculture （IIA）, were developed to depict the contribution of irrigation water. The calculated FIW indicated that irrigation water used for the rice production system （34.7%） contributed more than irrigation water used for wheat （5.3%） and oilseed rape （11.2%） production systems in a typical dry year. The wheat production with an IIA of 19.0 had the highest net benefit from irrigation compared to the rice （2.9） and oilseed rape （8.9） productions. The transformities of the systems＇ products represented different energy efficiencies for rice （2.50E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1）, wheat （1.66E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1） and oilseed rape （2.14E ＋ 05 sej .J^-1） production systems. According to several emergy indices, of the three systems evaluated, the rice system had the greatest level of sustainability. However, all of them were less sustainable than the ecological agricultural systems. A sensitivity analysis showed that the emergy inputs of irrigation water and nitrogenous fertilizer were the highest sensitivity factors influencing the emergy ratios. Best Management Practices, and other agroecological strategies, could be implemented to make further improvements in the sustainability of the three systems.
文摘The emergy concept was used to evaluate a pumping irrigation water production system in China. A framework for emergy evaluation of the significance of irrigation water and its production process was developed. The results show that the irrigation water saved has the highest emergy value （8.73E ＋ 05 sej. J-1）, followed by the irrigation water supplied to farmlands （1.72E ＋ 05 sej.J-1）, the pumped water （4.81E＋04sej.-1）, with the lowest value shown from water taken from the local river （3.72E ＋04sej.j1）. The major contributions to the emergy needed for production are the inputs of soil and water. This production system could contribute to the irrigated agriculture and economy, according to several calculated emergy indices： emergy yield ratio （EYR）, emergy investment ratio （EIR）, environmental load ratio （ELR）, and environmental sustainability index （ESI）. The com- parative analysis shows that the emergy theory and method, different from the conventional monetary-based analysis, could be used to evaluate irrigation water and its production process in terms of the biophysical account. Additional emergy evaluations should be completed on different types of water production and irrigated agricul- tural systems to provide adequate guidelines for the sustainability of irrigation development.
基金supported by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS2022067)the Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System(41988101)。
文摘Lake-effect snowfall(LES)occurs when cold air moves across open lakes.LES is expected to occur more frequently over the TP,due to the intensified lake expansion caused by intensified global warming.Thus,there is an urgent need to comprehensively assess the LES over the TP.Here,we revealed that the LES is triggered by westerly southward shift leading to the drop in air temperature and is positively correlated with lake area,wind speed and longitude across 12 large lakes(>300 km^(2))based on satellite observations and reanalysis data.Using a sensitivity model simulation,we determined that large lakes in the southern TP contributed to more than 50%of the snowfall in the downwind area in 2013.Projections indicate that the westerly-triggered LES will increase under the future RCP4.5 climate warming scenario,highlighting the importance of developing adaptive policies to address the growing risks associated with future LES.
