Wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the integration of wind energy into the grid by predicting wind patterns and energy output.This enhances the efficiency and reliability of renewable energy sys...Wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the integration of wind energy into the grid by predicting wind patterns and energy output.This enhances the efficiency and reliability of renewable energy systems.Forecasting approaches inform energy management strategies,reduce reliance on fossil fuels,and support the broader transition to sustainable energy solutions.The primary goal of this study is to introduce an effective methodology for estimating wind power through temporal data analysis.This research advances an optimized Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model using recently proposedmetaheuristic optimization algorithms,namely the FireHawk Optimizer(FHO)and the Non-Monopolize Search(NO).A modified version of FHO,termed FHONO,is developed by integrating NO as a local search mechanism to enhance the exploration capability and address the shortcomings of the original FHO.The developed FHONO is then employed to optimize the MLP for enhanced wind power prediction.The effectiveness of the proposed FHONO-MLP model is validated using renowned datasets from wind turbines in France.The results of the comparative analysis between FHONO-MLP,conventionalMLP,and other optimized versions of MLP show that FHONO-MLP outperforms the others,achieving an average RootMean Square Error(RMSE)of 0.105,Mean Absolute Error(MAE)of 0.082,and Coefficient of Determination(R^(2))of 0.967 across all datasets.These findings underscore the significant enhancement in predictive accuracy provided by FHONO and demonstrate its effectiveness in improving wind power forecasting.展开更多
The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward...The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward-looking information of key wind farms in a cluster under different weather conditions is an effective method to improve the accuracy of ultrashort-term cluster power forecasting.To this end,this paper proposes a refined modeling method for ultrashort-term wind power cluster forecasting based on a convergent cross-mapping algorithm.From the perspective of causality,key meteorological forecasting factors under different cluster power fluctuation processes were screened,and refined training modeling was performed for different fluctuation processes.First,a wind process description index system and classification model at the wind power cluster level are established to realize the classification of typical fluctuation processes.A meteorological-cluster power causal relationship evaluation model based on the convergent cross-mapping algorithm is pro-posed to screen meteorological forecasting factors under multiple types of typical fluctuation processes.Finally,a refined modeling meth-od for a variety of different typical fluctuation processes is proposed,and the strong causal meteorological forecasting factors of each scenario are used as inputs to realize high-precision modeling and forecasting of ultra-short-term wind cluster power.An example anal-ysis shows that the short-term wind power cluster power forecasting accuracy of the proposed method can reach 88.55%,which is 1.57-7.32%higher than that of traditional methods.展开更多
Accurate prediction of wind energy plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and supporting the broader shift toward renewable energy systems.Nevertheless,the inherently variable nature of wind and the intricac...Accurate prediction of wind energy plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and supporting the broader shift toward renewable energy systems.Nevertheless,the inherently variable nature of wind and the intricacy of high-dimensional datasets pose major obstacles to reliable forecasting.To address these difficulties,this study presents an innovative hybrid method for short-term wind power prediction by combining a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network with a Single Candidate Optimizer(SCO)algorithm.In contrast to conventional techniques that rely on random parameter initialization,the proposed LSTM-SCO framework leverages the distinctive capability of SCO to work with a single candidate solution,thereby substantially reducing the computational overhead compared to traditional population-based metaheuristics.The performance of the model was benchmarked against various classical and deep learning models across datasets from three geographically diverse sites,using multiple evaluation metrics.Experimental findings demonstrate that the SCO-optimized model enhances prediction accuracy by up to 12.5%over standard LSTM implementations.展开更多
Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article...Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.展开更多
Wind power generation is among the most promising and eco-friendly energy sources today. Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is essential for boosting energy efficiency and maintaining the operational stability of power grid...Wind power generation is among the most promising and eco-friendly energy sources today. Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is essential for boosting energy efficiency and maintaining the operational stability of power grids. However, predicting wind power comes with significant challenges, such as weather uncertainties, wind variability, complex terrain, limited data, insufficient measurement infrastructure, intricate interdependencies, and short lead times. These factors make it difficult to accurately forecast wind behavior and respond to sudden power output changes. This study aims to precisely forecast electricity generation from wind turbines, minimize grid operation uncertainties, and enhance grid reliability. It leverages historical wind farm data and Numerical Weather Prediction data, using k-Nearest Neighbors for pre-processing, K-means clustering for categorization, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for training and testing, with model performance evaluated across multiple metrics. The Grey Wolf Optimized (GWO) LSTM classification technique, a deep learning model suited to time series analysis, effectively handles temporal dependencies in input data through memory cells and gradient-based optimization. Inspired by grey wolves’ hunting strategies, GWO is a population-based metaheuristic optimization algorithm known for its strong performance across diverse optimization tasks. The proposed Grey Wolf Optimized Deep Learning model achieves an R-squared value of 0.97279, demonstrating that it explains 97.28% of the variance in wind power data. This model surpasses a reference study that achieved an R-squared value of 0.92 with a hybrid deep learning approach but did not account for outliers or anomalous data.展开更多
According to the demand for weather forecast at the venues of the 14 th National Winter Games,based on the data of the fine grid model of the European Centre(EC)and RMAPS model,as well as the real-time observation dat...According to the demand for weather forecast at the venues of the 14 th National Winter Games,based on the data of the fine grid model of the European Centre(EC)and RMAPS model,as well as the real-time observation data of the competition fields,a dynamic optimal correction method was proposed to improve the accuracy rate of temperature and wind speed prediction.Through techniques such as deviation correction and univariate linear regression,mathematical models applicable to different competition regions were constructed,and the effective correction of objective forecast products within 0-120 h were realized.The results show that this method significantly improved the accuracy rate of the prediction of temperature,wind speed and extreme wind speed,and the effect was more obvious especially when the model performance was unstable.Meanwhile,terrain and climate background had a significant impact on the correction effect.This study provides new technical support for mountain meteorological forecast.展开更多
In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle ...In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle position,and actual power,lagged features were generated to capture temporal dependencies.Among 24 evaluated models,the ensemble bagging approach achieved the best performance,with R^(2) values of 0.89 at 0 min and 0.75 at 60 min.Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis revealed that while wind speed is the primary driver for short-term predictions,air temperature and nacelle position become more influential at longer forecasting horizons.These findings underscore the reliability of short-term predictions and the potential benefits of integrating hybrid AI and probabilistic models for extended forecasts.Our work contributes a robust and explainable framework to support Sri Lanka’s renewable energy transition,and future research will focus on real-time deployment and uncertainty quantification.展开更多
Wind energy is one of the most promising electricity generating sources as a clean and free alternate compared with the conventional power plants and due to the volatility feature in the wind speeds it will reflect so...Wind energy is one of the most promising electricity generating sources as a clean and free alternate compared with the conventional power plants and due to the volatility feature in the wind speeds it will reflect some problems in power systems reliability particularly if the system is deeply penetrated by wind farms. Therefore, wind power forecasting issue become and is still an important scope that will help in ED （economic dispatch）, UC （unit commitment） purposes to get more reliable and economic systems. This paper introduces short term wind power forecasting model, based on ARIMA （autoregressive integrated moving average） which will be applied to hourly wind data from Zaafarana 5 project in Egypt. The proposed model successfully outperforms the persistence model with significant improvement up to 6 h ahead.展开更多
To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the s...To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.展开更多
Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid.Aiming to provide refere...Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid.Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications,this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning,enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling.Usually,wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state,which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure,temperature,roughness,and obstacles.As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction,deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design,such as adding noise to outputs,evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights,optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting.The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness,instantaneity and seasonal characteristics.展开更多
Wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm management and plays an important role in grid integration. Wind speed is volatile in nature and therefore it is difficult to predict with a single model. In...Wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm management and plays an important role in grid integration. Wind speed is volatile in nature and therefore it is difficult to predict with a single model. In this study, three hybrid multi-step wind speed forecasting models are developed and compared — with each other and with earlier proposed wind speed forecasting models. The three models are based on wavelet decomposition(WD), the Cuckoo search(CS) optimization algorithm, and a wavelet neural network(WNN). They are referred to as CS-WD-ANN(artificial neural network), CS-WNN, and CS-WD-WNN, respectively. Wind speed data from two wind farms located in Shandong, eastern China, are used in this study. The simulation result indicates that CS-WD-WNN outperforms the other two models, with minimum statistical errors. Comparison with earlier models shows that CS-WD-WNN still performs best, with the smallest statistical errors. The employment of the CS optimization algorithm in the models shows improvement compared with the earlier models.展开更多
Wind speed forecasting is important for wind energy forecasting.In the modern era,the increase in energy demand can be managed effectively by fore-casting the wind speed accurately.The main objective of this research ...Wind speed forecasting is important for wind energy forecasting.In the modern era,the increase in energy demand can be managed effectively by fore-casting the wind speed accurately.The main objective of this research is to improve the performance of wind speed forecasting by handling uncertainty,the curse of dimensionality,overfitting and non-linearity issues.The curse of dimensionality and overfitting issues are handled by using Boruta feature selec-tion.The uncertainty and the non-linearity issues are addressed by using the deep learning based Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(Bi-LSTM).In this paper,Bi-LSTM with Boruta feature selection named BFS-Bi-LSTM is proposed to improve the performance of wind speed forecasting.The model identifies relevant features for wind speed forecasting from the meteorological features using Boruta wrapper feature selection(BFS).Followed by Bi-LSTM predicts the wind speed by considering the wind speed from the past and future time steps.The proposed BFS-Bi-LSTM model is compared against Multilayer perceptron(MLP),MLP with Boruta(BFS-MLP),Long Short Term Memory(LSTM),LSTM with Boruta(BFS-LSTM)and Bi-LSTM in terms of Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),Mean Square Error(MSE)and R2.The BFS-Bi-LSTM surpassed other models by producing RMSE of 0.784,MAE of 0.530,MSE of 0.615 and R2 of 0.8766.The experimental result shows that the BFS-Bi-LSTM produced better forecasting results compared to others.展开更多
Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely h...Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely highly on weather and atmospheric conditions.In microgrids,smart energy management systems,such as integrated demand response programs,are permanently established on a step-ahead basis,which means that accu-rate forecasting of wind speed and solar irradiance intervals is becoming increasingly crucial to the optimal operation and planning of microgrids.With this in mind,a novel“bidirectional long short-term memory network”(Bi-LSTM)-based,deep stacked,sequence-to-sequence autoencoder(S2SAE)forecasting model for predicting short-term solar irradiation and wind speed was developed and evaluated in MATLAB.To create a deep stacked S2SAE prediction model,a deep Bi-LSTM-based encoder and decoder are stacked on top of one another to reduce the dimension of the input sequence,extract its features,and then reconstruct it to produce the forecasts.Hyperparameters of the proposed deep stacked S2SAE forecasting model were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the proposed Bi-LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model was compared to three other deep,and shallow stacked S2SAEs,i.e.,the LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model,gated recurrent unit-based deep stacked S2SAE model,and Bi-LSTM-based shallow stacked S2SAE model.All these models were also optimized and modeled in MATLAB.The results simulated based on actual data confirmed that the proposed model outperformed the alternatives by achieving an accuracy of up to 99.7%,which evidenced the high reliability of the proposed forecasting.展开更多
The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to ...The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to improve power quality and assure real-time power grid scheduling and grid-connected wind farm operation.Inferred statistics are utilized in this research to infer general features based on the selected information,confirming that there are differences between two forecasting categories:Forecast Category 1(0-11 h ahead)and Forecast Category 2(12-23 h ahead).In z-tests,the null hypothesis provides the corresponding quantitative findings.To verify the final performance of the prediction findings,five benchmark methodologies are used:Persistence model,LMNN(Multilayer Perceptron with LMlearningmethods),NARX(Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural networkmodel),LMRNN(RNNs with LM training methods)and LSTM(Long short-term memory neural network).Experiments using a real dataset show that the LSTM network has the highest forecasting accuracy when compared to other benchmark approaches including persistence model,LMNN,NARX network,and LMRNN,and the 23-steps forecasting accuracy has improved by 19.61%.展开更多
Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series...Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.展开更多
The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm（GA） with singular spectrum analysis（SSA） for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South Ch...The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm（GA） with singular spectrum analysis（SSA） for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea（SCS） with scatterometer observations.Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind,the SSA is applied to reduce the noise.The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique.The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error.The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days（longer for some point station） in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model.This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin.展开更多
Wind direction forecasting plays an important role in wind power prediction and air pollution management. Weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed are linear variables in which traditional...Wind direction forecasting plays an important role in wind power prediction and air pollution management. Weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed are linear variables in which traditional model output statistics and bias correction methods are applied. However, wind direction is an angular variable; therefore, such traditional methods are ineffective for its evaluation. This paper proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasting of turbine height from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a circular-circular regression approach. The technique is applied to a 24-h forecast of 65-m wind directions observed at Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province, China, which consistently yields improvements in forecast performance parameters such as smaller absolute mean error and stronger similarity in wind rose diagram pattern.展开更多
As wind and photovoltaic energy become more prevalent,the optimization of power systems is becoming increasingly crucial.The current state of research in renewable generation and power forecasting technology,such as w...As wind and photovoltaic energy become more prevalent,the optimization of power systems is becoming increasingly crucial.The current state of research in renewable generation and power forecasting technology,such as wind and photovoltaic power(PV),is described in this paper,with a focus on the ensemble sequential LSTMs approach with optimized hidden-layers topology for short-term multivariable wind power forecasting.The methods for forecasting wind power and PV production.The physical model,statistical learningmethod,andmachine learning approaches based on historical data are all evaluated for the forecasting of wind power and PV production.Moreover,the experiments demonstrated that cloud map identification has a significant impact on PV generation.With a focus on the impact of photovoltaic and wind power generation systems on power grid operation and its causes,this paper summarizes the classification of wind power and PV generation systems,as well as the benefits and drawbacks of PV systems and wind power forecasting methods based on various typologies and analysis methods.展开更多
The exploitation of wind energy is rapidly evolving and is manifested in the ever-expanding global network of offshore wind energy farms.For the Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean Sea(CS),harnessing this ...The exploitation of wind energy is rapidly evolving and is manifested in the ever-expanding global network of offshore wind energy farms.For the Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean Sea(CS),harnessing this mature technology is an important first step in the transition away from fossil fuels.This paper uses buoy and satellite observations of surface wind speed in the CS to estimate wind energy resources over the 2009–201911-year period and initiates hour-ahead forecasting using the long short-term memory(LSTM)network.Observations of wind power density(WPD)at the 100-m height showed a mean of approximately 1000 W/m^(2) in the Colombia Basin,though this value decreases radially to 600–800 W/m^(2) in the central CS to a minimum of approximately 250 W/m^(2) at its borders in the Venezuela Basin.The Caribbean Low-Level Jet(CLLJ)is also responsible for the waxing and waning of surface wind speed and as such,resource stability,though stable as estimated through monthly and seasonal coefficients of variation,is naturally governed by CLLJ activity.Using a commercially available offshore wind turbine,wind energy generation at four locations in the CS is estimated.Electricity production is greatest and most stable in the central CS than at either its eastern or western borders.Wind speed forecasts are also found to be more accurate at this location,and though technology currently restricts offshore wind turbines to shallow water,outward migration to and colonization of deeper water is an attractive option for energy exploitation.展开更多
The Pearl River Estuary(PRE)is one of China’s busiest shipping hubs and fishery production centers,as well as a region with abundant island tourism and wind energy resources,which calls for accurate short-term wind f...The Pearl River Estuary(PRE)is one of China’s busiest shipping hubs and fishery production centers,as well as a region with abundant island tourism and wind energy resources,which calls for accurate short-term wind forecasts.First,this study evaluated three operational numerical models,i.e.,ECMWF-EC,NCEP-GFS,and CMA-GD,for their ability to predict short-term wind speed over the PRE against in-situ observations during 2018-2021.Overall,ECMWF-EC out-performs other models with an average RMSE of 2.24 m s^(-1)and R of 0.57,but the NCEP-GFS performs better in the case of strong winds.Then,various bias correction and multi-model ensemble(MME)methods are used to perform the deterministic post-processing using a local and lead-specific scheme.Two-factor model output statistics(MOS2)is the optimal bias correction method for reducing(increasing)the overall RMSE(R)to 1.62(0.70)m s^(-1),demonstrating the benefits of considering both initial and lead-specific information.Intercomparison of MME results reveals that Multiple linear regression(MLR)presents superior skills,followed by random forest(RF),but it is slightly inferior to MOS2,particularly for the first few forecasting hours.Furthermore,the incorporation of additional features in MLR reduces the overall RMSE to 1.53 m s^(-1)and increases R to 0.74.Similarly,RF presents comparable results,and both outperform MOS2 in terms of correcting their deficiencies at the first few lead hours and limiting the error growth rate.Despite the satisfactory skill of deterministic post-processing techniques,they are unable to achieve a balanced performance between mean and extreme statistics.This highlights the necessity for further development of probabilistic forecasts.展开更多
基金the Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research at University of Bisha,Saudi Arabia for funding this research work through the Promising Program under Grant Number(UB-Promising-42-1445).
文摘Wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the integration of wind energy into the grid by predicting wind patterns and energy output.This enhances the efficiency and reliability of renewable energy systems.Forecasting approaches inform energy management strategies,reduce reliance on fossil fuels,and support the broader transition to sustainable energy solutions.The primary goal of this study is to introduce an effective methodology for estimating wind power through temporal data analysis.This research advances an optimized Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model using recently proposedmetaheuristic optimization algorithms,namely the FireHawk Optimizer(FHO)and the Non-Monopolize Search(NO).A modified version of FHO,termed FHONO,is developed by integrating NO as a local search mechanism to enhance the exploration capability and address the shortcomings of the original FHO.The developed FHONO is then employed to optimize the MLP for enhanced wind power prediction.The effectiveness of the proposed FHONO-MLP model is validated using renowned datasets from wind turbines in France.The results of the comparative analysis between FHONO-MLP,conventionalMLP,and other optimized versions of MLP show that FHONO-MLP outperforms the others,achieving an average RootMean Square Error(RMSE)of 0.105,Mean Absolute Error(MAE)of 0.082,and Coefficient of Determination(R^(2))of 0.967 across all datasets.These findings underscore the significant enhancement in predictive accuracy provided by FHONO and demonstrate its effectiveness in improving wind power forecasting.
基金funded by the State Grid Science and Technology Project“Research on Key Technologies for Prediction and Early Warning of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power Ramp Events Based on Meteorological Data Enhancement”(4000-202318098A-1-1-ZN).
文摘The development of wind power clusters has scaled in terms of both scale and coverage,and the impact of weather fluctuations on cluster output changes has become increasingly complex.Accurately identifying the forward-looking information of key wind farms in a cluster under different weather conditions is an effective method to improve the accuracy of ultrashort-term cluster power forecasting.To this end,this paper proposes a refined modeling method for ultrashort-term wind power cluster forecasting based on a convergent cross-mapping algorithm.From the perspective of causality,key meteorological forecasting factors under different cluster power fluctuation processes were screened,and refined training modeling was performed for different fluctuation processes.First,a wind process description index system and classification model at the wind power cluster level are established to realize the classification of typical fluctuation processes.A meteorological-cluster power causal relationship evaluation model based on the convergent cross-mapping algorithm is pro-posed to screen meteorological forecasting factors under multiple types of typical fluctuation processes.Finally,a refined modeling meth-od for a variety of different typical fluctuation processes is proposed,and the strong causal meteorological forecasting factors of each scenario are used as inputs to realize high-precision modeling and forecasting of ultra-short-term wind cluster power.An example anal-ysis shows that the short-term wind power cluster power forecasting accuracy of the proposed method can reach 88.55%,which is 1.57-7.32%higher than that of traditional methods.
文摘Accurate prediction of wind energy plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and supporting the broader shift toward renewable energy systems.Nevertheless,the inherently variable nature of wind and the intricacy of high-dimensional datasets pose major obstacles to reliable forecasting.To address these difficulties,this study presents an innovative hybrid method for short-term wind power prediction by combining a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network with a Single Candidate Optimizer(SCO)algorithm.In contrast to conventional techniques that rely on random parameter initialization,the proposed LSTM-SCO framework leverages the distinctive capability of SCO to work with a single candidate solution,thereby substantially reducing the computational overhead compared to traditional population-based metaheuristics.The performance of the model was benchmarked against various classical and deep learning models across datasets from three geographically diverse sites,using multiple evaluation metrics.Experimental findings demonstrate that the SCO-optimized model enhances prediction accuracy by up to 12.5%over standard LSTM implementations.
文摘Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.
文摘Wind power generation is among the most promising and eco-friendly energy sources today. Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is essential for boosting energy efficiency and maintaining the operational stability of power grids. However, predicting wind power comes with significant challenges, such as weather uncertainties, wind variability, complex terrain, limited data, insufficient measurement infrastructure, intricate interdependencies, and short lead times. These factors make it difficult to accurately forecast wind behavior and respond to sudden power output changes. This study aims to precisely forecast electricity generation from wind turbines, minimize grid operation uncertainties, and enhance grid reliability. It leverages historical wind farm data and Numerical Weather Prediction data, using k-Nearest Neighbors for pre-processing, K-means clustering for categorization, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for training and testing, with model performance evaluated across multiple metrics. The Grey Wolf Optimized (GWO) LSTM classification technique, a deep learning model suited to time series analysis, effectively handles temporal dependencies in input data through memory cells and gradient-based optimization. Inspired by grey wolves’ hunting strategies, GWO is a population-based metaheuristic optimization algorithm known for its strong performance across diverse optimization tasks. The proposed Grey Wolf Optimized Deep Learning model achieves an R-squared value of 0.97279, demonstrating that it explains 97.28% of the variance in wind power data. This model surpasses a reference study that achieved an R-squared value of 0.92 with a hybrid deep learning approach but did not account for outliers or anomalous data.
文摘According to the demand for weather forecast at the venues of the 14 th National Winter Games,based on the data of the fine grid model of the European Centre(EC)and RMAPS model,as well as the real-time observation data of the competition fields,a dynamic optimal correction method was proposed to improve the accuracy rate of temperature and wind speed prediction.Through techniques such as deviation correction and univariate linear regression,mathematical models applicable to different competition regions were constructed,and the effective correction of objective forecast products within 0-120 h were realized.The results show that this method significantly improved the accuracy rate of the prediction of temperature,wind speed and extreme wind speed,and the effect was more obvious especially when the model performance was unstable.Meanwhile,terrain and climate background had a significant impact on the correction effect.This study provides new technical support for mountain meteorological forecast.
文摘In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle position,and actual power,lagged features were generated to capture temporal dependencies.Among 24 evaluated models,the ensemble bagging approach achieved the best performance,with R^(2) values of 0.89 at 0 min and 0.75 at 60 min.Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis revealed that while wind speed is the primary driver for short-term predictions,air temperature and nacelle position become more influential at longer forecasting horizons.These findings underscore the reliability of short-term predictions and the potential benefits of integrating hybrid AI and probabilistic models for extended forecasts.Our work contributes a robust and explainable framework to support Sri Lanka’s renewable energy transition,and future research will focus on real-time deployment and uncertainty quantification.
文摘Wind energy is one of the most promising electricity generating sources as a clean and free alternate compared with the conventional power plants and due to the volatility feature in the wind speeds it will reflect some problems in power systems reliability particularly if the system is deeply penetrated by wind farms. Therefore, wind power forecasting issue become and is still an important scope that will help in ED （economic dispatch）, UC （unit commitment） purposes to get more reliable and economic systems. This paper introduces short term wind power forecasting model, based on ARIMA （autoregressive integrated moving average） which will be applied to hourly wind data from Zaafarana 5 project in Egypt. The proposed model successfully outperforms the persistence model with significant improvement up to 6 h ahead.
基金Project(2006BAC07B03) supported by the National Key Technology R & D Program of ChinaProject(2006G040-A) supported by the Foundation of the Science and Technology Section of Ministry of RailwayProject(2008yb044) supported by the Foundation of Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Central South University
文摘To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.61806087,61902158)Jiangsu Province Natural Science Research Projects(No.17KJB470002)+1 种基金Natural science youth fund of Jiangsu province(No.BK20150471)Jiangsu University of Science and Technology Youth Science and Technology Polytechnic Innovation Project(No.1132931804)。
文摘Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid.Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications,this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning,enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling.Usually,wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state,which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure,temperature,roughness,and obstacles.As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction,deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design,such as adding noise to outputs,evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights,optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting.The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness,instantaneity and seasonal characteristics.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number2017YFA0604500]
文摘Wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm management and plays an important role in grid integration. Wind speed is volatile in nature and therefore it is difficult to predict with a single model. In this study, three hybrid multi-step wind speed forecasting models are developed and compared — with each other and with earlier proposed wind speed forecasting models. The three models are based on wavelet decomposition(WD), the Cuckoo search(CS) optimization algorithm, and a wavelet neural network(WNN). They are referred to as CS-WD-ANN(artificial neural network), CS-WNN, and CS-WD-WNN, respectively. Wind speed data from two wind farms located in Shandong, eastern China, are used in this study. The simulation result indicates that CS-WD-WNN outperforms the other two models, with minimum statistical errors. Comparison with earlier models shows that CS-WD-WNN still performs best, with the smallest statistical errors. The employment of the CS optimization algorithm in the models shows improvement compared with the earlier models.
文摘Wind speed forecasting is important for wind energy forecasting.In the modern era,the increase in energy demand can be managed effectively by fore-casting the wind speed accurately.The main objective of this research is to improve the performance of wind speed forecasting by handling uncertainty,the curse of dimensionality,overfitting and non-linearity issues.The curse of dimensionality and overfitting issues are handled by using Boruta feature selec-tion.The uncertainty and the non-linearity issues are addressed by using the deep learning based Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(Bi-LSTM).In this paper,Bi-LSTM with Boruta feature selection named BFS-Bi-LSTM is proposed to improve the performance of wind speed forecasting.The model identifies relevant features for wind speed forecasting from the meteorological features using Boruta wrapper feature selection(BFS).Followed by Bi-LSTM predicts the wind speed by considering the wind speed from the past and future time steps.The proposed BFS-Bi-LSTM model is compared against Multilayer perceptron(MLP),MLP with Boruta(BFS-MLP),Long Short Term Memory(LSTM),LSTM with Boruta(BFS-LSTM)and Bi-LSTM in terms of Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),Mean Square Error(MSE)and R2.The BFS-Bi-LSTM surpassed other models by producing RMSE of 0.784,MAE of 0.530,MSE of 0.615 and R2 of 0.8766.The experimental result shows that the BFS-Bi-LSTM produced better forecasting results compared to others.
文摘Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely highly on weather and atmospheric conditions.In microgrids,smart energy management systems,such as integrated demand response programs,are permanently established on a step-ahead basis,which means that accu-rate forecasting of wind speed and solar irradiance intervals is becoming increasingly crucial to the optimal operation and planning of microgrids.With this in mind,a novel“bidirectional long short-term memory network”(Bi-LSTM)-based,deep stacked,sequence-to-sequence autoencoder(S2SAE)forecasting model for predicting short-term solar irradiation and wind speed was developed and evaluated in MATLAB.To create a deep stacked S2SAE prediction model,a deep Bi-LSTM-based encoder and decoder are stacked on top of one another to reduce the dimension of the input sequence,extract its features,and then reconstruct it to produce the forecasts.Hyperparameters of the proposed deep stacked S2SAE forecasting model were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the proposed Bi-LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model was compared to three other deep,and shallow stacked S2SAEs,i.e.,the LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model,gated recurrent unit-based deep stacked S2SAE model,and Bi-LSTM-based shallow stacked S2SAE model.All these models were also optimized and modeled in MATLAB.The results simulated based on actual data confirmed that the proposed model outperformed the alternatives by achieving an accuracy of up to 99.7%,which evidenced the high reliability of the proposed forecasting.
基金This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61902158).
文摘The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to improve power quality and assure real-time power grid scheduling and grid-connected wind farm operation.Inferred statistics are utilized in this research to infer general features based on the selected information,confirming that there are differences between two forecasting categories:Forecast Category 1(0-11 h ahead)and Forecast Category 2(12-23 h ahead).In z-tests,the null hypothesis provides the corresponding quantitative findings.To verify the final performance of the prediction findings,five benchmark methodologies are used:Persistence model,LMNN(Multilayer Perceptron with LMlearningmethods),NARX(Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural networkmodel),LMRNN(RNNs with LM training methods)and LSTM(Long short-term memory neural network).Experiments using a real dataset show that the LSTM network has the highest forecasting accuracy when compared to other benchmark approaches including persistence model,LMNN,NARX network,and LMRNN,and the 23-steps forecasting accuracy has improved by 19.61%.
文摘Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230421 and 41605075)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430101)
文摘The present work reports the development of nonlinear time series prediction method of genetic algorithm（GA） with singular spectrum analysis（SSA） for forecasting the surface wind of a point station in the South China Sea（SCS） with scatterometer observations.Before the nonlinear technique GA is used for forecasting the time series of surface wind,the SSA is applied to reduce the noise.The surface wind speed and surface wind components from scatterometer observations at three locations in the SCS have been used to develop and test the technique.The predictions have been compared with persistence forecasts in terms of root mean square error.The predicted surface wind with GA and SSA made up to four days（longer for some point station） in advance have been found to be significantly superior to those made by persistence model.This method can serve as a cost-effective alternate prediction technique for forecasting surface wind of a point station in the SCS basin.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05040301)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951804)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41101045)
文摘Wind direction forecasting plays an important role in wind power prediction and air pollution management. Weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed are linear variables in which traditional model output statistics and bias correction methods are applied. However, wind direction is an angular variable; therefore, such traditional methods are ineffective for its evaluation. This paper proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasting of turbine height from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a circular-circular regression approach. The technique is applied to a 24-h forecast of 65-m wind directions observed at Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province, China, which consistently yields improvements in forecast performance parameters such as smaller absolute mean error and stronger similarity in wind rose diagram pattern.
基金This project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.61806087,61902158).
文摘As wind and photovoltaic energy become more prevalent,the optimization of power systems is becoming increasingly crucial.The current state of research in renewable generation and power forecasting technology,such as wind and photovoltaic power(PV),is described in this paper,with a focus on the ensemble sequential LSTMs approach with optimized hidden-layers topology for short-term multivariable wind power forecasting.The methods for forecasting wind power and PV production.The physical model,statistical learningmethod,andmachine learning approaches based on historical data are all evaluated for the forecasting of wind power and PV production.Moreover,the experiments demonstrated that cloud map identification has a significant impact on PV generation.With a focus on the impact of photovoltaic and wind power generation systems on power grid operation and its causes,this paper summarizes the classification of wind power and PV generation systems,as well as the benefits and drawbacks of PV systems and wind power forecasting methods based on various typologies and analysis methods.
文摘The exploitation of wind energy is rapidly evolving and is manifested in the ever-expanding global network of offshore wind energy farms.For the Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean Sea(CS),harnessing this mature technology is an important first step in the transition away from fossil fuels.This paper uses buoy and satellite observations of surface wind speed in the CS to estimate wind energy resources over the 2009–201911-year period and initiates hour-ahead forecasting using the long short-term memory(LSTM)network.Observations of wind power density(WPD)at the 100-m height showed a mean of approximately 1000 W/m^(2) in the Colombia Basin,though this value decreases radially to 600–800 W/m^(2) in the central CS to a minimum of approximately 250 W/m^(2) at its borders in the Venezuela Basin.The Caribbean Low-Level Jet(CLLJ)is also responsible for the waxing and waning of surface wind speed and as such,resource stability,though stable as estimated through monthly and seasonal coefficients of variation,is naturally governed by CLLJ activity.Using a commercially available offshore wind turbine,wind energy generation at four locations in the CS is estimated.Electricity production is greatest and most stable in the central CS than at either its eastern or western borders.Wind speed forecasts are also found to be more accurate at this location,and though technology currently restricts offshore wind turbines to shallow water,outward migration to and colonization of deeper water is an attractive option for energy exploitation.
基金Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Service(GRMC2021M19,GRMC2022Q16,GRMC2023M29)。
文摘The Pearl River Estuary(PRE)is one of China’s busiest shipping hubs and fishery production centers,as well as a region with abundant island tourism and wind energy resources,which calls for accurate short-term wind forecasts.First,this study evaluated three operational numerical models,i.e.,ECMWF-EC,NCEP-GFS,and CMA-GD,for their ability to predict short-term wind speed over the PRE against in-situ observations during 2018-2021.Overall,ECMWF-EC out-performs other models with an average RMSE of 2.24 m s^(-1)and R of 0.57,but the NCEP-GFS performs better in the case of strong winds.Then,various bias correction and multi-model ensemble(MME)methods are used to perform the deterministic post-processing using a local and lead-specific scheme.Two-factor model output statistics(MOS2)is the optimal bias correction method for reducing(increasing)the overall RMSE(R)to 1.62(0.70)m s^(-1),demonstrating the benefits of considering both initial and lead-specific information.Intercomparison of MME results reveals that Multiple linear regression(MLR)presents superior skills,followed by random forest(RF),but it is slightly inferior to MOS2,particularly for the first few forecasting hours.Furthermore,the incorporation of additional features in MLR reduces the overall RMSE to 1.53 m s^(-1)and increases R to 0.74.Similarly,RF presents comparable results,and both outperform MOS2 in terms of correcting their deficiencies at the first few lead hours and limiting the error growth rate.Despite the satisfactory skill of deterministic post-processing techniques,they are unable to achieve a balanced performance between mean and extreme statistics.This highlights the necessity for further development of probabilistic forecasts.
