Lost circulation of drilling fluid is one of the most common and costly problems in drilling operations.This highlights the importance of wellbore strengthening treatment sthat can utilize lost circulation materials(L...Lost circulation of drilling fluid is one of the most common and costly problems in drilling operations.This highlights the importance of wellbore strengthening treatment sthat can utilize lost circulation materials(LCMs)to seal fractures associated with the wellbore.In this work,a numerical model accounting for the deformation of surrounding rock,fluid flow in the fracture,fracture propagation,and the transport of LCMs is presented to investigate the wellbore strengthening,from the fracture initiation to the fracture arrest,due to plugs formed by LCMs.The equations governing the rock deformation and fluid flow are solved by the dual boundary element method and the finite volume method,respectively.The transport of LCMs is solved based on an empirical constitutive model in suspension flow,and several characteristic quantities are derived by dimensional analysis.It is found that two dimensionless parameters,dimensionless toughness and normalized initial particle concentration,control the migration of LCM particles.The numerical results show that the dimensionless toughness influences the entrance and bridging of LCMs while the initial concentration controls the location of the particle bridging.When the initial concentration is larger than 0.8,the particle bridging tends to occur near the fracture entry.Conversely,when the initial concentration is less than 0.8,the particle bridging occurs near the fracture tip.This work provides an effective tool to predict the LCM transport and plugging in the wellbore strengthening process.展开更多
A hybrid numerical method for the hydraulic modeling of a curtain-walled dissipater of reflected waves from breakwaters is presented. In this method, a zonal approach that combines a nonlinear weakly dispersive wave (...A hybrid numerical method for the hydraulic modeling of a curtain-walled dissipater of reflected waves from breakwaters is presented. In this method, a zonal approach that combines a nonlinear weakly dispersive wave (Boussinesq-type equation) method and a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) method is used. The Boussinesq-type equation is solved in the far field to describe wave transformation in shallow water. The RANS method is used in die near field to resolve the turbulent boundary layer and vortex flows around the structure. Suitable matching conditions are enforced at the interface between the viscous and the Boussinesq region. The Coupled RANS and Boussinesq method successfully resolves the vortex characteristics of flow in the vicinity of the structure, while unexpected phenomena like wave re-reflection are effectively controlled by lengthening the Boussinesq region. Extensive results on hydraulic performance of a curtain-walled dissipater and the mechanism of dissipation of reflected waves are presented, providing a reference for minimization of die breadth of the water chamber and for determination of the submerged depth of the curtain wall.展开更多
Low-head hydraulic turbines are the subjects to individual approach of design. This comes from the fact that hydrological conditions are not of a standard character. Therefore, the design method of the hydraulic turbi...Low-head hydraulic turbines are the subjects to individual approach of design. This comes from the fact that hydrological conditions are not of a standard character. Therefore, the design method of the hydraulic turbine stage has a great importance for those who may be interested in such an investment. As a first task in a design procedure the guide vane is considered. The proposed method is based on the solution of the inverse problem within the flame of 2D model. By the inverse problem authors mean a design of the blade shapes for given flow conditions. In the paper analytical solution for the simple cylindrical shape of a guide vane is presented. For the more realistic cases numerical solutions according to the axis-symmetrical model of the flow are also presented. The influence of such parameters as the inclination of trailing edge, the blockage factor due to blade thickness, the influence of loss due to dissipation are shown for the chosen simple geometrical example.展开更多
In this study, the goal is to increase the efficiency of a high-pressure hydraulic turbine. The goal is achieved by numerical flow simulation using CFX-TASCflow. This approach reduces costs and time compared to the ex...In this study, the goal is to increase the efficiency of a high-pressure hydraulic turbine. The goal is achieved by numerical flow simulation using CFX-TASCflow. This approach reduces costs and time compared to the experimental approach and allows for improving the turbine productivity and its design. The analysis of energy losses in the flow part of the turbine Fr500, as well as the analysis of the influence of the opening of the guide vanes on changes in energy losses. The results showed that the greatest losses occur in the guide vane 3.02% based on the two-dimensional model and 2.5% based on the 3D model, which significantly affects the efficiency. The analysis was carried out using programs for calculating fluid flow in two-dimensional and three-dimensional formulations. With the help of the study, the main energy problem is solved—increasing efficiency.展开更多
The mechanical behavior of cohesive soil is sensitized to drying-wetting cycles under confinements.However,the hydromechanical coupling effect has not been considered in current constitutive models.A macro-micro analy...The mechanical behavior of cohesive soil is sensitized to drying-wetting cycles under confinements.However,the hydromechanical coupling effect has not been considered in current constitutive models.A macro-micro analysis scheme is proposed in this paper to investigate the soil deformation behavior under the coupling of stress and drying-wetting cycles.A new device is developed based on CT(computerized tomography)workstation to apply certain normal and shear stresses on a soil specimen during drying-wetting cycles.A series of tests are conducted on a type of loess with various coupling of stress paths and drying-wetting cycles.At macroscopic level,stress sensor and laser sensor are used to acquire stress and strain,respectively.The shear and volumetric strain increase during the first few drying-wetting cycles and then become stable.The increase of the shear stress level or confining pressure would cause higher increase rate and the value of shear strain in the process of drying-wetting cycles.At microscopic level,the grayscale value(GSV)of CT scanning image is characterized as the proportion of soil particles to voids.A fabric state parameter is proposed to characterize soil microstructures under the influence of stress and drying-wetting cycle.Test results indicate that the macroand micro-responses show high consistence and relevance.The stress and drying-wetting cycles would both induce collapse of the soil microstructure,which dominants degradation of the soil mechanical properties.The evolution of the macro-mechanical property of soil exhibits a positive linear relationship with the micro-evolution of the fabric state parameter.展开更多
Wildfires significantly disrupt the physical and hydrologic conditions of the environment,leading to vegetation loss and altered surface geo-material properties.These complex dynamics promote post-fire gully erosion,y...Wildfires significantly disrupt the physical and hydrologic conditions of the environment,leading to vegetation loss and altered surface geo-material properties.These complex dynamics promote post-fire gully erosion,yet the key conditioning factors(e.g.,topography,hydrology)remain insufficiently understood.This study proposes a novel artificial intelligence(AI)framework that integrates four machine learning(ML)models with Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP)method,offering a hierarchical perspective from global to local on the dominant factors controlling gully distribution in wildfireaffected areas.In a case study of Xiangjiao catchment burned on March 28,2020,in Muli County in Sichuan Province of Southwest China,we derived 21 geoenvironmental factors to assess the susceptibility of post-fire gully erosion using logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF),and convolutional neural network(CNN)models.SHAP-based model interpretation revealed eight key conditioning factors:topographic position index(TPI),topographic wetness index(TWI),distance to stream,mean annual precipitation,differenced normalized burn ratio(d NBR),land use/cover,soil type,and distance to road.Comparative model evaluation demonstrated that reduced-variable models incorporating these dominant factors achieved accuracy comparable to that of the initial-variable models,with AUC values exceeding 0.868 across all ML algorithms.These findings provide critical insights into gully erosion behavior in wildfire-affected areas,supporting the decision-making process behind environmental management and hazard mitigation.展开更多
River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by gen...River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by generations of water resources professionals.Rooted in river ecology,it offers a framework for advancing modern water governance systems and capabilities.This paper examines eight dimensions of river ethics to provide actionable recommendations:enhancing knowledge systems on water,rivers,and lakes;addressing critical challenges in water governance to strengthen the foundational role of water authorities in ensuring water security,resource management,ecological sustainability and environmental protection;optimizing water project planning to mitigate ecological impacts;ensuring high standards in the lifecycle management of water projects;refining water diversion strategies for precise scheduling;utilizing ecosystem complexity for river and lake restoration;implementing tiered management of water-related disasters;and driving reforms to modernize water governance systems and mechanisms.展开更多
Different slope geohazards have different causal mechanisms.This study aims to propose a method to investigate the decision-making mechanisms for the susceptibility of different slope geohazards.The study includes a g...Different slope geohazards have different causal mechanisms.This study aims to propose a method to investigate the decision-making mechanisms for the susceptibility of different slope geohazards.The study includes a geospatial dataset consisting of 1203 historical slope geohazard units,including slope creeps,shallow slides,rockfalls and debris flows,and 584 non-geohazard units,and 22 initial condition factors.Following a 7:3 ratio,the data were randomly divided into a test set and a training set,and an ensemble SMOTE-RF-SHAP model was constructed.The performance and generalization ability of the model were evaluated by confusion matrix and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)for the four types of geohazards.The decision-making mechanism of different geohazards was then identified and investigated using the Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)model.The results show that the hybrid optimization improves the overall accuracy of the model from 0.486 to 0.831,with significant improvements in the prediction accuracy for all four types of slope geohazards,as well as reductions in misclassification and omission rates.Furthermore,this study reveals that the main influencing factors and spatiotemporal distribution of different slope geohazards exhibit high similarity,while the impacts of individual factors and different factor values on different slope geohazards demonstrate significant differences.For example,prolonged continuous rainfall can erode rock masses and lead to slope creep,increased rainfall may trigger shallow mountain landslides,and sudden surface runoff can even cause debris flows.These findings have important practical implications for slope geohazards risk management.展开更多
The flow field characteristics of the conduit-matrix system(CMS)have consistently been a primary area of interest to researchers.However,under the long-term influence of water flow,the hydraulic conductivity of the ma...The flow field characteristics of the conduit-matrix system(CMS)have consistently been a primary area of interest to researchers.However,under the long-term influence of water flow,the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix surrounding the conduit often deforms differentially along the conduit axis,resulting in the development of a conduit-multilayer matrix system(CMMS).This renders conventional models inadequate in accurately describing the flow field characteristics of CMMS.In this study,a semi-analytical model with second-order accuracy is developed to investigate the velocity profile characteristics of CMMS by coupling the Navier-Stokes(N–S)equations in the conduit and the Darcy-Brinkman(D-B)equation in the multilayer matrices.In this model,the interface between the conduit and the matrix satisfies the velocity continuity and stress jumping condition.In contrast,different matrix interfaces require both velocity and stress to be equal.The model's validity is verified through Lattice Boltzmann Method(LBM)simulation,COMSOL simulation,and experimental data under different conduit apertures,matrix region numbers,and matrix permeability characteristics.Moreover,the current model predicts discharges with higher accuracy than the Hagen-Poiseuille law and Darcy's law(the maximum error between the present model and the test is 7.24%).Furthermore,the existing Poiseuille's law,conduit-matrix model,and conduit-matrix1-matrix2 model are all special cases of the current semi-analytical model,thereby indicating its broader applicability.Sensitivity results reveal that the flow velocities in the surrounding matrix and the conduit regions also increase when the permeability of the matrix in proximity to the conduit increases.Additionally,as the stress jumping coefficient at the interface approaches zero,the transition from free flow to seepage becomes smoother.展开更多
Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approache...Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approaches remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, in this paper, a multistage rock mass parameterback-analysis method, that considers the construction process and displacement losses is proposed andimplemented through the coupling of numerical simulation, auto-machine learning (AutoML), andmulti-objective optimization algorithms (MOOAs). First, a parametric modeling platform for mechanizedtwin tunnels is developed, generating a dataset through extensive numerical simulations. Next, theAutoML method is utilized to establish a surrogate model linking rock parameters and displacements.The tunnel construction process is divided into multiple stages, transforming the rock mass parameterback-analysis into a multi-objective optimization problem, for which multi-objective optimization algorithmsare introduced to obtain the rock mass parameters. The newly proposed rock mass parameterback-analysis method is validated in a mechanized twin tunnel project, and its accuracy and effectivenessare demonstrated. Compared with traditional single-stage back-analysis methods, the proposedmodel decreases the average absolute percentage error from 12.73% to 4.34%, significantly improving theaccuracy of the back-analysis. Moreover, although the accuracy of back analysis significantly increaseswith the number of construction stages considered, the back analysis time is acceptable. This studyprovides a new method for displacement back analysis that is efficient and accurate, thereby paving theway for precise parameter determination in numerical simulations.展开更多
Foam plays a crucial role in conditioning the mechanical properties of coarse-grained soil during earth pressure balance shield tunneling.Experimental findings have shown that an appropriate foam injection ratio impro...Foam plays a crucial role in conditioning the mechanical properties of coarse-grained soil during earth pressure balance shield tunneling.Experimental findings have shown that an appropriate foam injection ratio improves the workability and compressibility of conditioned soil,while reducing its shear strength under undrained conditions.Understanding how foam operates in soil pores is essential for interpreting these phenomena.This study utilized a theoretical two-dimensional(2D)model to analyze the effects of gas saturation,gas-liquid interface,and gas dissolution on the undrained mechanical properties of foamconditioned soil.Based on these analyses,a constitutive equation was developed,using the transition void ratio,compression index and contact coefficient as key parameters to describe the relationships among vertical stress σ_(v),void ratio e_(c),and shear strengthτ.The undrained mechanical properties calculated by the 2D model align well with experimental observations,indicating that while foam enhances the bonding force between soil particles,both excessive and insufficient gas saturation,along with larger contact angles,notably undermine this enhancement,resulting in unsuitable workability.A gas saturation of 0.5-0.8 is recommended for soil conditioning.Under typical chamber pressures,the effects of gas-liquid interface and gas dissolution on compressibility and shear strength are negligible.The constitutive equation demonstrates excellent agreement with experimental data,and can well predict the variations in σ_(v)-e_(c)-τ.This study contributes to understanding the role of foam in soil pores,and the developed constitutive equation serves as a valuable reference for describing the undrained mechanical behavior of foam-conditioned coarse-grained soil.展开更多
Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecolo...Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecologically sensitive basins.This study systematically interrogates the compounded ramifications of LULC dynamics and projected climate change on the hydrological response of the Upper Jemma Watershed an integral sub-catchment of the Upper Blue Nile River system.Employing the advanced QSWAT+hydrological modeling framework within a GIS interface,the analysis integrates bias‐corrected climatic projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios alongside multi-temporal remote sensing‐derived land cover datasets.The findings unveil an unequivocal intensification of surface runoff and streamflow due to expansive agricultural encroachment,juxtaposed with a discernible decline in evapotranspiration and soil water retention.Climatic perturbations,notably temperature elevation and precipitation attenuation,further exacerbate these trends,with pronounced seasonality in hydrological fluxes.Importantly,synergistic interactions between land cover transformation and climatic anomalies manifest in nonlinear hydrological alterations,amplifying peak flows and diminishing baseflows.This underscores the riverine system's heightened vulnerability and the necessity for integrated watershed management strategies that account for multifactorial hydrological stressors.The study provides a robust empirical and modeling basis to inform adaptive water governance within transboundary river basins susceptible to environmental transitions.展开更多
Lake wetlands play a crucial role as global carbon sinks,significantly contributing to carbon storage and ecological balance.This study estimates the quarterly carbon storage in the Dongting Lake wetland for the years...Lake wetlands play a crucial role as global carbon sinks,significantly contributing to carbon storage and ecological balance.This study estimates the quarterly carbon storage in the Dongting Lake wetland for the years 2010,2015,and 2020,using MODIS remote sensing imagery and the InVEST model.A Structural Equation Model(SEM)was then employed to analyze the driving factors behind changes in carbon storage.Results show that intra-annual carbon storage increases and then decreases,with maximum level in the third quarter(average of 34.242 Tg)and a minimum one in the first quarter(average of 21.435 Tg).From 2010 to 2020,inter-annual carbon storage variations initially exhibited an increasing trend before decreasing,with the peak annual average carbon storage reaching 32.230 Tg in 2015.Notably,the coefficient of variation for intra-annual carbon storage increased from 8.5%in 2010 to 25.8%in 2020.Key driving factors that influence carbon storage changes include surface solar radiation,temperature,and water level,with carbon storage positively correlated with surface solar radiation and temperature,and negatively correlated with water level.These findings reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the Dongting Lake wetland,offering scientific guidance for wetland conservation and regional climate adaptation policies.展开更多
High-steep waste dumps in open-pit mines frequently demonstrate complex particle-size distributions and fractal characteristics along their slopes,which have a significant impact on slope stability.This study takes th...High-steep waste dumps in open-pit mines frequently demonstrate complex particle-size distributions and fractal characteristics along their slopes,which have a significant impact on slope stability.This study takes the Dasuji South waste dump in Inner Mongolia as a case to quantify the fractal dimensions of soil-rock mixtures at various slope heights,and to clarify how these fractal properties govern shear strength and deformation behavior under overlying stress,thereby affecting the overall stability of the waste dump slope.Field sampling and laboratory tests were conducted to determine the particle-size composition and fractal dimensions while direct shear tests were conducted and revealed that lower fractal dimensions indicating coarser particle assemblages significantly enhance shear resistance.Complementary PFC_(2)D discrete element simulations demonstrate that slopes composed of lower-fractaldimension materials deform less and contain localized deformation zones,whereas higher-fractal-dimension slopes experience more extensive displacement and a heightened risk of landslides.These findings refine our understanding of the relationship between fractal grain-size distribution and slope stability,providing a robust theoretical basis for improved stability assessment and optimized support strategies in deep open-pit mining waste dumps,and ultimately aiding in more effective disaster prevention within geotechnical engineering.展开更多
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework...This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.展开更多
In eutrophic shallow lakes,cyanobacterial blooms will occur frequently and then settle into sediment,leading the formation of fluid sediment.Several factors including temperature can influence surface sediment propert...In eutrophic shallow lakes,cyanobacterial blooms will occur frequently and then settle into sediment,leading the formation of fluid sediment.Several factors including temperature can influence surface sediment properties.In this study,the influence of temperatures on surface sediment properties was determined in microcosm experiments through monitoring sediment physicochemical and rheological properties.During one-month incubation,it was found that surface sediment density and water content varied exponentially with increase in temperatures from 10 to 35℃.The results of particle size distribution indicated that cyanobacterial blooms biomass(CBB)degradation in sediment led to sediment flocculation and agglomeration.In themeantime,therewere high ratios polysaccharide/protein in extracellular polymeric substances(EPSs),which enhanced the sediment particle agglomeration.Further,the yield stress in rheological test for sediment with(R^(2)=0.97)and without(R^(2)=0.85)CBB presented an exponential decay with increase in temperatures.And a threshold value at 20℃ for sediment critical shear stress(τ_(cr))indicated that sediment could be resuspended easier when temperature was more than 20℃.Altogether,this study showed that the increase in temperatures with a threshold at 20℃,can cause sediment particle flocculation,resulting in a loose and fragile structure.And the results would be helpful to sediment management considering environmental effects of sediment suspension for eutrophication shallow lakes.展开更多
Wave reflection and refraction in layered media is a topic closely related to seismology,acoustics,geophysics and earthquake engineering.Analytical solutions for wave reflection and refraction coefficients in multi-la...Wave reflection and refraction in layered media is a topic closely related to seismology,acoustics,geophysics and earthquake engineering.Analytical solutions for wave reflection and refraction coefficients in multi-layered media subjected to P wave incidence from the elastic half-space are derived in terms of displacement potentials.The system is composed of ideal fluid,porous medium,and underlying elastic solid.By numerical examples,the effects of porous medium and the incident wave angle on the dynamic pressures of ideal fluid are analyzed.The results show that the existence of the porous medium,especially in the partially saturated case,may significantly affect the dynamic pressures of the overlying fluid.展开更多
Water supply and sanitation demands are foreseen to face enormous challenges over the coming decades to meet the fast growing needs in a global perspective. Significant growth in the industry is predicted and membrane...Water supply and sanitation demands are foreseen to face enormous challenges over the coming decades to meet the fast growing needs in a global perspective. Significant growth in the industry is predicted and membrane separation technologies have been identified as one of the possible solutions to meet future demands. Application and implementation of membrane technology is expected both in production of potable water as well as in treatment of wastewater. In potable water production membranes are substituting conventional separation technologies due to the superior performance, potential for less chemical use and sludge production, as well as the potential to fulfill hygienic barrier requirements. Membrane bio-reactor （MBR） technology is probably the membrane process which has had most success and has the best prospects for the future in wastewater treatment. Trends and developments indicate that this technology is becoming accepted and is rapidly becoming the best available technology for many wastewater treatment applications. A major drawback of MBR systems is membrane fouling. Studies have shown that fouling mitigation in MBR systems can potentially be done by coupling coagulation and flocculation to the process.展开更多
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of th...Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.展开更多
Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data fro...Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.展开更多
基金support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52371279)the Program for International Exchange and Cooperation in Education by the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China(Grant No.57220500123).
文摘Lost circulation of drilling fluid is one of the most common and costly problems in drilling operations.This highlights the importance of wellbore strengthening treatment sthat can utilize lost circulation materials(LCMs)to seal fractures associated with the wellbore.In this work,a numerical model accounting for the deformation of surrounding rock,fluid flow in the fracture,fracture propagation,and the transport of LCMs is presented to investigate the wellbore strengthening,from the fracture initiation to the fracture arrest,due to plugs formed by LCMs.The equations governing the rock deformation and fluid flow are solved by the dual boundary element method and the finite volume method,respectively.The transport of LCMs is solved based on an empirical constitutive model in suspension flow,and several characteristic quantities are derived by dimensional analysis.It is found that two dimensionless parameters,dimensionless toughness and normalized initial particle concentration,control the migration of LCM particles.The numerical results show that the dimensionless toughness influences the entrance and bridging of LCMs while the initial concentration controls the location of the particle bridging.When the initial concentration is larger than 0.8,the particle bridging tends to occur near the fracture entry.Conversely,when the initial concentration is less than 0.8,the particle bridging occurs near the fracture tip.This work provides an effective tool to predict the LCM transport and plugging in the wellbore strengthening process.
基金This work was financially supported by the Trans-Century Training Program Fund for the Talent,Ministry of Education of China.
文摘A hybrid numerical method for the hydraulic modeling of a curtain-walled dissipater of reflected waves from breakwaters is presented. In this method, a zonal approach that combines a nonlinear weakly dispersive wave (Boussinesq-type equation) method and a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) method is used. The Boussinesq-type equation is solved in the far field to describe wave transformation in shallow water. The RANS method is used in die near field to resolve the turbulent boundary layer and vortex flows around the structure. Suitable matching conditions are enforced at the interface between the viscous and the Boussinesq region. The Coupled RANS and Boussinesq method successfully resolves the vortex characteristics of flow in the vicinity of the structure, while unexpected phenomena like wave re-reflection are effectively controlled by lengthening the Boussinesq region. Extensive results on hydraulic performance of a curtain-walled dissipater and the mechanism of dissipation of reflected waves are presented, providing a reference for minimization of die breadth of the water chamber and for determination of the submerged depth of the curtain wall.
文摘Low-head hydraulic turbines are the subjects to individual approach of design. This comes from the fact that hydrological conditions are not of a standard character. Therefore, the design method of the hydraulic turbine stage has a great importance for those who may be interested in such an investment. As a first task in a design procedure the guide vane is considered. The proposed method is based on the solution of the inverse problem within the flame of 2D model. By the inverse problem authors mean a design of the blade shapes for given flow conditions. In the paper analytical solution for the simple cylindrical shape of a guide vane is presented. For the more realistic cases numerical solutions according to the axis-symmetrical model of the flow are also presented. The influence of such parameters as the inclination of trailing edge, the blockage factor due to blade thickness, the influence of loss due to dissipation are shown for the chosen simple geometrical example.
文摘In this study, the goal is to increase the efficiency of a high-pressure hydraulic turbine. The goal is achieved by numerical flow simulation using CFX-TASCflow. This approach reduces costs and time compared to the experimental approach and allows for improving the turbine productivity and its design. The analysis of energy losses in the flow part of the turbine Fr500, as well as the analysis of the influence of the opening of the guide vanes on changes in energy losses. The results showed that the greatest losses occur in the guide vane 3.02% based on the two-dimensional model and 2.5% based on the 3D model, which significantly affects the efficiency. The analysis was carried out using programs for calculating fluid flow in two-dimensional and three-dimensional formulations. With the help of the study, the main energy problem is solved—increasing efficiency.
基金funded by National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3007001)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.8244053)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2024M754065).
文摘The mechanical behavior of cohesive soil is sensitized to drying-wetting cycles under confinements.However,the hydromechanical coupling effect has not been considered in current constitutive models.A macro-micro analysis scheme is proposed in this paper to investigate the soil deformation behavior under the coupling of stress and drying-wetting cycles.A new device is developed based on CT(computerized tomography)workstation to apply certain normal and shear stresses on a soil specimen during drying-wetting cycles.A series of tests are conducted on a type of loess with various coupling of stress paths and drying-wetting cycles.At macroscopic level,stress sensor and laser sensor are used to acquire stress and strain,respectively.The shear and volumetric strain increase during the first few drying-wetting cycles and then become stable.The increase of the shear stress level or confining pressure would cause higher increase rate and the value of shear strain in the process of drying-wetting cycles.At microscopic level,the grayscale value(GSV)of CT scanning image is characterized as the proportion of soil particles to voids.A fabric state parameter is proposed to characterize soil microstructures under the influence of stress and drying-wetting cycle.Test results indicate that the macroand micro-responses show high consistence and relevance.The stress and drying-wetting cycles would both induce collapse of the soil microstructure,which dominants degradation of the soil mechanical properties.The evolution of the macro-mechanical property of soil exhibits a positive linear relationship with the micro-evolution of the fabric state parameter.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377170,42407212)the National Funded Postdoctoral Researcher Program(GZB20230606)+3 种基金the Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China(2024M752679)the Sichuan Natural Science Foundation(2025ZNSFSC1205)the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3005704)the Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program(2024NSFSC0100)。
文摘Wildfires significantly disrupt the physical and hydrologic conditions of the environment,leading to vegetation loss and altered surface geo-material properties.These complex dynamics promote post-fire gully erosion,yet the key conditioning factors(e.g.,topography,hydrology)remain insufficiently understood.This study proposes a novel artificial intelligence(AI)framework that integrates four machine learning(ML)models with Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP)method,offering a hierarchical perspective from global to local on the dominant factors controlling gully distribution in wildfireaffected areas.In a case study of Xiangjiao catchment burned on March 28,2020,in Muli County in Sichuan Province of Southwest China,we derived 21 geoenvironmental factors to assess the susceptibility of post-fire gully erosion using logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF),and convolutional neural network(CNN)models.SHAP-based model interpretation revealed eight key conditioning factors:topographic position index(TPI),topographic wetness index(TWI),distance to stream,mean annual precipitation,differenced normalized burn ratio(d NBR),land use/cover,soil type,and distance to road.Comparative model evaluation demonstrated that reduced-variable models incorporating these dominant factors achieved accuracy comparable to that of the initial-variable models,with AUC values exceeding 0.868 across all ML algorithms.These findings provide critical insights into gully erosion behavior in wildfire-affected areas,supporting the decision-making process behind environmental management and hazard mitigation.
基金Three Gorges Follow-up Work Fund,Grant/Award Number:WE0161A042024National Key Research Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2024YFC3210900。
文摘River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by generations of water resources professionals.Rooted in river ecology,it offers a framework for advancing modern water governance systems and capabilities.This paper examines eight dimensions of river ethics to provide actionable recommendations:enhancing knowledge systems on water,rivers,and lakes;addressing critical challenges in water governance to strengthen the foundational role of water authorities in ensuring water security,resource management,ecological sustainability and environmental protection;optimizing water project planning to mitigate ecological impacts;ensuring high standards in the lifecycle management of water projects;refining water diversion strategies for precise scheduling;utilizing ecosystem complexity for river and lake restoration;implementing tiered management of water-related disasters;and driving reforms to modernize water governance systems and mechanisms.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3007203).
文摘Different slope geohazards have different causal mechanisms.This study aims to propose a method to investigate the decision-making mechanisms for the susceptibility of different slope geohazards.The study includes a geospatial dataset consisting of 1203 historical slope geohazard units,including slope creeps,shallow slides,rockfalls and debris flows,and 584 non-geohazard units,and 22 initial condition factors.Following a 7:3 ratio,the data were randomly divided into a test set and a training set,and an ensemble SMOTE-RF-SHAP model was constructed.The performance and generalization ability of the model were evaluated by confusion matrix and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)for the four types of geohazards.The decision-making mechanism of different geohazards was then identified and investigated using the Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)model.The results show that the hybrid optimization improves the overall accuracy of the model from 0.486 to 0.831,with significant improvements in the prediction accuracy for all four types of slope geohazards,as well as reductions in misclassification and omission rates.Furthermore,this study reveals that the main influencing factors and spatiotemporal distribution of different slope geohazards exhibit high similarity,while the impacts of individual factors and different factor values on different slope geohazards demonstrate significant differences.For example,prolonged continuous rainfall can erode rock masses and lead to slope creep,increased rainfall may trigger shallow mountain landslides,and sudden surface runoff can even cause debris flows.These findings have important practical implications for slope geohazards risk management.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52079068,52090081)the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering(Grant No.2021-KY-04).
文摘The flow field characteristics of the conduit-matrix system(CMS)have consistently been a primary area of interest to researchers.However,under the long-term influence of water flow,the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix surrounding the conduit often deforms differentially along the conduit axis,resulting in the development of a conduit-multilayer matrix system(CMMS).This renders conventional models inadequate in accurately describing the flow field characteristics of CMMS.In this study,a semi-analytical model with second-order accuracy is developed to investigate the velocity profile characteristics of CMMS by coupling the Navier-Stokes(N–S)equations in the conduit and the Darcy-Brinkman(D-B)equation in the multilayer matrices.In this model,the interface between the conduit and the matrix satisfies the velocity continuity and stress jumping condition.In contrast,different matrix interfaces require both velocity and stress to be equal.The model's validity is verified through Lattice Boltzmann Method(LBM)simulation,COMSOL simulation,and experimental data under different conduit apertures,matrix region numbers,and matrix permeability characteristics.Moreover,the current model predicts discharges with higher accuracy than the Hagen-Poiseuille law and Darcy's law(the maximum error between the present model and the test is 7.24%).Furthermore,the existing Poiseuille's law,conduit-matrix model,and conduit-matrix1-matrix2 model are all special cases of the current semi-analytical model,thereby indicating its broader applicability.Sensitivity results reveal that the flow velocities in the surrounding matrix and the conduit regions also increase when the permeability of the matrix in proximity to the conduit increases.Additionally,as the stress jumping coefficient at the interface approaches zero,the transition from free flow to seepage becomes smoother.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52090081,52079068)the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering(Grant No.2021-KY-04).
文摘Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approaches remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, in this paper, a multistage rock mass parameterback-analysis method, that considers the construction process and displacement losses is proposed andimplemented through the coupling of numerical simulation, auto-machine learning (AutoML), andmulti-objective optimization algorithms (MOOAs). First, a parametric modeling platform for mechanizedtwin tunnels is developed, generating a dataset through extensive numerical simulations. Next, theAutoML method is utilized to establish a surrogate model linking rock parameters and displacements.The tunnel construction process is divided into multiple stages, transforming the rock mass parameterback-analysis into a multi-objective optimization problem, for which multi-objective optimization algorithmsare introduced to obtain the rock mass parameters. The newly proposed rock mass parameterback-analysis method is validated in a mechanized twin tunnel project, and its accuracy and effectivenessare demonstrated. Compared with traditional single-stage back-analysis methods, the proposedmodel decreases the average absolute percentage error from 12.73% to 4.34%, significantly improving theaccuracy of the back-analysis. Moreover, although the accuracy of back analysis significantly increaseswith the number of construction stages considered, the back analysis time is acceptable. This studyprovides a new method for displacement back analysis that is efficient and accurate, thereby paving theway for precise parameter determination in numerical simulations.
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51979144)the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering(Grant No.SKLHSE-2024-B-02).
文摘Foam plays a crucial role in conditioning the mechanical properties of coarse-grained soil during earth pressure balance shield tunneling.Experimental findings have shown that an appropriate foam injection ratio improves the workability and compressibility of conditioned soil,while reducing its shear strength under undrained conditions.Understanding how foam operates in soil pores is essential for interpreting these phenomena.This study utilized a theoretical two-dimensional(2D)model to analyze the effects of gas saturation,gas-liquid interface,and gas dissolution on the undrained mechanical properties of foamconditioned soil.Based on these analyses,a constitutive equation was developed,using the transition void ratio,compression index and contact coefficient as key parameters to describe the relationships among vertical stress σ_(v),void ratio e_(c),and shear strengthτ.The undrained mechanical properties calculated by the 2D model align well with experimental observations,indicating that while foam enhances the bonding force between soil particles,both excessive and insufficient gas saturation,along with larger contact angles,notably undermine this enhancement,resulting in unsuitable workability.A gas saturation of 0.5-0.8 is recommended for soil conditioning.Under typical chamber pressures,the effects of gas-liquid interface and gas dissolution on compressibility and shear strength are negligible.The constitutive equation demonstrates excellent agreement with experimental data,and can well predict the variations in σ_(v)-e_(c)-τ.This study contributes to understanding the role of foam in soil pores,and the developed constitutive equation serves as a valuable reference for describing the undrained mechanical behavior of foam-conditioned coarse-grained soil.
文摘Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecologically sensitive basins.This study systematically interrogates the compounded ramifications of LULC dynamics and projected climate change on the hydrological response of the Upper Jemma Watershed an integral sub-catchment of the Upper Blue Nile River system.Employing the advanced QSWAT+hydrological modeling framework within a GIS interface,the analysis integrates bias‐corrected climatic projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios alongside multi-temporal remote sensing‐derived land cover datasets.The findings unveil an unequivocal intensification of surface runoff and streamflow due to expansive agricultural encroachment,juxtaposed with a discernible decline in evapotranspiration and soil water retention.Climatic perturbations,notably temperature elevation and precipitation attenuation,further exacerbate these trends,with pronounced seasonality in hydrological fluxes.Importantly,synergistic interactions between land cover transformation and climatic anomalies manifest in nonlinear hydrological alterations,amplifying peak flows and diminishing baseflows.This underscores the riverine system's heightened vulnerability and the necessity for integrated watershed management strategies that account for multifactorial hydrological stressors.The study provides a robust empirical and modeling basis to inform adaptive water governance within transboundary river basins susceptible to environmental transitions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42272291,No.42077176)the Strategic Research Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42242202).
文摘Lake wetlands play a crucial role as global carbon sinks,significantly contributing to carbon storage and ecological balance.This study estimates the quarterly carbon storage in the Dongting Lake wetland for the years 2010,2015,and 2020,using MODIS remote sensing imagery and the InVEST model.A Structural Equation Model(SEM)was then employed to analyze the driving factors behind changes in carbon storage.Results show that intra-annual carbon storage increases and then decreases,with maximum level in the third quarter(average of 34.242 Tg)and a minimum one in the first quarter(average of 21.435 Tg).From 2010 to 2020,inter-annual carbon storage variations initially exhibited an increasing trend before decreasing,with the peak annual average carbon storage reaching 32.230 Tg in 2015.Notably,the coefficient of variation for intra-annual carbon storage increased from 8.5%in 2010 to 25.8%in 2020.Key driving factors that influence carbon storage changes include surface solar radiation,temperature,and water level,with carbon storage positively correlated with surface solar radiation and temperature,and negatively correlated with water level.These findings reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the Dongting Lake wetland,offering scientific guidance for wetland conservation and regional climate adaptation policies.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFC2909500)State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Construction and Healthy Operation and Maintenance of Deep Underground Engineering(SDGZ2505)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377148)。
文摘High-steep waste dumps in open-pit mines frequently demonstrate complex particle-size distributions and fractal characteristics along their slopes,which have a significant impact on slope stability.This study takes the Dasuji South waste dump in Inner Mongolia as a case to quantify the fractal dimensions of soil-rock mixtures at various slope heights,and to clarify how these fractal properties govern shear strength and deformation behavior under overlying stress,thereby affecting the overall stability of the waste dump slope.Field sampling and laboratory tests were conducted to determine the particle-size composition and fractal dimensions while direct shear tests were conducted and revealed that lower fractal dimensions indicating coarser particle assemblages significantly enhance shear resistance.Complementary PFC_(2)D discrete element simulations demonstrate that slopes composed of lower-fractaldimension materials deform less and contain localized deformation zones,whereas higher-fractal-dimension slopes experience more extensive displacement and a heightened risk of landslides.These findings refine our understanding of the relationship between fractal grain-size distribution and slope stability,providing a robust theoretical basis for improved stability assessment and optimized support strategies in deep open-pit mining waste dumps,and ultimately aiding in more effective disaster prevention within geotechnical engineering.
文摘This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52209102 and U2240208)the Doctoral Program of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Jiangsu Province(No.JSSCBS20211393)+1 种基金the Scientific Instrument Developing Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.YJKYYQ20190050)the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiang Province,China(No.BK20220043).
文摘In eutrophic shallow lakes,cyanobacterial blooms will occur frequently and then settle into sediment,leading the formation of fluid sediment.Several factors including temperature can influence surface sediment properties.In this study,the influence of temperatures on surface sediment properties was determined in microcosm experiments through monitoring sediment physicochemical and rheological properties.During one-month incubation,it was found that surface sediment density and water content varied exponentially with increase in temperatures from 10 to 35℃.The results of particle size distribution indicated that cyanobacterial blooms biomass(CBB)degradation in sediment led to sediment flocculation and agglomeration.In themeantime,therewere high ratios polysaccharide/protein in extracellular polymeric substances(EPSs),which enhanced the sediment particle agglomeration.Further,the yield stress in rheological test for sediment with(R^(2)=0.97)and without(R^(2)=0.85)CBB presented an exponential decay with increase in temperatures.And a threshold value at 20℃ for sediment critical shear stress(τ_(cr))indicated that sediment could be resuspended easier when temperature was more than 20℃.Altogether,this study showed that the increase in temperatures with a threshold at 20℃,can cause sediment particle flocculation,resulting in a loose and fragile structure.And the results would be helpful to sediment management considering environmental effects of sediment suspension for eutrophication shallow lakes.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant No.50309005National Key Basic Research and Development Program Under Grant No.2002CB412709
文摘Wave reflection and refraction in layered media is a topic closely related to seismology,acoustics,geophysics and earthquake engineering.Analytical solutions for wave reflection and refraction coefficients in multi-layered media subjected to P wave incidence from the elastic half-space are derived in terms of displacement potentials.The system is composed of ideal fluid,porous medium,and underlying elastic solid.By numerical examples,the effects of porous medium and the incident wave angle on the dynamic pressures of ideal fluid are analyzed.The results show that the existence of the porous medium,especially in the partially saturated case,may significantly affect the dynamic pressures of the overlying fluid.
文摘Water supply and sanitation demands are foreseen to face enormous challenges over the coming decades to meet the fast growing needs in a global perspective. Significant growth in the industry is predicted and membrane separation technologies have been identified as one of the possible solutions to meet future demands. Application and implementation of membrane technology is expected both in production of potable water as well as in treatment of wastewater. In potable water production membranes are substituting conventional separation technologies due to the superior performance, potential for less chemical use and sludge production, as well as the potential to fulfill hygienic barrier requirements. Membrane bio-reactor （MBR） technology is probably the membrane process which has had most success and has the best prospects for the future in wastewater treatment. Trends and developments indicate that this technology is becoming accepted and is rapidly becoming the best available technology for many wastewater treatment applications. A major drawback of MBR systems is membrane fouling. Studies have shown that fouling mitigation in MBR systems can potentially be done by coupling coagulation and flocculation to the process.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, No.2005CB422006 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90202012 No.40561002
文摘Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB957704) Marine Public Welfare Program of China (Grant No. 201305003)
文摘Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.
