Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the trigge...Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the triggering mechanism, and structural features of mesoscale convective systems during these rainfall events. The main results of WSHR studies in recent years are summarized in this paper. However, WSHR caused by micro- to mesoscale systems often occurs abruptly and locally, making both numerical model predictions and objective forecasts difficult. Further research is needed in three areas:(1) The mechanisms controlling WSHR events need to be understood to clarify the specific effects of various factors and indicate the influences of these factors under different synoptic background circulations. This would enable an understanding of the mechanisms of formation, maintenance, and organization of the convections in WSHR events.(2) In addition to South China, WSHR events also occur during the concentrated summer precipitation in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Valley and North China. A high spatial and temporal resolution dataset should be used to analyze the distribution and environmental conditions, and to further compare the differences and similarities of the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of WSHR events in different regions.(3) More studies of the mechanisms are required, as well as improvements to the model initial conditions and physical processes based on multi-source observations, especially the description of the triggering process and the microphysical parameterization. This will improve the numerical prediction of WSHR events.展开更多
Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteris...Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.展开更多
Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key...Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.展开更多
In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble fo...In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent predictability.The comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.展开更多
With multiple meteorological data, including precipitation from automatic weather stations, integrated satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH), brightness temperature (TBB), radar echoes and NCEP reanalysis, a rainstor...With multiple meteorological data, including precipitation from automatic weather stations, integrated satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH), brightness temperature (TBB), radar echoes and NCEP reanalysis, a rainstorm event, which occurred on May 26, 2007 over South China, is analyzed with the focus on the evolution characteristics of associated mesoscale-β convective systems (Mβcss). Results are shown as follows. (1) The rainstorm presents itself as a typical warm-sector event, for it occurs within a surface inverted trough and on the left side of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ), which shows no obvious features of baroclinicity. (2) The heavy rainfall event is directly related to at least three bodies of Mβcss with peak precipitation corresponding well to their mature stages. (3) The Mβcss manifest a backward propagation, which is marked with a new form of downstream convection different from the more usual type of forward propagation over South China, i.e., new convective systems mainly form at the rear part of older Mβcss. (4) Rainstorm-causing Mβcss form near the convergence region on the left side of an 850-hPa southwesterly LLJ, over which there are dominantly divergent air flows at 200 hPa. Different from the typical flow pattern of outward divergence off the east side of South Asia High, which is usually found to be over zones of heavy rains during the annually first rainy season of South China, this warm-sector heavy rain is below the divergence region formed between the easterly and southerly flows west of the South Asian High that is moving out to sea. (5) The LLJ transports abundant amount of warm and moist air to the heavy rainfall area, providing advantageous conditions for highly unstable energy to generate and store at middle and high levels, where corresponding low-level warm advection may be playing a more direct role in the development of Mβcss. As a triggering mechanism for organized convective systems, the effect of low-level warm advection deserves more of our attention. Based on the analysis of surface mesoscale airflow in the article, possible triggering mechanisms for Mβcss are also discussed.展开更多
In August 2021,a warm-sector heavy rainfall event under the control of the western Pacific subtropical high occurred over the southeastern coast of China.Induced by a linearly shaped mesoscale convective system(MCS),t...In August 2021,a warm-sector heavy rainfall event under the control of the western Pacific subtropical high occurred over the southeastern coast of China.Induced by a linearly shaped mesoscale convective system(MCS),this heavy rainfall event was characterized by localized heavy rainfall,high cumulative rainfall,and extreme rainfall intensity.Using various observational data,this study first analyzed the precipitation features and radar reflectivity evolution.It then examined the role of environmental conditions and the relationship between the ambient wind field and convective initiation(CI).Furthermore,the dynamic lifting mechanism within the organization of the MCS was revealed by em-ploying multi-Doppler radar retrieval methods.Results demonstrated that the linearly shaped MCS,developed under the influence of the subtropical high,was the primary cause of the extreme rainfall event.High temperatures and humidity,coupled with the convergence of low-level southerly winds,established the environmental conditions for MCS develop-ment.The superposition of the convergence zone generated by the southerly winds in the boundary layer(925-1000 hPa)and the divergence zone in the lower layer(700-925 hPa)supplied dynamic lifting conditions for CI.Additionally,a long-term shear line(southerly southwesterly)offered favorable conditions for the organization of the linearly shaped MCS.The combined effects of strengthening low-level southerly winds and secondary circulation in mid-upper levels were influential factors in the development and maintenance of the linearly shaped MCS.展开更多
During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and ...During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we invest...Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.展开更多
In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of conventional sou...In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3) the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.展开更多
A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolutio...A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective ceils are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature （θe） air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θe air. The cold outflow is weak （wind speed ≤ 5 m s-1）, which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2-3℃ and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands （of about 50-kin length） that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.展开更多
Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This ...Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This paper fills the gap by analyzing 15 OWSR events that occurred in an anticyclone synoptic situation during the pre-summer rainy season of 2011-2016,based on high-resolution observational and reanalysis data.The results show that the anticyclone synoptic situation produces marked northerly boundary-layer winds inland and obvious northeasterly,easterly/southwesterly,and southeasterly boundary-layer winds near the coasts of eastern Guangdong,western Guangdong,and Guangxi,respectively.The coastal boundary-layer winds promote favorable environmental conditions and strong convergence for convection initiation;consequently,OWSR is prone to occur near the coasts of western Guangdong and Guangxi,but exhibits different formation and propagation features in the following two subareas.(1)The southeasterly boundary-layer winds tend to converge near the border area between Guangxi and Guangdong(BGG),promoting the formation of a stable convective line along the mountains.The convective line persists with support of upper-level southwesterly winds that facilitate convective cells to propagate along the convective line,producing heavy OWSR along the mountains near BGG.(2)In contrast,a west-east convective line tends to form and maintain near the coast of Yangjiang(YJ)area,about 200 km east of BGG,owing to stable convergence between the easterly(or southwesterly)and the northerly boundary-layer winds reinforced by the mountains near YJ.Moreover,the coupling of upper-level westerly winds with the easterly(southwesterly)boundary-layer winds facilitates expansion(eastward propagation)of the convective line,causing west-east-oriented heavy OWSR near the coast of YJ.In a word,this study reveals refined properties of OWSR initiation and development in the anticyclone synoptic situation,which may help improve the forecast skill of OWSR during the pre-summer rainy season in South China.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall events over southern China are difficult to accurately forecast, due in part to inaccurate initial fields in numerical weather prediction models. In order to determine an efficient way of re...Warm-sector heavy rainfall events over southern China are difficult to accurately forecast, due in part to inaccurate initial fields in numerical weather prediction models. In order to determine an efficient way of reducing the critical initial field errors, this study conducts and compares two sets of 60-member ensemble forecast experiments of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over coastal southern China without data assimilation(NODA) and with radar radial velocity data assimilation(RadarDA). Yangjiang radar data, which can provide offshore high-resolution wind field information, were assimilated by using a Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-based ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) system. The results show that the speed and direction errors of the southeasterly airflow in the marine boundary layer over the northern South China Sea may primarily be responsible for the forecast errors in rainfall and convection evolution. Targeted assimilation of radial velocity data from the Yangjiang radar can reduce the critical initial field errors of most members, resulting in improvements to the ensemble forecast. Specifically, RadarDA simulations indicate that radial-velocity data assimilation(VrDA) can directly reduce the initial field errors in wind speed and direction, and indirectly and slightly adjust the initial moisture fields in most members, thereby improving the evolution features of moisture transport during the subsequent forecast period. Therefore, these RadarDA members can better capture the initiation and development of convection and have higher forecast skill for the convection evolution and rainfall. The improvement in the deterministic forecasts of most members results in an improved overall ensemble forecast performance. However, VrDA sometimes results in inappropriate adjustment of the initial wind field,so the forecast skill of a few members decreases rather than increases after VrDA. This suggests that a degree of uncertainty remains about the effect of the WRF-based EnKF system. Moreover, the results further indicate that accurate forecasts of the convection evolution and rainfall of warm-sector heavy rainfall events over southern China are challenging.展开更多
Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(P...Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.展开更多
Evaluating and understanding the accuracy of cloud microphysical(MP) schemes in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models is crucial for assimilating satellite radiance data under cloudy conditions. This study leverage...Evaluating and understanding the accuracy of cloud microphysical(MP) schemes in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models is crucial for assimilating satellite radiance data under cloudy conditions. This study leverages surface observations, radar reflectivity data, and Himawari-8 satellite radiance data from both water vapor and window channels to assess the performance of four prevalent cloud MP schemes: WSM6, WDM6, Thompson, and Morrison, as implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The assessment focuses on two typical heavy rain events in South China: a warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR) event and a squall line(SL) event. The findings reveal that the cloud MP schemes exhibit varying levels of accuracy across the two events. Notably, for the WSTR event, the WDM6scheme shows the closest alignment with observed rainfall in terms of precipitation forecast. In contrast, the Thompson scheme outperforms the others during the SL event. The simulation of infrared(IR) radiance data from cloud and rain areas remains a significant challenge, particularly for ice clouds, which exhibit greater forecast uncertainty compared to water clouds. Identifying the optimal scheme for describing the full cloud process during rainfall events remains challenging among the evaluated MP schemes. Specifically, the WDM6 scheme stands out in forecasting clear skies and water clouds,while the Morrison and Thompson schemes are found to be more adept at predicting ice clouds. The discrepancies observed between the accuracy of precipitation forecast and cloud prediction highlight the need for further research to identify an MP scheme that effectively balances precipitation forecast with accurate cloudy radiative transfer(RT) simulation for data assimilation(DA). This research offers valuable insights into the selection of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes for all-sky radiance assimilation, particularly under diverse rainfall processes.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675045)National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507200)the Jiangxi Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (Grant No. 20171BBG70005)
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the triggering mechanism, and structural features of mesoscale convective systems during these rainfall events. The main results of WSHR studies in recent years are summarized in this paper. However, WSHR caused by micro- to mesoscale systems often occurs abruptly and locally, making both numerical model predictions and objective forecasts difficult. Further research is needed in three areas:(1) The mechanisms controlling WSHR events need to be understood to clarify the specific effects of various factors and indicate the influences of these factors under different synoptic background circulations. This would enable an understanding of the mechanisms of formation, maintenance, and organization of the convections in WSHR events.(2) In addition to South China, WSHR events also occur during the concentrated summer precipitation in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Valley and North China. A high spatial and temporal resolution dataset should be used to analyze the distribution and environmental conditions, and to further compare the differences and similarities of the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of WSHR events in different regions.(3) More studies of the mechanisms are required, as well as improvements to the model initial conditions and physical processes based on multi-source observations, especially the description of the triggering process and the microphysical parameterization. This will improve the numerical prediction of WSHR events.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507402)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875168,U1811464)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(201605131033247)。
文摘Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42075002 and 42030610)
文摘Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502000)。
文摘In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent predictability.The comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40775068)Research Foundation of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,Technology Project on Meteorology in Guangdong Province Meteorological Bureau (2007A01)
文摘With multiple meteorological data, including precipitation from automatic weather stations, integrated satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH), brightness temperature (TBB), radar echoes and NCEP reanalysis, a rainstorm event, which occurred on May 26, 2007 over South China, is analyzed with the focus on the evolution characteristics of associated mesoscale-β convective systems (Mβcss). Results are shown as follows. (1) The rainstorm presents itself as a typical warm-sector event, for it occurs within a surface inverted trough and on the left side of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ), which shows no obvious features of baroclinicity. (2) The heavy rainfall event is directly related to at least three bodies of Mβcss with peak precipitation corresponding well to their mature stages. (3) The Mβcss manifest a backward propagation, which is marked with a new form of downstream convection different from the more usual type of forward propagation over South China, i.e., new convective systems mainly form at the rear part of older Mβcss. (4) Rainstorm-causing Mβcss form near the convergence region on the left side of an 850-hPa southwesterly LLJ, over which there are dominantly divergent air flows at 200 hPa. Different from the typical flow pattern of outward divergence off the east side of South Asia High, which is usually found to be over zones of heavy rains during the annually first rainy season of South China, this warm-sector heavy rain is below the divergence region formed between the easterly and southerly flows west of the South Asian High that is moving out to sea. (5) The LLJ transports abundant amount of warm and moist air to the heavy rainfall area, providing advantageous conditions for highly unstable energy to generate and store at middle and high levels, where corresponding low-level warm advection may be playing a more direct role in the development of Mβcss. As a triggering mechanism for organized convective systems, the effect of low-level warm advection deserves more of our attention. Based on the analysis of surface mesoscale airflow in the article, possible triggering mechanisms for Mβcss are also discussed.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975001)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian(2023J01186,2022J01445)+1 种基金Science Project of Fujian Meteor-ological Bureau(2021BY01,2021YJ10,3502Z20214ZD4008)Fujian Meteorological Bureau Youth Team Foundation。
文摘In August 2021,a warm-sector heavy rainfall event under the control of the western Pacific subtropical high occurred over the southeastern coast of China.Induced by a linearly shaped mesoscale convective system(MCS),this heavy rainfall event was characterized by localized heavy rainfall,high cumulative rainfall,and extreme rainfall intensity.Using various observational data,this study first analyzed the precipitation features and radar reflectivity evolution.It then examined the role of environmental conditions and the relationship between the ambient wind field and convective initiation(CI).Furthermore,the dynamic lifting mechanism within the organization of the MCS was revealed by em-ploying multi-Doppler radar retrieval methods.Results demonstrated that the linearly shaped MCS,developed under the influence of the subtropical high,was the primary cause of the extreme rainfall event.High temperatures and humidity,coupled with the convergence of low-level southerly winds,established the environmental conditions for MCS develop-ment.The superposition of the convergence zone generated by the southerly winds in the boundary layer(925-1000 hPa)and the divergence zone in the lower layer(700-925 hPa)supplied dynamic lifting conditions for CI.Additionally,a long-term shear line(southerly southwesterly)offered favorable conditions for the organization of the linearly shaped MCS.The combined effects of strengthening low-level southerly winds and secondary circulation in mid-upper levels were influential factors in the development and maintenance of the linearly shaped MCS.
基金National key research and development program of China(2022YFC3003902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,42075086,41975138)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971,2021A1515011415,2019A1515010814)。
文摘During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,41905047,42030610)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M01)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)。
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.
基金Public Welfare Project (GYHX(QX)2007-6-14)Basic operational fees for highest-level public welfare research institutes
文摘In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3) the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406013 and GYHY201406003)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91437104)National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB417202)
文摘A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective ceils are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature （θe） air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θe air. The cold outflow is weak （wind speed ≤ 5 m s-1）, which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2-3℃ and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands （of about 50-kin length） that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41705026,U1433202,41875056,and 91437215)Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(SCSF201801)Special Key Project of Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development(cstc2019jscx-tjsbX0007)。
文摘Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This paper fills the gap by analyzing 15 OWSR events that occurred in an anticyclone synoptic situation during the pre-summer rainy season of 2011-2016,based on high-resolution observational and reanalysis data.The results show that the anticyclone synoptic situation produces marked northerly boundary-layer winds inland and obvious northeasterly,easterly/southwesterly,and southeasterly boundary-layer winds near the coasts of eastern Guangdong,western Guangdong,and Guangxi,respectively.The coastal boundary-layer winds promote favorable environmental conditions and strong convergence for convection initiation;consequently,OWSR is prone to occur near the coasts of western Guangdong and Guangxi,but exhibits different formation and propagation features in the following two subareas.(1)The southeasterly boundary-layer winds tend to converge near the border area between Guangxi and Guangdong(BGG),promoting the formation of a stable convective line along the mountains.The convective line persists with support of upper-level southwesterly winds that facilitate convective cells to propagate along the convective line,producing heavy OWSR along the mountains near BGG.(2)In contrast,a west-east convective line tends to form and maintain near the coast of Yangjiang(YJ)area,about 200 km east of BGG,owing to stable convergence between the easterly(or southwesterly)and the northerly boundary-layer winds reinforced by the mountains near YJ.Moreover,the coupling of upper-level westerly winds with the easterly(southwesterly)boundary-layer winds facilitates expansion(eastward propagation)of the convective line,causing west-east-oriented heavy OWSR near the coast of YJ.In a word,this study reveals refined properties of OWSR initiation and development in the anticyclone synoptic situation,which may help improve the forecast skill of OWSR during the pre-summer rainy season in South China.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3003903)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42030610 and 41774002)+1 种基金Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS (2019KJ018)Basic Research Fund of CAMS (2023Z008, 2023Z001, and 2023Z020)。
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall events over southern China are difficult to accurately forecast, due in part to inaccurate initial fields in numerical weather prediction models. In order to determine an efficient way of reducing the critical initial field errors, this study conducts and compares two sets of 60-member ensemble forecast experiments of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over coastal southern China without data assimilation(NODA) and with radar radial velocity data assimilation(RadarDA). Yangjiang radar data, which can provide offshore high-resolution wind field information, were assimilated by using a Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-based ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) system. The results show that the speed and direction errors of the southeasterly airflow in the marine boundary layer over the northern South China Sea may primarily be responsible for the forecast errors in rainfall and convection evolution. Targeted assimilation of radial velocity data from the Yangjiang radar can reduce the critical initial field errors of most members, resulting in improvements to the ensemble forecast. Specifically, RadarDA simulations indicate that radial-velocity data assimilation(VrDA) can directly reduce the initial field errors in wind speed and direction, and indirectly and slightly adjust the initial moisture fields in most members, thereby improving the evolution features of moisture transport during the subsequent forecast period. Therefore, these RadarDA members can better capture the initiation and development of convection and have higher forecast skill for the convection evolution and rainfall. The improvement in the deterministic forecasts of most members results in an improved overall ensemble forecast performance. However, VrDA sometimes results in inappropriate adjustment of the initial wind field,so the forecast skill of a few members decreases rather than increases after VrDA. This suggests that a degree of uncertainty remains about the effect of the WRF-based EnKF system. Moreover, the results further indicate that accurate forecasts of the convection evolution and rainfall of warm-sector heavy rainfall events over southern China are challenging.
基金supported by the Jianghuai Meteorological Joint Project of Anhui Natural Science Foundation (Grant No.2208085UQ12)。
文摘Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.
基金Guangdong Province Natural Science Foundation Youth Science Fund (2021A1515110944)。
文摘Evaluating and understanding the accuracy of cloud microphysical(MP) schemes in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models is crucial for assimilating satellite radiance data under cloudy conditions. This study leverages surface observations, radar reflectivity data, and Himawari-8 satellite radiance data from both water vapor and window channels to assess the performance of four prevalent cloud MP schemes: WSM6, WDM6, Thompson, and Morrison, as implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The assessment focuses on two typical heavy rain events in South China: a warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR) event and a squall line(SL) event. The findings reveal that the cloud MP schemes exhibit varying levels of accuracy across the two events. Notably, for the WSTR event, the WDM6scheme shows the closest alignment with observed rainfall in terms of precipitation forecast. In contrast, the Thompson scheme outperforms the others during the SL event. The simulation of infrared(IR) radiance data from cloud and rain areas remains a significant challenge, particularly for ice clouds, which exhibit greater forecast uncertainty compared to water clouds. Identifying the optimal scheme for describing the full cloud process during rainfall events remains challenging among the evaluated MP schemes. Specifically, the WDM6 scheme stands out in forecasting clear skies and water clouds,while the Morrison and Thompson schemes are found to be more adept at predicting ice clouds. The discrepancies observed between the accuracy of precipitation forecast and cloud prediction highlight the need for further research to identify an MP scheme that effectively balances precipitation forecast with accurate cloudy radiative transfer(RT) simulation for data assimilation(DA). This research offers valuable insights into the selection of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes for all-sky radiance assimilation, particularly under diverse rainfall processes.
