The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) m...The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series.展开更多
The concentration of absorbable particulate matter less than 10 μm termed as PM10 is the most important urban air pollution index for air quality monitoring. This paper presents a space based PM10 monitoring algorith...The concentration of absorbable particulate matter less than 10 μm termed as PM10 is the most important urban air pollution index for air quality monitoring. This paper presents a space based PM10 monitoring algorithm based on QUAC （QUick atmosphere correction） for optical remote sensing data and SVR （support vector regression）. PM 10 concentration measurements from nine ground based stations in Hangzhou, China and the MODIS （moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer） images were analyzed. Experimental result indicates that the correlation between CD （correction differences） with actual measured data is better than correlation between AOD （aerosol optical depth） with measured data. In addition, the fitting performance of the SVR model established with CD and measured data is better than traditional regression models.展开更多
By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the var...By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the variations can be explained by the seasonal vertical crustal movements caused by atmospheric pressure variation and mass loading redistribution of non-tidal ocean loading, snow, and soil moisture. Nevertheless, there exists a systematic discrepancy between GPS deduced result and the counterpart predicted by combining various geophysical sources. Much longer time series of GPS site coordinates and further studies are still needed to give out a reasonable interpretation for this discrepancy.展开更多
The rotation of the earth,including the variation of the rotational rate and polar motion,represents the statement of the earth’s overall movement and interactions among the solid earth,atmosphere and ocean on a vari...The rotation of the earth,including the variation of the rotational rate and polar motion,represents the statement of the earth’s overall movement and interactions among the solid earth,atmosphere and ocean on a variety of space-time scales.They make the earth’s complex dynamical system under the conservation of angular momentum.The application and development of recent space geodetic techniques greatly promote the researches on the interactions between the earth rotation and the activities of atmosphere and ocean.This review will mainly report the progress in researches on the earth rotation and the activities of atmosphere and ocean as well as the air-sea interaction in the tropics,and prospect the direction for future theoretical investigations.展开更多
文摘The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series.
文摘The concentration of absorbable particulate matter less than 10 μm termed as PM10 is the most important urban air pollution index for air quality monitoring. This paper presents a space based PM10 monitoring algorithm based on QUAC （QUick atmosphere correction） for optical remote sensing data and SVR （support vector regression）. PM 10 concentration measurements from nine ground based stations in Hangzhou, China and the MODIS （moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer） images were analyzed. Experimental result indicates that the correlation between CD （correction differences） with actual measured data is better than correlation between AOD （aerosol optical depth） with measured data. In addition, the fitting performance of the SVR model established with CD and measured data is better than traditional regression models.
基金This work was supported by the Natioanl "973" Project (Grant No. G1998040703), the "95" Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19833030), the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (Grant No. 40174008) and
文摘By analyzing daily continuous data of Chinese Global Positioning System (GPS) fiducial network with 25 sites from 1999 to 2001, seasonal altitude variations with amplitude of 3-10 mm are detected. Most part of the variations can be explained by the seasonal vertical crustal movements caused by atmospheric pressure variation and mass loading redistribution of non-tidal ocean loading, snow, and soil moisture. Nevertheless, there exists a systematic discrepancy between GPS deduced result and the counterpart predicted by combining various geophysical sources. Much longer time series of GPS site coordinates and further studies are still needed to give out a reasonable interpretation for this discrepancy.
基金the National KeyProject (Grant No. 970231003), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 19833030 and 49634140) and Shanghai Science and Technology Foundation (Grant No. JC14012).
文摘The rotation of the earth,including the variation of the rotational rate and polar motion,represents the statement of the earth’s overall movement and interactions among the solid earth,atmosphere and ocean on a variety of space-time scales.They make the earth’s complex dynamical system under the conservation of angular momentum.The application and development of recent space geodetic techniques greatly promote the researches on the interactions between the earth rotation and the activities of atmosphere and ocean.This review will mainly report the progress in researches on the earth rotation and the activities of atmosphere and ocean as well as the air-sea interaction in the tropics,and prospect the direction for future theoretical investigations.
