In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ...China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.展开更多
The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been perf...The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.展开更多
The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution vers...The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.展开更多
We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change ...We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.展开更多
Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The loc...Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.展开更多
Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temper...Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.展开更多
In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were invest...In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.展开更多
A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- s...A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- sults indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was char-acterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature （within -0.3℃） and slight regional changes in precipitation （within -15%） in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures in- creased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature in- crease in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.展开更多
The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed u...The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.展开更多
To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of...To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.展开更多
In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concent...In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future(2091-2100,following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate(MIROC3.2_hires), two without(Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with(Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December-January-February-March(DJFM) and the decrease in Aprile May(AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere(TOA)radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.展开更多
A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and...A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and the simulation(hereafter referred to as CdR)is run at a grid spacing of 25 km.The focus of the present paper is on the changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December–January–February(DJF)and June–July–August(JJA)over China.Validation of the model performances is provided first,followed by a comparison of future changes projected by CSIRO and CdR.Substantial warming in the future is simulated by both models,being more pronounced in DJF compared to JJA,and under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5.The warming shows different spatial patterns and,to a less extent,magnitude between CSIRO and CdR.Precipitation change shows a general increase in DJF and a mixture of increase and decrease in JJA.Substantial differences between the two models are found in for precipitation change in JJA.The paper further emphasizes the uncertainties in climate change projection over the region.展开更多
A set of high resolution(25 km)21st century climate change projections using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by four global model simulations were conducted over East Asia under the mid-range RCP4.5 scenario....A set of high resolution(25 km)21st century climate change projections using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by four global model simulations were conducted over East Asia under the mid-range RCP4.5 scenario.In the present paper,the authors investigate the change in thermal comfort conditions over china based on an ensemble of the projections,using the index of effective temperature(ET),which considers the aggregate effects of temperature,relative humidity,and wind on human thermal perception.The analysis also accounts for exposure as measured by distributed population amount scenarios.The authors find that the general increase in ET leads to a large increase in population exposure to very hot days(a China-aggregated sixfold increase in‘person-days’by the end of the 21st century.There is a decrease in cool,cold,and very cold person-days.Meanwhile,a decrease in comfortable day conditions by 22%person-days is found despite an increase in climate-based comfortable days.Analysis of the different contributions to the changes(climate,population,and interactions between the two)show that climate effects play a more important role in the hot end of the thermal comfort categories,while the population effects tend to be dominant in the cold categories.Thus,overall,even a mid-level warming scenario is found to increase the thermal stress over China,although there is a strong geographical dependence.The inclusion of population exposure strongly modulates the climateonly signal,which highlights the need for including socioeconomic factors in the assessment of risks associated with climate change.展开更多
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the ...The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including： the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response（e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature） to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.展开更多
A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to changing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases （GHGs, CO2, CH4, N2O）, tropospheric O3, and aerosols during th...A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to changing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases （GHGs, CO2, CH4, N2O）, tropospheric O3, and aerosols during the years 1951-2000. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic carbon （POA）, secondary organic carbon （SOA）, black carbon （BC） aerosols, and tropospheric 03 for the years 1950 and 2000 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol-GCM simulations, and then monthly concentrations are interpolated linearly between 1951 and 2000. The annual concentrations of GHGs are taken from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. BC aerosol is internally mixed with other aerosols. Model results indicate that the sinmlated climate change over 1951-2000 is sensitive to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric components. The predicted year 2000 global mean surface air temperature can differ by 0.8℃ with different forcings. Relative to the climate simulation without changes in GHGs, O3, and aerosols, anthropogenic forcings of SO4^2-, BC, BC＋SO4^2-, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA＋SOA＋NO3^-, O3, and GHGs are predicted to change the surface air temperature averaged over 1971-2000 in eastern China, respectively, by -0.40℃, ＋0.62℃, ＋0.18℃, ＋0.15℃, -0.78℃, ＋0.43℃, and ＋0.85℃, and to change the precipitation, respectively, by -0.21, ＋0.07, -0.03, ＋0.02, -0.24, -0.08, and ＋0.10 mm d^-1. The authors conclude that all major aerosols are as important as GHGs in influencing climate change in eastern China, and tropospheric O3 also needs to be included in studies of regional climate change in China.展开更多
Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emis...Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.展开更多
This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercompariso...This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7-2.0 ℃ under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 ℃ target has a large spread of 40-60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4-2.7 ℃ under the 2.0 ℃ target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China： being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9-2.1 ℃ for the 1.5℃ target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part （1.3-1.5 ℃）. A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 ℃ target.展开更多
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century clima...The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91744311 and91544219)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41405138)
文摘China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41130103 and 41210007)
文摘The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305069)the Open Project Program of the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technologythe National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (Grant No. 2010CB951904)
文摘The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41210007 and 41130103)
文摘We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0600701）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675069）, and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China （CCSF201731）.
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375104)the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science
文摘Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.
文摘Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.
基金This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606403)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20070103)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41822502)the CAS–PKU Joint Research Program
文摘In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.
基金supported by the Laboratory for Climate Studies Open Funds for Young Scholars (2014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405101 and 41375104)the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)
文摘A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- sults indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was char-acterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature （within -0.3℃） and slight regional changes in precipitation （within -15%） in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures in- creased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature in- crease in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Grant No. GYHY201306026)the Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology (KLOE) Open Fund (Grant No. XJDX02012012-04)
文摘The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)under Grant No.2010AA012304the"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41125017 and 40890054)
文摘To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.
基金supported by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Administration(No.CCSF201509)the Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(No.GYHY201306019)
文摘In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future(2091-2100,following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate(MIROC3.2_hires), two without(Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with(Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December-January-February-March(DJFM) and the decrease in Aprile May(AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere(TOA)radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program [grant number 2016YFA0600704]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41375104]
文摘A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and the simulation(hereafter referred to as CdR)is run at a grid spacing of 25 km.The focus of the present paper is on the changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December–January–February(DJF)and June–July–August(JJA)over China.Validation of the model performances is provided first,followed by a comparison of future changes projected by CSIRO and CdR.Substantial warming in the future is simulated by both models,being more pronounced in DJF compared to JJA,and under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5.The warming shows different spatial patterns and,to a less extent,magnitude between CSIRO and CdR.Precipitation change shows a general increase in DJF and a mixture of increase and decrease in JJA.Substantial differences between the two models are found in for precipitation change in JJA.The paper further emphasizes the uncertainties in climate change projection over the region.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600704)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375104)
文摘A set of high resolution(25 km)21st century climate change projections using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by four global model simulations were conducted over East Asia under the mid-range RCP4.5 scenario.In the present paper,the authors investigate the change in thermal comfort conditions over china based on an ensemble of the projections,using the index of effective temperature(ET),which considers the aggregate effects of temperature,relative humidity,and wind on human thermal perception.The analysis also accounts for exposure as measured by distributed population amount scenarios.The authors find that the general increase in ET leads to a large increase in population exposure to very hot days(a China-aggregated sixfold increase in‘person-days’by the end of the 21st century.There is a decrease in cool,cold,and very cold person-days.Meanwhile,a decrease in comfortable day conditions by 22%person-days is found despite an increase in climate-based comfortable days.Analysis of the different contributions to the changes(climate,population,and interactions between the two)show that climate effects play a more important role in the hot end of the thermal comfort categories,while the population effects tend to be dominant in the cold categories.Thus,overall,even a mid-level warming scenario is found to increase the thermal stress over China,although there is a strong geographical dependence.The inclusion of population exposure strongly modulates the climateonly signal,which highlights the need for including socioeconomic factors in the assessment of risks associated with climate change.
基金supported by the Research Council of Norway through the Blue Arc project (207650/ E10)the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 20072013) through the NACLIM project (308299)+1 种基金the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China through projects 41375083 and 41210007the Nord Forsk-funded project GREENICE (61841): Impacts of Sea-Ice and Snow-Cover Changes on Climate, Green Growth, and Society
文摘The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including： the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response（e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature） to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos90711004 and 40825016)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos:KZCX2-YW-Q1-02,KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘A unified chemistry-aerosol-climate model is applied in this work to compare climate responses to changing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases （GHGs, CO2, CH4, N2O）, tropospheric O3, and aerosols during the years 1951-2000. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic carbon （POA）, secondary organic carbon （SOA）, black carbon （BC） aerosols, and tropospheric 03 for the years 1950 and 2000 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol-GCM simulations, and then monthly concentrations are interpolated linearly between 1951 and 2000. The annual concentrations of GHGs are taken from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. BC aerosol is internally mixed with other aerosols. Model results indicate that the sinmlated climate change over 1951-2000 is sensitive to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric components. The predicted year 2000 global mean surface air temperature can differ by 0.8℃ with different forcings. Relative to the climate simulation without changes in GHGs, O3, and aerosols, anthropogenic forcings of SO4^2-, BC, BC＋SO4^2-, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA, BC＋SO4^2- ＋POA＋SOA＋NO3^-, O3, and GHGs are predicted to change the surface air temperature averaged over 1971-2000 in eastern China, respectively, by -0.40℃, ＋0.62℃, ＋0.18℃, ＋0.15℃, -0.78℃, ＋0.43℃, and ＋0.85℃, and to change the precipitation, respectively, by -0.21, ＋0.07, -0.03, ＋0.02, -0.24, -0.08, and ＋0.10 mm d^-1. The authors conclude that all major aerosols are as important as GHGs in influencing climate change in eastern China, and tropospheric O3 also needs to be included in studies of regional climate change in China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No2009CB421406)the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-Q1-02+1 种基金National Key Technologies R & D Program Project (Grant No 2007BAC03A01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo 40631005)
文摘Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.
基金We thank two anonymous reviewers and Professor Gao Xuejie for their various constructive and detailed comments, which have greatly helped us to improve the presentation of this paper. This research was supported by the National Key R＆D Program of China （2017YFA0603802） and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675084）.
文摘This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7-2.0 ℃ under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 ℃ target has a large spread of 40-60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4-2.7 ℃ under the 2.0 ℃ target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China： being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9-2.1 ℃ for the 1.5℃ target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part （1.3-1.5 ℃）. A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 ℃ target.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences under (Grant Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-05)the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Pro-gram) (Grant No.2009CB421407)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005,40775049, and 40805029)
文摘The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.
