International trade research has long sought to investigate how manufacturers can upgrade within global value chains and escape the“low-end trap”.This paper examines how collaborative innovation can facilitate this ...International trade research has long sought to investigate how manufacturers can upgrade within global value chains and escape the“low-end trap”.This paper examines how collaborative innovation can facilitate this ascent,using an undirected weighted network of joint patent applications and firm-level data.By analyzing the network’s structural characteristics and its evolution,we explore the mechanisms through which collaboration drives the rise of manufacturing enterprises within global value chains.Our findings show that:(1)China’s rapidly expanding collaborative innovation network features a distinct“core-periphery”structure,with leading firms,universities,and government research institutions at its center.(2)By strengthening market power and enabling firms to take on more advanced production,collaborative innovation contributes to a higher domestic value-added rate in exports.(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of collaborative innovation on moving up the value chain is particularly evident for firms with strong production and technology absorption capabilities,those positioned lower in the value chain,and those facing fewer trade barriers.展开更多
This research aimed to understand supply and demand in the global nickel market from a product chain perspective. Accordingly, we established an extensive time-series database for the nickel trade network and employed...This research aimed to understand supply and demand in the global nickel market from a product chain perspective. Accordingly, we established an extensive time-series database for the nickel trade network and employed network analysis methods to explore the dynamics and shifts in the global nickel trade network. The results are as follows: first, refined nickel and nickel semis dominated global nickel trade;second, the interaction between different nickel product networks profoundly affected the global nickel supply chain;third, the global nickel trade network consisted of core-periphery structures exhibiting different degrees of spatial heterogeneity;and fourth, the most connected global backbone structure was in nickel semis, followed by refined nickel, nickel ore, and nickel scrap. Together, trade in these four products constituted an overall network topology characterized by complex forms, a clear hierarchy, and uneven development. We conclude the paper by making several recommendations to secure global nickel supply chains and promote nickel circular economy.展开更多
As a global strategic reserve resource,rare earth has been widely used in important industries,such as military equipment and biomedicine.However,existing analyses based solely on the total volume of rare earth trade ...As a global strategic reserve resource,rare earth has been widely used in important industries,such as military equipment and biomedicine.However,existing analyses based solely on the total volume of rare earth trade fail to uncover the underlying competition and dependency dynamics.To address this gap,this paper employs the principles of trade preference and import similarity to construct dependency and competition networks.Complex network analysis is then employed to study the evolution of the global rare earth trade network from 2002 to 2018.The main conclusions are as follows.The global rare earth trade follows the Pareto principle,and the trade network shows a scale-free distribution.China has emerged as the world’s largest importer and exporter of rare earth since 2017.In the dependency network,China has become the most dependent country since 2006.The result of community division shows that China has separated from the American community and formed new communities with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)countries.The United States of America has formed a super-strong community with European and Asian countries.In the competition network,the distribution of competition intensity follows a scale-free distribution.Most countries face low-intensity competition,but there are numerous competing countries.The competition related to China has increased significantly.Lastly,the competition source for the United States of America has shifted from Mexico to China,resulting in China,the USA,and Japan becoming the core participants in the competition network.展开更多
The economic potential induced by environmental changes in the Arctic region garnered substantial interest,which positions Arctic trade as a crucial indicator in forecasting the impacts of climate change on the global...The economic potential induced by environmental changes in the Arctic region garnered substantial interest,which positions Arctic trade as a crucial indicator in forecasting the impacts of climate change on the global economy.Nevertheless,attention devoted to the evolving dynamics of trade in the Arctic region remains scarce.In this study,we constructed export trade network in the Arctic region(including Denmark,Finland,Sweden,Norway,Iceland,the Canadian Arctic,the Russian Arctic,Alaska State of the USA,and Greenland)from 1990 to 2019 and analyzed its topology and evolutionary characteristics through complex network theory.We used a structural entropy index based on the distribution of the number of trading partners and the degree of trade concentration to assess export diversity,while we also utilized a revealed comparative advantage index to evaluate product export competitiveness using the share of trade volume of each type of product.The results indicate that the total export trade in the Arctic region increased by 53.4%during 1990-2019,with the most significant growth observed in the exports of chemical products and mineral fuels.The increasing complexity of trade network in the Arctic region resulted in the region’s export destinations no longer being concentrated on a few major countries and regions.The proportion of exports from the Arctic region to Europe decreased by 13.5%,while the proportion of exports from the Arctic region to Asia and North America increased by 6.8%and 3.1%,respectively.The Arctic region exhibited clear distinctions in the range of flows of different products,and its export trade was becoming increasingly diversified.Although differences in comparative advantages between products within individual countries or regions have narrowed,substantial gaps persist.The findings of this study can enhance the comprehensive understanding of the significance and function of Arctic trade activities within the global economy,providing a scientific basis for addressing the associated challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change.展开更多
Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage （RCA） of China＇s various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conve...Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage （RCA） of China＇s various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach. Results indicate that： （1） the RCA index measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach has underestimated China＇s comparative advantage of labor-intensive sectors but overestimated China＇s comparative advantage in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive manufacturing sectors, giving rise to a serious misjudgment. （2） The RCA measured using value-added approach shows that in the industry chain layout of global manufacturing sectors, China＇s comparative advantage is still concentrated in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors but has signs of weakening; in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive sectors, China is yet to develop any significant comparative advantage; there are signs that China is developing comparative advantage in capital-intensive sectors yet China＇s comparative disadvantage in knowledge and technology-intensive sectors has no significant tendency to improve. This result not only helps correct the misjudgment of China＇s competitiveness in manufacturing sectors based on conventional aggregate accounting approach but offers important policy implications for setting strategic directions and policies for China＇s manufacturing transition and upgrade.展开更多
Microgrids (MGs) and active distribution networks (ADNs) are important platforms for distributed energy resource (DER) consumption. The increasing penetration of DERs has motivated the development ADNs coupled with MG...Microgrids (MGs) and active distribution networks (ADNs) are important platforms for distributed energy resource (DER) consumption. The increasing penetration of DERs has motivated the development ADNs coupled with MGs. This paper proposes a distributedco-optimization method for peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and network operation for an ADN integrated with multiple microgrids(MMGs). A framework that optimizes P2P energy trading among MMGs and ADN operations was first established. Subsequently, anenergy management model that aims to minimize the operation and energy trading costs was constructed for each MG. Accordingly, theMMGs’ cooperative game model was established based on Nash bargaining theory to incentivize each stakeholder to participate in P2Penergy trading, and a distributed solution method based on the alternating direction method of multipliers was developed. Moreover, analgorithm that adjusts the amount of energy trading between the ADN and MG is proposed to ensure safe operation of the distributionnetwork. With the communication between the MG and ADN, the MMGs’ P2P trading and ADN operations are optimized in a coordinated manner. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted to verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Coope...Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants＇ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） is not only China＇s new action to drive its open and global develoPment, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, the topological relationship between the this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community （South Asia-West Asia）. Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Ger- many-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topo- logical analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.展开更多
The production and trade of primary products had a growing impact on the economic security of all countries and regions,and the strategic position of these products in the global trade network was becoming increasingl...The production and trade of primary products had a growing impact on the economic security of all countries and regions,and the strategic position of these products in the global trade network was becoming increasingly prominent.Based on complex network theory,this paper explored the spatial pattern and complex structural evolution of the global primary product trade network(GPPTN)during 1985-2015 by using index methods,such as centrality,Sankey diagram,and structure entropy,focusing on the diversified spatial structure of China’s import and export markets for primary products(with exceptions of Taiwan of China,Hong Kong of China,and Macao of China due to a lack of data)and their geographical implications for China’s energy security.The research offered the following key findings.The GPPTN showed an obvious spatial heterogeneity pattern,and the area of import consumption was more concentrated;however,the overall trend was decentralized.The trade center of gravity shifted eastwards and reflected the rise of emerging markets.The overall flow of the GPPTN was from west to east and from south to north.In terms of the community detection of the GPPTN,North America,Europe,and Asia increasingly presented an unbalanced“tripartite confrontation”.China’s exports of primary products were mainly concentrated in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and other peripheral regions of Asia,and its imports undergone a major transformation,gradually expanding from the peripheral regions of Asia to Africa,the Middle East,Latin America,and other parts of the world.Energy fuels also became the largest imported primary products.Based on the changing trend of structural entropy and main market share,the analysis showed that the stable supply of China’s energy diversification was gradually realized.In particular,the cooperation dividend proposed by the Belt and Road initiative became an important turning point and a strong support for the expansion of China’s energy market diversification pattern and guarantee of energy security.展开更多
Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network ...Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network which takes the countries as nodes and takes the trade relations as edges.The networked mining and evolution analysis can provide important references for the research on trade relations among the B&R countries and the formulation of trade policy.This paper researches and discusses the construction,statistical analysis,top networks and stability of the crude oil trade network between the B&R countries from 2001 to 2020 from the perspectives of Geo-Computation for Social Sciences(GCSS)and spatial interaction.Firstly,evolutions of out-degree,in-degree,out-strength and in-strength of the top 10 countries in the crude oil trade network are computed and analyzed.Secondly,the top network method is used to explore the evolution characteristics of hierarchical structures.And finally,the sequential evolution characteristics of the crude oil trade network stability are analyzed utilizing the network stability measure method based on the trade relationship autocorrelation function.The analysis results show that Russia has the largest out-degree and out-strength,and China has the largest in-degree and in-strength.The crude oil trade volume of the top 10 import and export networks between 2001—2020 accounts for over 90%of the total trade volume of the crude oil trade network,and the proportion remains relatively stable.However,the stability of the network showed strong fluctuations in 2009,2012 and 2014,which may be closely related to major international events in these years,which could furtherly be used to build a correlation model between network volatility and major events.This paper explores how to construct and analyze the spatial interaction network of crude oil trade and can provide references for trade relations research and trade policy formulation of B&R countries.展开更多
The risk points in the credit guarantee network of steel trade enterprises were identified by using the network analysis method in this paper. Firstly, the formation and operation mechanism of steel trade credit guara...The risk points in the credit guarantee network of steel trade enterprises were identified by using the network analysis method in this paper. Firstly, the formation and operation mechanism of steel trade credit guarantee network was analyzed.Secondly,a guarantee network was established to analyze the related network structure indexes based on the mutual guarantee data of 83 enterprises in a steel trade market. These indexes included centrality,honest broker,and structural hole. The results suggest that network analysis method can be used to find out the risk points of the guarantee network. Additionally,some recommendations are brought forth to reduce or prevent future crises.展开更多
Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY ...Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.展开更多
With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020,this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China’s global supply chains.Our rese...With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020,this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China’s global supply chains.Our research finds that first,most global supply-chain-vulnerable products are from technology-intensive sectors.For advanced economies,their supply chain vulnerabilities are primarily exposed to political and economic alliances.In comparison,developing economies are more dependent on regional communities.Second,China has a significant export advantage with over 80%of highly vulnerable intermediate inputs relying on imports of high-end electrical,mechanical and chemical products from advanced economies or their multinational companies.China also relies on developing economies for the import of some resource products.Third,during the trade frictions from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic,there was a significant reduction in the supply chain vulnerabilities of China and the US for critical products compared with other products,which reflects a shift in the layout of critical product supply chains to ensure not just efficiency but security.China should address supply chain vulnerabilities by bolstering supply-side weaknesses,diversifying import sources,and promoting international coordination and cooperation.展开更多
Both farmers and traders benefit from trade networking, which is crucial for the local economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these networks operate, and how they can be managed more effectively. Througho...Both farmers and traders benefit from trade networking, which is crucial for the local economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these networks operate, and how they can be managed more effectively. Throughout this study, we examine the economic networks formed between farmers and traders through the trade of food products. These networks are analyzed from the perspective of their structure and the factors that influence their development. Using data from 18 farmers and 15 traders, we applied exponential random graph models. The results of our study showed that connectivity, Popularity Spread, activity spread, good transportation systems, and high yields all affected the development of networks. Therefore, farmers’ productivity and high market demand can contribute to local food-crop trade. The network was not affected by reciprocity, open markets, proximity to locations, or trade experience of actors. Policy makers should consider these five factors when formulating policies for local food-crop trade. Additionally, local actors should be encouraged to use these factors to improve their network development. However, it is important to note that these factors alone cannot guarantee success. Policy makers and actors must also consider other factors such as legal frameworks, economic policies, and resource availability. Our approach can be used in future research to determine how traders and farmers can enhance productivity and profit in West Africa. This study addresses a research gap by examining factors influencing local food trade in a developing country.展开更多
As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its developmen...As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.展开更多
"Ensuring stability in foreign trade"and"ensuring food security"are essential parts of China's"six priorities"and"stability in six areas".Based on the data of bilateral food..."Ensuring stability in foreign trade"and"ensuring food security"are essential parts of China's"six priorities"and"stability in six areas".Based on the data of bilateral food trade between countries during 1996-2018,using descriptive statistical analysis and social network analysis methods,this paper analyzed the changes of China's trade position in the world food trade network.It reached the following results.(i)China's position in the trade network has undergone a phased process of"remarkable improvement-continuous fluctuation-significant decline-steady growth".(ii)Export participation is better than import participation,the gap between trade export strength and import strength is widening,and the effective scale and constraint index gradually improve.(iii)The change of China's position in the food trade network is affected by geographical,economic,institutional and cultural factors.In view of these findings,it is recommended to improve node centrality,enhance network participation,improve network interconnection,and prevent international market risks,so as to better deal with the complex international environment.展开更多
Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-exp...Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-export after value-added return.Ownership-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of territory-based gains from trade after further deducting the trade in value added(TVA) realized through the inflow of foreign factors.By creating a multicountry input and output model,this paper calculates the territory-based gains from trade,ownership-based gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's export,as well as valueadded return and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's import.This paper has arrived at the following conclusions:behind China's status as the largest goods exporting country in the world,most of Chinese exports contribute to the gains of foreign countries;value addition for foreign countries realized through China's export and value-added return realized through China's import mostly come from Taiwan region,Japan and South Korea in East Asia;a considerable part of gains from trade for the United States realized through China-US trade is achieved through indirect trade.展开更多
Research and development and popularization of the internet and other information technologies have accelerated the development rate of Chinese e-commerce industry while at the same time, bringing forward the arrival ...Research and development and popularization of the internet and other information technologies have accelerated the development rate of Chinese e-commerce industry while at the same time, bringing forward the arrival of the network economy era. Therefore, a study on the economy and trade model under the network economy era shall be conducted for a higher level of Chinese international economy and trade. In view of this, this paper mainly provides a brief overview of the network economy, and deeply analyzes both the positive and negative impacts of the network economy on the international economy and trade. Thus, on this basis, a deep study on specific ways of optimizing the international economy and trade under the background of the network economy has been carried out to further raise the development level of Chinese international economy and trade with the development guarantee for Chinese national economy.展开更多
The complex and volatile international landscape has significantly impacted global grain supply security. This study uses a complex network analysis model to examine the evolution and trends of the global major grain ...The complex and volatile international landscape has significantly impacted global grain supply security. This study uses a complex network analysis model to examine the evolution and trends of the global major grain trade from 1990 to 2020, focusing on network topology, centrality ranking, and community structure. There are three major findings. First, the global major grain trade network has expanded in scale, with a growing emphasis on diversification and balance. During the study period, the United States, Canada, China, and Brazil were the core nodes of the network. Grain-exporting countries were mainly situated in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, and importing countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. Second, a significant increase in the number of high centrality countries with high export capacity occurred, benefiting from natural advantages such as fertile land and favorable climates. Third, the main global grain trade network is divided into four communities, with the Americas-Europe community being the largest and most widespread. The formation of the community pattern was influenced by geographic proximity, driven by the core exporting countries. Therefore, the world needs to enhance the existing trade model, promote the multi-polarization of the grain trade network, and establish a global vision for the future community. Countries and regions should participate actively in global grain trade security governance and institutional reform, expand trade links with other countries, and optimize import and export policies to reduce trade risks.展开更多
The complex network research paradigm of statistical physics and graph theory provides a new perspective for the study of international trade. This paper introduces an improved crisis diffusion threshold model to simu...The complex network research paradigm of statistical physics and graph theory provides a new perspective for the study of international trade. This paper introduces an improved crisis diffusion threshold model to simulate the cascading failure caused by the breakdown of trade relations. It is found that the breakdown of relations between specific countries is more likely to form a chain reaction, which leads to the collapse of global trade. These results highlight the important position of the European Union, the United States and Japan in the international trade system, and play a positive role in promoting the development of the world economy.展开更多
With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology,network trade has emerged and broken through the traditional trade boundaries in the rapidly developing information technology.Therefore,with the a...With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology,network trade has emerged and broken through the traditional trade boundaries in the rapidly developing information technology.Therefore,with the advent of the information age,network trade has had a series of impacts on China’s economy,which has given wings to the take-off of China’s economy,but also made the development of China’s economy face a new environment and new challenges.Based on this,this paper first analyzes the connotation of network trade,and analyzes the impact of the network trade era on China’s economy.Through such a study,it aims to make China better seize the opportunities of the times and meet the challenges of the times in the process of promoting social and economic development,so as to achieve a good and rapid development of the national economy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)“Research on Collaborative Innovation and Global Value Chain Upgrading in Manufacturing”(Grant No.23CJL019)“Research on the Advantages of Ultra-Large-Scale Market and the Construction of Modern Industrial System”(Grant No.23&ZD041).
文摘International trade research has long sought to investigate how manufacturers can upgrade within global value chains and escape the“low-end trap”.This paper examines how collaborative innovation can facilitate this ascent,using an undirected weighted network of joint patent applications and firm-level data.By analyzing the network’s structural characteristics and its evolution,we explore the mechanisms through which collaboration drives the rise of manufacturing enterprises within global value chains.Our findings show that:(1)China’s rapidly expanding collaborative innovation network features a distinct“core-periphery”structure,with leading firms,universities,and government research institutions at its center.(2)By strengthening market power and enabling firms to take on more advanced production,collaborative innovation contributes to a higher domestic value-added rate in exports.(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of collaborative innovation on moving up the value chain is particularly evident for firms with strong production and technology absorption capabilities,those positioned lower in the value chain,and those facing fewer trade barriers.
基金Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program,No.2019QZKK1007National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42130508。
文摘This research aimed to understand supply and demand in the global nickel market from a product chain perspective. Accordingly, we established an extensive time-series database for the nickel trade network and employed network analysis methods to explore the dynamics and shifts in the global nickel trade network. The results are as follows: first, refined nickel and nickel semis dominated global nickel trade;second, the interaction between different nickel product networks profoundly affected the global nickel supply chain;third, the global nickel trade network consisted of core-periphery structures exhibiting different degrees of spatial heterogeneity;and fourth, the most connected global backbone structure was in nickel semis, followed by refined nickel, nickel ore, and nickel scrap. Together, trade in these four products constituted an overall network topology characterized by complex forms, a clear hierarchy, and uneven development. We conclude the paper by making several recommendations to secure global nickel supply chains and promote nickel circular economy.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation(Grant No.22YJC910014)the Social Sciences Planning Youth Project of Anhui Province(Grant No.AHSKQ2022D138)the Innovation Development Research Project of Anhui Province(Grant No.2021CX053).
文摘As a global strategic reserve resource,rare earth has been widely used in important industries,such as military equipment and biomedicine.However,existing analyses based solely on the total volume of rare earth trade fail to uncover the underlying competition and dependency dynamics.To address this gap,this paper employs the principles of trade preference and import similarity to construct dependency and competition networks.Complex network analysis is then employed to study the evolution of the global rare earth trade network from 2002 to 2018.The main conclusions are as follows.The global rare earth trade follows the Pareto principle,and the trade network shows a scale-free distribution.China has emerged as the world’s largest importer and exporter of rare earth since 2017.In the dependency network,China has become the most dependent country since 2006.The result of community division shows that China has separated from the American community and formed new communities with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)countries.The United States of America has formed a super-strong community with European and Asian countries.In the competition network,the distribution of competition intensity follows a scale-free distribution.Most countries face low-intensity competition,but there are numerous competing countries.The competition related to China has increased significantly.Lastly,the competition source for the United States of America has shifted from Mexico to China,resulting in China,the USA,and Japan becoming the core participants in the competition network.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42471309)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFA0608504).
文摘The economic potential induced by environmental changes in the Arctic region garnered substantial interest,which positions Arctic trade as a crucial indicator in forecasting the impacts of climate change on the global economy.Nevertheless,attention devoted to the evolving dynamics of trade in the Arctic region remains scarce.In this study,we constructed export trade network in the Arctic region(including Denmark,Finland,Sweden,Norway,Iceland,the Canadian Arctic,the Russian Arctic,Alaska State of the USA,and Greenland)from 1990 to 2019 and analyzed its topology and evolutionary characteristics through complex network theory.We used a structural entropy index based on the distribution of the number of trading partners and the degree of trade concentration to assess export diversity,while we also utilized a revealed comparative advantage index to evaluate product export competitiveness using the share of trade volume of each type of product.The results indicate that the total export trade in the Arctic region increased by 53.4%during 1990-2019,with the most significant growth observed in the exports of chemical products and mineral fuels.The increasing complexity of trade network in the Arctic region resulted in the region’s export destinations no longer being concentrated on a few major countries and regions.The proportion of exports from the Arctic region to Europe decreased by 13.5%,while the proportion of exports from the Arctic region to Asia and North America increased by 6.8%and 3.1%,respectively.The Arctic region exhibited clear distinctions in the range of flows of different products,and its export trade was becoming increasingly diversified.Although differences in comparative advantages between products within individual countries or regions have narrowed,substantial gaps persist.The findings of this study can enhance the comprehensive understanding of the significance and function of Arctic trade activities within the global economy,providing a scientific basis for addressing the associated challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change.
基金Key Project of National Social Sciences Foundation"Transition and Upgrade of China’s Economic Structure under Global Value Chain"(11 AZD 002)Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation"Study on the Promotional Effect of Trade in Services on the Improvement of Status of China’s Yangtze River Delta Region in International Division of Labor"(Approval No.2013 M530809)
文摘Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage （RCA） of China＇s various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach. Results indicate that： （1） the RCA index measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach has underestimated China＇s comparative advantage of labor-intensive sectors but overestimated China＇s comparative advantage in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive manufacturing sectors, giving rise to a serious misjudgment. （2） The RCA measured using value-added approach shows that in the industry chain layout of global manufacturing sectors, China＇s comparative advantage is still concentrated in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors but has signs of weakening; in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive sectors, China is yet to develop any significant comparative advantage; there are signs that China is developing comparative advantage in capital-intensive sectors yet China＇s comparative disadvantage in knowledge and technology-intensive sectors has no significant tendency to improve. This result not only helps correct the misjudgment of China＇s competitiveness in manufacturing sectors based on conventional aggregate accounting approach but offers important policy implications for setting strategic directions and policies for China＇s manufacturing transition and upgrade.
基金supported by the State Key Laboratory of Technology and Equipment for Defense against Power System Operational Risks Program(grant number SGNR0000KJJS2302139).
文摘Microgrids (MGs) and active distribution networks (ADNs) are important platforms for distributed energy resource (DER) consumption. The increasing penetration of DERs has motivated the development ADNs coupled with MGs. This paper proposes a distributedco-optimization method for peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and network operation for an ADN integrated with multiple microgrids(MMGs). A framework that optimizes P2P energy trading among MMGs and ADN operations was first established. Subsequently, anenergy management model that aims to minimize the operation and energy trading costs was constructed for each MG. Accordingly, theMMGs’ cooperative game model was established based on Nash bargaining theory to incentivize each stakeholder to participate in P2Penergy trading, and a distributed solution method based on the alternating direction method of multipliers was developed. Moreover, analgorithm that adjusts the amount of energy trading between the ADN and MG is proposed to ensure safe operation of the distributionnetwork. With the communication between the MG and ADN, the MMGs’ P2P trading and ADN operations are optimized in a coordinated manner. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted to verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金CAS Priority Research Program,No.XDA20010102National Social Science Foundation of China,No.17VDL008
文摘Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants＇ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） is not only China＇s new action to drive its open and global develoPment, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, the topological relationship between the this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community （South Asia-West Asia）. Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Ger- many-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topo- logical analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.
基金financially supported by the MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences, China (20YJCZH057)the Hubei Province Social Science Fund General Project, China (2021147)the Xiangyang City Science and Technology Planning Project, Hubei Province, China (2021rkx04)
文摘The production and trade of primary products had a growing impact on the economic security of all countries and regions,and the strategic position of these products in the global trade network was becoming increasingly prominent.Based on complex network theory,this paper explored the spatial pattern and complex structural evolution of the global primary product trade network(GPPTN)during 1985-2015 by using index methods,such as centrality,Sankey diagram,and structure entropy,focusing on the diversified spatial structure of China’s import and export markets for primary products(with exceptions of Taiwan of China,Hong Kong of China,and Macao of China due to a lack of data)and their geographical implications for China’s energy security.The research offered the following key findings.The GPPTN showed an obvious spatial heterogeneity pattern,and the area of import consumption was more concentrated;however,the overall trend was decentralized.The trade center of gravity shifted eastwards and reflected the rise of emerging markets.The overall flow of the GPPTN was from west to east and from south to north.In terms of the community detection of the GPPTN,North America,Europe,and Asia increasingly presented an unbalanced“tripartite confrontation”.China’s exports of primary products were mainly concentrated in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and other peripheral regions of Asia,and its imports undergone a major transformation,gradually expanding from the peripheral regions of Asia to Africa,the Middle East,Latin America,and other parts of the world.Energy fuels also became the largest imported primary products.Based on the changing trend of structural entropy and main market share,the analysis showed that the stable supply of China’s energy diversification was gradually realized.In particular,the cooperation dividend proposed by the Belt and Road initiative became an important turning point and a strong support for the expansion of China’s energy market diversification pattern and guarantee of energy security.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171448)Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,Ministry of Nature Resources(No.2020NGCMZD03)。
文摘Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network which takes the countries as nodes and takes the trade relations as edges.The networked mining and evolution analysis can provide important references for the research on trade relations among the B&R countries and the formulation of trade policy.This paper researches and discusses the construction,statistical analysis,top networks and stability of the crude oil trade network between the B&R countries from 2001 to 2020 from the perspectives of Geo-Computation for Social Sciences(GCSS)and spatial interaction.Firstly,evolutions of out-degree,in-degree,out-strength and in-strength of the top 10 countries in the crude oil trade network are computed and analyzed.Secondly,the top network method is used to explore the evolution characteristics of hierarchical structures.And finally,the sequential evolution characteristics of the crude oil trade network stability are analyzed utilizing the network stability measure method based on the trade relationship autocorrelation function.The analysis results show that Russia has the largest out-degree and out-strength,and China has the largest in-degree and in-strength.The crude oil trade volume of the top 10 import and export networks between 2001—2020 accounts for over 90%of the total trade volume of the crude oil trade network,and the proportion remains relatively stable.However,the stability of the network showed strong fluctuations in 2009,2012 and 2014,which may be closely related to major international events in these years,which could furtherly be used to build a correlation model between network volatility and major events.This paper explores how to construct and analyze the spatial interaction network of crude oil trade and can provide references for trade relations research and trade policy formulation of B&R countries.
基金Social Science Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.10YJA910002)
文摘The risk points in the credit guarantee network of steel trade enterprises were identified by using the network analysis method in this paper. Firstly, the formation and operation mechanism of steel trade credit guarantee network was analyzed.Secondly,a guarantee network was established to analyze the related network structure indexes based on the mutual guarantee data of 83 enterprises in a steel trade market. These indexes included centrality,honest broker,and structural hole. The results suggest that network analysis method can be used to find out the risk points of the guarantee network. Additionally,some recommendations are brought forth to reduce or prevent future crises.
基金Project of the National Natural Sciences Foundation"Study on Trade,Investment and Industrial Relocation Based on Value Chain for the Belt and Road Initiative"(Approval No.71441039)
文摘Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.
文摘With the trade network analysis method and bilateral country-product level trade data of 2017-2020,this paper reveals the overall characteristics and intrinsic vulnerabilities of China’s global supply chains.Our research finds that first,most global supply-chain-vulnerable products are from technology-intensive sectors.For advanced economies,their supply chain vulnerabilities are primarily exposed to political and economic alliances.In comparison,developing economies are more dependent on regional communities.Second,China has a significant export advantage with over 80%of highly vulnerable intermediate inputs relying on imports of high-end electrical,mechanical and chemical products from advanced economies or their multinational companies.China also relies on developing economies for the import of some resource products.Third,during the trade frictions from 2018 to 2019 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic,there was a significant reduction in the supply chain vulnerabilities of China and the US for critical products compared with other products,which reflects a shift in the layout of critical product supply chains to ensure not just efficiency but security.China should address supply chain vulnerabilities by bolstering supply-side weaknesses,diversifying import sources,and promoting international coordination and cooperation.
文摘Both farmers and traders benefit from trade networking, which is crucial for the local economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these networks operate, and how they can be managed more effectively. Throughout this study, we examine the economic networks formed between farmers and traders through the trade of food products. These networks are analyzed from the perspective of their structure and the factors that influence their development. Using data from 18 farmers and 15 traders, we applied exponential random graph models. The results of our study showed that connectivity, Popularity Spread, activity spread, good transportation systems, and high yields all affected the development of networks. Therefore, farmers’ productivity and high market demand can contribute to local food-crop trade. The network was not affected by reciprocity, open markets, proximity to locations, or trade experience of actors. Policy makers should consider these five factors when formulating policies for local food-crop trade. Additionally, local actors should be encouraged to use these factors to improve their network development. However, it is important to note that these factors alone cannot guarantee success. Policy makers and actors must also consider other factors such as legal frameworks, economic policies, and resource availability. Our approach can be used in future research to determine how traders and farmers can enhance productivity and profit in West Africa. This study addresses a research gap by examining factors influencing local food trade in a developing country.
文摘As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.
基金2021 Graduate Innovation Special Fund Project"Study on Impacts of China's Grain Seed Trade Risk on Grain Supply Security Level"Management Science Project of Jiangxi Province"Study on Measures for Accelerating the Development of Agricultural High-tech Industries in Jiangxi Province".
文摘"Ensuring stability in foreign trade"and"ensuring food security"are essential parts of China's"six priorities"and"stability in six areas".Based on the data of bilateral food trade between countries during 1996-2018,using descriptive statistical analysis and social network analysis methods,this paper analyzed the changes of China's trade position in the world food trade network.It reached the following results.(i)China's position in the trade network has undergone a phased process of"remarkable improvement-continuous fluctuation-significant decline-steady growth".(ii)Export participation is better than import participation,the gap between trade export strength and import strength is widening,and the effective scale and constraint index gradually improve.(iii)The change of China's position in the food trade network is affected by geographical,economic,institutional and cultural factors.In view of these findings,it is recommended to improve node centrality,enhance network participation,improve network interconnection,and prevent international market risks,so as to better deal with the complex international environment.
基金the outcome of major program of the National Social Sciences Foundation Research on the Upgraded Objectives and Strategic Innovation for the Transformation and Development of Major Trading Nations(Grant No.13&ZD048)
文摘Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-export after value-added return.Ownership-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of territory-based gains from trade after further deducting the trade in value added(TVA) realized through the inflow of foreign factors.By creating a multicountry input and output model,this paper calculates the territory-based gains from trade,ownership-based gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's export,as well as valueadded return and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's import.This paper has arrived at the following conclusions:behind China's status as the largest goods exporting country in the world,most of Chinese exports contribute to the gains of foreign countries;value addition for foreign countries realized through China's export and value-added return realized through China's import mostly come from Taiwan region,Japan and South Korea in East Asia;a considerable part of gains from trade for the United States realized through China-US trade is achieved through indirect trade.
文摘Research and development and popularization of the internet and other information technologies have accelerated the development rate of Chinese e-commerce industry while at the same time, bringing forward the arrival of the network economy era. Therefore, a study on the economy and trade model under the network economy era shall be conducted for a higher level of Chinese international economy and trade. In view of this, this paper mainly provides a brief overview of the network economy, and deeply analyzes both the positive and negative impacts of the network economy on the international economy and trade. Thus, on this basis, a deep study on specific ways of optimizing the international economy and trade under the background of the network economy has been carried out to further raise the development level of Chinese international economy and trade with the development guarantee for Chinese national economy.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271313)the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Innovation Project(CAAS-ASTIP2021-AII)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund,China(JBYW-AII-2022-06,JBYWAII-2022-40)。
文摘The complex and volatile international landscape has significantly impacted global grain supply security. This study uses a complex network analysis model to examine the evolution and trends of the global major grain trade from 1990 to 2020, focusing on network topology, centrality ranking, and community structure. There are three major findings. First, the global major grain trade network has expanded in scale, with a growing emphasis on diversification and balance. During the study period, the United States, Canada, China, and Brazil were the core nodes of the network. Grain-exporting countries were mainly situated in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, and importing countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. Second, a significant increase in the number of high centrality countries with high export capacity occurred, benefiting from natural advantages such as fertile land and favorable climates. Third, the main global grain trade network is divided into four communities, with the Americas-Europe community being the largest and most widespread. The formation of the community pattern was influenced by geographic proximity, driven by the core exporting countries. Therefore, the world needs to enhance the existing trade model, promote the multi-polarization of the grain trade network, and establish a global vision for the future community. Countries and regions should participate actively in global grain trade security governance and institutional reform, expand trade links with other countries, and optimize import and export policies to reduce trade risks.
文摘The complex network research paradigm of statistical physics and graph theory provides a new perspective for the study of international trade. This paper introduces an improved crisis diffusion threshold model to simulate the cascading failure caused by the breakdown of trade relations. It is found that the breakdown of relations between specific countries is more likely to form a chain reaction, which leads to the collapse of global trade. These results highlight the important position of the European Union, the United States and Japan in the international trade system, and play a positive role in promoting the development of the world economy.
文摘With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology,network trade has emerged and broken through the traditional trade boundaries in the rapidly developing information technology.Therefore,with the advent of the information age,network trade has had a series of impacts on China’s economy,which has given wings to the take-off of China’s economy,but also made the development of China’s economy face a new environment and new challenges.Based on this,this paper first analyzes the connotation of network trade,and analyzes the impact of the network trade era on China’s economy.Through such a study,it aims to make China better seize the opportunities of the times and meet the challenges of the times in the process of promoting social and economic development,so as to achieve a good and rapid development of the national economy.
