This paper examines the dominant submonthly variability of zonally symmetrical atmospheric circula- tion in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） winter within the context of the Northern Annular Mode （NAM）, with particula...This paper examines the dominant submonthly variability of zonally symmetrical atmospheric circula- tion in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） winter within the context of the Northern Annular Mode （NAM）, with particular emphasis on interactive stratosphere-troposphere processes. The submonthly variability is identified and measured using a daily NAM index, which concentrates primarily on zonally symmetrical circulation. A schematic lifecycle of submonthly variability is developed that reveals a two-way coupling pro- cess between the stratosphere and troposphere in the NH polar region. Specifically, anomalous tropospheric zonal winds in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic propagate upwards to the low stratosphere, disturbing the polar vortex, and resulting in an anomalous stratospheric geopotential height （HGT） that subsequently propagates down into the troposphere and changes the sign of the surface circulations. From the standpoint of planetary-scale wave activities, a feedback loop is also evident when the anoma- lous planetary-scale waves （with wavenumbers 2 and 3） propagate upwards, which disturbs the anomalous zonally symmetrical flow in the low stratosphere, and induces the anomalous HGT to move poleward in the low stratosphere, and then propagates down into the troposphere. This increases the energy of waves at wavenumbers 2 and 3 in the low troposphere in middle latitudes by enhancing the land-sea contrast of the anomalous HGT field. Thus, this study supports the viewpoint that the downward propagation of stratospheric NAM signals may not originate in the stratosphere.展开更多
An analysis of a large number of cases of 500 hPa height monthly prediction shows that systematic errors exist in the zonal mean components which account for a large portion of the total forecast errors, and such erro...An analysis of a large number of cases of 500 hPa height monthly prediction shows that systematic errors exist in the zonal mean components which account for a large portion of the total forecast errors, and such errors are commonly seen in other prediction models. To overcome the difficulties of the numerical model, the authors attempt a 'hybrid' approach to improving the dynamical extended-range (monthly) prediction. The monthly pentad-mean nonlinear dynamical regional prediction model of the zonal-mean geopotential height (wave number 0) based on a large amount of data is constituted by employing the reconstruction of phase-space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method. The dynamical prediction of the numerical model is then combined with that of the nonlinear model, i.e., the pentadmean zonal-mean height produced by the nonlinear model is transformed to its counterpart in the numerical model by nudging during the time integration. The forecast experiment results show that the above hybrid approach not only reduces the systematic error in zonal mean height by the numerical model, but also makes an improvement in the non-axisymmetric components due to the wave-flow interaction.展开更多
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been employed to diagnose variations of the zonal mean flow in boreal summer. Two leading EOF modes are found to dominate the spatial and temporal changes of the summertime zonal mea...The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been employed to diagnose variations of the zonal mean flow in boreal summer. Two leading EOF modes are found to dominate the spatial and temporal changes of the summertime zonal mean winds in the troposphere. EOF1 shows the distribution of zonal-mean flow anomalies with higher variance in the North Polar Region, whereas the EOF2 shows the distribution of zonal-mean flow anomalies with higher variance in tropical and extra-tropical regions. The EOF1 and EOF2 have respectively the periodicities similar to those of AO and ENSO. Significant lag correlations have been found between EOF1 and ENSO, and between EOF2 and AO, in the seasons including spring, autumn, and winter. However, no significant correlations have been found between EOF1 in summer and ENSO in any other seasons, and between EOF2 in summer and AO in other seasons, no matter how big the lag that represents number of seasons has been set. These results suggest that the principal modes of summertime zonal mean flow could be statistically separated from each other. Hence, EOF1 and EOF2 are physically related to the AO and ENSO respectively. A theory called quasi-geostrophic non-acceleration theorem has been used to partly explain the possible mechanisms of the maintenance of the two principal modes. The composite differences of the divergence of Eliassen-Palm flux （E-P flux） between positive and negative years as obtained from the time series of EOF1 and EOF2 display the distributions that contribute to the zonal mean wind anomalies represented by EOF1 and EOF2, respectively. The planetary other than the synoptic waves dominate the behaviors of the E-P fluxes, suggesting the crucial role of the planetary waves in the maintenance of the zonal mean flow anomalies. The residual circulation as well as the friction, which cancel the divergence of the E-P flux, also play an important role in some places. These results are very helpful for our better understanding how the anomalous zonal mean flows maintain and how the ENSO and AO influence the global climate variations.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorology)of China(Grant No.GYHY201306031)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40905040)the National Science Foundation of United States(Grant No.1107509)
文摘This paper examines the dominant submonthly variability of zonally symmetrical atmospheric circula- tion in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） winter within the context of the Northern Annular Mode （NAM）, with particular emphasis on interactive stratosphere-troposphere processes. The submonthly variability is identified and measured using a daily NAM index, which concentrates primarily on zonally symmetrical circulation. A schematic lifecycle of submonthly variability is developed that reveals a two-way coupling pro- cess between the stratosphere and troposphere in the NH polar region. Specifically, anomalous tropospheric zonal winds in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic propagate upwards to the low stratosphere, disturbing the polar vortex, and resulting in an anomalous stratospheric geopotential height （HGT） that subsequently propagates down into the troposphere and changes the sign of the surface circulations. From the standpoint of planetary-scale wave activities, a feedback loop is also evident when the anoma- lous planetary-scale waves （with wavenumbers 2 and 3） propagate upwards, which disturbs the anomalous zonally symmetrical flow in the low stratosphere, and induces the anomalous HGT to move poleward in the low stratosphere, and then propagates down into the troposphere. This increases the energy of waves at wavenumbers 2 and 3 in the low troposphere in middle latitudes by enhancing the land-sea contrast of the anomalous HGT field. Thus, this study supports the viewpoint that the downward propagation of stratospheric NAM signals may not originate in the stratosphere.
基金The study was financed by theNational Key Project for Development of Science and Tech-nology(96-908-02),by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China under Grant No.40175013,and partly bythe Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (ZKC)
文摘An analysis of a large number of cases of 500 hPa height monthly prediction shows that systematic errors exist in the zonal mean components which account for a large portion of the total forecast errors, and such errors are commonly seen in other prediction models. To overcome the difficulties of the numerical model, the authors attempt a 'hybrid' approach to improving the dynamical extended-range (monthly) prediction. The monthly pentad-mean nonlinear dynamical regional prediction model of the zonal-mean geopotential height (wave number 0) based on a large amount of data is constituted by employing the reconstruction of phase-space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method. The dynamical prediction of the numerical model is then combined with that of the nonlinear model, i.e., the pentadmean zonal-mean height produced by the nonlinear model is transformed to its counterpart in the numerical model by nudging during the time integration. The forecast experiment results show that the above hybrid approach not only reduces the systematic error in zonal mean height by the numerical model, but also makes an improvement in the non-axisymmetric components due to the wave-flow interaction.
基金Supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675025the Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster under Grant No.KLME060101the National Key Technology R&D Program under Grant No.2007BAC29B02.
文摘The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been employed to diagnose variations of the zonal mean flow in boreal summer. Two leading EOF modes are found to dominate the spatial and temporal changes of the summertime zonal mean winds in the troposphere. EOF1 shows the distribution of zonal-mean flow anomalies with higher variance in the North Polar Region, whereas the EOF2 shows the distribution of zonal-mean flow anomalies with higher variance in tropical and extra-tropical regions. The EOF1 and EOF2 have respectively the periodicities similar to those of AO and ENSO. Significant lag correlations have been found between EOF1 and ENSO, and between EOF2 and AO, in the seasons including spring, autumn, and winter. However, no significant correlations have been found between EOF1 in summer and ENSO in any other seasons, and between EOF2 in summer and AO in other seasons, no matter how big the lag that represents number of seasons has been set. These results suggest that the principal modes of summertime zonal mean flow could be statistically separated from each other. Hence, EOF1 and EOF2 are physically related to the AO and ENSO respectively. A theory called quasi-geostrophic non-acceleration theorem has been used to partly explain the possible mechanisms of the maintenance of the two principal modes. The composite differences of the divergence of Eliassen-Palm flux （E-P flux） between positive and negative years as obtained from the time series of EOF1 and EOF2 display the distributions that contribute to the zonal mean wind anomalies represented by EOF1 and EOF2, respectively. The planetary other than the synoptic waves dominate the behaviors of the E-P fluxes, suggesting the crucial role of the planetary waves in the maintenance of the zonal mean flow anomalies. The residual circulation as well as the friction, which cancel the divergence of the E-P flux, also play an important role in some places. These results are very helpful for our better understanding how the anomalous zonal mean flows maintain and how the ENSO and AO influence the global climate variations.
