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Wavelet-Based Nonstationary Wind Speed Model in Dongting Lake Cable-Stayed Bridge 被引量:3
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作者 Xuhui He Jun Fang +1 位作者 Andrew Scanlon Zhengqing Chen 《Engineering(科研)》 2010年第11期895-903,共9页
The wind-rain induced vibration phenomena in the Dongting Lake Bridge (DLB) can be observed every year, and the field measurements of wind speed data of the bridge are usually nonstationary. Nonstationary wind speed c... The wind-rain induced vibration phenomena in the Dongting Lake Bridge (DLB) can be observed every year, and the field measurements of wind speed data of the bridge are usually nonstationary. Nonstationary wind speed can be decomposed into a deterministic time-varying mean wind speed and a zero-mean stationary fluctuating wind speed component. By using wavelet transform (WT), the time-varying mean wind speed is extracted and a nonstationary wind speed model is proposed in this paper. The wind characteristics of turbulence intensity, integral scale and probability distribution of the bridge are calculated from the typical wind samples recorded by the two anemometers installed on the DLB using the proposed nonstationary wind speed model based on WT. The calculated results are compared with those calculated by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and traditional approaches. The compared results indicate that the wavelet-based nonstationary wind speed model is more reasonable and appropriate than the EMD-based nonstationary and traditional stationary models for characterizing wind speed in analysis of wind-rain-induced vibration of cables. 展开更多
关键词 TIME-VARYING Mean wind speed NONSTATIONARY wind speed model CABLE-STAYED Bridge Wavelet Transform (WT) wind Characteristic wind-Rain-Induced Vibration
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Wind speed model based on kernel density estimation and its application in reliability assessment of generating systems 被引量:16
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作者 Bo HU Yudun LI +1 位作者 Hejun YANG He WANG 《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 SCIE EI 2017年第2期220-227,共8页
An accurate probability distribution model of wind speed is critical to the assessment of reliability contribution of wind energy to power systems. Most of current models are built using the parametric density estimat... An accurate probability distribution model of wind speed is critical to the assessment of reliability contribution of wind energy to power systems. Most of current models are built using the parametric density estimation(PDE) methods, which usually assume that the wind speed are subordinate to a certain known distribution(e.g. Weibull distribution and Normal distribution) and estimate the parameters of models with the historical data. This paper presents a kernel density estimation(KDE) method which is a nonparametric way to estimate the probability density function(PDF) of wind speed. The method is a kind of data-driven approach without making any assumption on the form of the underlying wind speed distribution, and capable of uncovering the statistical information hidden in the historical data. The proposed method is compared with three parametric models using wind data from six sites.The results indicate that the KDE outperforms the PDE in terms of accuracy and flexibility in describing the longterm wind speed distributions for all sites. A sensitivity analysis with respect to kernel functions is presented and Gauss kernel function is proved to be the best one. Case studies on a standard IEEE reliability test system(IEEERTS) have verified the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability performance of wind farms. 展开更多
关键词 wind speed model Kernel density estimation Reliability evaluation wind power
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Probabilistic Model for Wind Speed Variability Encountered by a Vessel
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作者 Igor Rychlik Wengang Mao 《Natural Resources》 2014年第13期837-855,共19页
As a result of social awareness of air emission due to the use of fossil fuels, the utilization of the natural wind power resources becomes an important option to avoid the dependence on fossil resources in industrial... As a result of social awareness of air emission due to the use of fossil fuels, the utilization of the natural wind power resources becomes an important option to avoid the dependence on fossil resources in industrial activities. For example, the maritime industry, which is responsible for more than 90% of the world trade transport, has already started to look for solutions to use wind power as auxiliary propulsion for ships. The practical installation of the wind facilities often requires large amount of investment, while uncertainties for the corresponding energy gains are large. Therefore a reliable model to describe the variability of wind speeds is needed to estimate the expected available wind power, coefficient of the variation of the power and other statistics of interest, e.g. expected length of the wind conditions favorable for the wind-energy harvesting. In this paper, wind speeds are modeled by means of a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. Its dependence structure is localized by introduction of time and space dependent parameters in the field. The model has the advantage of having a relatively small number of parameters. These parameters have natural physical interpretation and are statistically fitted to represent variability of observed wind speeds in ERA Interim reanalysis data set. 展开更多
关键词 wind speedS wind-Energy SPATIO-TEMPORAL model GAUSSIAN FIELDS
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Design Wind Speed Evaluation Technique in Wind Turbine Installation Point by Using the Meteorological and CFD Models
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作者 Takanori Uchida 《Journal of Flow Control, Measurement & Visualization》 2018年第3期168-184,共17页
It is highly important in Japan to choose a good site for wind turbines, because the spatial distribution of wind speed is quite complicated over steep complex terrain. We have been developing the unsteady numerical m... It is highly important in Japan to choose a good site for wind turbines, because the spatial distribution of wind speed is quite complicated over steep complex terrain. We have been developing the unsteady numerical model called the RIAM-COMPACT (Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Computational Prediction of Airflow over Complex Terrain). The RIAM-COMPACT is based on the LES (Large-Eddy Simulation). The object domain of the RIAM-COMPACT is from several m to several km, and can predict the airflow and gas diffusion over complex terrain with high precision. In the present paper, the design wind speed evaluation technique in wind turbine installation point by using the mesoscale meteorological model and RIAM-COMPACT CFD model was proposed. The design wind speed to be used for designing WTGs can be calculated by multiplying the ratio of the mean wind speed at the hub-height to the mean upper-air wind speed at the inflow boundary, i.e., the fractional increase of the mean hub-height wind speed, by the reduction ratio, R. The fractional increase of the mean hub-height wind speed was evaluated using the CFD simulation results. This method was proposed as Approach 1 in the present paper. A value of 61.9 m/s was obtained for the final design wind speed, Uh, in Approach 1. In the evaluation procedure of the design wind speed in Approach 2, neither the above-mentioned reduction rate, R, nor an upper-air wind speed of 1.7 Vo, where Vo is the reference wind speed, was used. Instead, the value of the maximum wind speed which was obtained from the typhoon simulation for each of the investigated wind directions was adopted. When the design wind speed was evaluated using the 50-year recurrence value, the design wind speed was 48.3 m/s. When a somewhat conservative safety factor was applied, that is, when the 100 year recurrence value was used instead, the design wind speed was 52.9 m/s. 展开更多
关键词 Design wind speed Complex TERRAIN METEOROLOGICAL model CFD model
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Performance analysis of 20 Pole 1.5 KW Three Phase Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator for low Speed Vertical Axis Wind Turbine 被引量:2
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作者 Shahrukh Adnan Khan Rajprasad K. Rajkumar +1 位作者 Rajparthiban K. Rajkumar Aravind CV 《Energy and Power Engineering》 2013年第4期423-428,共6页
This paper gives performance analysis of a three phase Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) connected to a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT). Low speed wind condition (less than 5 m/s) is taken in considerati... This paper gives performance analysis of a three phase Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) connected to a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT). Low speed wind condition (less than 5 m/s) is taken in consideration and the entire simulation is carried in Matlab/Simulink environment. The rated power for the generator is fixed at 1.5 KW and number of pole at 20. It is observed under low wind speed of6 m/s, a turbine having approximately1 mof radius and2.6 mof height develops 150 Nm mechanical torque that can generate power up to 1.5 KW. The generator is designed using modeling tool and is fabricated. The fabricated generator is tested in the laboratory with the simulation result for the error analysis. The range of error is about 5%-27% for the same output power value. The limitations and possible causes for error are presented and discussed. 展开更多
关键词 Vertical Axis wind TURBINE Three Phase Multi-pole PERMANENT MAGNET SYNCHRONOUS Generator Low wind speed modeling Performance Analysis
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Analysis of Observed and Modelled Near-Surface Wind Extremes over the Sub-Arctic Northeast Pacific 被引量:1
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作者 Alexander Kislov Vladimir Platonov 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2019年第1期146-158,共13页
Wind speed extremes in the sub-Arctic realm of the North-East Pacific region were investigated through extreme value analysis of wind speed obtained from wind simulations of the COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale M... Wind speed extremes in the sub-Arctic realm of the North-East Pacific region were investigated through extreme value analysis of wind speed obtained from wind simulations of the COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, climate version) mesoscale model, as well as using observed data. The analysis showed that the set of wind speed extremes obtained from observations is a mixture of two different subsets each neatly described by the Weibull distribution. Using special metaphoric terminology, they are labelled as “Black Swans” and “Dragons”. The “Dragons” are responsible for strongest extremes. It has been shown that both reanalysis and GCM (general circulation model) data have no “Dragons”. This means that such models underestimate wind speed maxima, and the important circulation process generating the anomalies is not simulated. The COSMO-CLM data have both “Black Swans” and “Dragons”. This evidence provides a clue that an atmospheric model with a detailed spatial resolution (we used in this work the data from domain with 13.2 km spatial resolution) does reproduce the special mechanism responsible for the generation of the largest wind speed extremes. However, a more thorough analysis shows that the differences in the parameters of the cumulative distribution functions are still significant. The ratio between the modelled Dragons and Black Swans can reach up to only 10%. It is much less than 30%, which was the level established for observations. 展开更多
关键词 EXTREME wind speed ANALYSIS modelled EXTREME wind speed Arctic and SUB-ARCTIC Circulation
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An Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed over the European and Siberian Parts of Arctic Region 被引量:3
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作者 Alexander Kislov Tatyana Matveeva 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2016年第2期205-223,共19页
Multiyear observed time series of wind speed for selected points of the Arctic region (data of station network from the Kola Peninsula to the Chukotka Peninsula) are used to highlight the important peculiarities of wi... Multiyear observed time series of wind speed for selected points of the Arctic region (data of station network from the Kola Peninsula to the Chukotka Peninsula) are used to highlight the important peculiarities of wind speed extreme statistics. How largest extremes could be simulated by climate model (the INM-CM4 model data from the Historical experiment of the CMIP5) is also discussed. Extreme value analysis yielded that a volume of observed samples of wind speeds are strictly divided into two sets of variables. Statistical properties of one population are sharply different from another. Because the common statistical conditions are the sign of identity of extreme events we therefore hypothesize that two groups of extreme wind events adhere to different circulation processes. A very important message is that the procedure of selection can be realized easily based on analysis of the cumulative distribution function. The authors estimate the properties of the modelled extremes and conclude that they consist of only the samples, adhering to one group. This evidence provides a clue that atmospheric model with a coarse spatial resolution does not simulate special mechanism responsible for appearance of largest wind speed extremes. Therefore, the tasks where extreme wind is needed cannot be explicitly solved using the output of climate model. The finding that global models are unable to capture the wind extremes is already well known, but information that they are members of group with the specific statistical conditions provides new knowledge. Generally, the implemented analytical approach allows us to detect that the extreme wind speed events adhere to different statistical models. Events located above the threshold value are much more pronounced than representatives of another group (located below the threshold value) predicted by the extrapolation of law distributions in their tail. The same situation is found in different areas of science where the data referring to the same nomenclature are adhering to different statistical models. This result motivates our interest on our ability to detect, analyze, and understand such different extremes. 展开更多
关键词 Extreme wind speed Analysis Arctic Circulation modelled Extreme wind speed
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A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling 被引量:1
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作者 John Z.YIM(尹彰) +1 位作者 ChunRen CHOU(周宗仁) 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI 2001年第1期61-72,共12页
Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simu... Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made. 展开更多
关键词 Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling probability distributions extreme wind speeds
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Asymptotic Tracking Control for Wind Turbines in Variable Speed Mode 被引量:2
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作者 Wei Lin Zongtao Lu Wei Wei 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2017年第3期569-576,共8页
This paper presents a variable speed control strategy for wind turbines in order to capture maximum wind power.Wind turbines are modeled as a two-mass drive-train system with generator torque control.Based on the obta... This paper presents a variable speed control strategy for wind turbines in order to capture maximum wind power.Wind turbines are modeled as a two-mass drive-train system with generator torque control.Based on the obtained wind turbine model,variable speed control schemes are developed.Nonlinear tracking controllers are designed to achieve asymptotic tracking for a prescribed rotor speed reference signal so as to yield maximum wind power capture.Due to the difficulty of torsional angle measurement,an observer-based control scheme that uses only rotor speed information is further developed for global asymptotic output tracking.The effectiveness of the proposed control methods is illustrated by simulation results. 展开更多
关键词 Asymptotic tracking partial-state and output feedback two-mass drive-train model variable speed control wind turbines
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The Control System Simulation of Variable-Speed Constant-Frequency Wind Turbine
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作者 窦金延 曹娜 《Journal of Measurement Science and Instrumentation》 CAS 2010年第S1期202-206,共5页
In general,Variable-Speed Constant Frequency (VSCF)Wind generation system is controlled by stator voltage orientation method which based on the mathematic model of VSCF Wind generation system and discussed the control... In general,Variable-Speed Constant Frequency (VSCF)Wind generation system is controlled by stator voltage orientation method which based on the mathematic model of VSCF Wind generation system and discussed the control strategy.Present the whole dynamic control model of variable-speed wind generator system in MATLAB/ Simulink,and the simulation results confirm the validity and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. 展开更多
关键词 Variable-speed constant-frequency model wind turbines control system vector control
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Gain-scheduling control of a floating offshore wind turbine above rated wind speed 被引量:6
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作者 Omid BAGHERIEH Ryozo NAGAMUNE 《Control Theory and Technology》 EI CSCD 2015年第2期160-172,共3页
This paper presents an application of gain-scheduling(GS) control techniques to a floating offshore wind turbine on a barge platform for above rated wind speed cases. Special emphasis is placed on the dynamics variati... This paper presents an application of gain-scheduling(GS) control techniques to a floating offshore wind turbine on a barge platform for above rated wind speed cases. Special emphasis is placed on the dynamics variation of the wind turbine system caused by plant nonlinearity with respect to wind speed. The turbine system with the dynamics variation is represented by a linear parameter-varying(LPV) model, which is derived by interpolating linearized models at various operating wind speeds. To achieve control objectives of regulating power capture and minimizing platform motions, both linear quadratic regulator(LQR) GS and LPV GS controller design techniques are explored. The designed controllers are evaluated in simulations with the NREL 5 MW wind turbine model, and compared with the baseline proportional-integral(PI) GS controller and non-GS controllers. The simulation results demonstrate the performance superiority of LQR GS and LPV GS controllers, as well as the performance trade-off between power regulation and platform movement reduction. 展开更多
关键词 wind energy gain-scheduling control linear parameter-varying model floating offshore wind turbines above rated wind speed POWER
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基于变分模态分解和序列到序列模型的海上航标风速短期预测
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作者 季克淮 杜牧远 及春宁 《水道港口》 2026年第1期68-76,共9页
完整而准确的风速预测对于沿海地区的人类活动十分重要,然而通过采集获取的原始海上航标风速数据集通常存在噪音和复杂性较高等问题。文章提出了基于变分模态分解(VMD)、龙格库塔优化算法(RUN)和带有注意力机制的序列到序列模型(Seq2Seq... 完整而准确的风速预测对于沿海地区的人类活动十分重要,然而通过采集获取的原始海上航标风速数据集通常存在噪音和复杂性较高等问题。文章提出了基于变分模态分解(VMD)、龙格库塔优化算法(RUN)和带有注意力机制的序列到序列模型(Seq2Seq-Attention)的系统方法对海上航标风速数据进行短期预测。以塘沽测站的海上航标风速数据为基础,提出了建立在VMD和斯皮尔曼相关系数基础上的适应度函数来优化VMD的分解模态数K和惩罚因子α,并通过对不同的固有模态函数(IMF)选取比例进行对比分析。结果表明:在选取比例为43.6%时,VMD分解后的IMFs和信号可以同时兼顾原始数据信息的保留和噪声的去除。通过比较三种方法1~8 h的风速多步预测的性能。对比发现:VMD-RUN方法在不同时间步长的多步预测中均取得了最好的预测精度和性能,所有时间步长的预测结果的相关系数均高于0.9。文章所提出的VMD-RUN海上航标风速预测框架优于其他比较方法,可以有效实现原始风速数据的降噪,并实现较为准确的风速短期预测。 展开更多
关键词 变分模态分解 龙格库塔优化算法 海上航标 风速预测 LSTM 序列到序列模型
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Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation 被引量:2
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作者 GUO Yunxia HOU Yijun QI Peng 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第6期1994-2013,共20页
As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large ... As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis.By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI),typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen.We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons.In addition,the Yah Meng(YM)wind field model was introduced,and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed.Using the YM wind field model,extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons.The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design. 展开更多
关键词 TYPHOON HAZARD ANALYSIS Monte-Carlo simulation wind field model EXTREME wind speed
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基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测
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作者 张楠 朱永奇 +2 位作者 郑创 孙娜 薛小明 《太阳能学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期645-653,共9页
针对风速具有不稳定性和间歇性等特点,提出一种混合风速预测模型,该模型集成卷积神经网络(CNN)、最小门控存储网络(MGM)、鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)和时变滤波器经验模式分解(TVFEMD)。首先采用TVFEMD对原始风速序列进行分解,获得若干子序列;... 针对风速具有不稳定性和间歇性等特点,提出一种混合风速预测模型,该模型集成卷积神经网络(CNN)、最小门控存储网络(MGM)、鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)和时变滤波器经验模式分解(TVFEMD)。首先采用TVFEMD对原始风速序列进行分解,获得若干子序列;随后基于样本熵对分量复杂度进行评估,并对复杂度最高的分量实施TVFEMD二次分解。最后,将得到的各子序列输入混合预测模型进行建模与预测,从而获得对应的子序列预测结果,进而得出最终预测结果。实验结果表明,与其他模型对比,所提模型的平均绝对误差下降2.3%~8.6%,并在不同数据集中得到验证,这证明了混合模型在预测中的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 风速预测 最小门控存储网络 变分模态分解 混合预测模型 鲸鱼优化算法
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Impact of Wind Energy System Integration on the Al-Zawiya Refinery Electric Grid in Libya
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作者 Akram Gawedar R. Ramakumar 《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 2016年第9期11-20,共10页
Libya is an oil exporting country located in the middle of the North Africa. Exporting oil is the major income resource for the economics of the country. Al-Zawea refinery is one of the oil refineries in Libya. It is ... Libya is an oil exporting country located in the middle of the North Africa. Exporting oil is the major income resource for the economics of the country. Al-Zawea refinery is one of the oil refineries in Libya. It is the largest refinery in the region. The refinery located in the Mediterranean coast. Electricity is the main sector in the refinery to produce and export oil. This paper discusses the possibility of the penetration of the renewable energy (wind) generated electricity into the refinery power system. Although, renewable energy application in Libya was started in the middle of the seventies, it has still not found its way into industry sector. This study proposes the possible impacts of renewable (wind) energy system integration on the Al-Zawea refinery electric grid to satisfy the refinery load demand. 展开更多
关键词 Libya Renewable Energy wind speed Al-Zawea Refinery Weibull model Smart Grid Distributed Generation
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基于平稳与非平稳模型的台风湍流风场参数特征研究 被引量:1
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作者 蔡康 黄铭枫 +4 位作者 王彦博 倪一清 陈栢纬 杨红龙 王立忠 《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第5期1291-1300,共10页
非平稳风速模型下,有多种方法可用于确定非平稳风速时程的时变均值,如小波变换和经验模态分解。针对相同的风速样本,这些方法会产生不同的脉动风分量,进而导致相关的脉动风参数(例如,湍流强度、湍流积分尺度和湍流风谱)存在显著差异。... 非平稳风速模型下,有多种方法可用于确定非平稳风速时程的时变均值,如小波变换和经验模态分解。针对相同的风速样本,这些方法会产生不同的脉动风分量,进而导致相关的脉动风参数(例如,湍流强度、湍流积分尺度和湍流风谱)存在显著差异。本文建立了平稳与非平稳风速模型统计参数的量化映射关系。通过理论推导获得:①湍流强度关联方程I_(u_(s)(t))^(2)≌I_(U(t))^(2)+I_(u_(n)(t))^(2),证明了非平稳模型湍流强度较平稳模型更低;②湍流积分尺度能量守恒准则σ_(H)^(2)L_(H)+σ_(u_(n))^(2)L_(u_(n))≌σ_(u_(s)^(2))L_(u_(s));③功率谱密度叠加定理S_(u_(s))(f)=S_(H)(f)+S_(u_(n))(f),揭示了非平稳模型在0~0.01 Hz频段脉动分量的能量密度显著降低。基于2023年8月31日—9月2日台风“苏拉”期间深圳气象梯度塔实测的风速数据,验证了所得出的理论关系的准确性。本研究为台风非平稳风场建模提供了可量化的参数转换框架。 展开更多
关键词 非平稳风速模型 湍流强度 湍流积分尺度 风谱
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超强台风“杜苏芮”风速概率建模与分析
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作者 李杰 杨昕 彭勇波 《土木工程学报》 北大核心 2025年第8期1-10,共10页
相较于良态风,台风风场具有更为丰富的空间结构和复杂的时空演化特征。基于现象学的传统建模方法,难以准确表征台风风场的概率密度演化规律,制约工程结构抗风可靠度的评估。文章以超强台风“杜苏芮”的全过程观测资料为基础,结合物理随... 相较于良态风,台风风场具有更为丰富的空间结构和复杂的时空演化特征。基于现象学的传统建模方法,难以准确表征台风风场的概率密度演化规律,制约工程结构抗风可靠度的评估。文章以超强台风“杜苏芮”的全过程观测资料为基础,结合物理随机过程描述与湍流动力学原理,根据能谱动力学方程和相似性原理推导台风风速随机Fourier波数谱和对数律模型,构建了统一的近地台风风场物理模型。采用基于样本集合数值特征的识别原则,标定了模型中基本随机变量的概率分布。通过对摩擦速度、地面粗糙度和分界波数等基本随机变量的概率密度演化表述,实现基于物理机制的台风脉动风谱和平均风剖面的定量建模。对“杜苏芮”台风3个阶段以及良态风观测数据的对比表明:物理随机模型能有效捕捉不同风况下的脉动风速和平均风剖面的概率结构,且可以反映台风脉动风速随机过程的非高斯与非平稳性质。这一研究进展为风敏感结构的随机响应分析和可靠度评价提供了参考。 展开更多
关键词 台风“杜苏芮”脉动风速 概率结构 平均风剖面 物理随机模型 风场实测
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光伏组件温度分布及其功率预测模型研究 被引量:2
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作者 冯钰贻 曾弋凡 +4 位作者 丁慕琛 顾欣宇 王子轩 李英峰 李美成 《太阳能学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期383-390,共8页
为解决不断发展的大规模光伏发电接入电网后带来的调度问题,该文基于流体力学与热力学理论,提出一种用于预测光伏组件温度分布及其功率的模型。与传统的基于大数据与神经网络预测组件表面平均温度的方法相比,该模型一方面不依赖于历史... 为解决不断发展的大规模光伏发电接入电网后带来的调度问题,该文基于流体力学与热力学理论,提出一种用于预测光伏组件温度分布及其功率的模型。与传统的基于大数据与神经网络预测组件表面平均温度的方法相比,该模型一方面不依赖于历史测量数据,缺少相关数据也不妨碍其高精度的预测;另一方面可预测光伏组件表面的温度分布,并据此预测功率,具有更高的预测准确度。 展开更多
关键词 太阳能 太阳电池 光伏组件 风速 温度分布 预测模型
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改进SSA优化LSTM-KF旋翼式无人机风速预测 被引量:1
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作者 黄家煌 李斌 +1 位作者 常青 王耀力 《电光与控制》 北大核心 2025年第10期104-109,114,共7页
为了提高旋翼式无人机对风速和风向的预测精度,提出了一种优化长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络的多策略改进麻雀搜索算法(MISSA)与卡尔曼滤波(KF)相结合的预测模型。首先,根据无人机动力学模型选取与风场相关的数据,作为LSTM神经网络的输入分... 为了提高旋翼式无人机对风速和风向的预测精度,提出了一种优化长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络的多策略改进麻雀搜索算法(MISSA)与卡尔曼滤波(KF)相结合的预测模型。首先,根据无人机动力学模型选取与风场相关的数据,作为LSTM神经网络的输入分量。然后,通过佳点集、黄金正弦、灰狼等级制度及平滑开发变异策略改进SSA,提高了传统SSA在神经网络中对学习率和正则化参数的寻优能力。接着,将优化好的风速预测网络与KF更新方程结合,修正了预测的结果。结果表明,在MISSA-LSTM-KF预测网络中,对风速预测的RMSE和MAE分别为0.492 m/s和0.370 m/s,风向预测的RMSE和MAE分别是9.415°和6.613°,相较于SSA-RF、SSA-CNN和SSA-LSTM预测网络的误差明显减少。 展开更多
关键词 无人机 动力学模型 风速预测 麻雀搜索算法 长短期记忆神经网络 卡尔曼滤波
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基于台风“山竹”的Yan Meng风场模型数值模拟适用性研究 被引量:1
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作者 孙建鹏 阴照滨 +2 位作者 尹鹏 马萧岗 黄文锋 《西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第2期174-180,共7页
近年来珠海地区风致灾害损失呈上升趋势,需要对该地区进行科学的极值风速预测,然而珠海地区的风场模型适用性尚不明确.为解决此问题,以台风“山竹”作为典型台风案例,探究Yan Meng风场数值模型在珠海地区风场数值模拟工作中的适用性,并... 近年来珠海地区风致灾害损失呈上升趋势,需要对该地区进行科学的极值风速预测,然而珠海地区的风场模型适用性尚不明确.为解决此问题,以台风“山竹”作为典型台风案例,探究Yan Meng风场数值模型在珠海地区风场数值模拟工作中的适用性,并对模型当中的两个关键参数进行了敏感性分析.结果表明,等效粗糙长度z_(0)和压力分布常数B与风场模型解析风速之间均存在明显的负相关关系,Yan Meng风场数值模型计算结果与当地气象站观测数据相符,该模型适用于珠海地区风场数值模拟工作,并建议珠海地区在风场数值模拟中等效粗糙长度取值0.3m、压力分布常数B取值1.0~1.2.通过研究,希望为珠海地区的工程抗风设计和台风危险性分析等提供科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 风场模型 敏感性分析 等效粗糙长度 极值风速
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