Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricul...Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB.Therefore,this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model(VFEM).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020,whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased;(2)precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability(e.g.,weights of 0.24 and 0.21),whereas arable land density and gross domestic product(GDP)per capita played less significant roles;and(3)the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005-2020 was mainly at level 3 and below,with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions,which had a higher drought risk potential.展开更多
基金supported by the Supported by Joint Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering and Tsinghua-Ningxia Yinchuan Joint Institute of Internet of Waters on Digital Water Governance(No.sklhse-2022-Iow04)Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(No.IWHR-SKL-202217)。
文摘Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB.Therefore,this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model(VFEM).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020,whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased;(2)precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability(e.g.,weights of 0.24 and 0.21),whereas arable land density and gross domestic product(GDP)per capita played less significant roles;and(3)the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005-2020 was mainly at level 3 and below,with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions,which had a higher drought risk potential.
