As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice E...As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent(SIE).The stage from 1979 to 2006 is characterized by high-frequency(i.e.,seasonal to interannual)temporal variability in SIE and zonal asymmetry in Sea Ice Concentration(SIC),which is primarily under the control of the Amundsen Sea Low(ASL).After 2007,however,sea ice changes exhibit a more spatially homogeneous pattern in SIC and a more temporally long-lasting mode in SIE.Further analysis reveals that sea ice-ocean interaction plays a major role in the low-frequency(i.e.,multiannual)variability of Antarctic sea ice from 2007−22.The related physical process is inferred to manifest as a strong coupling between the surface and the subsurface ocean layers,involving enhanced vertical convection and the downward delivery of the surface anomalies related to ice melting and freezing processes,thus maintaining the SIE anomalies for a longer time.Furthermore,this process mainly occurs in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea(ABS)sector,and the weakened subsurface ocean stratification is the key factor triggering the coupling process in this region.We find that the Circumpolar Deep Water(CDW)over the ABS sector continued to shoal before 2007 and remained stable thereafter.It is speculated that the shoaling of the CDW may be a possible driver leading to the weakening of the subsurface stratification.展开更多
During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the s...During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.展开更多
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation an...El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.展开更多
Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to es...Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to estimate current and future irrigation water needs for rice cultivation in this critical subregion,aiming to identify optimal sowing schedules(OSS)that enhance rainwater utilization and reduce irrigation dependency.The model was driven by current climate data and future projections(2041-2070 and 2071-2099)derived from downscaled Global Circulation Models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The AquaCrop model demonstrated robust performance during validation and calibration,with d-values(0.82-0.93)and R²values(0.85-0.92)indicating strong predictive accuracy for rice yield.Simulation results for efficient irrigation water potential(IWP)under RCP4.5 revealed that strategic shifts in sowing dates can substantially alter water requirements;for instance,advancing the winter-spring sowing to December 5th decreased IWP by 15.6%in the 2041-2070 period,while delaying summer-autumn crop sowing to April 20th increased IWP by 48.6%due to greater reliance on irrigation as rainfall patterns shift.Similar dynamic responses were observed for the 2071-2099 period and for autumn-winter crops.These findings underscore that AquaCrop modeling can effectively predict future irrigation needs and that adjusting cultivation calendars presents a viable,low-cost adaptation strategy.This approach allows farmers in the Plain of Reeds to optimize rainwater use,thereby reducing dependency on supplementary irrigation and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate variability,contributing to more sustainable agricultural water management.展开更多
This research employs micro-CT scanning technology to analyze the porosity,pore fractal dimension,and spatial variability of sandstone preheated to 600℃ and subsequently cooled in water at varying temperatures(20℃,6...This research employs micro-CT scanning technology to analyze the porosity,pore fractal dimension,and spatial variability of sandstone preheated to 600℃ and subsequently cooled in water at varying temperatures(20℃,60℃,100℃).The study investigates the mechanisms by which various factors influence thermal shock damage,focusing on the effects of cooling water temperature and the boiling phase transition.The objective is to develop a method for characterizing thermal shock damage that considers spatial variability.The findings indicate that thermal shock damage is limited to a shallow depth beneath the surface,with increased severity near the surface.The boiling phase transition significantly enhances the convective heat transfer coefficient,resulting in substantially higher thermal shock damage when cooled with 100℃ boiling water compared to 20℃ and 60℃ water.Furthermore,for the entire specimen,heating damage exceeds thermal shock damage,and the influence of thermal shock diminishes as specimen size increases.This study addresses the limitations of traditional methods for assessing thermal shock damage that disregard spatial variability and provides practical guidance for engineering projects to manage thermal shock damage more effectively.展开更多
Maize is an important source of calories and protein in human lives in many countries of the world and is the main staple food in Africa, particularly in eastern Africa. In the Sudan, the low yield of maize was mainly...Maize is an important source of calories and protein in human lives in many countries of the world and is the main staple food in Africa, particularly in eastern Africa. In the Sudan, the low yield of maize was mainly due to the use of low yielding landraces. It is necessary to carry out breeding programs that deal with the production of high yielding, adaptable new varieties. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate genetic variability, heritability, genotypic performance and interrelationships among the traits. Ten maize genotypes evaluated at White Nile Research Station Farm, Kosti, of the Agricultural Research Corporation (ARC), Wad Medani Sudan were planted in a randomized complete block design with three replications during the two seasons of 2021 and 2022. Most evaluated genotypes exhibited a wide and significant variation in the 11 measured traits. Genotypic coefficient of variation and genetic advance were recorded for days to 50% tasseling, ear diameter (cm), number of grains per row and grain yield (t/ha) in both seasons. High heritability and genetic advance were recorded for grain yield, ear length, ear height, plant height, number of rows per ear, ear weight, days to 50% tasseling, 100-grain weight and days to 50% silking. Moreover, there was a highly significant and positive correlation of grain yield with number of rows per ear (r = 0.479), ear length (r = 0.381), 100-grain weight (r = 0.344) and days to 50% tasseling (r = 0.214). The highest yielding five genotypes across the seasons were TZCOM1/ZDPSYN (4.2 t/ha), EEPVAH-3 (4.2 t/ha), F2TWLY131228 (4.1 t/ha), PVA SYN6F2 (3.9 t/ha) and EEPVAH-9 (3.8 t/ha) these were needed to check the adaptability, stability and to test major maize growing areas to make sound recommendations for release.展开更多
Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and ca...Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure.However,the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored.Here,we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability,with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales.First,the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation.Second,extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024,in line with its increasing trend under climate warming.Third,the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter,which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia.As climate warming continues,the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall,interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions,as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt,will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks.This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid-to high-latitude regions.展开更多
In this article,Deng and Song showed compelling evidence on the connection between heart rate variability(HRV)alterations and cancer in 127 cancer patients compared with healthy reference individuals,highlighting auto...In this article,Deng and Song showed compelling evidence on the connection between heart rate variability(HRV)alterations and cancer in 127 cancer patients compared with healthy reference individuals,highlighting autonomic nervous system dysfunction as a significant physiological manifestation in cancer patients.We discussed that the reduced HRV may be associated with cancer treatments,e.g.,operation,chemotherapy and pain control and psychological response such as depression and anxiety related to the affected cancer.A management such as medicine to mood disturbances related to cancer has been shown a benefit to improve HRV in cancer patients.展开更多
In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of...In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of life and aquatic ecosystems in the lower basin water bodies.Analyzing long-term trends in rainfall and water levels is crucial for enhancing our understanding.This study aims to examine the evolving patterns of water level and rainfall in the region.Data on water levels and rainfall from observation stations were gathered from the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting,Vietnam,spanning from 2000 to 2014.The assessment of homogeneity and identification of trend changes were conducted using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test(SNHT)and the Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that changes in water levels at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations have been observed since 2010 due to the operation of flow-regulating structures in the upper Mekong River.Following the commencement of upstream dam operations,the water level at the headwater stations of the Mekong River has been higher than the long-term average during the dry season and lower than the average during the flood season.The study findings highlight the influence of altered rainfall patterns under the impact of climate variability(ICC)on water level trends in the study area.While rainfall plays a significant role in increasing water levels during the flood season,the operation of hydropower dams(UHDs)stands out as the primary factor driving water level reductions in the study area.展开更多
BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefor...BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefore,this study hypothesized that HRV monitoring could predict perioperative complication(PC)in colorectal cancer(CRC)patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of HRV in hospitalized CRC patients.METHODS The observational studies included 87 patients who underwent CRC surgical procedures under enhanced recovery after surgery programs in a first-class hospital.The HRV parameters were compared between the PC group and the non PC(NPC)group from preoperative day 1 to postoperative day(Pod)3.In addition,inflammatory biomarkers and nutritional indicators were also analyzed.RESULTS The complication rate was 14.9%.HRV was markedly abnormal after surgery,especially in the PC group.The frequency-domain parameters(including pNN50)and time-domain parameters[including high-frequency(HF)]of HRV were significantly different between the two groups postoperatively.The pNN50 was significantly greater at Pod1 in the PC group than that in the NPC group and returned to baseline at Pod2,suggesting that patients with complications exhibited autonomic nerve dysfunction in the early postoperative period.In the PC group,HFs were also enhanced from Pod1 and were significantly higher than in the NPC group;inflammatory biomarkers were significantly elevated at Pod2 and Pod3;the levels of nutritional indicators were significantly lower at Pod1 and Pod2;and the white blood cell count was slightly elevated at Pod3.CONCLUSION HRV is independently associated with postoperative complications in patients with CRC.Abnormal HRV could predicted an increased risk of postoperative complications in CRC patients.Continuous HRV could be used to monitor complications in patients with CRC during the perioperative period.展开更多
The Southern Ocean is a critical component in the Earth system by dominating the global heat and anthropogenic carbon uptake and supplying heat to melt the largest ice sheet.Variability and changes in the water masses...The Southern Ocean is a critical component in the Earth system by dominating the global heat and anthropogenic carbon uptake and supplying heat to melt the largest ice sheet.Variability and changes in the water masses of the Southern Ocean are thus important to the global energy and water cycles,carbon cycling,and sea-level change.In this article,we review the recent progress on understanding the variability and changes in the four major water masses in the Southern Ocean,including Subantarctic Mode Water,Antarctic Intermediate Water,Circumpolar Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water.Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water show statistically significant strong circumpolar shoaling,warming,and density reductions since 1970s,indicating that signals of global warming have entered the interior ocean.Meanwhile,strong regional variability of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water responding to surface buoyancy forcing and westerly winds is attracting more attention.Circumpolar Deep Water is an important modulator of heat content and nutrient concentrations on continental shelves around Antarctica and has made significant contributions to the basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves.Since the late 1950s,a long-term freshening trend in Antarctic Bottom Water in the Ross Sea and its downstream region has been observed and is mainly attributed to the accelerated basal melting of ice shelves in West Antarctica.The shrinking of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Weddell Sea during 1992–2020 has also been revealed and is attributed to reduced sea ice production over the southern Weddell continental shelf related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the variability in the Amundsen Sea Low.Though significant advances have been achieved,there is an urgent need to enhance and improve both observations and model performances for better understandings and projections of the formation,transformation,and transport of the water masses in the Southern Ocean.展开更多
Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decada...Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.展开更多
Sandy cobble soil exhibits pronounced heterogeneity.The assessment of the uncertainty surrounding its properties is crucial for the analysis of settlement characteristics resulting from volume loss during shield tunne...Sandy cobble soil exhibits pronounced heterogeneity.The assessment of the uncertainty surrounding its properties is crucial for the analysis of settlement characteristics resulting from volume loss during shield tunnelling.In this study,a series of probabilistic analyses of surface and subsurface settlements was conducted considering the spatial variability of the friction angle and reference stiffness modulus,under different volumetric block proportions(Pv)and tunnel volume loss rates(ηt).The non-intrusive random finite difference method was used to investigate the probabilistic characteristics of maximum surface settlement,width of subsurface settlement trough,maximum subsurface settlement,and subsurface soil volume loss rate through Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,a comparison between stochastic and deterministic analysis results is presented to underscore the significance of probabilistic analysis.Parametric analyses were subsequently conducted to investigate the impacts of the key input parameters in random fields on the settlement characteristics.The results indicate that scenarios with higher Pv or greaterηt result in a higher dispersion of stochastic analysis results.Neglecting the spatial variability of soil properties and relying solely on the mean values of material parameters for deterministic analysis may result in an underestimation of surface and subsurface settlements.From a probabilistic perspective,deterministic analysis alone may prove inadequate in accurately capturing the volumetric deformation mode of the soil above the tunnel crown,potentially affecting the prediction of subsurface settlement.展开更多
Siberian taimen Hucho taimen(Pallas,1773)is a broadly distributed and popular sport fish with high economic value.However,low abundance and hard-to-reach habitat make the Siberian taimen a relatively understudied spec...Siberian taimen Hucho taimen(Pallas,1773)is a broadly distributed and popular sport fish with high economic value.However,low abundance and hard-to-reach habitat make the Siberian taimen a relatively understudied species.Here we describe the morphological variability of two size groups of Siberian taimen juveniles from the eastern(Amur River basin)and western(Kama River basin)parts of the species distribution.The largest morphological differentiation of Siberian taimen juveniles was observed at the inter-basin level.In the Amur River basin,Siberian taimen juveniles also differed morphologically even at sites located at a distance of 20 km from each other,which may be explained by a small home-range inhabitation of juveniles leading to the formation of their morphotype determined by local environmental conditions.The pattern of allometry varies in taimen from different rivers,which could be related to the ontogenetic shift of ecological niches and the level of heterogeneity of the river environment.展开更多
El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).T...El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.展开更多
This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate...This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate estimates of hydrologic variability in California for the last 3000 years.Our study focuses on meteorological summaries of annual precipitation and temperature.The precipitation records go back as far as 1850;the temperature records go back as far as 1880.California hydrologic records show strong variability at the interannual level due to ENSO forcing.They also all show a strong decadal(∼14 yr)cyclicity and evidence for multi-decadal to centennial variability that is consistent with California paleoclimate studies.California temperature records show a long-term warming of 5°F-6°F(2.8°C-3.4°C)associated with global warming,but there is no evidence for a similar long-term trend in hydrologic variability.Long-term Pacific Ocean variability adjacent to central and northern California,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO),show a similar decadal to centennial pattern of variability that we associate with our long-term hydrologic variability.The positive phase of the NPGO and the negative phase of the PDO are associated with the decadal scale(∼14 yr)dry cycles in California for the last 70 years.展开更多
In this article,we comment on the study by Yang et al,which demonstrated significant cross-sectional associations between heart rate variability(HRV)indices,depressive symptoms,and lung function in patients with chron...In this article,we comment on the study by Yang et al,which demonstrated significant cross-sectional associations between heart rate variability(HRV)indices,depressive symptoms,and lung function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Building on these findings,we further explore the underlying mechanisms,particularly inflammatory-autonomic-oxidative stress pathways,as key causal mediators.Moreover,analyzing genetic polymorphisms alongside environmental factors may uncover susceptibility pathways explaining interindividual differences in HRV and comorbidity risk.Additionally,longitudinal studies tracking HRV trajectories could identify thresholds predictive of accelerated lung function decline or cardiovascular events,informing personalized prevention strategies.Integrating longitudinal HRV data with multi-omics biomarkers and machine learning models could enable real-time prediction of depression relapses or COPD exacerbations,facilitating proactive interventions such as personalized biofeedback training or precision anti-inflammatory therapies.By synthesizing these perspectives,this integrative approach promises to advance precision medicine for COPD patients,particularly those with comorbid depression,by addressing both mechanistic insights and clinical translation.展开更多
The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors...The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.展开更多
The change in interannual precipitation variability(P_(IAV)),especially the part driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation over the Pacific,has sparked worldwide concern.However,it is plagued by substantial uncerta...The change in interannual precipitation variability(P_(IAV)),especially the part driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation over the Pacific,has sparked worldwide concern.However,it is plagued by substantial uncertainty,such as model uncertainty,internal variability,and scenario uncertainty.Single-model initial-condition large ensembles(SMILEs)and a polynomial fitting method were suggested to separate these uncertainty sources.However,the applicability of a widely used polynomial fitting method in the uncertainty separation of P_(IAV)projection remains unknown.This study compares three sources of uncertainty estimated from five SMILEs and 28 models with one ensemble member in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Results show that the internal uncertainty based on models with one ensemble member calculated using the polynomial fitting method is significantly underestimated compared to SMILEs.However,internal variability in CMIP6 as represented in the pre-industrial control run,aligns closely with SMILEs.At 1.5°C warming above the preindustrial level,internal variability dominates globally,masking the externally forced P_(IAV)signal.At 2.0°C warming,both internal and model uncertainties are significant over regions like Central Africa,the equatorial Indian Ocean,the Maritime Continent,and the Arctic,while internal variability still dominates elsewhere.In some regions,the forced signal becomes distinguishable from internal variability.This study reveals the limitations of the polynomial fitting method in separating P_(IAV)projection uncertainties and emphasizes the importance of SMILEs for accurately quantifying uncertainty sources.It also suggests that improving the intermodel agreement at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2.0°C will not substantially reduce uncertainty in most regions.展开更多
Varietal deficiencies of upland rice lead to a low paddy grain yield. The aim of this study was to mutagenesis upland rice varieties to improve their agronomic performance. Seeds of varieties FKR45N and FKR47N were th...Varietal deficiencies of upland rice lead to a low paddy grain yield. The aim of this study was to mutagenesis upland rice varieties to improve their agronomic performance. Seeds of varieties FKR45N and FKR47N were therefore irradiated with doses 300, 350 and 400 Gy. The irradiated seeds were sown and the panicles of the M1 plants were individually harvested, and then were advanced to M4 using the “one panicle - one progeny” method. The agronomic performance of M4 lines was compared to that of their parent. The gamma ray mutagenesis has induced significant variability in five yield components, i.e., plant height, main panicle length, total numbers of tillers and productive tillers and paddy grain yield between mutant lines. The highest variabilities were shown for the total number of tillers and the number of productive tillers as well as FKR45N (CV% = 40 % and 36%) and FKR47N (CV% = 31% and 30%) mutant lines. Principal component analysis led to rank the mutant lines from each variety in three clusters. The Pearson correlation showed that the paddy grain yield was significantly and positively correlated with the number of productive tillers (r = 0.61) and plant height (r = 0.66) for FKR47N mutant lines, and these correlation coefficients were r = 0.52 and r = 0.51 for FKR45N mutant lines, respectively. Gamma-ray irradiation also induced an earliness of 50% flowering of 62 days after sowing (DAS) in two FKR45N mutant lines and 67 DAS in one of KR47N mutant lines. The paddy grain yield was improved by 120% and 20% in two FKR45N and FKR47N mutant lines, respectively. A dwarf FKR45N mutant line with an early flowering of 67 DAS and a paddy grain yield (2.34 t ha−1) was generated. These results suggested that any positive increase in the six quantitative traits will increase the paddy grain yield.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation China(Grant No.42176222).
文摘As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent(SIE).The stage from 1979 to 2006 is characterized by high-frequency(i.e.,seasonal to interannual)temporal variability in SIE and zonal asymmetry in Sea Ice Concentration(SIC),which is primarily under the control of the Amundsen Sea Low(ASL).After 2007,however,sea ice changes exhibit a more spatially homogeneous pattern in SIC and a more temporally long-lasting mode in SIE.Further analysis reveals that sea ice-ocean interaction plays a major role in the low-frequency(i.e.,multiannual)variability of Antarctic sea ice from 2007−22.The related physical process is inferred to manifest as a strong coupling between the surface and the subsurface ocean layers,involving enhanced vertical convection and the downward delivery of the surface anomalies related to ice melting and freezing processes,thus maintaining the SIE anomalies for a longer time.Furthermore,this process mainly occurs in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea(ABS)sector,and the weakened subsurface ocean stratification is the key factor triggering the coupling process in this region.We find that the Circumpolar Deep Water(CDW)over the ABS sector continued to shoal before 2007 and remained stable thereafter.It is speculated that the shoaling of the CDW may be a possible driver leading to the weakening of the subsurface stratification.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42088101]。
文摘During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.
基金jointly supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42141017 and 41975112]。
文摘El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.
文摘Climate variability significantly impacts agricultural water resources,particularly in regions like Vietnam's Plain of Reeds that heavily utilize rain-fed conditions.This study employs the FAO-AquaCrop model to estimate current and future irrigation water needs for rice cultivation in this critical subregion,aiming to identify optimal sowing schedules(OSS)that enhance rainwater utilization and reduce irrigation dependency.The model was driven by current climate data and future projections(2041-2070 and 2071-2099)derived from downscaled Global Circulation Models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The AquaCrop model demonstrated robust performance during validation and calibration,with d-values(0.82-0.93)and R²values(0.85-0.92)indicating strong predictive accuracy for rice yield.Simulation results for efficient irrigation water potential(IWP)under RCP4.5 revealed that strategic shifts in sowing dates can substantially alter water requirements;for instance,advancing the winter-spring sowing to December 5th decreased IWP by 15.6%in the 2041-2070 period,while delaying summer-autumn crop sowing to April 20th increased IWP by 48.6%due to greater reliance on irrigation as rainfall patterns shift.Similar dynamic responses were observed for the 2071-2099 period and for autumn-winter crops.These findings underscore that AquaCrop modeling can effectively predict future irrigation needs and that adjusting cultivation calendars presents a viable,low-cost adaptation strategy.This approach allows farmers in the Plain of Reeds to optimize rainwater use,thereby reducing dependency on supplementary irrigation and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate variability,contributing to more sustainable agricultural water management.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51874207)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province(Grant Nos.202303021211042 and 202303011222006).
文摘This research employs micro-CT scanning technology to analyze the porosity,pore fractal dimension,and spatial variability of sandstone preheated to 600℃ and subsequently cooled in water at varying temperatures(20℃,60℃,100℃).The study investigates the mechanisms by which various factors influence thermal shock damage,focusing on the effects of cooling water temperature and the boiling phase transition.The objective is to develop a method for characterizing thermal shock damage that considers spatial variability.The findings indicate that thermal shock damage is limited to a shallow depth beneath the surface,with increased severity near the surface.The boiling phase transition significantly enhances the convective heat transfer coefficient,resulting in substantially higher thermal shock damage when cooled with 100℃ boiling water compared to 20℃ and 60℃ water.Furthermore,for the entire specimen,heating damage exceeds thermal shock damage,and the influence of thermal shock diminishes as specimen size increases.This study addresses the limitations of traditional methods for assessing thermal shock damage that disregard spatial variability and provides practical guidance for engineering projects to manage thermal shock damage more effectively.
文摘Maize is an important source of calories and protein in human lives in many countries of the world and is the main staple food in Africa, particularly in eastern Africa. In the Sudan, the low yield of maize was mainly due to the use of low yielding landraces. It is necessary to carry out breeding programs that deal with the production of high yielding, adaptable new varieties. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate genetic variability, heritability, genotypic performance and interrelationships among the traits. Ten maize genotypes evaluated at White Nile Research Station Farm, Kosti, of the Agricultural Research Corporation (ARC), Wad Medani Sudan were planted in a randomized complete block design with three replications during the two seasons of 2021 and 2022. Most evaluated genotypes exhibited a wide and significant variation in the 11 measured traits. Genotypic coefficient of variation and genetic advance were recorded for days to 50% tasseling, ear diameter (cm), number of grains per row and grain yield (t/ha) in both seasons. High heritability and genetic advance were recorded for grain yield, ear length, ear height, plant height, number of rows per ear, ear weight, days to 50% tasseling, 100-grain weight and days to 50% silking. Moreover, there was a highly significant and positive correlation of grain yield with number of rows per ear (r = 0.479), ear length (r = 0.381), 100-grain weight (r = 0.344) and days to 50% tasseling (r = 0.214). The highest yielding five genotypes across the seasons were TZCOM1/ZDPSYN (4.2 t/ha), EEPVAH-3 (4.2 t/ha), F2TWLY131228 (4.1 t/ha), PVA SYN6F2 (3.9 t/ha) and EEPVAH-9 (3.8 t/ha) these were needed to check the adaptability, stability and to test major maize growing areas to make sound recommendations for release.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42422502,42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program(Grant No.QBZ202306)。
文摘Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia,mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia,from late March to April 2024.It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure.However,the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored.Here,we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability,with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales.First,the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation.Second,extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024,in line with its increasing trend under climate warming.Third,the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter,which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia.As climate warming continues,the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall,interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions,as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt,will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks.This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid-to high-latitude regions.
文摘In this article,Deng and Song showed compelling evidence on the connection between heart rate variability(HRV)alterations and cancer in 127 cancer patients compared with healthy reference individuals,highlighting autonomic nervous system dysfunction as a significant physiological manifestation in cancer patients.We discussed that the reduced HRV may be associated with cancer treatments,e.g.,operation,chemotherapy and pain control and psychological response such as depression and anxiety related to the affected cancer.A management such as medicine to mood disturbances related to cancer has been shown a benefit to improve HRV in cancer patients.
基金funded by the University of Science,VNU-HCM under grant number T2022-10 project entitled“Water level variability in the Mekong Delta under the impacts of anthropogenic and climatic factors”.
文摘In recent years,the water level in the Mekong Delta(MD)has undergone changes,attributed to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.Declining water levels have had implications for various aspects of life and aquatic ecosystems in the lower basin water bodies.Analyzing long-term trends in rainfall and water levels is crucial for enhancing our understanding.This study aims to examine the evolving patterns of water level and rainfall in the region.Data on water levels and rainfall from observation stations were gathered from the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting,Vietnam,spanning from 2000 to 2014.The assessment of homogeneity and identification of trend changes were conducted using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test(SNHT)and the Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that changes in water levels at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations have been observed since 2010 due to the operation of flow-regulating structures in the upper Mekong River.Following the commencement of upstream dam operations,the water level at the headwater stations of the Mekong River has been higher than the long-term average during the dry season and lower than the average during the flood season.The study findings highlight the influence of altered rainfall patterns under the impact of climate variability(ICC)on water level trends in the study area.While rainfall plays a significant role in increasing water levels during the flood season,the operation of hydropower dams(UHDs)stands out as the primary factor driving water level reductions in the study area.
基金Supported by The Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,No.XZR2021019The Outstanding Young Doctor Program of Jiangsu Province of Chinese Medicine,No.2023QB0140+1 种基金Project of National Clinical Research Base of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Jiangsu Province,No.JD2022SZ18The Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,No.KYCX21_1710.
文摘BACKGROUND Heart rate variability(HRV)represents efferent vagus nerve activity,which is suggested to be related to fundamental mechanisms of tumorigenesis and to be a predictor of prognosis in various cancers.Therefore,this study hypothesized that HRV monitoring could predict perioperative complication(PC)in colorectal cancer(CRC)patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of HRV in hospitalized CRC patients.METHODS The observational studies included 87 patients who underwent CRC surgical procedures under enhanced recovery after surgery programs in a first-class hospital.The HRV parameters were compared between the PC group and the non PC(NPC)group from preoperative day 1 to postoperative day(Pod)3.In addition,inflammatory biomarkers and nutritional indicators were also analyzed.RESULTS The complication rate was 14.9%.HRV was markedly abnormal after surgery,especially in the PC group.The frequency-domain parameters(including pNN50)and time-domain parameters[including high-frequency(HF)]of HRV were significantly different between the two groups postoperatively.The pNN50 was significantly greater at Pod1 in the PC group than that in the NPC group and returned to baseline at Pod2,suggesting that patients with complications exhibited autonomic nerve dysfunction in the early postoperative period.In the PC group,HFs were also enhanced from Pod1 and were significantly higher than in the NPC group;inflammatory biomarkers were significantly elevated at Pod2 and Pod3;the levels of nutritional indicators were significantly lower at Pod1 and Pod2;and the white blood cell count was slightly elevated at Pod3.CONCLUSION HRV is independently associated with postoperative complications in patients with CRC.Abnormal HRV could predicted an increased risk of postoperative complications in CRC patients.Continuous HRV could be used to monitor complications in patients with CRC during the perioperative period.
基金The Independent Research Foundation of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract Nos SML2023SP201 and SML2021SP306the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China under contract No.2024A1515012717+5 种基金the Initial Research Foundation of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract Nos 313021004,313022009,and 313022001the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41706225the National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2018YFA0605701the Impact and Response of Antarctic Seas to Climate Change under contract No.IRASCC 1-02-01Bthe Shenlan Program funded by Shanghai Jiao Tong University under contract No.SL2020MS021the fund from Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Polar Research.
文摘The Southern Ocean is a critical component in the Earth system by dominating the global heat and anthropogenic carbon uptake and supplying heat to melt the largest ice sheet.Variability and changes in the water masses of the Southern Ocean are thus important to the global energy and water cycles,carbon cycling,and sea-level change.In this article,we review the recent progress on understanding the variability and changes in the four major water masses in the Southern Ocean,including Subantarctic Mode Water,Antarctic Intermediate Water,Circumpolar Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water.Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water show statistically significant strong circumpolar shoaling,warming,and density reductions since 1970s,indicating that signals of global warming have entered the interior ocean.Meanwhile,strong regional variability of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water responding to surface buoyancy forcing and westerly winds is attracting more attention.Circumpolar Deep Water is an important modulator of heat content and nutrient concentrations on continental shelves around Antarctica and has made significant contributions to the basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves.Since the late 1950s,a long-term freshening trend in Antarctic Bottom Water in the Ross Sea and its downstream region has been observed and is mainly attributed to the accelerated basal melting of ice shelves in West Antarctica.The shrinking of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Weddell Sea during 1992–2020 has also been revealed and is attributed to reduced sea ice production over the southern Weddell continental shelf related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the variability in the Amundsen Sea Low.Though significant advances have been achieved,there is an urgent need to enhance and improve both observations and model performances for better understandings and projections of the formation,transformation,and transport of the water masses in the Southern Ocean.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130604)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0804704)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42105044)Swedish STINT(Grant No.CH2019-8377)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(Grant No.164320H116)。
文摘Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality(No.8222004),Chinathe National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51978019)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(No.252300420445),Chinathe Doctoral Research Initiation Fund of Henan University of Science and Technology(No.4007/13480062),Chinathe Henan Postdoctoral Foundation(No.13554005),Chinathe Joint Fund of Science and Technology R&D Program of Henan Province(No.232103810082),China。
文摘Sandy cobble soil exhibits pronounced heterogeneity.The assessment of the uncertainty surrounding its properties is crucial for the analysis of settlement characteristics resulting from volume loss during shield tunnelling.In this study,a series of probabilistic analyses of surface and subsurface settlements was conducted considering the spatial variability of the friction angle and reference stiffness modulus,under different volumetric block proportions(Pv)and tunnel volume loss rates(ηt).The non-intrusive random finite difference method was used to investigate the probabilistic characteristics of maximum surface settlement,width of subsurface settlement trough,maximum subsurface settlement,and subsurface soil volume loss rate through Monte Carlo simulations.Additionally,a comparison between stochastic and deterministic analysis results is presented to underscore the significance of probabilistic analysis.Parametric analyses were subsequently conducted to investigate the impacts of the key input parameters in random fields on the settlement characteristics.The results indicate that scenarios with higher Pv or greaterηt result in a higher dispersion of stochastic analysis results.Neglecting the spatial variability of soil properties and relying solely on the mean values of material parameters for deterministic analysis may result in an underestimation of surface and subsurface settlements.From a probabilistic perspective,deterministic analysis alone may prove inadequate in accurately capturing the volumetric deformation mode of the soil above the tunnel crown,potentially affecting the prediction of subsurface settlement.
文摘Siberian taimen Hucho taimen(Pallas,1773)is a broadly distributed and popular sport fish with high economic value.However,low abundance and hard-to-reach habitat make the Siberian taimen a relatively understudied species.Here we describe the morphological variability of two size groups of Siberian taimen juveniles from the eastern(Amur River basin)and western(Kama River basin)parts of the species distribution.The largest morphological differentiation of Siberian taimen juveniles was observed at the inter-basin level.In the Amur River basin,Siberian taimen juveniles also differed morphologically even at sites located at a distance of 20 km from each other,which may be explained by a small home-range inhabitation of juveniles leading to the formation of their morphotype determined by local environmental conditions.The pattern of allometry varies in taimen from different rivers,which could be related to the ontogenetic shift of ecological niches and the level of heterogeneity of the river environment.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42288101,42192564)Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(2020YFA0608802)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)。
文摘El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.
文摘This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years.Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate estimates of hydrologic variability in California for the last 3000 years.Our study focuses on meteorological summaries of annual precipitation and temperature.The precipitation records go back as far as 1850;the temperature records go back as far as 1880.California hydrologic records show strong variability at the interannual level due to ENSO forcing.They also all show a strong decadal(∼14 yr)cyclicity and evidence for multi-decadal to centennial variability that is consistent with California paleoclimate studies.California temperature records show a long-term warming of 5°F-6°F(2.8°C-3.4°C)associated with global warming,but there is no evidence for a similar long-term trend in hydrologic variability.Long-term Pacific Ocean variability adjacent to central and northern California,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO),show a similar decadal to centennial pattern of variability that we associate with our long-term hydrologic variability.The positive phase of the NPGO and the negative phase of the PDO are associated with the decadal scale(∼14 yr)dry cycles in California for the last 70 years.
文摘In this article,we comment on the study by Yang et al,which demonstrated significant cross-sectional associations between heart rate variability(HRV)indices,depressive symptoms,and lung function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Building on these findings,we further explore the underlying mechanisms,particularly inflammatory-autonomic-oxidative stress pathways,as key causal mediators.Moreover,analyzing genetic polymorphisms alongside environmental factors may uncover susceptibility pathways explaining interindividual differences in HRV and comorbidity risk.Additionally,longitudinal studies tracking HRV trajectories could identify thresholds predictive of accelerated lung function decline or cardiovascular events,informing personalized prevention strategies.Integrating longitudinal HRV data with multi-omics biomarkers and machine learning models could enable real-time prediction of depression relapses or COPD exacerbations,facilitating proactive interventions such as personalized biofeedback training or precision anti-inflammatory therapies.By synthesizing these perspectives,this integrative approach promises to advance precision medicine for COPD patients,particularly those with comorbid depression,by addressing both mechanistic insights and clinical translation.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875114)Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality,China(23DZ1204703)。
文摘The rapid intensification(RI)magnitude of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales.These factors primarily include:interannual factors—sea surface temperature(SST)in key regions of the WNP,eastern Indian Ocean SST,El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),South Pacific Subtropical Dipole(SPSD),and western Pacific teleconnection;decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);and longer-term factor—global warming.This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts,quantitatively assessing their relative importance.A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods.The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions.Among them,the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude,followed by global warming and the AMO.Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42425504).
文摘The change in interannual precipitation variability(P_(IAV)),especially the part driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation over the Pacific,has sparked worldwide concern.However,it is plagued by substantial uncertainty,such as model uncertainty,internal variability,and scenario uncertainty.Single-model initial-condition large ensembles(SMILEs)and a polynomial fitting method were suggested to separate these uncertainty sources.However,the applicability of a widely used polynomial fitting method in the uncertainty separation of P_(IAV)projection remains unknown.This study compares three sources of uncertainty estimated from five SMILEs and 28 models with one ensemble member in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Results show that the internal uncertainty based on models with one ensemble member calculated using the polynomial fitting method is significantly underestimated compared to SMILEs.However,internal variability in CMIP6 as represented in the pre-industrial control run,aligns closely with SMILEs.At 1.5°C warming above the preindustrial level,internal variability dominates globally,masking the externally forced P_(IAV)signal.At 2.0°C warming,both internal and model uncertainties are significant over regions like Central Africa,the equatorial Indian Ocean,the Maritime Continent,and the Arctic,while internal variability still dominates elsewhere.In some regions,the forced signal becomes distinguishable from internal variability.This study reveals the limitations of the polynomial fitting method in separating P_(IAV)projection uncertainties and emphasizes the importance of SMILEs for accurately quantifying uncertainty sources.It also suggests that improving the intermodel agreement at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2.0°C will not substantially reduce uncertainty in most regions.
文摘Varietal deficiencies of upland rice lead to a low paddy grain yield. The aim of this study was to mutagenesis upland rice varieties to improve their agronomic performance. Seeds of varieties FKR45N and FKR47N were therefore irradiated with doses 300, 350 and 400 Gy. The irradiated seeds were sown and the panicles of the M1 plants were individually harvested, and then were advanced to M4 using the “one panicle - one progeny” method. The agronomic performance of M4 lines was compared to that of their parent. The gamma ray mutagenesis has induced significant variability in five yield components, i.e., plant height, main panicle length, total numbers of tillers and productive tillers and paddy grain yield between mutant lines. The highest variabilities were shown for the total number of tillers and the number of productive tillers as well as FKR45N (CV% = 40 % and 36%) and FKR47N (CV% = 31% and 30%) mutant lines. Principal component analysis led to rank the mutant lines from each variety in three clusters. The Pearson correlation showed that the paddy grain yield was significantly and positively correlated with the number of productive tillers (r = 0.61) and plant height (r = 0.66) for FKR47N mutant lines, and these correlation coefficients were r = 0.52 and r = 0.51 for FKR45N mutant lines, respectively. Gamma-ray irradiation also induced an earliness of 50% flowering of 62 days after sowing (DAS) in two FKR45N mutant lines and 67 DAS in one of KR47N mutant lines. The paddy grain yield was improved by 120% and 20% in two FKR45N and FKR47N mutant lines, respectively. A dwarf FKR45N mutant line with an early flowering of 67 DAS and a paddy grain yield (2.34 t ha−1) was generated. These results suggested that any positive increase in the six quantitative traits will increase the paddy grain yield.
