In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level...The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level since 1961.All four seasons were warmer than normal,with spring and autumn both recording their highest temperatures since 1961.Additionally,the TGR recorded 57.2 high-temperature days in 2024,reaching a historic high since 1961 and exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 2.4 days.Annual rainfall was 11.2%below normal,with spring,summer,and autumn all being drier than normal.However,the number of heavy rain days was slightly higher than normal.The annual mean wind speed in the TGR ranked as the second-highest since 1961,only slightly lower than in 2022.The annual mean relative humidity was below normal and the number of fog days across large areas of the TGR decreased compared to 2023.In 2024,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature events characterized by exceptional intensity and prolonged duration,accompanied by generally severe meteorological drought conditions.During the year,the TGR also experienced frequent and intense cooling events,an early onset of heavy rainfall(including severe convective weather),and exceptionally extreme rainstorm events.展开更多
In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift an...In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.展开更多
In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xi...In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.展开更多
As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate c...As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.展开更多
The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio...The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio State University,Columbus,Ohio.These hybrid events convened 79 participants from 15 nations to foster international collaboration on Antarctic meteorology,climate research,and forecasting.The WAMC featured presentations on automatic weather stations,numerical weather prediction,Antarctic sea ice dynamics,and extreme weather events.The YOPP-SH meeting emphasized the positive impacts of enhanced observations during the 2022 Winter Special Observing Period(SOP)on forecast accuracy and addressed the transition toward the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services(PCAPS)initiative.The outcomes reflect significant advancements in polar meteorological research and underscore the importance of sustained collaborative efforts,including improved observational networks and advanced modeling systems,to address the unique challenges of Antarctic meteorology.Future workshops will continue to support and expand upon these critical themes.展开更多
In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Pe...In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 1985.Forty years later,in February 2024,China’s fifth research station,Qinling Station,commenced operations on Inexpress-ible Island near Terra Nova Bay.展开更多
Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather an...Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.展开更多
In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substa...The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial change in the land-use of the islands.However,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is lacking.This study analyzed the characteristics of local climate changes on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 re-analysis.Furthermore,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this study.The findings revealed that the 10-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.11℃from 1961 to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1961–2020 was approximately 14.84 days per decade.The diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per decade.The rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021 led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1)per decade.Consequently,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds increased.Additionally,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001 to 2016 and then rebounded.The study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate change evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.展开更多
In the context of global warming, the increasing wildfire frequency has become a critical climate research focus in North America. This study used the Community Earth System Model(CESM 1.2) to investigate the impacts ...In the context of global warming, the increasing wildfire frequency has become a critical climate research focus in North America. This study used the Community Earth System Model(CESM 1.2) to investigate the impacts of 20thcentury wildfires on North American climate and hydrology. Summer represents the peak wildfire season in North America, with the Gulf of Mexico and Midwest regions experiencing the most severe effects. Wildfires not only damage vegetation during the fire season but also extend prolonged impacts into non-fire periods, showing distinct seasonal variations. In spring, wildfires increase surface albedo, triggering a cooling effect through enhanced snow cover and delayed snowmelt. Conversely, summer and autumn surface warming stems primarily from wildfire-suppressed vegetation transpiration. Warming near the Gulf of Mexico enhances moisture transport and precipitation, particularly in summer and autumn. Reduced evaporation and increased precipitation from the Gulf of Mexico significantly altered the hydrological cycle across North America, leading to increased runoff continent-wide.展开更多
The year 2024 witnessed remarkable climatic anomalies across China,characterized by pronounced warm and wet conditions.The annual mean temperature soared to a record high since 1951,with seasonal temperatures in sprin...The year 2024 witnessed remarkable climatic anomalies across China,characterized by pronounced warm and wet conditions.The annual mean temperature soared to a record high since 1951,with seasonal temperatures in spring,summer,and autumn all exceeding historical extremes.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation ranked as the fourth highest on record,with all four seasons experiencing above-average rainfall.Notably,the Yangtze River Basin and Jiangnan region encountered their most intense precipitation event since 1961.Extreme weather events were particularly striking:An unusually early and severe heatwave swept through central and eastern China,becoming the second most intense high-temperature event in recorded history.Autumn typhoon activity also displayed exceptional intensity,with Typhoon Yagi triggering significant impacts in Hainan,Guangdong,and Guangxi.Although drought conditions were generally mild overall,notable seasonal and regional disparities emerged,especially in the winter–spring droughts affecting southwestern China.Conversely,cold outbreaks occurred more frequently than usual,and convective weather events exhibited heightened activity.Moreover,dust storm activity remained relatively limited.展开更多
Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 ...Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were analyzed.For the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past decade.In 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on record.The average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during summer.Rainfall in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and 2023.Annual rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the region.In contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire year.The average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two years.However,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to 2022.In 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring chill.Analysis indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.展开更多
In recent years, the world has faced rising global temperatures, accumulative pollution, and energy crises, stimulating scientists worldwide to strive for eco-friendly and cost-effective solutions. Biochar has materia...In recent years, the world has faced rising global temperatures, accumulative pollution, and energy crises, stimulating scientists worldwide to strive for eco-friendly and cost-effective solutions. Biochar has materialized as a favorable tool for environmental remediation, indicating efficacy as an efficient sorbent substance for both inorganic and organic pollutants in environmental field. These unique properties exclude improved surface functionality, porous morphology, large specific surface area (SSA), cation exchange capacity (CEC), robust adsorption capabilities, environmental stability, and embedded micronutrients. Biochar exhibited potential characteristics for environmental oversight, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, and soil fertility improvement. This review explores the impact of fundamental factors such as retention time, pyrolysis temperature, gas flow rate, and reactor design on biochar yield and properties. Collected data revealed the various applications of biochar, ranging from waste management and construction materials to the adsorptive removal of hydrocarbon lubricants from aqueous media, contaminant immobilization, and carbon sequestration. It has played mostly a significant share in climate change mitigation and an important role in soil amendments. Biochar improves soil improvement by increasing water retention (10%–30%), carbon sequestration, soil surface functionality, and providing high surface area with chemical stability. The assessment also reports the prospects and contests associated with biochar application uses in various agriculture cropping ecosystems. Inclusive, this review highlights the multifaceted characteristics of biochar as an adjustable on top of a sustainable solution addressing greenhouse gas emission, carbon sequestration, and environmental stresses. However, further research is needed to understand its long-term impacts and optimal applications fully.展开更多
In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
The Regional Climate Model(RegCM)proves valuable for climate analysis and has been applied to a wide range of climate change aspects and other environmental issues at a regional scale.The model also demonstrated succe...The Regional Climate Model(RegCM)proves valuable for climate analysis and has been applied to a wide range of climate change aspects and other environmental issues at a regional scale.The model also demonstrated success in diverse areas of urban research,including urban heat island studies,extreme climate events analysis,assessing urban resilience,and evaluating urbanization impacts on climate and air quality.Recently,more studies have been conducted in utilizing RegCM to address climate change in cities,due to its enhanced ability over the years to capture meteorological phenomena at city scales.However,there are many challenges associated with its implementation in meso-scale research,which are attributed to various shortcomings and thus create room for further improvement in the model.This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the evolution of the RegCM over the years and its customisation across various parameters,demonstrating its versatility in urban climate studies and underscoring the model’s pivotal role in addressing multifaceted challenges in urban environments.By addressing these aspects,the paper offers valuable insights and recommendations for researchers seeking to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of urban climate simulations using the RegCM system,thereby contributing to the advancement of urban climate science and sustainability.展开更多
This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble...This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d’Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period (1981-2005). Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km<sup>2</sup> to 134,960 km<sup>2</sup> depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country’s economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.展开更多
Recent advances in the bridging roles played by the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are reviewed in terms of the remote influence of circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean on Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Os...Recent advances in the bridging roles played by the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are reviewed in terms of the remote influence of circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean on Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events,and in a clear link between the tropical oceans and Asian climate anomalies.The authors firstly introduce how the winter and spring anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean affect the seasonal transition over the South Asian monsoon region and subsequent ENSO events on the interannual timescale.A distinct negative sensible heating-baroclinic structure in May over the TP is found to provide an intermediate bridging effect in this Atlantic-Asian-Pacific connection.In summer,the North Atlantic Oscillation is significantly correlated with the variations of East China summer rainfall,and it is the TP’s latent heating that plays the bridging role within.On the other hand,such a TP bridging effect also exists in the connection from the tropical oceans to extreme precipitation events over eastern China in summer,and from the midlatitude wave train to the biweekly oscillation of South China rainfall in spring.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
基金supported by the Innovation and Development Special Project of the China Meteorological Administration[grant number CXFZ2024J071]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2023YFC3206001].
文摘The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level since 1961.All four seasons were warmer than normal,with spring and autumn both recording their highest temperatures since 1961.Additionally,the TGR recorded 57.2 high-temperature days in 2024,reaching a historic high since 1961 and exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 2.4 days.Annual rainfall was 11.2%below normal,with spring,summer,and autumn all being drier than normal.However,the number of heavy rain days was slightly higher than normal.The annual mean wind speed in the TGR ranked as the second-highest since 1961,only slightly lower than in 2022.The annual mean relative humidity was below normal and the number of fog days across large areas of the TGR decreased compared to 2023.In 2024,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature events characterized by exceptional intensity and prolonged duration,accompanied by generally severe meteorological drought conditions.During the year,the TGR also experienced frequent and intense cooling events,an early onset of heavy rainfall(including severe convective weather),and exceptionally extreme rainstorm events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42005029 and 41701103)the China Meteorological Administration Special Foundation for Innovation and Development (Grant No.CXFZ2024Q007)。
文摘In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFF0804704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42130604,No.42105044+1 种基金Major Projects of the Ministry of Education's Key Research Bases of Humanities and Social Sciences,No.22JJD770020Social Scienceof Northwest University,No.21XNFH007。
文摘In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82025030,No.72394404)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3702700)the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control of China(No.DQGG0401).
文摘As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
基金support from the Office of Polar Programs of the National Science Foundation(Grant Nos.2205398,2233182,1951720,1951603,2301362).
文摘The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio State University,Columbus,Ohio.These hybrid events convened 79 participants from 15 nations to foster international collaboration on Antarctic meteorology,climate research,and forecasting.The WAMC featured presentations on automatic weather stations,numerical weather prediction,Antarctic sea ice dynamics,and extreme weather events.The YOPP-SH meeting emphasized the positive impacts of enhanced observations during the 2022 Winter Special Observing Period(SOP)on forecast accuracy and addressed the transition toward the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services(PCAPS)initiative.The outcomes reflect significant advancements in polar meteorological research and underscore the importance of sustained collaborative efforts,including improved observational networks and advanced modeling systems,to address the unique challenges of Antarctic meteorology.Future workshops will continue to support and expand upon these critical themes.
文摘In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 1985.Forty years later,in February 2024,China’s fifth research station,Qinling Station,commenced operations on Inexpress-ible Island near Terra Nova Bay.
基金in part supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,42405147 and 42475054)in part by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)。
文摘Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A6001,42075059)Specific Research Fund of The Innovation Platform for Academicians of Hainan Province(YSPTZX202143)+1 种基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Meteorological Service(GRMC2020M29)。
文摘The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial change in the land-use of the islands.However,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is lacking.This study analyzed the characteristics of local climate changes on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 re-analysis.Furthermore,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this study.The findings revealed that the 10-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.11℃from 1961 to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1961–2020 was approximately 14.84 days per decade.The diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per decade.The rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021 led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1)per decade.Consequently,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds increased.Additionally,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001 to 2016 and then rebounded.The study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate change evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175022)。
文摘In the context of global warming, the increasing wildfire frequency has become a critical climate research focus in North America. This study used the Community Earth System Model(CESM 1.2) to investigate the impacts of 20thcentury wildfires on North American climate and hydrology. Summer represents the peak wildfire season in North America, with the Gulf of Mexico and Midwest regions experiencing the most severe effects. Wildfires not only damage vegetation during the fire season but also extend prolonged impacts into non-fire periods, showing distinct seasonal variations. In spring, wildfires increase surface albedo, triggering a cooling effect through enhanced snow cover and delayed snowmelt. Conversely, summer and autumn surface warming stems primarily from wildfire-suppressed vegetation transpiration. Warming near the Gulf of Mexico enhances moisture transport and precipitation, particularly in summer and autumn. Reduced evaporation and increased precipitation from the Gulf of Mexico significantly altered the hydrological cycle across North America, leading to increased runoff continent-wide.
文摘The year 2024 witnessed remarkable climatic anomalies across China,characterized by pronounced warm and wet conditions.The annual mean temperature soared to a record high since 1951,with seasonal temperatures in spring,summer,and autumn all exceeding historical extremes.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation ranked as the fourth highest on record,with all four seasons experiencing above-average rainfall.Notably,the Yangtze River Basin and Jiangnan region encountered their most intense precipitation event since 1961.Extreme weather events were particularly striking:An unusually early and severe heatwave swept through central and eastern China,becoming the second most intense high-temperature event in recorded history.Autumn typhoon activity also displayed exceptional intensity,with Typhoon Yagi triggering significant impacts in Hainan,Guangdong,and Guangxi.Although drought conditions were generally mild overall,notable seasonal and regional disparities emerged,especially in the winter–spring droughts affecting southwestern China.Conversely,cold outbreaks occurred more frequently than usual,and convective weather events exhibited heightened activity.Moreover,dust storm activity remained relatively limited.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2023YFC3206001]the Three Gorges Project Comprehensive Monitoring Program for Operational Safety[grant number SK2023019]which funded by the Ministry of Water Resources of China.
文摘Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were analyzed.For the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past decade.In 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on record.The average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during summer.Rainfall in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and 2023.Annual rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the region.In contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire year.The average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two years.However,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to 2022.In 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring chill.Analysis indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.
基金Deanship of Scientific Research(DSR)at King Faisal University,Saudi Arabia,under project number KFU241939.
文摘In recent years, the world has faced rising global temperatures, accumulative pollution, and energy crises, stimulating scientists worldwide to strive for eco-friendly and cost-effective solutions. Biochar has materialized as a favorable tool for environmental remediation, indicating efficacy as an efficient sorbent substance for both inorganic and organic pollutants in environmental field. These unique properties exclude improved surface functionality, porous morphology, large specific surface area (SSA), cation exchange capacity (CEC), robust adsorption capabilities, environmental stability, and embedded micronutrients. Biochar exhibited potential characteristics for environmental oversight, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, and soil fertility improvement. This review explores the impact of fundamental factors such as retention time, pyrolysis temperature, gas flow rate, and reactor design on biochar yield and properties. Collected data revealed the various applications of biochar, ranging from waste management and construction materials to the adsorptive removal of hydrocarbon lubricants from aqueous media, contaminant immobilization, and carbon sequestration. It has played mostly a significant share in climate change mitigation and an important role in soil amendments. Biochar improves soil improvement by increasing water retention (10%–30%), carbon sequestration, soil surface functionality, and providing high surface area with chemical stability. The assessment also reports the prospects and contests associated with biochar application uses in various agriculture cropping ecosystems. Inclusive, this review highlights the multifaceted characteristics of biochar as an adjustable on top of a sustainable solution addressing greenhouse gas emission, carbon sequestration, and environmental stresses. However, further research is needed to understand its long-term impacts and optimal applications fully.
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
文摘The Regional Climate Model(RegCM)proves valuable for climate analysis and has been applied to a wide range of climate change aspects and other environmental issues at a regional scale.The model also demonstrated success in diverse areas of urban research,including urban heat island studies,extreme climate events analysis,assessing urban resilience,and evaluating urbanization impacts on climate and air quality.Recently,more studies have been conducted in utilizing RegCM to address climate change in cities,due to its enhanced ability over the years to capture meteorological phenomena at city scales.However,there are many challenges associated with its implementation in meso-scale research,which are attributed to various shortcomings and thus create room for further improvement in the model.This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the evolution of the RegCM over the years and its customisation across various parameters,demonstrating its versatility in urban climate studies and underscoring the model’s pivotal role in addressing multifaceted challenges in urban environments.By addressing these aspects,the paper offers valuable insights and recommendations for researchers seeking to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of urban climate simulations using the RegCM system,thereby contributing to the advancement of urban climate science and sustainability.
文摘This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d’Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period (1981-2005). Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km<sup>2</sup> to 134,960 km<sup>2</sup> depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country’s economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.
基金supported by the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 91937302].
文摘Recent advances in the bridging roles played by the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are reviewed in terms of the remote influence of circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean on Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events,and in a clear link between the tropical oceans and Asian climate anomalies.The authors firstly introduce how the winter and spring anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean affect the seasonal transition over the South Asian monsoon region and subsequent ENSO events on the interannual timescale.A distinct negative sensible heating-baroclinic structure in May over the TP is found to provide an intermediate bridging effect in this Atlantic-Asian-Pacific connection.In summer,the North Atlantic Oscillation is significantly correlated with the variations of East China summer rainfall,and it is the TP’s latent heating that plays the bridging role within.On the other hand,such a TP bridging effect also exists in the connection from the tropical oceans to extreme precipitation events over eastern China in summer,and from the midlatitude wave train to the biweekly oscillation of South China rainfall in spring.
