Introduction:Varicella,a prevalent respiratory infection among children,has become an escalating public health issue in China.The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-bas...Introduction:Varicella,a prevalent respiratory infection among children,has become an escalating public health issue in China.The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems.This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country.Methods:An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018.To determine statistically significant models,parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed.The coefficients of determination(R2)and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)were compared to selecting an optimal model.This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019.Results:Four models passed parameter(all P<0.05)and Ljung-Box tests(all P>0.05).ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R2(0.271)and standardized BIC(14.970).Fitted values made by the ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model closely followed the values observed in 2019,the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%.Conclusion:The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks.This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.展开更多
Summary What is already known about this topic?Herpes zoster(shingles)is a common skin condition in older adults,which usually presents as a painful rash with blisters.Vaccination is the most effective method to preve...Summary What is already known about this topic?Herpes zoster(shingles)is a common skin condition in older adults,which usually presents as a painful rash with blisters.Vaccination is the most effective method to prevent shingles.However,there is not sufficient population-based epidemiological data in China to optimize the timing of zoster vaccination.What is added by this report?Clustering analyses of population-wide epidemiological data from the Healthcare Big Data Platform in Yichang,China showed that the average annual zoster incidence is the highest among people 55 years or older,at 10 cases per thousand persons per year,making this age group the optimal target population for vaccination.Incidence was lower but increased with age among younger adults,28–54 years old.What are the implications for public health practice?With limited vaccination resources,zoster vaccinations should be targeted at adults 55 years or older who are at the greatest risk for shingles.Research should be conducted to understand the risk of shingles among young and middle-aged adults and identify triggers of shingles:potentially leading to preventive measures.展开更多
基金Supported by Beijing Natural Science Foundation(L202008)and National Science and Technology Major Project of China(2012CB955500,2012CB955504).
文摘Introduction:Varicella,a prevalent respiratory infection among children,has become an escalating public health issue in China.The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems.This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country.Methods:An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018.To determine statistically significant models,parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed.The coefficients of determination(R2)and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)were compared to selecting an optimal model.This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019.Results:Four models passed parameter(all P<0.05)and Ljung-Box tests(all P>0.05).ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R2(0.271)and standardized BIC(14.970).Fitted values made by the ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model closely followed the values observed in 2019,the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%.Conclusion:The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks.This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.
基金2020 Beijing Natural Science Foundation-Haidian Original Innovation Joint Fund Key research topicthe research of varicella disease burden and economic evaluation of vaccination(L202008).
文摘Summary What is already known about this topic?Herpes zoster(shingles)is a common skin condition in older adults,which usually presents as a painful rash with blisters.Vaccination is the most effective method to prevent shingles.However,there is not sufficient population-based epidemiological data in China to optimize the timing of zoster vaccination.What is added by this report?Clustering analyses of population-wide epidemiological data from the Healthcare Big Data Platform in Yichang,China showed that the average annual zoster incidence is the highest among people 55 years or older,at 10 cases per thousand persons per year,making this age group the optimal target population for vaccination.Incidence was lower but increased with age among younger adults,28–54 years old.What are the implications for public health practice?With limited vaccination resources,zoster vaccinations should be targeted at adults 55 years or older who are at the greatest risk for shingles.Research should be conducted to understand the risk of shingles among young and middle-aged adults and identify triggers of shingles:potentially leading to preventive measures.
