Based on the transmission mechanism of seasonal influenza,this paper establishes a SEIMHRS model with hospital-visiting behavior and periodic transmission rate,and then analyzes the existence and stability of disease-...Based on the transmission mechanism of seasonal influenza,this paper establishes a SEIMHRS model with hospital-visiting behavior and periodic transmission rate,and then analyzes the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic periodic solutions theoretically.Taking the epidemic of seasonal infuenza during 2013-2018 in Beijing and conducting parameter estimation,we derive its basic reproduction ratio Ro is 1.0065.Then we concentrate on the correlation between time-varying transmission rate of infuenza and change pattern of three meteorology indices for the first time.The results novelly show that there exists a synchronization phenomenon between the transmission rate and variation pattern of average atmospheric pressure and that there is an anti-synchronism phenomenon between that of the average temperature.Whereas it only shows a normal phase difference with the variation pattern of relative humidity.Finally we advocate emphasis on the effect of variation trend of meteorology on infuenza prediction.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12231012,91846302,12101373,61873154)Shanxi Key Laboratory(No.201705D111006)+2 种基金Key R&D projects of Shanxi Province(No.202003D31011/GZ)Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18)Research of Technological Important Programs in the city of Lvliang,China(No.2022GXYF18).
文摘Based on the transmission mechanism of seasonal influenza,this paper establishes a SEIMHRS model with hospital-visiting behavior and periodic transmission rate,and then analyzes the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic periodic solutions theoretically.Taking the epidemic of seasonal infuenza during 2013-2018 in Beijing and conducting parameter estimation,we derive its basic reproduction ratio Ro is 1.0065.Then we concentrate on the correlation between time-varying transmission rate of infuenza and change pattern of three meteorology indices for the first time.The results novelly show that there exists a synchronization phenomenon between the transmission rate and variation pattern of average atmospheric pressure and that there is an anti-synchronism phenomenon between that of the average temperature.Whereas it only shows a normal phase difference with the variation pattern of relative humidity.Finally we advocate emphasis on the effect of variation trend of meteorology on infuenza prediction.
