Since launched in March 2002,the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity mission has brought a new era to the studies of large-scale mass transport and redistribution within different component...Since launched in March 2002,the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity mission has brought a new era to the studies of large-scale mass transport and redistribution within different components of the Earth system,including the atmosphere,hydrosphere,ocean,cryosphere,and solid Earth,and greatly improved our understanding of the Earth climate system and solid Earth geophysics.This paper provides a comprehensive review of GRACE satellite gravimetry and its geophysical applications in monitoring and quantifying water mass changes in various components of the global water cycle,ice mass balance of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers,global sea level change,and mass redistribution in solid Earth.We also discuss in detail different GRACE data products(e.g.,standard spherical harmonic and mascon solutions),commonly used GRACE data post-processing methods,major challenges in using different GRACE data and how to correctly address those challenges.展开更多
Monitoring glacier mass balance is crucial to managing water resources and also to understanding climate change for the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study extracted the inter-annual oscillations of...Monitoring glacier mass balance is crucial to managing water resources and also to understanding climate change for the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study extracted the inter-annual oscillations of glacier mass over Central Asia from the first ten principal components（S-PCs） of filtered variability via multichannel singular spectral analysis（MSSA）, based on gridded data of glacier mass inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data obtained from July 2002 to March 2015. Two significant cycles of glacier mass balance oscillations were identified. The first cycle with a period of 6.1-year accounted for 54.5% of the total variance and the second with a period of 2.3-year accounted for 4.3%. The 6.1-year oscillation exhibited a stronger variability compared with the 2.3-year oscillation. For the 6.1-year oscillation, the results from lagged cross-correlation function suggested that there were significant correlations between glacier mass balances and precipitation variations with the precipitation variations leading the response of glacier mass balances by 9–16 months.展开更多
At seasonal and intraseasonal time scales, polar motions are mainly excited by angular momentum fluctuations due to mass redistributions and relative motions in the atmosphere, oceans, and continental water, snow, and...At seasonal and intraseasonal time scales, polar motions are mainly excited by angular momentum fluctuations due to mass redistributions and relative motions in the atmosphere, oceans, and continental water, snow, and ice, which are usually provided by various global atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological models（some with meteorological observations assimilated; e.g., NCEP, ECCO, ECMWF, OMCT and LSDM etc.）. Unfortunately, these model outputs are far from perfect and have notable discrepancies with respect to polar motion observations, due to non-uniform distributions of meteorological observatories,as well as theoretical approximations and non-global mass conservation in these models. In this study,the LDC（Least Difference Combination） method is adopted to obtain some improved atmospheric,oceanic, and hydrological/crospheric angular momentum（AAM, OAM and HAM/CAM, respectively）functions and excitation functions（termed as the LDCgsm solutions）. Various GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment） and SLR（Satellite Laser Ranging） geopotential data are adopted to correct the non-global mass conservation problem, while polar motion data are used as general constraints. The LDCgsm solutions can reveal not only periodic fluctuations but also secular trends in AAM, OAM and HAM/CAM, and are in better agreement with polar motion observations, reducing the unexplained excitation to the level of about 5.5 mas（standard derivation value; about 1/5-1/4 of those corresponding to the original model outputs）.展开更多
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） has been measuring temporal and spatial variations of mass redistribution within the Earth system since2002. As large earthquakes cause significant mass changes on ...The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） has been measuring temporal and spatial variations of mass redistribution within the Earth system since2002. As large earthquakes cause significant mass changes on and under the Earth＇s surface,GRACE provides a new means from space to observe mass redistribution due to earthquake deformations. GRACE serves as a good complement to other earthquake measurements because of its extensive spatial coverage and being free from terrestrial restriction. During its over 10 years mission,GRACE has successfully detected seismic gravitational changes of several giant earthquakes,which include the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake,2010 Maule（Chile） earthquake,and 2011 Tohoku-Oki（Japan） earthquake. In this review,we describe by examples how to process GRACE timevariable gravity data to retrieve seismic signals,and summarize the results of recent studies that apply GRACE observations to detect co- and post-seismic signals and constrain fault slip models and viscous lithospheric structures. We also discuss major problems and give an outlook in this field of GRACE application.展开更多
Using more than 14 years of GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravimetry observations, we estimate the ice loss rate for the Patagonia Ice Field(PIF) of South America. After correcting the effec...Using more than 14 years of GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravimetry observations, we estimate the ice loss rate for the Patagonia Ice Field(PIF) of South America. After correcting the effects of glacier isostatic adjustment(GIA) and hydrological variations, the ice loss rate is -23.5 ± 8.1 Giga ton per year(Gt/yr) during the period April 2002 through December 2016, equivalent to an average ice thickness change of-1.3 m/yr if evenly distributed over PIF. The PIF ice mass change series also show obvious inter-annual variations during the entire period. For the time spans April 2002 to December 2007, January 2008 to December 2012 and January 2013 to December 2016, the ice loss rates are -26.4,-9.0 and -25.0 Gt/yr, respectively, indicating that the ice melting experienced significant slowing down and accelerating again in the past decade. Comparison with time series from temperature and precipitation data over PIF suggests that the inter-annual ice losses might not be directly correlated with the temperature changes and precipitation anomalies, and thus their interrelation is intricate. However, the dramatic ice loss acceleration in 2016(with more than 100 Gt within the first half of the year) appears closely related with the evident temperature increase and severe precipitation shortage over 2016, which are likely correlated with the strong E1 Nino event around 2016. Moreover, we compare the GRACE spherical harmonic(SH) and mass concentration(Mascon) solutions in estimating the PIF ice loss rate, and find that the Mascon result has larger uncertainty in leakage error correction,while the SH solutions can better correct leakage errors based on a constrained forward modeling iterative method. Thus the GRACE SH solutions with constrained forward modeling recovery are recommended to evaluating the ice mass change of PIF or other glacier regions with relatively smaller spatial scales.展开更多
The observed Earth’s polar motion on decadal time scales has long been conjectured to be excited by the exchange of equatorial angular momentum between the solid mantle and the fluid outer core,via the mechanism of e...The observed Earth’s polar motion on decadal time scales has long been conjectured to be excited by the exchange of equatorial angular momentum between the solid mantle and the fluid outer core,via the mechanism of electromagnetic(EM)core-mantle coupling.However,past estimations of the EM coupling torque from surface geomagnetic observations is too weak to account for the observed decadal polar motion.Our recent estimations from numerical geodynamo simulations have shown the opposite.In this paper,we re-examine in detail the EM coupling mechanism and the properties of the magnetic field in the electrically conducting lower mantle(characterized by a thin D '-layer at the base of the mantle).Our simulations find that the toroidal field in the D'-layer from the induction and convection of the toroidal field in the outer core could be potentially much stronger than that from the advection of the poloidal field in the outer core.The former,however,cannot be inferred from geomagnetic observations at the Earth’s surface,and is missing in previous EM torque estimated from geomagnetic observations.Our deduction suggests further that this field could make the actual EM coupling torque sufficiently strong,at approximately 5×1019 Nm,to excite,and hence explain,the decadal polar motion to magnitude of approximately 10 mas.展开更多
Using dynamics equation, acceleration of out-flowing ion during dipolarization in a substorm in the magneto-tail is simulated. The main results show that: (1) The ion distribution function that is initially exponentia...Using dynamics equation, acceleration of out-flowing ion during dipolarization in a substorm in the magneto-tail is simulated. The main results show that: (1) The ion distribution function that is initially exponentially decreasing with increasing speed is turned into a single peak distribution, and with time the peak moves towards higher speed. (2) The peak moves along V⊥ faster than that along V||, and the ion acceleration mainly occurs in the middle of the dipolarization. (3) The higher the initial energy, the faster the peak moves, and the more energy is obtained by the ions. The ion energy theoretically calculated is as high as about 102 keV, this is consistent with the observation.展开更多
The global oceans play important roles in exciting the annual polar motion besides the atmosphere. However, it is still unclear about how large the regional oceans contribute to the annual polar motion. We investigate...The global oceans play important roles in exciting the annual polar motion besides the atmosphere. However, it is still unclear about how large the regional oceans contribute to the annual polar motion. We investigate systemically the contributions of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans to the excitation of the annual polar motion, based on the output data of ocean current velocity field and ocean bottom pressure field from ＂Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean （ECCO）＂ ocean circulation model over the period 1993-2005. The result shows that due to its particular location and shape, the Atlantic Ocean makes a less significant contribution to the x-component of the annual polar motion excitation than the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while all these three oceans contribute to the y-component of the annual polar motion excitation to some extent.展开更多
A set of nonlinear fluid equations which include the effects of ion gyroradius is derived to describe Alfven vortex. The correction of finite ion gyroradius to the Alfven vortex in the inertial region is much more sig...A set of nonlinear fluid equations which include the effects of ion gyroradius is derived to describe Alfven vortex. The correction of finite ion gyroradius to the Alfven vortex in the inertial region is much more significant than that in the kinetic region. The amplitude of the vortex is enhanced in both regions. The scale of the vortex in the kinetic region becomes larger whereas it becomes smaller in the inertial region.展开更多
The process of accurately defining and outlining mare basalt units is nec- essary for constraining the stratigraphy and ages of basalt units, which are used to determine the duration and the flux of lunar volcanism. W...The process of accurately defining and outlining mare basalt units is nec- essary for constraining the stratigraphy and ages of basalt units, which are used to determine the duration and the flux of lunar volcanism. We use a combination of Clementine＇s five-band ultraviolet/visible data and Ti02 and FeO abundance distri- bution maps to define homogenous mare basalt units and characterize their composi- tional variations （with maturity） in the Aristarchus region. With 20 groups of distinct mare basaltic soils identified using the method in this paper, six additional spectrally defined areas and five basaltic units are constructed, and their mineralogic quanfiza- tion values provide new constraints on their temporal and spatial evolution. Our results indicate that the Aristarchus region has diverse basalt units and a complex history of volcanic evolution. We also demonstrate that the techniques, from which spectrally distinct mare basalts can be mapped, performed well in this study and can be confi- dently expanded to other mare regions of the Moon.展开更多
Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper, we evaluated the ab...Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent Arctic sea ice and sensitivity to CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, using decadal simulations (1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice, in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks processes.展开更多
By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the var...By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the variations can be explained by the seasonal vertical crustal movements caused by atmospheric pressure variation and mass loading redistribution of non-tidal ocean loading, snow, and soil moisture. Nevertheless, there exists a systematic discrepancy between GPS deduced result and the counterpart predicted by combining various geophysical sources. Much longer time series of GPS site coordinates and further studies are still needed to give out a reasonable interpretation for this discrepancy.展开更多
The analytic perturbation solutions to the motions of a planetary orbiter given in this paper are effective for 0e1, where e is the orbital eccentricity of the orbiter. In the solution, it is assumed that the rotation...The analytic perturbation solutions to the motions of a planetary orbiter given in this paper are effective for 0e1, where e is the orbital eccentricity of the orbiter. In the solution, it is assumed that the rotation of the central body is slow, and its astronomical background is clear. Examples for such planets in the solar system are Venus and Mercury. The perturbation solution is tested numerically on two Venusian orbiters with eccentric orbits, PVO and Magellan, and found to be effective.展开更多
基金supported by the NASA GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Projects (under contract # NNL14AAOOC and JPL subcontract # 1478584)NASA ESI Program (NNX12AM86G and NNX17AG96G)NASA GRACE Science Team Program(NNX12AJ97G)
文摘Since launched in March 2002,the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity mission has brought a new era to the studies of large-scale mass transport and redistribution within different components of the Earth system,including the atmosphere,hydrosphere,ocean,cryosphere,and solid Earth,and greatly improved our understanding of the Earth climate system and solid Earth geophysics.This paper provides a comprehensive review of GRACE satellite gravimetry and its geophysical applications in monitoring and quantifying water mass changes in various components of the global water cycle,ice mass balance of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers,global sea level change,and mass redistribution in solid Earth.We also discuss in detail different GRACE data products(e.g.,standard spherical harmonic and mascon solutions),commonly used GRACE data post-processing methods,major challenges in using different GRACE data and how to correctly address those challenges.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB957703, 2013CB733301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41274025, 41174064)
文摘Monitoring glacier mass balance is crucial to managing water resources and also to understanding climate change for the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study extracted the inter-annual oscillations of glacier mass over Central Asia from the first ten principal components（S-PCs） of filtered variability via multichannel singular spectral analysis（MSSA）, based on gridded data of glacier mass inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data obtained from July 2002 to March 2015. Two significant cycles of glacier mass balance oscillations were identified. The first cycle with a period of 6.1-year accounted for 54.5% of the total variance and the second with a period of 2.3-year accounted for 4.3%. The 6.1-year oscillation exhibited a stronger variability compared with the 2.3-year oscillation. For the 6.1-year oscillation, the results from lagged cross-correlation function suggested that there were significant correlations between glacier mass balances and precipitation variations with the precipitation variations leading the response of glacier mass balances by 9–16 months.
基金supported in parts by the National 973 Project of China(No.2013CB733301 and 2013CB733305)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41474022,41210006 and 41374022)+2 种基金the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Surveying and Mapping,No.201512001)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(No.2042016kf0146)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2014T70737)
文摘At seasonal and intraseasonal time scales, polar motions are mainly excited by angular momentum fluctuations due to mass redistributions and relative motions in the atmosphere, oceans, and continental water, snow, and ice, which are usually provided by various global atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological models（some with meteorological observations assimilated; e.g., NCEP, ECCO, ECMWF, OMCT and LSDM etc.）. Unfortunately, these model outputs are far from perfect and have notable discrepancies with respect to polar motion observations, due to non-uniform distributions of meteorological observatories,as well as theoretical approximations and non-global mass conservation in these models. In this study,the LDC（Least Difference Combination） method is adopted to obtain some improved atmospheric,oceanic, and hydrological/crospheric angular momentum（AAM, OAM and HAM/CAM, respectively）functions and excitation functions（termed as the LDCgsm solutions）. Various GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment） and SLR（Satellite Laser Ranging） geopotential data are adopted to correct the non-global mass conservation problem, while polar motion data are used as general constraints. The LDCgsm solutions can reveal not only periodic fluctuations but also secular trends in AAM, OAM and HAM/CAM, and are in better agreement with polar motion observations, reducing the unexplained excitation to the level of about 5.5 mas（standard derivation value; about 1/5-1/4 of those corresponding to the original model outputs）.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41204017,41228004,and 41274025)the Shanghai Postdoctoral Sustentation Fund (No. 13R21417900)
文摘The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） has been measuring temporal and spatial variations of mass redistribution within the Earth system since2002. As large earthquakes cause significant mass changes on and under the Earth＇s surface,GRACE provides a new means from space to observe mass redistribution due to earthquake deformations. GRACE serves as a good complement to other earthquake measurements because of its extensive spatial coverage and being free from terrestrial restriction. During its over 10 years mission,GRACE has successfully detected seismic gravitational changes of several giant earthquakes,which include the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake,2010 Maule（Chile） earthquake,and 2011 Tohoku-Oki（Japan） earthquake. In this review,we describe by examples how to process GRACE timevariable gravity data to retrieve seismic signals,and summarize the results of recent studies that apply GRACE observations to detect co- and post-seismic signals and constrain fault slip models and viscous lithospheric structures. We also discuss major problems and give an outlook in this field of GRACE application.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (17ZR1435600)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University (16-01-05)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFB0501405)
文摘Using more than 14 years of GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravimetry observations, we estimate the ice loss rate for the Patagonia Ice Field(PIF) of South America. After correcting the effects of glacier isostatic adjustment(GIA) and hydrological variations, the ice loss rate is -23.5 ± 8.1 Giga ton per year(Gt/yr) during the period April 2002 through December 2016, equivalent to an average ice thickness change of-1.3 m/yr if evenly distributed over PIF. The PIF ice mass change series also show obvious inter-annual variations during the entire period. For the time spans April 2002 to December 2007, January 2008 to December 2012 and January 2013 to December 2016, the ice loss rates are -26.4,-9.0 and -25.0 Gt/yr, respectively, indicating that the ice melting experienced significant slowing down and accelerating again in the past decade. Comparison with time series from temperature and precipitation data over PIF suggests that the inter-annual ice losses might not be directly correlated with the temperature changes and precipitation anomalies, and thus their interrelation is intricate. However, the dramatic ice loss acceleration in 2016(with more than 100 Gt within the first half of the year) appears closely related with the evident temperature increase and severe precipitation shortage over 2016, which are likely correlated with the strong E1 Nino event around 2016. Moreover, we compare the GRACE spherical harmonic(SH) and mass concentration(Mascon) solutions in estimating the PIF ice loss rate, and find that the Mascon result has larger uncertainty in leakage error correction,while the SH solutions can better correct leakage errors based on a constrained forward modeling iterative method. Thus the GRACE SH solutions with constrained forward modeling recovery are recommended to evaluating the ice mass change of PIF or other glacier regions with relatively smaller spatial scales.
基金supported by NASA Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Program (W.K.and J.C.)NASA Geomagnetic Infrastructure Fund+4 种基金NASA GSFC SEEC Fund (W.K.)NASA GRACE Project (J.C.)Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology via grant 106-2116-M-001-013(B. F. Chao)NASA GSFC fellowship programIES of Academia Sinica for support of visiting tenure
文摘The observed Earth’s polar motion on decadal time scales has long been conjectured to be excited by the exchange of equatorial angular momentum between the solid mantle and the fluid outer core,via the mechanism of electromagnetic(EM)core-mantle coupling.However,past estimations of the EM coupling torque from surface geomagnetic observations is too weak to account for the observed decadal polar motion.Our recent estimations from numerical geodynamo simulations have shown the opposite.In this paper,we re-examine in detail the EM coupling mechanism and the properties of the magnetic field in the electrically conducting lower mantle(characterized by a thin D '-layer at the base of the mantle).Our simulations find that the toroidal field in the D'-layer from the induction and convection of the toroidal field in the outer core could be potentially much stronger than that from the advection of the poloidal field in the outer core.The former,however,cannot be inferred from geomagnetic observations at the Earth’s surface,and is missing in previous EM torque estimated from geomagnetic observations.Our deduction suggests further that this field could make the actual EM coupling torque sufficiently strong,at approximately 5×1019 Nm,to excite,and hence explain,the decadal polar motion to magnitude of approximately 10 mas.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.49674242 and 49834040。
文摘Using dynamics equation, acceleration of out-flowing ion during dipolarization in a substorm in the magneto-tail is simulated. The main results show that: (1) The ion distribution function that is initially exponentially decreasing with increasing speed is turned into a single peak distribution, and with time the peak moves towards higher speed. (2) The peak moves along V⊥ faster than that along V||, and the ion acceleration mainly occurs in the middle of the dipolarization. (3) The higher the initial energy, the faster the peak moves, and the more energy is obtained by the ions. The ion energy theoretically calculated is as high as about 102 keV, this is consistent with the observation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality.
文摘The global oceans play important roles in exciting the annual polar motion besides the atmosphere. However, it is still unclear about how large the regional oceans contribute to the annual polar motion. We investigate systemically the contributions of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans to the excitation of the annual polar motion, based on the output data of ocean current velocity field and ocean bottom pressure field from ＂Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean （ECCO）＂ ocean circulation model over the period 1993-2005. The result shows that due to its particular location and shape, the Atlantic Ocean makes a less significant contribution to the x-component of the annual polar motion excitation than the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while all these three oceans contribute to the y-component of the annual polar motion excitation to some extent.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.49784003and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.
文摘A set of nonlinear fluid equations which include the effects of ion gyroradius is derived to describe Alfven vortex. The correction of finite ion gyroradius to the Alfven vortex in the inertial region is much more significant than that in the kinetic region. The amplitude of the vortex is enhanced in both regions. The scale of the vortex in the kinetic region becomes larger whereas it becomes smaller in the inertial region.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The process of accurately defining and outlining mare basalt units is nec- essary for constraining the stratigraphy and ages of basalt units, which are used to determine the duration and the flux of lunar volcanism. We use a combination of Clementine＇s five-band ultraviolet/visible data and Ti02 and FeO abundance distri- bution maps to define homogenous mare basalt units and characterize their composi- tional variations （with maturity） in the Aristarchus region. With 20 groups of distinct mare basaltic soils identified using the method in this paper, six additional spectrally defined areas and five basaltic units are constructed, and their mineralogic quanfiza- tion values provide new constraints on their temporal and spatial evolution. Our results indicate that the Aristarchus region has diverse basalt units and a complex history of volcanic evolution. We also demonstrate that the techniques, from which spectrally distinct mare basalts can be mapped, performed well in this study and can be confi- dently expanded to other mare regions of the Moon.
文摘Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent Arctic sea ice and sensitivity to CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, using decadal simulations (1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice, in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks processes.
基金This work was supported by the Natioanl "973" Project (Grant No. G1998040703), the "95" Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19833030), the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (Grant No. 40174008) and
文摘By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the variations can be explained by the seasonal vertical crustal movements caused by atmospheric pressure variation and mass loading redistribution of non-tidal ocean loading, snow, and soil moisture. Nevertheless, there exists a systematic discrepancy between GPS deduced result and the counterpart predicted by combining various geophysical sources. Much longer time series of GPS site coordinates and further studies are still needed to give out a reasonable interpretation for this discrepancy.
文摘The analytic perturbation solutions to the motions of a planetary orbiter given in this paper are effective for 0e1, where e is the orbital eccentricity of the orbiter. In the solution, it is assumed that the rotation of the central body is slow, and its astronomical background is clear. Examples for such planets in the solar system are Venus and Mercury. The perturbation solution is tested numerically on two Venusian orbiters with eccentric orbits, PVO and Magellan, and found to be effective.
