The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this pa...The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC_GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC_GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 （MOM4）]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC_GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-201 I. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC_GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that of World Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC_GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC_GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of E1 Nifio Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of E1 Nino Modoki are also reproduced.展开更多
Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is prop...Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is proposed and tested through assuming that the model uncertainty should reasonably describe the fast nonlinear error growth of the convection-allowing model,due to the fast developing character and strong nonlinearity of convective events.The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters(CNOP-P)is applied in this study.Also,an ensemble approach is adopted to solve the CNOP-P problem.By using five locally developed strong convective events that occurred in pre-rainy season of South China,the most sensitive parameters were detected based on CNOP-P,which resulted in the maximum variations in precipitation.A formulation of model uncertainty is designed by adding stochastic perturbations into these sensitive parameters.Through comparison ensemble experiments by using all the 13 heavy rainfall cases that occurred in the flood season of South China in 2017,the advantages of the CNOP-P-based method are examined and verified by comparing with the well-utilized stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)scheme.The results indicate that the CNOP-P-based method has potential in improving the under-dispersive problem of the current CAEPS.展开更多
This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates （SEs）, and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove syste...This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates （SEs）, and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps. First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions （MPs） over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation （OI）-based merging scheme （referred as the HL-OI scheme） is used to combine unbiased gahge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge--satellite-model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d （Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution）, with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period （2011- 14） demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality. Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD （GPCP one-degree daily） show that the consistencies between B MEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events.展开更多
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The res...The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature （SAT）, particularly in that of Nifio3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate （the control） by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 （LICOM2）. The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts.展开更多
A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The da...A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China, NOx emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT（Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport） and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5（Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software） models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent,which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-based models will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models.展开更多
Accurate wetland delineation is the basis of wetland definition and mapping, and is of great importance for wetland management and research. The Zoige Plateau on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was used as a research site f...Accurate wetland delineation is the basis of wetland definition and mapping, and is of great importance for wetland management and research. The Zoige Plateau on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was used as a research site for research on alpine wetland delineation. Several studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern and dynamics of these alpine wetlands, but none have addressed the issues of wetland boundaries. The objective of this work was to discriminate the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands by coupling ecological methods and satellite observations. The combination of Landsat 8 images and supervised classification was an effective method for rapid identification of alpine wetlands in the Zoig6 Plateau. Wet meadow was relatively stable compared with hydric soils and wetland hydrology and could be used as a primary indicator for discriminating the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands. A slope of less than 4.5° could be used as the threshold value for wetland delineation. The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） in 434 field sites showed that a threshold value of 0.3 could distinguish grasslands from emergent marsh and wet meadow in September. The median normalized difference water index （NDWI） of emergent marsh remained more stable than that of wet meadow and grasslands during the period from September until July of the following year. The index of mean density in wet meadow zones was higher than the emergent and upland zones. Over twice the number of species occurred in the wet meadow zone compared with the emergent zone, and close to the value of upland zone. Alpine wetlands in the three reserves in 2014 covered 1175.19 kin2 with a classification accuracy of 75.6%. The combination of ecological methods and remote sensing technology will play an important role in wetland delineation at medium and small scales. The correct differentiation between wet meadow and grasslands is the key to improving the accuracy of future wetland delineation.展开更多
A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the ...A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the covariant equations of the a-coordinate to create a one-term PGF （the covariant method） can reduce the PGF errors. This study investigates the factors inducing the PGF errors of these two methods, through geometric analysis and idealized experiments. The geometric analysis first demonstrates that the terrain slope and the vertical pressure gradient can induce the PGF errors of the classic method, and then generalize the effect of the terrain slope to the effect of the slope of each vertical layer （φ）. More importantly, a new factor, the direction of PGF （a）, is proposed by the geometric analysis, and the effects of φ and a are quantified by tan φ.tan a. When tan φ.tan a is greater than 1/9 or smaller than -10/9, the two terms of PGF of the classic method are of the same order but opposite in sign, and then the PGF errors of the classic method are large. Finally, the effects of three factors on inducing the PGF errors of the classic method are validated by a series of idealized experiments using various terrain types and pressure fields. The experimental results also demonstrate that the PGF errors of the covariant method are affected little by the three factors.展开更多
Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),...Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),were investigated in this study.The geographical pattern of MCS distribution over East Asia shows several high-frequency centers at low latitudes,including the Indo-China peninsula,the Bay of Bengal,the Andaman Sea,the Brahmaputra river delta,the south China coastal region,and the Philippine Islands.There are several middle-frequency centers in the middle latitudes,e.g.,the central-east of the Tibet Plateau,the Plateau of west Sichuan,Mount Wuyi,and the Sayan Mountains in Russia;whereas in Lake Baikal,the Tarim Basin,the Taklimakan Desert,the Sea of Japan,and the Sea of Okhotsk,rare MCS distributions are observed.MCSs are most intensely active in summer,with the highest monthly frequency in July,which is partly associated with the breaking out and prevailing of the summer monsoon in East Asia.An obvious diurnal cycle feature is also found in MCS activities,which shows that MCSs are triggered in the afternoon,mature in the evening,and dissipate at night.MCS patterns over East Asia can be characterized as small,short-lived,or elongated,which move slowly and usually lead to heavy rains or floods.展开更多
Global warming is unequivocal, as is manifested in three internationally known global temperature records with the global average temperature rising at a rate of 0.70-0.75℃ per 100 years during 1910-2009 [Wen et al.,...Global warming is unequivocal, as is manifested in three internationally known global temperature records with the global average temperature rising at a rate of 0.70-0.75℃ per 100 years during 1910-2009 [Wen et al., 2011]. In other words, the earth has warmed more than 0.8℃ since the Industrial Revolution. If it is true that 2℃ above pre-industrial level is a threshold of climate ＂safety＂, we will have to confront a serious situation where less than 1.2℃ warmins is oermissible in the future [Liu et al.. 2011].展开更多
Tropical forests store more than half of the world's terrestrial carbon(C)pool and account for one-third of global net primary productivity(NPP).Many terrestrial biosphere models(TBMs)estimate increased productivi...Tropical forests store more than half of the world's terrestrial carbon(C)pool and account for one-third of global net primary productivity(NPP).Many terrestrial biosphere models(TBMs)estimate increased productivity in tropical forests throughout the 21st century due to CO_(2)fertilization.However,phosphorus(P)liaitations on vegetation photosynthesis and productivity could significantly reduce the CO_(2)fertilization effect.Here,we used a carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus coupled model(Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model;DLEM-CNP)with heterogeneous maximum carboxylation rates to examine how P limitation has affected C fluxes in tropical forests during1860-2018.Our model results showed that the inclusion of the P processes enhanced model performance in simulating ecosystem productivity.We further compared the simulations from DLEM-CNP,DLEM-CN,and DLEMC and the results showed that the inclusion of P processes reduced the CO_(2)fertilization effect on gross primary production(GPP)by 25%and 45%,and net ecosystem production(NEP)by 28%and 41%,respectively,relative to CN-only and C-on ly models.From the 1860s to the 2010s,the DLEM-CNP estimated that in tropical forests GPP increased by 17%,plant respiration(Ra)increased by 18%,ecosystem respiration(Rh)increased by 13%,NEP increased by 121%per unit area,respectively.Additionally,factorial experiments with DLEM-CNP showed that the enhanced NPP benefiting from the CO_(2) fertilization effect had been offset by 135%due to deforestation from the 1860s to the 2010s.Our study highlights the importance of P limitation on the C cycle and the weakened CO_(2)fertilization effect resulting from P limitation in tropical forests.展开更多
Although many of the first-generation Digital Earth systems have proven to be quite useful for the modeling and visualization of geospatial objects relevant to the Earth＇s surface and near-surface, they were not desi...Although many of the first-generation Digital Earth systems have proven to be quite useful for the modeling and visualization of geospatial objects relevant to the Earth＇s surface and near-surface, they were not designed for the purpose of modeling and application in geological or atmospheric space. There is a pressing need for a new Digital Earth system that can process geospatial information with full dimensionality. In this paper, we present a new Digital Earth system, termed SolidEarth, as an alternative virtual globe for the modeling and visualization of the whole Earth space including its surface, interior, and exterior space. SolidEarth consists of four functional components： modeling in geographical space, modeling in geological space, modeling in atmo- spheric space, and, integrated visualization and analysis. SolidEarth has a comprehensive treatment to the third spatial dimension and a series of sophisticated 3D spatial analysis functions. Therefore, it is well-suited to the volumetric representation and visual analysis of the inner/ outer spheres in Earth space. SolidEarth can be used in a number of fields such as geoscience research and education, the construction of Digital Earth applications, and other professional practices of Earth science.展开更多
Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more stud...Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more studies are needed to narrow down the uncertainty resulting from spatiotemporal accuracy of O_(3) metrics and extrapolation methods.Based on a high spatial resolution(0.1°)hourly surface O_(3) data,here we analyzed the spatiotemporal O_(3) pollution patterns and impacts on yield,production and economic losses for wheat,rice,and maize in China during 2005–2020.The accumulated O_(3) exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(AOT40)increased by 10%during 2005–2019,and a decrease of 5.56%was observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdowns.Rising O_(3) pollution reduced national level wheat,rice and maize yields by 14.51%±0.43%,11.10%±0.6%,and 3.99%±0.11%,respectively.A Business-As-Usual projection suggested that the relative yield loss(RYL)would potentially reach 8%–18%at the national scale by 2050 if no emission control is implemented.COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 led to significantly reduced RYL for maize(0.52%)and rice(2.17%)but not for wheat(0.11%),with the largest reduction(1.88%–9.4%)in North China Plain,highlighting the potential benefits of emission control.Our findings provided robust evidence that rising O_(3) pollution has significantly affected China’s crop yields,production and economic losses,underscoring the urgent need to curb O_(3) pollution to safeguard food security,particularly in densely populated and industrialized regions.展开更多
Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMI...Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.展开更多
This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted deb...This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.展开更多
Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temp...Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.展开更多
Seasonal soil freeze-thaw events may enhance soil nitrogen transformation and thus stimulate nitrous oxide （N2O） emissions in cold regions. However, the mechanisms of soil N2O emission during the freeze-thaw cycling...Seasonal soil freeze-thaw events may enhance soil nitrogen transformation and thus stimulate nitrous oxide （N2O） emissions in cold regions. However, the mechanisms of soil N2O emission during the freeze-thaw cycling in the field remain unclear. We evaluated N2O emissions and soil biotic and abiotic factors in maize and paddy fields over 20 months in Northeast China, and the structural equation model （SEM） was used to determine which factors affected N2O production during non-growing season. Our results verified that the seasonal freeze-thaw cycles mitigated the available soil nitrogen and carbon limitation during spring thawing period, but simultaneously increased the gaseous N2O-N losses at the annual time scale under field condition. The N2O-N cumulative losses during the non-growing season amounted to 0.71 and 0.55 kg N ha 1 for the paddy and maize fields, respectively, and contributed to 66 and 18% of the annual total. The highest emission rates （199.2- 257.4 μg m-2 h-1） were observed during soil thawing for both fields, but we did not observe an emission peak during soil freezing in early winter. Although the pulses of N2O emission in spring were short-lived （18 d）, it resulted in approximately 80% of the non-growing season N2O-N loss. The N2O burst during the spring thawing was triggered by the combined impact of high soil moisture, flush available nitrogen and carbon, and rapid recovery of microbial biomass. SEM analysis indicated that the soil moisture, available substrates including NH4＋ and dissolved organic carbon （DOC）, and microbial biomass nitrogen （MBN） explained 32, 36, 16 and 51% of the N2O flux variation, respectively, during the non-growing season. Our results suggested that N2O emission during the spring thawing make a vital contribution of the annual nitrogen budget, and the vast seasonally frozen and snow-covered croplands will have high potential to exert a positive feedback on climate change considering the sensitive response of nitrogen biogeochemical cycling to the freeze-thaw disturbance.展开更多
To meet China＇s CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed. Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups ...To meet China＇s CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed. Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups based on economy, emissions, and reduction potential indicators. Under the equity principle, the two most developed groups axe assigned the highest reduction targets （55% and 65%, respectively）. However, their reduction potent!al is limited. Under the efficiency principle, the two groups with the highest reduction potential take the highest targets （48% and 61%, respectively）, but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with a prominent reduction potential takes the highest target （54%）, and the 2nd and the 3rd groups with large industry scales take the second highest target （49%）. However, under all the three allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and the 6th groups, which have a relatively low economic ability, emissions, and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanisms and policy instruments should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and sur...Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and surface precipitation, and reduce the uncertainty of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs. In this paper, we implement cloud microphysical schemes including two-moment Ar and Re considering relative dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution into version 4.1 of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics＇s atmospheric GCM （IAP AGCM 4.1）, which is the atmospheric component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences＇ Earth System Model. Analysis of the effects of different schemes shows that the newly implemented schemes can improve both the simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings, as compared to the standard scheme, in lAP AGCM 4.1. The new schemes also effectively enhance the large-scale precipitation, especially over low latitudes, although the influences of total precipitation are insignificant for different schemes. Further studies show that similar results can be found with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.展开更多
This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basi...This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program （2010CB428400）, where the major research focuses are detection and attribution, extreme floods and droughts, and adaptation of water resources management. Preliminary conclusions can be summarized into four points： 1） Water cycling and water resource changes in the EMRC are rather complicated as the region is impacted by natural changes relating to the strong monsoon influence and also by climate change impacts caused by CO2 emissions due to anthropogenic forcing; 2） the rate of natural variability contributing to the influence on precipitation accounts for about 70%, and the rate from anthropogenic forcing accounts for 30% on average in the EMRC. However, with future scenarios of increasing CO2 emissions, the contribution rate from anthropogenic forcing will increase and water resources management will experience greater issues related to the climate change impact; 3） Extreme floods and droughts in the EMRC will be an increasing trend, based on IPCC-AR5 scenarios; 4） Along with rising temperatures of 1 ~C in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase to about 4% of total water consumption. Therefore, climate change is making a significant impact and will be a risk to the EMRC, which covers almost all of the eight major river basins, such as the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, and Pearl River, and to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （middle line）. To ensure water security, it is urgently necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and reduce the vulnerability of water resources and associated risks.展开更多
The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN routine.The southeast coastline[110 ...The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN routine.The southeast coastline[110 to 122°E)with most landfall TCs was selected as the key region,which was divided into 12 subsections with 1°intervals of longitude.The study period was from July to September in each year.The result showed that the average sustaining time of TCs making landfall on the subsections east of 118°E is longer than those west of 118°E.Before landfall,the averaged TC intensity in the subsections east of118°E is stronger than that west of it.After landfall,however,the difference between the west and east is not significant.The index of destructive potential for the period before/after landfall was defined as TDP1/TDP2.The maximum of TDP1/TDP2 occurred in the subsection of[119,120°E)/[110,111°E).The ENSO impact on the frequency and average location of landfall TC over the whole region at 110 to 122°E is not obvious,but the effect varies with specific subsections.There is little differences of averaged TDP1 in the subsections between different phases of ENSO events,but the averaged TDP2 is larger in the warm events than that in the cold events.The rainstorm days of each station caused by TCs in different subsections were counted respectively.The results suggested that the rainstorm days of the subsections east of 118°E are much more than those west of 118°E.The larger values are primarily distributed at the subsections of[119,120°E)and[110,111°E).展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41306005)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955903)the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams
文摘The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC_GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC_GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 （MOM4）]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC_GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-201 I. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC_GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that of World Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC_GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC_GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of E1 Nifio Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of E1 Nino Modoki are also reproduced.
文摘Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is proposed and tested through assuming that the model uncertainty should reasonably describe the fast nonlinear error growth of the convection-allowing model,due to the fast developing character and strong nonlinearity of convective events.The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters(CNOP-P)is applied in this study.Also,an ensemble approach is adopted to solve the CNOP-P problem.By using five locally developed strong convective events that occurred in pre-rainy season of South China,the most sensitive parameters were detected based on CNOP-P,which resulted in the maximum variations in precipitation.A formulation of model uncertainty is designed by adding stochastic perturbations into these sensitive parameters.Through comparison ensemble experiments by using all the 13 heavy rainfall cases that occurred in the flood season of South China in 2017,the advantages of the CNOP-P-based method are examined and verified by comparing with the well-utilized stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)scheme.The results indicate that the CNOP-P-based method has potential in improving the under-dispersive problem of the current CAEPS.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275076, 41305057, 41175066, 41175086, and 40905046)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 8144046)+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2009AA122005 and 2009BAC51B03)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB 951902)
文摘This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates （SEs）, and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps. First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions （MPs） over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation （OI）-based merging scheme （referred as the HL-OI scheme） is used to combine unbiased gahge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge--satellite-model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d （Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution）, with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period （2011- 14） demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality. Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD （GPCP one-degree daily） show that the consistencies between B MEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events.
基金the Ministry of Science and Technology of China for the National High-tech R&D Program(863 Program:Grant No.2010AA012304)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program:Grant No.2011CB309704)
文摘The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature （SAT）, particularly in that of Nifio3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate （the control） by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 （LICOM2）. The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41275124, 51278272)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8142011)+1 种基金the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China (No. 201209007)the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) research program
文摘A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China, NOx emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT（Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport） and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5（Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software） models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent,which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-based models will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41201445,41103041)National Science and Technology Support Program(No.2012BAJ24B01)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2009AA12200307)
文摘Accurate wetland delineation is the basis of wetland definition and mapping, and is of great importance for wetland management and research. The Zoige Plateau on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was used as a research site for research on alpine wetland delineation. Several studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern and dynamics of these alpine wetlands, but none have addressed the issues of wetland boundaries. The objective of this work was to discriminate the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands by coupling ecological methods and satellite observations. The combination of Landsat 8 images and supervised classification was an effective method for rapid identification of alpine wetlands in the Zoig6 Plateau. Wet meadow was relatively stable compared with hydric soils and wetland hydrology and could be used as a primary indicator for discriminating the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands. A slope of less than 4.5° could be used as the threshold value for wetland delineation. The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） in 434 field sites showed that a threshold value of 0.3 could distinguish grasslands from emergent marsh and wet meadow in September. The median normalized difference water index （NDWI） of emergent marsh remained more stable than that of wet meadow and grasslands during the period from September until July of the following year. The index of mean density in wet meadow zones was higher than the emergent and upland zones. Over twice the number of species occurred in the wet meadow zone compared with the emergent zone, and close to the value of upland zone. Alpine wetlands in the three reserves in 2014 covered 1175.19 kin2 with a classification accuracy of 75.6%. The combination of ecological methods and remote sensing technology will play an important role in wetland delineation at medium and small scales. The correct differentiation between wet meadow and grasslands is the key to improving the accuracy of future wetland delineation.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,grant number 2015CB954102]National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers41305095 and 41175064]
文摘A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the covariant equations of the a-coordinate to create a one-term PGF （the covariant method） can reduce the PGF errors. This study investigates the factors inducing the PGF errors of these two methods, through geometric analysis and idealized experiments. The geometric analysis first demonstrates that the terrain slope and the vertical pressure gradient can induce the PGF errors of the classic method, and then generalize the effect of the terrain slope to the effect of the slope of each vertical layer （φ）. More importantly, a new factor, the direction of PGF （a）, is proposed by the geometric analysis, and the effects of φ and a are quantified by tan φ.tan a. When tan φ.tan a is greater than 1/9 or smaller than -10/9, the two terms of PGF of the classic method are of the same order but opposite in sign, and then the PGF errors of the classic method are large. Finally, the effects of three factors on inducing the PGF errors of the classic method are validated by a series of idealized experiments using various terrain types and pressure fields. The experimental results also demonstrate that the PGF errors of the covariant method are affected little by the three factors.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973Program,Grant No.2011CB309704)the Ministry of Finance of China and the China Meteorological Administration for the Special Project of Meteorological Sector(Grant No.GYHY(QX)201006014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40875022)
文摘Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),were investigated in this study.The geographical pattern of MCS distribution over East Asia shows several high-frequency centers at low latitudes,including the Indo-China peninsula,the Bay of Bengal,the Andaman Sea,the Brahmaputra river delta,the south China coastal region,and the Philippine Islands.There are several middle-frequency centers in the middle latitudes,e.g.,the central-east of the Tibet Plateau,the Plateau of west Sichuan,Mount Wuyi,and the Sayan Mountains in Russia;whereas in Lake Baikal,the Tarim Basin,the Taklimakan Desert,the Sea of Japan,and the Sea of Okhotsk,rare MCS distributions are observed.MCSs are most intensely active in summer,with the highest monthly frequency in July,which is partly associated with the breaking out and prevailing of the summer monsoon in East Asia.An obvious diurnal cycle feature is also found in MCS activities,which shows that MCSs are triggered in the afternoon,mature in the evening,and dissipate at night.MCS patterns over East Asia can be characterized as small,short-lived,or elongated,which move slowly and usually lead to heavy rains or floods.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950104)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No. 9-XDA05090104)
文摘Global warming is unequivocal, as is manifested in three internationally known global temperature records with the global average temperature rising at a rate of 0.70-0.75℃ per 100 years during 1910-2009 [Wen et al., 2011]. In other words, the earth has warmed more than 0.8℃ since the Industrial Revolution. If it is true that 2℃ above pre-industrial level is a threshold of climate ＂safety＂, we will have to confront a serious situation where less than 1.2℃ warmins is oermissible in the future [Liu et al.. 2011].
基金partially supported by the US National Science Foundation(1903722,1243232)。
文摘Tropical forests store more than half of the world's terrestrial carbon(C)pool and account for one-third of global net primary productivity(NPP).Many terrestrial biosphere models(TBMs)estimate increased productivity in tropical forests throughout the 21st century due to CO_(2)fertilization.However,phosphorus(P)liaitations on vegetation photosynthesis and productivity could significantly reduce the CO_(2)fertilization effect.Here,we used a carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus coupled model(Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model;DLEM-CNP)with heterogeneous maximum carboxylation rates to examine how P limitation has affected C fluxes in tropical forests during1860-2018.Our model results showed that the inclusion of the P processes enhanced model performance in simulating ecosystem productivity.We further compared the simulations from DLEM-CNP,DLEM-CN,and DLEMC and the results showed that the inclusion of P processes reduced the CO_(2)fertilization effect on gross primary production(GPP)by 25%and 45%,and net ecosystem production(NEP)by 28%and 41%,respectively,relative to CN-only and C-on ly models.From the 1860s to the 2010s,the DLEM-CNP estimated that in tropical forests GPP increased by 17%,plant respiration(Ra)increased by 18%,ecosystem respiration(Rh)increased by 13%,NEP increased by 121%per unit area,respectively.Additionally,factorial experiments with DLEM-CNP showed that the enhanced NPP benefiting from the CO_(2) fertilization effect had been offset by 135%due to deforestation from the 1860s to the 2010s.Our study highlights the importance of P limitation on the C cycle and the weakened CO_(2)fertilization effect resulting from P limitation in tropical forests.
基金Acknowledgements This research was supported by the National Science and Technology Program of China （Grant No. SinoProbe-08）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40902093）, the National Social Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 07CZZ019）, the Development Foundation of Experimental Teaching Equipment in East China Normal University （Grant No. 64100010） and the Open Foundation of Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration （Grant No. SHUES2011A06）. We would like to thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive suggestions for improving the paper.
文摘Although many of the first-generation Digital Earth systems have proven to be quite useful for the modeling and visualization of geospatial objects relevant to the Earth＇s surface and near-surface, they were not designed for the purpose of modeling and application in geological or atmospheric space. There is a pressing need for a new Digital Earth system that can process geospatial information with full dimensionality. In this paper, we present a new Digital Earth system, termed SolidEarth, as an alternative virtual globe for the modeling and visualization of the whole Earth space including its surface, interior, and exterior space. SolidEarth consists of four functional components： modeling in geographical space, modeling in geological space, modeling in atmo- spheric space, and, integrated visualization and analysis. SolidEarth has a comprehensive treatment to the third spatial dimension and a series of sophisticated 3D spatial analysis functions. Therefore, it is well-suited to the volumetric representation and visual analysis of the inner/ outer spheres in Earth space. SolidEarth can be used in a number of fields such as geoscience research and education, the construction of Digital Earth applications, and other professional practices of Earth science.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFA0606001)the Ozone Formation Mechanism and Control Strategies Project of Research Center of Eco-Environmental Sciences+3 种基金Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.RCEES-CYZX-2020)the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171463)H.T.and S.P.were supported by the US National Science Foundation(No.1903722)Andrew Carnegie Fellowship(No.G-F-19–56910).
文摘Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more studies are needed to narrow down the uncertainty resulting from spatiotemporal accuracy of O_(3) metrics and extrapolation methods.Based on a high spatial resolution(0.1°)hourly surface O_(3) data,here we analyzed the spatiotemporal O_(3) pollution patterns and impacts on yield,production and economic losses for wheat,rice,and maize in China during 2005–2020.The accumulated O_(3) exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(AOT40)increased by 10%during 2005–2019,and a decrease of 5.56%was observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdowns.Rising O_(3) pollution reduced national level wheat,rice and maize yields by 14.51%±0.43%,11.10%±0.6%,and 3.99%±0.11%,respectively.A Business-As-Usual projection suggested that the relative yield loss(RYL)would potentially reach 8%–18%at the national scale by 2050 if no emission control is implemented.COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 led to significantly reduced RYL for maize(0.52%)and rice(2.17%)but not for wheat(0.11%),with the largest reduction(1.88%–9.4%)in North China Plain,highlighting the potential benefits of emission control.Our findings provided robust evidence that rising O_(3) pollution has significantly affected China’s crop yields,production and economic losses,underscoring the urgent need to curb O_(3) pollution to safeguard food security,particularly in densely populated and industrialized regions.
文摘Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41101083,41130105)Strategic Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. 2012ZD001)Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (No. 2010CB950104)
文摘This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950501-03)
文摘Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2014ZX07201-009)
文摘Seasonal soil freeze-thaw events may enhance soil nitrogen transformation and thus stimulate nitrous oxide （N2O） emissions in cold regions. However, the mechanisms of soil N2O emission during the freeze-thaw cycling in the field remain unclear. We evaluated N2O emissions and soil biotic and abiotic factors in maize and paddy fields over 20 months in Northeast China, and the structural equation model （SEM） was used to determine which factors affected N2O production during non-growing season. Our results verified that the seasonal freeze-thaw cycles mitigated the available soil nitrogen and carbon limitation during spring thawing period, but simultaneously increased the gaseous N2O-N losses at the annual time scale under field condition. The N2O-N cumulative losses during the non-growing season amounted to 0.71 and 0.55 kg N ha 1 for the paddy and maize fields, respectively, and contributed to 66 and 18% of the annual total. The highest emission rates （199.2- 257.4 μg m-2 h-1） were observed during soil thawing for both fields, but we did not observe an emission peak during soil freezing in early winter. Although the pulses of N2O emission in spring were short-lived （18 d）, it resulted in approximately 80% of the non-growing season N2O-N loss. The N2O burst during the spring thawing was triggered by the combined impact of high soil moisture, flush available nitrogen and carbon, and rapid recovery of microbial biomass. SEM analysis indicated that the soil moisture, available substrates including NH4＋ and dissolved organic carbon （DOC）, and microbial biomass nitrogen （MBN） explained 32, 36, 16 and 51% of the N2O flux variation, respectively, during the non-growing season. Our results suggested that N2O emission during the spring thawing make a vital contribution of the annual nitrogen budget, and the vast seasonally frozen and snow-covered croplands will have high potential to exert a positive feedback on climate change considering the sensitive response of nitrogen biogeochemical cycling to the freeze-thaw disturbance.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation(No.71273153)National Key Technology Research and Development Program(No.2009BAC62B01)
文摘To meet China＇s CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed. Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups based on economy, emissions, and reduction potential indicators. Under the equity principle, the two most developed groups axe assigned the highest reduction targets （55% and 65%, respectively）. However, their reduction potent!al is limited. Under the efficiency principle, the two groups with the highest reduction potential take the highest targets （48% and 61%, respectively）, but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with a prominent reduction potential takes the highest target （54%）, and the 2nd and the 3rd groups with large industry scales take the second highest target （49%）. However, under all the three allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and the 6th groups, which have a relatively low economic ability, emissions, and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanisms and policy instruments should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0601904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690115 and 41572150)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61432018)supported by the National Major Research High Performance Computing Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFB0200800)supported by a “973” project (Grant No. 2014CB441302)supported by the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research program
文摘Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and surface precipitation, and reduce the uncertainty of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs. In this paper, we implement cloud microphysical schemes including two-moment Ar and Re considering relative dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution into version 4.1 of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics＇s atmospheric GCM （IAP AGCM 4.1）, which is the atmospheric component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences＇ Earth System Model. Analysis of the effects of different schemes shows that the newly implemented schemes can improve both the simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings, as compared to the standard scheme, in lAP AGCM 4.1. The new schemes also effectively enhance the large-scale precipitation, especially over low latitudes, although the influences of total precipitation are insignificant for different schemes. Further studies show that similar results can be found with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.
基金Acknowledgment This study was supported by the National Key Basic Research Development Program Project （2010CB428400） and the Natural Science Foundation of China （51279140）.
文摘This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program （2010CB428400）, where the major research focuses are detection and attribution, extreme floods and droughts, and adaptation of water resources management. Preliminary conclusions can be summarized into four points： 1） Water cycling and water resource changes in the EMRC are rather complicated as the region is impacted by natural changes relating to the strong monsoon influence and also by climate change impacts caused by CO2 emissions due to anthropogenic forcing; 2） the rate of natural variability contributing to the influence on precipitation accounts for about 70%, and the rate from anthropogenic forcing accounts for 30% on average in the EMRC. However, with future scenarios of increasing CO2 emissions, the contribution rate from anthropogenic forcing will increase and water resources management will experience greater issues related to the climate change impact; 3） Extreme floods and droughts in the EMRC will be an increasing trend, based on IPCC-AR5 scenarios; 4） Along with rising temperatures of 1 ~C in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase to about 4% of total water consumption. Therefore, climate change is making a significant impact and will be a risk to the EMRC, which covers almost all of the eight major river basins, such as the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, and Pearl River, and to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （middle line）. To ensure water security, it is urgently necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and reduce the vulnerability of water resources and associated risks.
基金National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(2008BAK50B02)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program:2010CB428401)
文摘The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN routine.The southeast coastline[110 to 122°E)with most landfall TCs was selected as the key region,which was divided into 12 subsections with 1°intervals of longitude.The study period was from July to September in each year.The result showed that the average sustaining time of TCs making landfall on the subsections east of 118°E is longer than those west of 118°E.Before landfall,the averaged TC intensity in the subsections east of118°E is stronger than that west of it.After landfall,however,the difference between the west and east is not significant.The index of destructive potential for the period before/after landfall was defined as TDP1/TDP2.The maximum of TDP1/TDP2 occurred in the subsection of[119,120°E)/[110,111°E).The ENSO impact on the frequency and average location of landfall TC over the whole region at 110 to 122°E is not obvious,but the effect varies with specific subsections.There is little differences of averaged TDP1 in the subsections between different phases of ENSO events,but the averaged TDP2 is larger in the warm events than that in the cold events.The rainstorm days of each station caused by TCs in different subsections were counted respectively.The results suggested that the rainstorm days of the subsections east of 118°E are much more than those west of 118°E.The larger values are primarily distributed at the subsections of[119,120°E)and[110,111°E).
