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基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估
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作者 石英 徐影 +3 位作者 巢清尘 张梦然 韩振宇 王荣 《气候变化研究进展》 北大核心 2025年第3期340-352,共13页
基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的24个全球气候模式结果,预估了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5(分别代表低、中和高排放情景)3种温室气体排放情景下,南水北调西线工程区(分为水源区和受水区)未来气候变化,结果显示:在不同温室... 基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的24个全球气候模式结果,预估了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5(分别代表低、中和高排放情景)3种温室气体排放情景下,南水北调西线工程区(分为水源区和受水区)未来气候变化,结果显示:在不同温室气体排放情景下,2021—2100年水源区和受水区年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,年平均降水和极端降水(以日最大降水量表征)均以增加为主,且随着排放情景的升高,变化幅度增大。从未来变化的空间分布来看,与基准期(1995—2014年)相比,多模式集合平均结果显示水源区和受水区21世纪近期(2021—2040年)、中期(2041—2060年)和末期(2081—2100年)年平均气温均将增加,年平均降水和极端降水将增多,且增幅随时间增大。从未来3个时段区域平均的变化看,所有模式模拟水源区和受水区年平均气温相对基准期均增加,且模式间的一致性较好;模拟年平均降水和极端降水变化则显示出较大的不确定性,总体以增加为主。综合来看,水源区未来降水的变化对南水北调西线工程的规划和建设实施是有利的,但同时也需科学理解预估结果的不确定性。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调西线工程区 水源区 受水区 气候变化预估
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Effects of Tillage and Crop Residue Management on Maize Yields and Net Returns in the Central Mexican Highlands Under Drought Conditions 被引量:2
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作者 R.ROMERO-PEREZGROVAS N.VERHULST +4 位作者 D.DE LA ROSA V.HERNáNDEZ M.MAERTENS J.DECKERS B.GOVAERTS 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第4期476-486,共11页
In the subtropical highlands of Central Mexico, where the main crop is maize (Zea mays), the conventional practice (CP) involves tillage, monoculture and residue removal, leading to soil degradation and unsustaina... In the subtropical highlands of Central Mexico, where the main crop is maize (Zea mays), the conventional practice (CP) involves tillage, monoculture and residue removal, leading to soil degradation and unsustainable use of natural resources and agricultural inputs. Conservation agriculture (CA) has been proposed as a viable alternative in the region, based on reduction in tillage, retention of adequate levels of crop residues and soil surface cover and use of crop rotation. This study began in 2009 when the highlands of Central Mexico suffered from a prolonged drought during vegetative maize growth in July-August, providing an opportunity for the on-farm comparison of CA with CP under severe drought conditions which 21 climate change models projected to become more frequent. Under dry conditions, CA resulted in higher yields and net returns per hectare as early as the first and second years after adoption by farmers. As an average of 27 plots under farmers' management in 2009, the maize yields were 26% higher under CA (6.3 t ha-1) than under CP (5.0 t ha-l). 2010 was close to a normal year in terms of rainfall so yields were higher than in 2009 for both practices; in addition, the yield difference between the practices was reduced to 19% (6.8 t ha-1 for CA vs. 5.7 t ha-1 for CP). When all the 2009 and 2010 observations were analyzed in a modified stability analysis, CA had an overall positive effect of 3 838 Mexican Pesos ha-1 (320 $US ha-1) on net return and 1.3 t ha-1 on yield. After only one to two years of adoption by farmers on their fields, CA had higher yields and net returns under dry conditions that were even drier than those predicted by the analyzed 21 climate change models under a climate change scenario, emission scenario A2. 展开更多
关键词 climate change conservation agriculture conventional practice emission scenario modified stability analysis
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META-R:A software to analyze data from multi-environment plant breeding trials 被引量:6
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作者 Gregorio Alvarado Francisco M.Rodríguez +5 位作者 Angela Pacheco Juan Burgueño JoséCrossa Mateo Vargas Paulino Pérez-Rodríguez Marco A.Lopez-Cruz 《The Crop Journal》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第5期745-756,共12页
META-R(multi-environment trial analysis in R)is a suite of R scripts linked by a graphical user interface(GUI)designed in Java language.The objective of META-R is to accurately analyze multi-environment plant breeding... META-R(multi-environment trial analysis in R)is a suite of R scripts linked by a graphical user interface(GUI)designed in Java language.The objective of META-R is to accurately analyze multi-environment plant breeding trials(METs)by fitting mixed and fixed linear models from experimental designs such as the randomized complete block design(RCBD)and the alpha-lattice/lattice designs.META-R simultaneously estimates the best linear and unbiased estimators(BLUEs)and the best linear and unbiased predictors(BLUPs).Additionally,it computes the variance-covariance parameters,as well as some statistical and genetic parameters such as the least significant difference(LSD)at 5%significance,the coefficient of variation in percentage(CV),the genetic variance,and the broad-sense heritability.These parameters are very important in the selection of top performing genotypes in plant breeding.META-R also computes the phenotypic and genetic correlations among environments and between traits,as well as their statistical significance.The genetic correlations between environments or traits can be visualized in a biplot graph or a tree diagram(dendrogram).Genetic correlations are very important for identifying environments with similar behavior or making indirect selection and identifying the most highly associated traits.META-R performs multi-environment analyses by using the residual maximum likelihood(REML)method;these analyses can be done by environment,across environments by grouping factors(stress conditions,nitrogen content,etc.)and across environments;the analyses across environments can be done with a pre-defined degree of heritability. 展开更多
关键词 environments BREEDING variance
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The role of behavioral changes and prompt treatment in the control of STIs 被引量:1
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作者 Fernando Saldaňa Ignacio Barradas 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 2019年第1期1-10,共10页
In this paper,we study general recovery functions and treatment in the dynamics of an SIS model for sexually transmitted infections with nonzero partnership length.It is shown how partnership dynamics influences the p... In this paper,we study general recovery functions and treatment in the dynamics of an SIS model for sexually transmitted infections with nonzero partnership length.It is shown how partnership dynamics influences the predicted prevalence at the steady state and the basic reproduction number.Sobol's indices are used to evaluate the contribution of model parameters to the overall variance of R 0.The recovery functions studied here take into account that society's capacity to provide treatment is limited when the number of infected individuals is large.Bifurcation analysis is used to establish a relationship between an alert level of prevalence and the minimum recovery time that guarantees the eradication of the disease.We also show that a backward bifurcation can occur when there are delays in the treatment of infected individuals. 展开更多
关键词 Recovery function Pair formation Sensibility analysis Behavioral interventions Sexually transmitted infections
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2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件的演变过程及与1979年来历次厄尔尼诺事件的比较 被引量:1
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作者 Yan XUE Arun KUMAR 《中国科学:地球科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第9期996-1013,共18页
2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件从2014年年底的一个弱暖事件发展而来.到2015年11月,NINO3.4区SST异常达到了3.0℃.利用海表温度、海表风场、长波辐射及次表层海温等数据,本文系统地描述了2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件的演变特征,并与1979年以来历次厄... 2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件从2014年年底的一个弱暖事件发展而来.到2015年11月,NINO3.4区SST异常达到了3.0℃.利用海表温度、海表风场、长波辐射及次表层海温等数据,本文系统地描述了2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件的演变特征,并与1979年以来历次厄尔尼诺事件进行了比较.2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件一个显著的特征在于有大量的西风爆发事件和下沉开尔文波动发生.在2015年4~11月间,共观测到4次下沉开尔文波动.这些下沉开尔文波动激发并加强了赤道中、东太平洋海表温度的增暖.此外,下沉开尔文波动伴随着的东向海表平流在春、夏季将暖池区暖水东移,而于2015年11月出现的一次上升开尔文波动开启了此次厄尔尼诺事件急速消亡的序幕.2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件的另一个显著特征是NINO4区的海表温度异常创造了历史新高(1.7℃),比1982/1983(1997/1998)厄尔尼诺事件时高出了1℃(0.8℃).尽管NINO3区的海表温度异常与1982/1983和1997/1998厄尔尼诺事件时相当,但NINO1+2的海表温度异常却低了1℃.与此相应的,是对流增强区域向西移动了20个经度,且在南美洲西海岸处的最大D20异常仅仅是1997年和1982年的1/3到1/2. 展开更多
关键词 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 次表层海温 开尔文波动 海洋再分析
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TWO NOVEL GRADIENT METHODS WITH OPTIMAL STEP SIZES
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作者 Harry Oviedo Oscar Dalmau Rafael Herrera 《Journal of Computational Mathematics》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第3期375-391,共17页
In this work we introduce two new Barzilai and Borwein-like steps sizes for the classical gradient method for strictly convex quadratic optimization problems.The proposed step sizes employ second-order information in ... In this work we introduce two new Barzilai and Borwein-like steps sizes for the classical gradient method for strictly convex quadratic optimization problems.The proposed step sizes employ second-order information in order to obtain faster gradient-type methods.Both step sizes are derived from two unconstrained optimization models that involve approximate information of the Hessian of the objective function.A convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is provided.Some numerical experiments are performed in order to compare the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed methods with similar methods in the literature.Experimentally,it is observed that our proposals accelerate the gradient method at nearly no extra computational cost,which makes our proposal a good alternative to solve large-scale problems. 展开更多
关键词 Gradient methods Convex quadratic optimization Hessian spectral properties Steplength selection
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Terrestrial ecosystems enhanced root zone water storage capacity in response to climate change over the past four decades
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作者 Qiaojuan Xi Hongkai Gao +4 位作者 Lan Wang-Erlandsson Jianzhi Dong Fabrizio Fenicia Hubert H.G.Savenije Markus Hrachowitz 《Science Bulletin》 2025年第18期3019-3028,共10页
Adaptation of ecosystems'root zones to climate change critically affects drought resilience and vegetation productivity.However,a global quantitative assessment of this mechanism is missing.In this study,we analyz... Adaptation of ecosystems'root zones to climate change critically affects drought resilience and vegetation productivity.However,a global quantitative assessment of this mechanism is missing.In this study,we analyzed high-quality observation-based data to find that the global average root zone water storage capacity(S_(R))increased by 11%,from 182 to 202 mm in 1982-2020.The total increase of Sr equals to 1652 billion m^(3) over the past four decades.S_(R) increased in 9 out of 12 land cover types,while three relatively dry types experienced decreasing trends,potentially suggesting the crossing of ecosystems'tipping points.Our results underscore the importance of accounting for root zone dynamics under climate changetoassessdroughtimpacts. 展开更多
关键词 Root zone water storage capacity Mass curve technique Climate change Resilience Trend analysis
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