In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ...China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.展开更多
The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been perf...The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.展开更多
The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution vers...The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.展开更多
We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change ...We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.展开更多
Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The loc...Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.展开更多
Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temper...Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.展开更多
Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined...Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.展开更多
This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seaso...This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036e2065) and far-future (2066e2095) periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 C during winter than of 4.9 C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly subregion within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM uncertainty among the downscaled multi-RCMs. Finally, the RCM related uncertainty is found to be large for the projected changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the hilly sub-regions within HKH by the end of this century, suggesting that improving the regional processes and feedbacks in RCMs are essential for narrowing the uncertainty, and for providing more reliable regional climate change projections suitable for impact assessments in HKH region.展开更多
In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were invest...In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.展开更多
A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- s...A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- sults indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was char-acterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature （within -0.3℃） and slight regional changes in precipitation （within -15%） in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures in- creased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature in- crease in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.展开更多
The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed u...The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.展开更多
To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of...To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.展开更多
In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concent...In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future(2091-2100,following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate(MIROC3.2_hires), two without(Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with(Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December-January-February-March(DJFM) and the decrease in Aprile May(AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere(TOA)radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.展开更多
A reduced scale model of the coupled carbon cycle, population dynamics, energy system and land use characteristics is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric carbon to a variety of policies. Policies simulated i...A reduced scale model of the coupled carbon cycle, population dynamics, energy system and land use characteristics is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric carbon to a variety of policies. Policies simulated include reduction of the rate of growth of the population;reduction of the rate of conversion of forested land to cropland;reduction in per capita energy demand in developed nations;reduction in per capita energy demand in developing nations;reduction in the carbon intensity of energy production in developed nations;and reduction in the carbon intensity of energy production in developing nations. For each policy, both the time to onset of the policy and the fractional annual rate of change in the associated model variable are established. Using as a measure of sensitivity the extension in years required for atmospheric carbon to reach the policy ceiling of 1160 BMT, achieved at a policy that introduces a rate of change in each affected model variable of 0.05 per year (a 5% change per year), then the policies in decreasing order of sensitivity are: Developing nations per capita growth (17 years), Developing nations carbon intensity (17 years), Population control (11 years), Developed nations carbon intensity (2.9 years), Developed nations per capita growth (2.8 years) and Land use (1.3 years). These values are all approximately doubled when population is stabilised first. An analysis of the model results also shows a convergence of the developed and developing nations per capita carbon emissions by 2100 when a portfolio of policies is selected to prevent a doubling of the pre-industrial revolution level of atmospheric carbon at any point in the future, consistent with a principle of “contract and converge”.展开更多
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is now a global paradigm. While conceptions of IWRM principles vary between contexts, it primarily aims to ensure more coordinated management between different aspects of w...Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is now a global paradigm. While conceptions of IWRM principles vary between contexts, it primarily aims to ensure more coordinated management between different aspects of water issues such as water quality, land management and habitat protection. However, one increasingly significant cross-cutting management issue is climate change adaptation which presents multiple problems for IWRM approaches. This paper therefore seeks to gauge the extent to which IWRM principles can, and indeed are, enhancing the adaptive capacity of water management through reducing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of social-ecological systems. A review of research into vulnerability and resilience to date suggests that IWRM has significant potential for supporting some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity. However, despite IWRM being promoted as an attractive approach, our assessment argues that IWRM, as currently practiced, cannot readily enhance flexibility and adaptability, which is required for climate change adaptation. Normative recommendations for future policy are then provided.展开更多
In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
The climate in Southwest China are predominantly under the influences of three contrasting climate systems, namely the East Asian monsoon, the South Asian monsoon, and the westerlies. However, it is unclear if the div...The climate in Southwest China are predominantly under the influences of three contrasting climate systems, namely the East Asian monsoon, the South Asian monsoon, and the westerlies. However, it is unclear if the diversified climate systems, in combination with the complex terrain and varying vegetation types, would result in contrasting patterns of changes in climate across the region. Based on the CRU TS data for the period 1901−2017, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the regional climate, and identified types of climate change patterns and drivers. Overall, the region experienced significant increases in annual mean temperature during 1901−2017, with occurrence of a significant turning point in 1954 for a more pronounced warming (0.16 ℃/10 a). The annual precipitation fluctuated greatly over the study period without apparent trend, albeit the occurrence of a significant turning point in 1928 for a slight increase in the later period (1.19 mm/10 a). Spatially the multi-year averages of selective climate variables during 1901–2017 displayed a trend of decreases from southeast to northwest, but with increasing variability. We identified five major climate change types across the study region, including warmer (T^(+)), drier (P^(−)), warmer-drier (T^(+)P^(−)), warmer-wetter (T^(+)P^(+)), and no significant changes (NSC). The type T^(+)P^(+) mainly occurred in the western parts over the plateau sub-frigid semiarid ecozone (77.0%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (19.9%). The central parts of the region are characterized by the type T^(+), corresponding to six ecozones, including the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (33.1%), the plateau temperate humid-semihumid ecozone (28.8%), the plateau sub-rigid semihumid ecozone (9.5%), the southern subtropical humid ecozone (8.1%), the plateau sub-frigid arid ecozone (7.3%), and the plateau temperate semiarid ecozone (6.6%). No significant change in climate was detected for the eastern parts over the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (67.3%), the plateau temperate humid and semihumid ecozone (19.5%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (8.8%). The types P^(−) and T^(+)P^(−) together accounted for less than 5% of the entire study region, which predominantly occurred in central Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and south of the southeastern Xizang, corresponding predominantly to the mid-subtropical humid ecozone. Across the region and within the zonal climate change types, vegetation and topography both played a significant role in determining the climate variability and magnitude of changes. Our results suggest that the southwestern China experienced intensified influences of the southeasterly monsoon and the southerly monsoon in the regional climate, while the westerly alpine influences subsided;topography and vegetation affected the magnitudes of the directional changes in climate at a local scale.展开更多
A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and...A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and the simulation(hereafter referred to as CdR)is run at a grid spacing of 25 km.The focus of the present paper is on the changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December–January–February(DJF)and June–July–August(JJA)over China.Validation of the model performances is provided first,followed by a comparison of future changes projected by CSIRO and CdR.Substantial warming in the future is simulated by both models,being more pronounced in DJF compared to JJA,and under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5.The warming shows different spatial patterns and,to a less extent,magnitude between CSIRO and CdR.Precipitation change shows a general increase in DJF and a mixture of increase and decrease in JJA.Substantial differences between the two models are found in for precipitation change in JJA.The paper further emphasizes the uncertainties in climate change projection over the region.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91744311 and91544219)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41405138)
文摘China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41130103 and 41210007)
文摘The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305069)the Open Project Program of the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technologythe National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (Grant No. 2010CB951904)
文摘The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41210007 and 41130103)
文摘We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375104)the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science
文摘Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0600701）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675069）, and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China （CCSF201731）.
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.
文摘Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40971019)the West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.O828A11001)+4 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2007CB411501)the Special Grant for Postgraduate Research,Innovation and Practicethe Major Directionality Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX-YW-317)the Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciencesthe Fund from Lijiang City Government
文摘Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.
文摘This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036e2065) and far-future (2066e2095) periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 C during winter than of 4.9 C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly subregion within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM uncertainty among the downscaled multi-RCMs. Finally, the RCM related uncertainty is found to be large for the projected changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the hilly sub-regions within HKH by the end of this century, suggesting that improving the regional processes and feedbacks in RCMs are essential for narrowing the uncertainty, and for providing more reliable regional climate change projections suitable for impact assessments in HKH region.
基金This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606403)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20070103)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41822502)the CAS–PKU Joint Research Program
文摘In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.
基金supported by the Laboratory for Climate Studies Open Funds for Young Scholars (2014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405101 and 41375104)the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)
文摘A regional climate model （RegCM4） is em- ployed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change （LUCC） on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China （ENW） in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The re- sults indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was char-acterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature （within -0.3℃） and slight regional changes in precipitation （within -15%） in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures in- creased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature in- crease in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Grant No. GYHY201306026)the Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology (KLOE) Open Fund (Grant No. XJDX02012012-04)
文摘The projected temperature and precipitation- change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China （NWAC） were ana- lyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dy- namical downscaling simulations： the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 （RegCM4） forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSMI.1）; the Hadley Centre Global En- vironmental Model version 3 regional climate model （HadGEM3-RA） forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean cou- pled HadGEM version 2 （HadGEM2-AO）; and the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model （NorESM1-M）. Model validation indicated that the mul- timodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Path- ways scenarios （RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively） in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario, Precipitation shows a signifi- cant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCPS.5; but in summer, precipitation is pro- jected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)under Grant No.2010AA012304the"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41125017 and 40890054)
文摘To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC＇s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP＇s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCPS.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCPS.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS （FGOALS-s2） and the second grid-point version of FGOALS （FGOALS-g2）, respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 （FGOALS-g2） are largely attributed to the thermosteric （halosteric） component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCPS.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.
基金supported by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Administration(No.CCSF201509)the Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(No.GYHY201306019)
文摘In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future(2091-2100,following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate(MIROC3.2_hires), two without(Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with(Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December-January-February-March(DJFM) and the decrease in Aprile May(AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere(TOA)radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.
文摘A reduced scale model of the coupled carbon cycle, population dynamics, energy system and land use characteristics is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric carbon to a variety of policies. Policies simulated include reduction of the rate of growth of the population;reduction of the rate of conversion of forested land to cropland;reduction in per capita energy demand in developed nations;reduction in per capita energy demand in developing nations;reduction in the carbon intensity of energy production in developed nations;and reduction in the carbon intensity of energy production in developing nations. For each policy, both the time to onset of the policy and the fractional annual rate of change in the associated model variable are established. Using as a measure of sensitivity the extension in years required for atmospheric carbon to reach the policy ceiling of 1160 BMT, achieved at a policy that introduces a rate of change in each affected model variable of 0.05 per year (a 5% change per year), then the policies in decreasing order of sensitivity are: Developing nations per capita growth (17 years), Developing nations carbon intensity (17 years), Population control (11 years), Developed nations carbon intensity (2.9 years), Developed nations per capita growth (2.8 years) and Land use (1.3 years). These values are all approximately doubled when population is stabilised first. An analysis of the model results also shows a convergence of the developed and developing nations per capita carbon emissions by 2100 when a portfolio of policies is selected to prevent a doubling of the pre-industrial revolution level of atmospheric carbon at any point in the future, consistent with a principle of “contract and converge”.
文摘Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is now a global paradigm. While conceptions of IWRM principles vary between contexts, it primarily aims to ensure more coordinated management between different aspects of water issues such as water quality, land management and habitat protection. However, one increasingly significant cross-cutting management issue is climate change adaptation which presents multiple problems for IWRM approaches. This paper therefore seeks to gauge the extent to which IWRM principles can, and indeed are, enhancing the adaptive capacity of water management through reducing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of social-ecological systems. A review of research into vulnerability and resilience to date suggests that IWRM has significant potential for supporting some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity. However, despite IWRM being promoted as an attractive approach, our assessment argues that IWRM, as currently practiced, cannot readily enhance flexibility and adaptability, which is required for climate change adaptation. Normative recommendations for future policy are then provided.
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
基金This research was funded by Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2016YFC0502104).
文摘The climate in Southwest China are predominantly under the influences of three contrasting climate systems, namely the East Asian monsoon, the South Asian monsoon, and the westerlies. However, it is unclear if the diversified climate systems, in combination with the complex terrain and varying vegetation types, would result in contrasting patterns of changes in climate across the region. Based on the CRU TS data for the period 1901−2017, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the regional climate, and identified types of climate change patterns and drivers. Overall, the region experienced significant increases in annual mean temperature during 1901−2017, with occurrence of a significant turning point in 1954 for a more pronounced warming (0.16 ℃/10 a). The annual precipitation fluctuated greatly over the study period without apparent trend, albeit the occurrence of a significant turning point in 1928 for a slight increase in the later period (1.19 mm/10 a). Spatially the multi-year averages of selective climate variables during 1901–2017 displayed a trend of decreases from southeast to northwest, but with increasing variability. We identified five major climate change types across the study region, including warmer (T^(+)), drier (P^(−)), warmer-drier (T^(+)P^(−)), warmer-wetter (T^(+)P^(+)), and no significant changes (NSC). The type T^(+)P^(+) mainly occurred in the western parts over the plateau sub-frigid semiarid ecozone (77.0%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (19.9%). The central parts of the region are characterized by the type T^(+), corresponding to six ecozones, including the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (33.1%), the plateau temperate humid-semihumid ecozone (28.8%), the plateau sub-rigid semihumid ecozone (9.5%), the southern subtropical humid ecozone (8.1%), the plateau sub-frigid arid ecozone (7.3%), and the plateau temperate semiarid ecozone (6.6%). No significant change in climate was detected for the eastern parts over the mid-subtropical humid ecozone (67.3%), the plateau temperate humid and semihumid ecozone (19.5%) and the plateau sub-frigid semihumid ecozone (8.8%). The types P^(−) and T^(+)P^(−) together accounted for less than 5% of the entire study region, which predominantly occurred in central Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and south of the southeastern Xizang, corresponding predominantly to the mid-subtropical humid ecozone. Across the region and within the zonal climate change types, vegetation and topography both played a significant role in determining the climate variability and magnitude of changes. Our results suggest that the southwestern China experienced intensified influences of the southeasterly monsoon and the southerly monsoon in the regional climate, while the westerly alpine influences subsided;topography and vegetation affected the magnitudes of the directional changes in climate at a local scale.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program [grant number 2016YFA0600704]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41375104]
文摘A regional climate model(RegCM4)is used to project climate change over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.The driving GCM is CSIRO Mk3.6.0(hereafter referred to simply as CSIRO),and the simulation(hereafter referred to as CdR)is run at a grid spacing of 25 km.The focus of the present paper is on the changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December–January–February(DJF)and June–July–August(JJA)over China.Validation of the model performances is provided first,followed by a comparison of future changes projected by CSIRO and CdR.Substantial warming in the future is simulated by both models,being more pronounced in DJF compared to JJA,and under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5.The warming shows different spatial patterns and,to a less extent,magnitude between CSIRO and CdR.Precipitation change shows a general increase in DJF and a mixture of increase and decrease in JJA.Substantial differences between the two models are found in for precipitation change in JJA.The paper further emphasizes the uncertainties in climate change projection over the region.
