The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors...The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors.Based on the traditional Poisson model and the negative binomial model,different forms of zero-inflated and hurdle models were applied to spruce-fir mixed forests data to simulate the number of dead trees.By comparing the residuals and Vuong test statistics,the zero-inflated negative binomial model performed best.A random effect was added to improve the model accuracy;however,the mixed-effects zero-inflated model did not show increased advantages.According to the model principle,the zeroinflated negative binomial model was the most suitable,indicating that the"0"events in this study,mainly from the sample"0",i.e.,the zero mortality data,are largely due to the limitations of the experimental design and sample selection.These results also show that the number of dead trees in the diameter class is positively correlated with the number of trees in that class and the mean stand diameter,and inversely related to class size,and slope and aspect of the site.展开更多
In a typical Kenyan HIV clinical setting, there is a likelihood of registering many zeros during the routine monthly data collection of new HIV infections among HIV exposed infants (HEI). This is attributed to the imp...In a typical Kenyan HIV clinical setting, there is a likelihood of registering many zeros during the routine monthly data collection of new HIV infections among HIV exposed infants (HEI). This is attributed to the implementation of the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) policies. However, even though the PMTCT policy is implemented uniformly across all public health facilities, implementation naturally differs from every facility due to differential health systems and infrastructure. This leads to structured zero among reported positive HEI (where PMTCT implementation is optimum) and non-structured zero among reported positive HEI (where PMTCT implementation is not optimum). Hence the classical zero-inflated and hurdle models that do not account for the abundance of structured and non-structured zeros in the data can give misleading results. The purpose of this study is to systematically compare performance of the various zero-inflated models with an application to HIV Exposed Infants (HEI) in the context of structured and unstructured zeros. We revisit zero-inflated, hurdle models, Poisson and negative binomial count models and conduct the simulations by varying sample size and levels of abundance zeros. Results from simulation study and real data analysis of exposed infant diagnosis show the negative binomial emerging as the best performing model when fitting data with both structured and non-structured zeros under various settings.展开更多
Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to compl...Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to completely and accurately analyze findings in sub-healthy population. This study aims to compare the goodness of fit for count outcome models to identify the optimum model for sub-health study.Methods The sample of the study derived from a large-scale population survey on physiological and psychological constants from 2007 to 2011 in 4 provinces and 2 autonomous regions in China. We constructed four count outcome models using SAS: Poisson model, negative binomial (NB) model, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The number of sub-health symptoms was used as the main outcome measure. The alpha dispersion parameter and O test were used to identify over-dispersed data, and Vuong test was used to evaluate the excessive zero count. The goodness of fit of regression models were determined by predictive probability curves and statistics of likelihood ratio test.Results Of all 78 307 respondents, 38.53% reported no sub-health symptoms. The mean number of sub-health symptoms was 2.98, and the standard deviation was 3.72. The statistic O in over-dispersion test was 720.995 (P<0.001); the estimated alpha was 0.618 (95% CI: 0.600-0.636) comparing ZINB model and ZIP model; Vuong test statistic Z was 45.487. These results indicated over-dispersion of the data and excessive zero counts in this sub-health study. ZINB model had the largest log likelihood (-167 519), the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion coefficient (335 112) and the smallest Bayesian information criterion coefficient (335455),indicating its best goodness of fit. The predictive probabilities for most counts in ZINB model fitted the observed counts best. The logit section of ZINB model analysis showed that age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity and obesity were determinants for presence of sub-health symptoms; the binomial negative section of ZINB model analysis showed that sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity, marital status and obesity had significant effect on the severity of sub-health.Conclusions All tests for goodness of fit and the predictive probability curve produced the same finding that ZINB model was the optimum model for exploring the influencing factors of sub-health symptoms.展开更多
This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estima...This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The results of a modest simulation study are presented.展开更多
Zero-Inflated Poisson model has found a wide variety of applications in recent years in statistical analyses of count data, especially in count regression models. Zero-Inflated Poisson model is characterized in this p...Zero-Inflated Poisson model has found a wide variety of applications in recent years in statistical analyses of count data, especially in count regression models. Zero-Inflated Poisson model is characterized in this paper through a linear differential equation satisfied by its probability generating function [1] [2].展开更多
Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLM...Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.展开更多
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy...In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.展开更多
In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation ...In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation is provided”and that“the validation step is largely overlooked”.This assertion may have been true several years ago,for example,when Ochoa and Urbina-Cardona(2017)made a similar observation.However,there has been much work on ES model validation over the last decade.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the prefere...Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the preferences of Chinese dermatologists regarding LLM-generated responses in clinical psoriasis scenarios and to assess how they prioritize key quality dimensions,including accuracy,traceability,and logicality.Methods:A cross-sectional,web-based survey was conducted between December 25,2024,and January 22,2025,following the Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys guidelines.A total of 1247 valid responses were collected from practicing dermatologists across 33 of China's provincial-level administrative divisions.Participants evaluated responses to five categories of clinical questions(etiology,clinical presentation,differential diagnosis,treatment,and case study)generated by five LLMs:ChatGPT-4o,Kimi.ai,Doubao,ZuoYiGPT,and Lingyi-agent.Statistical associations between participant characteristics and model preferences were examined using chi-square tests.Results:ChatGPT-4o(Model 1)emerged as the most preferred model across all clinical tasks,consistently receiving the highest number of votes in case study(n=740),clinical presentation(n=666),differential diagnosis(n=707),etiology(n=602),and treatment(n=656).Significant variation in model preference by professional title was observed only for the differential diagnosis task(χ^(2)=21.13,df=12,p=0.0485),while no significant differences were found across hospital tiers(p>0.05).In terms of evaluation dimensions,accuracy was most frequently rated as“very important”(n=635).A significant association existed between hospital tier and the most valued dimension(χ^(2)=27.667,df=9,p=0.0011),with dermatologists in primary hospitals prioritizing traceability more than their peers in higher-tier hospitals.No significant associations were found across professional titles(p=0.127).Conclusions:Chinese dermatologists suggest a strong preference for ChatGPT-4o over domestic LLMs in psoriasis-related clinical tasks.While accuracy remains the primary criterion,traceability and logicality are also critical,particularly for clinicians in lower-tier hospitals.These findings suggest that future clinical LLMs should prioritize not only content accuracy but also source transparency and structural clarity to meet the diverse needs of different clinical settings.展开更多
The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)technique enables critical engineering predictions and is widely adopted.However,since this iterative computation relies on the fixed-point iteration,it may converge to unexpec...The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)technique enables critical engineering predictions and is widely adopted.However,since this iterative computation relies on the fixed-point iteration,it may converge to unexpected non-physical phase points in practice.We conduct an analysis on the phase-space characteristics and the fixed-point theory underlying the k-ε turbulence model,and employ the classical Kolmogorov flow as a framework,leveraging its direct numerical simulation(DNS)data to construct a one-dimensional(1D)system under periodic/fixed boundary conditions.The RANS results demonstrate that under periodic boundary conditions,the k-ε model exhibits only a unique trivial fixed point,with asymptotes capturing the phase portraits.The stability of this trivial fixed point is determined by a mathematically derived stability phase diagram,indicating the fact that the k-ε model will never converge to correct values under periodic conditions.In contrast,under fixed boundary conditions,the model can yield a stable non-trivial fixed point.The evolutionary mechanisms and their relationship with boundary condition settings systematically explain the inherent limitations of the k-ε model,i.e.,its deficiency in computing the flow field under periodic boundary conditions and sensitivity to boundary-value specifications under fixed boundary conditions.These conclusions are finally validated with the open-source code OpenFOAM.展开更多
Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is empl...Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.展开更多
Coordinate transformation models often fail to account for nonlinear and spatially dependent distortions,leading to significant residual errors in geospatial applications.Here,we propose a residual-based neural correc...Coordinate transformation models often fail to account for nonlinear and spatially dependent distortions,leading to significant residual errors in geospatial applications.Here,we propose a residual-based neural correction(RBNC)strategy,in which a neural network learns to model only the systematic distortions left by an initial geometric transformation.By focusing solely on residual patterns,RBNC reduces model complexity and improves performance,particularly in scenarios with sparse or structured control point configurations.We evaluate the method using both simulated datasets(with varying distortion intensities and sampling strategies)and real-world image georeferencing tasks.Compared with direct neural network coordinate converters and classical transformation models,RBNC delivers more accurate and stable results under challenging conditions,while maintaining comparable performance in ideal cases.These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of residual modelling as a light-weight and robust alternative for improving coordinate transformation accuracy.展开更多
Recommendation systems are key to boosting user engagement,satisfaction,and retention,particularly on media platforms where personalized content is vital.Sequential recommendation systems learn from user-item interact...Recommendation systems are key to boosting user engagement,satisfaction,and retention,particularly on media platforms where personalized content is vital.Sequential recommendation systems learn from user-item interactions to predict future items of interest.However,many current methods rely on unique user and item IDs,limiting their ability to represent users and items effectively,especially in zero-shot learning scenarios where training data is scarce.With the rapid development of Large Language Models(LLMs),researchers are exploring their potential to enhance recommendation systems.However,there is a semantic gap between the linguistic semantics of LLMs and the collaborative semantics of recommendation systems,where items are typically indexed by IDs.Moreover,most research focuses on item representations,neglecting personalized user modeling.To address these issues,we propose a sequential recommendation framework using LLMs,called CIT-Rec,a model that integrates Collaborative semantics for user representation and Image and Text information for item representation to enhance Recommendations.Specifically,by aligning intuitive image information with text containing semantic features,we can more accurately represent items,improving item representation quality.We focus not only on item representations but also on user representations.To more precisely capture users’personalized preferences,we use traditional sequential recommendation models to train on users’historical interaction data,effectively capturing behavioral patterns.Finally,by combining LLMs and traditional sequential recommendation models,we allow the LLM to understand linguistic semantics while capturing collaborative semantics.Extensive evaluations on real-world datasets show that our model outperforms baseline methods,effectively combining user interaction history with item visual and textual modalities to provide personalized recommendations.展开更多
The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-bas...The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.展开更多
(Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbi...(Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbitrary-elevation one-cylinder model.The derived results include a closed-form expression for the space-time correlation function and some quasi-closed-form ones for the space-Doppler power spectrum density,the level crossing rate,and the average fading duration,which are shown to be the generalizations of those previously obtained from the two-dimensional(2-D)one-ring model and the 3-D low-elevation one-cylinder model for terrestrial mobile-to-mobile channels.The close agreements between the theoretical results and the simulations as well as the measurements validate the utility of the derived channel statistics.Based on the derived expressions,the impacts of some parameters on the channel characteristics are investigated in an effective,efficient,and explicable way,which leads to a general guideline on the manual parameter estimation from the measurement description.展开更多
In this paper,we consider testing the hypothesis concerning the means of two independent semicontinuous distributions whose observations are zero-inflated,characterized by a sizable number of zeros and positive observ...In this paper,we consider testing the hypothesis concerning the means of two independent semicontinuous distributions whose observations are zero-inflated,characterized by a sizable number of zeros and positive observations from a continuous distribution.The continuous parts of the two semicontinuous distributions are assumed to follow a density ratio model.A new two-part test is developed for this kind of data.The proposed test takes the sum of one test for equality of proportions of zero values and one conditional test for the continuous distribution.The test is proved to follow a 2 distribution with two degrees of freedom.Simulation studies show that the proposed test controls the type I error rates at the desired level,and is competitive to,and most of the time more powerful than two popular tests.A real data example from a dietary intervention study is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed test.展开更多
Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow ...Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Using the‘cupball'model,this study analyzes the limiting factors and restoration characteristics across four mining areas and proposes a conceptual model for selecting appropriate restoration approaches.A second conceptual model is then introduced to address regional development needs,incorporating ecological conservation,safety protection,and people's wellbeing.The applicability of the integrated model selection framework is demonstrated through a case study on the south bank of the Qinglongjian River.The results indicate that:(1)The key limiting factors are similar across cases,but the degree of ecological degradation varies.(2)Mildly degraded areas are represented by a shallower and narrower‘cup',where natural recovery is the preferred approach,whereas moderately and severely degraded systems call for assisted regeneration and ecological reconstruction,respectively.(3)When the restoration models determined based on limiting factors and development needs are consistent,the model is directly applicable;if they differ,the option involving less artificial intervention is preferred;(4)Monitoring of the restored mining area on the Qinglongjian River's south bank confirms significant improvements in soil erosion control and vegetation coverage.This study provides a transferable methodology for balancing resource extraction with ecosystem conservation,offering practical insights for other ecologically vulnerable mining regions.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,i...Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.展开更多
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(...Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].展开更多
基金supported by the "948" Project of the State Forestry Administration of China(No.2013-4-66)
文摘The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors.Based on the traditional Poisson model and the negative binomial model,different forms of zero-inflated and hurdle models were applied to spruce-fir mixed forests data to simulate the number of dead trees.By comparing the residuals and Vuong test statistics,the zero-inflated negative binomial model performed best.A random effect was added to improve the model accuracy;however,the mixed-effects zero-inflated model did not show increased advantages.According to the model principle,the zeroinflated negative binomial model was the most suitable,indicating that the"0"events in this study,mainly from the sample"0",i.e.,the zero mortality data,are largely due to the limitations of the experimental design and sample selection.These results also show that the number of dead trees in the diameter class is positively correlated with the number of trees in that class and the mean stand diameter,and inversely related to class size,and slope and aspect of the site.
文摘In a typical Kenyan HIV clinical setting, there is a likelihood of registering many zeros during the routine monthly data collection of new HIV infections among HIV exposed infants (HEI). This is attributed to the implementation of the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) policies. However, even though the PMTCT policy is implemented uniformly across all public health facilities, implementation naturally differs from every facility due to differential health systems and infrastructure. This leads to structured zero among reported positive HEI (where PMTCT implementation is optimum) and non-structured zero among reported positive HEI (where PMTCT implementation is not optimum). Hence the classical zero-inflated and hurdle models that do not account for the abundance of structured and non-structured zeros in the data can give misleading results. The purpose of this study is to systematically compare performance of the various zero-inflated models with an application to HIV Exposed Infants (HEI) in the context of structured and unstructured zeros. We revisit zero-inflated, hurdle models, Poisson and negative binomial count models and conduct the simulations by varying sample size and levels of abundance zeros. Results from simulation study and real data analysis of exposed infant diagnosis show the negative binomial emerging as the best performing model when fitting data with both structured and non-structured zeros under various settings.
基金supported by the Basic Performance Key Project,the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(No.2006FY110300)
文摘Objective Sub-health status has progressively gained more attention from both medical professionals and the publics. Treating the number of sub-health symptoms as count data rather than dichotomous data helps to completely and accurately analyze findings in sub-healthy population. This study aims to compare the goodness of fit for count outcome models to identify the optimum model for sub-health study.Methods The sample of the study derived from a large-scale population survey on physiological and psychological constants from 2007 to 2011 in 4 provinces and 2 autonomous regions in China. We constructed four count outcome models using SAS: Poisson model, negative binomial (NB) model, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The number of sub-health symptoms was used as the main outcome measure. The alpha dispersion parameter and O test were used to identify over-dispersed data, and Vuong test was used to evaluate the excessive zero count. The goodness of fit of regression models were determined by predictive probability curves and statistics of likelihood ratio test.Results Of all 78 307 respondents, 38.53% reported no sub-health symptoms. The mean number of sub-health symptoms was 2.98, and the standard deviation was 3.72. The statistic O in over-dispersion test was 720.995 (P<0.001); the estimated alpha was 0.618 (95% CI: 0.600-0.636) comparing ZINB model and ZIP model; Vuong test statistic Z was 45.487. These results indicated over-dispersion of the data and excessive zero counts in this sub-health study. ZINB model had the largest log likelihood (-167 519), the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion coefficient (335 112) and the smallest Bayesian information criterion coefficient (335455),indicating its best goodness of fit. The predictive probabilities for most counts in ZINB model fitted the observed counts best. The logit section of ZINB model analysis showed that age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity and obesity were determinants for presence of sub-health symptoms; the binomial negative section of ZINB model analysis showed that sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, ethnicity, marital status and obesity had significant effect on the severity of sub-health.Conclusions All tests for goodness of fit and the predictive probability curve produced the same finding that ZINB model was the optimum model for exploring the influencing factors of sub-health symptoms.
文摘This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The results of a modest simulation study are presented.
文摘Zero-Inflated Poisson model has found a wide variety of applications in recent years in statistical analyses of count data, especially in count regression models. Zero-Inflated Poisson model is characterized in this paper through a linear differential equation satisfied by its probability generating function [1] [2].
文摘Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261018)Universities Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Data Mining in Guizhou Province(2023013)。
文摘In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.
文摘In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation is provided”and that“the validation step is largely overlooked”.This assertion may have been true several years ago,for example,when Ochoa and Urbina-Cardona(2017)made a similar observation.However,there has been much work on ES model validation over the last decade.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2024YFF0507404Special Clinical Business Fund for High-Level Hospitals of China-Japan Friendship Hospital,Grant/Award Number:2024-NHLHCRF-TS-01。
文摘Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the preferences of Chinese dermatologists regarding LLM-generated responses in clinical psoriasis scenarios and to assess how they prioritize key quality dimensions,including accuracy,traceability,and logicality.Methods:A cross-sectional,web-based survey was conducted between December 25,2024,and January 22,2025,following the Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys guidelines.A total of 1247 valid responses were collected from practicing dermatologists across 33 of China's provincial-level administrative divisions.Participants evaluated responses to five categories of clinical questions(etiology,clinical presentation,differential diagnosis,treatment,and case study)generated by five LLMs:ChatGPT-4o,Kimi.ai,Doubao,ZuoYiGPT,and Lingyi-agent.Statistical associations between participant characteristics and model preferences were examined using chi-square tests.Results:ChatGPT-4o(Model 1)emerged as the most preferred model across all clinical tasks,consistently receiving the highest number of votes in case study(n=740),clinical presentation(n=666),differential diagnosis(n=707),etiology(n=602),and treatment(n=656).Significant variation in model preference by professional title was observed only for the differential diagnosis task(χ^(2)=21.13,df=12,p=0.0485),while no significant differences were found across hospital tiers(p>0.05).In terms of evaluation dimensions,accuracy was most frequently rated as“very important”(n=635).A significant association existed between hospital tier and the most valued dimension(χ^(2)=27.667,df=9,p=0.0011),with dermatologists in primary hospitals prioritizing traceability more than their peers in higher-tier hospitals.No significant associations were found across professional titles(p=0.127).Conclusions:Chinese dermatologists suggest a strong preference for ChatGPT-4o over domestic LLMs in psoriasis-related clinical tasks.While accuracy remains the primary criterion,traceability and logicality are also critical,particularly for clinicians in lower-tier hospitals.These findings suggest that future clinical LLMs should prioritize not only content accuracy but also source transparency and structural clarity to meet the diverse needs of different clinical settings.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12372214 and U2341231)。
文摘The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)technique enables critical engineering predictions and is widely adopted.However,since this iterative computation relies on the fixed-point iteration,it may converge to unexpected non-physical phase points in practice.We conduct an analysis on the phase-space characteristics and the fixed-point theory underlying the k-ε turbulence model,and employ the classical Kolmogorov flow as a framework,leveraging its direct numerical simulation(DNS)data to construct a one-dimensional(1D)system under periodic/fixed boundary conditions.The RANS results demonstrate that under periodic boundary conditions,the k-ε model exhibits only a unique trivial fixed point,with asymptotes capturing the phase portraits.The stability of this trivial fixed point is determined by a mathematically derived stability phase diagram,indicating the fact that the k-ε model will never converge to correct values under periodic conditions.In contrast,under fixed boundary conditions,the model can yield a stable non-trivial fixed point.The evolutionary mechanisms and their relationship with boundary condition settings systematically explain the inherent limitations of the k-ε model,i.e.,its deficiency in computing the flow field under periodic boundary conditions and sensitivity to boundary-value specifications under fixed boundary conditions.These conclusions are finally validated with the open-source code OpenFOAM.
文摘Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.
基金National Council for Scientific and Technological Development,Grant No.421278/2023-4,No.309248/2025-6。
文摘Coordinate transformation models often fail to account for nonlinear and spatially dependent distortions,leading to significant residual errors in geospatial applications.Here,we propose a residual-based neural correction(RBNC)strategy,in which a neural network learns to model only the systematic distortions left by an initial geometric transformation.By focusing solely on residual patterns,RBNC reduces model complexity and improves performance,particularly in scenarios with sparse or structured control point configurations.We evaluate the method using both simulated datasets(with varying distortion intensities and sampling strategies)and real-world image georeferencing tasks.Compared with direct neural network coordinate converters and classical transformation models,RBNC delivers more accurate and stable results under challenging conditions,while maintaining comparable performance in ideal cases.These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of residual modelling as a light-weight and robust alternative for improving coordinate transformation accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[2022YFF0902703]the State Administration for Market Regulation Science and Technology Plan Project(2024MK033).
文摘Recommendation systems are key to boosting user engagement,satisfaction,and retention,particularly on media platforms where personalized content is vital.Sequential recommendation systems learn from user-item interactions to predict future items of interest.However,many current methods rely on unique user and item IDs,limiting their ability to represent users and items effectively,especially in zero-shot learning scenarios where training data is scarce.With the rapid development of Large Language Models(LLMs),researchers are exploring their potential to enhance recommendation systems.However,there is a semantic gap between the linguistic semantics of LLMs and the collaborative semantics of recommendation systems,where items are typically indexed by IDs.Moreover,most research focuses on item representations,neglecting personalized user modeling.To address these issues,we propose a sequential recommendation framework using LLMs,called CIT-Rec,a model that integrates Collaborative semantics for user representation and Image and Text information for item representation to enhance Recommendations.Specifically,by aligning intuitive image information with text containing semantic features,we can more accurately represent items,improving item representation quality.We focus not only on item representations but also on user representations.To more precisely capture users’personalized preferences,we use traditional sequential recommendation models to train on users’historical interaction data,effectively capturing behavioral patterns.Finally,by combining LLMs and traditional sequential recommendation models,we allow the LLM to understand linguistic semantics while capturing collaborative semantics.Extensive evaluations on real-world datasets show that our model outperforms baseline methods,effectively combining user interaction history with item visual and textual modalities to provide personalized recommendations.
基金supported by the CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program and Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Research Program(2019QZKK0708)as well as the Basic Research Program of Qinghai Province:Lithospheric Geomagnetic Field of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Relationship with Strong Earthquakes(2021-ZJ-969Q).
文摘The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB2900501)in part by the Shaanxi Science and Technology Innovation Team(2023-CX-TD-03)+3 种基金in part by the Science and Technology Program of Shaanxi Province(2021GXLH-Z-038)in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ40607 and 2023JJ50045)in part by the Scientific Research Foundation of Hunan Provincial Education Department(23B0713 and 24B0603)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62401371,62101275,and 62372070).
文摘(Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbitrary-elevation one-cylinder model.The derived results include a closed-form expression for the space-time correlation function and some quasi-closed-form ones for the space-Doppler power spectrum density,the level crossing rate,and the average fading duration,which are shown to be the generalizations of those previously obtained from the two-dimensional(2-D)one-ring model and the 3-D low-elevation one-cylinder model for terrestrial mobile-to-mobile channels.The close agreements between the theoretical results and the simulations as well as the measurements validate the utility of the derived channel statistics.Based on the derived expressions,the impacts of some parameters on the channel characteristics are investigated in an effective,efficient,and explicable way,which leads to a general guideline on the manual parameter estimation from the measurement description.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11971433)the First Class Discipline of Zhejiang-A(Zhejiang Gongshang University-Statistics)the Intramural Research Program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.
文摘In this paper,we consider testing the hypothesis concerning the means of two independent semicontinuous distributions whose observations are zero-inflated,characterized by a sizable number of zeros and positive observations from a continuous distribution.The continuous parts of the two semicontinuous distributions are assumed to follow a density ratio model.A new two-part test is developed for this kind of data.The proposed test takes the sum of one test for equality of proportions of zero values and one conditional test for the continuous distribution.The test is proved to follow a 2 distribution with two degrees of freedom.Simulation studies show that the proposed test controls the type I error rates at the desired level,and is competitive to,and most of the time more powerful than two popular tests.A real data example from a dietary intervention study is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed test.
基金supported by Special major projects for research and development of Henan Provincial(Science and Technology Research Project)(No.252102321104)Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation,Ministry of Education(24YJCZH410)。
文摘Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Using the‘cupball'model,this study analyzes the limiting factors and restoration characteristics across four mining areas and proposes a conceptual model for selecting appropriate restoration approaches.A second conceptual model is then introduced to address regional development needs,incorporating ecological conservation,safety protection,and people's wellbeing.The applicability of the integrated model selection framework is demonstrated through a case study on the south bank of the Qinglongjian River.The results indicate that:(1)The key limiting factors are similar across cases,but the degree of ecological degradation varies.(2)Mildly degraded areas are represented by a shallower and narrower‘cup',where natural recovery is the preferred approach,whereas moderately and severely degraded systems call for assisted regeneration and ecological reconstruction,respectively.(3)When the restoration models determined based on limiting factors and development needs are consistent,the model is directly applicable;if they differ,the option involving less artificial intervention is preferred;(4)Monitoring of the restored mining area on the Qinglongjian River's south bank confirms significant improvements in soil erosion control and vegetation coverage.This study provides a transferable methodology for balancing resource extraction with ecosystem conservation,offering practical insights for other ecologically vulnerable mining regions.
基金supported by the Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142211)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075141,42341202 and 62088101)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2021SHZDZX0100).
文摘Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.
文摘Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].
