In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting...The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China＇s top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China＇s commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China＇s constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win-win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China＇s guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.展开更多
Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the ...Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the overall increasing trend of vegetation activity in different seasons reflects an advanced and prolonged growth period of vegetation under the circumstance of climate warming, but the vegetation evolvement has much inconsistency between different regions and seasons. There are four notable regions, eight sub-areas for vegetation evolvement in spring and summer, and nine sub-areas in autumn. The vegetation activity in most sub-areas is increasing. The most notable region is represented by Lhaze station on the Tibetan Plateau. Two other marked stations are represented by Altay station in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Pengshui station in Sichuan Province. But the time series analysis of NDVI makes clear that the trends of the other two sub-areas, Turpan station in Xinjiang and Huashan station in Shaanxi Province, are descending. It is an important reason for vegetation evolvement that temperature ascends in most of the regions and descends in the east region in some seasons. But another important reason for vegetation evolvement is that precipitation is ascending in the west and descending in the east of the region.展开更多
This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the per...This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.展开更多
Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The loc...Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.展开更多
A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58...A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005, which was four times higher than that in the simulations （0.55 × 10^6 km^2）. Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index （AI） （drying trend） as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble （MME） average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.展开更多
Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before....Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before. Therefore, to regulate its sowing date and growing period is of great significance for better harvest. In this study, experiments were conducted with six sowing-date treatments of potato in Dingxi, which is in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu Province in Northwest China in 2010. The growth period, morphological index and change in yield and their relationships with temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors were investigated for each treatment. Results show that the crop with different sowing dates experienced different climate conditions, leading to distinct growth duration, plant height, and leaf area index. The growth duration was shortened due to a delay in sowing date. For each 15-day delay in sowing, the growth duration was reduced by 12 days on average. A significant linear relationship was found between numbers of days either from seeding to emergence or from flowering to harvest and mean temperature over the corresponding period. Dry matter accumulation, tuber fresh weight, and final yield were all decreased because of insufficient cumulative temperature over the shorter growing periods. Marked differences in tuber yield were discovered among the six treatments of sowing date, the potato planted on May 27 giving the highest yield. The potato planted either earlier or later would produce invariably lower yield than the treatment of May 27. Late May therefore can be taken as the optimum sowing time of potato in this region because the crop can fully utilize thermal resource. We conclude that to postpone sowing time is a good practice for potato production to adapt to climate warming in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, China.展开更多
Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food producti...Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture（CA）from the perspective of：（i）increased yield and farm income,（ii）adaptation to heat and water stresses,and（iii）reduction in greenhouse gas（GHGs）emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost（up to 23%）but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature（reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C）and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.展开更多
Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and cli...Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.展开更多
Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined...Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.展开更多
The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological...The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region; rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend; annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing; the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s; the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased.展开更多
Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning ...Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.展开更多
In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were invest...In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.展开更多
Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and...Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.展开更多
Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above ...Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ （two criteria） have increased during 1960-2010. The area suitable for multiple cropping has increased; the growth period has shortened; the climatic potential productivity has declined; the pest damage has worsened. During 1986-2010, the desired cooling degree days in Southwest China has increased at 38.9℃ d per decade. Forest fires and pests have increased. The area of meadow and wetlands has decreased. Heterogeneous invasion has intensified; endangered animal and plant species have increased. The tourism landscape has been damaged.＇ The risk of human health has increased. In the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the number of days with temperature steadily above 10℃ and the accumulated temperature will continue to increase, most notably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The area of intercropping will expand; multiple cropping will move to higher altitudes. The impacts of agro- meteorological disasters, pests and diseases will intensify. The summer cooling energy consumption continues to increase; energy supply will show larger variability; the gap between energy supply and demand will be widened. The phenology will keep on changing, and the habitat will be worsening. Biological population will move northward and to higher altitudes. Some species are at risk of extinction. Negative effects on health will increase.展开更多
The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing h...The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing huge problems to coastal ecosystems. Vulnerability and disaster assessment and mapping in coastal areas are essential tasks and undertakings for coastal disaster risk management. The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change vulnerability and disaster risks in the four municipalities (Sta. Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc and Palauig) of Zambales and to determine the climate change community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) strategies. Remote sensing, GIS, secondary data gathering and key informant interview were used to assess vulnerability and disaster risks and mapping in the four municipalities. Survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized in gathering data for the determination of climate change adaptation strategies. Using remote sensing technology, it was revealed that coastline changes have occurred in the shorelines of the four coastal municipalities after a decade. Sea level rise happened in Sta. Cruz and Masinloc, Zambales while there was build-up of soil in the coastline of Candelaria and Palauig, Zambales. Twelve hazard maps, 12 vulnerability maps and 12 disaster risk maps were generated for the three major disasters (flood, landslide, storm surge) in the four coastal municipalities. Based on the flood vulnerability and disaster risk assessment, the municipality of Palauig was found to be the most prone to flooding while the municipality of Candelaria was found to be the most vulnerable to landslide compared to other municipalities. All coastal barangays in the four municipalities were susceptible to storm surge. The four coastal municipalities were conducting community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) approaches in order to protect their coastal resources from the damaging impacts of climate change and improve the resilience of their local communities.展开更多
The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of th...The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence o...Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.展开更多
Flowering onset has attracted much attention in ecological research as an important indicator of climate change.Generally,warmer temperatures advance flowering onset.The effect of climate warming on flowering onset is...Flowering onset has attracted much attention in ecological research as an important indicator of climate change.Generally,warmer temperatures advance flowering onset.The effect of climate warming on flowering onset is more pronounced in spring because the difference between atmospheric and water temperatures creates more rapid convection than in other seasons.We analyzed the correlation between 73 species of spring woody plants in Hongneung Arboretum in Seoul,South Korea and the spring minimum temperature and average precipitation over the past 50 years(1968–2018).The spring minimum temperature and average precipitation have increased over the past 50 years,resulting in the advance of the first flowing date(FFD)in all 73 species by 8.5 days on average.A comparison of FFD changes over time by dividing the survey period into three time periods confirmed the advance of the FFD in 50 species(68%of investigated species)by 11.1 days on average in both Period 2(1999–2008)and Period 3(2009–2018)relative to Period 1(1968–1975).Additionally,a delay of the FFD by 3.2 days on average was observed in 8 species.The FFD of Lonicera chrysantha(Caprifoliaceae)advanced by over 40 days and was highly correlated with the increased spring minimum temperature.Analysis of the sensitivity of plant responses to climate change revealed that a temperature rise of 1℃ was associated with an FFD advance of 1.2 days in all species.The species that was most sensitive to temperature change was Spiraea pubescens for.leiocarpa(Rosaceae),whose FFD advanced by 4.7 days per 1℃ temperature rise.Each increase in precipitation by 1 mm was found to result in a 0.1-day advance of the FFD of all species.Prunus tomentosa(Rosa-ceae)was the most sensitive species,that advanced by 2.6 days for each 1 mm increase in precipitation.Thus,for all species,the FFD was more sensitive to the change in temperature than in precipitation.Assuming that the current greenhouse gas(GHGs)emission levels or atmospheric CO_(2) concentration is maintained,Seoul’s spring minimum temperature is projected to rise by 2.7℃ over the next 50 years.Accordingly,considering only the global temperature change,the mean FFD of the study’s 73 species is projected to advance by an additional 3.4 days.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
文摘The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China＇s top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China＇s commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China＇s constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win-win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China＇s guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40205014 No.40175004+2 种基金 Project of Gansu Province, No.3ZS051-A25-011 Item of the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2004BA901A16 No.2004DIB5J192
文摘Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the overall increasing trend of vegetation activity in different seasons reflects an advanced and prolonged growth period of vegetation under the circumstance of climate warming, but the vegetation evolvement has much inconsistency between different regions and seasons. There are four notable regions, eight sub-areas for vegetation evolvement in spring and summer, and nine sub-areas in autumn. The vegetation activity in most sub-areas is increasing. The most notable region is represented by Lhaze station on the Tibetan Plateau. Two other marked stations are represented by Altay station in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Pengshui station in Sichuan Province. But the time series analysis of NDVI makes clear that the trends of the other two sub-areas, Turpan station in Xinjiang and Huashan station in Shaanxi Province, are descending. It is an important reason for vegetation evolvement that temperature ascends in most of the regions and descends in the east region in some seasons. But another important reason for vegetation evolvement is that precipitation is ascending in the west and descending in the east of the region.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571018
文摘This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375104)the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science
文摘Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0600701）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675069）, and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China （CCSF201731）.
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB 955301)the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41175134 and 41305060)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (Grant No.IRT1018)
文摘A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005, which was four times higher than that in the simulations （0.55 × 10^6 km^2）. Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index （AI） （drying trend） as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble （MME） average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.
基金supported by the Scientific Research and Innovation Plan for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province, China(CXZZ13_0521)
文摘Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before. Therefore, to regulate its sowing date and growing period is of great significance for better harvest. In this study, experiments were conducted with six sowing-date treatments of potato in Dingxi, which is in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu Province in Northwest China in 2010. The growth period, morphological index and change in yield and their relationships with temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors were investigated for each treatment. Results show that the crop with different sowing dates experienced different climate conditions, leading to distinct growth duration, plant height, and leaf area index. The growth duration was shortened due to a delay in sowing date. For each 15-day delay in sowing, the growth duration was reduced by 12 days on average. A significant linear relationship was found between numbers of days either from seeding to emergence or from flowering to harvest and mean temperature over the corresponding period. Dry matter accumulation, tuber fresh weight, and final yield were all decreased because of insufficient cumulative temperature over the shorter growing periods. Marked differences in tuber yield were discovered among the six treatments of sowing date, the potato planted on May 27 giving the highest yield. The potato planted either earlier or later would produce invariably lower yield than the treatment of May 27. Late May therefore can be taken as the optimum sowing time of potato in this region because the crop can fully utilize thermal resource. We conclude that to postpone sowing time is a good practice for potato production to adapt to climate warming in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, China.
基金Financial supports for these works come from Bayer CropScienceIndian Council of Agricultural Research(ICAR)CGIAR’s research program(CRP)on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security(CCAFS)
文摘Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture（CA）from the perspective of：（i）increased yield and farm income,（ii）adaptation to heat and water stresses,and（iii）reduction in greenhouse gas（GHGs）emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost（up to 23%）but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature（reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C）and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.
基金funded by the National 973 Program of China (2012CB955904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31171452)the Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network initiated and funded by Defra UK and Minstry of Agriculture of China (H5105000)
文摘Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40971019)the West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.O828A11001)+4 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2007CB411501)the Special Grant for Postgraduate Research,Innovation and Practicethe Major Directionality Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX-YW-317)the Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciencesthe Fund from Lijiang City Government
文摘Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.
基金supported by the special climate change in 2010 of the China Meteorological Administration (No. ccfs-2010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41275097)
文摘The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region; rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend; annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing; the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s; the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41991231,42041004,and 41888101)the China University Research Talents Recruitment Program(111 project,Grant No.B13045).
文摘Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.
基金This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606403)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20070103)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41822502)the CAS–PKU Joint Research Program
文摘In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.
基金This study was funded by the Quebec Ministry of Forests,Wildlife,and Parks(contrats de service de recherche forestier 142332156-2018-A and 142332174-E:PI:E.Thiffault)by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council through a Discovery Grant to E.Thiffault(grant number RGPIN-2018-05755).
文摘Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.
基金supported by the fund for Special Climate Change in 2010 from China Meteorological Administration(No.CCFS-2010)by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41275097)
文摘Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ （two criteria） have increased during 1960-2010. The area suitable for multiple cropping has increased; the growth period has shortened; the climatic potential productivity has declined; the pest damage has worsened. During 1986-2010, the desired cooling degree days in Southwest China has increased at 38.9℃ d per decade. Forest fires and pests have increased. The area of meadow and wetlands has decreased. Heterogeneous invasion has intensified; endangered animal and plant species have increased. The tourism landscape has been damaged.＇ The risk of human health has increased. In the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the number of days with temperature steadily above 10℃ and the accumulated temperature will continue to increase, most notably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The area of intercropping will expand; multiple cropping will move to higher altitudes. The impacts of agro- meteorological disasters, pests and diseases will intensify. The summer cooling energy consumption continues to increase; energy supply will show larger variability; the gap between energy supply and demand will be widened. The phenology will keep on changing, and the habitat will be worsening. Biological population will move northward and to higher altitudes. Some species are at risk of extinction. Negative effects on health will increase.
文摘The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing huge problems to coastal ecosystems. Vulnerability and disaster assessment and mapping in coastal areas are essential tasks and undertakings for coastal disaster risk management. The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change vulnerability and disaster risks in the four municipalities (Sta. Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc and Palauig) of Zambales and to determine the climate change community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) strategies. Remote sensing, GIS, secondary data gathering and key informant interview were used to assess vulnerability and disaster risks and mapping in the four municipalities. Survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized in gathering data for the determination of climate change adaptation strategies. Using remote sensing technology, it was revealed that coastline changes have occurred in the shorelines of the four coastal municipalities after a decade. Sea level rise happened in Sta. Cruz and Masinloc, Zambales while there was build-up of soil in the coastline of Candelaria and Palauig, Zambales. Twelve hazard maps, 12 vulnerability maps and 12 disaster risk maps were generated for the three major disasters (flood, landslide, storm surge) in the four coastal municipalities. Based on the flood vulnerability and disaster risk assessment, the municipality of Palauig was found to be the most prone to flooding while the municipality of Candelaria was found to be the most vulnerable to landslide compared to other municipalities. All coastal barangays in the four municipalities were susceptible to storm surge. The four coastal municipalities were conducting community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) approaches in order to protect their coastal resources from the damaging impacts of climate change and improve the resilience of their local communities.
基金supported by the Second Comprehensive Scientific Research Survey on the Tibetan Plateau[grant number 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42375071 and 42230610].
文摘The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.
基金the Key R&D Projects of Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Department(20200403070SF)Young Top-Notch Talent Support Program of National High-level Talents Special Support Plan+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(NO.2017YFC0403506)China Water Resource Conservation and Protection Project(No.126302001000150005)Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering(NO.2016-ZD-08-05-02)。
文摘Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.
基金This study was supported by the BK21 Plus Program(Creative Academy of Ecoscience,31Z20130012990)funded by the Ministry of Education and National Research Foundation of Korea.
文摘Flowering onset has attracted much attention in ecological research as an important indicator of climate change.Generally,warmer temperatures advance flowering onset.The effect of climate warming on flowering onset is more pronounced in spring because the difference between atmospheric and water temperatures creates more rapid convection than in other seasons.We analyzed the correlation between 73 species of spring woody plants in Hongneung Arboretum in Seoul,South Korea and the spring minimum temperature and average precipitation over the past 50 years(1968–2018).The spring minimum temperature and average precipitation have increased over the past 50 years,resulting in the advance of the first flowing date(FFD)in all 73 species by 8.5 days on average.A comparison of FFD changes over time by dividing the survey period into three time periods confirmed the advance of the FFD in 50 species(68%of investigated species)by 11.1 days on average in both Period 2(1999–2008)and Period 3(2009–2018)relative to Period 1(1968–1975).Additionally,a delay of the FFD by 3.2 days on average was observed in 8 species.The FFD of Lonicera chrysantha(Caprifoliaceae)advanced by over 40 days and was highly correlated with the increased spring minimum temperature.Analysis of the sensitivity of plant responses to climate change revealed that a temperature rise of 1℃ was associated with an FFD advance of 1.2 days in all species.The species that was most sensitive to temperature change was Spiraea pubescens for.leiocarpa(Rosaceae),whose FFD advanced by 4.7 days per 1℃ temperature rise.Each increase in precipitation by 1 mm was found to result in a 0.1-day advance of the FFD of all species.Prunus tomentosa(Rosa-ceae)was the most sensitive species,that advanced by 2.6 days for each 1 mm increase in precipitation.Thus,for all species,the FFD was more sensitive to the change in temperature than in precipitation.Assuming that the current greenhouse gas(GHGs)emission levels or atmospheric CO_(2) concentration is maintained,Seoul’s spring minimum temperature is projected to rise by 2.7℃ over the next 50 years.Accordingly,considering only the global temperature change,the mean FFD of the study’s 73 species is projected to advance by an additional 3.4 days.
