Sensitivity of observational data is important in the study of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment(GIA).However,depending on whether sensitivity is used for the Inverse Problem or the Forward Problem,the final formulation an...Sensitivity of observational data is important in the study of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment(GIA).However,depending on whether sensitivity is used for the Inverse Problem or the Forward Problem,the final formulation and display of the sensitivity kernel will be different.Unfortunately,in the past,both perspectives give the same name to their quantity computed/displayed,and that has caused some confusion.To distinguish between the two,their perspective should be added to the names.This paper focuses only on the perspective of the Forward Problem where the input parameters are known.The Perturbation method has been successfully used in the computation of the sensitivity kernels of observations on 1D and 3D viscosity variations from the Forward perspective.One aim of this paper is to review and clarify the physics of the Perturbation method and bring out some important aspects of this method that have been misunderstood or neglected.Another aim is to present sensitivity kernels from the Perturbation method using 3D(both radially and laterally heterogeneous)Earth models with realistic ice history.These new results are now suitable for future comparison with those from new methods using the Forward perspective.Finally,the sensitivity computations for realistic ice histories on a 3D Earth is reviewed and used to search for optimal locations of new GIA observations.展开更多
An MW6.0 earthquake struck Jishishan County in Linxia Prefecture,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023.In this research,Sentinel-1A satellite radar observations were used to obtain the field of coseismic deformation of t...An MW6.0 earthquake struck Jishishan County in Linxia Prefecture,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023.In this research,Sentinel-1A satellite radar observations were used to obtain the field of coseismic deformation of the Jishishan earthquake in 2023,and the geometric and fine slip distribution of the seismogenic fault were inverted using this as a constraint.The results show that the earthquake is characterized by thrust movement.The coseismic slip distribution results show that the maximum slip of this earthquake is 0.3 m.The Coulomb stress distribution shows that the whole section of the southern edge of Lajishan fault,the NWW trending segment of the northern edge of Lajishan fault and its NNW trending segment to the south of the epicenter,the northern edge of the West Qinling fault and the segment to the east of the epicenter of the Daotanghe Linxia fault are under stress loading,which indicates an increase in the potential risk of earthquakes.This research discussed the seismogenic characteristics of earthquakes and the tendency of faults.We speculate that the Jishishan earthquake is the result of the joint action of regional faults and tectonic stress.Based on the observation of seismic data,geodesy,and other geological and geophysical data,we believe that the earthquake was caused by the activation of weak areas under the crust by the local stress from the driving mechanism of the northeast expansion of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The seismogenic fault of this earthquake is more likely to be northeast dipping under the comprehensive consideration of various factors,which occurred on the concealed fault belonging to the eastern edge of the Jishishan fault zone.展开更多
This paper presents a prospective forecast of the locations of the next M_(W)≥6.5 earthquakes in California and Nevada based on the locations and rates of occurrence of M≥4.0 earthquakes during the past 30 years,cal...This paper presents a prospective forecast of the locations of the next M_(W)≥6.5 earthquakes in California and Nevada based on the locations and rates of occurrence of M≥4.0 earthquakes during the past 30 years,called here preshocks.The time period of the forecast is arbitrarily set at 33 years.The forecast faults are the Anza section of the San Jacinto Fault,the Calaveras Fault,the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault,the Maacama Fault,the San Bernardino section of the San Jacinto Fault,and the southern San Andreas Fault,all strike-slip faults in California,and the normal-faulting Wassuk Range Fault in Nevada.The suspected preshocks have occurred randomly along the expected future fault ruptures at rates of at least 0.5 events per year.The temporal history of preshocks for past M≥6.5 earthquakes in California do not indicate when the future mainshock will occur.Outside of California,preshock activity was observed before the 2016 M_(W)7.0 Kumamoto,Japan earthquake,the 2023 M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquake,and the 2017 M_(W)6.5 Jiuzhaigou,China earthquake,all strikeslip events,as well as the 2008 M_(W)7.9 Wenchuan,China thrust earthquake.The two mainshocks in China had preshock rates less than 0.5 events per year.By publishing this spatial earthquake forecast,seismologists in the future can evaluate whether or not this forecast was a total success,a total failure,or a partial success.The probability of just one of the forecast events actually taking place during the forecast time period is less than 2%.展开更多
Determining the rupture directivity for small earthquakes is challenging due to the small source dimension and limited resolution of far-field observations.In recent years,the burst of near-source observations provide...Determining the rupture directivity for small earthquakes is challenging due to the small source dimension and limited resolution of far-field observations.In recent years,the burst of near-source observations provides great opportunities to study earthquake rupture.Here we present the rapid determination of the rupture directivity for the 2024 Feidong M4.7 earthquake using only one strong motion station located 4 km from the epicenter.We find that the polarization of S waves evolves during the rupture,indicating an azimuth change during the rupture propagation.Through comparing the data with the synthetic waveforms,we infer that the M4.7 event propagated dominantly to the southwest on the dextral Tanlu fault.Our inference is further validated through comparing the data with records at local stations for M3 earthquakes in the Feidong sequence.Our study highlights the superior application of near-source observations in earthquake source studies.展开更多
Dilatancy is referred to the phenomenon of volume increase that occurs when a material is deformed.Dilatancy theory originated in geomechanics for the study of the behavior of granular materials.Later it is expanded t...Dilatancy is referred to the phenomenon of volume increase that occurs when a material is deformed.Dilatancy theory originated in geomechanics for the study of the behavior of granular materials.Later it is expanded to the case of more brittle materials like rocks when it is subjected to the load of varying effective stress and starts to crack and deform,then named the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis.This hypothesis was developed to explain the changes in rock volume and pore pressure that occur prior to and during fault slip,which can influence earthquake dynamics.Dilatancy-fluid diffusion is a significant concept in understanding the seismogenic process and has served as the major theoretical pillar for earthquake prediction by its classic definition.This paper starts with the recount of fundamental laboratory experiments on granular materials and rocks,then conducts review and examination of the history for using the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis to interpret the‘prediction’of the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake and other events.The Haicheng Earthquake is the first significant event to be interpreted with the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis in the world.As one pivotal figure in the development of the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis for earthquake prediction Professor Amos Nur of Stanford University worked tirelessly to attract societal attention to this important scientific and humanistic issue.As a deterministic physical model the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis intrinsically bears the deficit to interpret the stochastic seismogenic process.With the emergence of deep learning and its successful applications to many science and technology fields,we may see a possibility to overcome the shortcoming of the current state of the theory with the addition of empirical statistics to push the operational earthquake forecasting approach with the addition of the physicallyinformed neural networks which adopt the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis as one of its embedded physical relations,to uplift the seismic risk reduction to a new level for saving lives and reducing the losses.展开更多
The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and the...The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and thermal reservoirs.However,they are increasingly vulnerable to warming and greenhouse gas emissions.展开更多
Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthqua...Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthquake catalog and source parameters of the 2016 Yunlong foreshocks,and discuss the implications for the nucleation processes of the earthquake in western Yunnan,China.By using the matched filter detection,we identify 343 foreshocks with a magnitude of -0.8-4.5,starting with a magnitude 1.0 foreshock approximately 3 months before the 2016 M_(S)5.1 Yunlong mainshock.The spatial distribution of foreshocks doesn’t show localization or directional migration towards the mainshock.Coulomb stress analysis suggests a positive stress perturbation at the mainshock nucleate area.These observations indicate a cascade-triggering mechanism of the 2016 Yunlong earthquakes.We further collect published catalogs of 2021 Yangbi and 2017 Yangbi foreshocks in the adjacent area,and analyze the temporal changes in b values.The temporal changes in b values reveal precursory drops before the mainshocks.展开更多
Litter decomposition is an essential ecosystem process influenced by multiple factors,including substrate quality,climate,edaphic environment,and decomposer communities.However,the role of canopy species identity and ...Litter decomposition is an essential ecosystem process influenced by multiple factors,including substrate quality,climate,edaphic environment,and decomposer communities.However,the role of canopy species identity and diversity on leaf litter decomposition in forests remains understudied.By controlling for macroclimate,soil properties,and litter substrate in a mature common garden,we investigated whether a three-month tea bag incubation of standardized green and rooibos tea substrate is driven by canopy tree species characteristics and diversity.Our study hypothesized two primary pathways:a chemical engineering effect,where trees alter soil properties and decomposer communities through litter input,and a physical engineering effect,where tree canopy structure modulates the local microclimate.The results showed that even under uniform macroclimatic and initial soil conditions,mass loss rates varied widely for green tea(27.4%–73.2%)and rooibos tea(6.1%–34.7%),comparable as found in other research between distinct biomes.While substrate quality was the dominant factor,both engineering pathways and,to a minor extent,tree diversity modulated mass losses.For green tea,tree chemical and physical characteristics seemed equally important,while the physical environment showed an increased importance for rooibos.Incubation depth played a key role,where forest floor decomposition rates are more susceptible to temporal climate variations,and soil-layer decomposition rates are less susceptible to climate variations and more determined by tree species identity.Our findings suggest that tea bag experiments focusing solely on topsoil burial may underestimate processes in the forest floor and the mineralorganic boundary layer.This study underscores the critical role of litter substrate quality in decomposition while demonstrating that tree community composition and the associated herbaceous layer,through both chemical and physical engineering pathways,strongly modulate decomposition rates.展开更多
This study investigates the facies development and sedimentology of the Late Permian Chhidru Formation,a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic unit exposed in the Western Salt Range,Potwar Basin,Pakistan.The formation is subd...This study investigates the facies development and sedimentology of the Late Permian Chhidru Formation,a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic unit exposed in the Western Salt Range,Potwar Basin,Pakistan.The formation is subdivided into four lithological units reflecting lateral variability,with thicknesses and lithologies ranging from fossiliferous sandy limestone to interbedded limestone and sandstone.These successions record a depositional shift from a carbonate platform to mixed carbonate-clastic,and ultimately,clastic-dominated environments.Lithostratigraphy suggests deposition on the underlying Wargal Limestone carbonates during a Late Permian sea-level fall on the northwest Indian margin of Gondwana.Similar Permian successions with identical lithological characteristics are documented in the Persian Gulf(Dalan Formation),Arabian Platform(Khuff Formation),and Iran(Nesen and Hambust formations).Petrographic analysis reveals deposition in the distal middle to proximal inner shelf settings of a carbonate-siliciclastic mixed,unrimmed platform.Based on identified foraminiferal assemblages,the Chhidru Formation's age is estimated to range from the late Wuchiapingian to Changhsingian stages of the Lopingian epoch.展开更多
When a porous rock is subjected to overall compressive loading,either increasing pore pressure or decreasing confining pressure could result in rock failure.The stress path and the applied pressure change rate may aff...When a porous rock is subjected to overall compressive loading,either increasing pore pressure or decreasing confining pressure could result in rock failure.The stress path and the applied pressure change rate may affect the initiation and propagation of fractures within brittle materials.Understanding the physical mechanisms leading to failure is crucial for underground engineering applications and geo-energy exploration and storage.We conducted triaxial compression experiments on porous Bentheim sandstone samples at different stress paths and pressure change rates.First,at a constant confining pressure of 35 MPa and pore pressure of 5 MPa,intact cylindrical samples were axially loaded up to about 85%of the peak strength.Subsequently,the axial piston position was fixed,and then either the pore pressure was increased or the confining pressure was decreased at two different rates(0.5 MPa/min or 2 MPa/min),leading to final catastrophic failure.The mechanical results revealed that samples subjected to higher rates of decreasing effective confining pressure exhibited larger stress drop rates,higher slip rates,higher total breakdown work,higher rates of acoustic emissions(AEs)before failure,and higher post-failure AE decay rates.In contrast,the applied stress path did not significantly affect rock failure characteristics.Comparison of located AE events with post-mortem microstructures of deformed samples shows a good agreement.The AE source type determined from the P-wave first-motion polarity shows that shear failure dominated the fracture process when approaching failure.Gutenberg-Richter b-values revealed a significant decrease before failure in all tests.Our results indicate that,in contrast to the stress path,the rate of effective stress change strongly affects fracturing behavior and AE rate changes.展开更多
Large-volume presses(LVPs)are widely utilized in diverse research fields—including high-pressure physics,chemistry,materials science,and Earth and planetary sciences—to investigate the physical and chemical properti...Large-volume presses(LVPs)are widely utilized in diverse research fields—including high-pressure physics,chemistry,materials science,and Earth and planetary sciences—to investigate the physical and chemical properties of materials under extreme high-pressure and hightemperature conditions.A prerequisite for achieving reproducible property measurements is the determination and control of pressure within experimental setups.However,the lack of precise pressure calibration in LVPs hinders the broader application of such devices in ultrahigh-pressure studies.This study employs a suite of standard phase transition-based pressure markers—comprising metallic conductors,semiconductors,and minerals—through both in situ and ex situ identification approaches,to establish pressure calibration curves ranging from 0.4 to>30 GPa for various types of LVP installed at the Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research(HPSTAR),Beijing,including piston–cylinder,cubic,and multi-anvil presses.The results provide a unified and traceable pressure reference for highpressure experiments conducted at HPSTAR,while also offering technical guidance and calibration standards for other researchers utilizing similar LVP systems,thereby enabling more consistent comparison between different laboratories.This work facilitates the advancement of LVP research toward broader applications in higher-pressure regimes.展开更多
The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
Rock damage significantly affects coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)behavior in deep geothermal exploitation through changing thermal and hydrological properties of rocks.For this,a thermo-hydro-mechanical-damage(TH...Rock damage significantly affects coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)behavior in deep geothermal exploitation through changing thermal and hydrological properties of rocks.For this,a thermo-hydro-mechanical-damage(THMD)coupled model was developed to describe the coupling between rock damage and mechanical,fluid flow and heat transfer fields.The model considers rock heterogeneity,and incorporates the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and the maximum tensile stress criterion to evaluate shear and tensile damage.This numerical modeling methodology was first verified against analytical solutions and experimental results,and was then used to simulate the THMD coupling behavior in deep geothermal exploitation.A coupled numerical model was set up to simulate the geothermal fluids extraction and re-injection process in a reservoir at 1 km depth over a 7-year period.Rock damage was found to accelerate the propagation of cold fronts away from the injection well,and have a distinct effect on the performance of geothermal exploitation.When the rock damage was considered,the field injectivity increases by 8.4 times,the range of cooled regions increases by 18.6 times,and the vertical deformation changes by 1.2 times after 7 years of geothermal operations,compared to the scenario where it was not considered.Parametric studies have suggested that thermal contraction dominates the rock damage evolution,and that thermal-induced rock damage only occurs at a sufficiently large temperature difference between fluids injected and the reservoir.This work underscores the importance of accurately accounting for the damage effect on reservoir response during fluid injection activities that cause significant cooling of reservoir rocks.展开更多
Extreme climate events(e.g.,heatwaves and droughts)are becoming increasingly frequent due to global climate change,which inevitably affects tree growth and various other ecological processes.While the impacts of droug...Extreme climate events(e.g.,heatwaves and droughts)are becoming increasingly frequent due to global climate change,which inevitably affects tree growth and various other ecological processes.While the impacts of droughts on these processes have been widely evaluated,the effects of heatwaves on tree growth and soil water content(SWC)remain poorly understood,particularly those related to thinning treatment.In this study,we evaluated the impacts of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave and thinning on forest growth and SWC,as well as assessed how thinning might mitigate the heatwave's impacts in lodgepole pine forests in British Columbia,Canada.We measured meteorological data(air temperature,rainfall,solar radiation(SR),relative humidity(RH),and wind speed(W_(s)),sap flow,SWC,soil temperature(T_(s)),and tree diameters at the breast height(DBH)during the growing season(June–September)in the control(27,000 stems·ha^(-1)),lightly thinned(4,500 stems·ha^(-1)),and heavily thinned(1,100 stems·ha^(-1))experimental plots from 2018 to 2024.We found that thinning persistently and significantly(p<0.05)increased individual tree growth,with the most pronounced effects in the heavily thinned stands.The 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave led to an exceptionally hot growing season,significantly(p<0.05)reducing forest growth and SWC across all plots.Forest growth recovered in 2022 in the thinned plots but remained suppressed in the unthinned plots,suggesting that thinning effectively mitigated the impact of the heatwave on forest growth,while the heatwave's impacts were persistent in the unthinned plots.Our study highlights that thinning is a practical management strategy for improving tree growth and supporting climate change adaptation to extreme climate events.展开更多
Forests are experiencing more frequent and intense wildfires in Canada,which pose considerable threats to water quantity and quality,particularly during the summer low-flow period when water demand is high.While the i...Forests are experiencing more frequent and intense wildfires in Canada,which pose considerable threats to water quantity and quality,particularly during the summer low-flow period when water demand is high.While the impacts of wildfire on hydrology have been widely assessed at the watershed scale,the underlying mechanisms of the responses of summer low flows remain poorly understood.In this study,we employed an integrated research framework that combines hydrometric monitoring with geochemical tracing to evaluate how the 2021 White Rock Lake Wildfire affected summer low flows,and to identify the underlying mechanisms governing these responses in the Okanagan Valley,British Columbia(BC),Canada.We found that(1)summer low flows,represented by Q90(flows exceeded at 90%of the time in summer)significantly increased following the wildfire(p<0.05);(2)summer low flows were primarily regulated by snow water in early summer(July),while dominated by groundwater in late summer(August and September);and(3)enhanced snow water contribution and reduced evapotranspiration(ET)were two primary contributors to the increased summer low flows.Our results provide insights for developing sustainable water management strategies for the region in the context of climate change and increasing forest disturbance.This study also demonstrates that the combination of hydrometric monitoring and geochemical tracing is an effective approach towards uncovering mechanisms that drive low-flow responses.展开更多
Root-inspired anchorage systems in the field of bio-inspired geotechnics are renowned for enhancing the pullout capacity of traditional geotechnical anchorage systems by simulating the morphology and architecture of p...Root-inspired anchorage systems in the field of bio-inspired geotechnics are renowned for enhancing the pullout capacity of traditional geotechnical anchorage systems by simulating the morphology and architecture of plant root systems.However,limited studies have explored their practical applications,particularly in improving slope stability.To fill this gap,this study investigates the reinforcement effect of root-inspired anchors on slope stabilization using transparent soil modeling and 3D-printed anchors,and examines the impact of anchor branching patterns(i.e.branching numbers,branching angle,and branching nodes)on slope bearing capacity,shear band evolution,and temporal and spatial variation of slope deformation.The results show that peak slope bearing capacity increases with branching numbers and branching angles,correlating with the envelope area of the curved shear band.Upper anchors result in step-like deflections in the shear band near the trailing edge,while lower anchors convert the upward concave shear band into an upward convex one,thus increasing the slope bearing capacity.Slope deformation is minimized with intermediate branching parameters,such as a branching number of 4 and a branching angle of 45°.The anchor reinforcement mechanisms,i.e.anchor rod shear resistance,interface friction,anchor pullout capacity,and plate tightening effects,are comprehensively discussed,and the installation effects resulting from compromise slope modeling are identified as the contributors.These findings shed light on the failure process of root-inspired anchors reinforced slopes and provide a preliminary reference for potential applications,especially for the tradeoff between anchor branching,slope deformation,and slope stability.展开更多
Aqueous zinc metal batteries(AZMBs)face significant challenges in achieving reversibility and cycling stability,primarily due to hydrogen evolution reactions(HER)and zinc dendrite growth.In this study,by employing car...Aqueous zinc metal batteries(AZMBs)face significant challenges in achieving reversibility and cycling stability,primarily due to hydrogen evolution reactions(HER)and zinc dendrite growth.In this study,by employing carefully designed cells that approximate the structural characteristics of practical batteries,we revisit this widely held view through in-operando X-ray radiography to examine zinc dendrite formation and HER under nearpractical operating conditions.While conventional understanding emphasizes the severity of these processes,our findings suggest that zinc dendrites and HER are noticeably less pronounced in dense,real-operation configurations compared to modified cells,possibly due to a more uniform electric field and the suppression of triple-phase boundaries.This study indicates that other components,such as degradation at the cathode current collector interface and configuration mismatches within the full cell,may also represent important barriers to the practical application of AZMBs,particularly during the early stages of electrodeposition.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
Global warming and socioeconomic development are expected to exacerbate human exposure to heat stress,but the extent and inequality of such changes remain unclear.Here,we quantified the future population exposure to h...Global warming and socioeconomic development are expected to exacerbate human exposure to heat stress,but the extent and inequality of such changes remain unclear.Here,we quantified the future population exposure to heat stress(PEHS)under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)scenarios using a novel decomposition framework that separates the contributions of climate change,population change,and their interaction.Results show that global PEHS will increase substantially during the 21st century,with low-latitude regions experiencing the largest absolute increases,and high-latitude regions facing the largest relative increases.Globally,projected increases in PEHS under SSP3-7.0 are roughly three times those under SSP1-2.6,with low latitudes contributing about 70%-75%of the global total.SSP1-2.6 most effectively limits future heat exposure,with the highest risks in low-latitude developing regions,underscoring the need for low-emission pathways and targeted population and urbanization management.The findings highlight the urgent need for both climate mitigation and population adaptation strategies to address the growing and uneven heat exposure risks worldwide.展开更多
Many geological and geochemical changes are recorded on Earth between 3 and 2 Ga.Among the more important of these are the following:(1)increasing proportion of basalts with"arc-like"mantle sources;(2)an inc...Many geological and geochemical changes are recorded on Earth between 3 and 2 Ga.Among the more important of these are the following:(1)increasing proportion of basalts with"arc-like"mantle sources;(2)an increasing abundance of basalts derived from enriched(EM)and depleted(DM)mantle sources;(3)onset of a Great Thermal Divergence in the mantle;(4)a decrease in degree of melting of the mantle;(5)beginning of large lateral plate motions;(6)appearance of eclogite inclusions in diamonds;(7)appearance and rapid increase in frequency of collisional orogens;(8)rapid increase in the production rate of continental crust as recorded by zircon age peaks;(9)appearance of ophiolites in the geologic record,and(10)appearance of global LIP(large igneous province)events some of which correlate with global zircon age peaks.All of these changes may be tied directly or indirectly to cooling of Earth's mantle and corresponding changes in convective style and the strength of the lithosphere,and they may record the gradual onset and propagation of plate tectonics around the planet.To further understand the changes that occurred between 3 and 2 Ga,it is necessary to compare rocks,rock associations,tectonics and geochemistry during and between zircon age peaks.Geochemistry of peak and inter-peak basalts and TTGs needs to be evaluated in terms of geodynamic models that predict the existence of an episodic thermal regime between stagnant-lid and plate tectonic regimes in early planetary evolution.展开更多
文摘Sensitivity of observational data is important in the study of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment(GIA).However,depending on whether sensitivity is used for the Inverse Problem or the Forward Problem,the final formulation and display of the sensitivity kernel will be different.Unfortunately,in the past,both perspectives give the same name to their quantity computed/displayed,and that has caused some confusion.To distinguish between the two,their perspective should be added to the names.This paper focuses only on the perspective of the Forward Problem where the input parameters are known.The Perturbation method has been successfully used in the computation of the sensitivity kernels of observations on 1D and 3D viscosity variations from the Forward perspective.One aim of this paper is to review and clarify the physics of the Perturbation method and bring out some important aspects of this method that have been misunderstood or neglected.Another aim is to present sensitivity kernels from the Perturbation method using 3D(both radially and laterally heterogeneous)Earth models with realistic ice history.These new results are now suitable for future comparison with those from new methods using the Forward perspective.Finally,the sensitivity computations for realistic ice histories on a 3D Earth is reviewed and used to search for optimal locations of new GIA observations.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41930101 and 42101096)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2019M660091XB)+8 种基金the Key Research and Development Project of Ecological Civilization Construction in Gansu Province(No.24YFFA054)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(Grant Nos.23JRRA857,23JRRG0015,and 21JR7RA317)the Gansu Province Higher Education Institutions Young Doctor(2024QB-046)the Open Fund of Wuhan,Gravitational Field and Solid Tides,National Field Observation and Research Station(WHYWZ202403)the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center(No.E01Z790201/2021kf07)the Lanzhou Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship(No.2022-RC-73)the Experimental Teaching Reform Project of Lanzhou Jiaotong University(2024002)the Undergraduate Teaching Reform Project of Lanzhou Jiaotong University(JGY202416)"Young Scientific and Technological Talents Supporting Project"Project of Gansu Province(Li Wei)。
文摘An MW6.0 earthquake struck Jishishan County in Linxia Prefecture,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023.In this research,Sentinel-1A satellite radar observations were used to obtain the field of coseismic deformation of the Jishishan earthquake in 2023,and the geometric and fine slip distribution of the seismogenic fault were inverted using this as a constraint.The results show that the earthquake is characterized by thrust movement.The coseismic slip distribution results show that the maximum slip of this earthquake is 0.3 m.The Coulomb stress distribution shows that the whole section of the southern edge of Lajishan fault,the NWW trending segment of the northern edge of Lajishan fault and its NNW trending segment to the south of the epicenter,the northern edge of the West Qinling fault and the segment to the east of the epicenter of the Daotanghe Linxia fault are under stress loading,which indicates an increase in the potential risk of earthquakes.This research discussed the seismogenic characteristics of earthquakes and the tendency of faults.We speculate that the Jishishan earthquake is the result of the joint action of regional faults and tectonic stress.Based on the observation of seismic data,geodesy,and other geological and geophysical data,we believe that the earthquake was caused by the activation of weak areas under the crust by the local stress from the driving mechanism of the northeast expansion of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The seismogenic fault of this earthquake is more likely to be northeast dipping under the comprehensive consideration of various factors,which occurred on the concealed fault belonging to the eastern edge of the Jishishan fault zone.
文摘This paper presents a prospective forecast of the locations of the next M_(W)≥6.5 earthquakes in California and Nevada based on the locations and rates of occurrence of M≥4.0 earthquakes during the past 30 years,called here preshocks.The time period of the forecast is arbitrarily set at 33 years.The forecast faults are the Anza section of the San Jacinto Fault,the Calaveras Fault,the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault,the Maacama Fault,the San Bernardino section of the San Jacinto Fault,and the southern San Andreas Fault,all strike-slip faults in California,and the normal-faulting Wassuk Range Fault in Nevada.The suspected preshocks have occurred randomly along the expected future fault ruptures at rates of at least 0.5 events per year.The temporal history of preshocks for past M≥6.5 earthquakes in California do not indicate when the future mainshock will occur.Outside of California,preshock activity was observed before the 2016 M_(W)7.0 Kumamoto,Japan earthquake,the 2023 M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquake,and the 2017 M_(W)6.5 Jiuzhaigou,China earthquake,all strikeslip events,as well as the 2008 M_(W)7.9 Wenchuan,China thrust earthquake.The two mainshocks in China had preshock rates less than 0.5 events per year.By publishing this spatial earthquake forecast,seismologists in the future can evaluate whether or not this forecast was a total success,a total failure,or a partial success.The probability of just one of the forecast events actually taking place during the forecast time period is less than 2%.
基金Suli Yao is partially supported by a Postdoc Fellowship from Faculty of Science,CUHK.Hongfeng Yang acknowledged the support from National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFF0803202)and HKSAR RGC(No.14308523)Zhigao Yang acknowledged the support from the Earthquake Spark Technology Project(No.XH23051B).
文摘Determining the rupture directivity for small earthquakes is challenging due to the small source dimension and limited resolution of far-field observations.In recent years,the burst of near-source observations provides great opportunities to study earthquake rupture.Here we present the rapid determination of the rupture directivity for the 2024 Feidong M4.7 earthquake using only one strong motion station located 4 km from the epicenter.We find that the polarization of S waves evolves during the rupture,indicating an azimuth change during the rupture propagation.Through comparing the data with the synthetic waveforms,we infer that the M4.7 event propagated dominantly to the southwest on the dextral Tanlu fault.Our inference is further validated through comparing the data with records at local stations for M3 earthquakes in the Feidong sequence.Our study highlights the superior application of near-source observations in earthquake source studies.
基金sponsored by the National Research Foundation of Korea(RS-2023-00220913).
文摘Dilatancy is referred to the phenomenon of volume increase that occurs when a material is deformed.Dilatancy theory originated in geomechanics for the study of the behavior of granular materials.Later it is expanded to the case of more brittle materials like rocks when it is subjected to the load of varying effective stress and starts to crack and deform,then named the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis.This hypothesis was developed to explain the changes in rock volume and pore pressure that occur prior to and during fault slip,which can influence earthquake dynamics.Dilatancy-fluid diffusion is a significant concept in understanding the seismogenic process and has served as the major theoretical pillar for earthquake prediction by its classic definition.This paper starts with the recount of fundamental laboratory experiments on granular materials and rocks,then conducts review and examination of the history for using the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis to interpret the‘prediction’of the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake and other events.The Haicheng Earthquake is the first significant event to be interpreted with the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis in the world.As one pivotal figure in the development of the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis for earthquake prediction Professor Amos Nur of Stanford University worked tirelessly to attract societal attention to this important scientific and humanistic issue.As a deterministic physical model the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis intrinsically bears the deficit to interpret the stochastic seismogenic process.With the emergence of deep learning and its successful applications to many science and technology fields,we may see a possibility to overcome the shortcoming of the current state of the theory with the addition of empirical statistics to push the operational earthquake forecasting approach with the addition of the physicallyinformed neural networks which adopt the dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis as one of its embedded physical relations,to uplift the seismic risk reduction to a new level for saving lives and reducing the losses.
文摘The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and thermal reservoirs.However,they are increasingly vulnerable to warming and greenhouse gas emissions.
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory project(LSKJ202204100)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2344221,92158205,42406064)+2 种基金Hong Kong Research Grant Council Grants(14306122)the Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong Province(tstp20230638)Shandong Province Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project Overseas(2023HWYQ-099).
文摘Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthquake catalog and source parameters of the 2016 Yunlong foreshocks,and discuss the implications for the nucleation processes of the earthquake in western Yunnan,China.By using the matched filter detection,we identify 343 foreshocks with a magnitude of -0.8-4.5,starting with a magnitude 1.0 foreshock approximately 3 months before the 2016 M_(S)5.1 Yunlong mainshock.The spatial distribution of foreshocks doesn’t show localization or directional migration towards the mainshock.Coulomb stress analysis suggests a positive stress perturbation at the mainshock nucleate area.These observations indicate a cascade-triggering mechanism of the 2016 Yunlong earthquakes.We further collect published catalogs of 2021 Yangbi and 2017 Yangbi foreshocks in the adjacent area,and analyze the temporal changes in b values.The temporal changes in b values reveal precursory drops before the mainshocks.
基金funded by the Global PhD Scholarship between KU Leuven and UCLouvain。
文摘Litter decomposition is an essential ecosystem process influenced by multiple factors,including substrate quality,climate,edaphic environment,and decomposer communities.However,the role of canopy species identity and diversity on leaf litter decomposition in forests remains understudied.By controlling for macroclimate,soil properties,and litter substrate in a mature common garden,we investigated whether a three-month tea bag incubation of standardized green and rooibos tea substrate is driven by canopy tree species characteristics and diversity.Our study hypothesized two primary pathways:a chemical engineering effect,where trees alter soil properties and decomposer communities through litter input,and a physical engineering effect,where tree canopy structure modulates the local microclimate.The results showed that even under uniform macroclimatic and initial soil conditions,mass loss rates varied widely for green tea(27.4%–73.2%)and rooibos tea(6.1%–34.7%),comparable as found in other research between distinct biomes.While substrate quality was the dominant factor,both engineering pathways and,to a minor extent,tree diversity modulated mass losses.For green tea,tree chemical and physical characteristics seemed equally important,while the physical environment showed an increased importance for rooibos.Incubation depth played a key role,where forest floor decomposition rates are more susceptible to temporal climate variations,and soil-layer decomposition rates are less susceptible to climate variations and more determined by tree species identity.Our findings suggest that tea bag experiments focusing solely on topsoil burial may underestimate processes in the forest floor and the mineralorganic boundary layer.This study underscores the critical role of litter substrate quality in decomposition while demonstrating that tree community composition and the associated herbaceous layer,through both chemical and physical engineering pathways,strongly modulate decomposition rates.
基金Dr.Stergios D.Zarkogiannis would like to acknowledge UK Research and Innovation Grant(SODIOM)EP/Y004221/1 in supporting the research reported here.
文摘This study investigates the facies development and sedimentology of the Late Permian Chhidru Formation,a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic unit exposed in the Western Salt Range,Potwar Basin,Pakistan.The formation is subdivided into four lithological units reflecting lateral variability,with thicknesses and lithologies ranging from fossiliferous sandy limestone to interbedded limestone and sandstone.These successions record a depositional shift from a carbonate platform to mixed carbonate-clastic,and ultimately,clastic-dominated environments.Lithostratigraphy suggests deposition on the underlying Wargal Limestone carbonates during a Late Permian sea-level fall on the northwest Indian margin of Gondwana.Similar Permian successions with identical lithological characteristics are documented in the Persian Gulf(Dalan Formation),Arabian Platform(Khuff Formation),and Iran(Nesen and Hambust formations).Petrographic analysis reveals deposition in the distal middle to proximal inner shelf settings of a carbonate-siliciclastic mixed,unrimmed platform.Based on identified foraminiferal assemblages,the Chhidru Formation's age is estimated to range from the late Wuchiapingian to Changhsingian stages of the Lopingian epoch.
文摘When a porous rock is subjected to overall compressive loading,either increasing pore pressure or decreasing confining pressure could result in rock failure.The stress path and the applied pressure change rate may affect the initiation and propagation of fractures within brittle materials.Understanding the physical mechanisms leading to failure is crucial for underground engineering applications and geo-energy exploration and storage.We conducted triaxial compression experiments on porous Bentheim sandstone samples at different stress paths and pressure change rates.First,at a constant confining pressure of 35 MPa and pore pressure of 5 MPa,intact cylindrical samples were axially loaded up to about 85%of the peak strength.Subsequently,the axial piston position was fixed,and then either the pore pressure was increased or the confining pressure was decreased at two different rates(0.5 MPa/min or 2 MPa/min),leading to final catastrophic failure.The mechanical results revealed that samples subjected to higher rates of decreasing effective confining pressure exhibited larger stress drop rates,higher slip rates,higher total breakdown work,higher rates of acoustic emissions(AEs)before failure,and higher post-failure AE decay rates.In contrast,the applied stress path did not significantly affect rock failure characteristics.Comparison of located AE events with post-mortem microstructures of deformed samples shows a good agreement.The AE source type determined from the P-wave first-motion polarity shows that shear failure dominated the fracture process when approaching failure.Gutenberg-Richter b-values revealed a significant decrease before failure in all tests.Our results indicate that,in contrast to the stress path,the rate of effective stress change strongly affects fracturing behavior and AE rate changes.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1530402 and U1930401).
文摘Large-volume presses(LVPs)are widely utilized in diverse research fields—including high-pressure physics,chemistry,materials science,and Earth and planetary sciences—to investigate the physical and chemical properties of materials under extreme high-pressure and hightemperature conditions.A prerequisite for achieving reproducible property measurements is the determination and control of pressure within experimental setups.However,the lack of precise pressure calibration in LVPs hinders the broader application of such devices in ultrahigh-pressure studies.This study employs a suite of standard phase transition-based pressure markers—comprising metallic conductors,semiconductors,and minerals—through both in situ and ex situ identification approaches,to establish pressure calibration curves ranging from 0.4 to>30 GPa for various types of LVP installed at the Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research(HPSTAR),Beijing,including piston–cylinder,cubic,and multi-anvil presses.The results provide a unified and traceable pressure reference for highpressure experiments conducted at HPSTAR,while also offering technical guidance and calibration standards for other researchers utilizing similar LVP systems,thereby enabling more consistent comparison between different laboratories.This work facilitates the advancement of LVP research toward broader applications in higher-pressure regimes.
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
基金funded by the Major National Science and Technology Project for Deep Earth of China(Grant No.2024ZD1003805)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52311530070 and 52004015).
文摘Rock damage significantly affects coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)behavior in deep geothermal exploitation through changing thermal and hydrological properties of rocks.For this,a thermo-hydro-mechanical-damage(THMD)coupled model was developed to describe the coupling between rock damage and mechanical,fluid flow and heat transfer fields.The model considers rock heterogeneity,and incorporates the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and the maximum tensile stress criterion to evaluate shear and tensile damage.This numerical modeling methodology was first verified against analytical solutions and experimental results,and was then used to simulate the THMD coupling behavior in deep geothermal exploitation.A coupled numerical model was set up to simulate the geothermal fluids extraction and re-injection process in a reservoir at 1 km depth over a 7-year period.Rock damage was found to accelerate the propagation of cold fronts away from the injection well,and have a distinct effect on the performance of geothermal exploitation.When the rock damage was considered,the field injectivity increases by 8.4 times,the range of cooled regions increases by 18.6 times,and the vertical deformation changes by 1.2 times after 7 years of geothermal operations,compared to the scenario where it was not considered.Parametric studies have suggested that thermal contraction dominates the rock damage evolution,and that thermal-induced rock damage only occurs at a sufficiently large temperature difference between fluids injected and the reservoir.This work underscores the importance of accurately accounting for the damage effect on reservoir response during fluid injection activities that cause significant cooling of reservoir rocks.
基金supported by the British Columbia Ministry of Forces through long-term annual contracts with University of British Columbia(Okanagan)(No.RE25SIR242)the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC),Discovery Grants Program(No.RGPIN-2021-02628)+1 种基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2024M760387)Heilongjiang Postdoctoral Financial Assistance(No.LBH-Z24062)。
文摘Extreme climate events(e.g.,heatwaves and droughts)are becoming increasingly frequent due to global climate change,which inevitably affects tree growth and various other ecological processes.While the impacts of droughts on these processes have been widely evaluated,the effects of heatwaves on tree growth and soil water content(SWC)remain poorly understood,particularly those related to thinning treatment.In this study,we evaluated the impacts of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave and thinning on forest growth and SWC,as well as assessed how thinning might mitigate the heatwave's impacts in lodgepole pine forests in British Columbia,Canada.We measured meteorological data(air temperature,rainfall,solar radiation(SR),relative humidity(RH),and wind speed(W_(s)),sap flow,SWC,soil temperature(T_(s)),and tree diameters at the breast height(DBH)during the growing season(June–September)in the control(27,000 stems·ha^(-1)),lightly thinned(4,500 stems·ha^(-1)),and heavily thinned(1,100 stems·ha^(-1))experimental plots from 2018 to 2024.We found that thinning persistently and significantly(p<0.05)increased individual tree growth,with the most pronounced effects in the heavily thinned stands.The 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave led to an exceptionally hot growing season,significantly(p<0.05)reducing forest growth and SWC across all plots.Forest growth recovered in 2022 in the thinned plots but remained suppressed in the unthinned plots,suggesting that thinning effectively mitigated the impact of the heatwave on forest growth,while the heatwave's impacts were persistent in the unthinned plots.Our study highlights that thinning is a practical management strategy for improving tree growth and supporting climate change adaptation to extreme climate events.
基金the China Scholarship Council(CSC)the Uplifting Reciprocal Research Scholarship Program for sponsoring Shixuan Lyu+1 种基金supported by MITACS Accelerate(No.IT39116)the Okanagan Basin Water Board water conservation and quality improvement grant program。
文摘Forests are experiencing more frequent and intense wildfires in Canada,which pose considerable threats to water quantity and quality,particularly during the summer low-flow period when water demand is high.While the impacts of wildfire on hydrology have been widely assessed at the watershed scale,the underlying mechanisms of the responses of summer low flows remain poorly understood.In this study,we employed an integrated research framework that combines hydrometric monitoring with geochemical tracing to evaluate how the 2021 White Rock Lake Wildfire affected summer low flows,and to identify the underlying mechanisms governing these responses in the Okanagan Valley,British Columbia(BC),Canada.We found that(1)summer low flows,represented by Q90(flows exceeded at 90%of the time in summer)significantly increased following the wildfire(p<0.05);(2)summer low flows were primarily regulated by snow water in early summer(July),while dominated by groundwater in late summer(August and September);and(3)enhanced snow water contribution and reduced evapotranspiration(ET)were two primary contributors to the increased summer low flows.Our results provide insights for developing sustainable water management strategies for the region in the context of climate change and increasing forest disturbance.This study also demonstrates that the combination of hydrometric monitoring and geochemical tracing is an effective approach towards uncovering mechanisms that drive low-flow responses.
基金supported by the High-end Foreign Expert Introduction Program(Grant No.G2022165004L)the Sichuan Transportation Science and Technology Project(Grant No.2018-ZL-01)China Railway 20th Bureau Science and Technology Project(Grant No.YF1900SD07B).
文摘Root-inspired anchorage systems in the field of bio-inspired geotechnics are renowned for enhancing the pullout capacity of traditional geotechnical anchorage systems by simulating the morphology and architecture of plant root systems.However,limited studies have explored their practical applications,particularly in improving slope stability.To fill this gap,this study investigates the reinforcement effect of root-inspired anchors on slope stabilization using transparent soil modeling and 3D-printed anchors,and examines the impact of anchor branching patterns(i.e.branching numbers,branching angle,and branching nodes)on slope bearing capacity,shear band evolution,and temporal and spatial variation of slope deformation.The results show that peak slope bearing capacity increases with branching numbers and branching angles,correlating with the envelope area of the curved shear band.Upper anchors result in step-like deflections in the shear band near the trailing edge,while lower anchors convert the upward concave shear band into an upward convex one,thus increasing the slope bearing capacity.Slope deformation is minimized with intermediate branching parameters,such as a branching number of 4 and a branching angle of 45°.The anchor reinforcement mechanisms,i.e.anchor rod shear resistance,interface friction,anchor pullout capacity,and plate tightening effects,are comprehensively discussed,and the installation effects resulting from compromise slope modeling are identified as the contributors.These findings shed light on the failure process of root-inspired anchors reinforced slopes and provide a preliminary reference for potential applications,especially for the tradeoff between anchor branching,slope deformation,and slope stability.
基金the fundamental Research Funds for the central Universities(x2wjD2240360)for the funding supportMeanwhile,Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EPSRC,EP/V027433/3)+2 种基金UK Research and Innovation(UKRI)under the UK government’s Horizon Europe funding(101077226,EP/Y008707/1)Faraday Institution(EP/S003053/1)Degradation project(FIRG001),Royal Society(IEC\NSFC\233361),QUB Agility Fund and Wright Technology and Research Centre(W-Tech,R5240MEE)Funding from UK aid from the UK Government through the Faraday Institution and the Transforming Energy Access Programme(Grant number FIRG050-Device engineering of Zn-based hybrid micro-flow batteries and by-product H2 collection for Emerging Economies)。
文摘Aqueous zinc metal batteries(AZMBs)face significant challenges in achieving reversibility and cycling stability,primarily due to hydrogen evolution reactions(HER)and zinc dendrite growth.In this study,by employing carefully designed cells that approximate the structural characteristics of practical batteries,we revisit this widely held view through in-operando X-ray radiography to examine zinc dendrite formation and HER under nearpractical operating conditions.While conventional understanding emphasizes the severity of these processes,our findings suggest that zinc dendrites and HER are noticeably less pronounced in dense,real-operation configurations compared to modified cells,possibly due to a more uniform electric field and the suppression of triple-phase boundaries.This study indicates that other components,such as degradation at the cathode current collector interface and configuration mismatches within the full cell,may also represent important barriers to the practical application of AZMBs,particularly during the early stages of electrodeposition.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42271273)Swedish Research Council(VR:2021-02163).
文摘Global warming and socioeconomic development are expected to exacerbate human exposure to heat stress,but the extent and inequality of such changes remain unclear.Here,we quantified the future population exposure to heat stress(PEHS)under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)scenarios using a novel decomposition framework that separates the contributions of climate change,population change,and their interaction.Results show that global PEHS will increase substantially during the 21st century,with low-latitude regions experiencing the largest absolute increases,and high-latitude regions facing the largest relative increases.Globally,projected increases in PEHS under SSP3-7.0 are roughly three times those under SSP1-2.6,with low latitudes contributing about 70%-75%of the global total.SSP1-2.6 most effectively limits future heat exposure,with the highest risks in low-latitude developing regions,underscoring the need for low-emission pathways and targeted population and urbanization management.The findings highlight the urgent need for both climate mitigation and population adaptation strategies to address the growing and uneven heat exposure risks worldwide.
文摘Many geological and geochemical changes are recorded on Earth between 3 and 2 Ga.Among the more important of these are the following:(1)increasing proportion of basalts with"arc-like"mantle sources;(2)an increasing abundance of basalts derived from enriched(EM)and depleted(DM)mantle sources;(3)onset of a Great Thermal Divergence in the mantle;(4)a decrease in degree of melting of the mantle;(5)beginning of large lateral plate motions;(6)appearance of eclogite inclusions in diamonds;(7)appearance and rapid increase in frequency of collisional orogens;(8)rapid increase in the production rate of continental crust as recorded by zircon age peaks;(9)appearance of ophiolites in the geologic record,and(10)appearance of global LIP(large igneous province)events some of which correlate with global zircon age peaks.All of these changes may be tied directly or indirectly to cooling of Earth's mantle and corresponding changes in convective style and the strength of the lithosphere,and they may record the gradual onset and propagation of plate tectonics around the planet.To further understand the changes that occurred between 3 and 2 Ga,it is necessary to compare rocks,rock associations,tectonics and geochemistry during and between zircon age peaks.Geochemistry of peak and inter-peak basalts and TTGs needs to be evaluated in terms of geodynamic models that predict the existence of an episodic thermal regime between stagnant-lid and plate tectonic regimes in early planetary evolution.
