To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-dec...To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-decomposition associated with kernel-based-extreme-learningmachine optimized by the whale optimization algorithm(VMD-WOA-KELM)is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the displacement is decomposed by VMD to three IMF components and a residual component of different fluctuation characteristics.The key impact factors of each IMF component are selected according to Copula model,and the corresponding WOA-KELM is established to conduct point prediction.Subsequently,the parametric method(PM)and non-parametric method(NPM)are used to estimate the prediction error probability density distribution(PDF)of each component,whose prediction interval(PI)under the 95%confidence level is also obtained.By means of the differential evolution algorithm(DE),a weighted combination model based on the PIs is built to construct the combination-interval(CI).Finally,the CIs of each component are added to generate the total PI.A comparative case study shows that the CIPM performs better in constructing landslide displacement PI with high performance.展开更多
Soil erosion has been recognized as a critical environmental issue worldwide.While previous studies have primarily focused on watershed-scale soil erosion vulnerability from a natural factor perspective,there is a not...Soil erosion has been recognized as a critical environmental issue worldwide.While previous studies have primarily focused on watershed-scale soil erosion vulnerability from a natural factor perspective,there is a notable gap in understanding the intricate interplay between natural and socio-economic factors,especially in the context of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear impacts of human-land interactions.To address this,our study evaluates the soil erosion vulnerability at a provincial scale,taking Hubei Province as a case study to explore the combined effects of natural and socio-economic factors.We developed an evaluation index system based on 15 indicators of soil erosion vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.In addition,the combination weighting method was applied to determine index weights,and the spatial interaction was analyzed using spatial autocorrelation,geographical temporally weighted regression and geographical detector.The results showed an overall decreasing soil erosion intensity in Hubei Province during 2000 and 2020.The soil erosion vulnerability increased before 2000 and then.The areas with high soil erosion vulnerability were mainly confined in the central and southern regions of Hubei Province(Xiantao,Tianmen,Qianjiang and Ezhou)with obvious spatial aggregation that intensified over time.Natural factors(habitat quality index)had negative impacts on soil erosion vulnerability,whereas socio-economic factors(population density)showed substantial spatial variability in their influences.There was a positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and erosion intensity,with the correlation coefficients ranging from-0.41 and 0.93.The increase of slope was found to enhance the positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and intensity.展开更多
Red-green-blue(RGB)beam combiners are widely used in scenarios such as augmented reality/virtual reality(AR/VR),laser projection,biochemical detection,and other fields.Optical waveguide combiners have attracted extens...Red-green-blue(RGB)beam combiners are widely used in scenarios such as augmented reality/virtual reality(AR/VR),laser projection,biochemical detection,and other fields.Optical waveguide combiners have attracted extensive attention due to their advantages of small size,high multiplexing efficiency,convenient mass production,and low cost.An RGB beam combiner based on directional couplers is designed,with a core-cladding relative refractive index difference of 0.75%.The RGB beam combiner is optimized from the perspective of parameter optimization.Using the beam propagation method(BPM),the relationship between the performance of the RGB beam combiner and individual parameters is studied,achieving preliminary optimization of the device’s performance.The key parameters of the RGB beam combiner are optimized using the entropy weight-technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution TOPSIS method,establishing the optimal parameter scheme and further improving the device’s performance indicators.The results show that after optimization,the multiplexing efficiencies for red,green,and blue lights,as well as the average multiplexing efficiency,reached 99.17%,99.76%,96.63%and 98.52%,respectively.The size of the RGB beam combiner is 4.768 mm×0.062 mm.展开更多
First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the cont...First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the contract risks of third party logistics(TPL),respectively.Then,they can determine the combination weights using the combination weighting method.Second,using the combination weights,the contract risks of TPL are evaluated through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the combination weights,the most important risk factor of the contract risks of TPL is choosing sub-contractors.The results are basically consistent with the facts and show that the weights determined by the combination weighting method can avoid the man-made deviations of the subjective weighting method on the one hand,and prevent results opposite to the reality brought about by the objective weighting method on the other hand.Meanwhile,the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are that the contract risks of TPL are at a high risk level.Roughly this matches real situations,and it indicates that the combination weighting method can generate the comprehensive assessment more scientifically and more reasonably as well.展开更多
Based on the constructivism, using the College English（new edition） CD-ROMs for classroom teaching as main media, this paper explores the feasibility of the classroom teaching mode of appropriate combination of trad...Based on the constructivism, using the College English（new edition） CD-ROMs for classroom teaching as main media, this paper explores the feasibility of the classroom teaching mode of appropriate combination of traditional methods with the multimedia overhead projector. The new teaching mode proves to be successful in that it has greatly improved the students＇ ability to use English in an all-round way and has obvious advantages over the only traditional method.展开更多
In this paper, we present a new hybrid conjugate gradient algorithm for unconstrained optimization. This method is a convex combination of Liu-Storey conjugate gradient method and Fletcher-Reeves conjugate gradient me...In this paper, we present a new hybrid conjugate gradient algorithm for unconstrained optimization. This method is a convex combination of Liu-Storey conjugate gradient method and Fletcher-Reeves conjugate gradient method. We also prove that the search direction of any hybrid conjugate gradient method, which is a convex combination of two conjugate gradient methods, satisfies the famous D-L conjugacy condition and in the same time accords with the Newton direction with the suitable condition. Furthermore, this property doesn't depend on any line search. Next, we also prove that, moduling the value of the parameter t,the Newton direction condition is equivalent to Dai-Liao conjugacy condition.The strong Wolfe line search conditions are used.The global convergence of this new method is proved.Numerical comparisons show that the present hybrid conjugate gradient algorithm is the efficient one.展开更多
The accurate identification of the oil-paper insulation state of a transformer is crucial for most maintenance strategies.This paper presents a multi-feature comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighti...The accurate identification of the oil-paper insulation state of a transformer is crucial for most maintenance strategies.This paper presents a multi-feature comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighting and an improved technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method to perform an objective and scientific evaluation of the transformer oil-paper insulation state.Firstly,multiple aging features are extracted from the recovery voltage polarization spectrum and the extended Debye equivalent circuit owing to the limitations of using a single feature for evaluation.A standard evaluation index system is then established by using the collected time-domain dielectric spectrum data.Secondly,this study implements the per-unit value concept to integrate the dimension of the index matrix and calculates the objective weight by using the random forest algorithm.Furthermore,it combines the weighting model to overcome the drawbacks of the single weighting method by using the indicators and considering the subjective experience of experts and the random forest algorithm.Lastly,the enhanced TOPSIS approach is used to determine the insulation quality of an oil-paper transformer.A verification example demonstrates that the evaluation model developed in this study can efficiently and accurately diagnose the insulation status of transformers.Essentially,this study presents a novel approach for the assessment of transformer oil-paper insulation.展开更多
The complex relationships between indicators and water conditions cause fuzzy and gray uncertainties in evaluation of water quality. Compared to conventional single-factor evaluation methods, the combination evaluatio...The complex relationships between indicators and water conditions cause fuzzy and gray uncertainties in evaluation of water quality. Compared to conventional single-factor evaluation methods, the combination evaluation method can consider these two uncertainties to produce more objective and reasonable evaluation results. In this paper, we propose a combination evaluation method with two main parts:(1) the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and gray correlation analysis as submodels with which to consider the fuzzy and gray uncertainties and(2) the establishment of a combination model based on minimum bias squares. In addition, using this method, we evaluate the water quality of a ditch in a typical rice–wheat system of Yixing city in the Taihu Lake Basin during three rainfall events. The results show that the ditch water quality is not good and we found the chemical oxygen demand to be the key indicator that affects water quality most significantly. The proposed combination evaluation method is more accurate and practical than single-factor evaluation methods in that it considers the uncertainties of fuzziness and grayness.展开更多
Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called ent...Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.展开更多
Different criteria and factors are used in different methods of soft soil foundation settlement calculation and engineering geological zoning.The methods used are not universally suitable for complex geological enviro...Different criteria and factors are used in different methods of soft soil foundation settlement calculation and engineering geological zoning.The methods used are not universally suitable for complex geological environments.The post-construction settlement of soft soil foundations are especially large and difficult to calculate.In addition,there are many deficiencies in the current methods used for engineering geological zoning.Focusing on the need of establishing engineering geological zoning for areas with soft soil foundations in the Tianjin Marine Economic Area,combination weighting and extension methods were introduced.An evaluation model for the settlement of soft soil foundations was established using multiple factors and large amounts of data.This evaluation model is accurate and objective for delineating engineering geological zoning.These methods eliminate deficiencies by considering both objective and subjective factors,and help obtain an objective and accurate result.展开更多
Metros are critical infrastructure in big cities and evaluation of their safe operation is of increasing im-portance.To make a reasonable safety evaluation for the metro during operation,this paper establishes a ratio...Metros are critical infrastructure in big cities and evaluation of their safe operation is of increasing im-portance.To make a reasonable safety evaluation for the metro during operation,this paper establishes a rational safety evaluation model based on long-term monitoring data of Shanghai Metro Line 2.Four evaluation indicators,ie.,absolute settlement,relative curvature,deformation rate and curvature radius,are adopted.Analytic hierar-chy process(AHP)and entropy method are combined to determine the weights of the indicators.The risk level values at different mileage are calculated and five danger levels are defined accordingly to determine the safety state of Shanghai Metro Line 2,ie.,safe,relatively safe,critical,relatively dangerous,and dangerous.Safety evaluation of Shanghai Metro Line 2 shows that:83.81%areas of Shanghai Metro Line 2 are in safe,relatively safe and critical states,while 15.63%and 0.57%areas are in relatively dangerous and dangerous states,respectively;the parts of Shanghai Metro Line 2 where the risk level values exceed the critical value are mainly distributed around the mileage at 6.0-7.5km and 8.5-11.0 km,and the risk level value peaks around the mileage at 7.3km,to which much attention should be attached and relevant protective measures be taken;the sections with the high risk level values coincide with the distinctly deforming arcas of the metro,indicating that this evaluation method is valid.展开更多
To effectively quantify the impact of distributed photovoltaic(PV)access on the distribution network,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method of distributed PV grid connection combining subjective and obj...To effectively quantify the impact of distributed photovoltaic(PV)access on the distribution network,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method of distributed PV grid connection combining subjective and objective combination of assignment and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)—rank sum ratio(RSR)(TOPSIS-RSR)method.Based on the traditional distribution network evaluation system,a comprehensive evaluation system has been constructed.It fully considers the new development requirements of distributed PV access on the environmental friendliness and absorptive capacity of the distribution grid and comprehensively reflects the impact of distributed PV grid connection.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to determine the subjective weights of the primary indicators,and the Spearman consistency test was combined to determine the weights of the secondary indicators based on three objective assignment methods.The subjective and objective combination weights of each assessment indicator were calculated through the principle of minimum entropy.Calculate the distance between the indicators to be evaluated and the positive and negative ideal solutions,the relative closeness ranking,and qualitative binning by TOPSIS-RSR method to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results of different scenarios.By setting up different PV grid-connected scenarios and utilizing the IEEE33 node simulation algorithm,the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed subject-object combination assignment and integrated assessment method are verified.展开更多
Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamen...Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamental significance to do sales forecasting work. It needs to considerate the double trend characteristics, history sales data and other main factors that affect cigarette sales. This paper depends on the panel data of A province’s cigarette sales, first we established three single forecasting models, after getting the predicted value of these single models, then using the combination forecasting method which based on PLS to predict the province’s cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the prediction accuracy is good, which could provide a certain reference to cigarette sales forecasting in A province.展开更多
According to the different types and characteristics of satellite fault,a kind of fault diagnosis method is proposed,which integrates multivariate threshold,model-based and fault tree-based method.In order to optimize...According to the different types and characteristics of satellite fault,a kind of fault diagnosis method is proposed,which integrates multivariate threshold,model-based and fault tree-based method.In order to optimize the fault diagnosis method,it takes the advantages and remedy of a defect with other methods.This can diagnose many kinds of satellite fault occurring in the on-orbit phase rapidly and accurately.Besides,it can analyze the damage degree of the failure and establish the measures to eliminate the failure.展开更多
In this paper, a 3rd order combination method with three processes and a 4th order combination method with five processes for solving ODEs are discussed. These methods are the Runge-Kutta method combined with a linear...In this paper, a 3rd order combination method with three processes and a 4th order combination method with five processes for solving ODEs are discussed. These methods are the Runge-Kutta method combined with a linear multistep method, which overcomes the defect of the 3rd order parallel Runge-Kutta method discussed in [1].展开更多
Agricultural, pharmaceutical, and other biologically active substances are emptied or leach into waterways and groundwater, where they can dose-relatedly cause pharmacologic or toxic effects on the resident or depende...Agricultural, pharmaceutical, and other biologically active substances are emptied or leach into waterways and groundwater, where they can dose-relatedly cause pharmacologic or toxic effects on the resident or dependent animal species. Standard methods can be used to evaluate the effects of individual substances, but evaluation of combinations of substances is more difficult. The mathematically rigorous method of isobolographic analysis was coupled with a simple in vivo invertebrate model. Planarians were selected because they are the lowest extant species with a centralized nervous system. Neostigmine bromide and monopotassium phosphate (KH2PO4) were selected as representative of two types of potential pollutants. Neostigmine bromide and KH2PO4 individually produced dose-related lethality over a 60-minute observation period with LD50 values of 122 and 70 mM, respectively. The LD50 value of a 1:1 combination of the two was significantly different (p < 0.05) from the isobolographic line of additivity. We used planarians as a representative fresh-water species and joint-action (‘isobolographic’) analysis to examine possible interaction between pollutants. In the demonstrative example reported here, there was a subadditive interaction between a 1:1 fixed-ratio combination of neostigmine bromide (as a representative acetylcholinesterase inhibitor used in pesticides) and potassium phosphate (used in fertilizers and detergents).展开更多
For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. I...For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. In order to obtain more the accurate results of the reliability sensitivity analysis, a number of hyperplanes are built near the design point by first-order Tayler series expansion, which replace the known nonlinear limit state hypersurface, and an equivalent computational method is utilized to construct an equivalent hyperplane of the obtained hyperplanes. And the reliability sensitivities can be estimated more accurately by the derived equations based on the equivalent hyperplane. An example shows that the method is effective and feasible.展开更多
The stress combination method for the fatigue assessment of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier was investigated based on equivalent waves. The principles of the equivalent waves of ship structures were given, including...The stress combination method for the fatigue assessment of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier was investigated based on equivalent waves. The principles of the equivalent waves of ship structures were given, including the determination of the dominant load parameter, heading, frequency, and amplitude of the equivalent regular waves. The dominant load parameters of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier were identified by the structural stress response analysis, and then a series of equivalent regular waves were defined based on these parameters. A combination method of the structural stress ranges under the different equivalent waves was developed for the fatigue analysis. The combination factors were obtained by least square regression analysis with the stress ranges derived from spectral fatigue analysis as the target value. The proposed method was applied to the hatch comer of another bulk carrier as an example. This shows that the results from the equivalent wave approach agree well with those from the spectral fatigue analysis. The workload is reduced substantially. This method can be referenced in the fatigue assessment of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier.展开更多
This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model...This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42277149,41502299,41372306)the Research Planning of Sichuan Education Department,China(No.16ZB0105)+3 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Independent Research Project(Nos.SKLGP2016Z007,SKLGP2018Z017,SKLGP2020Z009)Chengdu University of Technology Young and Middle Aged Backbone Program(No.KYGG201720)Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Department Program(No.19YYJC2087)China Scholarship Council。
文摘To tackle the difficulties of the point prediction in quantifying the reliability of landslide displacement prediction,a data-driven combination-interval prediction method(CIPM)based on copula and variational-mode-decomposition associated with kernel-based-extreme-learningmachine optimized by the whale optimization algorithm(VMD-WOA-KELM)is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the displacement is decomposed by VMD to three IMF components and a residual component of different fluctuation characteristics.The key impact factors of each IMF component are selected according to Copula model,and the corresponding WOA-KELM is established to conduct point prediction.Subsequently,the parametric method(PM)and non-parametric method(NPM)are used to estimate the prediction error probability density distribution(PDF)of each component,whose prediction interval(PI)under the 95%confidence level is also obtained.By means of the differential evolution algorithm(DE),a weighted combination model based on the PIs is built to construct the combination-interval(CI).Finally,the CIs of each component are added to generate the total PI.A comparative case study shows that the CIPM performs better in constructing landslide displacement PI with high performance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377354)the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei province(2024AFB951)the Chunhui Plan Cooperation Research Project of the Chinese Ministry of Education(202200199).
文摘Soil erosion has been recognized as a critical environmental issue worldwide.While previous studies have primarily focused on watershed-scale soil erosion vulnerability from a natural factor perspective,there is a notable gap in understanding the intricate interplay between natural and socio-economic factors,especially in the context of spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear impacts of human-land interactions.To address this,our study evaluates the soil erosion vulnerability at a provincial scale,taking Hubei Province as a case study to explore the combined effects of natural and socio-economic factors.We developed an evaluation index system based on 15 indicators of soil erosion vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.In addition,the combination weighting method was applied to determine index weights,and the spatial interaction was analyzed using spatial autocorrelation,geographical temporally weighted regression and geographical detector.The results showed an overall decreasing soil erosion intensity in Hubei Province during 2000 and 2020.The soil erosion vulnerability increased before 2000 and then.The areas with high soil erosion vulnerability were mainly confined in the central and southern regions of Hubei Province(Xiantao,Tianmen,Qianjiang and Ezhou)with obvious spatial aggregation that intensified over time.Natural factors(habitat quality index)had negative impacts on soil erosion vulnerability,whereas socio-economic factors(population density)showed substantial spatial variability in their influences.There was a positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and erosion intensity,with the correlation coefficients ranging from-0.41 and 0.93.The increase of slope was found to enhance the positive correlation between soil erosion vulnerability and intensity.
基金Project(52175445)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2022JJ30743)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China+1 种基金Project(2023GK2024)supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(2023ZZTS0391)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China。
文摘Red-green-blue(RGB)beam combiners are widely used in scenarios such as augmented reality/virtual reality(AR/VR),laser projection,biochemical detection,and other fields.Optical waveguide combiners have attracted extensive attention due to their advantages of small size,high multiplexing efficiency,convenient mass production,and low cost.An RGB beam combiner based on directional couplers is designed,with a core-cladding relative refractive index difference of 0.75%.The RGB beam combiner is optimized from the perspective of parameter optimization.Using the beam propagation method(BPM),the relationship between the performance of the RGB beam combiner and individual parameters is studied,achieving preliminary optimization of the device’s performance.The key parameters of the RGB beam combiner are optimized using the entropy weight-technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution TOPSIS method,establishing the optimal parameter scheme and further improving the device’s performance indicators.The results show that after optimization,the multiplexing efficiencies for red,green,and blue lights,as well as the average multiplexing efficiency,reached 99.17%,99.76%,96.63%and 98.52%,respectively.The size of the RGB beam combiner is 4.768 mm×0.062 mm.
基金The National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2006BAH02A06)
文摘First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the contract risks of third party logistics(TPL),respectively.Then,they can determine the combination weights using the combination weighting method.Second,using the combination weights,the contract risks of TPL are evaluated through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the combination weights,the most important risk factor of the contract risks of TPL is choosing sub-contractors.The results are basically consistent with the facts and show that the weights determined by the combination weighting method can avoid the man-made deviations of the subjective weighting method on the one hand,and prevent results opposite to the reality brought about by the objective weighting method on the other hand.Meanwhile,the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are that the contract risks of TPL are at a high risk level.Roughly this matches real situations,and it indicates that the combination weighting method can generate the comprehensive assessment more scientifically and more reasonably as well.
文摘Based on the constructivism, using the College English（new edition） CD-ROMs for classroom teaching as main media, this paper explores the feasibility of the classroom teaching mode of appropriate combination of traditional methods with the multimedia overhead projector. The new teaching mode proves to be successful in that it has greatly improved the students＇ ability to use English in an all-round way and has obvious advantages over the only traditional method.
文摘In this paper, we present a new hybrid conjugate gradient algorithm for unconstrained optimization. This method is a convex combination of Liu-Storey conjugate gradient method and Fletcher-Reeves conjugate gradient method. We also prove that the search direction of any hybrid conjugate gradient method, which is a convex combination of two conjugate gradient methods, satisfies the famous D-L conjugacy condition and in the same time accords with the Newton direction with the suitable condition. Furthermore, this property doesn't depend on any line search. Next, we also prove that, moduling the value of the parameter t,the Newton direction condition is equivalent to Dai-Liao conjugacy condition.The strong Wolfe line search conditions are used.The global convergence of this new method is proved.Numerical comparisons show that the present hybrid conjugate gradient algorithm is the efficient one.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of the Fujian Province(2021J01109).
文摘The accurate identification of the oil-paper insulation state of a transformer is crucial for most maintenance strategies.This paper presents a multi-feature comprehensive evaluation model based on combination weighting and an improved technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method to perform an objective and scientific evaluation of the transformer oil-paper insulation state.Firstly,multiple aging features are extracted from the recovery voltage polarization spectrum and the extended Debye equivalent circuit owing to the limitations of using a single feature for evaluation.A standard evaluation index system is then established by using the collected time-domain dielectric spectrum data.Secondly,this study implements the per-unit value concept to integrate the dimension of the index matrix and calculates the objective weight by using the random forest algorithm.Furthermore,it combines the weighting model to overcome the drawbacks of the single weighting method by using the indicators and considering the subjective experience of experts and the random forest algorithm.Lastly,the enhanced TOPSIS approach is used to determine the insulation quality of an oil-paper transformer.A verification example demonstrates that the evaluation model developed in this study can efficiently and accurately diagnose the insulation status of transformers.Essentially,this study presents a novel approach for the assessment of transformer oil-paper insulation.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFC0405006)the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51621092)the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin (No. 16JCYBJC23100)
文摘The complex relationships between indicators and water conditions cause fuzzy and gray uncertainties in evaluation of water quality. Compared to conventional single-factor evaluation methods, the combination evaluation method can consider these two uncertainties to produce more objective and reasonable evaluation results. In this paper, we propose a combination evaluation method with two main parts:(1) the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and gray correlation analysis as submodels with which to consider the fuzzy and gray uncertainties and(2) the establishment of a combination model based on minimum bias squares. In addition, using this method, we evaluate the water quality of a ditch in a typical rice–wheat system of Yixing city in the Taihu Lake Basin during three rainfall events. The results show that the ditch water quality is not good and we found the chemical oxygen demand to be the key indicator that affects water quality most significantly. The proposed combination evaluation method is more accurate and practical than single-factor evaluation methods in that it considers the uncertainties of fuzziness and grayness.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project during the 13th Five-Year Plan under grant(2016ZX05060-019)the National Science and Technology Major Project during the 13th Five-Year Plan under grant(2016ZX05060004).
文摘Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(Nos.41172236,41402243)
文摘Different criteria and factors are used in different methods of soft soil foundation settlement calculation and engineering geological zoning.The methods used are not universally suitable for complex geological environments.The post-construction settlement of soft soil foundations are especially large and difficult to calculate.In addition,there are many deficiencies in the current methods used for engineering geological zoning.Focusing on the need of establishing engineering geological zoning for areas with soft soil foundations in the Tianjin Marine Economic Area,combination weighting and extension methods were introduced.An evaluation model for the settlement of soft soil foundations was established using multiple factors and large amounts of data.This evaluation model is accurate and objective for delineating engineering geological zoning.These methods eliminate deficiencies by considering both objective and subjective factors,and help obtain an objective and accurate result.
基金the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(Nos.41602283 and 41977216)the Science and Technology Rising-Star Program of Shang-hai(No.19QC1400800)。
文摘Metros are critical infrastructure in big cities and evaluation of their safe operation is of increasing im-portance.To make a reasonable safety evaluation for the metro during operation,this paper establishes a rational safety evaluation model based on long-term monitoring data of Shanghai Metro Line 2.Four evaluation indicators,ie.,absolute settlement,relative curvature,deformation rate and curvature radius,are adopted.Analytic hierar-chy process(AHP)and entropy method are combined to determine the weights of the indicators.The risk level values at different mileage are calculated and five danger levels are defined accordingly to determine the safety state of Shanghai Metro Line 2,ie.,safe,relatively safe,critical,relatively dangerous,and dangerous.Safety evaluation of Shanghai Metro Line 2 shows that:83.81%areas of Shanghai Metro Line 2 are in safe,relatively safe and critical states,while 15.63%and 0.57%areas are in relatively dangerous and dangerous states,respectively;the parts of Shanghai Metro Line 2 where the risk level values exceed the critical value are mainly distributed around the mileage at 6.0-7.5km and 8.5-11.0 km,and the risk level value peaks around the mileage at 7.3km,to which much attention should be attached and relevant protective measures be taken;the sections with the high risk level values coincide with the distinctly deforming arcas of the metro,indicating that this evaluation method is valid.
基金support of the project“State Grid Corporation Headquarters Science and Technology Program(5108-202299258A-1-0-ZB)”.
文摘To effectively quantify the impact of distributed photovoltaic(PV)access on the distribution network,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method of distributed PV grid connection combining subjective and objective combination of assignment and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)—rank sum ratio(RSR)(TOPSIS-RSR)method.Based on the traditional distribution network evaluation system,a comprehensive evaluation system has been constructed.It fully considers the new development requirements of distributed PV access on the environmental friendliness and absorptive capacity of the distribution grid and comprehensively reflects the impact of distributed PV grid connection.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to determine the subjective weights of the primary indicators,and the Spearman consistency test was combined to determine the weights of the secondary indicators based on three objective assignment methods.The subjective and objective combination weights of each assessment indicator were calculated through the principle of minimum entropy.Calculate the distance between the indicators to be evaluated and the positive and negative ideal solutions,the relative closeness ranking,and qualitative binning by TOPSIS-RSR method to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results of different scenarios.By setting up different PV grid-connected scenarios and utilizing the IEEE33 node simulation algorithm,the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed subject-object combination assignment and integrated assessment method are verified.
文摘Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamental significance to do sales forecasting work. It needs to considerate the double trend characteristics, history sales data and other main factors that affect cigarette sales. This paper depends on the panel data of A province’s cigarette sales, first we established three single forecasting models, after getting the predicted value of these single models, then using the combination forecasting method which based on PLS to predict the province’s cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the prediction accuracy is good, which could provide a certain reference to cigarette sales forecasting in A province.
文摘According to the different types and characteristics of satellite fault,a kind of fault diagnosis method is proposed,which integrates multivariate threshold,model-based and fault tree-based method.In order to optimize the fault diagnosis method,it takes the advantages and remedy of a defect with other methods.This can diagnose many kinds of satellite fault occurring in the on-orbit phase rapidly and accurately.Besides,it can analyze the damage degree of the failure and establish the measures to eliminate the failure.
文摘In this paper, a 3rd order combination method with three processes and a 4th order combination method with five processes for solving ODEs are discussed. These methods are the Runge-Kutta method combined with a linear multistep method, which overcomes the defect of the 3rd order parallel Runge-Kutta method discussed in [1].
文摘Agricultural, pharmaceutical, and other biologically active substances are emptied or leach into waterways and groundwater, where they can dose-relatedly cause pharmacologic or toxic effects on the resident or dependent animal species. Standard methods can be used to evaluate the effects of individual substances, but evaluation of combinations of substances is more difficult. The mathematically rigorous method of isobolographic analysis was coupled with a simple in vivo invertebrate model. Planarians were selected because they are the lowest extant species with a centralized nervous system. Neostigmine bromide and monopotassium phosphate (KH2PO4) were selected as representative of two types of potential pollutants. Neostigmine bromide and KH2PO4 individually produced dose-related lethality over a 60-minute observation period with LD50 values of 122 and 70 mM, respectively. The LD50 value of a 1:1 combination of the two was significantly different (p < 0.05) from the isobolographic line of additivity. We used planarians as a representative fresh-water species and joint-action (‘isobolographic’) analysis to examine possible interaction between pollutants. In the demonstrative example reported here, there was a subadditive interaction between a 1:1 fixed-ratio combination of neostigmine bromide (as a representative acetylcholinesterase inhibitor used in pesticides) and potassium phosphate (used in fertilizers and detergents).
文摘For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. In order to obtain more the accurate results of the reliability sensitivity analysis, a number of hyperplanes are built near the design point by first-order Tayler series expansion, which replace the known nonlinear limit state hypersurface, and an equivalent computational method is utilized to construct an equivalent hyperplane of the obtained hyperplanes. And the reliability sensitivities can be estimated more accurately by the derived equations based on the equivalent hyperplane. An example shows that the method is effective and feasible.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （50809019）.
文摘The stress combination method for the fatigue assessment of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier was investigated based on equivalent waves. The principles of the equivalent waves of ship structures were given, including the determination of the dominant load parameter, heading, frequency, and amplitude of the equivalent regular waves. The dominant load parameters of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier were identified by the structural stress response analysis, and then a series of equivalent regular waves were defined based on these parameters. A combination method of the structural stress ranges under the different equivalent waves was developed for the fatigue analysis. The combination factors were obtained by least square regression analysis with the stress ranges derived from spectral fatigue analysis as the target value. The proposed method was applied to the hatch comer of another bulk carrier as an example. This shows that the results from the equivalent wave approach agree well with those from the spectral fatigue analysis. The workload is reduced substantially. This method can be referenced in the fatigue assessment of the hatch comer of a bulk carrier.
文摘This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.
