In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning ...Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.展开更多
The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of th...The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Togo is facing significant climate challenges that have profound consequences for its environment, economy, and population. This study provides an overview of various climate phenomena affecting Togo and highlights po...Togo is facing significant climate challenges that have profound consequences for its environment, economy, and population. This study provides an overview of various climate phenomena affecting Togo and highlights potential adaptation strategies. We used the inclusion and exclusion criteria (PRISMA) to search both French and English articles on climate change-related disaster risk events in Togo through Google Scholar, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), and PubMed databases using the keywords “Climate Change”, “Floods”, “Drought”, “Coastal erosion”, “High winds”, “Epidemy”, Heatwaves”, and “Air pollution”. Twenty-five articles from 2000-2023 were included in this study after applying different criteria. Droughts, floods, coastal erosion, food and crop productivity loss, heatwaves, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution, and high winds are among the climate phenomena discussed. These challenges are driven by climate change, altering precipitation patterns, increasing temperatures, and rising sea levels. Drought, floods, coastal erosion, loss of food and crop productivity, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution and heatwaves are the most climate risks experienced by Togo. Drought contributes to decreased plant cover, water scarcity, and changes in the water and energy balance. Floods cause property damage, health risks, and disruptions to livelihoods. Coastal erosion threatens coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Adaptation strategies include early warning systems, improved water management, sustainable agriculture, urban and health planning, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Drought-resistant crops, mosquito control, and clean energy adoption are essential.展开更多
The concept of community resilience in the contexts of climate change and disasters draws increasing attention and interest from practitioners and researchers in recent development discourse. This paper provides a cri...The concept of community resilience in the contexts of climate change and disasters draws increasing attention and interest from practitioners and researchers in recent development discourse. This paper provides a critical review of six selected frameworks of community resilience building operationalized in Bangladesh over the span of years. In other words, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of resilience through a systematic analysis of the dimensions and indicators of community resilience frameworks. The analysis shows that comprehensive and effective community resilience frameworks should incorporate the missing components linked to fundamental elements of good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, social transformation, and capacity development. The paper concludes by highlighting a few other areas of grave concern that need more appropriate attention, considering the severe threats posed by climate change and natural disasters in line with sustainable development goals. Finally, this study recommends further research regarding the effectiveness of these frameworks in different climatic and disaster contexts that can lead the concept into a new dimension of community resilience and sustainability.展开更多
In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting...The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China＇s top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China＇s commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China＇s constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win-win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China＇s guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.展开更多
Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for...Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for international cooperation and integrated approaches.The potential effects of climate change on natural hazards,as well as water and energy resources,are of great concern to geoscientists and stakeholders.展开更多
Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the ...Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the overall increasing trend of vegetation activity in different seasons reflects an advanced and prolonged growth period of vegetation under the circumstance of climate warming, but the vegetation evolvement has much inconsistency between different regions and seasons. There are four notable regions, eight sub-areas for vegetation evolvement in spring and summer, and nine sub-areas in autumn. The vegetation activity in most sub-areas is increasing. The most notable region is represented by Lhaze station on the Tibetan Plateau. Two other marked stations are represented by Altay station in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Pengshui station in Sichuan Province. But the time series analysis of NDVI makes clear that the trends of the other two sub-areas, Turpan station in Xinjiang and Huashan station in Shaanxi Province, are descending. It is an important reason for vegetation evolvement that temperature ascends in most of the regions and descends in the east region in some seasons. But another important reason for vegetation evolvement is that precipitation is ascending in the west and descending in the east of the region.展开更多
Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The loc...Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.展开更多
This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the per...This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.展开更多
A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58...A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005, which was four times higher than that in the simulations （0.55 × 10^6 km^2）. Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index （AI） （drying trend） as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble （MME） average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.展开更多
Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before....Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before. Therefore, to regulate its sowing date and growing period is of great significance for better harvest. In this study, experiments were conducted with six sowing-date treatments of potato in Dingxi, which is in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu Province in Northwest China in 2010. The growth period, morphological index and change in yield and their relationships with temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors were investigated for each treatment. Results show that the crop with different sowing dates experienced different climate conditions, leading to distinct growth duration, plant height, and leaf area index. The growth duration was shortened due to a delay in sowing date. For each 15-day delay in sowing, the growth duration was reduced by 12 days on average. A significant linear relationship was found between numbers of days either from seeding to emergence or from flowering to harvest and mean temperature over the corresponding period. Dry matter accumulation, tuber fresh weight, and final yield were all decreased because of insufficient cumulative temperature over the shorter growing periods. Marked differences in tuber yield were discovered among the six treatments of sowing date, the potato planted on May 27 giving the highest yield. The potato planted either earlier or later would produce invariably lower yield than the treatment of May 27. Late May therefore can be taken as the optimum sowing time of potato in this region because the crop can fully utilize thermal resource. We conclude that to postpone sowing time is a good practice for potato production to adapt to climate warming in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, China.展开更多
Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food producti...Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture（CA）from the perspective of：（i）increased yield and farm income,（ii）adaptation to heat and water stresses,and（iii）reduction in greenhouse gas（GHGs）emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost（up to 23%）but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature（reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C）and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.展开更多
Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and cli...Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.展开更多
Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined...Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.展开更多
The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological...The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region; rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend; annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing; the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s; the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased.展开更多
In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were invest...In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.展开更多
Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and...Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41991231,42041004,and 41888101)the China University Research Talents Recruitment Program(111 project,Grant No.B13045).
文摘Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.
基金supported by the Second Comprehensive Scientific Research Survey on the Tibetan Plateau[grant number 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42375071 and 42230610].
文摘The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.
文摘Togo is facing significant climate challenges that have profound consequences for its environment, economy, and population. This study provides an overview of various climate phenomena affecting Togo and highlights potential adaptation strategies. We used the inclusion and exclusion criteria (PRISMA) to search both French and English articles on climate change-related disaster risk events in Togo through Google Scholar, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), and PubMed databases using the keywords “Climate Change”, “Floods”, “Drought”, “Coastal erosion”, “High winds”, “Epidemy”, Heatwaves”, and “Air pollution”. Twenty-five articles from 2000-2023 were included in this study after applying different criteria. Droughts, floods, coastal erosion, food and crop productivity loss, heatwaves, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution, and high winds are among the climate phenomena discussed. These challenges are driven by climate change, altering precipitation patterns, increasing temperatures, and rising sea levels. Drought, floods, coastal erosion, loss of food and crop productivity, spread of vector-borne diseases, air pollution and heatwaves are the most climate risks experienced by Togo. Drought contributes to decreased plant cover, water scarcity, and changes in the water and energy balance. Floods cause property damage, health risks, and disruptions to livelihoods. Coastal erosion threatens coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Adaptation strategies include early warning systems, improved water management, sustainable agriculture, urban and health planning, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Drought-resistant crops, mosquito control, and clean energy adoption are essential.
文摘The concept of community resilience in the contexts of climate change and disasters draws increasing attention and interest from practitioners and researchers in recent development discourse. This paper provides a critical review of six selected frameworks of community resilience building operationalized in Bangladesh over the span of years. In other words, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of resilience through a systematic analysis of the dimensions and indicators of community resilience frameworks. The analysis shows that comprehensive and effective community resilience frameworks should incorporate the missing components linked to fundamental elements of good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, social transformation, and capacity development. The paper concludes by highlighting a few other areas of grave concern that need more appropriate attention, considering the severe threats posed by climate change and natural disasters in line with sustainable development goals. Finally, this study recommends further research regarding the effectiveness of these frameworks in different climatic and disaster contexts that can lead the concept into a new dimension of community resilience and sustainability.
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
文摘The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China＇s top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China＇s commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China＇s constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win-win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China＇s guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.
文摘Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for international cooperation and integrated approaches.The potential effects of climate change on natural hazards,as well as water and energy resources,are of great concern to geoscientists and stakeholders.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40205014 No.40175004+2 种基金 Project of Gansu Province, No.3ZS051-A25-011 Item of the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2004BA901A16 No.2004DIB5J192
文摘Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the overall increasing trend of vegetation activity in different seasons reflects an advanced and prolonged growth period of vegetation under the circumstance of climate warming, but the vegetation evolvement has much inconsistency between different regions and seasons. There are four notable regions, eight sub-areas for vegetation evolvement in spring and summer, and nine sub-areas in autumn. The vegetation activity in most sub-areas is increasing. The most notable region is represented by Lhaze station on the Tibetan Plateau. Two other marked stations are represented by Altay station in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Pengshui station in Sichuan Province. But the time series analysis of NDVI makes clear that the trends of the other two sub-areas, Turpan station in Xinjiang and Huashan station in Shaanxi Province, are descending. It is an important reason for vegetation evolvement that temperature ascends in most of the regions and descends in the east region in some seasons. But another important reason for vegetation evolvement is that precipitation is ascending in the west and descending in the east of the region.
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306019)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375104)the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Science
文摘Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571018
文摘This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0600701）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675069）, and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China （CCSF201731）.
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB 955301)the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41175134 and 41305060)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (Grant No.IRT1018)
文摘A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005, which was four times higher than that in the simulations （0.55 × 10^6 km^2）. Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index （AI） （drying trend） as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble （MME） average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.
基金supported by the Scientific Research and Innovation Plan for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province, China(CXZZ13_0521)
文摘Potato grows in most part of China, it achieves higher yield and better quality in Gansu Province than in others. With global warming, its growth duration has been prolonged and sowing date become earlier than before. Therefore, to regulate its sowing date and growing period is of great significance for better harvest. In this study, experiments were conducted with six sowing-date treatments of potato in Dingxi, which is in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu Province in Northwest China in 2010. The growth period, morphological index and change in yield and their relationships with temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors were investigated for each treatment. Results show that the crop with different sowing dates experienced different climate conditions, leading to distinct growth duration, plant height, and leaf area index. The growth duration was shortened due to a delay in sowing date. For each 15-day delay in sowing, the growth duration was reduced by 12 days on average. A significant linear relationship was found between numbers of days either from seeding to emergence or from flowering to harvest and mean temperature over the corresponding period. Dry matter accumulation, tuber fresh weight, and final yield were all decreased because of insufficient cumulative temperature over the shorter growing periods. Marked differences in tuber yield were discovered among the six treatments of sowing date, the potato planted on May 27 giving the highest yield. The potato planted either earlier or later would produce invariably lower yield than the treatment of May 27. Late May therefore can be taken as the optimum sowing time of potato in this region because the crop can fully utilize thermal resource. We conclude that to postpone sowing time is a good practice for potato production to adapt to climate warming in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, China.
基金Financial supports for these works come from Bayer CropScienceIndian Council of Agricultural Research(ICAR)CGIAR’s research program(CRP)on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security(CCAFS)
文摘Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains（IGP）of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture（CA）from the perspective of：（i）increased yield and farm income,（ii）adaptation to heat and water stresses,and（iii）reduction in greenhouse gas（GHGs）emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost（up to 23%）but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature（reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C）and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.
基金funded by the National 973 Program of China (2012CB955904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31171452)the Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network initiated and funded by Defra UK and Minstry of Agriculture of China (H5105000)
文摘Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40971019)the West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.O828A11001)+4 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2007CB411501)the Special Grant for Postgraduate Research,Innovation and Practicethe Major Directionality Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX-YW-317)the Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciencesthe Fund from Lijiang City Government
文摘Based on the meteorological and hydrologic data in the Lijang （丽江） basin from 1979 to 2006, variational trend and characteristics of climate change and its effect on runoff in Yanggong （漾弓） River were examined in the study. The results show that the temperature have significantly increased in the drainage basin during the past 28 years. The average temperature increased markedly from 1979 to 2006, and the increase of temperature in winter was higher than those in other seasons. The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the same period, suggesting that the increase mainly occurred in spring and summer while the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest. On the basis of the above study, we found that the increasing trend in runoff was more significant than the increase in precipitation in the study area. That was the synactic results of variation of groundwater, ice-snow meltwater and precipitation caused by global climate change.
基金supported by the special climate change in 2010 of the China Meteorological Administration (No. ccfs-2010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41275097)
文摘The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region; rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend; annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing; the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s; the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased.
基金This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606403)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20070103)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41822502)the CAS–PKU Joint Research Program
文摘In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.
基金This study was funded by the Quebec Ministry of Forests,Wildlife,and Parks(contrats de service de recherche forestier 142332156-2018-A and 142332174-E:PI:E.Thiffault)by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council through a Discovery Grant to E.Thiffault(grant number RGPIN-2018-05755).
文摘Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.
