In this paper, the model output machine learning (MOML) method is proposed for simulating weather consultation, which can improve the forecast results of numerical weather prediction (NWP). During weather consultation...In this paper, the model output machine learning (MOML) method is proposed for simulating weather consultation, which can improve the forecast results of numerical weather prediction (NWP). During weather consultation, the forecasters obtain the final results by combining the observations with the NWP results and giving opinions based on their experience. It is obvious that using a suitable post-processing algorithm for simulating weather consultation is an interesting and important topic. MOML is a post-processing method based on machine learning, which matches NWP forecasts against observations through a regression function. By adopting different feature engineering of datasets and training periods, the observational and model data can be processed into the corresponding training set and test set. The MOML regression function uses an existing machine learning algorithm with the processed dataset to revise the output of NWP models combined with the observations, so as to improve the results of weather forecasts. To test the new approach for grid temperature forecasts, the 2-m surface air temperature in the Beijing area from the ECMWF model is used. MOML with different feature engineering is compared against the ECMWF model and modified model output statistics (MOS) method. MOML shows a better numerical performance than the ECMWF model and MOS, especially for winter. The results of MOML with a linear algorithm, running training period, and dataset using spatial interpolation ideas, are better than others when the forecast time is within a few days. The results of MOML with the Random Forest algorithm, year-round training period, and dataset containing surrounding gridpoint information, are better when the forecast time is longer.展开更多
By using electric power data,observational station temperature data in Beijing,CN05.1 temperature data,ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and ERSST.v3 b sea surface temperature(SST) data,it is found that summer(JulyAugu...By using electric power data,observational station temperature data in Beijing,CN05.1 temperature data,ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and ERSST.v3 b sea surface temperature(SST) data,it is found that summer(JulyAugust) electric power demand in Beijing is remarkably positively correlated with the previous spring(MarchApril) tropical North Atlantic(TNA) SST anomaly(SSTA).The possible physical mechanism of the TNA SSTA affecting summer electric power in Beijing is also revealed.When a positive SSTA occurs in the TNA during spring,anomalous easterlies prevail over the tropical central Pacific,which can persist to the following summer.Trade winds are thus enhanced over the northern Pacific,which favors a strengthening of upwelling cold water in the tropical central-eastern Pacific.As a result,a negative SSTA appears in the central-eastern Pacific in summer,which means a La Nina event is triggered by the previous TNA SSTA through the Bjerknes feedback.During the La Nina event,an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occupies the northwestern Pacific.The southerly anomalies at the western edge of this anomalous anticyclone strengthen the transportation of warm and humid airflow from the low latitudes to North China,where Beijing is located,causing higher summer temperatures and increased electricity usage for air conditioning,and vice versa.The results of this study might provide a new scientific basis and dues for the seasonal prediction of summer electric power demand in Beijing.展开更多
In the recent years,with rapid development of mobile internet,new media platform has been developing at full speed,such as twitter,WeC hat and APP. It has wide information dissemination channels,fast release frequency...In the recent years,with rapid development of mobile internet,new media platform has been developing at full speed,such as twitter,WeC hat and APP. It has wide information dissemination channels,fast release frequency and efficient interactive mode. According to the characteristics of new media,we set forth the current situation of public weather service. Through the questionnaire survey,we have analyzed the actual demand of public from three aspects,including the public reading habits,characteristics of sharing and transmission and defect of information distribution. Finally,we have discussed the future trend of meteorological new media,which will promote public service effectiveness of meteorological new media by considering requirement,applying new technology and reasonably using platform.展开更多
Taking Meteorological Knowledge official micro-blog ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂ and Beijing Meteorological Bureau official micro-blog ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ as the research objects,the differences of different typ...Taking Meteorological Knowledge official micro-blog ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂ and Beijing Meteorological Bureau official micro-blog ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ as the research objects,the differences of different types of meteorological government micro-blog and the contribution of each factor were analyzed by comparing changes of the number of fans,micro-blog comments and forwarding and other key elements during March1 to May 31 in 2012. The results showed that the number of fans was one of important indexes to determine the influence of meteorological government micro-blog,and the high active fans played a more prominent role. During the period of study,the fans number of ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ was far more than ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂,the daily micro-blog released number and comment forwarding number were both more than ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂,but the proportion of active fans of ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂ was larger than ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂. Timeliness was of greater contribution to advancing the meteorological government micro-blog influence. During the period of study,the proportions of comments and forwarding number of morning weather forecast were the largest,the evening weather forecast took the second place,and the noon was the smallest.But the influence of noon weather forecast micro-blog increased most highly approximately by 15% because of the higher timeliness. The content and form also made great contribution to the influence of meteorological government micro-blog. Comparison of different types of meteorological micro-blog showed that,the number of fans and the influence of meteorological government micro-blog which mainly published real-time meteorological information were larger than which mainly published meteorological popular science knowledge.展开更多
The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China occurred at the south and southeast margins of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Both earthquakes had similar magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.9...The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China occurred at the south and southeast margins of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Both earthquakes had similar magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.9, caused catastrophic loss of life and damage to property, and generated tens of thousands of landslides. Comparisons of pre-and post-quake satellite images supported by field investigations show that the Gorkha Earthquake triggered at least 2 064 large landslides （defined as covering an area ≥10 000 m2） over a -35 600 km2 region with a volume of （444-584）×10^6 （average 509×10^6） m3 and total area of 44.78×10^6 m2. In contrast, the Wenchuan Earthquake triggered 25 580 large landslides over a region of -44 000 km2 with a volume of （7 128-9 479）×10^6 （average 8 219×10^6） m3 and a total area of about 670.65×10^6 m2. Several controlling factors including topographic relief, slope steepness, and regional peak ground acceleration （PGA） were investigated to try to explain the great differences between the number, volume and area of the coseismic landslides associated with the two similar earthquakes. We found that the differences primarily arose from an unexpected factor, the dip angle of the seismogenic fault. This discovery should aid understanding the failure mechanisms of quake-triggered landslides, and suggests that more factors should be taken into consideration in estimating coseismic landslide volumes from earthquake magnitudes. KEY WORDS： Gorkha Earthquake, Wenchuan Earthquake, landslide, dip angle, seismogenic fault.展开更多
The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations＇ data in the study are...The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations＇ data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36℃ per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season （May to September）. During 1961 -2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s.展开更多
Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variatio...Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.展开更多
Using Google Earth software as a platform,this study has established an integrated database of both old and new landslides in Baoshan City,Yunnan Province,China,and analyzed their development characteristics together ...Using Google Earth software as a platform,this study has established an integrated database of both old and new landslides in Baoshan City,Yunnan Province,China,and analyzed their development characteristics together with distribution rules,respectively.Based on the results,a total of 2427 landslides occurred in the study area,including 2144 new landslides and 283 old landslides,with a total area of about104.8 km^2.The new landslides are mostly in small-scales with an area less than 10000 m^2,while the area of individual old landslide is mostly larger than 10000 m^2.By analyzing the relationship between the two types of landslides and eight impact factors(i.e.,elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope position,lithology,fault,regional Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA),and average annual rainfall),the different individual influencing factors,distribution regularities and mechanisms of the two types of landslides are revealed.In detail,the main influencing factors of new landslides are elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope position,lithology,regional PGA and average annual rainfall,while the influencing factors of old landslides are mainly elevation,slope angle,and lithology.This study provides basic data and support for landslide assessment and further disaster reduction in Baoshan City.Besides,it also provides new constraints in deeply understanding the effect of different topographic and geological conditions,historical earthquakes,rainfall and other factors on the occurrence mechanisms of both new landslides and old landslides.展开更多
We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields,i.e.,to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location,based on meteorological background fields and geographical info...We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields,i.e.,to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location,based on meteorological background fields and geographical information.The random forest method is selected to develop the machine learning data reconstruction model(MLDRM-RF)for wind speeds over Beijing from 2015-19.We use temporal,geospatial attribute and meteorological background field features as inputs.The wind speed field can be reconstructed at any station in the region not used in the training process to cross-validate model performance.The evaluation considers the spatial distribution of and seasonal variations in the root mean squared error(RMSE)of the reconstructed wind speed field across Beijing.The average RMSE is 1.09 m s^(−1),considerably smaller than the result(1.29 m s^(−1))obtained with inverse distance weighting(IDW)interpolation.Finally,we extract the important feature permutations by the method of mean decrease in impurity(MDI)and discuss the reasonableness of the model prediction results.MLDRM-RF is a reasonable approach with excellent potential for the improved reconstruction of historical surface wind speed fields with arbitrary grid resolutions.Such a model is needed in many wind applications,such as wind energy and aviation safety assessments.展开更多
A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing ...A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 features either El Ni?o Modoki(EM) or ENSO evolution during different periods, which is probably associated with the impacts of global warming. The underlying question is what the EOF2 mode of the tropical Pacific would be without global warming. Using the CMIP5 preindustrial scenario to exclude the influence of global warming, we find that the EOF1 mode of the tropical Pacific SSTA represents ENSO and that the EOF2 mode is not EM. According to the lead–lag correlation between the ENSO and EOF2 modes, the linkage between these two modes is as follows: …El Ni?o → EOF2 → La Ni?a →–EOF2 → El Ni?o…. By analyzing the evolution of sea surface temperature, surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, we find the mechanism linking the ENSO and EOF2 modes is the air–sea interaction associated with the ENSO cycle. This result suggests that the EOF2 mode represents an aspect of ENSO evolution under preindustrial conditions. Therefore, this study further indicates that the EM is probably due to the influence of global warming.展开更多
Recent vigorous industrialization and urbanization in Shandong Peninsula,China,have resulted in the emission of heavy anthropogenic aerosols over the region.The annual means of aerosol optical depth(AOD),Angstrom expo...Recent vigorous industrialization and urbanization in Shandong Peninsula,China,have resulted in the emission of heavy anthropogenic aerosols over the region.The annual means of aerosol optical depth(AOD),Angstrom exponent(α),single-scattering albedo(SSA),aerosol direct radiative forcing(ARF),surface radiative forcing(SRF),and top-of-the atmospheric radiative forcing(TOA) recorded during 2004–2011 were respectively 0.67±0.19,1.25±0.24,0.93±0.03,47±9 W m-2,-61±9 W m-2,and-14±8 W m-2.The aerosol optical properties and ARF characteristics showed remarkable seasonal variations due to cycle changes in the aerosol components and dominance type.The atmosphere-surface system was cooled by ARF in all years of the study due to anthropogenic sulfate and nitrate emission and sea salt aerosols.The magnitude of TOA cooling was larger in summer(-15±17 W m-2) and autumn(-12±7 W m-2) than that in spring(-8±4 W m-2) and winter(-9±10 W m-2).展开更多
It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the areas around Beijing to increase the accuracy of fire danger monitoring,forecasting,and management.Using meteorological data from 17 national mete...It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the areas around Beijing to increase the accuracy of fire danger monitoring,forecasting,and management.Using meteorological data from 17 national meteorological stations in the areas around Beijing from 1981−2021,this study calculated the fire weather index(FWI)and analyzed its spatiotemporal characteristics.It was found that the high and low fire danger periods were in April−May and July−August,with spatial patterns of“decrease in the northwest−increase in the southeast”and a significant increase throughout the areas around Beijing,respectively.Next,the contributions of different meteorological factors were quantified by the multiple regression method.We found that during the high fire danger period,the northern and southern parts were affected by precipitation and minimum relative humidity,respectively.However,most areas were influenced by wind speed during the low fire danger period.Finally,comparing with the FWI characteristics under different SSP scenarios,we found that the FWI decreased during high fire danger period and increased during low fire danger period under different SSP scenarios(i.e.,SSP245,SSP585)for periods of 2021−2050,2071−2100,2021−2100,except for SSP245 in 2071−2100 with an increasing trend both in high and low fire danger periods.This study implies that there is a higher probability of FWI in the low fire danger period,threatening the ecological environment and human health.Therefore,it is necessary to enhance research on fire danger during the low fire danger period to improve the ability to predict summer fire danger.展开更多
In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC a...In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC aims to take advantage of the AI techniques to improve the quality of weather forecast. Across the world, more than1000 teams enrolled in the WFC and about 250 teams completed real-time weather forecasts, among which top 5 teams were awarded in the final contest. The contest results show that the AI-based ensemble models exhibited improved skill for forecasts of surface air temperature and relative humidity at 2-m and wind speed at 10-m height.Compared to the IUM operational analog ensemble weather model forecast, the most notable improvements of 24.2%and 17.0% in forecast accuracy for surface 2-m air temperature are achieved by two teams using the AI techniques of time series model, gradient boosting tree, depth probability prediction, and so on. Meanwhile, it is found that reasonable data processing techniques and model composite structure are also important for obtaining better forecasts.展开更多
Integrating urban spatial landscape(USL) parameters into refined climate environment assessment is important. By taking the central urban area(CUA) of Xi’an, China as an example, this study develops an evaluation met...Integrating urban spatial landscape(USL) parameters into refined climate environment assessment is important. By taking the central urban area(CUA) of Xi’an, China as an example, this study develops an evaluation method based on Urban Climatic Map(UCMap) technology. We define surface urban heat island intensity(SUHI) and surface ventilation potential coefficient(VPC), which can effectively reflect local urban climate. Based on SUHI and VPC,we analyze the influences of seven typical USL metrics including building height(BH), building density(BD), floor area ratio(FAR), sky view factor(SVF), frontal area index(FAI), surface roughness length(RL), and vegetation cover(VC). Then, we construct a comprehensive evaluation model and create an urban climate zoning map on a 100-m resolution. The climate optimization on the map is performed for configuration of possible ventilation corridors and identification of associated control indicators. The results show that the main factors affecting SUHI in the CUA of Xi’an are VC and BD, which explain 87.9% of the variation in SUHI, while VPC explains 50% of the variation in SUHI. The main factors affecting VPC are BH, FAR, FAI, and RL, all of which contribute to more than 95% of the variation in VPC. The evaluation model constructed by SUHI, VPC, and VC can divide the CUA into climate resource spaces, climate preservation spaces, climate sensitive spaces, and climate restoration spaces. On this basis, a ventilation corridor network of 3 level-1 corridors(each over 500 m wide), 6 level-2 corridors(each over 500 m wide) and 13 level-3 corridors(each over 50 m wide) is established. Meanwhile, the main quantitative control indicators selected from the USL metrics are proved to be capable of ensuring smooth implementation of the planned corridors at different levels.展开更多
This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES...This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES_Meso）. A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme（WSM6）, and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei（CCN）number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration（Nc） but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration（Nr）, inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.展开更多
The summer of 2019 witnessed a great number of wildfires around the globe.For example,wildfires scorched huge swaths of Alaska,British Columbia in Canada,and parts of Greenland.And forest fires in Siberia and the Far ...The summer of 2019 witnessed a great number of wildfires around the globe.For example,wildfires scorched huge swaths of Alaska,British Columbia in Canada,and parts of Greenland.And forest fires in Siberia and the Far East of Russia were also very serious,affecting nearly 3 million hectares of land,and putting some parts of Russia into a state of emergency.In particular,forest fires in the Amazon region had attracted global attention.According to Science,as of August 24,BraziPs National Institute for Space Research had counted more than 41000 fires this year,86%more than last year,compared with 22000 in the same period last year.Scientists in Brazil and elsewhere believe that the recent increase of wildfires is closely related to the increasing ac・tivities of deforestation(Arruda et al.,2019;Escobar,2019).展开更多
We applied a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function(S-EOF) analysis based on the results of the Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, to seasonal mean air-sea CO_2 flux over the western North ...We applied a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function(S-EOF) analysis based on the results of the Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, to seasonal mean air-sea CO_2 flux over the western North Pacific(WNP)(0°–35°N, 110°E–150°E). The first leading mode accounts for 29% of the total interannual variance, corresponding to the evolution of the El Ni-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) from its developing to decaying phases. During the ENSO developing phase in the summer and fall, the contribution of surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure anomalies is greater than that of gas transfer/solubility anomalies, which contribute to increasing oceanic CO_2 uptake over the WNP. During the ENSO mature phase in the winter, the anomalous southwesterly northwest of the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) reduces the surface wind speed in the China marginal sea and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by reducing the gas transfer coefficient. In the subsequent spring, the WNPAC maintains with an eastward shift in position. The anomalous southwesterly warms sea surface temperatures in the China marginal sea by reducing evaporation and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by enhancing surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure. This process, rather than the effect of decreasing gas transfer coefficient, dominates CO_2 flux anomalies in the spring.展开更多
Sunshine duration(SD) is adopted widely to study global dimming/brightening. However, long-term simultaneous measurements of SD and closely related impact factors require further analysis to elucidate how and why SD h...Sunshine duration(SD) is adopted widely to study global dimming/brightening. However, long-term simultaneous measurements of SD and closely related impact factors require further analysis to elucidate how and why SD has varied during the past decades. In this study, a long-term(1958–2021) SD data series obtained from the Shangdianzi Global Atmosphere Watch(GAW) station in China was analyzed to detect linear trends, climatic jumps, and climatic periods in SD using linear fitting, the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Annual SD exhibited steady dimming(-67.3 h decade-1) before 2010, followed by a period of brightening(189.9 h decade-1)during 2011–2020. An abrupt jump in annual SD occurred in 1995, and the annual SD anomaly exhibited significant oscillation with ~3-yr periodicity during 1960–1978. Partial least squares analysis revealed that annual SD anomaly was associated with variations in relative humidity, gale days, cloud cover, and black carbon(BC). Further analysis of the clear-sky daily sunshine percentage(DSP) and simultaneous measurements of aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo(SSA), BC, and total suspended particulates, suggested that variation in DSP was affected primarily by aerosol scattering and absorption. Furthermore, the hourly clear-sky SD at high aerosol loading was approximately 60% and 56% of that at middle and low aerosol loadings, respectively. The pattern of diurnal variation in clear-sky hourly SD, as well as the actual values, can be affected by the fine particulate concentration, aerosol extinction coefficient, and SSA.展开更多
The discontinuities in historical Chinese radiosonde datasets are attributed to artificial errors. In order to reflect more realistically basic conditions of the atmosphere over China and provide more reasonable radio...The discontinuities in historical Chinese radiosonde datasets are attributed to artificial errors. In order to reflect more realistically basic conditions of the atmosphere over China and provide more reasonable radiosonde data as input to climate change analysis and to atmospheric reanalysis data assimilation systems, this paper proposes a scheme to identify breakpoints and adjust biases in daily radiosonde observations. The ongoing ECMWF Re Analysis-Interim(ERA-Interim) 12-h forecasts are used as reference series in the scheme, complemented by the ECMWF Twentieth Century Reanalysis(ERA-20 C). A series of breakpoint identification schemes are developed and combined with metadata to detect breakpoints. The Quantile-Matching(QM) method is applied to test and adjust daily radiosonde data on 12 mandatory pressure levels collected at 80 sounding stations during 1979–2013. The adjusted temperatures on mandatory levels are interpolated to significant levels for temperature adjustment on these levels. The adjustment scheme not only solves the data discontinuity problem caused by changes in observational instruments and bias correction methods, but also solves the discontinuity problem in the 1200 minus 0000 UTC temperature time series on mandatory levels at individual sounding stations. Before the adjustment, obvious discontinuities can be found in the deviation field between the raw radiosonde data and ERA-Interim reanalysis with relatively large deviations before 2001. The deviation discontinuity is mainly attributed to the nationwide upgrade of the radiosonde system in China around 2001. After the adjustment, the time series of deviations becomes more continuous. In addition, compared with the adjusted temperature data on mandatory levels over 80 radiosonde stations in China contained in the Radiosonde Observation Correction Using Reanalyses(RAOBCORE) 1.5, the dataset adjusted by the method proposed in the present study exhibits higher quality than RAOBCORE 1.5, while discontinuities still exist in the time series of temperature at 0000, 1200, and 1200 minus 0000 UTC in RAOBCORE 1.5.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2018YFF0300104 and 2017YFC0209804)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11421101)Beijing Academy of Artifical Intelligence (BAAI)
文摘In this paper, the model output machine learning (MOML) method is proposed for simulating weather consultation, which can improve the forecast results of numerical weather prediction (NWP). During weather consultation, the forecasters obtain the final results by combining the observations with the NWP results and giving opinions based on their experience. It is obvious that using a suitable post-processing algorithm for simulating weather consultation is an interesting and important topic. MOML is a post-processing method based on machine learning, which matches NWP forecasts against observations through a regression function. By adopting different feature engineering of datasets and training periods, the observational and model data can be processed into the corresponding training set and test set. The MOML regression function uses an existing machine learning algorithm with the processed dataset to revise the output of NWP models combined with the observations, so as to improve the results of weather forecasts. To test the new approach for grid temperature forecasts, the 2-m surface air temperature in the Beijing area from the ECMWF model is used. MOML with different feature engineering is compared against the ECMWF model and modified model output statistics (MOS) method. MOML shows a better numerical performance than the ECMWF model and MOS, especially for winter. The results of MOML with a linear algorithm, running training period, and dataset using spatial interpolation ideas, are better than others when the forecast time is within a few days. The results of MOML with the Random Forest algorithm, year-round training period, and dataset containing surrounding gridpoint information, are better when the forecast time is longer.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42088101]the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2018YFC1505604]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42005016 and 41905061]。
文摘By using electric power data,observational station temperature data in Beijing,CN05.1 temperature data,ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and ERSST.v3 b sea surface temperature(SST) data,it is found that summer(JulyAugust) electric power demand in Beijing is remarkably positively correlated with the previous spring(MarchApril) tropical North Atlantic(TNA) SST anomaly(SSTA).The possible physical mechanism of the TNA SSTA affecting summer electric power in Beijing is also revealed.When a positive SSTA occurs in the TNA during spring,anomalous easterlies prevail over the tropical central Pacific,which can persist to the following summer.Trade winds are thus enhanced over the northern Pacific,which favors a strengthening of upwelling cold water in the tropical central-eastern Pacific.As a result,a negative SSTA appears in the central-eastern Pacific in summer,which means a La Nina event is triggered by the previous TNA SSTA through the Bjerknes feedback.During the La Nina event,an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occupies the northwestern Pacific.The southerly anomalies at the western edge of this anomalous anticyclone strengthen the transportation of warm and humid airflow from the low latitudes to North China,where Beijing is located,causing higher summer temperatures and increased electricity usage for air conditioning,and vice versa.The results of this study might provide a new scientific basis and dues for the seasonal prediction of summer electric power demand in Beijing.
基金Supported by Soft Science Project of Beijing Meteorological Bureau[2017Y05]
文摘In the recent years,with rapid development of mobile internet,new media platform has been developing at full speed,such as twitter,WeC hat and APP. It has wide information dissemination channels,fast release frequency and efficient interactive mode. According to the characteristics of new media,we set forth the current situation of public weather service. Through the questionnaire survey,we have analyzed the actual demand of public from three aspects,including the public reading habits,characteristics of sharing and transmission and defect of information distribution. Finally,we have discussed the future trend of meteorological new media,which will promote public service effectiveness of meteorological new media by considering requirement,applying new technology and reasonably using platform.
基金Supported by the Public Industry(Meteorology) Special Funds for Scientific Research Projects(GYHY201106037)
文摘Taking Meteorological Knowledge official micro-blog ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂ and Beijing Meteorological Bureau official micro-blog ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ as the research objects,the differences of different types of meteorological government micro-blog and the contribution of each factor were analyzed by comparing changes of the number of fans,micro-blog comments and forwarding and other key elements during March1 to May 31 in 2012. The results showed that the number of fans was one of important indexes to determine the influence of meteorological government micro-blog,and the high active fans played a more prominent role. During the period of study,the fans number of ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ was far more than ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂,the daily micro-blog released number and comment forwarding number were both more than ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂,but the proportion of active fans of ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂ was larger than ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂. Timeliness was of greater contribution to advancing the meteorological government micro-blog influence. During the period of study,the proportions of comments and forwarding number of morning weather forecast were the largest,the evening weather forecast took the second place,and the noon was the smallest.But the influence of noon weather forecast micro-blog increased most highly approximately by 15% because of the higher timeliness. The content and form also made great contribution to the influence of meteorological government micro-blog. Comparison of different types of meteorological micro-blog showed that,the number of fans and the influence of meteorological government micro-blog which mainly published real-time meteorological information were larger than which mainly published meteorological popular science knowledge.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.41472202)
文摘The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China occurred at the south and southeast margins of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Both earthquakes had similar magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.9, caused catastrophic loss of life and damage to property, and generated tens of thousands of landslides. Comparisons of pre-and post-quake satellite images supported by field investigations show that the Gorkha Earthquake triggered at least 2 064 large landslides （defined as covering an area ≥10 000 m2） over a -35 600 km2 region with a volume of （444-584）×10^6 （average 509×10^6） m3 and total area of 44.78×10^6 m2. In contrast, the Wenchuan Earthquake triggered 25 580 large landslides over a region of -44 000 km2 with a volume of （7 128-9 479）×10^6 （average 8 219×10^6） m3 and a total area of about 670.65×10^6 m2. Several controlling factors including topographic relief, slope steepness, and regional peak ground acceleration （PGA） were investigated to try to explain the great differences between the number, volume and area of the coseismic landslides associated with the two similar earthquakes. We found that the differences primarily arose from an unexpected factor, the dip angle of the seismogenic fault. This discovery should aid understanding the failure mechanisms of quake-triggered landslides, and suggests that more factors should be taken into consideration in estimating coseismic landslide volumes from earthquake magnitudes. KEY WORDS： Gorkha Earthquake, Wenchuan Earthquake, landslide, dip angle, seismogenic fault.
基金supported by the Climate Change Special Foundation of China Meteorological Administration(No. CCSF2010-1)
文摘The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations＇ data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36℃ per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season （May to September）. During 1961 -2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2018YFA0606403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41790473)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8234068)。
文摘Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.
基金sponsored by the ScientificResearch Fund of Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(2017QJGJ05-03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41941016)。
文摘Using Google Earth software as a platform,this study has established an integrated database of both old and new landslides in Baoshan City,Yunnan Province,China,and analyzed their development characteristics together with distribution rules,respectively.Based on the results,a total of 2427 landslides occurred in the study area,including 2144 new landslides and 283 old landslides,with a total area of about104.8 km^2.The new landslides are mostly in small-scales with an area less than 10000 m^2,while the area of individual old landslide is mostly larger than 10000 m^2.By analyzing the relationship between the two types of landslides and eight impact factors(i.e.,elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope position,lithology,fault,regional Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA),and average annual rainfall),the different individual influencing factors,distribution regularities and mechanisms of the two types of landslides are revealed.In detail,the main influencing factors of new landslides are elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope position,lithology,regional PGA and average annual rainfall,while the influencing factors of old landslides are mainly elevation,slope angle,and lithology.This study provides basic data and support for landslide assessment and further disaster reduction in Baoshan City.Besides,it also provides new constraints in deeply understanding the effect of different topographic and geological conditions,historical earthquakes,rainfall and other factors on the occurrence mechanisms of both new landslides and old landslides.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19030402)the Key Special Projects for International Cooperation in Science and Technology Innovation between Governments(Grant No.2017YFE0133600the Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation Youth Project 8214066:Application Research of Beijing Road Visibility Prediction Based on Machine Learning Methods.
文摘We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields,i.e.,to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location,based on meteorological background fields and geographical information.The random forest method is selected to develop the machine learning data reconstruction model(MLDRM-RF)for wind speeds over Beijing from 2015-19.We use temporal,geospatial attribute and meteorological background field features as inputs.The wind speed field can be reconstructed at any station in the region not used in the training process to cross-validate model performance.The evaluation considers the spatial distribution of and seasonal variations in the root mean squared error(RMSE)of the reconstructed wind speed field across Beijing.The average RMSE is 1.09 m s^(−1),considerably smaller than the result(1.29 m s^(−1))obtained with inverse distance weighting(IDW)interpolation.Finally,we extract the important feature permutations by the method of mean decrease in impurity(MDI)and discuss the reasonableness of the model prediction results.MLDRM-RF is a reasonable approach with excellent potential for the improved reconstruction of historical surface wind speed fields with arbitrary grid resolutions.Such a model is needed in many wind applications,such as wind energy and aviation safety assessments.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters(2018YFC1506006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(41805054,41875108,41805041,41705065)the Scientific Research Fund of the Chengdu University of Information Technology(KYTZ201724,KYTZ201602,KYTZ201727)
文摘A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 features either El Ni?o Modoki(EM) or ENSO evolution during different periods, which is probably associated with the impacts of global warming. The underlying question is what the EOF2 mode of the tropical Pacific would be without global warming. Using the CMIP5 preindustrial scenario to exclude the influence of global warming, we find that the EOF1 mode of the tropical Pacific SSTA represents ENSO and that the EOF2 mode is not EM. According to the lead–lag correlation between the ENSO and EOF2 modes, the linkage between these two modes is as follows: …El Ni?o → EOF2 → La Ni?a →–EOF2 → El Ni?o…. By analyzing the evolution of sea surface temperature, surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, we find the mechanism linking the ENSO and EOF2 modes is the air–sea interaction associated with the ENSO cycle. This result suggests that the EOF2 mode represents an aspect of ENSO evolution under preindustrial conditions. Therefore, this study further indicates that the EM is probably due to the influence of global warming.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41222033,41375036,and 41105103)and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05100102 and XDB05020103)
文摘Recent vigorous industrialization and urbanization in Shandong Peninsula,China,have resulted in the emission of heavy anthropogenic aerosols over the region.The annual means of aerosol optical depth(AOD),Angstrom exponent(α),single-scattering albedo(SSA),aerosol direct radiative forcing(ARF),surface radiative forcing(SRF),and top-of-the atmospheric radiative forcing(TOA) recorded during 2004–2011 were respectively 0.67±0.19,1.25±0.24,0.93±0.03,47±9 W m-2,-61±9 W m-2,and-14±8 W m-2.The aerosol optical properties and ARF characteristics showed remarkable seasonal variations due to cycle changes in the aerosol components and dominance type.The atmosphere-surface system was cooled by ARF in all years of the study due to anthropogenic sulfate and nitrate emission and sea salt aerosols.The magnitude of TOA cooling was larger in summer(-15±17 W m-2) and autumn(-12±7 W m-2) than that in spring(-8±4 W m-2) and winter(-9±10 W m-2).
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42305055,42171030 and 41901017)the Science and Technology Project of Beijing Meteorological Service(No.BMBKJ202302001)+1 种基金the Key Project of Beijing Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology(No.Y2023046)Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the areas around Beijing to increase the accuracy of fire danger monitoring,forecasting,and management.Using meteorological data from 17 national meteorological stations in the areas around Beijing from 1981−2021,this study calculated the fire weather index(FWI)and analyzed its spatiotemporal characteristics.It was found that the high and low fire danger periods were in April−May and July−August,with spatial patterns of“decrease in the northwest−increase in the southeast”and a significant increase throughout the areas around Beijing,respectively.Next,the contributions of different meteorological factors were quantified by the multiple regression method.We found that during the high fire danger period,the northern and southern parts were affected by precipitation and minimum relative humidity,respectively.However,most areas were influenced by wind speed during the low fire danger period.Finally,comparing with the FWI characteristics under different SSP scenarios,we found that the FWI decreased during high fire danger period and increased during low fire danger period under different SSP scenarios(i.e.,SSP245,SSP585)for periods of 2021−2050,2071−2100,2021−2100,except for SSP245 in 2071−2100 with an increasing trend both in high and low fire danger periods.This study implies that there is a higher probability of FWI in the low fire danger period,threatening the ecological environment and human health.Therefore,it is necessary to enhance research on fire danger during the low fire danger period to improve the ability to predict summer fire danger.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506801)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505117)Special Funds for Basic Research and Operation in Government Level Research Institutes of Public Welfare Nature(IUMKY201904)
文摘In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC aims to take advantage of the AI techniques to improve the quality of weather forecast. Across the world, more than1000 teams enrolled in the WFC and about 250 teams completed real-time weather forecasts, among which top 5 teams were awarded in the final contest. The contest results show that the AI-based ensemble models exhibited improved skill for forecasts of surface air temperature and relative humidity at 2-m and wind speed at 10-m height.Compared to the IUM operational analog ensemble weather model forecast, the most notable improvements of 24.2%and 17.0% in forecast accuracy for surface 2-m air temperature are achieved by two teams using the AI techniques of time series model, gradient boosting tree, depth probability prediction, and so on. Meanwhile, it is found that reasonable data processing techniques and model composite structure are also important for obtaining better forecasts.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFB1502801)Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration (CXFZ2021J046)+1 种基金Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project (Z201100008220002)High-Level Technology and Innovative Talent Program of Beijing Meteorological Service (2021)。
文摘Integrating urban spatial landscape(USL) parameters into refined climate environment assessment is important. By taking the central urban area(CUA) of Xi’an, China as an example, this study develops an evaluation method based on Urban Climatic Map(UCMap) technology. We define surface urban heat island intensity(SUHI) and surface ventilation potential coefficient(VPC), which can effectively reflect local urban climate. Based on SUHI and VPC,we analyze the influences of seven typical USL metrics including building height(BH), building density(BD), floor area ratio(FAR), sky view factor(SVF), frontal area index(FAI), surface roughness length(RL), and vegetation cover(VC). Then, we construct a comprehensive evaluation model and create an urban climate zoning map on a 100-m resolution. The climate optimization on the map is performed for configuration of possible ventilation corridors and identification of associated control indicators. The results show that the main factors affecting SUHI in the CUA of Xi’an are VC and BD, which explain 87.9% of the variation in SUHI, while VPC explains 50% of the variation in SUHI. The main factors affecting VPC are BH, FAR, FAI, and RL, all of which contribute to more than 95% of the variation in VPC. The evaluation model constructed by SUHI, VPC, and VC can divide the CUA into climate resource spaces, climate preservation spaces, climate sensitive spaces, and climate restoration spaces. On this basis, a ventilation corridor network of 3 level-1 corridors(each over 500 m wide), 6 level-2 corridors(each over 500 m wide) and 13 level-3 corridors(each over 50 m wide) is established. Meanwhile, the main quantitative control indicators selected from the USL metrics are proved to be capable of ensuring smooth implementation of the planned corridors at different levels.
基金Supported by the National Key Project(2016YFC0203306)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41590874)+2 种基金National(Key)973 Program(2014CB441201)Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences’ Project(2017Z001)Key Project of Air Pollution Cause and Control(DQGG0104)
文摘This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES_Meso）. A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme（WSM6）, and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei（CCN）number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration（Nc） but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration（Nr）, inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.
文摘The summer of 2019 witnessed a great number of wildfires around the globe.For example,wildfires scorched huge swaths of Alaska,British Columbia in Canada,and parts of Greenland.And forest fires in Siberia and the Far East of Russia were also very serious,affecting nearly 3 million hectares of land,and putting some parts of Russia into a state of emergency.In particular,forest fires in the Amazon region had attracted global attention.According to Science,as of August 24,BraziPs National Institute for Space Research had counted more than 41000 fires this year,86%more than last year,compared with 22000 in the same period last year.Scientists in Brazil and elsewhere believe that the recent increase of wildfires is closely related to the increasing ac・tivities of deforestation(Arruda et al.,2019;Escobar,2019).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41330423,41420104006)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘We applied a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function(S-EOF) analysis based on the results of the Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, to seasonal mean air-sea CO_2 flux over the western North Pacific(WNP)(0°–35°N, 110°E–150°E). The first leading mode accounts for 29% of the total interannual variance, corresponding to the evolution of the El Ni-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) from its developing to decaying phases. During the ENSO developing phase in the summer and fall, the contribution of surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure anomalies is greater than that of gas transfer/solubility anomalies, which contribute to increasing oceanic CO_2 uptake over the WNP. During the ENSO mature phase in the winter, the anomalous southwesterly northwest of the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) reduces the surface wind speed in the China marginal sea and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by reducing the gas transfer coefficient. In the subsequent spring, the WNPAC maintains with an eastward shift in position. The anomalous southwesterly warms sea surface temperatures in the China marginal sea by reducing evaporation and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by enhancing surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure. This process, rather than the effect of decreasing gas transfer coefficient, dominates CO_2 flux anomalies in the spring.
基金Supported by the China Scholarship Council (202205330024)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFB0504002)+1 种基金National Science and Technology Infrastructure Platform Project (2017)Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Institute of Urban Meteorology (IUMKY201735)。
文摘Sunshine duration(SD) is adopted widely to study global dimming/brightening. However, long-term simultaneous measurements of SD and closely related impact factors require further analysis to elucidate how and why SD has varied during the past decades. In this study, a long-term(1958–2021) SD data series obtained from the Shangdianzi Global Atmosphere Watch(GAW) station in China was analyzed to detect linear trends, climatic jumps, and climatic periods in SD using linear fitting, the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Annual SD exhibited steady dimming(-67.3 h decade-1) before 2010, followed by a period of brightening(189.9 h decade-1)during 2011–2020. An abrupt jump in annual SD occurred in 1995, and the annual SD anomaly exhibited significant oscillation with ~3-yr periodicity during 1960–1978. Partial least squares analysis revealed that annual SD anomaly was associated with variations in relative humidity, gale days, cloud cover, and black carbon(BC). Further analysis of the clear-sky daily sunshine percentage(DSP) and simultaneous measurements of aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo(SSA), BC, and total suspended particulates, suggested that variation in DSP was affected primarily by aerosol scattering and absorption. Furthermore, the hourly clear-sky SD at high aerosol loading was approximately 60% and 56% of that at middle and low aerosol loadings, respectively. The pattern of diurnal variation in clear-sky hourly SD, as well as the actual values, can be affected by the fine particulate concentration, aerosol extinction coefficient, and SSA.
基金Supported by the National Innovation Project for Meteorological Science and Technology (CMAGGTD003-5)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201506002)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1501801)。
文摘The discontinuities in historical Chinese radiosonde datasets are attributed to artificial errors. In order to reflect more realistically basic conditions of the atmosphere over China and provide more reasonable radiosonde data as input to climate change analysis and to atmospheric reanalysis data assimilation systems, this paper proposes a scheme to identify breakpoints and adjust biases in daily radiosonde observations. The ongoing ECMWF Re Analysis-Interim(ERA-Interim) 12-h forecasts are used as reference series in the scheme, complemented by the ECMWF Twentieth Century Reanalysis(ERA-20 C). A series of breakpoint identification schemes are developed and combined with metadata to detect breakpoints. The Quantile-Matching(QM) method is applied to test and adjust daily radiosonde data on 12 mandatory pressure levels collected at 80 sounding stations during 1979–2013. The adjusted temperatures on mandatory levels are interpolated to significant levels for temperature adjustment on these levels. The adjustment scheme not only solves the data discontinuity problem caused by changes in observational instruments and bias correction methods, but also solves the discontinuity problem in the 1200 minus 0000 UTC temperature time series on mandatory levels at individual sounding stations. Before the adjustment, obvious discontinuities can be found in the deviation field between the raw radiosonde data and ERA-Interim reanalysis with relatively large deviations before 2001. The deviation discontinuity is mainly attributed to the nationwide upgrade of the radiosonde system in China around 2001. After the adjustment, the time series of deviations becomes more continuous. In addition, compared with the adjusted temperature data on mandatory levels over 80 radiosonde stations in China contained in the Radiosonde Observation Correction Using Reanalyses(RAOBCORE) 1.5, the dataset adjusted by the method proposed in the present study exhibits higher quality than RAOBCORE 1.5, while discontinuities still exist in the time series of temperature at 0000, 1200, and 1200 minus 0000 UTC in RAOBCORE 1.5.
