Accurate predictions of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution.In this study,a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decompositi...Accurate predictions of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution.In this study,a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decomposition method(VMD),econometric forecasting method(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),and deep learning techniques(convolutional neural networks(CNN)and temporal convolutional network(TCN))was developed to model the data characteristics of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations.Taking the PM_(2.5)concentration of Lanzhou,Gansu Province,China as the sample,the empirical results demonstrated that the developed decomposition-ensemble framework is significantly superior to the benchmarks with the econometric model,machine learning models,basic deep learning models,and traditional decomposition-ensemble models,within one-,two-,or three-step-ahead.This study verified the effectiveness of the new prediction framework to capture the data patterns of PM_(2.5)concentration and can be employed as a meaningful PM_(2.5)concentrations prediction tool.展开更多
An observation localization scheme is introduced into an ensemble-based three-dimensional variational （3DVar） assimilation method based on the singular value decomposition technique （SVD-En3DVar） to im- prove assi...An observation localization scheme is introduced into an ensemble-based three-dimensional variational （3DVar） assimilation method based on the singular value decomposition technique （SVD-En3DVar） to im- prove assimilation skill. A point-by-point analysis technique is adopted in which the weight of each obser- vation decreases with increasing distance between the analysis point and the observation point. A set of numerical experiments, in which simulated Doppler radar data are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, is designed to test the scheme. The results are compared with those ob- tained using the original global and local patch schemes in SVD-En3DVar, neither of which includes this type of observation localization. The observation localization scheme not only eliminates spurious analysis increments in areas of missing data, but also avoids the discontinuous analysis fields that arise from the local patch scheme. The new scheme provides better analysis fields and a more reasonable short-range rainfall forecast than the original schemes. Additional forecast experiments that assimilate real data from i0 radars indicate that the short-term precipitation forecast skill can be improved by assimilating radar data and the observation localization scheme provides a better forecast than the other two schemes.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.:71874133 and 72201201)the Research Program of Shaanxi Soft Science,China(Grant No.:2022KRM015)+1 种基金the Youth Innovation Team of Shaanxi Universities(2020-68)Shaanxi Province Qin Chuangyuan“scientist t engineer”team building project(Grant No.:2022KXJ-007).
文摘Accurate predictions of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations are crucial for preventing the harmful effects of air pollution.In this study,a new decomposition-ensemble framework incorporating the variational mode decomposition method(VMD),econometric forecasting method(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),and deep learning techniques(convolutional neural networks(CNN)and temporal convolutional network(TCN))was developed to model the data characteristics of hourly PM_(2.5)concentrations.Taking the PM_(2.5)concentration of Lanzhou,Gansu Province,China as the sample,the empirical results demonstrated that the developed decomposition-ensemble framework is significantly superior to the benchmarks with the econometric model,machine learning models,basic deep learning models,and traditional decomposition-ensemble models,within one-,two-,or three-step-ahead.This study verified the effectiveness of the new prediction framework to capture the data patterns of PM_(2.5)concentration and can be employed as a meaningful PM_(2.5)concentrations prediction tool.
基金Supported by the Open Project Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875063 and 41275102)Fundamental Research Fund for Central Universities of China (lzujbky-2010-9)
文摘An observation localization scheme is introduced into an ensemble-based three-dimensional variational （3DVar） assimilation method based on the singular value decomposition technique （SVD-En3DVar） to im- prove assimilation skill. A point-by-point analysis technique is adopted in which the weight of each obser- vation decreases with increasing distance between the analysis point and the observation point. A set of numerical experiments, in which simulated Doppler radar data are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, is designed to test the scheme. The results are compared with those ob- tained using the original global and local patch schemes in SVD-En3DVar, neither of which includes this type of observation localization. The observation localization scheme not only eliminates spurious analysis increments in areas of missing data, but also avoids the discontinuous analysis fields that arise from the local patch scheme. The new scheme provides better analysis fields and a more reasonable short-range rainfall forecast than the original schemes. Additional forecast experiments that assimilate real data from i0 radars indicate that the short-term precipitation forecast skill can be improved by assimilating radar data and the observation localization scheme provides a better forecast than the other two schemes.
