Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficie...Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.展开更多
As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To ove...As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To overcome this challenge, technology forecasting isconsidered as a powerful tool in today's business environment, while there are as many successstories as there are failures, a good application of this method will give a good result. Amethodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance ispresented, which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting, as input to the QFD process to designa new product. For this purpose, TRIZ technology forecasting, one of the TRIZ major tools, isdiscussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted. Thena methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.展开更多
In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase ...In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.展开更多
The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing m...The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.展开更多
With the acceleration of social and economic development, China's agro-meteorological service has become more complete. Through the application of advanced scientific meteorological disaster monitoring and predict...With the acceleration of social and economic development, China's agro-meteorological service has become more complete. Through the application of advanced scientific meteorological disaster monitoring and prediction technology, the adverse impact of disaster problems on agricultural development can be better controlled, and the quality of agricultural production can be ensured. In view of this, this paper takes the evaluation standard of agr--ometeorological disasters as the breakthrough point, and puts forward the contents and practical application points of current monitoring and prediction technologies of various agrometeorological disasters for reference.展开更多
Anticancer targets of cryptotanshinone were evaluated and rapidly forecasted with PharmMapper, a reverse pharmacophore-based screening platform, as well as drug target databases, including PDTD, DrugBank and TTD. The ...Anticancer targets of cryptotanshinone were evaluated and rapidly forecasted with PharmMapper, a reverse pharmacophore-based screening platform, as well as drug target databases, including PDTD, DrugBank and TTD. The pathway analyses for the collection of anticancer targets screened were carried out based on the KEGG pathway database, followed by the forecast of potential pharmacological activities and pathways of the effects of cryptotanshinone, and verification of some of the targets screened using whole cell tests. The results showed that a total of eight targets with anticancer potential were screened, including MAP2K1, RARα, RXRα, PDK1, CHK1, AR, Ang-1 R, and Kif11. These targets are mainly related to four aspects of the cancer growth: the cell cycle, angiogenesis, apoptosis, and androgen receptor. The cell tests showed that cryptotanshinone can inhibit the viability of human hepatoma cells SMMC-7721, which is related to the reduction of expression of MAP2K1 mRNA. This method provides a strong clue for the study of the anticancer effects and mechanisms of action of cryptotanshinone in the future.展开更多
The underground hydropower projects in Southwest China is characterized by large excavation sizes,high geostresses,complicated geological conditions and multiple construction processes.Various disasters such as collap...The underground hydropower projects in Southwest China is characterized by large excavation sizes,high geostresses,complicated geological conditions and multiple construction processes.Various disasters such as collapses,large deformations,rockbursts are frequently encountered,resulting in serious casualties and huge economic losses.This review mainly presents some representative results on microseismic(MS)monitoring and forecasting for disasters in hydropower underground engineering.First,a set of new denoising,spectral analysis,and location methods were developed for better identification and location of MS signals.Then,the tempo-spatial characteristics of MS events were analyzed to understand the relationship between field construction and damages of surrounding rocks.Combined with field construction,geological data,numerical simulation and parametric analysis of MS sources,the focal mechanism of MS events was revealed.A damage constitutive model considering MS fracturing size was put forward and feedback analysis considering the MS damage of underground surrounding rocks was conducted.Next,an MS multi-parameter based risk assessment and early warning method for dynamic disasters were proposed.The technology for control of the damage and deformation of underground surrounding rocks was proposed for underground caverns.Finally,two typical underground powerhouses were selected as case studies.These achievements can provide significant references for prevention and control of dynamic disasters for underground engineering with similar complicated geological conditions.展开更多
In recent years environmental and sustainability concerns have impacted the global chemical industry and instituted a rush to produce products from renewable raw materials.This dynamic,complex and turbulent organizati...In recent years environmental and sustainability concerns have impacted the global chemical industry and instituted a rush to produce products from renewable raw materials.This dynamic,complex and turbulent organizational scenario,around themes touching on the issue of sustainable development model,was created involving a large number of different actors:chemical/petrochemical industries,agroindustry companies,oil/gas companies,brand owners and end users,biotechnology startups,governments,universities and society.This paper proposed the application of a structured and dynamic method of technological prediction for biopolymers in three levels:systematic monitoring process,relational database and the“alive”Technology Roadmapping visualization tool.The main objective is to identify strategic actions,business models,the latest´s technologies in development,as well as trends in the field of biopolymers in order to support companies on position themselves in this competitive scenario.Furthermore,companies,universities,government agencies and institutions could apply this dynamic and alive methodology to indeed access innovation opportunities,challenges and threats for different industrial segments and to provide dynamic knowledge management collaborating to their strategy including a database crossing for the all organization.展开更多
The study was aimed to examine the need of incorporating traditional weather forecasting renowned indigenous knowledge system (IKS) into modern weather forecasting methods to be used for planning farming activities. I...The study was aimed to examine the need of incorporating traditional weather forecasting renowned indigenous knowledge system (IKS) into modern weather forecasting methods to be used for planning farming activities. In addition, not only gap that is not infused by current weather forecasting system with their advanced studies to understand why it is incorporated into existing technical frameworks was regarded, but also the limitation of advanced weather forecasting approach and strength to be elicited by indigenous knowledge system are crucial. Perspicuously, forms and onsite interrogates have been conducted to assess people’s beliefs, understanding, and attitudes on the indigenous knowledge system significance on weather forecasting. Therefore, atmospheric and biological conditions, astronomic, as well as relief characteristics were used to predict the weather over short and long periods. Usually, in assessing weather conditions, the conduct of animals and insects were listed as essential. Obviously, in order to predict weather particularly from rain within about short period of time, astronomical characteristics were used. Commonly, there are few peers who know conventional weather prediction approaches. This lowers the reliability of conventional weather prediction. The findings revealed some variables that impact meteorological inaccuracy by scientific methods and help to recognize and evaluate the gap that current meteorological technologies do not achieve and new particulars anticipated to be filled with conventional methods to attain accurate weather prediction. Additionally, the study indicated that both modern and conventional processes have certain positive and limitations, which means that they can be coupled to generate more accurate weather prediction reports for end users.展开更多
A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 ...A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20<sup>th</sup> century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21<sup>st</sup> century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation.展开更多
In recent years, China has attached great importance to the research in the field of hydrology, and hydrological work has also made great progress. Hydrological information forecasting is the focus of hydrological wor...In recent years, China has attached great importance to the research in the field of hydrology, and hydrological work has also made great progress. Hydrological information forecasting is the focus of hydrological work, and it has close relationship with social development and people’s life. After long-term development. More and more advanced information technology has gradually been applied in hydrological information forecasting, among which GIS has effectively improved the level of hydrological information forecasting.This paper analyzes the application of GIS in hydrological information forecasting to provide an in-depth understanding of this technology.展开更多
文摘Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.20172041) and Provincial Science Foundation of Anhui, China (No.03042308).
文摘As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To overcome this challenge, technology forecasting isconsidered as a powerful tool in today's business environment, while there are as many successstories as there are failures, a good application of this method will give a good result. Amethodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance ispresented, which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting, as input to the QFD process to designa new product. For this purpose, TRIZ technology forecasting, one of the TRIZ major tools, isdiscussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted. Thena methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.
文摘In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421 401)
文摘The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.
文摘With the acceleration of social and economic development, China's agro-meteorological service has become more complete. Through the application of advanced scientific meteorological disaster monitoring and prediction technology, the adverse impact of disaster problems on agricultural development can be better controlled, and the quality of agricultural production can be ensured. In view of this, this paper takes the evaluation standard of agr--ometeorological disasters as the breakthrough point, and puts forward the contents and practical application points of current monitoring and prediction technologies of various agrometeorological disasters for reference.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China(No.11KJB360004)the Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.BK2012458),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.81373232,81173174,81270514)+1 种基金the National Key Technology R&D Program during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2008BAI51B02)the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(No.20113237110008)
文摘Anticancer targets of cryptotanshinone were evaluated and rapidly forecasted with PharmMapper, a reverse pharmacophore-based screening platform, as well as drug target databases, including PDTD, DrugBank and TTD. The pathway analyses for the collection of anticancer targets screened were carried out based on the KEGG pathway database, followed by the forecast of potential pharmacological activities and pathways of the effects of cryptotanshinone, and verification of some of the targets screened using whole cell tests. The results showed that a total of eight targets with anticancer potential were screened, including MAP2K1, RARα, RXRα, PDK1, CHK1, AR, Ang-1 R, and Kif11. These targets are mainly related to four aspects of the cancer growth: the cell cycle, angiogenesis, apoptosis, and androgen receptor. The cell tests showed that cryptotanshinone can inhibit the viability of human hepatoma cells SMMC-7721, which is related to the reduction of expression of MAP2K1 mRNA. This method provides a strong clue for the study of the anticancer effects and mechanisms of action of cryptotanshinone in the future.
基金The authors are grateful for the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42177143,42277461)the Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Sichuan Province(Grant No.2020JDJQ0011).Thanks to the Chn Energy Dadu River Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd,China Three Gorges Construction Engineering Corporation,Yalong River Hydropower Development Company,Ltd,Power China Chengdu Engineering Co.,Ltd,Power China Northwest Engineering Co.,Ltd,Power China Sinohydro Bureau 7 Co.,Ltd,China Gezhouba Group No.1 Engineering Co.,Ltd.,and the 5th Engineering Co.,Ltd.of China Railway Construction Bridge Engineering Bureau Group for the support and assistance.
文摘The underground hydropower projects in Southwest China is characterized by large excavation sizes,high geostresses,complicated geological conditions and multiple construction processes.Various disasters such as collapses,large deformations,rockbursts are frequently encountered,resulting in serious casualties and huge economic losses.This review mainly presents some representative results on microseismic(MS)monitoring and forecasting for disasters in hydropower underground engineering.First,a set of new denoising,spectral analysis,and location methods were developed for better identification and location of MS signals.Then,the tempo-spatial characteristics of MS events were analyzed to understand the relationship between field construction and damages of surrounding rocks.Combined with field construction,geological data,numerical simulation and parametric analysis of MS sources,the focal mechanism of MS events was revealed.A damage constitutive model considering MS fracturing size was put forward and feedback analysis considering the MS damage of underground surrounding rocks was conducted.Next,an MS multi-parameter based risk assessment and early warning method for dynamic disasters were proposed.The technology for control of the damage and deformation of underground surrounding rocks was proposed for underground caverns.Finally,two typical underground powerhouses were selected as case studies.These achievements can provide significant references for prevention and control of dynamic disasters for underground engineering with similar complicated geological conditions.
文摘In recent years environmental and sustainability concerns have impacted the global chemical industry and instituted a rush to produce products from renewable raw materials.This dynamic,complex and turbulent organizational scenario,around themes touching on the issue of sustainable development model,was created involving a large number of different actors:chemical/petrochemical industries,agroindustry companies,oil/gas companies,brand owners and end users,biotechnology startups,governments,universities and society.This paper proposed the application of a structured and dynamic method of technological prediction for biopolymers in three levels:systematic monitoring process,relational database and the“alive”Technology Roadmapping visualization tool.The main objective is to identify strategic actions,business models,the latest´s technologies in development,as well as trends in the field of biopolymers in order to support companies on position themselves in this competitive scenario.Furthermore,companies,universities,government agencies and institutions could apply this dynamic and alive methodology to indeed access innovation opportunities,challenges and threats for different industrial segments and to provide dynamic knowledge management collaborating to their strategy including a database crossing for the all organization.
文摘The study was aimed to examine the need of incorporating traditional weather forecasting renowned indigenous knowledge system (IKS) into modern weather forecasting methods to be used for planning farming activities. In addition, not only gap that is not infused by current weather forecasting system with their advanced studies to understand why it is incorporated into existing technical frameworks was regarded, but also the limitation of advanced weather forecasting approach and strength to be elicited by indigenous knowledge system are crucial. Perspicuously, forms and onsite interrogates have been conducted to assess people’s beliefs, understanding, and attitudes on the indigenous knowledge system significance on weather forecasting. Therefore, atmospheric and biological conditions, astronomic, as well as relief characteristics were used to predict the weather over short and long periods. Usually, in assessing weather conditions, the conduct of animals and insects were listed as essential. Obviously, in order to predict weather particularly from rain within about short period of time, astronomical characteristics were used. Commonly, there are few peers who know conventional weather prediction approaches. This lowers the reliability of conventional weather prediction. The findings revealed some variables that impact meteorological inaccuracy by scientific methods and help to recognize and evaluate the gap that current meteorological technologies do not achieve and new particulars anticipated to be filled with conventional methods to attain accurate weather prediction. Additionally, the study indicated that both modern and conventional processes have certain positive and limitations, which means that they can be coupled to generate more accurate weather prediction reports for end users.
文摘A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20<sup>th</sup> century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21<sup>st</sup> century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation.
文摘In recent years, China has attached great importance to the research in the field of hydrology, and hydrological work has also made great progress. Hydrological information forecasting is the focus of hydrological work, and it has close relationship with social development and people’s life. After long-term development. More and more advanced information technology has gradually been applied in hydrological information forecasting, among which GIS has effectively improved the level of hydrological information forecasting.This paper analyzes the application of GIS in hydrological information forecasting to provide an in-depth understanding of this technology.
