Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
IN his video speech to the United Nations Climate Summit held in New York on September 24,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s new Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)—the efforts taken by each country...IN his video speech to the United Nations Climate Summit held in New York on September 24,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s new Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)—the efforts taken by each country to reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.展开更多
Compound extreme climate events may profoundly affect human activity in the Yangtze River Basin.This study analyzed the long-term spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of compound heatwave-drought and heatwave-w...Compound extreme climate events may profoundly affect human activity in the Yangtze River Basin.This study analyzed the long-term spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of compound heatwave-drought and heatwave-waterlogging events in the Yangtze River Basin using multi-period historical observation data and future scenario climate model data.It also examined the changes in population exposure to compound extreme climate events in the basin and their driving factors by combining population statistics and forecast data.The results show that the occurrence days of compound heatwave-drought and heatwave-waterlogging events in the Yangtze River Basin have shown a significant upward trend both in historical periods and future scenarios,accompanied by a marked expansion in the affected areas.Compared to historical periods,population exposure in the Yangtze River Basin under future scenarios is expected to increase by 1.5–2 times,primarily concentrated in the key urban areas of the basin.The main factors driving the changes in population exposure are the increased frequency of extreme climate events and population decline in future scenarios.These findings provide scientific evidence for early mitigation of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin.展开更多
In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types： the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The ...Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types： the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude （except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China）. The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of 〉10%, 〉20% and 〉30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.展开更多
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level...The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level since 1961.All four seasons were warmer than normal,with spring and autumn both recording their highest temperatures since 1961.Additionally,the TGR recorded 57.2 high-temperature days in 2024,reaching a historic high since 1961 and exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 2.4 days.Annual rainfall was 11.2%below normal,with spring,summer,and autumn all being drier than normal.However,the number of heavy rain days was slightly higher than normal.The annual mean wind speed in the TGR ranked as the second-highest since 1961,only slightly lower than in 2022.The annual mean relative humidity was below normal and the number of fog days across large areas of the TGR decreased compared to 2023.In 2024,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature events characterized by exceptional intensity and prolonged duration,accompanied by generally severe meteorological drought conditions.During the year,the TGR also experienced frequent and intense cooling events,an early onset of heavy rainfall(including severe convective weather),and exceptionally extreme rainstorm events.展开更多
In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift an...In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.展开更多
Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change,including rising temperatures,unpredictable precipitation,cyclones,droughts,and saltwater intrusion.These factors collectively threaten agri...Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change,including rising temperatures,unpredictable precipitation,cyclones,droughts,and saltwater intrusion.These factors collectively threaten agricultural productivity and food security.This study examines the relationship between farmers’perceptions and observable climatic trends,with a focus on the sustainability of food systems and the promotion of adaptable farming techniques in Bagerhat District,Bangladesh.A mixed-methods strategy was employed,incorporating household surveys(a total of 110 purposively selected farmers),focus group discussions,key informant interviews,and climatic data analysis.The Mann-Kendall test,Sen’s slope estimator,precipitation concentration index(PCI),and standardized rainfall anomaly index(SRAI)were employed to analyze climate trends from 1991 to 2020.The findings showed that more than 70.00%of respondents indicated that summers were becoming warmer,over 50.00%reported that winters were becoming colder,and 63.00%stated that yearly precipitation was decreasing.Farmers reported an increase in flood occurrences and a decline in the predictability of precipitation.Between 2011 and 2019,the output of most rice varieties decreased,with the exception of high-yielding Aman rice and hybrid Boro rice.The results also showed that 60.00%of respondents reported experiencing salinity intrusion,and 57.00%attributed significant yield losses to salinity.Planting salt-tolerant rice varieties(such as BRRI Dhan 67 and Binadhan-10),practicing homestead vegetable cultivation,and moderately integrating shrimp aquaculture were also common adaptive measures.To improve long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh,we suggest growing more salt-tolerant crop varieties,promoting vertical and homestead gardening,enhancing seed systems that are resilient to climate change,and educating farmers on the use of climate-smart farming methods.This study highlights the importance of aligning farmers’perceptions with observed climatic data to design effective adaptation strategies.The findings of this study can guide policy-makers and development practitioners in strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh.展开更多
An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented.In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃(10 yr)-1...An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented.In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃(10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃(10 yr)-1.This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring.In the past 50 years in China,at least 27%of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization.Overall,no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years.Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years.The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country,while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends.The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly,but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China,but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period(10001300 AD).Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods,with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years.The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas(GHG)concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide.The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years,which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover.However,natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century.Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China.They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios.Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections,however,especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.展开更多
In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xi...In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.展开更多
As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate c...As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.展开更多
The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio...The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio State University,Columbus,Ohio.These hybrid events convened 79 participants from 15 nations to foster international collaboration on Antarctic meteorology,climate research,and forecasting.The WAMC featured presentations on automatic weather stations,numerical weather prediction,Antarctic sea ice dynamics,and extreme weather events.The YOPP-SH meeting emphasized the positive impacts of enhanced observations during the 2022 Winter Special Observing Period(SOP)on forecast accuracy and addressed the transition toward the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services(PCAPS)initiative.The outcomes reflect significant advancements in polar meteorological research and underscore the importance of sustained collaborative efforts,including improved observational networks and advanced modeling systems,to address the unique challenges of Antarctic meteorology.Future workshops will continue to support and expand upon these critical themes.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.展开更多
In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Pe...In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 1985.Forty years later,in February 2024,China’s fifth research station,Qinling Station,commenced operations on Inexpress-ible Island near Terra Nova Bay.展开更多
Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional...Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.展开更多
A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components a...A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.展开更多
Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather an...Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.展开更多
In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substa...The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial change in the land-use of the islands.However,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is lacking.This study analyzed the characteristics of local climate changes on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 re-analysis.Furthermore,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this study.The findings revealed that the 10-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.11℃from 1961 to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1961–2020 was approximately 14.84 days per decade.The diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per decade.The rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021 led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1)per decade.Consequently,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds increased.Additionally,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001 to 2016 and then rebounded.The study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate change evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘IN his video speech to the United Nations Climate Summit held in New York on September 24,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s new Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)—the efforts taken by each country to reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42301029,42371354)the Scientific Research Start-up Fund for New Young Faculty,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan(No.CUGXQN2307)China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(No.CXFZ2023J051).
文摘Compound extreme climate events may profoundly affect human activity in the Yangtze River Basin.This study analyzed the long-term spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of compound heatwave-drought and heatwave-waterlogging events in the Yangtze River Basin using multi-period historical observation data and future scenario climate model data.It also examined the changes in population exposure to compound extreme climate events in the basin and their driving factors by combining population statistics and forecast data.The results show that the occurrence days of compound heatwave-drought and heatwave-waterlogging events in the Yangtze River Basin have shown a significant upward trend both in historical periods and future scenarios,accompanied by a marked expansion in the affected areas.Compared to historical periods,population exposure in the Yangtze River Basin under future scenarios is expected to increase by 1.5–2 times,primarily concentrated in the key urban areas of the basin.The main factors driving the changes in population exposure are the increased frequency of extreme climate events and population decline in future scenarios.These findings provide scientific evidence for early mitigation of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
基金National Natural Sciences Foundation of China,No.40771033Special Item Funds of Climate Change Supported by China Meteorological Administration,No.CCSF-09-11
文摘Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types： the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude （except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China）. The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of 〉10%, 〉20% and 〉30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
基金supported by the Innovation and Development Special Project of the China Meteorological Administration[grant number CXFZ2024J071]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2023YFC3206001].
文摘The Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024.The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6℃,which was 1.2℃above normal and marked the highest level since 1961.All four seasons were warmer than normal,with spring and autumn both recording their highest temperatures since 1961.Additionally,the TGR recorded 57.2 high-temperature days in 2024,reaching a historic high since 1961 and exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 2.4 days.Annual rainfall was 11.2%below normal,with spring,summer,and autumn all being drier than normal.However,the number of heavy rain days was slightly higher than normal.The annual mean wind speed in the TGR ranked as the second-highest since 1961,only slightly lower than in 2022.The annual mean relative humidity was below normal and the number of fog days across large areas of the TGR decreased compared to 2023.In 2024,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature events characterized by exceptional intensity and prolonged duration,accompanied by generally severe meteorological drought conditions.During the year,the TGR also experienced frequent and intense cooling events,an early onset of heavy rainfall(including severe convective weather),and exceptionally extreme rainstorm events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42005029 and 41701103)the China Meteorological Administration Special Foundation for Innovation and Development (Grant No.CXFZ2024Q007)。
文摘In the summer of 2024, following a strong El Ni?o event in the preceding winter, the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic recorded their highest SSTs since 1961, along with a significant westward shift and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Under these conditions, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961,and was hit by a series of high-impact extreme weather and climate events. From 9 June to 2 July, southern China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event that exceeded the well-known 1998 summer precipitation event in both duration and impact scope, resulting in devastating floods in the Yangtze River basin. Subsequently, in early to midJuly, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin suffered from a severe drought–flood abrupt alternation event, heavily affecting Henan and Shandong. Meanwhile, southern China underwent a widespread heatwave event lasting 74 days, ranking as the second most intense since 1961. From late July to the end of August, northern China faced unusually frequent heavy precipitation events, with cumulative precipitation reaching the second highest for the same period since 1961, causing floods in many rivers of northern China. This study provides a timely summary and assessment of the characteristics and impacts of these extreme events. It serves as a reference for climate change research, including mechanism analysis, numerical simulation,and climate event attribution, and also offers valuable insights for improving meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
基金supported by the Research Grant of Military Institute of Science and Technology,Bangladesh。
文摘Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change,including rising temperatures,unpredictable precipitation,cyclones,droughts,and saltwater intrusion.These factors collectively threaten agricultural productivity and food security.This study examines the relationship between farmers’perceptions and observable climatic trends,with a focus on the sustainability of food systems and the promotion of adaptable farming techniques in Bagerhat District,Bangladesh.A mixed-methods strategy was employed,incorporating household surveys(a total of 110 purposively selected farmers),focus group discussions,key informant interviews,and climatic data analysis.The Mann-Kendall test,Sen’s slope estimator,precipitation concentration index(PCI),and standardized rainfall anomaly index(SRAI)were employed to analyze climate trends from 1991 to 2020.The findings showed that more than 70.00%of respondents indicated that summers were becoming warmer,over 50.00%reported that winters were becoming colder,and 63.00%stated that yearly precipitation was decreasing.Farmers reported an increase in flood occurrences and a decline in the predictability of precipitation.Between 2011 and 2019,the output of most rice varieties decreased,with the exception of high-yielding Aman rice and hybrid Boro rice.The results also showed that 60.00%of respondents reported experiencing salinity intrusion,and 57.00%attributed significant yield losses to salinity.Planting salt-tolerant rice varieties(such as BRRI Dhan 67 and Binadhan-10),practicing homestead vegetable cultivation,and moderately integrating shrimp aquaculture were also common adaptive measures.To improve long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh,we suggest growing more salt-tolerant crop varieties,promoting vertical and homestead gardening,enhancing seed systems that are resilient to climate change,and educating farmers on the use of climate-smart farming methods.This study highlights the importance of aligning farmers’perceptions with observed climatic data to design effective adaptation strategies.The findings of this study can guide policy-makers and development practitioners in strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant Nos.2007BAC29B02,2007BAC03A01 and GYHY201206012)
文摘An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented.In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃(10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃(10 yr)-1.This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring.In the past 50 years in China,at least 27%of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization.Overall,no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years.Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years.The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country,while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends.The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly,but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China,but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period(10001300 AD).Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods,with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years.The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas(GHG)concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide.The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years,which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover.However,natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century.Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China.They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios.Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections,however,especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFF0804704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42130604,No.42105044+1 种基金Major Projects of the Ministry of Education's Key Research Bases of Humanities and Social Sciences,No.22JJD770020Social Scienceof Northwest University,No.21XNFH007。
文摘In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82025030,No.72394404)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3702700)the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control of China(No.DQGG0401).
文摘As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
基金support from the Office of Polar Programs of the National Science Foundation(Grant Nos.2205398,2233182,1951720,1951603,2301362).
文摘The 19th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)and the 8th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH)meeting were held in June 2024 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center,The Ohio State University,Columbus,Ohio.These hybrid events convened 79 participants from 15 nations to foster international collaboration on Antarctic meteorology,climate research,and forecasting.The WAMC featured presentations on automatic weather stations,numerical weather prediction,Antarctic sea ice dynamics,and extreme weather events.The YOPP-SH meeting emphasized the positive impacts of enhanced observations during the 2022 Winter Special Observing Period(SOP)on forecast accuracy and addressed the transition toward the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services(PCAPS)initiative.The outcomes reflect significant advancements in polar meteorological research and underscore the importance of sustained collaborative efforts,including improved observational networks and advanced modeling systems,to address the unique challenges of Antarctic meteorology.Future workshops will continue to support and expand upon these critical themes.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0600701）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41675069）, and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China （CCSF201731）.
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.
文摘In November 1984,China launched its first expedition to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent,culminating in the establishment of its first year-round research station—Great Wall Station—on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 1985.Forty years later,in February 2024,China’s fifth research station,Qinling Station,commenced operations on Inexpress-ible Island near Terra Nova Bay.
基金supported by the Special Research Program for Public-Welfare Forestry(Grant No.200804001)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421407)
文摘Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.
文摘A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.
基金in part supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,42405147 and 42475054)in part by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)。
文摘Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A6001,42075059)Specific Research Fund of The Innovation Platform for Academicians of Hainan Province(YSPTZX202143)+1 种基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Meteorological Service(GRMC2020M29)。
文摘The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate research.Over the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial change in the land-use of the islands.However,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is lacking.This study analyzed the characteristics of local climate changes on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 re-analysis.Furthermore,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this study.The findings revealed that the 10-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.11℃from 1961 to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1961–2020 was approximately 14.84 days per decade.The diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per decade.The rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021 led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1)per decade.Consequently,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds increased.Additionally,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001 to 2016 and then rebounded.The study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate change evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.
