TOPMODEL,a semi-distributed hydrological model,has been widely used.In the process of simulation of the model,Digital Elevation Model(DEM) is used to provide the input data,such as topographic index and distance to th...TOPMODEL,a semi-distributed hydrological model,has been widely used.In the process of simulation of the model,Digital Elevation Model(DEM) is used to provide the input data,such as topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet;thus DEM plays an important role in TOPMODEL.This study aims at examining the impacts of DEM uncertainty on the simulation results of TOPMODEL.In this paper,the effects were evaluated mainly from quantitative and qualitative aspects.Firstly,DEM uncertainty was simulated by using the Monte Carlo method,and for every DEM realization,the topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet were extracted.Secondly,the obtained topographic index and the distance to the drainage outlet were input to the TOPMODEL to simulate seven rain-storm-flood events,and four evaluation indices,such as Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency criterion(EFF),sum of squared residuals over all time steps(SSE),sum of squared log residuals over all time steps(SLE) and sum of absolute errors over all time steps(SAE) were recorded.Thirdly,these four evaluation indices were analyzed in statistical manner(minimum,maximum,range,standard deviation and mean value),and effect of DEM uncertainty on TOPMODEL was quantitatively analyzed.Finally,the simulated hydrographs from TOPMODEL using the original DEM and realizations of DEM were qualitatively evaluated under each flood cases.Results show that the effect of DEM uncertainty on TOPMODEL is inconsiderable and could be ignored in the model’s application.This can be explained by:1) TOPMODEL is not sensitive to the distribution of topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet;2) the distri-bution of topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet are slightly affected by DEM uncertainty.展开更多
The main purpose of this study is to find the awareness level as well as the determinants of awareness on HIV/AIDS among the garments workers in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. To do so, 200 garments workers were interviewed ...The main purpose of this study is to find the awareness level as well as the determinants of awareness on HIV/AIDS among the garments workers in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. To do so, 200 garments workers were interviewed through a structured questionnaire using purposive sampling technique. As the statistical tools, univariate analysis was completed to figure out frequency distribution and the binary logistic regression model was used to predict the probability occurrence of the events by fitting data. The results revealed that the majority of the garments workers (63.5%) are very young (18 - 27 years), almost all (97.5%) are literate and most of them (57.0%) used contraceptives. Importantly, most of the respondents (64.0%) had not participated in any type of seminar or workshop related to HIV/AIDS, though almost all the respondents (84.5%) know HIV is a dangerous and life threatening disease. The logistic regression model identified that respondents' education, contraceptive usage, mass media and HIV workshops have statistically significant positive effects on HIV/AIDS awareness. Various media campaigns are strongly suggested to be increased knowledge and awareness to control the spread of HIV as well as STDs among garments workers in Bangladesh.展开更多
Studies conducted in Africa have demonstrated the existence of a significant association between family environment and the sexual behaviour of adolescents. Generally, empirical studies of this topic are based on pare...Studies conducted in Africa have demonstrated the existence of a significant association between family environment and the sexual behaviour of adolescents. Generally, empirical studies of this topic are based on parental control, and family or conjugal instability and socialization approaches. The objective of this study is to assess the association between family environment and the sexual behaviour of adolescents aged 12 to 19 years. The 2004 National Survey of Adolescents (NSA) in Burkina Faso provides data for studying operationalization. Analyses were bivariate and multivariate. The former were conducted using cross tabulations while the latter used three logistic regression models. Results indicate a significant but low association among family environment variables. Absence of both parents, or a number of individuals under 20 years old higher than the number of adults in a household is not systematically associated with risky sexual behaviour. Parental control was shown to be more discriminating of sexual behaviour of adolescents from Burkina Faso, compared with communication with family members regarding sexuality. Despite current ongoing economic crises and sociocultural mutations in Burkinabe societies, household members and family still play major roles in adolescents’ education. Results reinforce sexual and reproductive health programs where parents and household members are central to strategies.展开更多
We present qualitative data from a study in Ghana （2011）, where the National Health Insurance Scheme （NHIS） was introduced to improve access to health care. In 2011 membership enrolment and retention in the scheme...We present qualitative data from a study in Ghana （2011）, where the National Health Insurance Scheme （NHIS） was introduced to improve access to health care. In 2011 membership enrolment and retention in the scheme was stalling. To obtain better insights into socio-cultural factors that influence utilization of healthcare services and the NHIS this study compared Explanatory Models of healthcare clients with those of primary healthcare providers and the NHIS regarding illness, the need for, the quality of, and the control over heaithcare and health insurance services. We found critical disparities in socio-cultural beliefs and perceptions of healthcare and health insurance between these three stakeholder groups, such as the clients＇ holistic view on illness versus healthcare providers＇ bio-medical view; the clients＇ inter-relational focus in perceiving quality of services versus the providers＇ medical technical focus. These differences are leading to misconceptions, blame practice, poor services, non-adherence and low trust. The findings increase our understanding of clients＇ behavior and that of their service providers. We conclude with key messages for policy leaders and operational managers that can guide them in improving services and facilitating client trust and interest to participate in health insurance and utilize healthcare services.展开更多
The visible and infrared bands of Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） can be used for inland water studies. A method of retrieving water-leaving radiance from TM image over Taihu Lake in Jiangsu Province of China was inves...The visible and infrared bands of Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） can be used for inland water studies. A method of retrieving water-leaving radiance from TM image over Taihu Lake in Jiangsu Province of China was investigated in this article. To estimate water-leaving radiance, atmospheric correction was performed in three visible bands of 485nm, 560nm and 660rim. Rayleigh scattering was computed precisely, and the aerosol contribution was estimated by adopting the clear-water-pixels approach. The clear waters were identified by using the Landsat TM middle-infrared band （2.1 μm）, and the water-leaving radiance of clear water pixels in the green band was estimated by using field data. Aerosol scattering at green band was derived for six points, and interpolated to match the TM image. Assuming the atmospheric correction coefficient was 1.0, the aerosol scattering image at blue and red bands were derived. Based on a simplified atmospheric radiation transfer model, the water-leaving radiance for three visible bands was retrieved. The water-leaving radiance was normalized to make it comparable with that estimated from other remotely sensed data acquired at different times, and under different atmospheric conditions. Additionally, remotely sensed reflectance of water was computed. To evaluate the atmospheric correction method presented in this article, the correlation was analyzed between the corrected remotely sensed data and the measured water parameters based on the retrieval model. The results show that the atmospheric correction method based on the image itself is more effective for the retrieval of water parameters from Landsat TM data than 6S （Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum） code based on standard atmospheric and aerosol models.展开更多
This study aimed to introduce a minimally invasive technique for maxillary sinus floor elevation using the lateral approach(lSFE)and to determine the factors that influence the stability of the grafted area in the sin...This study aimed to introduce a minimally invasive technique for maxillary sinus floor elevation using the lateral approach(lSFE)and to determine the factors that influence the stability of the grafted area in the sinus cavity.Thirty patients(30 implants)treated with lSFE using minimally invasive techniques from 2015 to 2019 were included in the study.Five aspects of the implant(central,mesial,distal,buccal,and palatal bone heights[BHs])were measured using cone-beam computed tomography(CBCT)before implant surgery,immediately after surgery(T0),6 months after surgery(T1),and at the last follow-up visit(T2).Patients’characteristics were collected.A small bone window(height,(4.40±0.74)mm;length,(6.26±1.03)mm)was prepared.No implant failed during the follow-up period(3.67±1.75)years.Three of the 30 implants exhibited perforations.Changes in BH of the five aspects of implants showed strong correlations with each other and BH decreased dramatically before second-stage surgery.Residual bone height(RBH)did not significantly influence BH changes,whereas smoking status and type of bone graft materials were the potentially influential factors.During the approximate three-year observation period,lSFE with a minimally invasive technique demonstrated high implant survival rate and limited bone reduction in grafted area.In conclusion,lSFE using minimally invasive techniques was a viable treatment option.Patients who were nonsmokers and whose sinus cavity was filled with deproteinized bovine bone mineral(DBBM)had significantly limited bone resorption in grafted area.展开更多
The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)global public health emergency,has exposed the fragility of health systems.Access to healthcare became a scarce commodity as healthcare providers and resource-poor populations bec...The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)global public health emergency,has exposed the fragility of health systems.Access to healthcare became a scarce commodity as healthcare providers and resource-poor populations became victims of the novel corona virus.Therefore,this study focuses on Africa’s readiness to integrate telemedicine into the weak health systems and its adoption may help alleviate poor healthcare and poverty after COVID-19.We conducted a narrative review through different search strategies in Scopus on January 20,2021,to identify available literature reporting implementation of various telemedicine modes in Africa from January 1,2011 to December 31,2020.We summarized 54 studies according to geographies,field,and implementation methods.The results show a willingness to adopt telemedicine in the resource-poor settings and hard-to-reach populations,which will bring relief to the inadequate healthcare systems and alleviate poverty of those who feel the burden of healthcare cost the most.With adequate government financing,telemedicine promises to enhance the treating of communicable and non-communicable diseases as well as support health infrastructure.It can also alleviate poverty among vulnerable groups and hard-to-reach communities in Africa with adequate government financing.However,given the lack of funding in Africa,the challenges in implementing telemedicine require global and national strategies before it can yield promising results.This is especially true in regards to alleviating the multidimensionality of poverty in post-COVID-19 Africa.展开更多
Our data analyses show that female older adults in Sri Lanka face significant dis-advantages in disability status compared to their male counterparts.However,their socioeconomic statuses are generally lower than their...Our data analyses show that female older adults in Sri Lanka face significant dis-advantages in disability status compared to their male counterparts.However,their socioeconomic statuses are generally lower than their male counterparts.This is a critical issue,and it is essential for the government and society to ensure that old-age insurance and service programs benefit older women and men equally.Based on empirical data analyses,we projected households,living arrangements,and home-based care needs for disabled older adults in Sri Lanka for the period 2012-2060,using the internationally recognized ProFamy extended cohort-component method/software and conventionally available data.Our projections indicate that home-based care needs for older adults in Sri Lanka will increase substantially due to the inevitable trends of rapid population aging and the sharp rise in the oldest-old popu-lation(aged 80+).Consequently,policy reforms and socioeconomic planning are urgently needed to address the significant challenges posed by these large and rapid increases in care needs.Our projections also show that disabled unmarried elders living alone will increase at a faster rate than those disabled unmarried elders living with children.We suggest that adult children may be encouraged to live with or near their aging parents.Co-residence or proximity can reduce home-based care expendi-tures,improve the well-being and health of elderly parents,and enable them to care for their grandchildren,resulting in“win-win”outcomes.展开更多
Marriage has become less common,while the incidence of divorce has risen in Iran.These have made marriage facilitation and divorce prevention as the cornerstone of population policy.It is clear that prediction of the ...Marriage has become less common,while the incidence of divorce has risen in Iran.These have made marriage facilitation and divorce prevention as the cornerstone of population policy.It is clear that prediction of the incidence of marriage and divorce will help policy makers to design effective interventions.This paper uses the number of marriages and divorces between 1980 and 2017,published by the Statistical Center of Iran,to predict the incidence of marriage and divorce through 2027 at the national level.Given the limitations of common methods,such as ARMAX,ARMA,MR and AR,in predicting time series with abrupt changes,this paper applies a mixed method,which combines the Neural Network and the Wavelet mathematical tools.The comparison between the data and the results obtained from the wavelet-neural network confirms the precision of the model.The precision and validity of the neural-wavelet network model is further confirmed by the fact that it has been able to reduce the mean sum of square of errors to a larger extent than the Neural Network models.The findings show a 3%decrease in the number of marriages,from 704,716 in 2017 to 683,190 in 2027.On the other hand,the number of divorces has increased by 30%,from 181,049 in 2017 to 235,407 in 2027.Thus,the number of divorces per 100 marriages will increase from 25.7 to 34.5 just in a decade,which calls for effective interventions if family formation and consolidation are to be improved in Iran.展开更多
Population aging in the People’s Republic of China(PRC)is mainly due to rapid fertility decline after 1970,a third of which was due to government policy,and the balance to social and economic development.Relaxing fer...Population aging in the People’s Republic of China(PRC)is mainly due to rapid fertility decline after 1970,a third of which was due to government policy,and the balance to social and economic development.Relaxing fertility policies now would probably not have a large effect on fertility,and rising educational attainment may reduce future fertility by 0.3 births per woman.The successes and failures of Euro-pean fertility policies can guide policy.In any case,the PRC’s population will age rapidly,with the old-age dependency ratio(OADR)more than tripling by 2065.This will cause severe fiscal problems for current old-age programs,particularly for pen-sions.The general economic impact will be less severe,as partially offset by rising education and increased capital per worker.Focusing on a particular age,like 65,is a mistake.Health,cognition,and vitality are more important than age itself and these will improve due to past increases in education and better living conditions for children.The retirement age should be raised.One good approach is building auto-matic adjustment mechanisms into old-age programs like pensions.For example,retirement age,taxes,and benefits can be linked to life expectancy and to the OADR as in some European countries.This would increase the labor supply of the elderly and avoid pension-related political problems in the future.展开更多
This study investigates household environmental factors and childhood morbidity in South-western Nigeria. To determine patterns of household environ- mental characteristics in south-western Nigeria, both primary and s...This study investigates household environmental factors and childhood morbidity in South-western Nigeria. To determine patterns of household environ- mental characteristics in south-western Nigeria, both primary and secondary data were employed in the study. The primary data were obtained through in-depth interviews （IDIs） with women of childbearing age who have at least a child within the last 5 years in two randomly selected states, Oyo and Osun states, in south-west Nigeria, while the secondary data were extracted from the 2013 Nigeria Demo- graphic Health Surveys （NDHS） designed to elicit information from 33,385 women of ages between 15 and 49 years in randomly selected households across all the states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital, Abuja. Three remarkable contributions were obtained： （i） the prevalence of childhood disease is high among homes with poor household environmental facilities; （ii） incidence of childhood diseases is greatly influenced by poor toilet facilities, biomass source of cooking fuel and unhealthy type of roofing material; （iii） age of mothers, mothers＇ educational status, wealth index and access to health facility were found to have a significant rela- tionship with childhood diseases. Therefore, it is confirmed that poor household environmental condition and low socio-economic status impede child health in South-western Nigeria.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40171015)
文摘TOPMODEL,a semi-distributed hydrological model,has been widely used.In the process of simulation of the model,Digital Elevation Model(DEM) is used to provide the input data,such as topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet;thus DEM plays an important role in TOPMODEL.This study aims at examining the impacts of DEM uncertainty on the simulation results of TOPMODEL.In this paper,the effects were evaluated mainly from quantitative and qualitative aspects.Firstly,DEM uncertainty was simulated by using the Monte Carlo method,and for every DEM realization,the topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet were extracted.Secondly,the obtained topographic index and the distance to the drainage outlet were input to the TOPMODEL to simulate seven rain-storm-flood events,and four evaluation indices,such as Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency criterion(EFF),sum of squared residuals over all time steps(SSE),sum of squared log residuals over all time steps(SLE) and sum of absolute errors over all time steps(SAE) were recorded.Thirdly,these four evaluation indices were analyzed in statistical manner(minimum,maximum,range,standard deviation and mean value),and effect of DEM uncertainty on TOPMODEL was quantitatively analyzed.Finally,the simulated hydrographs from TOPMODEL using the original DEM and realizations of DEM were qualitatively evaluated under each flood cases.Results show that the effect of DEM uncertainty on TOPMODEL is inconsiderable and could be ignored in the model’s application.This can be explained by:1) TOPMODEL is not sensitive to the distribution of topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet;2) the distri-bution of topographic index and distance to the drainage outlet are slightly affected by DEM uncertainty.
文摘The main purpose of this study is to find the awareness level as well as the determinants of awareness on HIV/AIDS among the garments workers in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. To do so, 200 garments workers were interviewed through a structured questionnaire using purposive sampling technique. As the statistical tools, univariate analysis was completed to figure out frequency distribution and the binary logistic regression model was used to predict the probability occurrence of the events by fitting data. The results revealed that the majority of the garments workers (63.5%) are very young (18 - 27 years), almost all (97.5%) are literate and most of them (57.0%) used contraceptives. Importantly, most of the respondents (64.0%) had not participated in any type of seminar or workshop related to HIV/AIDS, though almost all the respondents (84.5%) know HIV is a dangerous and life threatening disease. The logistic regression model identified that respondents' education, contraceptive usage, mass media and HIV workshops have statistically significant positive effects on HIV/AIDS awareness. Various media campaigns are strongly suggested to be increased knowledge and awareness to control the spread of HIV as well as STDs among garments workers in Bangladesh.
文摘Studies conducted in Africa have demonstrated the existence of a significant association between family environment and the sexual behaviour of adolescents. Generally, empirical studies of this topic are based on parental control, and family or conjugal instability and socialization approaches. The objective of this study is to assess the association between family environment and the sexual behaviour of adolescents aged 12 to 19 years. The 2004 National Survey of Adolescents (NSA) in Burkina Faso provides data for studying operationalization. Analyses were bivariate and multivariate. The former were conducted using cross tabulations while the latter used three logistic regression models. Results indicate a significant but low association among family environment variables. Absence of both parents, or a number of individuals under 20 years old higher than the number of adults in a household is not systematically associated with risky sexual behaviour. Parental control was shown to be more discriminating of sexual behaviour of adolescents from Burkina Faso, compared with communication with family members regarding sexuality. Despite current ongoing economic crises and sociocultural mutations in Burkinabe societies, household members and family still play major roles in adolescents’ education. Results reinforce sexual and reproductive health programs where parents and household members are central to strategies.
文摘We present qualitative data from a study in Ghana （2011）, where the National Health Insurance Scheme （NHIS） was introduced to improve access to health care. In 2011 membership enrolment and retention in the scheme was stalling. To obtain better insights into socio-cultural factors that influence utilization of healthcare services and the NHIS this study compared Explanatory Models of healthcare clients with those of primary healthcare providers and the NHIS regarding illness, the need for, the quality of, and the control over heaithcare and health insurance services. We found critical disparities in socio-cultural beliefs and perceptions of healthcare and health insurance between these three stakeholder groups, such as the clients＇ holistic view on illness versus healthcare providers＇ bio-medical view; the clients＇ inter-relational focus in perceiving quality of services versus the providers＇ medical technical focus. These differences are leading to misconceptions, blame practice, poor services, non-adherence and low trust. The findings increase our understanding of clients＇ behavior and that of their service providers. We conclude with key messages for policy leaders and operational managers that can guide them in improving services and facilitating client trust and interest to participate in health insurance and utilize healthcare services.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40671138)
文摘The visible and infrared bands of Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） can be used for inland water studies. A method of retrieving water-leaving radiance from TM image over Taihu Lake in Jiangsu Province of China was investigated in this article. To estimate water-leaving radiance, atmospheric correction was performed in three visible bands of 485nm, 560nm and 660rim. Rayleigh scattering was computed precisely, and the aerosol contribution was estimated by adopting the clear-water-pixels approach. The clear waters were identified by using the Landsat TM middle-infrared band （2.1 μm）, and the water-leaving radiance of clear water pixels in the green band was estimated by using field data. Aerosol scattering at green band was derived for six points, and interpolated to match the TM image. Assuming the atmospheric correction coefficient was 1.0, the aerosol scattering image at blue and red bands were derived. Based on a simplified atmospheric radiation transfer model, the water-leaving radiance for three visible bands was retrieved. The water-leaving radiance was normalized to make it comparable with that estimated from other remotely sensed data acquired at different times, and under different atmospheric conditions. Additionally, remotely sensed reflectance of water was computed. To evaluate the atmospheric correction method presented in this article, the correlation was analyzed between the corrected remotely sensed data and the measured water parameters based on the retrieval model. The results show that the atmospheric correction method based on the image itself is more effective for the retrieval of water parameters from Landsat TM data than 6S （Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum） code based on standard atmospheric and aerosol models.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(81970986,81771125)Exploration and R&D Project of West China Hospital of Stomatology(LCYJ2020-DC-1)+1 种基金Sichuan University Postdoctoral Innovation Fund(2023SCU12040)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project(2022TQ0222).
文摘This study aimed to introduce a minimally invasive technique for maxillary sinus floor elevation using the lateral approach(lSFE)and to determine the factors that influence the stability of the grafted area in the sinus cavity.Thirty patients(30 implants)treated with lSFE using minimally invasive techniques from 2015 to 2019 were included in the study.Five aspects of the implant(central,mesial,distal,buccal,and palatal bone heights[BHs])were measured using cone-beam computed tomography(CBCT)before implant surgery,immediately after surgery(T0),6 months after surgery(T1),and at the last follow-up visit(T2).Patients’characteristics were collected.A small bone window(height,(4.40±0.74)mm;length,(6.26±1.03)mm)was prepared.No implant failed during the follow-up period(3.67±1.75)years.Three of the 30 implants exhibited perforations.Changes in BH of the five aspects of implants showed strong correlations with each other and BH decreased dramatically before second-stage surgery.Residual bone height(RBH)did not significantly influence BH changes,whereas smoking status and type of bone graft materials were the potentially influential factors.During the approximate three-year observation period,lSFE with a minimally invasive technique demonstrated high implant survival rate and limited bone reduction in grafted area.In conclusion,lSFE using minimally invasive techniques was a viable treatment option.Patients who were nonsmokers and whose sinus cavity was filled with deproteinized bovine bone mineral(DBBM)had significantly limited bone resorption in grafted area.
文摘The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)global public health emergency,has exposed the fragility of health systems.Access to healthcare became a scarce commodity as healthcare providers and resource-poor populations became victims of the novel corona virus.Therefore,this study focuses on Africa’s readiness to integrate telemedicine into the weak health systems and its adoption may help alleviate poor healthcare and poverty after COVID-19.We conducted a narrative review through different search strategies in Scopus on January 20,2021,to identify available literature reporting implementation of various telemedicine modes in Africa from January 1,2011 to December 31,2020.We summarized 54 studies according to geographies,field,and implementation methods.The results show a willingness to adopt telemedicine in the resource-poor settings and hard-to-reach populations,which will bring relief to the inadequate healthcare systems and alleviate poverty of those who feel the burden of healthcare cost the most.With adequate government financing,telemedicine promises to enhance the treating of communicable and non-communicable diseases as well as support health infrastructure.It can also alleviate poverty among vulnerable groups and hard-to-reach communities in Africa with adequate government financing.However,given the lack of funding in Africa,the challenges in implementing telemedicine require global and national strategies before it can yield promising results.This is especially true in regards to alleviating the multidimensionality of poverty in post-COVID-19 Africa.
基金supported by the Asian Development Bank and by the grant awarded by the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China under grant Sect.2 of the Collaborative Program between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).
文摘Our data analyses show that female older adults in Sri Lanka face significant dis-advantages in disability status compared to their male counterparts.However,their socioeconomic statuses are generally lower than their male counterparts.This is a critical issue,and it is essential for the government and society to ensure that old-age insurance and service programs benefit older women and men equally.Based on empirical data analyses,we projected households,living arrangements,and home-based care needs for disabled older adults in Sri Lanka for the period 2012-2060,using the internationally recognized ProFamy extended cohort-component method/software and conventionally available data.Our projections indicate that home-based care needs for older adults in Sri Lanka will increase substantially due to the inevitable trends of rapid population aging and the sharp rise in the oldest-old popu-lation(aged 80+).Consequently,policy reforms and socioeconomic planning are urgently needed to address the significant challenges posed by these large and rapid increases in care needs.Our projections also show that disabled unmarried elders living alone will increase at a faster rate than those disabled unmarried elders living with children.We suggest that adult children may be encouraged to live with or near their aging parents.Co-residence or proximity can reduce home-based care expendi-tures,improve the well-being and health of elderly parents,and enable them to care for their grandchildren,resulting in“win-win”outcomes.
文摘Marriage has become less common,while the incidence of divorce has risen in Iran.These have made marriage facilitation and divorce prevention as the cornerstone of population policy.It is clear that prediction of the incidence of marriage and divorce will help policy makers to design effective interventions.This paper uses the number of marriages and divorces between 1980 and 2017,published by the Statistical Center of Iran,to predict the incidence of marriage and divorce through 2027 at the national level.Given the limitations of common methods,such as ARMAX,ARMA,MR and AR,in predicting time series with abrupt changes,this paper applies a mixed method,which combines the Neural Network and the Wavelet mathematical tools.The comparison between the data and the results obtained from the wavelet-neural network confirms the precision of the model.The precision and validity of the neural-wavelet network model is further confirmed by the fact that it has been able to reduce the mean sum of square of errors to a larger extent than the Neural Network models.The findings show a 3%decrease in the number of marriages,from 704,716 in 2017 to 683,190 in 2027.On the other hand,the number of divorces has increased by 30%,from 181,049 in 2017 to 235,407 in 2027.Thus,the number of divorces per 100 marriages will increase from 25.7 to 34.5 just in a decade,which calls for effective interventions if family formation and consolidation are to be improved in Iran.
基金An earlier version of this paper was prepared as a background paper to the preparation of the High-Level Round Table Discussion on the People’s Republic of China’s transition to high-quality development,coordinated by the Asian Development Bank(Grant No.142088-S22537 TA-9508)That version is also in the ADB East Asia Working Paper Series,n.17(November,2019)。
文摘Population aging in the People’s Republic of China(PRC)is mainly due to rapid fertility decline after 1970,a third of which was due to government policy,and the balance to social and economic development.Relaxing fertility policies now would probably not have a large effect on fertility,and rising educational attainment may reduce future fertility by 0.3 births per woman.The successes and failures of Euro-pean fertility policies can guide policy.In any case,the PRC’s population will age rapidly,with the old-age dependency ratio(OADR)more than tripling by 2065.This will cause severe fiscal problems for current old-age programs,particularly for pen-sions.The general economic impact will be less severe,as partially offset by rising education and increased capital per worker.Focusing on a particular age,like 65,is a mistake.Health,cognition,and vitality are more important than age itself and these will improve due to past increases in education and better living conditions for children.The retirement age should be raised.One good approach is building auto-matic adjustment mechanisms into old-age programs like pensions.For example,retirement age,taxes,and benefits can be linked to life expectancy and to the OADR as in some European countries.This would increase the labor supply of the elderly and avoid pension-related political problems in the future.
文摘This study investigates household environmental factors and childhood morbidity in South-western Nigeria. To determine patterns of household environ- mental characteristics in south-western Nigeria, both primary and secondary data were employed in the study. The primary data were obtained through in-depth interviews （IDIs） with women of childbearing age who have at least a child within the last 5 years in two randomly selected states, Oyo and Osun states, in south-west Nigeria, while the secondary data were extracted from the 2013 Nigeria Demo- graphic Health Surveys （NDHS） designed to elicit information from 33,385 women of ages between 15 and 49 years in randomly selected households across all the states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital, Abuja. Three remarkable contributions were obtained： （i） the prevalence of childhood disease is high among homes with poor household environmental facilities; （ii） incidence of childhood diseases is greatly influenced by poor toilet facilities, biomass source of cooking fuel and unhealthy type of roofing material; （iii） age of mothers, mothers＇ educational status, wealth index and access to health facility were found to have a significant rela- tionship with childhood diseases. Therefore, it is confirmed that poor household environmental condition and low socio-economic status impede child health in South-western Nigeria.
